The inverse head & shoulder seems legit per wave counts but imo , it did not form the right shoulder correctly. Also there is a in its place, which is strange. If not mistaken, this is likely a false pattern. Maybe the previous C wave was incomplete or maybe the market fundamentals are not good enough to start a wave 5, its unclear. Will need more price info to figure out where the wave count went wrong. My opinion is that we are still going down, and this is based on the long term indicators. The so far is also pretty telling that the market is not ready to recover, and pretty low for a 3rd wave.
I would advise caution on a long term swing/investment here. We may have 1 more try to touch $9200 and complete the but based on the current structure... unlikely. Market seems exhausted. Once $8,000 breaks the structure for the uptrend will break and the market will be seeking to test $6,000 or lower. (Expect a lot of panic selling and liquidation for those who bought heavily in this reversal trap) For the long term, I am considering if BTC can fall to $2,500. If you laughed at me before, you might want to rethink. Never be bias and always keep an open mind when trading or investing.
Disclaimer: I have a short open from $8950.
PS: Still wondering if ppl will donate for TA insights or if they will attribute all wins to their own decision. Its optional, I'm just curious thus I have a tip jar.
This has been a pretty fun week and I will be taking time off trading to work on my book. Until the new bottom can be analyzed, we have officially enter uncharted territory. Some reversal expectation from the market is probably the following.
1) Bounce off $7.5k to attempt the formation of another right shoulder, likely a foolish attempt. Expect tons of liquidation on failure.
2) Bounce off $6,000 to attempt a another double bottom on the higher time frame. Might go sideways here for an extended period of time before it give way. But if it bounce hard, maybe... maybe we have the bottom.
3) My first potential bottom reversal is at $4,500 because we have to bounce at some point in the bear market anyway. And we will see how that goes.
Have fun, good luck and enjoy the rest of your weekend. This will be another long trip down.