As mentioned in a previous prediction, the odds of this capitulation were looking very high based on historical technicals. Now that we've reached the assumed targets, what now? Is this the bottom?
I believe if we look at long term moving averages, we have a solid case of a bear market bottom, same for indications like the RSI, Stoch RSI and others. Fundamentals like HODL Waves, miner capitulation, 1yr hodl wave etc all seem to be ok as well.
However I don't believe we can assume a bottom just from these indications. When we look at BTC as the 4 year cycle, with 1-2 year bear markets. It would seem the bottom is too soon. Which doesn't mean we can't be near the bottom. Usually the bear market bottom is formed 1+ year after the bull market ATH, that'd be November-December into early 2023, we're not there yet.
It's possible we get a big bounce, and later come down to these ~20k levels again with maybe a slight moment below.
Though my conclusion is that these prices have to be nearing a bottom, we might see prices near ~12k-15k. But regardless of that possibility existing, buying now for long term is a great moment. Therefor I'm averaging back into Bitcoin at these prices. Never forget that this is the strongest asset, and most growing asset in the world. Assuming it is dead because of it's high volatility is stupid. It surely wasn't dead at it's 2017 ath peak, so why would you assume so now? Now that we're at these prices, take the discount.
As Warren Buffet would say, financial markets is the only store where people run away when there are discounts. Take advantage, stack sats at low prices.
I believe if we look at long term moving averages, we have a solid case of a bear market bottom, same for indications like the RSI, Stoch RSI and others. Fundamentals like HODL Waves, miner capitulation, 1yr hodl wave etc all seem to be ok as well.
However I don't believe we can assume a bottom just from these indications. When we look at BTC as the 4 year cycle, with 1-2 year bear markets. It would seem the bottom is too soon. Which doesn't mean we can't be near the bottom. Usually the bear market bottom is formed 1+ year after the bull market ATH, that'd be November-December into early 2023, we're not there yet.
It's possible we get a big bounce, and later come down to these ~20k levels again with maybe a slight moment below.
Though my conclusion is that these prices have to be nearing a bottom, we might see prices near ~12k-15k. But regardless of that possibility existing, buying now for long term is a great moment. Therefor I'm averaging back into Bitcoin at these prices. Never forget that this is the strongest asset, and most growing asset in the world. Assuming it is dead because of it's high volatility is stupid. It surely wasn't dead at it's 2017 ath peak, so why would you assume so now? Now that we're at these prices, take the discount.
As Warren Buffet would say, financial markets is the only store where people run away when there are discounts. Take advantage, stack sats at low prices.