BTC 2014 & 2018 similarities. Will history repeat itself?
First of all - this is neither a call for a potential Armageddon scenario, nor a shill for BTC hitting its ATH soon. I've just noticed that the current drop has strong similarities with the one of 2014 - so this is a view on a scenario which could play out when history would repeat itself.
Before diving in, keep in mind this quote from Sir John Templeton.
"The investor who says, ‘This time is different,’ when in fact it’s virtually a repeat of an earlier situation, has uttered among the four most costly words in the annals of investing."
Putting the fundamentals aside, we can clearly identify some similarities.
1) The overall structure / price behaviour
2) The 50/200 EMA death cross
3) Price breaking the counter-trendline
4) The 50% Fib being in harmony with the key resistance of the former high and a fresh supply zone
5) The time distance (95 days) from the first lower high after the bull rally to the bottom prior to the counter-trendline break
As mentioned in the chart, I would look out for a bigger corrective structure (in 2014 it has been a bearish flag/wedge). As for now, the upmove that has started around 6.5k shows a clear identifiable five wave structure and might as a whole be a wave A. So consequently this might be followed by a retrace and a further leg to the upside heading towards the 11.5k - 11.7k area - which might be the turning point and the start of a heavy downmove.
If we will get to see a similar Armageddon scenario as in 2014, then $3000 would be the absolute bottom and the beginning of an insane bull run.
Disclaimer: This is an if..then scenario, not a signal, not a shill and not heavy pessimism.
If you like this idea and/or find it interesting, make sure to leave a like! Thanks:)
Bud
Before diving in, keep in mind this quote from Sir John Templeton.
"The investor who says, ‘This time is different,’ when in fact it’s virtually a repeat of an earlier situation, has uttered among the four most costly words in the annals of investing."
Putting the fundamentals aside, we can clearly identify some similarities.
1) The overall structure / price behaviour
2) The 50/200 EMA death cross
3) Price breaking the counter-trendline
4) The 50% Fib being in harmony with the key resistance of the former high and a fresh supply zone
5) The time distance (95 days) from the first lower high after the bull rally to the bottom prior to the counter-trendline break
As mentioned in the chart, I would look out for a bigger corrective structure (in 2014 it has been a bearish flag/wedge). As for now, the upmove that has started around 6.5k shows a clear identifiable five wave structure and might as a whole be a wave A. So consequently this might be followed by a retrace and a further leg to the upside heading towards the 11.5k - 11.7k area - which might be the turning point and the start of a heavy downmove.
If we will get to see a similar Armageddon scenario as in 2014, then $3000 would be the absolute bottom and the beginning of an insane bull run.
Disclaimer: This is an if..then scenario, not a signal, not a shill and not heavy pessimism.
If you like this idea and/or find it interesting, make sure to leave a like! Thanks:)
Bud
Comment:
Expecting the next bullish leg heading towards 11.5k area to start in the coming days. Nothing has changed on the big picture yet. Maximum possible downside space I see is 7.8-7.7k. Additionally, most people on TV are having with their short-term bearish bias a different point of view, which makes me more confident in seeing BTC hitting the 11k area in the next weeks.