As discussed in my previous analysis on both the higher and lower time frame analysis of $BTC, we are currently in what I anticipate to be b of an abc corrective pattern of a higher degree, possibly leading us to as high as $8600 (golden ratio of a of the higher degree), but more likely to the vicinity of $8200.
The argument for this more probable first target at $8200 is based on three elements: There is strong convergence between the 0.5. fib level of a of the higher degree, the 1:1 ratio of A of the lower degree and the 1:1.618 ratio of a in the lowest degree. We thus have plausible converging reasons to believe that $8200 will be reached but that there will be some resistance at that level.
Still: Our second target remains at around $8600, because whilst we will quite likely see selling pressure at $8200, the wick of the move up might actually reach $8600 before being pushed back down. Not only the golden ratio might function as a magnet, also the top of the bear channel gives us some confluence, yet not confidence.
If we keep some positions open until $8600, a relatively tight stop-loss is necessary since we will likely see bearish volume piercing up as we approach the edge of the channel.
If the analysis is correct, we will see one last leg (c) of the higher degree down in the coming weeks - we could be looking at targets somewhere in the vicinity of 5600$ - the higher time frame analysis of this possible short will follow as we approach our targets of the current long.
What remains to be said? There are two relevant invalidation points for the analysis:
The first is a break below the previous low of the 18th of December.
The second is a break of the bear channel to the upside.
Remember to manage your risks and trade safe.
Please share and comment
The argument for this more probable first target at $8200 is based on three elements: There is strong convergence between the 0.5. fib level of a of the higher degree, the 1:1 ratio of A of the lower degree and the 1:1.618 ratio of a in the lowest degree. We thus have plausible converging reasons to believe that $8200 will be reached but that there will be some resistance at that level.
Still: Our second target remains at around $8600, because whilst we will quite likely see selling pressure at $8200, the wick of the move up might actually reach $8600 before being pushed back down. Not only the golden ratio might function as a magnet, also the top of the bear channel gives us some confluence, yet not confidence.
If we keep some positions open until $8600, a relatively tight stop-loss is necessary since we will likely see bearish volume piercing up as we approach the edge of the channel.
If the analysis is correct, we will see one last leg (c) of the higher degree down in the coming weeks - we could be looking at targets somewhere in the vicinity of 5600$ - the higher time frame analysis of this possible short will follow as we approach our targets of the current long.
What remains to be said? There are two relevant invalidation points for the analysis:
The first is a break below the previous low of the 18th of December.
The second is a break of the bear channel to the upside.
Remember to manage your risks and trade safe.
Please share and comment