Man is this Market a RIOT! Really, quite entertaining!
OK so a lot has happened since I last updated on BTC. We've seen a pull back which never happens as BTC value has moved in a straight line and never represented anything close to waves and the boogie bear PTSD has once again taken control of lots of people. Like a puppet master using his ESP while very most likely (in the indicators and price action that I can see) is snoozing away while the eucalyptus eating stoner Koala Bears play Grizzly, giggling and munching out.
As we can see. My most recent ideas of general areas the correction would pivot were a bit too optimistic. So what? Feel free to check back to some of the ideas I've been posting for the last few months to see the abundance of fundamentals I spoke of and and how I believe the apply to the situation of BTC which still has absolute control of the market while exchanges apply solutions to allow alts to be traded on merit and not the parabolic movements of BTC.
As I noted before, when evidence suggested I would update and explain my take and share how I'm responding to these observations.
1st, I'm still incredibly confident in the market overall and panic is about as far from my emotions at this time as I can get. I still see no evidence I should be. Anyone not see the beginning of divergence in the daily chart and the extreme divergence in 12 hour and below? Depending on the next moves of price action, I see a few different potential paths moving forward, all of them Bullish in the larger picture of which dictates my confidence in the market overall. Those potential options are seen above.
I've been chanting anything above the Pink Trend line of Short liquidations where mystery millions of dollars is injected into the market to signal the "no no" zone while weak hands liquidate their holdings and many re-buying higher than they sold at a direct loss and Short sellers lose everything they invested if they were confident in the BTC eat dirt theory to take unmitigated risk. Did everyone forget what happened the last times quite literally 90% + of all TAs on TV suggested BTC was doomed to dump to levels multi million dollar (at least) corporate mining farms would be in the red? How soon we forget! Sentiment of the average Joe had absolutely nothing to do with that move up in the obvious and VERY vocal panic running rampant online at that time.
Moving along, I brought to the attention to everyone here on TV a portion of a correction cycle which I see many often overlook. One which is always there and can take different forms in price actions but often times looks like and M in the end of C wave of a correction. I also shared a recent time in BTC history leading to the ATH where he see direct evidence of this portion of a correction cycle as only one of the 1,000s of times it has happened in various sub wave cycles in BTC history. In order for this portion of the correction to follow the form of the bullish malformation I charted I felt likely, it would need to follow the white trend line which I marked "Opt 1". My confidence in this idea resulted in taking less profits at the top of this wave than I would like at this time however, if I knew all the right moves all the time I'd have another two or three zeros in my portfolio already. I'm more than happy though with the number of zeros I've added and will continue adding while supporting some of the best tech and ideas since the advent of the internet.
I've included two potential wave counts mapping the primary structure of this wave 4 correction since Dec 7th 2017. The Red count would suggest a potential near future low of $7,300 and this pull back being a sub wave 2 of the 1st wave of the final (5th) wave of this cycle and the correction actually ended early April under this scenario while we retrace to the .786 or .618 labeled in the chart. The indicators support this as a potential at this time.
OK so a lot has happened since I last updated on BTC. We've seen a pull back which never happens as BTC value has moved in a straight line and never represented anything close to waves and the boogie bear PTSD has once again taken control of lots of people. Like a puppet master using his ESP while very most likely (in the indicators and price action that I can see) is snoozing away while the eucalyptus eating stoner Koala Bears play Grizzly, giggling and munching out.
As we can see. My most recent ideas of general areas the correction would pivot were a bit too optimistic. So what? Feel free to check back to some of the ideas I've been posting for the last few months to see the abundance of fundamentals I spoke of and and how I believe the apply to the situation of BTC which still has absolute control of the market while exchanges apply solutions to allow alts to be traded on merit and not the parabolic movements of BTC.
As I noted before, when evidence suggested I would update and explain my take and share how I'm responding to these observations.
1st, I'm still incredibly confident in the market overall and panic is about as far from my emotions at this time as I can get. I still see no evidence I should be. Anyone not see the beginning of divergence in the daily chart and the extreme divergence in 12 hour and below? Depending on the next moves of price action, I see a few different potential paths moving forward, all of them Bullish in the larger picture of which dictates my confidence in the market overall. Those potential options are seen above.
I've been chanting anything above the Pink Trend line of Short liquidations where mystery millions of dollars is injected into the market to signal the "no no" zone while weak hands liquidate their holdings and many re-buying higher than they sold at a direct loss and Short sellers lose everything they invested if they were confident in the BTC eat dirt theory to take unmitigated risk. Did everyone forget what happened the last times quite literally 90% + of all TAs on TV suggested BTC was doomed to dump to levels multi million dollar (at least) corporate mining farms would be in the red? How soon we forget! Sentiment of the average Joe had absolutely nothing to do with that move up in the obvious and VERY vocal panic running rampant online at that time.
Moving along, I brought to the attention to everyone here on TV a portion of a correction cycle which I see many often overlook. One which is always there and can take different forms in price actions but often times looks like and M in the end of C wave of a correction. I also shared a recent time in BTC history leading to the ATH where he see direct evidence of this portion of a correction cycle as only one of the 1,000s of times it has happened in various sub wave cycles in BTC history. In order for this portion of the correction to follow the form of the bullish malformation I charted I felt likely, it would need to follow the white trend line which I marked "Opt 1". My confidence in this idea resulted in taking less profits at the top of this wave than I would like at this time however, if I knew all the right moves all the time I'd have another two or three zeros in my portfolio already. I'm more than happy though with the number of zeros I've added and will continue adding while supporting some of the best tech and ideas since the advent of the internet.
I've included two potential wave counts mapping the primary structure of this wave 4 correction since Dec 7th 2017. The Red count would suggest a potential near future low of $7,300 and this pull back being a sub wave 2 of the 1st wave of the final (5th) wave of this cycle and the correction actually ended early April under this scenario while we retrace to the .786 or .618 labeled in the chart. The indicators support this as a potential at this time.
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I'd like to note, this is not financial advice but my observations and perception of the market. It is not to be construed as such and reflects the information I trade and profit on.
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Here is a chart which supports my ideas in the larger cycle which was published as a direct response to some unsubstantiated claims by some of the market "Pros"
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Here is a past chart for reference which is representative of the targets I spoke of above which failed to be realized. I'm adding this here because the supporting indications within it are representative of my continued position of potential and the fact it happens and consideration of this scenario is quite helpful to future considerations.
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Here is a more detailed representation of the ideas I just updated and posted about a month ago before I became more bullish on potential than I expected at the time of this chart. I revert to this position.
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and this one
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As my perceived worst case in the big picture that is^^^
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And here is the chart I promised above for personal tracking of trends so you need not dig through my publications to find it.
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Happy trading everyone!
Trade active:
So, we're looking pretty bullish now. The 1 week closed strong and indicates a reversal to the up and all before retracing to standard wave 1-2 fibs. This is highly suggestive to me we're likely starting the wave 1 up now and can expect another retract to the .716 or .618. Im interested to see how we get moving on this because the swing low trend line will shift from our present channel under this situation and getting some measurements on the sub waves here will help us determine some new areas interest for taking profits and reintroduction.
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once this next move up concludes, I'll be much more comfortable with targeting in more detailed areas of interest. Watch while this is largely targeted much less a pull back than will likely see play out. Knowing the probability this is a wave 1 starting gives the edge in navigating the future moves if you're inclined to believe this looks more like the missing correction portion in a bullish wave 4 than it does a wave 1-2 pivot with missing correction portions and a retrace quite unusual to a wave 2. For me. I don't see anything unusual at all, just larger.
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I'd also like to note, the wave channel will no longer line up with the reversal at $5,400 area and the swing lows from here out in line with themselves and not the lows until now. This is further evidence you can gain confidence in the situation we're in.
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EDIT: reversal at $6,400*
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Id like to further add the probability of the next wave being shorter than the wave up from the $6,400 low and the wave after being longer making wave 3 the shortest if the move from the bottom was a wave 1. Under those conditions, that would be another broken unbreakable rule only further validating the ideas Ive been charting.
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In conclusion, option 1 is looking like to only possible scenario unless we pull back fast in spite of the bullishness in the charts.
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I eagerly await taking some profits at the next sign of daily bearish divergence and reintroduction at standard wave 1 retraces. I still see some pretty amazing highs in store for us and long before the end of the year.
Lastly, for objectivity's sake and appeasing those terrified of the DOW crash fractal, the red curve below is far more probable a scenario than BTC signaling it is a toxic asset and is allowed to fall below the pink trend line for a period of time allowing miners to remain in profit while handling transactions of the network at a net gain. These are all ideas I've outlined in detail to date. Don't forget, I've also posted prior charts where intended for you to be able to press the play button and see where we are and the most probable implications of the price action so you can judge what best fits your investing or trading strat if you're still new enough you lack confidence in your charting capacity and perception of the market movements. I'll link them below after posting.
In conclusion, I'm still quite bullish and I'm not emotionally swayed to the movements we're seeing at this time. Additionally, the indicators are presently displaying indication we're nearing another move up or are experiencing one at the time of this writing. I've liquidated nothing as selling at a loss and waiting for a move up will literally equate to direct loss of profits at this point unless we're in the process of seeing the absolute destruction of BTC which I still see zero evidence is actually happening but an abundance of evidence to the bullish contrary.