Hi guys! such a manipulated market, now is! i have been trading of course, not writing for a while. very important day, since bitfinex maintenance coming up, we never know where the movement would go. for now, i think upside movement for bulls is valid only until october 8~9th, they have chance to go over 7k. if they fail we will see a crush downwards, which will not look good.
this is the daily chart here. we keep getting caught on bear div at 6800, coming down not winning over it. the problem is bulls had a good chance for upside movement at sep 30th, and october 1st, but they lost their chance! the ichimoku clouds were thin then,however they got resisted by the downtrend lines. now btc candle confirmed a black crow candle pattern, which, is NOT GOOD!
normally, at black crow candle patterns, it confirms it and show some upside movement after that. the bulls have some chance until october 8~9th, which is only 3~4days from now. if they manage to stay above 6500/6600, they still have some chance, but if they get crumbled downside it will be dangerous. we risk going to low 6k or under then.
so the point of the game is october 8~9th. if we stay below 66/65, you need to sell all your positions.
if we do stay above these levels, we need to see if we manage to break above the downtrend line to 67/68, if that does not happen it is also a sign of downwards movement. so check lines at this chart, we might see heavy movement either to up, or down.
6100 double bottom effect is over for now, it is not powerful enough to sustain this price now. money flow, is at its top levels, showing bearish divergence. problem i see is that, monthly 20MA is now at 6400. bulls CANNOT go below that level, a moving average that has kept BTC bullish for over 3 years now. so, in order to shoot higher, they need to hit bottom, make healthy retracement, but THEY CANNOT DO THAT! because that would mean bearishness! so price tightens, no strength...which, might lead to heavy drop, unless the whales show confidence and push really high at very short period.
NO MINGLING AROUND 64~66 IS ALLOWED NOW FOR BULLS, they need to shoot higher then 6800 to regain bullishness!
weekly basis, 21/50 ema deadcross still in play, and, if we close below 6570 on october 8th, that will confirm a black crow candle pattern, which will be VERY bearish. we are still maintaining a falling wedge pattern, which can take us to 5k.
today, with a spurt to 6640/6650, we almost touched the resistance line. we need to push higher unless we risk big drop.
for today, trading is very risky, shorts and longs altogether because of the maintenance of bitfinex. we would get final confirmation of the market in coming days, at 8th~9th, if we go long or go short. before then, scalping can work, but do not risk swing trade. for now, bearish market overall in indicators tell that we would see a heavy drop, but anything can change.
the most important time for btc nearing! i wish that btc finally escapes the bear market. it is really making me a paranoid, for staying in this trading range for too long. lets hope this bear market is done this month.
trading plans are
1. open short
i have already opened shorts at 6613(bitmex), i would stoploss this at same price if btc comes up high.
do not open at 65 levels now.
2. open longs
6500/6520 for scalping.
-->i will update in comments for trading short term short/longs.
happy trading!
this is the daily chart here. we keep getting caught on bear div at 6800, coming down not winning over it. the problem is bulls had a good chance for upside movement at sep 30th, and october 1st, but they lost their chance! the ichimoku clouds were thin then,however they got resisted by the downtrend lines. now btc candle confirmed a black crow candle pattern, which, is NOT GOOD!
normally, at black crow candle patterns, it confirms it and show some upside movement after that. the bulls have some chance until october 8~9th, which is only 3~4days from now. if they manage to stay above 6500/6600, they still have some chance, but if they get crumbled downside it will be dangerous. we risk going to low 6k or under then.
so the point of the game is october 8~9th. if we stay below 66/65, you need to sell all your positions.
if we do stay above these levels, we need to see if we manage to break above the downtrend line to 67/68, if that does not happen it is also a sign of downwards movement. so check lines at this chart, we might see heavy movement either to up, or down.
6100 double bottom effect is over for now, it is not powerful enough to sustain this price now. money flow, is at its top levels, showing bearish divergence. problem i see is that, monthly 20MA is now at 6400. bulls CANNOT go below that level, a moving average that has kept BTC bullish for over 3 years now. so, in order to shoot higher, they need to hit bottom, make healthy retracement, but THEY CANNOT DO THAT! because that would mean bearishness! so price tightens, no strength...which, might lead to heavy drop, unless the whales show confidence and push really high at very short period.
NO MINGLING AROUND 64~66 IS ALLOWED NOW FOR BULLS, they need to shoot higher then 6800 to regain bullishness!
weekly basis, 21/50 ema deadcross still in play, and, if we close below 6570 on october 8th, that will confirm a black crow candle pattern, which will be VERY bearish. we are still maintaining a falling wedge pattern, which can take us to 5k.
today, with a spurt to 6640/6650, we almost touched the resistance line. we need to push higher unless we risk big drop.
for today, trading is very risky, shorts and longs altogether because of the maintenance of bitfinex. we would get final confirmation of the market in coming days, at 8th~9th, if we go long or go short. before then, scalping can work, but do not risk swing trade. for now, bearish market overall in indicators tell that we would see a heavy drop, but anything can change.
the most important time for btc nearing! i wish that btc finally escapes the bear market. it is really making me a paranoid, for staying in this trading range for too long. lets hope this bear market is done this month.
trading plans are
1. open short
i have already opened shorts at 6613(bitmex), i would stoploss this at same price if btc comes up high.
do not open at 65 levels now.
2. open longs
6500/6520 for scalping.
-->i will update in comments for trading short term short/longs.
happy trading!
Comment:
nitfinex maintenance started 20 minutes ago, but expected upwards movement in the pennant structure. just entered shorts at 6588 again. should have shown action from the start of the maintenance, but, nothing happening now. still we can go higher, but expecting something from the maintenance, i don't think so important for now.
Comment:
if we do not go over 6.6~6.8k, for good, until october 8~9th, i believe the brown line can happen, which will drag the market into another panic, we all do not want. you can open short at 6600~6650(bitfinex), with stoploss at 6680. i am already in shorts, which i do not really want to.
Comment:
short term. btc might be making this kind of bull flag. i think you can open long at 6550~6555(bitfinex price, bitmex will be lower like 6510~6520), target will be 6600~6650, previous high. if we manage to go over 6660, we can hold for 67/68 area, but at the moment little unlikely. let's see.
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btc might be creating an inverse h&s pattern, which, we can assume we would go to 6700~6770. open long position at 6500~6540 level, stoploss is under 6500(bitfinex). target is 6640, if we go over 6700~6770 is the name of the game. risky bet, but just betting on the pattern that its creating. it might only go to 6640, so we need to sell right away if that happens.
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let me clarify this little scalping trading. 1. open long bitfinex(6540~6580), bitmex(6500~6540) 2.target-1 bitfinex(6640), bitmex(6595~6610) target2 bitfinex(6770), bitmex(6680~6720) 3. stoploss 6500(bitfinex), 6460(bitmex). 6640 can be the end of this inverse h&s, let's hope it can go up more. you can sell 40~50% at least at 6640 level. it might just break down, so be careful. very risky trade at the moment.
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www.tradingview.com/x/01ZVRYfq/why is btc in such stagnation? you can see three levels of bottoming/uprise from sep. we had 6100, double bottom, with good bull div. problem is, when we went to 6300 we didn't make a such good bull divergernce, with rsi slightly down. next at 6400 level, we double bottomed but rsi went down more, which indicate not much buyers at even 6400 level. we have the downtrend line right in front of us, i expect a heavy drop next week. but let's see.
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www.tradingview.com/x/T2LGZMZ7/oops sorry. comment above, see this chart.
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oh no wrong again. don't care about the wrong comments and urls's above. for the bull div chart explained above, let me write the same comment once more. why btc in such stagnation? you can see three levels of bottoming/uprise from sep. we had 6100, double bottom, with good bull div. problem is, when we went to 6300 we didn't make a such good bull divergernce, with rsi slightly down. next at 6400 level, we double bottomed but rsi went down more, which indicate not much buyers at even 6400 level. we have the downtrend line right in front of us, i expect a heavy drop next week. but let's see.
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Target reached for longs.target1 6640,target2 is 6770 but bitfinex reached 6740 a little short. I sold my longs at target 1 at 6613,bitmex. Price came back inside the descending triangle lets see now.
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moment of truth nearing. if we close below 6600, like 6550~6580, we could see hell. in coming daily close if we are in the yellow area, we can try long, if we are below at blue, we can short.
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even if we fall, i think bear market is almost done at least for this year. we touched supports two times, we might need one more below. however, we will see a big rebound. alts are cheap, it might get cheaper, now is cheap too, anyway i do believe this falling wedge would work, if prices come down. i believe after touch of 5k, we can spurt up to 9k or even higher this year.
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i do see a format of inverse hs on 1hr frame.you can go open long, not much,but try to see if it breaks out above.we can sell it at daily close if we do not penetrate 6600.1hr 4hr stoch is oversold,so maybe a chance to break upwards.stoploss your longs at current price if coming daily close is below 6570~6580.
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final moments have arrived guys. from today, to tomorrow. blue box? or yellow box? 50:50 chance. stay out, if you do not have conviction.volatility incoming. good luck.
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check yellow box for long position. targets are two green boxs.