botje11

Bitcoin and Tether fight, almost over?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The crypto market has been sleeping for quite some time now and it looked like Tether was finally breaking it's range and was on the way back up to healthy levels, but within 5 minutes of that last update i gave the price dropped back in to the range again. But the move up was with MUCH more volume than the volume that dropped the Tether price.

The triangle breakout of Bitcoin was already long overdue making the pattern (probably) invalid. I still think that TA is useless at the moment because of the Tether uncertainty that is in the market lately. Usually when we see false breakout, we see counter moves. But as we can see in the chart we had false breakouts on both sides. Both of them were mostly because of Tether.

During that pump from 6200 to 6800 (and from 6300 to 7800 on Tether exchanges) allot of traders were buying Bitcoin because it was safer to have Bitcoins instead of Tether. These circumstances are exceptional which makes standard TA quite useless at the moment. I know that most people think TA is just about looking at pictures and using indicators, but that is only a part of it. In essence TA is about supply and demand (buyers and sellers). The price movement of an asset gets created because of "normal circumstances", speculation (traders) and long term investments. We (traders and investors) trade based on information that is known to us. We all know Tether has been variable in crypto but the past 6 months or so it has been very stable. So IMO Tether was a constancy the past 6 months and all the pattern (like the triangle) were formed knowing Tether was a constant factor (where nobody was thinking of). As i mentioned in one of my previous analysis, many support/resistance levels are not valid anymore expect for certain psychological levels like 6000 and 7000. Also important highs and lows, but not trend line levels because those were shaped when Tether was a constancy and NOT a variable like it has been the past month.

Long story short, were are still inside the range of 6350/6500. Until we break this range there is nothing to add. So i would be very careful with long/short positions until we break this range. If the range breaks, be aware of false break outs. You want to see the break out stay above/below the range for at least a few hours. Best is a daily close above/below it.

In the mean time i would say, broaden your horizon to other markets like the stock market. Volatility there has reached crypto levels and i have been giving allot of spot on analysis there. Giving moves that are worth like 1000/2000 point moves of Bitcoin . Even when your not trading it, you will make yourself a more seasoned trader. My early followers know my roots are from the traditional markets, because of my objective view on crypto i was able to catch most of the highs and lows on Bitcoin . Also because i have zero FOMO when it comes to crypto. FOMO has been the nr 1 reason why most traders just kept on loosing this year. FOMO is where professional traders feed on.

Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)




Previous analysis:
Comment: Here we can see the high volume of Tether during that move up and the very low volume pushing the price down again.

Comment: This is very unfortunate, Tether made a solid break out of that range earlier but got pushed back in again. So it looked like we were getting close to the final chapter of this Tether story, but seems this sideways movement will continue.
Bitcoin still moving inside the range so still nothing to add on this part. We really need a break of that range.

Comment: Tether is staying close to the 0.98 which is a good sign, trying to leave the 0.97x level behind it. Looking at Bitcoin, it seems like the range might have turned into a triangle, so maybe we could see some real movement soon, don't expect anything in during the weekend though.

Comment: While Bitcoin is moving down slowly, Tether is making a good move up with high volume! This is a good sign for the market. Doesn't mean crypto market will move up, but it could take away this very dangerous factor that has the market in it's grip for weeks now.

Comment: Still looking good with Tether, no quick dump this time. Think it will be a matter of time until it gets back to $1.00ish again. Maybe it could even cause some kind of relief rally for Bitcoin. I can't make any predictions on what the price will do after Tether gets back to $1.00x, it's a unique situation. So we will just need to see and wait first for what happens until we have some guidelines what we can use for future predictions.

Comment: It's almost staring to look like the market is not happy with tether getting back to $1.00x level. Alts have been weakening the past hours. Instead of expecting some confidence coming back, almost looks like the opposite is going on. All very small moves so not that meaningful yet, but would have expected a bit more optimistic reaction to the upwards move of Tether.

Comments

Hi, you are saying some very logical and valid things here man. Makes total sense to me! Thanks for your view about this, it's much appreciated. I definitely gave it a LIKE :)
+6 Reply
botje11 Dojari
@Dojari, Thank you, appreciate it. There is allot more to say about what TA is all about, but i will tell much more as soon as my website is ready (soon, but have been saying that for quite some time now :))
Reply
NVT ratio still indicates BTC overvalued. This doesn't portend a precipitous drop in BTC price action but seems to signal more of the same range-trading we have been seeing recently. When the NVT ratio normalizes I think we could see another bull run. The 200d MA has been acting as resistance since the week of March 8, 2018. This cycle has lasted nearly 8 months and see's the 200d MA closing in on the current price action. A close above the 200d MA could be enough to consider divergent and, initiate a long position because I believe this critical point is programmed into most bot trading algorithms along with being eyed by the big money. Until then I am of the opinion that BTC range trades for well into November with volatility scalping opportunities presenting themselves in both directions. Your TA is detailed, interesting and compelling.
+5 Reply
moviestar biffbifford
@biffbifford, which value is normalising of NVT ratio for you?
Reply
purplewavez biffbifford
@biffbifford, Even Willy Woo says NVT is not good anymore because of OTC sales which don't register on the markets...
Reply
botje11 biffbifford
@biffbifford, Thank you and thanks for sharing you view/facts as well. I am afraid as well that this sideways movement might even take months. If we could see some independent REAL price movements in Alts though, that would be great. Because then Bitcoin could even move sideways the whole, would probably even be good for this market to see a stable Bitcoin. Maybe if Tether gets back to $1.00, there could be a chance for the GOOD alts to move independent.
Reply
Hey!
The same situation is here also, like watching how the paint dries up, but yes some movements finally and some altcoins are showing just a liiittlleee signs :)
After the morning "Hammer" I would expect a little bit bigger movement...
Some of my daily ideas:
+4 Reply
botje11 VaidoVeek
@VaidoVeek, yes some alts are showing little signs, so that is a good sign AND the fact that we have not seen any panic selling is also good. But I am just still very afraid of the low volume, that is always dangerous.
+1 Reply
VaidoVeek botje11
@botje11, ...and I just can’t believe that this 4h Hammer AND now a possible daily Hammer doesn’t work as a bullish indications! Rejection came from massive supports, at $6,460 and round number $6,500 but again let’s see. Patient is the key;)
Good luck to You!
Reply
botje11 VaidoVeek
@VaidoVeek, I don't know if the bullish/bearish signs work that good on Tether exchanges, since we can see a direct link from Tether price. Maybe that's why those Candle signs don't work as they should
Reply
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