The return of the bull

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Here are more thoughts on BTC's current situation.

1) most other charts I have seen have been drawing their fib retracements dating back up to 5 years. which puts us currently right around the 70.2 level, however this charts fib retracements started in september of last year. 9/15 to be exact, as this is the date of a very notable sell off and subsequent institutional investment as marked by the low candle on 9/15 as well as the previous candle on 9/14. this is an area that institutions have a strong interest in supporting and the area of largest volume up to that point. drawing the fibs from this location as the start of the current pump now puts us at the line in the sand of 78.6 which is a typical reversal point if 70.2 fails.

2) although everybody believes we are in a true bear market this chart will show that we actually left our bear market on april 12th. the downtrend was broken and we are currently in more of a ranging market.

3) after the break in the downtrend I have also drawn our current falling wedge with strong support at the second point of interest on this chart, a second round of institutional investing, as marked by the green box and recognized again by the candle low as well as the previous candle and the large volume .

4) by now everynody has seen the inverse head and shoulders forming on the daily which if completed should bump us to around the 7600 mark, what you may not have seen before is that this mark is also the top of the falling wedge as well as the top of the ichimoku cloud . this will be a strong resistance point however if broken would be a huge indicator the we are re-entering a bull market.

5) As you can see on the macd as well we now have a confirmed divergence on the daily as well and the MACD is now moving above the signal line. again very strong signals. if you look at the weekly chart you will also see a confirmed divergence that just happened this week which is an even stronger indicator of a reversal than the daily charts and the only indicator of a reversal we have had since bitcoin fell from its top at 20k

I am bullish on Bitcoin to 7600 and will be watching closely from there for more signals as to its path but as of right now. I believe we have hit our bottom and we are in an ideal trade location, we have bullish structure in the market and we have indicator confirmation. 3 reasons that should be met before you make a trade. The only thing we are really missing is the volume to back it all up. Good luck, happy trading and as always this is purely my opinion and should not be taken as advice on whether to buy or sell an asset.


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