BTC is in wave 4 of 3 or wave 4 of 5 (late night ramblings)
Note: I am an amateur. Feel free to pick apart the wave count.
My daughter is puking every twenty minutes...it's 3 am...i'm on puke bucket patrol...soooo i thought, let's count some elliott waves in between!
5 waves identified to get us to 2017
is it safe to assume we have already done a market cycle? i don't have any chart data for this...
historically i know it went something like this...
btc wave 1 of 1...
pennies to $30
wave 2 of 1
30 to $2
wave 3 of 1
$2 to $250
wave 4 of 1
$250 to 60
Wave 5 of 1 $60 to $1100
(commence multiyear consolidation)
Seems probable there was a market cycle before the run up to $30...but without the data, I am going to consider that A market cycle ended after we reached $1000. For now let's not concern ourselves if this is a macro wave 3 or macro wave 5.
Now let's identify the sub waves of this macro 3 (or macro 5)
so we completed a 5 wave cycle to get to 2017!
Let's call that 1 of 3.
and through 2017...
3 of 3.
So where are we going after this wave 4?
if we assume a bottom of 8k (which of course we can recalculate once we know the ACTUAL bottom of wave 4. but that is a popular buying spot so lets go with it), a 1 to 1 extension of the 3rd mini wave would put us at $26,600. a 1.618 extension would be $38,000.
i'd suggest these as likely targets assuming the fundamentals on btc don't change much.
-lots of excitement about cryptocurrencies in general (btc is meh)
-high fees
-no LN yet
Now...if LN is released and it's working and people love it...we can look at the 2.618 extension and higher I suspect. Sell 50% of your alts for btc at that point.
My daughter is puking every twenty minutes...it's 3 am...i'm on puke bucket patrol...soooo i thought, let's count some elliott waves in between!
5 waves identified to get us to 2017
is it safe to assume we have already done a market cycle? i don't have any chart data for this...
historically i know it went something like this...
btc wave 1 of 1...
pennies to $30
wave 2 of 1
30 to $2
wave 3 of 1
$2 to $250
wave 4 of 1
$250 to 60
Wave 5 of 1 $60 to $1100
(commence multiyear consolidation)
Seems probable there was a market cycle before the run up to $30...but without the data, I am going to consider that A market cycle ended after we reached $1000. For now let's not concern ourselves if this is a macro wave 3 or macro wave 5.
Now let's identify the sub waves of this macro 3 (or macro 5)
so we completed a 5 wave cycle to get to 2017!
Let's call that 1 of 3.
and through 2017...
3 of 3.
So where are we going after this wave 4?
if we assume a bottom of 8k (which of course we can recalculate once we know the ACTUAL bottom of wave 4. but that is a popular buying spot so lets go with it), a 1 to 1 extension of the 3rd mini wave would put us at $26,600. a 1.618 extension would be $38,000.
i'd suggest these as likely targets assuming the fundamentals on btc don't change much.
-lots of excitement about cryptocurrencies in general (btc is meh)
-high fees
-no LN yet
Now...if LN is released and it's working and people love it...we can look at the 2.618 extension and higher I suspect. Sell 50% of your alts for btc at that point.
Comment:
in my pictures i called it macro 5. in the notes i decided macro 3. I can't decide!
Comment:
notice I didn't use the pitchfork but clearly my trendline drawing was influenced by the log pitchfork idea. You can see the Wave 3 of 1 that burst through it in the earlier market cycle. It has done the exact same thing in this market cycle! That bodes well for FOMO targets.
Comment:
It appears @michaelvandepoppe has the same EW count. He assumes the first macro EW is wave 1, and therefore this is a 4 of 3 right now.
Exciting times!
Exciting times!