bagofXMR

Anatomy of bitcoin accumulation using wyckoff logic

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Pay special attention not only to the price structures, but the volumes. This is a wyckoff text book accumulation

TR - Trading ranges are places where the previous trend (up or down) has been halted and there is relative equilibrium between supply and demand . Institutions and other large professional interests prepare for their next bull (or bear) campaign as they accumulate (or distribute) shares within the TR
PS—preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end.
SC—selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests.
AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR.
ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC. It is common to have multiple STs after a SC.
SOS—sign of strength a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume . Often a SOS takes place after a spring, validating the analyst’s interpretation of that prior action.
Trade active: We are in.
Now paying close attention.
Spoofy showing a 5k btc sell wall on bitfinex and market dumping fast.
Be careful, trade safe.
Comment: 8.7-8.8k should be next target.
Comment:
This could be a nice place to buy some corn if you are not in from 7k
Comment: Target 1 of 8.8k was met. Closed 60% of position there.
Now looking forward to see what happes here at this level. If we break it my bet is on 11.5k for the next and final target befor doom and gloom.
Comment: Expecting a pullback now down to 7.8k-8.1k area.
Hey bro, how are you doing?
Haven't seen your ideas for a looong time.
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bagofXMR AiliKing
@AiliKing, hey, got sucked in by crypto twitter :joy:
I now share charts and ideas there, you can follow me in @meridiocrypto - nailing it lately :P
+1 Reply
@bagofXMR hey bagofxmr, any indication on whats next for bitcoin ?
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doom and gloom meaning a big pullback before the full out bull trend?
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bagofXMR ichoponions
@ichoponions, I won't consider the consolidation over until miners suffer. And miners haven't stopped to be profitable basically anywhere. So doom and gloom meaning new lows so miners can feel the panic, mining equipment gets cheap and we can start the cycle again.
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@bagofXMR, hmm very interesting. so that would imply new lows? I keep thinking that the long bear market/bleed people are expecting will not happen yet until further parabolic growth just due to growth rate of crypto infrastructure?
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bagofXMR ichoponions
@ichoponions, Growth from 2015 was strictly parabollic (over 10,000%), and completely decoupled from any fundamentals metrics, that surely kept improving but at a much slower rate.
Markets are cycles, and after a massive overvaluation people is now just starting to open their eyes. Until we reach objectively undervalued levels and herd refuses to see it, we can't reverse.
But that's just my opinion :)
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@bagofXMR, i get that opinion. I just keep thinking the 2015 parabolic move did not have as much institutional participation and I feel like the infrastructure has recently been built up for them to have a big piece of the bubble. definitely be interesting to see play out. I will just prepare for a hedge short around that 11.5k area if anything. thanks for the input
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bagofXMR ichoponions
@ichoponions, In Q1 2017 most popular trade among 100 biggest hedge fund managers in Wall Street was "long bitcoin". Big money certainly got in and played a big role in this run. Certainly 401k and funds itself didn't get in yet, but on the other hand we had huge dirty money (see tether) coming in and unable to go out (so huge rotation of that money).
Nevertheless, I think the brandnew institutional money rails will play an important role in absorbing panic, and that is why I think we won't dump below 3k.
But IMVHO there is no way 6k was the bottom, not because of the price level but because when it happened. A three year bubble can't consolidate in 3 months.
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@bagofXMR, makes sense. i'll be looking forward to your updates
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