MarcPMarkets

BTCUSD: Slow Double Top May Offer Hidden Sign Of Strength?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD             update: Double top formation is attempting to unfold but I would not assert this conclusion yet because it is materializing in such a slow fashion, it is suspect in my opinion. This double top is lacking the selling momentum that usually follows which can be a hidden sign of strength.

When a market rejects a resistance level , especially a second time, price often does not waste time. It sells off quickly and that is not happening in this market. Not only is the bullish trend line still intact, but there is also a minor support at 10754 (.382 of recent bullish swing) that can hold price up for a subsequent higher low. These not so obvious factors point to the possibility that there is no real motivation to sell and all this market needs is a catalyst to spark the move to higher prices.

This type of formation is attractive to shorts, and can suck many in who do not realize that the timeliness of a formation is an important consideration. If I was short, and I was sitting through this lack of progress, I would be uncomfortable and looking to get out because it is not behaving as it should. This is not something you learn in a book, or some free video on Youtube, you learn this by years of observation and getting caught on the wrong side of strong markets. When selling happens, it happens faster than buying.

This does not guarantee that price will continue higher, and the possibility of the double top following through still exits, but the longer price stays above the trend line and/or the 10754 level, the more of a chance it will go higher. Don't be quick to judge a market because of an impression of a formation, instead let the market prove itself. Waiting for this proof usually costs you more in terms of better entries, or less favorable exits, but that is the price you must pay for seeing the market's hand.

Since I locked in profit at 10900 the first time it sold off from this level, I have reduced risk and still waiting for a good price to add more to my long. A clear bullish reversal at the 10754 level is my preferred scenario, other wise I will just stay with what I have. It is very possible for the market to form a shallow higher low off of the trend line and break higher, which is a valid break out signal. Why I will not aggressively add in that scenario is because I do not like buying into the reversal zone which has an upper resistance at 12429. If you choose to buy into that break out, the key to managing more effectively is to be quick to exit if a failure candle shows up while within the reversal zone.

In summary, TA is more than just indicators and charts. It tells a very detailed story if you understand what is "behind" the candles. And to any story, there are at least two sides, and you must always be evaluating both until the market shows its hand. Less experienced traders do not realize that when facing any market environment, there is a high degree of randomness or noise which leads to confusion and a lack of "predictability". The mistake many will make at an inflection point like that one we are facing now is that they will attempt to predict which way the market will go from here. We can evaluate the signs and consider the context to get a better idea of where the bias leans, and take chances when the reward/risk is clear. When it is not, it is better to let the market reveal its intentions.

Questions and comments welcome.
Marc Principato, CMT |Author: Analyze Any Financial Market Like The Pros Using Price Action| http://www.Priceactiontraders.net | Cofounder http://www.seekingcryptos.com (S.C.)





Thanks for the post, though I am more than a little confused about taking profit.
initially your purchases showed losses of as much as 50%, so why would you sell to yield a single digit percentage profit? Because the risk/ reward in that case is very asymmetric. like selling options to gain small amounts until you are wiped out by the big one.
I'm not being critical - just don't get why you'd risk so much to gain so little
Thanks
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Update, please! Love your analysis
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Excellent comment. I assess that price action gained some momentum, but it is still not very typical for a strong sell-off. Would you say that it is still possible that it is gathering momentum, or does it still look unnatural?
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Very good read, thank you!
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I'm still out of a long position and got a good profit))

Next, I will wait for a better price of about 9 000 or 8 000 and again buy up to 15 000 or 16 000, there I will again get a good profit!

But still I think from 6,000 I will also buy up to 16,000.
In general, there will already need to look at the situation, what to do better, because everything changes at the market every minute, just the signal itself and the forecast, too, change with every hour!

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thanks! Would love an update!
+1 Reply
i predicted bitcoin target perfectly accurate at 11.700, check my previous top lines and climbing predictionc

check my previous btc charts



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This market’s so manipulated it’s ridiculous. Price goes up slowly and “organically” over the past 4 days to lure unsuspecting people into a potential inverse head and shoulders neckline breakout, and then bam. Whales just dump their bags on everybody. They probably painted these charts for the past month and a half. Have no clue why people like Tom Lee are calling for price to double by July. There’s no way that’s going to happen if this blatant manipulation keeps happening.
+5 Reply
BRRD WinstonWolf
@WinstonWolf be careful how much manipulation you see - it's mostly an imaginary refuge for those frustrated to find themselves on the wrong side of the market.

There was this guy on Bitcointalk in 2013/14. Posted in speculation every day making endless losing trades and blaming it on manipulation in myriad forms.Very entertaining but mostly self-deception.
+4 Reply
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