So W1 we have no trend with one up and one down, were consolidating within the last impulse up so I'm looking for a EW corrective structure. Is the corrective structure over? No I don't think so when I look at the D1 chart, price action simply doesn't fit with a down that's why I'm looking at the next possible EW corrective structure which is the running flat to complete the W1 B wave.
What if I'm wrong and the correction down is over and were going up to break the top, there is a slight chance with the W1 bull hidden divergence being confirmed on the D1? All good, I'm looking for buy's and like I said where D1 wave C end's is anyone's guess, Price action will tell me where the D1 C up could be coming to an end!
What if I'm wrong and price turn's down from here and we get a lower low on D1? All good, I'm looking for buy's on the lower time frames so I probably wont get a buy signal and if I do take a buy signal at worst my SL get's taken out and I take a small hit, that's trading and I don't need to win every trade to be profitable. Even if the D1 low get's broken the W1 structure does not change, we will still get at least the D1 C wave up so I have no doubt I will more than make up for the small hit or maybe two when I catch the next impulse!
If I'm right I have the advantage of getting into the buy, taking profit on sign's of a reversal of the expected running flat trading one piece at a time while all the purma bull's are crying manipulation!
This W1 chart has all the hall marks of a possible correction with a running flat in B, could the structure change into an expanding flat in wave B? Absolutely, no one knows where D1 wave C will end and we don't have to know as I'm not trading the W1 or even the D1 chart's. I only want the possible direction of the higher time frame charts so I can look for buy setup's in this case on the H1 and lower time frames, I'm a trader not a purma bull investor!
Because this is long term term analysis I want to touch on a some of the difference's between a trader and an longer term inverter, pro's and con's.
A trader doesn't fall in love with their position, they trade one piece at a time long or short with clear SL, TP and usually with a risk reward ratio above 1:1. A trader will usually enter the market on H1 or below setup's occasionally taking a H4 setup. The biggest hurdle most traders will face is patience. Over trading is a big problem with new trader's. It's natural, their keen to get into every setup they see even whilst there losing money instead of picking just the one best setup out of a bunch of potential setups, less is more you will find. This is something every successful trader has had to overcome, if your losing money or breaking even your more than likely over trading unless of cause you can't analyze the chart's correctly and have no system.
A long term investor isn't all that different from a trader, the biggest difference is an investor trade's the higher time frame's, D1 and above therefore uses a much larger SL and has a hell of a lot more patience. They still enter on a H1 setup or lower time frame but they will use the W1, MN high's and low's for the SL before moving to BE or into profit, giving the trade more room to move. What I come across far to often is "investor's" that can't analyze the market themselves, brought into something on rhetoric they have no idea will go up or down then search aimlessly across the web until they find some guru that tells them exactly what they want to hear. Maybe it's something as ridiculous as markets trend up long term so they add to losing position's, I wonder how many Lehman brother's investors were told that and believed it before the morning they lost the lot. If it's false rhetoric like this that got you into a market position and you still can't analyze the market yourself, finding possible structure's along with reading price action you will need to learn how to trade on a demo account or a small live account with money you can afford to lose.
No one should trade anyone else's trade idea's unless it lines up with their own analysis, many can talk the talk but few can walk the walk, heaven forbid your purma bull guru give five trade idea's in a row telling you to buy and keep on adding to losing position's " the market trend's up longer term" and the very next week they come out with a new idea boasting how many trade they have lost in a row, how it's a good thing and all sort's of rhetoric. Mate, I couldn't make this stuff up! LOL
This is a longer term view so I will be updating this idea as price plays out on lower TF's with potential setups!
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My new D1 analysis is the same structure as my previous D1 idea from 6mth back. My analysis never changes until it's invalidated or I see structural change and I simply see no structural change. The only thing that's changed since my last D1 idea 6mth back is that the B wave is complete as I was looking for in that idea. We got a solid break of the B wave structure, I'm looking for buy setup's only at this stage. BTC D1 Wave C up, Running or Expanding flat. Checkout the idea detail's and all the update's to get up to speed thank's.
Do you believe in a scenario were an accumulation phase ( 2500$ - 1700$ ) before going higher to 7200- +8500 ?
H1 wave C down can end at any moment, it could turn up from here for a running flat or price break below internal wave A then go up for the expanding flat but either way it's more upside I believe.
For me to turn bearish and start looking for short's I would need to see the red line at the low in the pic. to be broken and I just don't see that happening with the current H1 structure I'm looking at.