BTC Bulls are fighting off the Bears...it's not over yet.
Since my first post last week, I identified an Elliott Wave count at the very beginning of the 1st impulse wave. Since then, I've had to adjust the 2nd correction wave several times, as this is a much more protracted and deeper correction than expected. You can see that the correction fell out of the uptrend channel, but found several support levels outside of the channel and is clawing its way back in. My first estimate of wave 2 was a 50% retrace at the 9400 level. Bulls and Bears fought over that level most of Sunday and Monday. Then that level was lost and I aimed for the 61.8% retrace at the 9265 level, but that level was broken yesterday. Since then, the fight has been hovering at the 78.6% retrace level, 9069, with a pierce downward through that temporarily. At that point, we have witnessed a bounce back to the 61.8% retrace.
This is all good developments for the Elliott Wave. The uptrending EW impulse of Wave 1 stays valid as long as Wave 2 stays above 100% retrace. In fact, I think this deep and protracted retrace could indicate a strong and large Wave 3 up through the 10,000 level. Of course this is a major resistance line and I expect some minor wave corrections at this level.
On the flip side, if this current bounce off the 78.6% retrace doesn't last, and BTC drops below the 100% retrace level of wave 1 at 8818, that invalidates my EW count and price would fall with the first major resistance at around the 8,000 level. My red boxes indicate resistance levels upon falling prices and my green boxes indicate targets for my Elliott Waves.
But at this point, my EW counts are holding and I have also added my EW counts on previous action and found some solid support for this idea, so I'm staying Bullish on BTC. Happy trading!
Have a Great Day!
This is all good developments for the Elliott Wave. The uptrending EW impulse of Wave 1 stays valid as long as Wave 2 stays above 100% retrace. In fact, I think this deep and protracted retrace could indicate a strong and large Wave 3 up through the 10,000 level. Of course this is a major resistance line and I expect some minor wave corrections at this level.
On the flip side, if this current bounce off the 78.6% retrace doesn't last, and BTC drops below the 100% retrace level of wave 1 at 8818, that invalidates my EW count and price would fall with the first major resistance at around the 8,000 level. My red boxes indicate resistance levels upon falling prices and my green boxes indicate targets for my Elliott Waves.
But at this point, my EW counts are holding and I have also added my EW counts on previous action and found some solid support for this idea, so I'm staying Bullish on BTC. Happy trading!
Have a Great Day!
Comment:
At the 15m chart, the current rally formed a bull flag and should break very soon!
Comment:
Well our bull flag from yesterday formed a small break upward but it didn't take long to go back into correction mode, and we've pretty much been in a sideways correction wave pattern for 24 hours. But as you can see below, the action is drawing closer and has formed an ascending triangle. I believe in the next 2-4 hours we will see break upward.
All this to say that this pattern continues to fit within my elliot wave count and this could be a big break up and get back on track with Wave 3.
Have a Great Day!
All this to say that this pattern continues to fit within my elliot wave count and this could be a big break up and get back on track with Wave 3.
Have a Great Day!
Comment:
Would you look at that!! From yesterday's update, I predicted we would see a breakout in 2-4 hours. But my forecast of an upward break from the ascending triangle formation was WRONG! Instead, of an ascending triangle, it formed an ascending wedge, which was a bearish correction formation and boy did it ever drop out the bottom.
Overnight, the bears took control and fell through my first red box of resistance without many breaks even to catch a breather. At this point, I expect it to continue dropping to the next red box at the 8,000 level before see a correction in this downward trend.
That's a bit disappointing, eh? But it gives us the opportunity to buy the next dip! I'm aiming for the dip at 8,000 to get back in.
Have a Great Day!
Overnight, the bears took control and fell through my first red box of resistance without many breaks even to catch a breather. At this point, I expect it to continue dropping to the next red box at the 8,000 level before see a correction in this downward trend.
That's a bit disappointing, eh? But it gives us the opportunity to buy the next dip! I'm aiming for the dip at 8,000 to get back in.
Have a Great Day!