shelby3

2023 - Year From Hell

shelby3 Updated   
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Another March 2020 flash crash likely coming in 2023. Either Q2 or Q4, but I’m leaning towards Q2. The percentage decline from the dead cat wave #b high is posited to be much worse ~90% (at least if not hodling legacy protocol Bitcoin) versus ~62% in 2020.

Note the meticulously diagrammed patterns. It’s as if the decline and rally of 2018 and 2019 as applied to the ATHs in 2021, subsequent decline and posited diagrammed future, is being combined with the structure that started from the $13.8k peak in summer 2019 to the March 2020 crash. This is what I have referred to as constructive fractal wave interference. But you can also see it makes sense from traditional wave analysis as well.

June could have been the bottom, else my maximum plausible decline (before rallying back up significantly as diagrammed) is to ~$15k. OPTICALARTdotCOM speculates that dotted, tan-colored lines will meet the bottom, but that isn’t supported in 2018 as shown and such an egregious decline would deviate from the trend of diminishing volatility both to the upside and downside. Major corrections have been -94%, -86% and -84% in chronological order. After the first was an interim -82% in 2013 and after the last an interim -71% (for the March 2020 flash crash). The current ~74% correction is roughly akin to {-84, -71, -74) as is {-94, -82, -86}. A decline to ~$15k would be -78%. A decline to $12k or $8k would be -83% or -89%. Yet one may wonder if I have diagrammed a flash crash in 2023 to $6k (and ditto the moon to $1M price by 2026) wouldn’t that violate the diminishing volatility thesis? The previously posited ANYONECANSPEND Nash Equilibrium restoration “attack” could explain that catapult to the upside by 2026, as well the legacy Bitcoin may have forked off by the flash crash and only decline to ~$12.5k which is -82%. The comparable total decline from the 2017 peak to the March 2020 bottom was -81%.

If the ANYONECANSPEND occurs on this posited incoming, egregious flash crash, it’s also not clear if the current impostor Bitcoin (aka BTC which everyone thinks is the official Bitcoin) goes immediately to $0 and dies, or if it bounces for a couple of years to form a right shoulder on that potentially massive H&S pattern starting from 2018 which projects to below $0.

Comment:
Note it is assumed the reader understands that the ANYONECANSPEND will coincide with a hard fork off of the impostor BTC and the legacy protocol (no ticker symbol yet, not the sh8tcoins BCH nor BSV) will proceed up, up and away as a separate block chain from the BTC clusterf*ck.
Comment:
Added another cyan-colored, parallel line which aligns with the June bottom. Might imply a thrust down to ~$17.8k by Sept 20.

Comment:
S&P concurs? Can you say “stolen election” again?


Comment:
The timing for massive spike up break out on the VIX also agrees with this flash crash timing. Note I didn’t diagram the expected spike up break on the following chart, but you can conjure it.

I annotated this VIX chart in the summer of 2021 and published it.

The VIX chart narrative. The bull-market, declining channel from 2010 to 2018, which turned into a bullish (for VIX bearish for stocks) ascending triangle or wedge from 2018 to 2020. Then the massive spike bull move corresponding to the corona, pLandemic flash crash. Then the bull-market, declining channel from Q2 2020 to Q4 2021, with the market-bearish, bullish VIX breakout peaking to the projected measured move.

VIX has essentially repeated December 2018 to February 2019 already; and now appears poised to repeat pattern from week of February 19. VIX appears to be in another bullish (for VIX bearish for stocks) wedge with a massive spike (market flash crash) breakout to follow in Q3 or Q4 2023. Initial, spike up breakout (i.e. markets correction) may be in Q2 2023 then calm down again for several months.

All proceeding exactly as the chart projected! If we would just stop ignoring this chart structure, we would be very wealthy from speculative investments.

Notice the bull-market, declining channels are becoming shorter in duration and steeper; thus the next one from 2024 may be only 6 months in duration and near vertical — can readers repeat after me, “ANYONECANSPEND Bitcoin attack followed by vertical, catapult of legacy Bitcoin”! The monetary, economic and political system is self-immolating. Nuclear WW3 (against China-Russia-N.Korea-Iran) surely on tap for ~2025 with Russia-NATO conflict as early as H2 2023.

Comment:
Changed the dates of interest on my VIX chart and diagrammed the egregious flash crash posited to be incoming Q1–Q2 2023. A flash crash on the S&P is a spike upwards on the VIX.


Comment:
Zooming in on the daily VIX chart the dates of interest from the market bottom (and VIX peak) on Dec 24, 2018 to the start of the choppiness and slowdown of the S&P’s rally in March 2019, as compared to (the posited to be a repeating fractal at) the start of choppiness in August 2022 after the rally from the June 13 low. Note March 2019 was the final dip for ETH and BTC after their second thrust rally coming off the Dec 24, 2018 bottom. On Apr 2, 2019, ETH broke through the key overhead resistance (c.f. my ETH chart to follow) thus triggering BTC to launch in earnest its parabolic rally to $13.9k by June after loitering in the toilet before that coming off the bottom, which BTC has been repeating since the June 13, 2022 bottom.

Thus I think the mega rally is about to ensue soon, no later than October if not surprising everyone in September. Remember Martin Armstrong’s Socrates A.I. system has a Panic Cycle for September on the monthly Forecast Array for DJIA following the Panic Cycle for the week of Aug 22 which played out to the downside. Could the September Panic Cycle play out to the upside? Often Panic Cycles can begin with a fake out move in the opposite direction to the larger move that completes it. So a move to the downside initially in September could be a fake out. Also there is another Panic Cycle for the week of Oct 17, which could either be a further (or initial if September is a crash) thrust leg upwards or a scary bear trap pullback before the mega rally continues.

The VIX has two drives of bearish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly chart (not shown) but has a structure (last drive up had the RSI make a higher to the prior drive but not to the initial drive) that suggests maybe one more drive is incoming (i.e. VIX up one more time with RSI not making a higher high). Also the daily chart shared below suggests for one more drive up to enable hidden, bearish RSI divergence to form with the RSI higher high than the June 13 peak, but the VIX level not higher than that June 13 peak. Currently the daily RSI is not yet above the June 13 peak.

Thus I conclude likely one more, minor leg down for the markets before the mega rally continues. Expecting that to scare the weak hands into thinking a lower low is incoming. Again I expect the posited rally to peak by Q1 2023 and become a bull trap that precedes an egregious flash crash in the markets no later than May 2023. Socrates has a Panic Cycle for the month of May 2023.

Comment:
OTOH, there’s already bearish RSI divergence on the daily VIX if compared to the June 16 peak. So it’s not assured there must be another leg higher.

Some have been waiting for a lower low on BTC because the spot price lacked bullish RSI divergence on the daily for the June low. But note CME did print that bullish RSI divergence in June. Ditto ETH spot price never printed said bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart in June. Both printed bullish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly in June.

Both ETH and BTC have slightly bearish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly but this offset by needing a significant bounce to form it on the daily. Whereas both already have multiple drives of bullish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly and at least one drive of hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the daily. Both could add another drive of hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the daily if they move lower but not lower than $1k and $19k. Or potentially bullish RSI divergence for BTC could form on the weekly (!); and separately also on daily with a move below $19k if the RSI does not come down too much.

There is already hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the daily SPX.

ETH appears to have a bearish, short-term technical formation but it could rally back up to the wedge it fell out of.


Comment:
A potential bullish Butterfly harmonic pattern (c.f. also, also) forming on BTC on the 4 hourly chart only, with required (else pattern isn’t formed) downside and upside to ~$18.9 – 19.3k and ~$20.1 – 20.7k respectively. Note there’s no particular target date, except that for a 4 hourly chart it shouldn’t stretch out too long. The pattern would be invalid if price drops below stated downside or exceeds $20.5k before downside target.


Comment:
I bet going to down a bit more.

Comment:
OPTICALARTdotCOM intending to put in a massive long if drop to his major Fib ring ~$18.6k. Remember I was pointing out that ring to him in comments a couple of weeks ago before he pointed it out.

youtu.be/KU6gBf6bw3Y?t=527
(Bitcoin Drop on This Exact Day! My next Heavy Long & Short entries.)
Comment:
Kdub (aka the Crypto Zombie) points out that the Market Cipher indicator has flashed a yellow ‘X’ for possible manipulation.

youtu.be/3gtYgm02ERg?t=434
(click to see chart)

Also very likely markets about to rally same like 2019 as the dollar doesn’t crash but enters choppiness:

youtu.be/3gtYgm02ERg?t=634
(click to see chart)
Comment:
youtu.be/bfRhs62FK7c
(Retail CRYPTO BANS Are Here! What It Could Mean For YOU!)

This is well worth expending a few minutes listening on double-speed.

As was the case for the stock market crash of the Great Depression, the LUNA crash of the crypto markets is the pretext for coming crackdowns (possibly in September in the U.S.) against trading (and especially leveraged trading) of cryptocurrency and especially the highly volatile, small cap altcoins. The commercial banks were jealous seeing money flow out to Coinbase.

Thus you can imagine the bans on crypto coming after my posited egregious wipeout, flash crash next year.
Comment:
Tying this posited fractal correspondence into my analysis of ETH. It really appears that ETH has only completed wave 1 of its rally and wave 2 is completing already or soon. Tangentially note this bounce might be wave B of an A-B-C correction making wave 2, thus more downside could be incoming.

Thus this changes the bullishness of ETH considerably compared to the H1 2019 rally. Notice wave 1 only retraced the 0.382 Fib level in H1 2019, but currently retraced the 0.5 level and back up to the near horizontal purplish line.

Since wave 3 is typically the longest of the 5 Elliot waves unless they’re highly overlapping is a terminal diagonal pattern, the only pattern I can find which would make sense would be a rally back up to the reddish trend line as was the case in H2 2019 (which I have posited corresponds to this current rally due to the constructive interference of the combination two prior fractals in 2019 as I posit the smaller one expands on this cycle to be part of the larger one).


Previously I recently posited that ETH:BTC would be bearish as soon as ETH:USD crossed up over its yellow downtrend line, as was the case in 2019. I marked the Feb 18, 2019 date on the ETH:BTC to demarcate the top which I also labeled on the ETH:USD chart. But note the said yellow downtrend line is currently at a much higher level ~$2500. Thus I think ETH:BTC will at least remain to the upside until ETH exceeds $2500. This makes sense because we can clearly see on the weekly ETH:BTC chart that the RSI is not in the bearish control zone below 40 as it was on Feb 18, 2019. And the ETH:BTC chart has a bullish structure up to at least 0.1. Whereas from 2018 into 2019 the chart was in a declining wedge pattern making lower highs and lower lows.

Comment:
My model is supporting this also:

Arthur Hayes Expects $5,000 Ethereum by March 2023

His prediction is based on two criteria: a central bank pivot, and a successful Ethereum Merge.

Pivot could meaning merely pausing rate hikes by then.
Comment:
He has a range from $3,562 (if no Fed pivot) to $5000+.

Hayes is smart:

entrepreneurshandboo...bidding-7a1c56c1cd07

Let’s run through my hypothesis once more before we move on.

1. I am confident the merge will happen by the end of the year due to the increased noise made by Ethereum miners, who will likely lose a significant chunk — if not all — of their income in a PoS world.
2. The recent market rout broke the souls of the “Zhu-percycle” bulls who were big on Ethereum and DeFi this cycle, turning them into a horde of indiscriminate sellers.
3. The “buy the rumour, sell the news” phenomenon post-merge will not occur. Anyone who might sell has likely already sold due to the intense downward price movement over the past month.
4. The merge means that Ether becomes a deflationary currency, and usage is forecasted to continue growing as DeFi gains popularity– increasing the rate of deflation.
5. Although there are other Layer-1 smart contract network competitors, many of them already feature some version of a PoS consensus algorithm. Ether is the only major cryptocurrency currently transitioning from PoW to a PoS.

The last point is extremely important. This change is a one-time event. There will never be another investing setup like what we’re seeing today. That is why my shot shall ring true, powered by Ether.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLYt22ck...
(My 2022 Bitcoin Price Prediction - Long Term & Short Term | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

There are numerous errors in your macro analysis. The 10 year chart does not indicate the top was already in. It indicates that the 10Y has been coming down while the S&P topped prematurely when it should have still been rising — thus a reversion to correct this discrepancy is incoming now. This is one of several indicators that the stock market will make new ATHs no later than Q1 2023. Then the peak will be in and a mega crash ahead later in 2023. Also your Fib ring comparing 2019 to 2020/21 is misleading you. That smaller fractal pattern in 2019 is expanding to become much larger which is why the bottom level you expected has not come sooner. Arthur Hayes recently blogged explaining all the Fed's QT has been sanitized and actually the aggregate measures of money supplied has still been increasing but this has been done surreptitiously so most people are entirely fooled right now, and that unfortunately includes you.
Comment:
ADD: I should add that earnings are not going to crash now. The relevant metrics will surprisingly improve as the 2Y peaks and comes down over the next months. The earnings and labor recession is coming later in 2023. The expectation of an earnings crash is already priced in and is wrong.
Comment:
GoT continues to provide excellent analysis:

youtu.be/yFcMYPNXNDc
(THIS is Going to Cause HAVOC on the SP500 as Investors Capitulate Back into a Historical Run)
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTYNp4Su...
(Bitcoin Macro Cycle Bottom - Best Case For Price)

Hedging your reputation bets now after being so cocky about a lower low still incoming. Also your snickering in the prior video about the misinterpretations that some people have about your use of the term ‘trap’ is extremely off putting. I told you when you first called for your 2D stochastic signal to drive BTC to a lower low that it would not and would bottom and then turn for a move to the upside, which is precisely what has happened.
Comment:
Monthly MACD has printed the reversal signal.

youtu.be/Al1-pgTs3NI?t=123
(BIGGEST TIME SENSITIVE BITCOIN SIGNAL OF 2022!!!!!)
Comment:
Wary about being long right now. S&P has already completed its back test:

Comment:
Watch on 1.5X playback speed. Some salient bullish points. Note any significant pullback today or tomorrow should probably be bought:

youtu.be/bu97xW4gIJ8
(Is Crypto About To Do The Unthinkable? (Massive Bitcoin Move Incoming))
Comment:
I am betting the move will be the upside.

twitter.com/theirish.../1569202187133227009
(click for chart of price moves following CPI releases)
Comment:
Get ready for the mental shift to bullish:

youtu.be/pb_z5YObHLo
(Time Has Run Out! (Will Crypto Pump OR Dump Today?))
Comment:
I am reloading some BTC, ETH, ADA now. Looks to me that BTC wants to head up to 23.3k at the 200 DMA which is also the major downtrend line going back to the Nov 2021 peak if drawn on the non-log-scaled chart.

Also I visualize on ETH and ADA some hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly after retracing a bit. And all 3 are still shy of hidden, bearish divergence on the daily. This bullish move appears to still have a bit more legs to the upside yet. Perhaps ETH to $1820+, ADA to 0.52+ and SPX even looks like it might rally all the way up to the posited prior H&S neckline at ~4140.

I could be wrong and further retracement before the next leg up. In that case I will buy more on the way down.
Comment:
There is your pullback. Buy it.

The hidden, bullish RSI divergences are not yet 100% assured to have reached their maximum downside targets on ETH and BTC. ADA has hit them on all time frames going back as far as the Aug 28 low. So just in case we might get a bounce here I bought all the ADA I want on this pullback. I am waiting a bit to reload ETH and BTC. Again I maintain that the low was in June. The volatility now is to shake the trees of weak hands before heading up in earnest. The VIX is much too high right now for them to break to lower lows unless the VIX is going to have a breakout from its major overhead support, which I highly doubt (anything is possible but I know the correct probabilistic action is to buy when my fear of unlikely outcomes is maximized).
Comment:
I know you guys don’t have enough free time to watch this video, so I will just say I agree with Meet Kevin’s conclusion that CPI would need to spike to new ATHs to send the markets to lower lows. And that is not going to be happening. This CPI report was a bit worse than expected but I know retail used car prices are starting to decline again in September after wholesale used car prices had a huge drop in August. The CPI is measured in a whacko way, but the fact is that inflation sentiment indicates the next report next month will surprise in a good way. I really think Armstrong’s Panic Cycle for the week of Oct 17 will be a massive surge to the upside.

youtu.be/F9eK0Pu1kQc
(Critical Inflation Report - COMPLETE DISASTER | Meet Kevin)
Comment:
Bearish RSI divergences for the DXY on all time frames. May get one more rally up to 111. Remember guys that when fearful that is the time act opposite to your fears. Let data guide your decisions. The DXY and U.S. Treasuries have divergences. We are being given a second change to buy the June bottom. Don’t miss it twice because of fear.

Comment:
Confluence for the top on the DXY is ~111 with the major monthly overhead resistance:

Comment:
After further review given that U.S. Treasuries and DXY although both developing bearish RSI divergences, have some more upside over the next week or two. Thus regardless of any bounce in risk-on markets, likely have another move down possibly to test the early Sept low. S&P may eventually test 3800 and break down from its critical uptrend line support, scaring the fck out of everyone. May get an interim bounce from $19.6k for BTC if not at current level.

Further pain ahead guys. Get defensive until later in September or October.
Comment:
Treasuries are suggesting another test of the June lows for risk-on markets. Be wary. I will step aside from the markets for a while and let them settle down a bit. VIX might shoot up to 32 before this completed.

youtu.be/van3_X5fslQ?t=168
(For the 4th Time in 2022 the SP500 is Rejected After Being WRONG About Inflation. | Game of Trades)
Comment:
Steve @ Crypto Crew University has recognized what I noticed also that ADA will rocket soon, perhaps by October. Look to accumulate this one near the lows this month! Headed to $2 at least.

Steve said based on the facts in this chart, the bottom is in. ADA could be the canary in the coal mine. It may be telling us the bottom is in for crypto.

I am tired of trading this bottom. I want to buy and hodl. I am looking to buy on the incoming lows in September and then ignore the markets for a couple of months or so.

youtu.be/cXpvCgPy95E
(ATTENTION: This Altcoin Could EXPLODE | Crypto Crew University)
Comment:
I THINK BTC WILL CATAPULT TO 28 — 34k DURING THE WEEK OF OCT 17. This is based on Armstrong’s Panic Cycle for the DJIA (which I think will be to the upside as inflation reports finally turn down) and also the timing relative to the 50 cross below the 100 DMA and catapult in 2019 at this posited corresponding juncture to the 50 DMA.

Risk-on markets are reeling again because the U.S. CPI report was worse than expected, but leading indicators say the next report in Oct will shock to the downside. Massive bearish divergences on the dollar and Treasury bonds with perhaps one final hanging man wick up then timberrrr!

Although it was quite a MAJOR bullish development recently for BTC to print on the daily chart both — bullish RSI divergence (comparing Aug 28 and Sep 6 lows) — and hidden, bullish RSI divergence (comparing July 1 and Sep 6 lows); but expectations were premature hence formed MINOR hidden, bearish RSI divergence comparing the Aug 13 and Sep 13 highs.

Ditto on the weekly chart, there was MAJOR hidden, bullish RSI divergence (comparing the March 2020 and June 2022 lows), but hence formed MINOR hidden, bearish RSI divergence comparing the Aug 8 and Sep 5 highs.

Thus I conclude a high likelihood of a decline below the 18.7k Sep 6 low to form probably (non-hidden and hidden) bullish RSI divergence on both the weekly and daily (respectively), thus completing and reversing the recent turn to MINOR bearish conditions. The S&P is also threatening to break down to ~3800 at the 0.786 Fib from its uptrend line off the June lows, where it would also form hidden, bullish RSI divergence with the Sep 6 low which was at the 0.618 Fib level after forming hidden, bearish RSI divergence comparing the Aug 25 and Sep 13 highs (both on the daily chart).

Not clear if there will be a bounce to a level between 20.8 – 21.8k first. There was a bullish, RSI divergence on the 2 hourly chart earlier today but then bounced and quickly formed hidden, bearish RSI divergence. These lower time frames may provide no directional information unless there can form another bullish RSI divergence with a much greater range of the RSI to provide more room to run up. Otherwise the 4 hourly and daily are still bearishly postured but could allow for a bounce. Possibly a drop to the low $19k range might form hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly in which case I would expect the bounce. OPTICALARTdotCOM has the $19150 level as support.
Comment:
Steve has published another video:

youtu.be/6vB_op7h-yg
(Warning: Everyone is WRONG About Bitcoin Crash In October – This Will Happen Instead)

I commented:

The October CPI report will shock in a good way and then markets will boom. There are massive bearish RSI divergences on the dollar and Treasuries. Get ready. The bottom was in June.
Comment:
For all you who are new to the crypto market. Maybe this only your first or second bear market.

Realize that all the gyrations we have been through over the past months is what is required to carve out a bottom. It is at the point like this where we are exasperated that finally the market bottoms and turns up.

Realize this entire crash has been about inflation and rising interest rates. All leading indicators (e.g. inflation expectations) have been trending down since May. That indicator normally has a 3 to 4 month lead time on actual movement of the CPI. The CPI lags because of the way it is calculated (e.g. owner equivalent rents) and other factors. Also rents tend to go up for 6 months while housing prices are dropping because the high interest rates force more people to rent that would instead normally buy. Thus the Fed tends to look at the PPI (producer's price inflation) as a more accurate indication of current inflation than CPI.

Also the doom has been priced in. Nothing is going to get worse than already expected until later in 2023. Inflation is coming down already and that will accelerate. Also the repricing of the Euro for the incoming winter doom is already done for the time being. The dollar and Treasuries have bearish divergence and will stop rising for some months hence, which always correlates with the risk markets going up.

Also the actual recessionary crash never occurs until the unemployment is rising and the Fed starts easing. We are currently in the part of the cycle where there will be one final move back up before the egregious recessionary crash.
Comment:
I commented again on Steve’s latest video…

Steve although I agree with everything you said in this video, Bitcoin will go below $10k in late 2023 or 2024 when the 2008 like 63% crash comes to the S&P. Mark my words. Bitcoin will rally now, but that March 2020 flash crash is going to repeat when Russia starts WW3. Remember I told you.

> I wonder how come you have only 275k subscribers! Your videos and analysis are awesome!

Because many people are offended by his self-aggrandizing style. I am not. I recognize his skills. I am interested in substance and his style is not that bad.

Another reason might be that some people are put off by his use of charts that are very simple. And that he explains in a very simple way. Also many people do not like being told they are wrong. The herd goes the opposite and Steve does not tell them what their emotions want to hear.
Comment:
Very important news. This averted one threat that could have changed my thesis about inflation falling over the next months in the USA:

Railroad strike averted after marathon talks reach tentative deal
Comment:
K-dub made some good points about this being a great time to buy Bitcoin.

youtu.be/o59JeIMS3tc
(BITCOIN!!!!!!! THIS IS F*#%ING INSANE!!!!!! ABSOLUTELY LIFE CHANGING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!🚨| Crypto Zombie)
Comment:
Meet Kevin points out that Core inflation was still increasing at a month-over-month annualized rate of 7.2%. I rebuked his narrative:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=6i9JXrT-...
(Forget Recession | The Fed will Crush us into Depression.)

Was that CPI report skewed by back-to-school demand? If Treasuries and DXY top (both of which have massive bearish RSI divergence on both weekly and daily charts) then the stock markets run up. An elevated CPI may have nothing to do with it. When the narrative shifts that CPI is not the correct metric to be looking at and that the future Fed hikes are already priced in, then stock markets will run.
Comment:
Most people think the Fed is doing QT:

PRIVATE BLOG – Fed Stops MBS Purchases for Now | Martin Armstrong

But in fact they are deceiving us. Even Armstrong is deceived. They are actually still flooding the economy with money while making us think they are tightening. The markets are going rocket.

Teach Me Daddy | Arthur Hayes
Comment:
Looking past the USD bull market | Sept 12

“Those who have been reading my stuff for a while know I’ve been bearish equities, bullish yields, and bullish USD for a while. Today I am flipping that view and reorienting my portfolio towards long commodities (both long term and short term), long crypto, short USD, and neutral yields.”
Comment:
I am buying crypto now. We have the hidden bullish RSI divergences I was expecting to form. Might edge a bit lower.
Comment:
If I annotate the non-log-scaled DXY (aka USD) monthly chart with this interpretation of the channel, then the dollar topped already with bearish RSI divergence (i.e. higher highs on price with only lower respective RSI highs) on the monthly and 3 drives of it on the weekly and daily charts.



Comment:
Finally registered the bearish RSI divergence on the 10Y U.S. Treasuries chart as well. So bottom is in. We’re primed to rockets up in October.
Comment:
Note we have intensive bullish RSI divergences on all time frames but S&P, BTC and ETH have a hidden bearish RSI divergence on the 4-hourly chart. Also the V-shared BTC bounce is probably too fast. S&P is at overhead resistance of the major support trend line which it broke down from. Probable that the markets trade down one more time to test these Sep lows. Maybe on the Fed meeting on Sept 21. I purchased $18.4k so I am taking some short-term profits so I can buy the last retest. Wisest may be to just buy and hodl but I will try to squeeze a bit more juice out of that orange. ETH didn’t form bullish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly in the way BTC did but it bounced off its key 200 DMA and at a key level for daily bullish RSI divergence. Yet it might be in the cards for ETH to wick down to ~1250 to provide bullish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly and elect a more long-term RSI divergence on the daily. Or I could be wrong and nothing will be back tested.
Comment:
An absolute MUST WATCH video from Steve which makes it absolutely certain that June was the Bitcoin bottom and gives us the exact price for incoming top. Also my comment:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=at8sIAvJ...
(The UGLY REALITY of Bitcoin Next Bull Run TOP | Crypto Crew University)

@Crypto Crew University the ~$70k top will be in 2023. I have explained why on my trading (view). Also I noticed this pattern of repeating 5.3 last summer. Nice to see someone popularize it.
Comment:
Follow-up:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=at8sIAvJ...

@Crypto Crew University you have almost unlocked the entire Pandora’s box. The anomaly that is coming has been known by Satoshi since 2010 when he wrote about turning corrupted gold (i.e. the 2017 soft fork) back to gold again. Your remaining myopia in terms of understanding how this diminishing returns $90k top could co-exist with a $million lambos top is that Bitcoin will bifurcate with the incoming Anyone Can Spend Nash equilibrium restoration. I have been trying to get you to pay attention but you and other vloggers ostensibly refuse to read the inarguable game theory I have published. This also ties into the constructive interference of fractal waves which will cause the ~90k top to be in 2023 as an extensive wave as was the case in the 2013 bull cycle. If you want to understand why Bitcoin has fallen out of your log-regression fit then you need to understand properly the Anyone Can Spend technological facet and game theory.

> “@Crypto Crew University wolves of crypto posted a vid to "debunk" this vid. Not sure if you want to respond to it.”

@Carlo.mb25 my replies here to Steve explain the anomaly and thus debunk Wolves of Crypto. I also commented on his video to inform him. Find the relevant nugget in my replies in the comment section on the page found if you search verbatim for: trading view "2023 - Year From Hell"

The soft forked variant of Bitcoin will go to zero. Make sure you read what I told Wolves of Crypto to read and that you are hodling in addresses that begin with 1, not 3 nor bc1.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8NYXQtu...

> > “I did this same math. Could btc actually go to zero like they said? Will ETH after merge show king of all alts and decouple? Btc could go mainstream and become more affordable while the other projects we’ve invested gain dominance. We may have to go through the growing pains as a whole that btc is not practical for dailyt ransactions ”
>
> @Whale Talk I don't think Bitcoin needs to be seen as something used for daily transactions to retain its no.1 spot. Bitcoin's goal is to be a universal store of value away from centralised systems and an easier, cheaper and faster way to conduct border-less transactions. I think there is plenty of use in what I just described for it to retain its position and grow massively, probably more use than a daily cryptocurrency.


@Wolves of Crypto correct Bitcoin was always intended to be the next world reserve currency, not some irrelevant toy for purchasing coffee at Starbucks. Now when you understand that Bitcoin is the 1989 Economist Magazine’s cover story Phoenix and that its design was even leaked in an anonymous 1998 user group post, then you are getting closer to opening Pandora’s box and piecing together the diabolical plan as I have already done. You ignore the technological and game theory facts I know at your peril.

Find the relevant nugget in my replies in the comment section on the page found if you search verbatim for: trading view "2023 - Year From Hell"

The soft forked variant of Bitcoin will go to zero. Make sure you read what I told Wolves of Crypto to read and that you are hodling in addresses that begin with 1, not 3 nor bc1.

@Wolves of Crypto The anomaly that is coming has been known by Satoshi since 2010 when he wrote about turning corrupted gold (i.e. the 2017 soft fork) back to gold again. Steve has almost unlocked the entire Pandora’s box. His remaining myopia in terms of understanding how this diminishing returns $90k top could co-exist with a $million lambos top is that Bitcoin will bifurcate with the incoming Anyone Can Spend Nash equilibrium restoration. I have been trying to get him to pay attention but he and other vloggers ostensibly refuse to read the inarguable game theory I have published. This also ties into the constructive interference of fractal waves which will cause the ~90k top to be in 2023 as an extensive wave as was the case in the 2013 bull cycle. If you want to understand why Bitcoin has fallen out of his log-regression fit then he needs to understand properly the Anyone Can Spend technological facet and game theory.

> “I would also like to add that anyone who thinks the bottom in this bear market will be lower than 15k AND believes in Crypto Crew's analysis is, by default, claiming that Bitcoin will never see an ATH again.”

@Wolves of Crypto trust me, you're ignorant of what I know. You would be wise to schedule a phone call with me so I can enlighten you.

> “I wonder if this is an indication that Bitcoin will be running its course, and $90K is the most the world can sustain for environmentally-unsustainable proof-of-work? Perhaps this is an indication that ETH, ADA, and others will take over in this and following cycles…
>
> I would love to see your 4-year-cycle analysis consider crypto market cap instead of BTC market cap.”


@Scott W environmentally sustained, lol. You and 70% of my other fellow Westerners are gripped with the junk science religion that Carl Sagan warned us would come.

> “@S. Moore I’m an engineer. I worked for a few years in the oil industry. Now I teach math and science. I know the science, and Carl Sagan also knew the science.”

@Scott W Carl Sagan has been entirely debunked for example about the prospects for a nuclear winter. And anthropogenic climate change is if anything highly beneficial although the sun spot cycle dominates any effect humans have. Partake of for example 180 IQ Freeman Dyson's interview on the topic before he passed on in 2020 sadly.

20 year old, 160 IQ Naomi Seibt has done an admirable job of explaining the junk science of the CPCC.

As I am sure you know that environment is not at all the same as climate. And the two are not even loosely linked. And you did write environment, not climate. The Carbon cycle is the life cycle of our planet. Environmental concentration maybe behooves us to use EVs in crowded cities but this isn’t applicable on the aggregate such as climate. Base load can’t be provided by solar and wind. Bitcoin’s electrical security cost is declining as a percentage of market cap with the 4 year halving cycle.
Comment:
Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections to be released on Wednesday morning might be the catalyst for one final thrust to test lows. But nobody knows. Could surprise in a way that causes the markets to rocket. I keep my eye on Martin Armstrong’s Socrates Forecast Array for DJIA that has a Panic Cycle for the week of October 17. I expect that to be a massive rocket to the upside. So I am think it is a bit premature to get all excited about the bottom being in.

youtu.be/4uFCDI74LvE
(*Critical* Fed Docs | Know THIS. | Meet Kevin)
Comment:
The bearish RSI divergences on all time frames up to monthly on the DXY, 2Y and 10Y Treasuries all point to the bottom was June and the last pullback is this week. Liftoff in October. Arthur Hayes pointed out in his blog Teach Me Daddy that the Fed is fooling us because all the QT has been sanitized and actually the money spigot has been turned back on surreptitiously via reverse repos and Treasury spending.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-8eSEwn...
(Don’t Fight the Fed: Why SP500 Investors are About to Get CRUSHED By This Common Saying. | Game of Trades)

> “Our 6-12 month target on the SP500 is 5200 points. Disinflation is happening and earnings are going to hold up, that will provide fuel for a rapid recovery.”

@Game of Trades I think the October 13 CPI report will surprise to the downside as consumers probably spent their wad in August for back-to-school and now have every reason to wait until Xmas given prices are finally starting to come down. Everyone seems worried about earnings but those are already priced in by the pessimistic forward guidance last month.

@Game of Trades another factor is the $4 trillion savings glut accumulated during the pLandemic. This would normally go significantly into housing but with high interest rates housing is declining. Initially as interest rates start rising people rush to buy thinking rates will continue higher. But as rates plateau everyone is in a wait and see mode waiting for the bottom in the housing market. Thus $4 trillion has no where to go but back into the stock market, because it is not going to sit in the sidelines (while inflation erodes their cash value) or in crowded risk-off trades that have massive bearish RSI divergences on all chart time frames.
Comment:
im skeptical of the 10k and lower price calls myself but im not very confident. my best guess is not lower than 15k. its starting to feel like when we were in 2018 at around 3K when everyone was calling for 1k

For $15k Bitcoin then S&P would decline too far and lose its bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart. It’s not clear if it could form a new bullish RSI divergence on the weekly — it would be splitting hairs. It just doesn’t make sense for the S&P to put in a lower low. There’s no catalyst for it to. The CPI is coming down. Everyone is worried about earnings but they have been worried about that since August. Everyone is so bearish and that is the best time to buy.
Comment:
Rip your face off rally ahead! He is pointing out what I did.

youtu.be/wSf27BoONSo
(We could be lining up for a 'face-ripper' rally here, says Ritholtz's Josh Brown)
Comment:
$18–19k or $15–16k. Does it really matter? Don't stare a gift horse in the mouth. The market could run away from us while we are waiting on the sidelines for a measly $2k additional “crash“. I am not going to fail to buy this second chance to buy the bottom.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXZWgjDx...
(Bitcoin Price Is Getting Worse)

Your 2-day and 5-day Stoch pivots are coming down. Two day at $19.7k and will be lower 2 days from now. Ditto the 5-day pivot at $20.1k and coming down. There is no way they can sustain to the downside. The 5-day signal will complete and reset. The 2-day is going to trigger to the upside. The bottom was June. Your prior video was more balanced and you entertained what I am writing here. Suddenly with Bitcoin making a bear trap wick, you leap to your long-standing, wrong-headed hopium that Bitcoin will print a lower low. Massive bullish RSI divergences in play and I bought that $18.4k wick aggressively (which has turned into a bullish hammer as I was expecting it even before it wicked down).
Comment:
youtu.be/aDAmwBtdZBw?t=361
(Bitcoin past the point of no return! Crash to $7k now Inevitable! | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDAmwBtd...

@OPTICALARTdotCOM the major Fib circle has not yet been broken with a close below. It was just a wick below. If you notice there is a very distinct difference between the prior occurrence when Bitcoin bounced off both the upper Fib circle and the major Fib diagonal. Whereas the Fib circle was very far from the level where Bitcoin bounced in June. I bet your so-called ‘God line’ will be broken to the upside and then you will have to entirely change your stance about heading down to $7k. There are massive bearish RSI divergences on the DXY and Treasury interest rates on all time frames from daily through the monthly charts. Bad earnings were already priced in by the pessimistic forward guidance in August. Everyone is bearish right now. You are in the crowded trade amigo. You are not the contrarian now as you were months ago.
Comment:
@OPTICALARTdotCOM why do you ignore that there was a higher high in November? Thus your red line should be positioned higher where Bitcoin bottomed in June. That is not rocket science. You mislabeled your own chart.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDAmwBtd...

> > “Hey Steve wish I could show you something that goes to show that even 7k or even 3k might not be the actual bottom I’ve noticed people haven’t brought this up but I’ll mention it, if you look at the weekly and monthly and go log chart. You will see a bearish gartley that makes the the range of 3050 all the way to 19k we have left arm of the divergence of 2014/15 low to the right arm that goes to 69k it drops after the bullish divergence ends which is why we rolled over and are dropping keep an eye on price if it goes below 3050 the harmonic triggers and we will have a 2008 crash scenario a good example is look at the gbpusd chart from 2008 and compare to btc you will see how we have similar price action we also have a sma bear cross on the weekly where dxy has a bullish cross so if you analyse this it’s gonna be a long bear market because dxy is hell bent and is being manipulated to push a global crash”
>
> @Michael Collins I am sure there are other indicators to show confluence. I trust the p1 chart for bottom. That line is at a downward sloping angle so we can go much lower. However i will buy on contact.


@OPTICALARTdotCOM indeed eventually it comes back down to that thick red line you annotated on your p1 chart. Yet you ignore that November 2021 was a higher high and thus there is another higher, parallel red line in play which is very thinly annotated on your chart which exactly corresponded to the June bottom. It is very likely that we will see a significant rally off that line before we see a crash to your lower thick red line. And we have other evidence that my stance is the more likely one than going immediately to $7k now. That includes for example the massive bearish RSI divergences on all chart time frames for the dollar (DXY) and the interest rates for 2Y and 10Y treasury bonds. Also the bad earnings reports coming were already priced in with the pessimistic forward guidance from many companies in August. Additionally Arthur Hayes has pointed out in his blog Teach Me Daddy that actually the Fed has been sanitizing all the QT and actually expanding the money spigot by increasing liquidity via the repo market and Treasury fund being drawn down and spent into the economy. There are many other reasons I have enumerated at my trading view.

@Michael Collins To understand why that will happen, search for this verbatim on the Internet (not on YT): trading view "2023 - Year From Hell"
Comment:
@Michael Collins I’m unable to visualize the Gartley pattern with your incoherent description. I do see a bearish Deep Crab harmonic pattern from the 2018 high to the $30k level in Jan 2021. Then a bullish Butterfly harmonic pattern formed projecting to the June bottom.

Comment:
Ritholtz’s Josh Brown followed up and I commented:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcuSJhN0...
(26% of stocks are in an uptrend, says Ritholtz CEO Josh Brown)

Ignore the blonde. She doesn’t seem to comprehend that the 2Y Treasury is forward looking out 6 months which is the minimum delay for Fed rate hikes to take effect. The rest of 2022 the Fed will merely be catching up with the 4% the 2Y already priced in. The only possible scare tomorrow at 2pm EST is if the Survey of Economic Projections has a terminal rate much higher than 4%.

> “Josh predicted what happened in June after two 75bps will happen again, except it won't! Everyone was expecting more sell-off but was caught off guard, and now everyone is anticipating how bad could earnings get! It's no longer about the fed, but it's about earnings. Wait till probably the first 2 weeks of earnings season in October.”

@Harly Slamm The earnings pessimism and the 4% terminal rate are already priced in by the market. Up we go.

> “Most stocks are either in a down trend or in a sideways trend. Maybe 2% of stocks are in an up trend. We are in a bear market and the market goes down till Fed is done raising rates. So maybe mid 2023”

@Albert Insinger Not as defined by Josh as being still above their 200 DMA.

> “Josh is not a clairvoyant. Don't listen to his stock market direction calls. He is a good yapper but it is ridiculous to rely on his market calls. If you followed his advice yesterday, you got burned because the market is down 2% since. Stick to his individual calls and then do your own due diligence.”

@Donnie Moder Not if you bought the panic wick down before his call was published and sold the bounce as I did. Now I am reaccumulating but with a cautious eye towards a possible final wick down tomorrow. He is correct that the 2Y already priced in the future Fed rate hikes. And the earnings pessimism was priced in by August’s decline. We are primed to rockets in mid-October when the CPI comes in lower.

> “So if everyone is expecting as face ripping rally where can the market go to provide maximum pain?”

@dptdgclick5132 Nobody is expecting that. Just read the comments here. The bearish case is as crowded as a fraternity hazing in a telephone booth.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcuSJhN0...

> “Investors knows the effect of rate hikes is a cumulative of nature and takes times to impact earnings fully. Only new debts will be financed at higher rates, and it takes a while for the ratio of new debts to old debts "financed at low rates" to creep higher. Having said that, earnings will grind lower slowly before they turn negative. You will hear the narrative that earnings "is not as bad as we thought" for a while to talk the market higher. But investors are not to be fooled this time as understand the nature of the lag.”

@Harf Wajna3 You almost got that right except 2Y will be coming down as the Fed is hiking. Thus earnings outlook will improve after the extreme pessimism of August. And the consumer will be fighting slightly less inflation. The single largest factor though is that markets overshoot on momentum so once they get moving to the upside with the tailwind of peak DXY peak 2Y behind us until 2023, then can you say new ATH? I know you can.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcuSJhN0...

> “@S. Moore YouTube comments are filled with broke bears they don't represent reality. Investors keep buying the dips”

@dptdgclick5132 strong hands are buying the dips. The max pain is felt when the weak hands buy the new ATH.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-8eSEwn...

> “@S. Moore Read that article a while ago. Arthur's a great writer & agree w him on the importance of liq. But- TGA is on its way back up & RRP has been at the same level for a few months now. Fed holdings are down as of Q2 ( can't find newer data on that), so there has been a bit of tightening. Supposedly they are selling 50B of treasuries as we speak. Not saying we wont get another rally in october but don't see breaking ATH anytime soon.”

@blottolotto thanks for the update. TGA up might be reloading their gun to ease again before the election? The case for new ATHs is more about the 2Y and DXY dropping or at least topped for now.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcuSJhN0...

> “@S. Moore Yea if these stocks going sideways now fall below their 200 day MA then a lot of selling will take place. You have herd “ Don t fight the Fed” Josh is basically trying to fight the Fed. Not wise. It is better to be in cash on the sidelines till the Fed is done raising rates. No one knows when inflation will come down. Biden keeps printing money. So Fed rate could well go above 6-7%. That would mean the S&P 500 could go below 3000. When things go down. Usually everything goes down.”

@Albert Insinger if the bearish RSI divergences on the DXY (dollar) and 2Y treasuries are correct that they have topped, then the stock market is going up. 2Y can fall while Fed is hiking. The 2Y is what the economy actually pays, the Fed funds only applies to overnight loans between banks.The moving parts in this equation are more complex than your simpleton conceptualization.

@Albert Insinger you need to understand that different variables are moving out-of-phase with each other. So timing is critical. Typically the stock market makes a new ATH after the Fed starts hiking and does not crash until the Fed starts easing when unemployment starts rising. Good luck buying the top.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcuSJhN0...

> “@S. Moore If you look at past bear markets. They usually end with a crash. But I doubt we are there yet. Lots of these financial guys are still saying “buy here”. Once a recession hits then the E in P/E (for earnings) gets hit. So what looks cheap now starts looking expensive and that usually causes the crash. Then after the crash P/E s look cheap again. Look at Shiller P/E index.”

@Albert Insinger yes they do but we are not in a bear market yet. That is the entire point of the 26% of stocks still being above their 200 DMA and the point that I told you that bear markets historically do not start until the Fed starts reducing rates. I already explained the mechanism — the Fed is behind the curve as 2Y already hit the 4% terminal rate thus 2Y will be falling while the Fed is raising. Thus earnings and the damage to the economy will be slowing down or abating somewhat while the Fed is raising. Later though that damage will in the aggregate cause the economy to rollover with unemployment rising at which point the Fed will start to ease and the bear market will begin after we make new ATHs. This is counterintuitive for most people which is why they are so bearish. Note if the Survey of Economic Reports comes out today with a terminal rate above 4% then there could be more downside. If after some months the terminal rate is raised because CPI does not start coming down, then there could be more downside.
Comment:
Fed’s expectations of the terminal rate came in hot 4.6% so the 2Y has moved above 4% and the DXY hit 111. The VIX also spiked. But I still think this is the Fed shooting out max pain and the bottom was June. Bitcoin has not tanked. But the S&P is moving lower. Maybe BTC will make one more move lower? Yet BTC has been not making lower lows past days as the S&P has been. BTC is the canary in the coal mine that the bottom is in?

Comment:
Fed pointed out something very important and different from prior recessions. The labor market is incredibly supply side limited in the USA with two job offerings for every willing applicant. Thus a wage price spiral of inflation could be sustained until the Fed breaks the economy. This is imbalance is what happens when the government is handing out money like fruit cakes to everyone with a pulse. Thus the Bolsheviks running the USA have made it impossible to contain inflation.
Comment:
Remember I had written I expected one more wick down and that ETH would come below 1250.

It’s not entirely bullish nor entirely bearish short-term. S&P has lost its bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart so needs to drop slightly further (but not lower than June) to form hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the daily. I can’t rule out a lower low to form another bullish RSI divergence on the weekly chart (there was one back in June) but that will correspond with a loss of any hidden bullish RSI divergence that had formed on the daily chart.

BTC had formed hidden bearish RSI divergence with that spike up pre-Fed and now bullish RSI divergence since on the 4 hourly chart. There is plenty of room to the downside and said bullish divergence would not be lost. Looks like it is trying to bounce from current levels as I am writing this. Has not lost the bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart from Aug 29 and Sep 6 but could decline below the $17.6k June low (but not too far below) and still retain bullish RSI divergence. Ditto for the bullish RSI divergence on the weekly chart. So in a nutshell based on RSI divergences alone, Bitcoin could bottom any where between current price and ~$16k. No way Bitcoin is going to $13k. And $7k is nonsensical.

The Fed fired its final shots today hoping the bond market will go higher, but it’s likely the bond market has rejected the Fed and shown they are not going to raise rates much higher than 4% before they create a recession that causes them to pause and/or ease.

Ditto ETH as BTC on the 4 hourly and the weekly. ETH has breached below its 200 DMA which stands at ~1280. May bounce to at least there. ETH already has hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the daily but this will not be lost until below the ~900 June low. ETH appears to have an A-B-C correction underway from the August rally top. C is often longer than A so that could indicate more downside.

Eric Krown Crypto’s 2-day statistical signal just triggered to the downside. The two standard deviation event least decline from ~$20.3k would be ~16%, thus $17k. The one standard deviation event least decline would be ~24% thus $15.4k. This should resolve within the next 2 – 3 weeks maximum.

There is a chance his indicator could flip bullish in the next 2 days.

Markets often rally after a Fed meeting, but that was not the case after Powell talked tough at Jackson Hole in August. Also I think the market will start to realize that the Fed is saying inflation may not decline for as long as Brandon keeps handing out stimi checks so that people do not have to work. This sort of implies we are screwed and that inflation may be sticky. So then the market has to decide what level of sticky that is and what level interest rates need to rise to. My bet based on the bearish RSI divergences on the 2Y, 10Y and DXY is that the bond market has already sniffed this out.

So I am only at most looking for one final capitulation to FUD because there are still weak hands who probably think the sky is falling because they do not reason it out that even if employment remains unbalanced and inflation is sticky, that sticky is at some terminal interest rate which could be achieved well before the economy rolls over and unemployment increases.
Comment:
Remember I had written I expected one more wick down and that ETH would come below 1250.

It’s not entirely bullish nor entirely bearish short-term. S&P has lost its bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart so needs to drop slightly further (but not lower than June) to form hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the daily. I can’t rule out a lower low to form another bullish RSI divergence on the weekly chart (there was one back in June) but that will correspond with a loss of any hidden bullish RSI divergence that had formed on the daily chart.

BTC had formed hidden bearish RSI divergence with that spike up pre-Fed and now bullish RSI divergence since on the 4 hourly chart. There is plenty of room to the downside and said bullish divergence would not be lost. Looks like it is trying to bounce from current levels as I am writing this. Has not lost the bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart from Aug 29 and Sep 6 but could decline below the $17.6k June low (but not too far below) and still retain bullish RSI divergence. Ditto for the bullish RSI divergence on the weekly chart. So in a nutshell based on RSI divergences alone, Bitcoin could bottom any where between current price and ~$16k. No way Bitcoin is going to $13k. And $7k is nonsensical.

The Fed fired its final shots today hoping the bond market will go higher, but it’s likely the bond market has rejected the Fed and shown they are not going to raise rates much higher than 4% before they create a recession that causes them to pause and/or ease.

Ditto ETH as BTC on the 4 hourly and the weekly. ETH has breached below its 200 DMA which stands at ~1280. May bounce to at least there. ETH already has hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the daily but this will not be lost until below the ~900 June low. ETH appears to have an A-B-C correction underway from the August rally top. C is often longer than A so that could indicate more downside.

Eric Krown Crypto’s 2-day statistical signal just triggered to the downside. The two standard deviation event least decline from ~$20.3k would be ~16%, thus $17k. The one standard deviation event least decline would be ~24% thus $15.4k. This should resolve within the next 2 – 3 weeks maximum.

There is a chance his indicator could flip bullish in the next 2 days.

Markets often rally after a Fed meeting, but that was not the case after Powell talked tough at Jackson Hole in August. Also I think the market will start to realize that the Fed is saying inflation may not decline for as long as Brandon keeps handing out stimi checks so that people do not have to work. This sort of implies we are screwed and that inflation may be sticky. So then the market has to decide what level of sticky that is and what level interest rates need to rise to. My bet based on the bearish RSI divergences on the 2Y, 10Y and DXY is that the bond market has already sniffed this out.

So I am only at most looking for one final capitulation to FUD because there are still weak hands who probably think the sky is falling because they do not reason it out that even if employment remains unbalanced and inflation is sticky, that sticky is at some terminal interest rate which could be achieved well before the economy rolls over and unemployment increases.
Comment:
My comment:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkeB3NzY...
(The Fed JUST Began the GREAT RESET | NEW DANGERS. | Meet Kevin)

The Fed does not set the market rates. The bond market does. Jerome can threaten to keep raising rates until unemployment comes into balance, but the 2Y treasury is calling his bluff and saying he will never get there. I trust the market more than I trust the Fed. As Ross Gerber told you today that he is buying treasuries today. The market is voting and saying the Fed can’t go much higher than 4% over the next 6 months. There is massive bearish RSI divergence on the DXY, 2Y and 10Y.
Comment:
Futures markets expectations shifted upward ~0.25% on the Fed today. The 2Y was up only ~0.2% so far. The final capitulation is in its final throes.

www.cmegroup.com/tra...untdown-to-fomc.html
Comment:
youtu.be/Urn3Ipvukbo
(Johnson: The charts look pretty ugly right now, but they're starting to go sideways | NBC Television)

“Most investors don’t want to see it, don’t want to hear it.” 🙈🙉

“Would need a larger catalyst for markets to plunge.”
Comment:
Powell can not get employment back into balance except by crashing the economy. That is why the bond market is saying, “no you won’t” to the Fed’s 4.6% terminal rate target for 2023. Essentially his best hope is to keep rates elevated and wait for inflation to come down over a longer period of time. Powell said he is afraid of inflation expectations being sticky thus Powell is effectively telling the market he wants to crash the economy. Thus the market is buying bonds at 4% because they figure rates will plummet in 2023 or 2024 thus being a very profitable investment (bonds increase in value when interest rates drop and vice versa). Locking in 4% now for 2 years is the best investors think they can get. Thus the 2Y has topped according to the bearish RSI divergence signals.

youtu.be/1MGfGTGEp5o
(I just don't think the economy can take a 4.25 to 4.5% rate, says JPM's David Kelly)
Comment:
Exactly my thought before I watched the video:

“Everyone who was going to sell has already sold”

youtu.be/48qIRmAL3M4
(Why the Stock Market is About to Go Absolutely Crazy | Investors are NOT Ready. | Game of Trades)
Comment:
Finally filled that CME gap from 2021 which wasn’t quite filled in June. That had been one of my reasons for thinking Bitcoin would come back down. Have multiple drives of bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart. And both a hidden and non-hidden bullish RSI divergence on the weekly chart. Dollar cost averaging in now can not go wrong!!!


Comment:
Correction: S&P already has hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the daily. It could add drives of it by coming lower but isn’t strictly required. Bottom could be in already for this Fed FUD.
Comment:
I am itching to load my crypto bags now!

The only factor holding me back is Eric Krown Crypto’s 2-day statistical indicator. But that could change direction in 2 days from now. I will look at that now with a fine tooth comb.
Comment:
I’m calling a bottom.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=STK44RYS...
(E.K.C.’s update)

The 5-day signal from Aug 4 has probably completed at -28% over 48 days which is at the maximum duration that signal has ever seen. Expecting that signal to continue (to October) as the new 2-day plays out doesn’t seem likely. The pivot for the 2-day continues to come down. It was $20.3k and now $19.8k. After two more days it can be even lower. It is quite clear that Bitcoin is coiling for a massive move to the upside. The 2-day volatility indicator will not decisively cross over until the pivot is to the upside. I am loading my crypto bags June was the bottom. We have bullish RSI divergences on all time frames from the 4-hourly up to the monthly. And bearish RSI divergences on all time frames for the DXY, 2Y and 10Y. “Wake me up when September ends.” You know that song.
Comment:
I forgot to add that the 2-day has in the past played out over as long as 34 days. So this well encompasses the Panic Cycle Martin Armstrong’s Socrates A.I. system has for the week of Oct 17. Again I expect that to be a Panic Cycle to the upside. We are headed up to fill that CME gap at $29k.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ipzt-Vta...
(The Fed's U-turn is a COMPLETE Disaster | Worsening Reset. | Meet Kevin)

@Meet Kevin Men lie, women lie, but the charts do not lie! The bearish RSI divergences on the DXY, 2Y and 10Y coupled with bullish RSI divergences on BTC, ETH and S&P say the bottom for risk-on assets was June. The labor market imbalance is irrelevant in the sense that the bond market sets interest rates not the Fed. And the bond market has already voted and said that the Fed can’t get to 4.6% without crashing the economy — which they will do. But in the meantime market rates have likely peaked which means risk-on for some months until the economy rolls over. Simpleton investors do not realize that there are multiple moving parts moving out-of-phase with each other. Typically all unemployment recessions and market crashes begin when the Fed starts easing not during the rate hiking phase, given the mechanism I just outlined. Stock markets are headed back up to a new ATH by Q1 2023 before the actual unemployment recession.
Comment:
There is a 12 to 18 month lag before the rising interest rates cause an earnings and employment recession. In the meantime rates will have peaked, thus risk-on markets will go up.

youtu.be/vPBUuiq7lMQ
(This Will Cause a Major SP500 Earnings Collapse Worse Than 2008 By the End of 2023. | Game of Trades)
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9VCCNB6...

@OPTICALARTdotCOM Steve (you) will continue to ignore his upper parallel line which met the bottom in June. Meaning he is ignoring that the second peak in 2021 was higher then the first. Steve's 7k is coming later in 2023.

The bond market sets the market interest rates not the Fed. The Fed only controls the overnight Fed funds rate between banks. The divergences on the 2Y and 10Y indicate that the bond market has decided rates have already topped.
Comment:
Amazing! The S&P is probably going for a lower low than June and if so will have lost all hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart! It will still have a second drive of bullish RSI divergence on the weekly chart compared to the June low.

The VIX has spiked to the very extreme of the symmetrical triangle I have had it contained in. I was wary of an inverse H&S I had identified on it projecting up to 32.75 – 34. Note you do not sell the S&P with the VIX at 33. You buy. Duh.


More troubling is the USD on the DXY chart has rocketed to 113.1 and is in danger of losing its bearish RSI divergence on the daily chart (although it might not) but will not lose the bearish RSI divergence on the weekly nor month charts with a projected move to 113.7 as the final capitulation top:



Ditto the U.S. Treasure 2Y has lost its bearish RSI divergence on the daily chart but is impossible to lose it on the weekly chart. Might lose it on the monthly also if does not close back down for the end of September. Has hit 4.25% already thus affirming some of the increase in the Fed’s desired terminal rate of 4.6%, although most analysts says 4 – 4.5%. In any case my point remains valid (as long as bearish RSI divergences persist) that market rates will have peaked on this capitulation and FUD repricing. We are at (i.e. within hours or days of) maximum pain in terms of market expectations and fear.

And amazingly crypto is having no part in a lower low so far. Bitcoin seems to be saying that it knows what I have written that the interest rates have peaked. I think Bitcoin is not sensitive to the earnings fears for stocks which are apparently being priced in right now!

I had reaccumulated a bit but sold a bit of that on the small bounce off of $18.6k. Am waiting to see if crypto will capitulate once the S&P breaks the June low.

It is absolutely amazing how much fear there is out there in the general public.

I am absolutely convinced this is a bottom now with all this extreme capitulation. Crypto will probably not move lower than $18.1k again if that.

For those who are short risk-on and long the dollar this is your last chance to close your trade in a profit. Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Take the gift.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqdFGCaJ...
(Is the Fed Fighting Against The Global Elite | Mark Moss)

@Mark Moss you have an error in your thesis. The market sets interest rates not the Fed. The bearish RSI divergences on the 2Y and DXY say that the market believes the interest rates can not go higher than 4 – 4.5% without crashing the U.S. economy. Meaning that even if the Fed could raise market interest rates (which they can’t) that the crashing economy would bring them right back down. Or understand it as market participants believe that they will profit at 4.25% when the economy crashes and bonds increase in value as the Fed is forced to Brrrr again and interest rates plummet as investors stampede back into the safety of bonds when the S&P plummets -63% from the new ATH incoming before that.
Comment:
Bitcoin is sniffing this. That is why it did not moon after the June low because it knew that rates and the dollar would increase. And that is ostensibly why it is not making a lower low while the S&P heads for a lower low, because Bitcoin is ostensibly sniffing out that rates and the dollar will have peaked this month.

Bitcoin is becoming the monetary reserve unit-of-account of the world. And now it is starting to clearly play a monetary role, correctly interpreting the movement of interest rates and the dollar.

Bitcoin has become the canary in the coal mine, so to speak.
Comment:
> > “You have one last chance to exit at a profit instead of waiting for confirmation and exiting at a loss”

> “i closed everything and will wait to short the markets again...this is far from over”


Why do you think far from over? What will change to cause the Fed to increase its 4.6% terminal Fed funds rate?

Everything doom is already priced in.

The entire market is on the bearish side. It is way too crowded. Everyone will shift to the other side of the ship. There is no where to go on the bearish side.

Even you are so fearful, probably because you are in Europe. Maximum fear means bottom.

Fight your emotions. Be objective.

They even trying to foment more fear by saying that a tropical depression developing off the coast of Venezuela could become a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and wipe out the U.S. oil production.
Comment:
I am starting to DCA now. I will not sell any more. Bitcoin bottom was June.

My time is too valuable to day trade. I need to move on to other activities.
Comment:
Bitcoin bottom is in!!

youtu.be/MmjxKubcWVQ
(Warning: This Could CRASH BITCOIN – A Serious Update | Crypto Crew University)
Comment:
Watch:

youtu.be/RiyZQTbLQ-g
(This Momentum Shift on Ethereum and Bitcoin Could Change the Game | Steve Courtney of Crypto Crew)
Comment:
youtu.be/h4SQeqj6WPw?t=304 ← click to see Fib rings confluence chart for October
(Next major drop for bitcoin on this exact day! | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

The next major move will be to the upside. The S&P might make a lower low but Bitcoin will not. I am a crypto investor. The market sets interest rates not the Fed. The bearish RSI divergences on the 2Y and DXY say that the market believes the interest rates can not go higher than 4 – 4.5% without crashing the U.S. economy. Meaning that even if the Fed could raise market interest rates (which they can’t) that the crashing economy would bring them right back down. Or understand it as market participants believe that they will profit at 4.25% when the economy crashes and bonds increase in value as the Fed is forced to Brrrr again and interest rates plummet as investors stampede back into the safety of bonds when the S&P plummets -63% from the new ATH incoming before that.

Bitcoin is ostensibly sniffing this. That is why it did not moon after the June low because it knew that rates and the dollar would increase. And that is ostensibly why it is not making a lower low while the S&P heads for a lower low, because Bitcoin is ostensibly sniffing out that rates and the dollar will have peaked this month.

Bitcoin is becoming the monetary reserve unit-of-account of the world. And now it is starting to clearly play a monetary role, correctly interpreting the movement of interest rates and the dollar.

Bitcoin has become the canary in the coal mine, so to speak.

I think it is key that Bitcoin is not sensitive to the earnings fears for stocks which are apparently being priced in right now! It is absolutely amazing how much fear there is out there in the general public.

I am absolutely convinced this is a bottom now with all this extreme capitulation. Crypto will probably not move lower than $18.1k again if that.

For those who are short risk-on and long the dollar this is your last chance to close your trade in a profit. Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Take the gift.
Comment:
I loaded my bags with 150,000 DOGE for ~$9k which may top out at ~$110k profit. Hidden, bullish RSI divergence on weekly charts for both DOGE/BTC and DOGE/USD with two drives of it on the latter.

No guarantee from the weekly charts that June was the bottom but note the posited breakout on the daily chart. And I do think June was the bottom in the crypto markets.

This is projecting to 0.000015 and $0.80 with BTC ~$53k. So ~4.5× gain relative to Bitcoin. And ~12.5× price gain versus ~2.8× for Bitcoin.



Comment:
Cardanao’s ADA:BTC chart has an imminent pattern breakout projecting to at least 1.5× leverage over Bitcoin. If ADA:BTC proceeds to prior ATH then that’ll be 2.5×. There’s bullish RSI divergence on the May bottom and again on the August pullback on the daily chart. And hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the weekly chart going back to the December 2020 lows. Hidden, bullish RSI divergence for the Aug and May lows on the daily and weekly charts respectively for ADA:USDT. Seems ADA goes to $2 – 3.50 with BTC $50+k. DOGE may outperform ADA (but maybe delayed, surging near the end).




Comment:
youtu.be/D8k0gi8OZao?t=182 ← click for the chart
(40 Years Of Stock Market Data & We Have Never Seen This... {SP500, QQQ, TSLA, Bitcoin})

www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8k0gi8O...

That steep inversion means the 2Y is way too high and will crater the economy. So if the 2Y has peaked and will be coming down, that means stocks will moon. It was highly inverted in 2007 also before another leg up in the stock markets. Everyone is so bearish — my analogy is a fraternity hazing to see how many boys they can fit inside a telephone booth. Everyone is on the wrong side of the crowded trade.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ipzt-Vta...

> “@S. Moore you are probably right with crypto I have no idea to be honest as I have $0 in crypto and never invested in it. I can't invest in something which doesn't provide a 10-k report annually as a minimum.
So yeah I'm not commenting on crypto.
But the S&P, the Nasdaq, the DOW, the FTSE. Yeah they can't raise rates without it crashing but that's what will happen anyway.
The s&p will drop to 3200 and probably lower if we get a nice big crash.
And do you know what it will be really healthy because a) it will weed out the 'to the moon stonk investors' and b) things will be at reasonable prices and p/e ratios relative to long term history.
Money is made in market crashes. My cash is waiting”


@Simon I keep searching for evidence that I’m wrong and that lower lows are coming in the markets. But the AAII survey from Tuesday found 61% are bearish, one of the five highest readings since the survey’s inception in 1987. How can this go lower when everyone is positioned already bearish meaning they already sold? Also the DXY, 6 month treasury, 2Y treasury and VIX all have bearish RSI divergences on at least the weekly chart. The beauty of investing in Bitcoin is that it’s entirely a monetary asset (has no earnings) imputed value by its Nash equilibrium and unforgeable costliness (the cost of mining new tokens). DOGE token is poised for 12 times gain by Q1 2023. I like taking a little rider on a 12 times gain, so I put 9k into 150,000 DOGE.
Comment:
The Japanese Central Bank has been intervening to defend the Yen by selling U.S. Treasury bonds which is what helped drive this latest spike in bonds. Ah so that adds fuel to my conviction that this last spike up was not based on market expectations of the terminal rate and bonds are highly oversold. A lot of investors apparently think so as they have been gobbling them up seeing 3.925% on a 6 month bond as a gift.
Comment:
ETH also has the bullish RSI divergences and I see it performing as well as the lower estimate for ADA. Essentially ~4.2× price with Bitcoin in the $50+k range. Outperforming BTC by ~1.5×. If so, ADA is likely to hit the higher side of my esimates nearly competing with DOGE. Anyway it is good to have a mix of BTC, ETH, ADA and DOGE because the latter two move erratically in sudden surges.


Comment:
DXY has hit the first 0.79 Dragon Tail target of ~112. Note measure from the second leg. Next target 122 and above that 136.

www.futuresmag.com/2...ow-trade-your-dragon

Comment:
The DXY has precisely hit the top of the parallel channel:

Comment:
You may want to click this to read all my comments in that thread and also watch the video on double-speed to see what I am talking about. Note Steve @ Crypto Crew University already pointed out that Bitcoin needs to get back over $19.6k before the end of September. And the bearish engulfing candle has had an outlier on Bitcoin where a bullish engulfing candle failed to be bullish.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2ZB5_ko...

@Altcoin Daily a possible reason that crypto is outperforming the stock market (i.e. crypto market cap not threatening new lows and looking bullish) is because crypto has no earnings. There is a lot of worry about upcoming earnings reports.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2ZB5_ko...

@Altcoin Daily a few more points. The leverage in crypto has already been bled out. Whereas stocks are still facing an earnings fear headwinds. Tom Crown’s thesis that interest rates can’t decline when the economy crashes because he thinks inflation will still be too high, may not be valid if the demand destruction causes prices to fall. Price inflation doesn’t need to decline to 2% because bond markets set interest rates, not the Fed. The SPX flash crashes have been increasing by a factor of ~1.75, so the next one would be projected ~63% which also intersects two significant trend lines. Yet the U.S. banking system is not in horrible shape as was the case that caused the 2008 great financial crisis so great crashes need to be manufactured. The Bolsheviks running the West ostensibly want the governments to socialize all hardship (e.g. energy cost subsidies in the U.K. and E.U. and stimi/unemployment checks in the USSA) and simultaneously shutdown production (e.g. pLandemic, pushed Putin to the brink of war, pushing China to the brink with Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, etc). So expect the next flash crash to be some intentionally created event, perhaps a cyber attack on bank accounts blamed on Russia so they can push us towards centrally managed, 666, central bank digital currencies. The future is UBI doled out via CBDCs, enforced rationing and complete enslavement. Welcome to the NWO.

Comment:
I think likely a bounce to close September with Bitcoin above the key monthly close level of $19.9k. Then I think very likely the SPX declines again to test the 200 WMA in early Oct at 3600 to create another drive of bullish RSI divergence on the weekly, and BTC could make a wick low lower than $17.6k to form another drive of bullish RSI divergence on the weekly. Then a face ripping rally in the week of Oct 17. The SPX formed a bullish RSI divergence on the weekly back in June, but currently only has hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the daily assuming does not make a lower low. But the DJIA already made a lower low and the DXY and 2Y treasury both invalidated their bearish RSI divergence on the daily and only kept it on the weekly. So I think SPX is likely to do so also. But looks like there will be rally into the end of September first. Bitcoin absolutely has to close Sept above $19.9k to remain in a bullish posture.

So it is possible the EKC’s bearish 2-day signal might play out to the downside, but I highly doubt to $16k.

Note a possibility of revisiting the bottom one last time. Not sure it will, but it might. Again if my thesis is entirely wrong and the 60% who are bearish are right and everything collapses then I will be REKTD. But the time to buy is when the markets are maximally fearful, which is right now. Thus we should get a rally now and maybe come back down one last time to shake the trees to see if any more weak hands want to panic sell. Then Oct 17 is rockets up baby!
Comment:
youtu.be/KG_OWsiGPAg?t=1076 ← click for the chart

Note the difference in the structure of the 200 WMA (the black line) compared to 2001 and 2008. Very likely the SPX bottoms on or near the 200 WMA.
Comment:
This is excellent. I suggest watching at least the first 13 minutes at double-speed. Very likely to get a rally in the markets this week. But then we have to observe carefully and probably sell the rally for another trip towards the lows in October. The bottoming process probably not complete quite yet but will likely complete in October.

youtu.be/DyMJw8j6m3I
(Bitcoin (BTC) May Rally To 23K Only To Form A Right Shoulder In A Bearish Head & Shoulder Pattern | The Crypto Trader)
Comment:
For the bullish 9-count to continue, then every daily bar has to close above the close of the daily bar 4 days prior. Thus tomorrow’s (Monday’s) close must be above $19.3k for the bullish 9-count to continue. If so then bar 1 would be on Monday and bar 9 potentially completing the count would be on October 4. I am betting on a rally until Oct 4.

Comment:
U.K. pound plummeted because investors expected interest rates to drastically increase. Well the market front run the increase and repriced interest rates, so the effect is done. Now the dollar should decline against the pound as investors come back in to partake of the juicy yields on bonds.

www.cnbc.com/2022/09...ow-of-1point10-.html
Comment:
That Sterling wick down today to 1.04, caused a wick up in the DXY above the overhead resistance. Yikes. But it came back down immediately.

Comment:
Shelby Moore, {9/26/22 4:18 PM}
{In reply to anonymous}
Don’t you dare sell. I have been guiding you all along to way when to take profits and when to reacquire. I have been increasing my wealth these past weeks.

Shelby Moore, {9/26/22 4:19 PM}
Do not sell the bottom and capitulate.

Shelby Moore, {9/26/22 4:19 PM}
If something changes in my understanding of the macro economics then I will inform the group pronto. I continue to dig for information or theories I might not be aware of.

Shelby Moore, {/26/22 4:20 PM}
I thought about what if the U.S. economy is so strong that it requires a 6% terminal rate to crash it. If I see signs of this, I will issue a sell call immediately.

What I see is housing is plummeting and repos of cars is up 33%.

Shelby Moore, {9/26/22 4:21 PM}
The UK just cut taxes which immediately up their bonds rates. So now the Sterling should stop declining against the dollar.

Shelby Moore, {9/26/22 4:21 PM}
The actual intent of the tax cuts was to arrest the slide in the Sterling.

Shelby Moore, {9/26/22 4:22 PM}
By borrowing more to offset the tax cuts, this drives the bond rates up which makes the Sterling more attractive.
Comment:
About the fear & greed index only being at 21:

My concern is that the algorithm has changed over time. Also I mean the lowness of the signal does not seem to correspond with the back test low. Compare first week of Feb 2019 (which was the back test low) to now. Actually you can see that the current ~20 level was the low before the June low. Ditto in 2018/19 that the back test low ~15 was the low before the December bottom. As I said we could have one more attempt at a low. I am still expecting a bounce this week though first. If we do not get a bounce this week, then I will start to wonder if I should be more bearish.

alternative.me/crypt...ear-and-greed-index/
Comment:
Our last hope is to draw this channel on the log-scaled chart and hope that DXY does not exceed 116. Note though at that level it would be dangerously close to losing the bearish RSI divergence on the weekly and monthly chart. We are right at the breaking point. As I said if Bitcoin does not close September above $19.9k, I may reevaluate whether I believe June was the bottom.

I will be advising to sell any BTC bounce to $20 – 21k. I am quite concerned. Although as I said the blood bath in the Sterling could have been due to a one-time increase in bond rates (sell-off) which should now defend the Sterling. And Japan’s central bank was defending the Yen by selling U.S. Treasuries which drove the U.S. interest rates higher which has the effect of making the dollar more sought by investors, i.e. having the counter effect to UK tax cut induced repricing of their bonds. U.S. rates and dollar higher means risk-on assets lower. But note that Bitcoin has been defying any attempt to make a lower low, so maybe it is signaling that the U.S. interest rate and dollar rises are done. But again we are right at the breaking point.

The 1985 level of $1.03 for the Sterling should hopefully hold for now but ultimately going to $0.72 per Armstrong’s Socrates: armstrongeconomics.c...pound-the-fx-crisis/

Comment:
An interesting insight is that central banks around the world can not defend their currencies by selling U.S. Treasury bonds (as the Japanese Central Bank recently did) because this drives interest rates up in the U.S.A. which strengthens the dollar, thus sanitizing their selling of dollars generated by the said liquidation of Treasury bonds.

Thus interest rates must go much higher outside the USA thus creating a global Great Depression, or the dollar must continue rising. We are heading into a monetary reset and the WW3 that accompanies the Thucydides Trap as the U.S.A. loses its superpower status.

The UK ostensibly decided to raise interest rates by enacting tax cuts without cutting government spending which will force the UK government to issue more bonds than before.
Comment:
BTC 19,242 with 24 minutes to go until daily UTC close. Come on we need 19300 in the next 24 minutes.
Comment:
Ron Walker thinks a relief rally imminent and then coming back down to new lows in October:

youtu.be/sPlSvbsoPUU
(Stock Market CRASH: A Big Move Will Likely Start Within 48 Hours Here's Why!- Investing SPX QQQ IWM)
Comment:
youtu.be/0v_6cIVodlo?t=387 ← click the see chart of divergence between oil and U.S. interest rates
(A Major Capitulation Event is Occurring on the Stock Market | This is What Could Trigger a Reversal)

My comment:

Bond markets set interest rates, not the Fed. Rates diverged up as oil declined because the stronger U.S. economy requires a higher level of rates (than abroad) to crush demand, which increases dollar demand. Central banks defending their currencies by selling U.S. bonds, cause U.S. rates to increase nullifying their defense. UK just cut taxes to increase bond issuance to force UK interest rates higher. Thus global demand will collapse and oil will move lower. Too much stimulus checks so U.S. labor has no incentive to work. This severe global recession is eventually likely to lead to war cutting off supply of oil sending it skyrocketing. Meantime EU and UK will increase govt spending on energy subsidies and if this includes increased borrowing, their interest rates should rise providing some defense against the dollar as U.S. rates top out.

This is a vicious cycle leading to economic scorched earth with a soaring dollar and a cratered global economy. Their weakening currencies abroad will exacerbate their domestic inflation thus also help to force their interest rates higher, thus helping to arrest the dollar’s rise for awhile. The UK pound sterling is likely to defend its 1985 1.03 level while the U.S. starts its cycle of peak rates (probably now or in October) and ensuing employment recession by Q1 2023. But the dollar is headed much higher later in 2023+ as economies abroad implode abroad from the egregious stagflation (high interest rates and inflation) although the EU/UK subsidies may kick-the-can for awhile on their ultimately unavoidable, abject collapse into the abyss — thus why our Western leaders need and instigated the WW3 scapegoat. Sterling will later plummet to 89 and then ultimately perhaps 72 by 2026 or 2027.

In summary we have maybe one more respite of risk-on markets from October. But later in 2023 until at least 2026 appears to be an incoming, utter hell. Appears inflation will be sustained as long as possible with WW3 and subsidies to prevent deflation. In which case the vicious cycle of the soaring dollar will persist. Until everything is reduced to ashes and there’s no demand regardless of supply. We are staring down the barrel of Hades.
Comment:
youtu.be/44nlJ29kaco?t=330 ← click to see chart
(Peak Capitulation and Fear | Stock Market Crash | Meet Kevin)

Very close to a bottom but probably one more capitulation (and probably a lower-low at least for stock markets) because retail has been buying this dip (in stocks at least) but are now approaching their pain threshold.

Again I think we have a bounce first ongoing this week, which appears to already be underway with Bitcoin hitting $19.8k already today.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VTbuQaU...
(The Collapse of Britain's Pound | A DANGER for America)

Meet Kevin, you will continue to not understand for as long as you refuse to understand that the bond market sets interest rates, not the central bank. The UK actions sent their bonds skyrocketing because of the expected flood of bond issuance that will be required. The market prices the future issuance in immediately. Thus selling of the pound sterling into every currency that the former bond holder repatriates to. But this new higher level of interest rates has already done the job of raising the rates, not the central bank. Thus the pound should now be defended at the key 1.03 level. Come on Kevin you are smarter than this.
Comment:
K-dub @ CryptoZombie shows the pattern providing this bounce underway. And argues for a drop to $16.2k.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ibMOnm9...
(BITCOIN MEGA ALERT!!!!!!! THIS IS NOT A DRILL!!!!! 🚨 IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS BTC WILL BREAK OUT!!!)

@Crypto Zombie Quite possibly up to 20.2 to 21.1, then down to 16.2k for the final bottom. It will only be a wick low. In that case I expect to close the wick down candle above the June low. The week of Oct 17 is the target for final capitulation.
Comment:
He “stole” my InGoldWeTrust which was my website in 2010.

youtu.be/neqgKiC6TSU
(Fed may reach 'tipping point' by November as world 'breaks apart' into two - Ronald-Peter Stoeferle | Kitco NEWS)
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ipzt-Vta...

> “@S. Moore what I mean to say is generally the bottom for risk on assets will become lower in 2022 and the bottom in 2022 was not June. June was just an intermediate low in the grand scheme of things in 2022”

@Simon We have bounce underway despite the SPX's fall back to a lower low today. Note the bullish RSI divergences on all time frames. That lower low provided the bullish RSI divergences we need to even possibly have a bottom now if not later in October. This could either be the bottom or after the bounce the could be one final capitulation in October. Then rockets. Study the seasonality during Demonrat mid-term election years. Always double bottoms in October then massive rally into the end of the year. The UK tax cut caused an immediate repricing of their bonds (selloff) which spiked the DXY and U.S. Treasuries, but that will provide the higher UK rates needed to defend the pound sterling against dollar short-term. By 2024 through 2026 the world is going to be in an abyss of epic proportions and nuclear WW3. All assets including bonds and the dollar will eventually collapse into ashes. The West is collapsing for a few hundred years at least.
Comment:
I wrote this last night as you can tell from the charts I captured…

I actually sold some last night at ~$20.2k which remember was my first price target. I should have sold more. I almost sold more but got sleepy and was not thinking clearly.

I repurchased now the small portion I had sold. We have multiple drives of bullish RSI divergence now on the S&P on the 4 hourly chart. And still bullish RSI divergences on BTC.

This is scary. But if BTC does not close September above $19.9k then I will probably move to cash and wait. So for the moment I remain in my holding expecting that BTC must move back up.

It’s almost as if the S&P wants to continue down to the 200 WMA at ~3586 while making more drives of bullish RSI divergence on the way. S&P tagged ~3610 today.

There will very likely be a strong bounce if hits that 200 WMA. Thus my fear about a crash right now is very low.

Look at that textbook multiple drives of divergence on the 4 hourly! That is screaming BUY.


Also on the weekly chart. Note lost the bullish RSI divergence on the daily but not entirely if look back far enough.

Comment:
It’s amazing to me that nobody is correctly interpreting what has happened over the past days in the U.K..

The fundamentally stronger U.S. economy (best of the worst) has enabled the market to push interest rates up much higher than abroad. This has caused the dollar to appreciate egregiously. To defend its currency the Japanese central bank sold U.S. Treasury bonds and repatriated the capital back into Yen thus causing the Yen to stop falling against the dollar. But this also caused U.S. bond rates to increase which caused the dollar to further strengthen overall against other currencies. This amplified pressure on the U.K. to the defend its currency, which it had to formulate in a different strategy by enacting tax cuts and spending. Some of that spending is also for price controls (caps) on energy costs. Thus caused fear of increased inflation, thus a selloff of U.K. bonds causing their interest rates to rise precipitously. Yet these sales were repatriated back into the seller’s home currency or dollars, thus causing the dollar to appreciate even more against the pound sterling. These higher U.K. interest rates would help to defend the pound sterling as dollar capital would view the yield on U.K. bonds more favorably with the higher interest rates, yet these interest rates were threatening to unleash a liquidity meltdown (causing yesterday some further stampede into the dollar). The Bank of England initiated emergency Q.E. for long-term U.K. bonds only to restore confidence and to stabilize for example pension funds and the derivatives time bomb thereof.

This sets up the pound sterling to be defended at the 1985 low of $1.03 for the time being. But the U.K. is pouring gasoline on their dumpster fire medium-term as they are stimulating (not just with tax cuts but also) with spending and price controls in an already high inflation environment. Thus U.K. interest rates will remain elevated as U.S. interest rates top out and come down a bit, but this will explode again later into a worst crisis. Armstrong expects the pound sterling to eventually break down to 89 (perhaps next year?) and later to 72 by ~2026/27.

So we are near to the near-term top in the DXY and U.S. Treasury rates (but no where near the final top in the dollar coming over the next few years), which were right at their breaking point for maintaining bullish RSI divergence on the monthly chart so I am expecting reprieve to close the month of September. Thus also near to the bottom of the S&P and other risk-on markets as priced in dollars.

I am sticking with my point that Bitcoin much close September above $19.9k else the monthly Bitcoin chart turns very bearish and dark. And I do not think that $10k and $13k are in the cards right now. So I expect a bounce in the market. I am expecting one final capitulation move in October, but I do not think it will much lower that recent lows.




Comment:
Zoomed in:

Comment:
Typo: /much close/must close/
Comment:
SPX has bullish RSI divergence on the weekly, but not on the daily nor monthly. It had it on the 4-hourly and lower time frames but developed hidden (aka “phantom”) bearish RSI divergence on the bounce earlier today on Wednesday. So now the 4-hourly is indicating that price needs to make a lower low before moving higher. It looks like the SPX would need to drop to ~3400 – 3500 for hidden, bullish RSI divergence to form on the monthly (which if so would definitely send Bitcoin to a lower low than June but not $13k). It’s not a given that we need divergence on the monthly to form a bottom here. So weigh all factors not just one.

Also the 4-hourly VIX has reset from bearish to hidden, bullish RSI divergence. The VIX appears it wants to make a higher high than 35. It can go as high as 37 without removing the hidden, bearish divergence on the daily. It needs to down perhaps below 26 before it form bullish divergence again on the daily. It’s not clear to me whether the VIX can convert its current hidden, bearish RSI divergence on the weekly to non-hidden, bearish if it makes a higher high — meaning either that VIX should not make a higher high or that if it does it might mean catastrophe (yet maybe not if forms non-hidden, bearish divergence). Ditto on the monthly but more likely it can create non-hidden, bearish divergence if spikes higher.

Bitcoin has dubious (borderline) continuation of its bullish, RSI divergence on the 4-hourly. Bitcoin has bullish RSI divergence on the daily and weekly, as well hidden, bullish on the monthly. It doesn’t mean Bitcoin could not form another more convincing drive of bullish RSI divergence on the daily and weekly by moving slightly lower than the ~17.5k June low.

ADA needs to decline below 0.425 or even 0.40 to form bullish RSI divergence on the weekly, although it already has hidden, bullish on the weekly. Hidden, bullish does not mean it could not make a lower low. Ditto to be convincing on the daily although there’s some borderline bullish RSI divergence already. ADA has convincing bullish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly and price may need to move above 0.465 to turn it bearish on that time frame. ADA would need to move quite a significant amount lower to form hidden, bullish on the monthly.

ETH is borderline bullish on the 4-hourly, has hidden bullish on the daily but could drop below $1100 without losing it. Has hidden, bullish on the weekly and monthly and also borderline non-hidden, bullish on the weekly. Hidden, bullish does not mean it could not make a lower low.

DOGE is in a similar situation. Looks like it all set up bullish but its borderline bullish on the daily, so a decline below 0.56 or even 0.50 is possible to form more convincing bullish on the daily. Weekly and monthly are already hidden, bullish but that does not preclude lower lows. Not likely DOGE can decline below 0.45 as it would lose one of its drives of hidden, bullish on the weekly.

I apologize for recommending to buy DOGE and ADA a bit prematurely. We should probably be waiting to see if there will be further capitulation first. Note there could be a rally first or maybe not because the SPX is signaling possibility to head down to a lower low first.

In summary Bitcoin looks stronger than the S&P but the stock market could drag Bitcoin down, but I doubt very much that Bitcoin is going to make some massive capitulation. Bitcoin seems to be signaling that the bottom was June or if not then only slightly lower. I think OPTICALARTdotCOM is crazy calling for Bitcoin to make a massive dump towards $14k or lower within the next 3 to 6 days. I already explained that on his prior Fib ring Bitcoin moved sideways instead of down after moving down on the prior one. So Bitcoin appears to be forming a bottom and will move sideways or up on the ring confluence right now.
Comment:
DOGE is highly volatile. I think it would be wiser to buy it on breakout of one of the two cyan blue downtrend lines on my chart. Preferably the upper one. If you only have a small amount invested and can stomach a possible 10 – 20% drop before it breaks out to the upside, then just hodl. It might not drop.

Comment:
By ‘breakout’ I mean a weekly close above.
Comment:
UPDATE: there is some bullish RSI divergence on the 1 hourly and 30 minute charts. So looks like maybe SPX will push back up again and possibly more than once to form multiple drives of bearish divergence on the 4 hourly and 2 hourly. Then we will probably get that move to a lower low. So if you want to sell some, you have another small bounce incoming. Or maybe even Bitcoin can still close the month tomorrow above $19.9k before any retest of the lows.
Comment:
GBPUSD which comprises ~13% of the DXY has no bullish divergence RSI divergence on daily and lower, and borderline on the weekly. It will come back down to retest $1.03 and possibly hit parity while hopefully maintaining monthly bullish divergence. GBPUSD is very volatile right now. GBPUSD is the main worry in terms of forming a top on the DXY. The U.K. appears to be dying along with its last Queen. It had the chance with the BREXIT to become a capital safe haven but that opportunity is forever lost. It’s time to turn out the lights on Britain.

EURUSD which is ~38% of the DXY is near a breaking point on all time frames from daily up to monthly but has bullish RSI divergence on all those higher time frames. Thus I think it is only likely to at worse retest its low and to be attracted to parity or higher over the new few months.

USDJPY which ~14% of the DXY looks very bearish (i.e. bearish for DXY and bullish for stocks) on all time frames.

The remaining components of the DXY have possible upside bias for the DXY on weekly and lower time frames but bearish RSI divergences on the monthly.

So if we get one more wick up in the DXY to 116 that might be the absolute top near-term and thus the bottom for stocks and crypto, that is if the bottom is not already in. If that 116 (or current top) is not the near-term top in the DXY then all hell will break loose but that would seemingly require some unlikely black swan because the U.K. and Japan have already taken actions to defend their currencies. And the parity level is likely to be a magnet for the Euro and pound Sterling in the short-term.

I think likely the final capitulation for stocks is still to come but should not be egregiously lower unless as I wrote above all hell breaks out on the currencies and parity is lost on both the Euro and GBP.
Comment:
SPX is coming down as I expected. Look for the SPX to tag the 200 WMA ~3590 then we should have a rally into October before the final capitulation.

I am trying to reload BTC ~18400 and ETH ~1250. Not sure if they make it that far down though.
Comment:

Currently SPX has some very minor bullish divergence on the 2 hour and more solidly on the 1 hour charts, still needs to make a lower low to remove the hidden, bearish on the 4-hour chart. If the SPX comes down and tags the 200 WMA ~3590, it will likely form VERY MINOR bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart and all lower time frame charts.

SPX appears to need to come down to ~3400 to form hidden, bullish on the monthly chart which will not invalidate the current bullish RSI divergence on the weekly chart (but will invalidate all bullish divergence on the daily chart and lower time frames thus might be choppy for a while down there to form that bullish on the daily). Thus I am expecting a failure to rally until we tag slightly lower, then a feeble rally in October with a further capitulation crash, perhaps for the week of October 17 which Armstrong’s A.I. Socrates has tagged to be a Panic Cycle week. I was originally thinking that would be to the upside, but based on additional information I have collected, I now think it will be the final capitulation low.

It is possible there will not be any rally interim (after tagging slightly lower low) and directly down towards ~3400. Yet I think the rally scenario is likely. The VIX is postured to make a slightly higher high on the 4-hour time frame. The VIX appears poised in October to form hidden, bullish on the daily then skyrocket to as high as 48 in a final capitulation move. It will lose daily bearish but gain bearish on the monthly and keep it on the weekly charts. So the VIX is postured compatible with my thesis on the SPX (i.e. S&P).

Although I think my thesis that interest rates and the dollar will top out soon is valid, I think there is far too much of Pandora’s box opened and the currency exchange market volatility right now, to transition directly to that pivot here and now. SPX is trying to defend the 200 WMA and likely to get a bounce off it, but that will probably be just a bull trap and need a final capitulation that shakes the trees of weak hands who fear a crash to 3200 and for Bitcoin those who fear a crash to $12k.

Note though that there’s already hidden, bearish on both monthly and weekly already on the VIX, so it is possible that the 200 WMA could be the bottom for the SPX. So that’s why I think we need to buy any slightly lower low incoming at least for the posited rally, because it might be the bottom.
Comment:
The DXY dropped nicely but has already reset with hidden, bullish on the 4 hour chart and borderline hidden, bullish on the daily. Still needs to come down more for hidden, bullish on the weekly chart. So perhaps a bit of short-term bounce to give us that posited 200 WMA low on the SPX and then down some more for a rally on SPX, before exploding back up under my previously mentioned purple uptrend line towards ~116 to perhaps provide the final capitulation in the markets I am positing for October.

It’s not clear that the GBPUSD has to make a lower low though (bullish on the monthly and borderline bullish on the weekly charts), even though it clearly needs to come back down a bit to retest (bearish on lower time frames such as 4 hour). One would think an intraday wick lower low perhaps to $1.00 parity would be necessary to reestablish bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart. So the scenario for the SPX to tag the 200 WMA is likely but the capitulation to ~3400 isn’t as certain looking at the GBPUSD. Will need to monitor this going forward.

Ditto the EURUSD and even more so because it already has bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart. So although it needs to come back down (bearish on the 4 hour).

So I am not quite clear if the DXY will make it back up to 116 to tag the top of my previously shared “last line of defense against dollar bulls” channel. And thus not clear if SPX is headed to ~3400 (after a posited, interim rally in October) or if the posited incoming tag of the 200WMA will be the bottom.
Comment:
BTC displays the analogous signals. The daily and 4 hourly indicate a drop is need to below either $18.25k or $18.5k to reset those bullish. The weekly and monthly are already bullish but the monthly indicates nothing about how much lower it can go first. The weekly seems to favor a lower low than June to make a more convincing drive of bullish RSI divergence. My computed estimate is that a decline can be as low as $15k without voiding the bullish RSI divergence on the weekly.

OPTICALARTdotCOM has $17.3 - 17.4k (although rising a bit by mid-October perhaps $17.5k and the DJIA to ~$27k) as the first level of support for the drop he is expecting. That would be a perfect level just below the June low ~$17.6k. I could envision a drop to ~$18.2k followed by a rally (which might be the actual bottom) and then (if was not the bottom) the final capitulation of SPX and BTC to ~3400 and $17.5k or below (but not $12k as OPTICALARTdotCOM is anticipating). If $18k and $17k don’t hold then I have strong support downtrend lines between ~$15 – 16.5k.

I am now leaning towards the possibility of a final capitulation “the sky is falling” move to scare everyone into thinking egregiously lower lows are imminent.

OPTICALARTdotCOM’s thesis for a $12k move can only be correct if somehow the currency exchange markets are totally broken and immediately the DXY rockets towards 120 and above. I just don’t think that is likely at all, but I can not rule it out if monthly and weekly bearish divergences on the U.S. Treasuries, VIX and DXY (bullish on currencies w.r.t. the dollar) are somehow busted (which would then mean there is nothing between the markets and moves to ZERO which seems illogical). Are the markets really heading to ZERO now? I do not think so. Come on. The flash crash is not probable now even though clearly the West blew up Nordstream 2 to try further push Russia towards WW3.

Armstrong also thinks the markets will be going down until January. He sees that Panic Cycle in January for the DJIA and thinks we can not have the seasonal mid-terms rally in October through December. He seems to think the Demonrats want war immediately to stimulate the incumbent victories. But I don’t think Russia will give it to Brandon so soon, because for example the 300,000 new conscripts have to be trained first. I rather expect a rally then a significant pullback in January as the U.S. mid-term election outcome (effected in January) is going to turn both sides more violent no matter which side wins. Then a final rally in March or April, before the next Panic Cycle which should be the U.S. economy rolling over significantly.

Ron Walker believes the usual mid-term seasonal rally will play out. And he thinks the Democrat mid-term seasonal of final low in October after initial low in June will play out.

Again I think OPTICALARTdotCOM is misinterpreting his own model for Bitcoin as I have previously explained. And I think the CPI (in the U.S.), DXY and U.S. Treasuries have peaked or nearly so. I was even expecting that maybe the October 13 CPI comes in much lower which is why I was thinking the Oct 17 Panic Cycle might be to the upside. And I think the EU, UK and Japan have undertaken measures that will put a near-term floor on their currency depreciation. Of course those short-sighted measures are self-immolating heading into 2023 and 2024. Essentially those measures are to spend and borrow more (in the EU and UK, Japan is selling U.S. Treasuries), thus raising their interest rates making their currencies more competitive to the dollar for bond investment.
Comment:
> “even if we wick further down from 15k we have strong historical support at about 13,700”

Agreed if you want to count that has a worst case but I do not expect it. The currencies and interest rates have nearly reached the end of their runways. I don’t see the impetus in 2022 for that level of further selloff.

You are correct that a wick which does not close the week, could be lower than $15k without voiding the weekly bullish RSI divergence.
Comment:
Correction, no Panic Cycle for DJIA in January. Only September 2022 (which played out!) and May 2023.

Also a more careful interpretation of Armstrong’s latest private blogs is that he is open to a bounce but wary of January and also further into 2023.
Comment:
The Volatility and Panic Cycle rows on Armstrong’s Monthly Timing arrays look bullish from October to April. He is so focused on January, but that appears to just be an amplification of some bullish trend perhaps with a pullback in December?

OPTICALARTdotCOM has a ~$27.3k support line for the DJIA. Armstrong and I have it ~$27.4k. I just can’t envision the DJIA dropping below that, if that. Also DJIA will lose its bullish RSI divergence on the weekly if it drops that far (except if an intra-week wick), but maybe not with a drop to my cyan trend line ~$28.3k to back fill that gap on the weekly chart. Yet a drop to $27.5k if the Oct 17 Panic Cycle is to the downside would create hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the monthly chart. So am itching to buy on a moderate pullback for a rally in October, but I will be wary of topping out and a potential capitulation perhaps in the week of Oct 17. But it could also be the case that the Panic Cycle in the week of Oct 17 will be to the upside.

In summary unless the entire world falls into Hades immediately, the pivot is near both in price and time.


Monthly:

Comment:
DOGEUSD is bullish on the weekly but the daily is signaling a decline below 0.056, then possibly a bounce, then possibly a decline to ~0.045. Can not decline below 0.042 without losing the hidden, bullish AND non-hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the weekly chart. If crypto is declining the DOGEBTC should also decline. First line of support 0.0000026 ₿. At 0.045 that equates to $17.3k ₿itcoin.

Thus I really don’t see $15 – 16k as likely I think at worst the wick low should be ~$17.4k. This is an imperfect science though. My gut is telling me the ₿itcoin bottom is near if not already in June.
Comment:
ADAUSD and ADABTC are bullish on weekly, daily, 4 hourly, 2 hourly. And it has a bullish, declining, narrowing wedge. This looks like a buy right now for a bounce to $0.49 (+12%) if not higher. I will keep an eye on it because I am going to buy some now.

Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...2023-Year-From-Hell/

> “Thanks for sharing. I stay bearish now.”


@Tradersweekly, c.f. my latest updates on the published idea for in-depth analysis of the RSI divergences, as it looks like the chaos in the currency and bond markets is nearing completion. Why do you interpret the chart you shared as bearish? Is it because you see lower lows and lower highs since the August bear trap peak and approaching the June low? Do you interpret that as a descending triangle? Did you realize that your chart looks like an Adam & Eve Bottom?
Comment:
This bullish Adam & Eve Bottom pattern is on BTC, ETH, ADA and DOGE at least.

But wait the S&P (SPX) needs to come down first to tag the 200 WMA ~3590 – 3600, which form the bullish divergences needed for the rally.

Target BTC ($18.25 – 18.5k), ETH ($1160 – 1280), ADA ($0.42 – 0.43) and DOGE (~0.056)

It’s not clear if the altcoins will outperform BTC on this posited rally. DOGE still looks weak. ADA has a bullish wedge, but the overhead on the RSI is more challenging than for BTC unless ADA wicks upwards intra-daily.
Comment:
Watch on double-speed all the way to the end. Concurs with my recent comments. You will be convinced there will be no major crash.

youtu.be/EZe2XHyalUE
(Don't Be Fooled! Is A 2008 Style Stock Market CRASH Now In Progress Or Is It Major Bottom? (SPX QQQ) | Ron Walker)
Comment:
In the interests of transparency this guy called me out and has even gone back through some of my published history to point out my mistakes. You all may want to read this discussion thread:

www.tradingview.com/...-the-end-of-Q4-2022/
Comment:
And look for my comments above and below the linked discussion.
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...2023-Year-From-Hell/

@Tradersweekly, In the interests of transparency and to call more attention to your tirade against my person instead of discussing logic. I am calling the readers’ attention to the linked discussion wherein you called me out and traced back through some of my published history to cherry pick some of my mistakes out-of-context of my holistic exploration. Readers may want to read the linked discussion thread, including my comments above and below the linked discussion:

www.tradingview.com/...-the-end-of-Q4-2022/
Comment:
A ~110 IQ test:

www.tradingview.com/...le-bottom-forecasts/

@Tradersweekly, see anything relevant to the chart @TradingShot posted?


Comment:
The collapse in INVESTMENT-GRADE (i.e. not junk bonds) corporate bonds corresponds to the near to the end of the bear market, not the mid-way point! Drill that in your heads folks. The panic has already occurred. You DCA on the panic, not sit on your hands waiting for massive more downside while the train leaves the station and the market runs away from you. Duh. Note I wrote ‘near to the end’. Historically there’s bit more downside to go after the said bond collapse.

youtu.be/drTw6wwIMZ4?t=224 ← click for the chart
(We Haven't Seen Anything Like This Since 2008. | SP500 is About to Hurt a LOT of Traders. | Game of Trades)
Comment:
Going back and checking on important things. I realized that 1973 was the prior recession where interest rates were rising into a stock market decline. Thus the lead up to the 2008 recession does not serve as the best comparison to current situation, because prior to 2008 interest rates were rising into the stock market rally.

I remembered this uber important Game of Trades video from June 24, that most people have probably forgotten about by now. You know the soundbite generation can’t hold onto any data in their head longer than a few minutes.

youtu.be/U6QMXRB5SJs
(The 1973 Stock Market CRASH Looks EXACTLY Like the Stock Market in 2022 (With 2 BIG Exceptions) | Game of Trades)

That video made two very crucial points of distinction contrasting 1973 to the current situation at the current juncture in the markets:

1. The 1973 stock market proceeded to crash more because it was correctly pricing in an imminent decline in the economy, which was evident because unemployment was rising and because of #2. Currently unemployment is not rising and shows no signs of rising given there are 2 jobs for every applicant.

2. The supply side inflation driven by the oil shock was unabated (i.e. the oil price didn’t decline during the period of the further crash, which is not the case now), thus the CPI did not peak until 12 months later given the flat to slowly rising oil prices after the initial shock rise (because CPI is an annual rate of change), when comparing to the corresponding juncture as now. The oil price remained high even after the OPEC embargo presumably because the Middle-East had realized it had pricing power thus could profit on its near monopoly; and because the massive Boomer WW2 boom generation was entering the global workforce exacerbating an unrelenting rise in the demand for oil. New oil exploration and conservation requires years to sort out.

Whereas our situation now is that CPI (including food & energy) peaked in June (which was affirmed again today by the BEA’s September 30 report for August PCE) because oil prices have been declining because China locked down significant portions of their economy and the markets are anticipating economic decline due to the rising interest rates — marking another important distinction between now and 1973 as to how much more indebted and thus dependent the global economy is on interest rates. China has also needed to lock down their economy as a forced austerity and repression to deal with their collapsing real estate debt bubble.

However, GoT didn’t discuss in the aforelinked video the strong dollar problem we have now which was not the case in 1973. Given how much weaker the peripheral economies are, the interest rates have risen much faster in the U.S. than in other major economies, which has stimulated more demand for U.S. bonds which thus creates more demand for dollars.

Thus Japan, the U.K. and the E.U. where forced (also by their horrific , stultifying natural gas and electricity energy prices situation) to enact subsidies and other spending plans so their economies can handle higher interest rates without immediately collapsing. Thus as U.S. CPI is declining the CPI shall remain elevated in other major economies, thus perhaps stalling the dollar’s rise for a while. Apparently even the sabotage of the Nordstream 2 pipeline was to prevent a reduction in energy costs in Europe as the people were starting to demand an end to Russian sanctions.

Thus the bearish RSI divergences on the monthly and weekly time frames for the DXY (dollar) and U.S. Treasuries appear to be correct. And if so then the stock market and crypto is near to a bottom for a while.

It won’t be too long from now when the emergency measures undertaken by the distressed major economies will blow up into abject economic collapse and that is when our overlords will need WW3 as the scapegoat for the utter hell coming later in 2023.

I warned everyone to leave those distressed countries. I will not repeat myself again: DRY = don’t repeat yourself (as the midwits either won’t grok it and/or will otherwise conflate their nose with their arsehole possibly dragging the good intentioned into a nonsensical argument).
Comment:
Follow-up on the GoT video entitled, “We Haven't Seen Anything Like This Since 2008. | SP500 is About to Hurt a LOT of Traders.”

There is an important distinction between why the corporate bonds collapsed in 2008 and 2020 versus 2022. The investment grade corporate bonds sold off in those prior instances because of economic collapse and thus potential insolvency of said corporations. Whereas in 2022 the corporate bonds are collapsing in price so egregiously because they started close to the zero-bound interest rate and thus nominal rises in interest rates comprised an exponentially higher ratio than if the bonds had started from some reasonable non-zero bound. This is important because per GoT’s June 24 video, for the current decline to be only the mid-way point of a much larger crash, then economic collapse would need to imminent — which it is not.

www.nytimes.com/2022...ss/bonds-market.html

Bonds produce income, but because interest rates were close to zero when the current surge in rates started, those increases in yield caused vertiginous drops in bond values, and there has been almost no income cushion to soften the blow.

A fancier way of putting this is to say that when bond yields dropped close to zero during the coronavirus recession of 2020, their prices became far more sensitive to the interest rate increases that arrived this year.

“We’ve had rates rise sharply before,” Edward McQuarrie, an emeritus professor of business at Santa Clara University, said in an interview. “But what made this year special was that rates rose from such a low level. That’s why bond returns this year have been so negative.”
Comment:
Black swan?

www.reuters.com/busi...-sources-2022-09-28/

Why is this loss of 0.16M bpd causing gas prices to spike so egregiously in the USA when the total U.S. refinery capacity is 17.9M bpd and only operating at 91% utilization?

What hell is going on?

If CPI starts going back up the entire thesis for a bottom in the markets is out-the-window.
Comment:
I found the reason. It is the switch from summer to winter fuel:

trafficschoolonline....blog/high-gas-prices

Refinery Maintenance Limits Supply

Refineries have to be in compliance with summer regulations by April 1. Switching from winter to summer blends requires significant work and “downtime” at refineries, so companies often schedule other maintenance work for the same period.

Since refineries can’t operate at full capacity during this maintenance “season,” the supply of fuel decreases temporarily, contributing to the rising price.
Low Inventory at Distribution Terminals

It takes several weeks for summer gasoline to travel through pipelines and reach distribution terminals across the country, so terminals have until May 1 to purge their winter fuel. Since failure to comply with the requirements results in a steep penalty, terminals are more willing to risk not having any inventory than being late to comply.

These low inventories at the terminals also contribute to higher prices, especially as demand continues to increase throughout the season.


www.gasbuddy.com/go/...ers-continue-falling

GAS PRICE BEHAVIOR SWINGS WILDLY
Refinery snags in some areas of the country are contributing to wild fluctuations as areas of the West Coast, Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes and Plains have seen significant refinery issues leading to supply challenges, causing prices to spike even as oil prices have dropped. However, the Northeast and Gulf Coast continue to see normal activity at refineries and prices there have dropped. The disconnect between regions grows larger and will likely remain abnormal for the next few weeks until refinery issues get under control and rectified.
Comment:
The dollar was declining the in 1970s, so gold was rising with interest rates. Now we have the opposite situation.

The economic landscape is such that if the Fed is forced to Q.E. (Brrrr) into a price inflationary situation, then interest rates and dollar will continue to rise (after any posited respite near-term due to the repeating, worsening cycle of demand destruction followed by government and central bank Q.E. stimulation). If so then all investments will decline (both during the phases of appreciating dollar and on the overall long-term hodling period) except hodling the dollar. IOW, there is no investment other than dollar one can hodl and come out ahead, except at the end-game of the monetary reset. Even altcoins outperform during the end of rallies, but they proceed to radically underperform over the long-trend, so can’t be hodl assets.

Even commodities may be difficult to invest in that environment because they will be volatile because stimulation of demand leads to rising interest rates which destroys demand. This appears to be the monetary death spiral that Armstrong had been warning about since 2015 at least.

So the problem is if this is the case then we can not be successful hodling anything but the dollar, unless we are hodling until public confidence in the dollar is lost (i.e. the necessity for a global monetary reset) some several years from now, in which case gold and legacy Bitcoin would moon.

We thus have been turned into speculators and speculators lose on average.

If the Fed did not bail out a weakening and eventually imploding economy then all investments except bonds would decline. Except maybe gold and legacy Bitcoin would rise if that collapse was enough to break the confidence in the U.S. dollar but I doubt that. I think there is no way the Fed will not Q.E. if the economy is collapsing. Question is at what level of economic decline will the Fed step in with Q.E. (and/or ending Q.T.)? This will impact timing and performance of various investment classes. The Fed does not set interest rates directly but it can influence the economic environment with Q.E. and Q.T. which thus has a market-based impact on interest rates.

The posited thesis for a rally in risk-on investments is that there’s still $4 trillion in accumulated savings sloshing around from the pLandemic stimulus. And if the rise in U.S. interest rates and the dollar pause, then that savings will be attracted to stocks (and crypto). Stock earnings improve when interest rates decline both because of increased spending in the economy and the NAV computation of earnings increasing due to the discount rate being lower. And the opportunity cost to hodl the dollar increases when it is stagnant or declining. This is the reason we must look at the dollar and U.S. interest rates for our cue is because the dollar is the aforementioned monetary wrecking ball in control of the situation with all investment classes.

I think we are indeed headed for such a posited pause but the problem is exactly when. Because we do not know how far stocks and crypto will be able to run up before the next event that forces the U.S. interest rates and dollar back up again. Thus if we buy too high, we may not capture any gains or insufficient gains for our objectives.

We have been turned into bloody speculators. And speculation is damn difficult to succeed with especially in this chaotic environment. If the governments can blow up natural gas pipelines then we have no way to even fathom the pivot points of volatility other than trying to glean market insight from the patterns in the charts themselves (e.g. RSI divergences). We can not trust the Fed to guide us because they told us inflationary would be transitory. Now they tell us that rates will not decline for a long-time.

One wisdom I can share is if you are successful as a speculator then extract the dollars you need and get out. The likelihood of being successful the next time reduces. Speculation is not a game where we should look at luck as a confirmation bias of expertise.
Comment:
The Bitcoin CME chart gave us bullish RSI divergences on the June bottom foreshadowing the subsequent rally. And it has bullish RSI divergences again on all time frames from 4 hourly to monthly. The CME chart has a very different structure than spot price on the monthly (looks more bullish with a higher close for month of Sep instead of lower on spot) and on the weekly it has broken the ATH support from 2017 and next support is $16475. These charts tell me that BTC could rally now, or it could decline to $16.5k first (or after a rally). If declines immediately that much then the 4-hourly bullish RSI divergence would be lost. Look carefully at that weekly chart.




Comment:
The main difference for Bitcoin spot price charts compared to CME are that the monthly & weekly are much more bearish having already broken down from 2017 support with next level ~$14k and $16.1k respectively; and weekly has only dubious, bullish RSI divergence. Although the spot chart didn’t signal that June was the bottom either but CME did. Also the 4 hourly chart has dubious, bearish RSI divergence.




Comment:
ADA’s weekly chart could be the canary-in-the-coal-mine because:

1. It didn’t form the terminal Elliot Wave invariant (i.e. wave 2 didn’t retrace more than 61.8% of wave 1) thus didn’t require wave 4 to retrace to top of wave 1. Thus strongly signals that the Nov top was the end of wave 5 and now in an A-B-C correction. This wave B rally is unlikely to make a new ATH unless this is an Expanded Flat correction, which is possible. Then wave C will come back down.

2. The ~$0.40 level is strong support because to crash to the next level ~$0.17, would violate the bullish pattern on the ADABTC chart unless BTC were to crash by 60+% which is highly unlikely. Thus it’s highly improbable BTC will have a further major crash but $16+k isn’t implausible.

Bearish RSI divergence on weekly, thus a decline to or below $0.42 is likely or even wick below $0.40.




Comment:
I just purchased 12500 ADA at $0.43 with an intention to purchase at least 12,500 more if it declines to $0.42 or below (or in the future based on new analysis if doesn’t decline before a rally).

The rationale is based on the prior analysis with downside risk maybe only ~$0.39, possibility that daily bullish RSI divergence may take priority over weekly bearish, and given that I think ADA will hit at least $1.40 before all is said and done.

This probably is a hodl position until at least $1.40.

Another thought that comes to mind is that it being very unlikely there will not be another altcoin season before the world implodes in 2023/4, because Cardano has an important upgrade coming out. Look what ETH did in anticipation of its recent major “upgrade” to proof-of-stake(sh8t).
Comment:
ADAETH on both weekly and daily charts, clearly shows that ADA has 2 – 2.5× leverage on ETH by the end of the posited incoming wave B rally, which seems to imply that ADA probably to go higher than $1.40. But the prior bullish RSI divergence turned to bearish, hidden RSI divergence. So ADA is likely to underperform ETH on any initial rally and ADAETH may come back down to form a bullish RSI divergence.


Comment:
ETH is also imparting very bullish information! Other than some noise in the 4 hourly time frame that could possibly allow for a slightly pullback to maybe ~$1280 but this may not be necessary, ETH has a bullish RSI divergence on the weekly (the first other than the hidden, bullish which is also on the monthly!) that would be lost if ETH declined significantly. And the A-B-C wave 2 appears to be complete (A = C percentage length) thus ETH poised to rally back above $2k. ETHBTC has bullish RSI divergences.




Comment:
The history of the Accumulation/Distribution indicator on the Bitcoin Index chart clearly points to that the bottom was probably June with possibly only an intra-month wick down to double-bottom. Of course this fourth (or fifth) instance could be an outlier but I can only base probabilities on what the indicator tells me about the history.

Note never has Bitcoin made a lower low this far out from the juncture when the indicator turned red.

The indicator final decreased its downside slope (i.e. started to curl towards up) with the September close.

Comment:
The DOGE:ETH trading pair is painting a very bullish picture for DOGE relative to ETH at least by the end of this, if not imminently. On the weekly chart the leverage on ETH is 2 – 6×. Problem is DOGE tends to move in sudden surges and is very volatile, so don’t buy too much. It’s a bet on a homerun only.

Had two drives of bullish RSI divergence, followed by a bearish, followed one drive of hidden, bullish on the daily chart. Could possibly come down to make another drive of hidden, bullish making ETH stronger initially (or maybe not, ditto for ADA) — ditto on 4-hourly (not shown).


Comment:
Bitcoin is below its Realized Price, i.e. the average price of all Bitcoin transacted.

www.lookintobitcoin....arts/realized-price/
Comment:
Bitcoin’s Pi Cycle Top indicator (which remember guys I employed this indicator to predict the top in April 2021) has not been more bullish than it is now except for two prior, equivalent instances in Bitcoin’s history.

www.lookintobitcoin....cycle-top-indicator/
Comment:
The Pi Cycle Bottom indicator already triggered just after the June bottom. Currently resembles 2015 and remember I am expecting another crash to come in 2023.

Miner capitulation hash ribbons green signal has also already triggered.

Comment:
It seems the initial E.U. Crypto legislation will be quite lenient and apparently compatible with another altcoin season:

youtu.be/NdsK8Zhlwqg
(LEAKED EU Crypto Bill! Here's What's Coming To Europe!! | Coin Bureau)
Comment:
Fed may be about to pivot! Possible gap up in markets on Monday! Fed has called an emergency meeting to discuss the discount window liquidity and collateral ratio for banks. Is the Fed about the follow the actions of the E.U., U.K. and Japan to restart some form of liquidity injections? Ostensibly the banks are reeling from massive used car loan Repos being underwater and housing market is also starting to decline.

Peter Schiff also mentioned this.

youtu.be/DIK_cbvcrYk
(Shocking Truth Revealed! Emergency Fed Meeting Indicates Solvency Crisis Imminent | Steven Van Metre)

We knew the Fed would break something. 🤣

youtu.be/24U73nlCLhk
(Debt Markets Have Faltered Dramatically: Solomon CEO | Bloomberg)
Comment:
Back-to-back months of the most bearish sentiment since the AAII survey was created in 1987. This has never happened. Nearly everyone is bearish.

youtu.be/W9Ni7QbGY2E?t=108 ← click for the infographic
(Buy Now, Wait or Sell The Stock Market This Week? 3 Times This Has Happened. | FX Evolution)
Comment:
Bullish although it can lead to a final capitulation move! Short puts on the market have only been this high two previous times since and including the 2001 dot.com crash.

Watch this entire video. A wealth of data. Is making the case for a bounce in October then a final capitulation.

youtu.be/W9Ni7QbGY2E?t=233 ← click for the infographic
(Buy Now, Wait or Sell The Stock Market This Week? 3 Times This Has Happened. | FX Evolution)
Comment:
Ron Walker was/is also thinking a S&P move down to 3550 to 3585 (already hit the latter on Friday), then a bounce into October and final capitulation after that. Values being thrown around are 3200 – 3400.

youtu.be/9GPMMSZzfRo?t=1210 ← click for chart
(Stock Market CRASH Wave 3 May Finish Tomorrow - Big Rally Coming Once It Is Done | Ron Walker)

He also goes into detail that the current Kiss of Death signal requires losing the 50 MMA (in green) before we can conclude it will be a 2008 meltdown instead of a rally back up.

youtu.be/rBCjw_k-h08?t=326 ← click for chart
(Is The Kiss of Death On The S&P500 About To Cause A Stock Market CRASH? PT 2 | Ron Walker)

youtu.be/eL_nXzwwGSw?t=1236 ← click for chart
(Prepare For A Stock Market CRASH: IT'S OVER! The S&P 500 Just Got The Kiss Of Death! PT 1 | Ron Walker)
Comment:
Biden’s illegal attempt to pump additional stimulus into the U.S. economy by forgiving student debt to further stoke price inflation, might be overruled. This Kansas State attorney general makes several valid points about the unfairness of forgiving student debt given that others made sacrifices and should not have to pay the additional taxes to fund this. For examples those who worked simultaneously (as I did!) to pay their tuition. Or those who signed up for the military which funded their university education.

youtu.be/mx68l0gebYM
(Congress did not give this power to the president: Derek Schmidt | Fox Business)
Comment:
Dollar likely in a topping process below 116 for now:

Japan ready to take ‘decisive’ steps on yen, says finance minister
Comment:
Ron Walker continues to present the possibility of either an A-B-C bottom wherein the coming rally would have marked the bottom, or a five wave bottom with the posited incoming rally marking the end of wave 3 and another wave 5 lower after the posited bounce.

Bitcoin coiling (second to last chart). Will be a break up or down?

youtu.be/xy6QwJ1ceSo?t=571 ← click for the chart
(BTC URGENT UPDATE: NASDAQ Just Dropped Below Its June Low - Will Bitcoin Take Out The June Low Too? | The Crypto Trader)
Comment:
Ron Walker @ The Crypto Trader pointed out that although BTC spot daily chart already has the small bullish RSI divergence (inside the circles on my chart) that it would be more convincing if makes a lower low (as the stock markets have already) to form a more significant bullish divergence.

But I had pointed out that ETH will lose that smallish bullish RSI divergence on the weekly if it declines significantly. ETH would then need to move to a lower low than $879 to regain the bullish divergence on the weekly! Is that likely? That could provide a more convincing longer (rather than equal percentage length) wave C than A in the posited A-B-C decline for posited wave 2. There is a possible hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the daily though at a higher level just above ~$1100. Maybe that is what we get instead of bullish divergence on the weekly? Then if that is not the final bottom, bounce up and then maybe come back down again in October for a lower low than $879 and form bullish divergence on the weekly?



Comment:
There was a lot of worry about Credit Suisse on Sunday. I was thinking about informing you all but I decided to sleep on it. Woke up and see Credit Suisse had attempted to reassure investors. And markets are up slightly. However, on this bounce there are now bearish RSI divergences on the 4 hourly (but not on the daily) so I cashed out what I had purchased last night at a profit, while I survey the landscape some more. The VIX looks like it wants to make one more surge. I am not yet confident the rally will ensue. Might need another thrust down on the markets.

Ostensibly that is also why the Fed had called an emergency meeting for today. Is there some contagion event around the corner or are they preempting it effectively? Will their actions be perceived as a pivot by the markets?

I watched some Chinese chick on Bloomberg explain that she is not as worried about a 2008 Lehman collapse, because she claims this is not a balance sheet recession but rather a credit squeeze due to rising interest rates. That is why they have been buying short-dated (e.g. 3 and 6 months) bonds because there is a real risk of a bear market rally.
Comment:
Is Martin Armstrong blind? Does he not see that the bond market interest rates have already hit 4.5%? The market appears to be almost done raising for now. The Fed funds rate is not that relevant. The QT is relevant but slowing moving and presumably priced into the market already. And the Fed is holding an emergency meeting today to provide more liquidity to banks because they are already caught in a credit squeeze. Thus this is in some fashion the Fed already pivoting as has the Bank of England. Also the markets and the dollar are contingent on the relative interest rates in the U.S. versus abroad. The fact that other nations’ interest rates are rising more rapidly is bearish short-term for the dollar. Which is bullish for stock markets short-term after this current wave C down completes.

The key differences between the 1970s recessions and today is that the oil price did not subside. And gold was rising with interest rates because the dollar was not so strong as now. And the economy rolled over significantly. Whereas now the economy can not handle the rise in interest rates (e.g. Credit Suisse already failing) and the U.K. and E.U. already enacted stimulus via subsidies. The central banks will have no choice but to turn on the money printing machines into high levels of price inflation. And watch the markets go bonkers when they do. Also if the dollar and U.S. interest rates pause then stock markets (and crypto) will go up.

The Federal Reserve is Raising Rates – Get Used to It

The title speaks for itself. The Fed is going to continue raising rates until inflation shows notable improvement. Some still question whether the Fed will ease on its hawkish policies, but there is absolutely every indication to believe they will continue at full speed. Core PCE rose 4.9% in August from the year prior and increased 0.6% for the month.

{…}

Every month there are reports of the market being “spooked” by rate hikes. People come on TV and act surprised that the Fed has the audacity to raise rates yet again. Why? Powell stated in every possible way that the FOMC will raise rates for “some time.” In Powell language, that means rates will continue to rise for a while. The computer foresees havoc going into 2023. Things must get worse before they become better. Unemployment must rise, rates must go higher, and you must adjust your strategy accordingly.
Comment:
This doesn’t mean there couldn’t be bounce in October, as China reopens, U.K., E.U. and Japan have undertaken desperate actions recently.

But why would a banking crisis or even an escalation of the Ukraine war cause U.S. interest rates to rise? I could see the dollar strengthening but wouldn’t that cause bonds to increase price due to more international capital stampede demand and thus yields to decline in the U.S.? That could have of course cause interest rates to rise abroad. Which would require emergency liquidity injections abroad and/or capital controls perhaps even as diabolical as posited. There is no Panic Cycle for the Armstrong’s DJIA monthly forecast array until May 2023 after the one in September 2022. That liquidity crisis is likely to spillover into U.S. markets and cause the Fed to also pivot. Fed is already pivoting today offering more liquidity to banks due to stress in the credit system.

Gold was rising with interest rates in the 1970s because the dollar wasn’t strong. Would risk assets rise with the dollar if interest rates are not strong? Normally not because that scenario implies a crash in the economy. But what if the crash is abroad not in the U.S.? 🤔

Armstrong responds immediately to my question about if he is blind.

www.armstrongeconomi...-fate-of-the-future/

> “The 30-year bond elected a major long-term Quarter Bearish Reversal on target {…} The Quarterly closing was a confirmation that we are looking at both a liquidity crisis in addition to a banking crisis that is most likely with an epic center in Europe {…} what bottoms or peaks with the ECM major turning points is typically very profound. That has been vindicated once against by the bond market peaking the first quarter of 2020 with the turning point. We have entered the STAGFLATION mode since March 14th as we head into April 2023.”

Realize when the banking and liquidity crisis starts in Europe, the powers-that-be will need a scapegoat to prevent people from accessing their funds. Thus the W.E.F. presaging malfunctions in the network (e.g. cyber attack or electrical power outages) as the excuse for shutting down the banking system.
Comment:
Would the powers-that-be close the Strait of Hormuz and/or the Suez Canal? Thus sending price inflation skyrocketing so that U.S. interest rates would rise as would the dollar?
Comment:
You guys who purchased crypto recently. I would suggest exiting at a profit while I try to figure out what is likely to happen and the timing.

Remember OPTICALARTdotCOM has a crash to occur this week. I think he has the wrong interpretation of his own chart. But I do not want to bet against him until I feel confident in my understanding of the likely macro events to come.
Comment:
I had to catch up on some sleep today so I could think clearly, which is why I was sleeping all day.

My reactions:

www.armstrongeconomi...swering-questions-2/

> “Now insofar as the sovereign debt default, we are looking at governments collapsing which will take down banks that must retain reserves in government bonds.”

Astute! That is a very important observation. The banks can not survive as they are forced to hold as Tier 1 capital by B.I.S. regulations. So unless bond interest rates top out then banks will continue bleeding. Are U.S. interest rates topping out for the meantime given the bearish RSI divergences on the monthly and weekly time frames for yields on the 2Y Treasury bond? Just imagine what happens when the B.I.S. designates legacy protocol Bitcoin as Tier 1 capital after WW3. Then the 1989 Economist Magazine Phoenix will be entirely fulfilled. 😉

> “Schwab’s idea {“you will own nothing and be happy”} will fail because the setup is different this time. Marxism succeeded because in Russia serfdom ended only during the 1860s. Therefore, the common people DID NOT own anything and it made sense to raid the rich. This time, people own houses and cars, and they save with pensions and to help their children. This time the common people would have to surrender all their assets so Schwab’s Marxist theories can be implemented.”

Is Armstrong logical? If the plan is that people do not give up their assets but are instead allowed to use them in return for a percentage of their income being garnished automatically by the CBDC then why would Westerners resist when their alternative is starving in the dark? Armstrong seems to ignore how indebted Westerners are and that they will have no choice but to lose their assets or agree to Schwab’s offer. Florida thought it was going to be independent but look they now have lost all availability of home insurance, because the Federal government was preventing insurers from charging market prices. Florida doesn’t have its own sovereign currency and bond market. Florida will be taken down economically with the Minsky Moment just the same as California and Seattle. The real estate boom in Florida will make the bust all the much worse. It is 1929 all over again.

> “Our computer has NEVER been beaten by anyone, even me. It sees the future because it is monitoring everything. So while people argue over what they “think” will happen, Socrates just plugs away and lacks that human emotion that interferes with objectivity.”

I certainly don’t dispute how prescient it has been. But those are interpretations after the events. How do we know that your interpretations of the Forecast Arrays are correct? Do you have a Forecast Array for U.S. interest rates? Would I be able to access that if I upgrade to the $150 monthly subscription level?
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...o-Drop-to-0-in-2023/

> “bro i dont't understand your chart trading at 28K?? please post an updated chart, also this is a book to read it's too long KISS Keep It Short and Sweet so we can understand. What do you expect a relief rallye, the bottom , a drop? thanks”

@vriviera, okay mutual respect earns my response, bro. This idea has been superseded by the one below. The one below is currently under reconsideration per its latest updates. The ongoing updates on this published idea (the one you are commenting on) are just reaffirming the crises I foresee and documenting the malevolence causing this global train wreck.

Comment:
Two relevant articles:

Today’s “Emergency” Fed Meeting Isn’t Anything Special
(note it was special in the way I have explained, but not for the expectation the author has)

Stocks Jump 3% on Fed Emergency Meeting
Comment:
The U.S. 10Y Treasury yield had a massive drop from slightly over 4% peak down to 3.58% today.

There is no bearish RSI divergence on the monthly (!!!), but there is on the weekly. That indicates that U.S. interest rates have topped out for the near-term, but within a month or months, they will surge much higher later.

Yet the daily and below have formed hidden, bullish RSI divergence. Indicating that there will be another relief rally perhaps even slightly higher highs. When they come back down again after that, then they will not form hidden, bullish RSI divergence so readily as the current level will serve as a fence on the charts.

Whereas the 2Y Treasury and DXY (dollar) are bearish on all time frames except the 4 hourly. This seems to indicate that the market thinks the Fed rate hiking cycle is largely completed. And the asymmetry to the 10Y (i.e. the potential unwinding of the inverted yield curve where long-end has been paying less than short-dated bonds) seems to indicate the risk of an imminent economic collapse has been pushed out into the future by the willingness of the U.K. for example to increase fiscal stimulus and Bank of England to do emergency Q.E..

This seems to point to potentially a slightly a lower low for stocks and other risk assets before a significant rally. But that rally to be aborted later when interest rates start surging higher again. The dollar could surge in November if the Euro’s Panic Cycle is to the downside. That could cause U.S. stocks to pullback, but not necessarily crash if U.S. interest rates are not rising again. And then as the dollar exhales again, with U.S. interest rates still not rising then risk-on assets could continue to appreciate into Q1 2023 as I had been anticipating.

I do not understand what could be Armstrong’s basis that U.S. interest rates will continue to rise unabated without pause?

Seems Armstrong is solely focused on his fears about international war black swan events. But his international war forecast array does not spike until 2023 (not in 2022) so could that be pushed off into 2023? Why does the Panic Cycle in the Euro in November have to be price inflationary inside the U.S.? The next monthly Panic Cycle for the DJIA forecast array is not until May 2023.
Comment:
Let’s more meticulously inspect Armstrong’s statement:

> “The 30-year bond elected a major long-term Quarter Bearish Reversal on target {…} Our models turned up on this level in March 2021 and the next Sovereign Debt Default on a grand scale is likely to unfold by 2025 {…} The Quarterly closing was a confirmation that we are looking at both a liquidity crisis in addition to a banking crisis that is most likely with an epic center in Europe {…} The peak came precisely during the 1st Quarter of 2020 with the major turning point on the ECM 2020.05 reaching 191.69 on the 30-year bond {…} As I have said many times, what bottoms or peaks with the ECM major turning points is typically very profound. That has been vindicated once against by the bond market peaking the first quarter of 2020 with the turning point. We have entered the STAGFLATION mode since March 14th as we head into April 2023.”

Implication that interest rates rise until May 2024, and STAGFLATION persists until April 2023. But that says nothing about a pause in U.S. interest rates along the way.
Comment:
Click the link in the prior update to view the ECM chart, which is important for comprehending my statement about the implication.
Comment:
When war shuts off supply chains (e.g. Strait of Hormuz, the Suez canal and/or SE Asia first island chain blockade), then there will be both price inflation and economic collapse, unless the Fed does Q.E. to finance Congress’ inevitable war machine spending to uphold the economy. Which as in WW2 also involved forced rationing to contain price inflation and conserve resources for the war machine.

Unlike after the speculative bubble ending in 1929 driven by capital flight into the dollar (after WW1) where the Great Depression of the 1930s preceded and precipitated WW2, it appears that WW3 will occur simultaneous to the current capital flight into the dollar. So now for the first time the dollar has been strong simultaneous with rising interest rates. But during WW3 the Fed Q.E. brought interest rates down despite the rising CPI from 1940 to 1942 and high CPI persisting until 1944. The DJIA didn’t start rising (after the decline from the rebound out of the 1929 crash) until CPI had peaked in 1942.

FDR had to untether the dollar from gold domestically to finance WW2 and get the world out of a depression by creating a NWO that persisted until Nixon absolved Breton Woods by defaulting on the dollar-to-gold peg internationally.

The non-NATO world must now untether from the paper dollar to finance WW3 against the dollar peg (i.e. global reserve currency) system. The Fed will have to finance the dollar-peg side of WW3.

There isn’t likely to be a -85% speculative bubble driven market crash now as was the case for the DJIA after 1929. Rather the flash crashes (expecting -63% on the S&P) will be caused by black swan events created by the W.E.F.. The next one is likely to be some forced lockdown of the banking system, perhaps to be blamed on a “Russian” cyber or tactical nuclear attack (e.g. creating cascading disruption of electrical grid). The Fed’s Q.E. will be turned into Schwab’s enslavement system where to receive your rations you must register for the CBDC so you can be dolled out your share of the government’s fiscal stimulus. We are unlikely to even have a 2024 POTUS election, so the Federal government will operating rogue anyway but nobody will be able to do anything about it because we will all (in the U.S.) be bankrupted without the Fed’s handouts.

After the posited incoming final attempt for an ATH in 2023, I think it is time to sell the stock markets and run away for at least a decade. The W.E.F. plan is to strangle the Western consumer economies with forced rationing via CBDCs (e.g. as a first indoctrination step only subsidizing a portion of their egregious electricity bills this winter in Europe) and blame it on WW3. The only speculative future may be legacy protocol Bitcoin (and to a lesser extent gold) as they rise as the alternative to the dying dollar-peg system and the inadequate Russia-Chinese alliance monetary system.

The other investments that may prosper will be anything in demand during war under a rationing regime enforced with draconian centralized central bank digital currency (CBDC) accounts. Even the price of oil fell during WW2 (← chart on the W.E.F. forum) because ostensibly consumer demand was low.

Central Bank QE

Q: Will QE continue if we end up in war? It seems there would be no choice.

A: Yes. The Fed was “directed” by the White House to carry out QE during World War II {…} As the war unfolds in Europe, the capital will flee as usual to the States. But the money supply will have to increase because the dollar will become the only viable currency still standing {…} The Fed has been raising rates to fight inflation that will fail because this has to do with shortages – not speculation {…} That said, the Fed is faced with a triple crisis – liquidity, banking stability, and an inevitable Sovereign Debt Crisis. As interest rates have risen based on domestic inflation rates, simultaneously, the higher rates have undermined both European banks as well as Emerging Markets. The Federal Reserve has become the DEFACTO central bank of the world.
Comment:
> “The non-NATO world must now untether from the paper {i.e. unanchored, fiat} dollar to finance WW3 against the dollar peg (i.e. global reserve currency) system.”

We are in the Thucydides trap. The powers-that-be are intentionally discrediting the dollar reserve currency system as they will create the conditions that usher in their legacy protocol Bitcoin as Rothschild’s 1989 Economist Magazine Phoenix rising from the ashes as predicted and planned out 33 years ago by our overlords deep behind that curtain that Armstrong can’t even access (no Margaret Thatcher had no access to this deeply hidden cabal).

The entire world will be driven to hate the current dollar-based system. The W.E.F. is being set up as scapegoats in the end, but that will not come soon enough to escape our enslavement in the Great Reset plan.

The world is moving to a new two-tier monetary system (like the one during Breton Woods where gold was not money domestically but was internationally until Nixon abrogated) with legacy protocol Bitcoin as the international tier (per famed mathematician John Nash’s Ideal Money proposal published on JStor) and domestically we will all be banned from transacting in Bitcoin and instead enslaved on fully centralized, draconian 666-like CBDCs. Welcome to the next NWO after Breton Woods.

The World is Pointing Fingers at the US for Attacking Nord Stream

Even Jeffrey David Sachs, an American economist, has come out and said on TV, as the journalists go nuts, that the US destroyed Nord Stream. Everyone I have spoken to from around the world, including high levels, all believes the US did this and I know there is a think tank that has recommended the US now take out the South Stream through Turkey. This was a formal act of war. Russia sees it that way, as does most of the world. This is an attempt to destroy the economy of Russia where energy accounts for 50% of its GDP.
Comment:
So Armstrong is clarifying in his private blog that there’s also a Panic Cycle in third week of November for NatGas. So presumably this is what leads him to believe that the Panic Cycle in the Euro in the second week of November will be to downside. Presumably those who sniff the posited coming attack on the pipelines in the Black Sea (he points out an intelligence report has recommended blowing these up to cut off Russian NatGas revenue) would dump the Euro in advance.

It makes sense that the Biden administration may want to create a distraction after the mid-term elections on November 8 if they will be significantly rigging the elections (especially for the Senate). One could speculate that they hope to establish some war time executive powers almost like martial law, perhaps to intimidate or imprison those who might be vocal about the election outcome.

Also note that Direction Change on Oct 10. Looks like I am correct about a rally in the stock markets and crypto starting in October.

Okay so there is a panic selloff in the Euro in November and NatGas spikes. But that hardly affects the U.S. price inflation situation. The E.U. would need to stimulate more thus further increasing their price inflation to compensate for the weakening Euro. They will not opt for the central bank monetizing ZIRP because hyperinflationary collapse would be antithetical to Klaus Schwab’s plan to trade debt forgiveness for servitude via CBDC enforcement. Read Think Like a Bankster. Hyperinflation never occurs where the citizens hold many valuable assets and large debts, because it would make it trivial to pay off debts.

So it seems the effect would most economic enslavement of Europe while the Euro would climb back up from 89 and the U.S. stock market rally would continue into Q1 2023 perhaps have a respite.

I still do not know why Armstrong thinks this potential action in November is the end game of WW3. It is only another salvo. The real hostilities will not break out until later in 2023. Russia is still mobilizing and such. And as Armstrong says the pressure on Putin to take the side of the hardliners has to reach the boiling point in Russia. I do not think Putin is so politically weak that they can overthrow him in the instant the Black Sea pipelines are blown up because surely at that point Putin will start to make contingent promises of lines-in-the-sand to the hard liners.
Comment:
Typo: perhaps AFTER a respite.

Add: The key is to keep the price inflation above the level of bond interest rates to bankrupt everyone.
Comment:
ADD: another key point is that if these gas pipelines are destroyed anonymously then Russia can not declare war on the U.S.A. directly without being painted by the International Community as the instigators of WW3. I suspect Putin would attempt to take some action in Lithuania and claim he is operating only secure his contracts for free passage there? Or more likely he could escalate in Ukraine (which is not NATO) to attempt to force the West to become entwined such that he able to justify direct nuke retaliation against the West? You see it is really difficult for this to escalate to a direct attack on NATO immediately. So what changes in November for the U.S. interest rates and price inflation? Nothing maybe.
Comment:
The Bitcoin bottom was June. We could have another intra-month wick down but becoming unlikely to even go below $17k.

youtu.be/ddKaLuee8SQ
(WARNING: BITCOIN JUST FLASHED RED – Do This NOW | Crypto Crew University)
Comment:
Per Crypto Crew U’s video and the following one, Bitcoin very, very likely heading up to at least its 20 WMA at ~$22.6k, although it could face some resistance at the downtrend line ~$21k. SPX likely headed up to 3900 – 4000. Then let’s look out for retest down in the week of Oct 17. Possibly we have one more bad CPI report before the CPI starts to fall rapidly in the U.S. (because we had a spike in gas prices last two weeks in September due to refinery maintenance and owner-equivalent-rents are lagging house price declines).

youtu.be/kpujB2b9JgA
(Bitcoin It's Happening Again On Price Today | Eric Krown Crypto)


Comment:
youtu.be/hfUc0-zY3VI
(The bond market is sensing an end to the Fed rate hikes, says Anthony Scaramucci | CNBC Television)
Comment:
I think he could be right that bottomed already, but might have a final capitulation after a bounce. He may change his mind if the SPX makes a 10% move in 2 weeks. He will realize it is too fast.

youtu.be/24QNHGcIygw
(Eric Johnston's about face on the markets | CNBC Television)
Comment:
Highly recommend watching entire video on double-speed. Ron Walker discusses the possibilities but leans heavily to that we are near to a bottom if not already. He personally believes will come back down to 3200 – 3400 one final time after this bounce.

youtu.be/MaW5zEyqnSI?t=1003
(This Correctly Called The Stock Market Top & Predicted The CRASH Will It Call The Bottom?)
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...sh-Harmonic-forming/

If that’s a Gartley then the D bottom has completed:


If it’s a Bat then D anytime in October or November required down to $1000:


I suppose this is an inexact art.
Comment:
My hypothesis (based partly on what Ron Walker said) is that markets may move back up to their 20 WMA on this bounce. BTC and ETH are ~12% below their 20 WMA. DOGE only 5%. And ADA 43%!!!! So we should probably be holding more ADA than DOGE at least.

Comment:
The spiking dollar and interest rates has unleashed massive instability in the banking system, especially in Europe. These central banks will pivot much sooner than the market is currently expecting. Effectively they have already pivoted to some degree, e.g. the Fed emergency meeting.

youtu.be/KagY6ZIlNQk
(Get Your Money Out! Lehman 2.0 Event is About to Crash the Global Banking System | Steven Van Metre)
Comment:
youtu.be/r0rdi-XP2h8
(This is Exactly What Happened in 2007. | We Are on the VERGE of a Major Market Move | Game of Trades)
Comment:
Finally OPTICALARTdotCOM turns slightly bullish for the next few days.

youtu.be/99qEFc0yGTc?t=670
Comment:
youtu.be/eVwuiPsc95Y
(BILLIONAIRE SAYS BITCOIN HAS BOTTOMED (INSANE PREDICTION) | Altcoin Daily)
Comment:
We gave a gap up on DJIA and S&P today. So I say very likely after this bounce the price will come back down again to fill that gap at least.
Comment:
Seasonality would indicate a significant pullback in November. So I don’t see any catastrophe on the horizon if the Euro and NatGas have a Panic Cycle in November. Ron Walker is expecting S&P rise to 3852 then dump to 3400 – 3500 for final bottom in October.

youtu.be/I367f1UxFok?t=73 ← click for seasonality chart
(How Low Will The Stock Market CRASH? S&P 500 CRASH WAVE 5 Projections & Price Targets - Elliott Wave | Ron Walker)
Comment:
twitter.com/gameoftr.../1577342788282089472
(Game of Trades: The number of people sitting on the sidelines is astonishing.)

twitter.com/gameoftr.../1577380535588061184
(Game of Trades: Hedge funds are short at record levels.)
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There may not be any more updates from me. Apparently there’s some concerted effort to censor me.

I use Tradingview informally. Have no desire to aid and abet that sort of behavior by playing Whac-A-Mole with the legion of midwit ants.
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Will sneak in one more update.

Had a moment to study the study the charts more carefully. BTC is potentially still bullish on the daily and 4-hourly. Might get another bounce this week perhaps up to 3850 S&P and ~$21k BTC. Not sure of that, just a possibility. So I repurchased some BTC.

On the weekly and monthly I can’t help but lean towards there could be one more capitulation wick down despite the massive bearish sentiment. But a bull trap this week back to the upside would be a perfect setup for the Panic Cycle predicted for the following week of Oct 17. I can still visualize a bearish triangle formation and a breakdown on the monthly stochastic RSI hinting at a repeat of October 2018. A double-top leads to a double bearish triangle? One final wick down to $15 – 16k would be perfect to form a very strong bullish RSI divergence on the weekly chart. A last gasp bear trap rally on the dollar and U.S. interest rates would be fitting. Would get even more retail to capitulate bearish before the whipsaw, slingshot back up. Then another Panic Cycle on the Euro in mid-November.

Nobody knows for sure and $19.4k is not a bad price. I am reasonably confident that BTC will be heading much higher eventually sometime in Q1 2023.

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???

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This will probably be censored:

www.tradingview.com/...ound-209-big-upside/

Unless it breaks out above downtrend line, beware of one more drop to 147 after any bounce this week. Else a pullback to said line. Note ADA and DOGE have the similar bullish, declining, narrowing wedge underneath a downtrend line.
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Armstrong has that lower $24.2k level on his private blog chart, but I really doubt going that low. Armstrong says watch $25 – 26k, but I think rather $26.5 – 27.5k only is the target for the Oct 17 Panic Cycle week.

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www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS1y-ZCK...

> “If “something breaks bad”, a pivot isn’t going to fix it. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a complete breakdown of the USA economy. People who’ve saved $ for 40 years aren’t going to stay “civilized” when their retirement funds disappear. January 6 will look like a cakewalk. It’s already happening in EU. Only a matter of time before civil unrest spreads to the states. 🍿”

@Lysergicaciddiethylamideaddict the U.S. economy can not break down catastrophically for as long as the government cum Fed can print more dollars and the world is willing to eat those dollars. The Thucydides Trap will require a WW3 to hand-off the superpower mantle to China. Until then the dollar rules the roost.
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www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ub6zP6q2...

> @S. Moore Many of us spoke before Congress with issues such as the Fairness Doctrine along with other important issues. We wrote letters and marched...We spoke at school boards & political meetings. We rallied and gave speeches. We spoke out and called people in government. We promoted talk radio....The problem is an uninformed, uninterested society who cannot care less. The schools indoctrinated along with all media & Hollywood. IMO, most people would not understand this issue, muchless all the other important issues that control our every day lives..

@K Foster upvoted. But your mistake was talking and politics. Politics is always failure directed to the least common denominator. Instead we need the opt-in crypto Networked State. I’m building.
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May the force be with us.

I remain a founding stock State National American citizen by birth — not a vassal of the United States Incorporated papal legal fiction:

tasa.americanstatenationals.org

annavonreitz.com/

This can never be taken away from me by any impostor government abetted by Abraham Lincoln’s illegal Lieber Code martial law. My lateral ancestor Isaac Shelby was a key Revolutionary War general. And my direct ancestors served in the first Mississippi State militia.
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www.tradingview.com/...Something-like-this/

You been chainsmoking with Coldplay? Armstrong’s Panic Cycle for the week of Oct 17 to the upside and not a final capitulation. Hmm. Everyone is far too bearish. I was also contemplating maybe a bull trap bounce this week and then tease a major crash next week with a bear trap.
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www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS1y-ZCK...

> > The bond market already priced in the future terminal interest rates. Markets are forward looking. The market implosion will not come until later in 2023 when the economy has an employment recession. The markets are highly oversold and much lower than they should be. Everyone is illogically bearish.

> “@S. Moore oversold didn't matter in 2008, we will bottom out at 2018 levels”

@Oh Word? did not have the levels fear at this juncture in 2008. Yes 2018 levels when the unemployment recession finally comes later in 2023. But first back up for very significant rally into Q1 2023, possibly a new ATH. Note probably one more leg of capitulation first. Consume Ron Walker’s and Game of Trades’ channels.
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www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS1y-ZCK...

> “@S. Moore we are no where near the same level of fear as 2008, people claim record high puts but forget people are also buying massive calls at the "bottom." Fear is when no one wants to touch a stock again. We need the capitulation part for a temporary bottom that later gets taken out from people having to sell their investments in order to survive. 2018 is a bit more organic levels compared to the stimulus bump from covid in 2020”

@Oh Word? The AAII survey registered the highest bearish sentiment (60%) in its entire history since 1987. Indeed the capitulation in late 2023 will be as you describe but for now back up we go. You are correct that we might not have enough retail capitulation yet and so maybe one final leg down this month. You be caught chasing it up after that, always selling all the way up buying temp-highs and selling pullbacks thinking it will crash. This how the greater fools end up buying the top when we sell in Q1 2023. There is $4 trillion of accumulated savings from the pLandemic that has no where to go but back into the stock market.
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www.tradingview.com/...Mid-term-projection/

Did you invent a yet unnamed harmonic pattern? The only applicable pattern I know is the Shark pattern. Which would project ~4800 – 4920 at any time. Also the bottom would be up to ~30 points lower. I could envision ~4800 by March/April, a summer correction to ~4200 followed by a rally to ~4800 – 4920 the remainder of 2023. Then an egregious -63% flash crash in 2024 mimicking the pLandemic amplified by 1.75×. Martin Armstrong’s Socrates A.I. Yearly Forecast Array for the S&P has a Direction Change in 2024 and again in 2025. He asserts I think correctly that there can’t be a -90% crash as was the case in the Great Depression because that required a multi-year, deflationary shift to Treasury bonds. Whereas at this time with global stagflation there’s been a flight from U.S. Treasury bonds because interest rates have been rising and are projected to rise to ~6+% into 2026/7. Armstrong is ostensibly only focused on the Aggregate row of said Forecast array which only exhibits a decline for 2022. He might be ignoring those Direction Changes and the Monthly Forecast arrays might exhibit some Panic Cycles for the posited -63% crash. Armstrong’s reasoning is correct in that the only way for the powers-that-be to manufacture deep crashes on the S&P is to create some kind of egregious “black swan” (actually false-flags) event which creates a temporary stampede to the safety of bonds. I posit that the launch of a nuclear weapon might do it?

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The Shark bottom thesis seems quite plausible with the coming rally to 0.885 to 1.13 of the distance back up to the prior ATH. The DJIA overshot its posited Shark bottom slightly though. If this is correct then Armstrong is incorrect about a significantly lower low incoming in October or November.


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Armstrong sees his Socrates’ Panic Cycles for the Euro and Natural Gas in November and seems to be convinced that the dollar is going to make its final peak in 2022. He seems convinced that the stock markets will move significantly lower before rallying in 2023. He blogs that everyone will be screaming that it is 1929 again, and that will be a bear trap.

But why would the final peak in the dollar be in 2022? The other major nations are taking actions to reflate. The other nations’ ammunition might not be fully depleted yet, for as long as global trade is still functioning. Why would Putin make a bold move so hastily when his 300,000 troops call up presumably requires training time. Why would he initiate a major offensive during the Fall rains which will make Ukraine too muddy?

The charts seem to be disagreeing with Armstrong’s interpretation of those Panic Cycles. Looks like the Panic Cycle will be in the positive directions, not in the terrorist bombing of more pipelines direction that Armstrong fears for November.

The EURUSD has bullish Gartley reversal pattern and bullish RSI divergence on the weekly and monthly:


Natural Gas has a Shark pattern projection to $3:

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The posited Shark harmonic pattern implies that the S&P will only decline slightly more to 3520 – 3545. There’s already hidden, bullish divergence on the 4 hourly and a drop below 3560 would convert it to regular, bullish divergence, which is already present on the weekly and daily, but would also create another drive of it on the daily as well. I think either Ron Walker’s wave #4 isn’t complete and bounce here, then back down again for Armstrong’s Panic Cycle week of Oct 17 possibly giving us the significantly lower low that is posited for the 5 wave correction. Or that it’s not a 5 wave correction and wave C of A-B-C is completing now with the the Panic Cycle next week to the upside. Either way the bottom is very likely in October or at the latest mid-November. And I very much doubt Bitcoin will drop below $15k (~25 – 40% odds of $15k) and ~$17k (~50% odds of $17k). In the worst case would be $13.9k but I put only ~5 – 15% odds on that. The market participants are far too bearish right now. I will follow-up in my next message for more reasons the bottom is near.

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Jerry Manders (the mathematician) is becoming very bullish:

www.tradingview.com/u/JerryManders/
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youtu.be/xt8se43gN5I ← click to view chart

The 5 year forward inflation expectations chart leads CPI by 3 months and is suggesting that the Oct 13 CPI report will shock to the downside.

But Kevin is attempting to develop a theory that it will be different this time and instead inflation expectations will rise.

He posits that homeowners who are sensitive to rising mortgage rates set those expectations, but renters who are not sensitive keep spending on credit because they expect inflation to come down thus sustaining the inflation.

That’s tortured “logic.”
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BoE to end emergency bond buying starting on the week of Oct 17. Could that cause another panic spike up in the dollar?

youtu.be/65lWzTojcnk
(DIRE Warning from Bank of England: "You have 3 Days Left.")

EDIT: This might be FUD. But the stampede was a contagion after the new administration decided to increase spending and cut taxes. The BoE just stepped into normalize interest rates at a higher level they believe is commensurate with the increase inflation that will result from the additional spending of the new UK administration. If the U.S. interest rates have peaked and the UK interest rates are stable and thus competitive then this could be a pivot and the British pound could recover. If the pound will recover then who wants to stampede out to the dollar? Also market participants have had time during the liquidity respite offered by the BoE, to pay for hedging insurance if they’re vulnerable to contagion risk.
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www.armstrongeconomi...world-share-markets/

Armstrong still thinks the Panic Cycles in November into the November 8 U.S. midterm election will correspond to a selloff in markets. He is expecting the low to be in November. He also cites the ‘bearish quarterly reversals’, which presumably means in normal terminology a bearish engulfing 3rd quarter compared to the 2nd quarter. We also had bearish engulfing on Bitcoin, but Bitcoin has defied a bullish engulfing in the past and trended the opposite direction. So a bearish engulfing can also mark exhaustion and not necessarily the start of a trend. In fact, if it is the start of a trend then there should be multiple bearish quarters ahead, which seems to make no sense as even Armstrong is ostensibly expecting a rally into Q1 2023.

Armstrong is also citing the potential for a bearish engulfing close to the yearly candle, but 2022 has not ended yet. That is a bit premature of him. There is still the possibility of the usual seasonal midterm election year rally in Q4 which would obviate the bearish engulfing candle on the yearly chart.

Armstrong could possibly be entirely misinterpreting the Panic Cycle in November. If the Republicans take the House then the markets will assume that spending will be controlled and thus demand driven inflation will moderate. This could be a pivot for U.S. Treasuries and the dollar. Thus the Panic Cycle in the Euro could be a massive bounce, not a crash.

Also it sure feels like the Panic Cycle for the week of Oct 17 is going to be the upside, not to the downside. The market participants are far too bearish and there are a massive quantity of puts on the market. There is very likely to be a short squeeze soon. Possibly Oct 17 could be a wick lower then reverse to the upside, or vice versa.

The 5 year inflation expectations chart leads CPI by 3 months and thus the next CPI report should continue the downward trajectory. And the November report should really drop precipitously as declining home and preowned car prices start to really bite. As well the seasonal back-to-school spending spree ended and consumers stop spending to save for Christmas. Also vacation spending should have been winding down. Must of the CPI was in leisure and hospitality. People were enjoying as much as they could given they suffered so much during the pLandemic. But vacationers do get saturated and eventually decide to go back to work and prepare for winter.

Seems Armstrong is expecting Russia to immediately deploy tactical nukes and knock out Europe’s electrical grid this winter. But I highly doubt that. Russia is moving forward methodically. They have only now shifted their war to a counter-terrorism operation in the whole of Ukraine. Russia not going to escalate to an attack on NATO in 2022. What is Armstrong smoking?

Also seems Armstrong is letting fear overcome him. He seems to fear that the Demonrats will take some extreme actions to try to overcome the election process. I do think the Senate elections will be rigged. But it will probably be more difficult to rig all of the House elections because they are much more localized.

Also the harmonic patterns are indicating the the stock markets have already bottomed or nearly do. The harmonic pattern for natural gas indicates it is headed down to $3. I see that Japan for example will plan to go modularized, localized, perfectly safe nuclear power (with a special helium cooled reactor that will supply hydrogen fuel for industry) and completely remove their dependence on natural gas. China is building 170 new nuclear plants.

The best time to buy is at maximum FUD.

Maybe Armstrong is correct. Unfortunately I do not have access to all of his Forecast Arrays. Maybe he has observed some correlation that causes him to take a bearish interpretation of the Panic Cycles.
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Armstrong is also writing more long-term about an eventual panic out of bonds entirely because governments will default on their debt. That has no relevance whatsoever heading into 2024. The U.S. is no where near defaulting. The current focus is on price inflation and at what level with the U.S. bonds peak in yield, so that investors will start buying them again. And the current focus is also about the weakness of economies abroad, thus their low interest rates thus the strong dollar. But the UK has stimulated. And China is preparing to stimulate after Xi is reelected at the CCP Congress starting Oct 16.

The U.S. can not default on sovereign bonds until the dollar is no longer the world’s reserve currency. I think Armstrong has entirely the wrong model in his head. The strong dollar is going to wreck the world and usher in WW3. The focus has to be on the timing for WW3.

Armstrong thinks there will not be another flash crash because bonds are also a bad investment when price inflation is rising. But that is not the case in a flash crash scenario such as the pLandemic. There will probably be another flash crash probably in 2024 and it will probably be -63% of the S&P. Even Armstrong has two directional changes in 2024 and 2025 on his Forecast Array and also an increase in Overnight Volatility in 2024.

Also it makes no sense that the markets would moon into stocks and not also into Bitcoin. Yet Steve @ Crypto Crew University has clearly shown there is a 5.3× bullish move off each major low of Bitcoin. So if the low will be significantly lower than the June $17.5k bottom then the top in ~2025 would be lower than the 2021 ATH. A drop to $13k is possible, but $10k is irrational at this juncture. A flash crash to $10k in 2024 is plausible — repeating the pattern from 2019–20.

Also Steve may be forgetting that there was that precipitous rally from $3 to $14k in 2019 before the 2020 flash crash. I am expecting that to repeat with another precipitous rally incoming. Then a horizontal 2023 with a rally into the end of the year then another flash crash in perhaps March 2024.

Remember Craig “Faketoshi” Wright warned that the ANYONECANSPEND attack would correspond with a halving event. The next halving event is projected to be in February 2024.

Liz Truz is under pressure to increase social welfare spending and thus increase inflation in the UK, which will be bullish for UK interest rates and thus also for the British currency:

www.armstrongeconomi...s-approval-plummets/
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Have you all observed how prescient Jeremy Manders was? And he says the bottom is now.

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Martin Armstrong almost screwed me up. He was trying to make us bearish and cautious. I am really doubting his comprehension of what is really going on.

The mathematician was also prescient on Bitcoin and is now turning bullish.



The markets all set and ready to turn bullish. We may have one more wick down this week on the S&P to 3520 – 3545. And BTC may wick down to $17.5 – 18.4k.

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www.armstrongeconomi...e-blog-dow-v-nasdaq/

This I agree with this. Armstrong points out that international capital flows will prefer the blue chips stock on DJIA so it would bottom first. And true that capital has no where to go but into stocks, except on flash crashes then into bonds. But eventually that $trillions in capital is going into legacy protocol Bitcoin as the Thucydides Trap plays out.

Note though that Nasdaq and crypto will outperform the DJIA on the rallies. And the Fed will have no choice but to Brrrr. Never will the Fed be able to stop itself from enjoining the destruction of the current monetary system.

And thus there will not be any egregious crash until the entire economy is shut down again in 2024 due to nuclear war and/or a cyber attack by “Russia” on the Western banking system.
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I warned you guys yesterday the ADA breaking down was a bad sign.

youtu.be/O-Lo6TeGtdU?t=273
(Inflation Nightmare! Disastrous CPI Report LIVE | Meet Kevin)
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Ostensibly the Shark pattern is not useful for targeting the bottom as it can extend even to 1.618. Rather is it for targeting the top of rally that follows.

harmonics.app/harmon...rk-pattern-in-forex/
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I think we will bottom in the mid-to-high $17000s. Bounce to ~$22k, then decline to a higher-low in November. Then up we go into March/April 2021.

youtu.be/KFZbvhiFR-Q?t=297 ← click for chart of rings

www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFZbvhiF...
(Comments on Dropping some facts about where bitcoin is headed! | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

Bear trap. Going to ride that aqua ring up until April 2023 then come down. Central banks and governments are being forced to pivot because the financial system is breaking.
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I’m trying to develop a historically consistent model of the current monetary reset and incoming WW3. I had been hoping for Armstrong to lead the way to comprehensive understanding but he has not yet articulated a coherent, holistic model. Let’s see if I can assist.

1. Deflation is not possible until the reserve currency of the world is not held by the strongest economy. Deflation was possible after 1929 because although capital was fleeing to the U.S. because it had the safest economy outside of any warzone (nearly impossible to attack the U.S. except with nukes) but the U.S. dollar was not yet the world’s reserve currency. Thus sovereign bonds will be a very poor investment (other than any flash crash in markets due to black swan event) because interest rates must rise abroad else their currencies implode (driving price inflation to the moon) cratering their economies. The periphery nations (i.e. not the U.S.) must either borrow-and-spend to avoid the implosion that high interest rates and/or imploding currencies will impose. Or for the Non-Aligned Movement nations dehitch from the dollar and grow their way out (which the geriatric boomer bulge demographics cum socialist, unfunded retirement liabilities in the developed world can not do). And ultimately some countries will even default on their sovereign bonds. (Tangentially: Either Americans stop Brandon’s intentional forcing of Russia to nuclear war, or Russia, China, N. Korea and Iran will eventually have no choice but to desperately and fatalistically break the U.S.S.A. and all of NATO with nukes)

2. The turn of the 20th century was the transfer of the Anglo-Saxon empire to the U.S. from Europe. The 1970s was the rise of egregious demand for resources as the global boomers demographic bulge entered the workforce and prime spending years. First there was stagflation as the resource intensive countries (e.g. Russia, Iran, OPEC) asserted their pricing power under the scapegoat of the U.S. support for Israel. But then interest rates rose to nosebleed levels in the early 1980s which caused for example the former Soviet Union to collapse which broke the solidarity of the resource intensive countries. This consequent cheap labor and cheap resources peace dividend is what fed the Western debt bubble since. But that peace dividend and that form of globalization has come to an abrupt end, because the global debt bubble reached the Minsky Moment and the now we have another demographic bulge (in the developing countries) entering the work force and prime spending years competing for resources. The developed world is being intentionally thrown to the dogs because there’s no plausible economic future. The Thucydides Trap is underway and will result in the end of the U.S. dollar reserve currency and Anglo-Saxon empire. Also will maybe end up as Deagel.com predicted back in ~2014 that NATO countries will lose 50 – 75% of their populations to self-immolating economic collapse, war and pestilence (aka societalcide). I’m thinking possibly widespread radiation sickness from nuclear war. Note Carl Sagan’s nuclear winter hypothesis is probably nonsense. And south of the equator would be spared of radiation fallout as the jet streams don’t cross it.
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Thus, we are in the Austrian Crack-up Boom. The developed world nation-states have no choice but to enslave themselves in borrow-and-spend with their central banks self-immolating by buying all the sovereign debt. At the end the developed world central banks will hold all of it.

Imagine as interest rates rise the pension funds who were required to hold bonds at near zero interest rates will blow up. The (at least E.U.) banking system will blow up (which is a reason the W.E.F. is promulgating an incoming cyber attack on the banks as a scapegoat). The consumer will blow up. The Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Bank of Australia already pivoted, as well the governments already piling on subsidies and soon more bailouts. The individual E.U. nations with their sovereign bonds issued in Euros are next to pivot to this along with the ECB. The last to pivot will be the U.S.S.A. as our economy also can’t withstand these high interest rates. Are you picking up what I am throwing down? The developed world nations will stimulate into stagflation and will not tolerate a -95% stock market meltdown and deflation.

Yet this stagflation environment is also putting enormous economic and thus internal political pressure on Russia, China, N.Korea, Iran — all of the Non-Aligned Movement nations. Thus the world bifurcates into a WW3 because those nations also need the scapegoat of WW3 to sell their populations on a scapegoat (e.g. covidiocy and next patriotism) instead of regime change. Armstrong is incorrect to frame the war with Russia (and soon China et al) as one-sided instigation by Brandon and the Neocons. China needs this WW3 too and has been manipulating the situation to help bring it about.

Thus there will be some black swan event in 2024 that causes a -63% flash crash on the S&P. For a blip in time mimicking March 2020, bonds will spike to massive profits. And China will sell into that rally for sure. The Thucydides Trap is underway and the West will self-immolate while the East rises to be the economic future of the world after Armstrong’s 2032 ECM peak (of the socialistic, decrepit Western civilization).

As Armstrong rightfully points out that $50T in global capital has no place to go but the private sector, i.e. stocks. And that will also include legacy protocol Bitcoin eventually as the future monetary reset of the world takes form with culmination of WW3 and the Thucydides Trap towards the end of this decade.

So we must buy the dips on the U.S. stock markets because they will rise even with an overall rise in the level of interest rates and dollar, because capital has nowhere else to go. But there will be egregious volatility also.

We need to be on the lookout for another leg down or a pullback in November as the E.U. and ECB are likely the next to experience a Panic Cycle in their situation akin to the recent pivots by the U.K., Japan and Australia. Once that is out of the way then the U.S. stock markets can turn bullish as the U.S. equities are currently far oversold relative to the current state of the economy. Eventually the U.S. economy will also roll over but there are some months to go before that and the U.S. govt is likely to simulate and Fed likely to accommodate over the summer 2023 to spur another rally into Fall 2023 before the flash crash likely in 2024 due to some black swan events that surface because of said need for scapegoats.

The implications ahead are dire for the West in particular because the scapegoats have the West as the target and the government becoming the entire economy looms which means totalitarianism, pestilence, and perhaps even mega-death. You have been warned to GTFO before the exit doors slam shut.
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Even with the central banks going insane and buying up all the sovereign debt (and remember the end game is as John Titus’ research revealed that BlackRock already owns the Fed and will ostensibly parlay this into corporate-fascist takeover of the U.S. Treasury Dept as Western civilization descends into a 666 technocracy panopticon), hyperinflation can only occur if the citizens entirely lose confidence in their government cum central banks AND ALSO they have the ability to flee with their capital. But the powers-that-be (e.g. Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, the Neocons, Brandon et al) have already prepared for that and will impose capital controls preventing capital from fleeing. That is if you do not get your capital out pronto before the stampede begins (probably imminently) then you will not have access to your funds except as doled out in small morsels periodically per capital control limits. This is how they implement the “you will own nothing and be happy only as a renter receiving a small rationing allowance via the CBDC.” The Carbon Credits scam will also be the scapegoat for the rationing. Westerners will live out a dismal life. Boomers will probably just choose to sign-off from life, thus Deagel’s 50+% population immolation.

Of course this will blamed on some scapegoat such as Russian hackers creating a cyber attack on the banking system or whatever. And those who want liquidity will have to adopt the soon-to-be, newly introduced 666-like central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) which in essence means BlackRock will own you and control every financial transaction you conduct.
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Note regarding #1 that the Fed (or actually the markets) made a mistake by lowering interest rates in the 1920s thinking that would discourage international capital from fleeing Europe to the dollar, which just caused the stock market to go parabolic because the capital still fled. As the Fed (or actually the markets) raised interest rates capital was able to flee from the stock market bubble to the bonds. Subsequently FDR was able to combat the strong dollar problem with the threat of followed by then the actual order to confiscate gold and devalue the dollar overnight as priced in gold. Thus the world was able to avoid the immediate economic and political pressures of a runaway strong dollar because the dollar was not an embedded reserve currency all over the world and instead the capital flows were speculative. Whereas now the entire world is holding bonds (i.e. debt) denominated in dollars and the dollar debt financial system can’t be unwound without also the Thucydides Trap (i.e. WW3 and end of the U.S. empire). Thus it is impossible for the U.S. to experience deflation for as long as the Fed can prevent it because the entire world must eat dollars. This strong dollar vortex forces the other consumer (i.e. non-export dominant) nations to self-immolate with borrow-and-spend (so as to raise their interest rates and prop up their economies) because otherwise their currencies will collapse (i.e. those nations are on the verge of hyperinflationary wreck if their populations can not be enslaved in CBDCs, rationing and capital controls). The exporting and low consumption nations of the Non-Aligned Movement don’t want to be enslaved and dragged down by the dollar empire’s Great Reset. So they are participating (wittingly or unwittingly whatever the case is behind the curtain) in the scapegoat of an enveloping WW3 which will bifurcate the world’s financial systems to large degree, but with legacy protocol Bitcoin rising from the ashes (as the Phoenix originally promised in the 1989 Economist Magazine cover story) to be the basis of some international trade and settlement regime that (eventually) subsumes said bifurcation regime.

Debt reset is the end game for the aforementioned consumer nations. The debt reset could have potentially taken the form of Armstrong’s proposed Solution wherein bond holders received some new backing (e.g. real estate options) in exchange for taking a haircut on their holdings in the form of longer terms or whatever. But that would have wasted an excellent opportunity for a crisis to grab more power by the powers-that-be. Of course political collectives are a power vacuum that can only be captured by the most ruthless. So instead the plan appears to be that Westerners will be enslaved in a panopticon whereby they must accede to sign away all their future right to private property in exchange for debt forgiveness and to be enrolled into the rationing Carbon Credits scam scheme. In this way the powers-that-be hope to enslave all the capital and siphon it to themselves which they will then use to finance their bankster operation in the developing world as they prepare over the coming decades to complete the 666 totalitarian enslavement of the developing world also. It remains to be seen how successful their plans will be and what if anything the moribund, pitiful Western sheepeople can do to stop them.
Comment:
Note regarding #1 that the Fed (or actually the markets) made a mistake by lowering interest rates in the 1920s thinking that would discourage international capital from fleeing Europe to the dollar, which just caused the stock market to go parabolic because the capital still fled. As the Fed (or actually the markets) raised interest rates capital was able to flee from the stock market bubble to the bonds. Subsequently FDR was able to combat the strong dollar problem with the threat of followed by then the actual order to confiscate gold and devalue the dollar overnight as priced in gold. Thus the world was able to avoid the immediate economic and political pressures of a runaway strong dollar because the dollar was not an embedded reserve currency all over the world and instead the capital flows were speculative. Whereas now the entire world is holding bonds (i.e. debt) denominated in dollars and the dollar debt financial system can’t be unwound without also the Thucydides Trap (i.e. WW3 and end of the U.S. empire). Thus it is impossible for the U.S. to experience deflation for as long as the Fed can prevent it because the entire world must eat dollars. This strong dollar vortex forces the other consumer (i.e. non-export dominant) nations to self-immolate with borrow-and-spend (so as to raise their interest rates and prop up their economies) because otherwise their currencies will collapse (i.e. those nations are on the verge of hyperinflationary wreck if their populations can not be enslaved in CBDCs, rationing and capital controls). The exporting and low consumption nations of the Non-Aligned Movement don’t want to be enslaved and dragged down by the dollar empire’s Great Reset. So they are participating (wittingly or unwittingly whatever the case is behind the curtain) in the scapegoat of an enveloping WW3 which will bifurcate the world’s financial systems to large degree, but with legacy protocol Bitcoin rising from the ashes (as the Phoenix originally promised in the 1989 Economist Magazine cover story) to be the basis of some international trade and settlement regime that (eventually) subsumes said bifurcation regime.

Debt reset is the end game for the aforementioned consumer nations. The debt reset could have potentially taken the form of Armstrong’s proposed Solution wherein bond holders received some new backing (e.g. real estate options) in exchange for taking a haircut on their holdings in the form of longer terms or whatever. But that would have wasted an excellent opportunity for a crisis to grab more power by the powers-that-be. Of course political collectives are a power vacuum that can only be captured by the most ruthless. So instead the plan appears to be that Westerners will be enslaved in a panopticon whereby they must accede to sign away all their future right to private property in exchange for debt forgiveness and to be enrolled into the rationing Carbon Credits scam scheme. Are you picking up what I am throwing down? Are you seriously contemplating owning anything including land in the Western nations? Good luck because if the W.E.F. with their Agenda 2030 succeeds then you will not be able to hold onto that private property.

In this way the powers-that-be hope to enslave all the capital and siphon it to themselves which they will then use to finance their bankster operation in the developing world as they prepare over the coming decades to complete the 666 totalitarian enslavement of the developing world also. It remains to be seen how successful their plans will be and what if anything the moribund, pitiful Western sheepeople can do to stop them.
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...2023-Year-From-Hell/

@goodblackcat, I had sold after you were buying because I saw ADA was breaking down. That indicated a move back down to high $17000s was imminent. There’s still hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the VIX on the daily until above 35. Also bearish RSI divergence on the S&P on the 4 hourly. I think one more thrust down still incoming. I still think low-to-mid 3400s is likely. Bitcoin has essentially bottomed. May make one more wick down to ~$17.9k. Expecting a rally to $22 – 23k, starting next week. And then a pullback to a higher low in early-to-mid November. Still possible for the dollar to spike to 116 in November. After that, rockets into end of Q1 2023. Was only a short covering rally yesterday. Not sustainable. Shorts will be reloading on the way down thus driving it down and get trapped.

Comment:
Email sent to Ron Walker @ The Chart Pattern Trader…

Ron Walker the reason you can not detect that Bitcoin already bottomed is the same reason you did not see the bullish RSI divergence in June. That is you are not looking at the CME chart. Bitcoin is run by the institutional money in the futures markets, not retail spot trading. Please up your game.


Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...2023-Year-From-Hell/

@goodblackcat, hidden, bearish RSI divergence on the DJIA. Needs come down and form a higher low to create bullish, hidden RSI divergence. Which would also create a bullish W pattern bottom.

Comment:
Bitcoin is near to an October bottom. June was the likely overall bottom. I can envision a rally to ~$22k at the bottom of OPTICALARTdotCOM’s significant Fib ring then declining again in November to make a higher low. The decline in November might be due to a further crisis in the Euro with the dollar spiking to 116 in an bullish exhaustion capitulation.

I can’t rule out Bitcoin Dominance rising as it did in 2019, although the technical patterns seem to imply altcoins are more bullishly postured at this comparative juncture. This means you should not be entirely overweight altcoins.

1. Bitcoin could top in March or April 2023 between ~$35 – 42k. Thus a confident double or perhaps up to 2.5×. (Note I think it could make a higher high late in 2023 after a significant summer correction)

2. ADA:BTC clearly has a significant bullish inverted H&S now with the right shoulder clearly defined by this week’s drop. ADA is projecting to ~$1.20 – $2.20 by March/April and most likely $1.40 – 1.80. So a confident triple and perhaps as much as 4 – 5×. Could dip to ~$0.34ish first.

3. Ditto ETH:BTC. ETH is projecting to ~$4200+. Should be a confident 3.5×, perhaps up to 4 – 5×. Could dip below $1150.

4. DOGE appears to have potentially ~2 – 8× leverage on Bitcoin. And up to ~2 – 4× leverage on Ethereum. But it’s difficult to determine what DOGE will do and when.

5. LTC is dying. It only has about ~1.4× leverage on BTC. Perhaps ~$130 – 150. At most ~$200 but I wouldn’t bank on that. SELL THIS SHITCOIN ABOVE $100. I suggested (to Finite Maz et al) to buy LTC at $4 in 2016 (and was banned from Bitcointalk.org for allegedly “shilling” LTC). It went to $350+ twice. Should have been sold as that is a M double-top projecting down to below $0.

6. Various altcoins appear to have POTENTIALLY (but not assured) ~3 – 4× leverage over BTC, such as DOT, ENJ, LINK, MANA, NEAR, SOL and VET. Perhaps ~5× for SAND. But many of the others on the prior list I don’t consider to have a reasonable risk versus reward. FTM may be the best speculative gamble alternative to DOGE with potentially ~7× on BTC. Tokens such as SuperFarm (SUPER) looks quite risky but maybe up to ~10 – 12× on BTC, especially if they get listed on a major exchange as they can currently only be obtained on a DEX such as Uniswap. SUPER is currently ~$0.12 and it peaked $4.78 in 2021.
Comment:
Another metric for showing the U.S. stock markets are oversold. I expect earnings reports season next week to be not as bad as everyone expected.

youtu.be/NYrLBr7FFc0?t=242 ← click for chart
(This Signal Was Triggered for the First Time Since 2020. | SP500 Collapse is Not Imminent... | Game of Traders)
Comment:
MUST LISTEN from the 4:30 minute juncture forward. Especially focus from 28 minutes forward. This explains also why CBDCs will be adopted by bond investors. They also explain why crypto is going to boom massively after the November 8 U.S. mid-term elections.

I listened on 1.75× speed.

youtu.be/ExrcOWdI1kQ?t=271
(“THIS Will Cause Bitcoin To SMASH $100,000..” | Kevin O’Leary | Crypto Banter)
Comment:
Everything has a perfected 9 count for a bottom except the dollar. Hmm. So maybe I am correct that dollar will spike to 116 in November.

youtu.be/OFqLOhZTqTQ?t=458
(Stock Market Liquidation CRASH Likely Coming Over Next 2 Weeks -S&P 500 9 Count Buy Signal Next Week | Ron Walker)
Comment:
Comment:
I am tending to agree with Armstrong about November being a potential threat. The Demonrats are losing the mid-term elections. They may want a military distraction to draw attention away from their expected attempt to rig the elections again. If the markets rally this week as I am expecting might be the case, then perhaps November will mark the lower low?

I have to laugh though at Armstrong not realizing that China is probably the mastermind behind much of this and might also be using Putin to accomplish their goals. Remember the Chinese are playing 5D chess per Sun Tzu’s Art of War.

www.armstrongeconomi...start-world-war-iii/

“China will NOT stand by and allow Russia to be defeated for they know they will be next.”
Comment:
> “Alex was also telling people not to go to the capital building on Jan 6, saying it was a trap.”

I was also saying that! Alex Jones warned Trump he better disavow the vaccines (and his ventilators push which was used to murder patients) before he would be blamed for rushing them through the FDA with his Operation Warp Speed. And now the Demonrats are doing exactly that. Do you all not remember I was screaming that in early 2021 on ZeroHedge long before Alex Jones did.

youtu.be/VnigzbdN2JM
(Alex Jones just EXPOSED the truth about Trump and vaccines | Redacted with Clayton Morris)
Comment:
The bastards have pivoted from COVID medical passports to Carbon Credit tracking apps. So that is how they will lock us down is by monotonically decreasing our personal carbon credit allowance. This is one of the methods they use to apply forced rationing and artificial scarcity so that they gain power and money during the incoming Minsky Moment instead of losing it.

I wonder if they actually have the power to have authoritarian governments in the developing world come cull livestock claiming it is warming the climate? In the developed world they can easily do this by just using the corporations and chokepoints. But in the developing world individual farmers and communities might fight back violently against government thugs as they routinely do in Peru.

youtu.be/ap-pKA1mIEU
(Bill Gates just dropped MILLIONS to track every move you make | Redacted with Clayton Morris)
Comment:
Apologies for posting those prior updates to wrong idea.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-0BGpKB...
(Comment on Bitcoin price is literally pointing to $7000 | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

> this guy called 1k at 10k in 2020 just sayin'

He has lost his f-ing mind. I don’t get that result with the BLX nor the Bitcoin index charts. I can only get two lines to converge into the future. One of the other lines marks the June bottom.


Comment:
youtu.be/j1rxmzD7C_I?t=65
(Chamath Says, Smart Money JUST started BUYING | Tesla, Nvidia, AMD, Nio Stocks - Should you buy ?)

Spot on correct. We need Apple and Microsoft earnings to disappoint after upside surprises on the most of the rest of the market. And that will be the final capitulation. Microsoft releases on Oct 25. Apple on Oct 27. Down we go for final leg into the first week of November then that is the bottom.

news.microsoft.com/2...ngs-release-date-53/
Comment:
youtu.be/dRNzKOCVlAs
(CRYPTO HOLDERS: The Real Reason The Fed May Crash Global Markets in November...)

> Interesting concept but Idk if he appreciates the various ways war escalates. Especially when economics falls off the table. His idea of using the dollar to destabilize currencies could ironicaly provoke war at the same clip if not higher 😅 finance guys sometimes have a hard time seeing the forest through the wallstreet

{…}

> I think this theory of FED policy against nuclear war has one big gap. FED policy influences mainly western countries. There is little influence on the Russian people, especially those outside cities. So who's willing to start a nuclear war? Western countries or Russia? Who is threatening nuclear weapons? Russia. Influencing us not to begin nuclear war doesn't make any sense.

Weaponizing the dollar forces the Thucydides trap. The real narrative is that the powers-that-be want to maintain control despite the arrival of a global Minsky Moment. Thus all parties need WW3 as a domestic scapegoat.
Comment:
My posited interpretation of the recent, insane Janet Yellen proposal, cum recent Fed leak trial balloon through the WallStreet Journal that they will communicate a slowing of interest rate hikes at the November 1–2 Fed meeting, is the powers-that-be’s realization of implausibility to surreptitiously steal the mid-term elections via vote rigging. Too many eyes now presumably focused, at least for the hundreds of contested lower House positions.

Thus further fiscal stimulus legislation DOA, necessitating an alternative diabolical means to stimulate via the executive (e.g. the Treasury department) in defiance of the will of the American voting public for respite from the MMT which is (especially when combined with their intentional destruction of the supply chains with their fabricated faux pLandemic and stoking Ukrainian war towards WW3).

Note Yellen’s “Operation Twist” proposal implies they intend to levitate short-term interest rates in 2023 (with increased issuance) while reducing long-term interest rates (with buybacks deploying funds raised from said increased issuance), thus further exacerbating the yield curve recession signal.

The markets ostensibly are sensing this and a surge up in the risk-on stock (and perhaps also monetary alternatives such as Bitcoin and gold) markets could be possible this week front running the outcome of the election. Which would also agree with the two week lag correlation for the S&P to the recently discussed Net Liquidity epiphany. Even Martin Armstrong privately blogged yesterday finally admitting to my stance that his early November Panic Cycles could possibly be to the upside if the DJIA can clear resistance ~3250 ­– 3284.

Yet I am thinking that Ron Walker’s point about a Dow Theory divergence (transports making a lower high on this bounce while industrials made a higher high) is signally another pullback in November before continuing higher. Not clear if that will be a lower low for the S&P and/or a higher-low for the DJIA. The Fed could rug pull on that said leak.

There is a real risk that Bitcoin could surge to $22+k this week. Even $25+k later in November or early December.

Armstrong is correct to point out that the U.K. and Europe will be disemboweled by the aforementioned premeditated, intentional resultant (concomitant) stoking of inflation via the wealth effect and stimulation of more debt given the abatement of the 10Y Treasury interest rate (via said buy backs) would exacerbate demand driven aspect of inflation simultaneous with presumably ongoing, intentional escalation of supply chains destruction.

Armstrong should abandon his naive belief that the politicians are inadvertently societalciding us because they’re idiots with short-time preference only to save their own skin. Applicable perhaps to many politicians, but powers behind the (deeper) curtain exquisitely premeditated this very intentionally to transition to a 666-like NWO. They’re not failing. Armstrong is simply naive, myopic and wrong. TPTB know exactly what they’re destructively constructing — to fragment our world into thousands of political jurisdictions subservient to regional blocs (each managed akin to an unelected EU Commission) overall servile to a global institutions rising as the 1989 Economist Magazine’s Phoenix Bitcoin as the only unaligned, international reserve monetary asset (reset) in the intentionally crafted multi-polar world they’ve achieved masterfully.

I emailed Martin years prior positing the E.U. and Euro were intentionally crafted in their defunct manner, intentionally structured to fail in a path that ushers in said dystopian NWO — a premeditation in the works for decades prior now bearing fruit.

Biblical Proverbs 22:7“the borrower is slave to the lender.” Ditto 1 Samuel 8 those who embrace statism are enslaved by it.

Lurch into a dystopian world underway with the indebted sheepeople to be fully enslaved in 666 debt forgiveness in exchange for, “you will own nothing, rent everything, and be happy.”

Methinks Armstrong protest too much.

My other postulate is that MMT is just my oft-reiterated model of the process that only the most ruthless can capture power vacuums. The ability to create money out-of-thin-air (something only Bitcoin can resist, because gold is no longer viable in an Internet connected era) is a power vacuum which those who intend to hold onto such power must absolutely deploy said centralized power in the most ruthless and diabolical means possible. If they do not they will be deposed by those who will derive more power from doing so. This is why Armstrong’s oft-reiterated, naive delusion that the Fed is independent (behind the curtain) has to be utter nonsense.

Thus game theory is such that who ever wished to uphold a fiat system has no choice but to eventually strive for the Biblical Revelation end game. This is the Great Harlot system. They have no choice but to devise diabolical plans to maximize the power that they control.

The inability of humanity to admit to themselves the inviolable invariants of power vacuums and power-law distribution of fungible resources is an ineptitude of epic implications and a stumbling block of our collective iniquity.

Wish you all the fortitude and clarity of mind that your carefully, meticulously contemplated actions reflect your understanding.

(can anyone discern that I am on caffeine tonight?)
Comment:
DJIA has already hidden, bearish RSI divergence on time frames up to weekly chart. It could head a bit higher, but not likely to surmount the ~3250 critical level to remain bullish after this week.

Whereas the S&P doesn’t have such bearish divergences yet. Thus I posit the S&P will surge this week to 3910 – 4000, possibly even 4100.

All these markets including Bitcoin have bullish, RSI divergences on all time frames including the weekly and monthly. Thus lower-lows in November are not required, but remain possible with a final drive of said bullish divergence. Although higher lows with a hidden, bullish forming on the daily chart with a November pullback is also possible.

The 2Y Treasury appears to have topped, as it already had bearish RSI divergence on the weekly and the recent surge formed it again on the daily after it had lost it on the daily with the surge in September.

Thus it is only the DXY (i.e. dollar) that is still potentially lacking a bearish RSI divergence. So I could envision a final surge for the dollar to ~116.4 (or intra-day spike slightly higher) in November to form that bearish RSI on the daily chart. But with the 2Y not confirming a higher high and thus marking the end of this risk-off period we have been in since November 2021.
Comment:
Ron Walker pointed out the possibility of a bullish, inverted H & S pattern forming on the S&P with A-B-C Elliot Wave structures in play and a five wave count rebound nearly complete now with the right shoulder still to form. This seems to make a lot of sense. If Apple and Microsoft earnings disappoint later this week then a pullback into first week of November before liftoff. I also identified that Crab harmonic pattern which indicates the S&P bottom has completed and is projecting up to 5000. Ron Walker (on his The Crypto Trader) account continues to claim that Bitcoin does not have bullish RSI divergence w.r.t. its June low even though I emailed him last week and reminded him for the second time that Bitcoin CME had a bullish RSI divergence in June and again recently also making a lower low than June. Institutions are now more in control of Bitcoin and they can only use the futures market for now due to regulatory structure. Also remember Kevin O’Leary’s point that the new crypto regulation may finally pass the Congress after the mid-terms which would portend a flood of institutional money buying Bitcoin.


Comment:
Bitcoin must be above $29k on December 31. It must be.

Do you need a better guarantee than that to buy soon?

youtu.be/3dFn2ikCU1A
(WARNING: BITCOIN FIRST EVER RIGHT NOW | Crypto Crew University)
Comment:
Potential inverted H&S still in play if S&P does not move any higher, so would come back down for the right shoulder:

Comment:
Appears the S&P topped out at 3885. Back down we go to form the right shoulder of that previously posited bullish, inverted H&S pattern:

youtu.be/s6N3PWeaMP0
(Manipulation Sucks Traders Into Deadly Trap to Dump on Them | Money Time Machine)
Comment:
VIX hit my target and now have the hidden, bullish RSI divergence I was anticipating.

Comment:
I am shocked how much household wealth there still is in the U.S.A.. And that it has been deleveraging since the 2008 G.F.C..

Imagine all that coming into crypto as the sovereign debt crisis accelerates.

youtu.be/axovMWn0gTg?t=587 ← click for the chart
(The Moment We’ve All Been Waiting For: Massive SP500 Dead Cat Bounce or a V-Shaped Recovery? | Game of Trades)
Comment:
Six-day death cross implying a final flash crash for Bitcoin.

youtu.be/HT5zxdpK2V0
(NEW MEGA DEATH CROSS Quickly Approaches Bitcoin | Crypto Crew U.)
Comment:
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD

RRPOs back down again.

My guess is a slight pullback into end of the month this week and weekend, as was the case in late July, then up higher perhaps 4100 on S&P. Markets might be spooked again a bit on Friday with the PCE inflation data and also GDP tomorrow might be strong thus scaring market that Fed might not pivot:

www.marketwatch.com/...my-politics/calendar
Comment:
Alternative EW count possibility.

Comment:
Bingo!

youtu.be/S08NYpjtOp4
(The SP500 is About to CRUSH Investors: How The SP500 Bear Market Run Will Fail Or Succeed. | Game of Trades)
Comment:
ABSOLUTE MUST WATCH: Bitcoin could rally to ~$25+k, then crash back down to $17k before the real bull market ensues. Also I am interpreting it as a possible rally now to ~$26.5+k before crashing back down to $17k.

youtu.be/cL_riGaFG_s
(Bitcoin FLASHES BLOOD ORANGE On Super Guppy – DO THIS NOW! | Crypto Crew University)
Comment:
Big move incoming. Concurs with my expectations on all points.

youtu.be/RFb1RGxZ3bU
(Bitcoin FOMO Is Back For Price | E.K.C.)
Comment:
Remember I wrote a couple of weeks back that the crash for the FANG Big Tech stocks would mark the final capitulation. They were the last stragglers that had resisted capitulation.

youtu.be/42B6Pejo2Vw
(Market Internals Are Imploding Behind This Rally Facade | Money Time Machine)

This is the bullish final capitulation of FANG Big tech. The rising 10Y to Nasdaq ratio marks the bottom not the start of a crash.
Comment:
Fed panic pivot?

youtu.be/HbS21by5KK0
(The Treasury Markets About To Seize Up | Mark Moss)
Comment:
youtu.be/ZfG0cq17yTs
(Bitcoin About To Have LARGEST MOVE OF YEAR | Crypto Crew University)
Comment:
Here comes the next FOMO bubble and Elon will help kickstart it, e.g. Twitter Tiles will be a new feature to preview NFT images in tweets:

youtu.be/96-gNzVU8Ug?t=227
(CRYPTO is about to EXPLODE! (HERE is WHY) | Altcoin Daily)

This is why I say that nobody is focused on the fact that all the shit they are creating ends up centralized and controlled by government regulation. They are too busy chasing FOMO money.
Comment:
1. Based on following linked video, clearly ETH is going to pullback to ~$1400 this week, then rally to $2400 – 2600 over the next one to three months. I think it could be more accelerated than Steve thinks perhaps by late December.

2. Game of Trades’ demonstrated that S&P has a bullish divergence w.r.t. to junk bonds unlike in August, thus likely to push up through resistance this time and establish that the bottom is behind us.

3. Eric Krown Crypto’s statistical oscillator analysis is pointing to at least a 30 – 40% rally for BTC. I suspect BTC will also pullback below $20k this week first.

4. ETH has raced out ahead based on Fib retracement levels from the ATH and the neckline of the topping patterns from 2021. Perhaps other cryptos are going to catch up? For example, if ETH hits $2500, then ADA and LTC should rally somewhere $1.33 – 1.43 and $130 – 170. The ADA:BTC chart indicates BTC should rally to $35 – 38k then which would be Bitcoin’s said neckline.

5. Armstrong’s DJIA monthly forecast array has inflection points in January and April with May as a Panic Cycle. It seems there could be some turbulence and perhaps a significant pullback in January, then perhaps another rally to April, then summer correction with a rally into the end of 2023 and perhaps peaking in Q1 2024.

youtu.be/HDrNOnpizFM
(ETH About To SHOCK THE WORLD | Crypto Crew University)
Comment:
Loaded the LTC chart and was shocked to see I had predicted the nearly exact price of the 2021 top, ostensibly back in the Fall of 2020:

Comment:
The Bitcoin Accumulation/Distribution indicator did not bottom in October as hoped. Thus any crypto rally might coming back down again as I previously mentioned the possibility of a retest of the lows again (or at least very significant pullback) perhaps in January perhaps after a potential significant rally first. However this could simply mean the indicator will turn up in December indicating a bottom as of November.

youtu.be/KS4SeBXW83k?t=322
Comment:
My comment:

youtu.be/mgglkQk3CPg
(BITCOIN JUST FLASHED BLOOD RED | Crypto Crew University)

Steve but per your recent Ethereum video, ETH thus far is matching the fractal from the 2019 period. Thus maybe Bitcoin’s bottoming process will be some combination of the 2015 and 2019? Maybe a rally now up to the neckline of the prior double-top ~35 - 37k which is approximately your middle line on the Gaussian channel. Then second retest of the low or thereabouts after 120 days and before the rise back up to the top ~50k or even above the Gaussian channel a year out from now.
Comment:
Bitcoin’s volume has bullish divergence since September. Shifted from distribution to accumulation.

youtu.be/4ToK9GqeZwo?t=840
(BITCOIN URGENT UPDATE: This Changes Everything! Here's What The Smart Money BTC Traders Are Doing | The Crypto Trader Ron Walker)
Comment:
Binance trying to destroy SBF and his FTX because he has been lobbying for strict crypto regulation?

Those who have piled in short are probably going to cause a short squeeze first.

youtu.be/SFaLKStdFqc?t=1195
(URGENT: CZ Binance vs SBF (FTX)! Can FTX Survive? | Crypto Banter)

www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-mBlgjR...
(*THIS* will 100% CRASH the CRYPTO MARKET!!! 🚨 🐳 | Altcoin Daily)

youtu.be/yC7rTJ7lDU0
(Could FTX News Cause A MASSIVE Crypto Market Sell-Off? | Crypto Banter)
Comment:
Amazing how my trend lines have been resistance or support all the way down.

Leads me to believe coming down to $13.9k at the thick yellow line.

Comment:
For those who forgot what that thick brownish-yellow line is. And not the “4?” I had on my chart since last summer! I have always said that we were in a terminal Elliot Wave condition, meaning wave 4 must retrace below top of wave 1 which was $13.9k.

Comment:
I am not giving up on crypto. We always knew that wave 4 was going to be a bitch. But wave 5 should take Bitcoin back up ~410% thus a triple top at $64k in 2023. And that will be the kiss of death for the subsequent ANYONECANSPEND Nash equilibrium restoration event aka “attack,” although there is a possibility of a decline into summer 2023 and then another final peak in late 2023 or early 2024 before the flash crash which I expect will probably be some launch of nuclear WW3.

Hang in there guys! I will also be launching my altcoin 2023.
Comment:
ETH has nearly hit the Bat pattern target I had mentioned a few weeks ago. Looks like the bottom will be ~$1000. Some bounce underway now probably with the inflation report today:

Comment:
Note the S&P chart I had annotated weeks and months ago. Clearly the S&P already bottomed and the harmonic Shark pattern is projected to 4700 – 5000. Note harmonic patterns (including the Bat in my prior message) do not tell us when, they only tell us the price levels.

Note the ominous repeating fractal on this chart, which is highlighted with the similarly shaded semi-opaque boxes.

Comment:
So the bullish Bat pattern on ETH should be a reversal with the first target ~$1700 – 2000 and the second target ~$2450 – 2900. There are clearly overhead resistance trend lines on my chart at those two levels. Those will correspond structurally to overhead resistance in the $28 – 35k level for Bitcoin. Perhaps a massive rebound in December and then a pullback in January.
Comment:
Bitcoin has already hit the first statistical target (CME being ~$700 lower than spot). So next downside targets at the $13.9k and ~$11 – 12k levels but that would likely be later in the month, perhaps after a bounce.

We are putting in a macro bottom here in November. Question is how low does Bitcoin go? My bet is just below $13.9k will be the macro bottom.

youtu.be/NgZr5ovEn5A?t=104
(The Bitcoin crash is insane | E.K.C.)
Comment:
This is well done by Charles:

youtu.be/KRewC7OajeY
(FTX and the Integrity of the Cryptocurrency Markets | Charles Hoskinson)

Altcoin Daily looked into the potential contagion:

youtu.be/bRq1iKsc1Ok
(WORST Crypto News Ever | FTX CONTAGION Will Destroy Market (Binance BACKS OUT) | Altcoin Daily)
Comment:
You have to sell some portion into the crypto bounces. Bottom is not likely in yet.

Comment:
Need to sell ETH here. Going back down to ~$1k before the bottom is in.

Comment:
BTC likely to push up to $18.1 – 18.9k:


We need to be really wary that the dollar is going to free-fall. An intense rally is ahead, but the crypto crashing might not be quite done yet if the contagion around FTX has not hit max pain yet. The dollar could still rally back up to test former support which has become overhead resistance.

Comment:
Second wave down for this bottom could be triggered by miner capitulation:

Bitcoin miners ‘next trigger’ for BTC price crash as outflows hit multi-month highs
Comment:
Dollar could rally for some hours perhaps even back to 109.5 to back test before a more precipitous lower low.


But on higher TFs the dollar looks weak and potentially headed down to 103. But there’s already bullish RSI divergence so at any time the dollar could surge (not due to CPI or Fed surprises but) because of Eurodollar debt markets breaking in Europe.


So maybe crypto pulls back a bit more (e.g. ~16.9k BTC and $1200 ETH) before heading higher.

S&P looking bullish with even its 21 WMA starting to turn up! Be careful the crypto bottom could already be behind us. Reload and ride up for a while.


VIX could drop to 20.6:

Comment:
Q Anon wrote:

> On a side note, didn’t intend for you to encourage anyone to do options trading… most people get rekt.
>
> I haven’t been successful at all with it. Lost it all everytime I’ve done it since it’s all or nothing… I just have some degenerate tendencies and felt it was worth the risk… all I have to do is be right once for an incredible windfall
>
> In the back of my mind, I feel like all the exchanges secretly have teams trading against their users… it’s why almost every month, we see massive liquidations in the options market
>
> That said, find it hard to believe bitcoin will stay below $50k for all of 2023


Indeed it is very difficult because if you have correct convictions, one can still lose by becoming greedy and falling victim to timing.

Perhaps the only way to be successful is to make the decision that is least likely to be the decision anyone else makes. For example if you entered at the height of the crash the prior day, that could end up being prescient. Those who wait for $11k Bitcoin would be one group of people that is holding out for the sure thing. And those who enter at higher prices can get stopped out by their fears as Bitcoin gyrates to find a bottom.

The odds of hitting the perfect homerun decrease the greater the expectation.

I think the point you were making is that you would not be tempted to go into leverage unless Bitcoin declines so severely that it would be a no brainer. Were you prepared to do that when Bitcoin dropped to $3k in 2018 or $4k in 2020? Or was it so unexpected that you were unprepared?

Anyway, the only suggestion I made was to risk maybe $800 for the chance to get $20k. To bet maybe 2 – 5% of one’s porfolio for the chance to maybe hit a ~20 times homerun.

One should view it as gambling.

I think we are going to get chewed up by volatility. S&P could race up to 4300 with Bitcoin and ETH racing up to $32k and $2900, and then another severe decline perhaps in January or May, perhaps not to a lower low.

Speculation is a razor’s edge. Much better to hodl except to take profits during higher overbought, reacquire on highly oversold and instead apply time consuming efforts to work which can generate significant income or project growth.

Actually a society that turns into speculators is an unproductive society that will collapse. I was actually thinking this thought a couple of hours ago myself, before you raised the issue.
Comment:
Guy @ Coin Bureau provides an excellent analysis of the FTX debacle:

youtu.be/WgJbWZpRWyo
(FTX Insolvent?! Craziest Week in Crypto EVER!! The Latest!! | Coin Bureau)

Essentially too much leverage against an illiquid token FTT as collateral. Let this be a lesson to myself when designing an algorithmic stablecoin (e.g. Rico bank) that the collateral requirements must be modulated by measures of market liquidity.

Alameda was such a pervasive market maker on crypto exchanges that we could see liquidity massively reduced and wilder swings in prices.

Also (as admitted by Sam B-F) Alameda will be trying to raise liquidity this week. Ultimately they are probably going to be forced to dumb more of their shitcoin holdings.
Comment:
Nasdaq is looking very bullish. Bullish W pattern projecting +10%, although overhead resistance at the 21 WMA and a slight potential bearish RSI divergence on daily which might need a pullback first. Although bullish RSI divergence on daily and weekly as well. Given the Shark pattern indicates the S&P has bottomed, assume ditto Nasdaq.



S&P on the verge of inverted H&S breakout, although potentially nearly fulfilling first projection thus potentially a pullback first.


Dollar can fall more on daily and weekly, but 4 hourly is hinting of a rally.


Comment:
The tokens affected by the FTX collapse are being frozen, so selling pressure abated while Alameda liquidity provider gone? Thus a massive reversal is plausible? Climbing the wall-of-worry and shock now? Crypto looks to me like it wants to (possibly only a meager) rally again today.

The Bat pattern indicates ETH’s pullback already bottomed or could double bottom (or slightly lower low). As I mentioned previously the next levels up are ~$1700 – 2100. Then ~$2400 – 2900. The 21 WMA is turning up!



Bitcoin may have already bottomed. But it has a lot more work to do as its 21 WMA is still heading down. I can’t visualize Bitcoin surpassing $25.3k if ETH hits $2100. I doubt Bitcoin corrects lower than $13.5k in worst case.

Comment:
Ron Walker correctly points out that the DJIA is overbought and likely near a top. Also a bearish divergence with junk bonds. When the DJIA correct down, it is likely to coincide with all stocks and crypto moving down as well. He also mentions options expiry next week. Remember he called for the Bitcoin crash from $20.4k before anybody was worried about FTX.

Ron admits S&P and Nasdaq could move higher first.

My possible disagreement though is his conviction that although the DJIA will make a higher low, that the S&P and Nasdaq will make lower lows. That conflicts with my Shark pattern that indicates S&P already bottomed (although it could double bottom again except my T/A says no and lowest is to come back down to ~3760 to back fill yesterday’s gap up). Ron cites (38:30) for example a lack of bullish divergence between the S&P and growth. But growth made a lower low when the S&P double bottomed, thus forming a hidden bullish divergence. Ron wants growth to lead but what if the DJIA is leading as Armstrong said. Again Ron cites lack of a divergence between the Nasdaq and DJIA at the recent bottom. But Nasdaq made a (significantly) lower low and DJIA did not on a daily closing basis.

If the Nasdaq rallies much more than the DJIA today then it could possible only back fill to the neckline of its W pattern when the DJIA pulls back possibly next week. Crypto may also pullback when the DJIA does, but maybe not to a lower low.

youtu.be/tpWkim2doo0
(Stock Market CRASH: BULL TRAP! The Dumb Money Is Buying The Rally! Not The Smart Money (SPX QQQ) | Ron Walker)
Comment:

If Bitcoin CME closes below $16.9k in less than 2 hours from now, the 5 day indicator is suggesting that Bitcoin will drop below $14k:

youtu.be/qmhVNxC2qnc?t=590
(Bitcoin Price Bounced.. But Is It Over Yet? | E.K.C.)
Comment:
I would sell now and wait. Maybe one more thrust higher next week first.

youtu.be/8EcRQX-qQJA?t=978
(Evidence Of A Bitcoin Bottom! It's Not Over But BTC Is Showing Signs Of Forming A Liquidation Bottom | The Crypto Trader)
Comment:
Allegations that SEC Commissioner Gary Gensler was corrupted and involved with the FTX debacle.

youtu.be/-M4V5q3hbyc?t=193
(WTF?!!! BITCOIN: FROM BAD… TO WORSE?!!! FTX CRYPTO CONTAGION CONTINUES!!! | Crypto Zombie)

Although the selling of FTX tokens will be abated by the bankruptcy filing, the counter parties are now illiquid. This can result in an extreme capitulation low for Bitcoin. Be careful here. Wait for the other shoe to drop and for distribution to complete and accumulation to gain the upper hand. I do not perceive we are there yet.
Comment:
Nasdaq has also Shark pattern bottomed as I predicted it would on Oct 9.

Comment:
Holy crap. Why did I not see this before! Bitcoin has a Shark pattern projecting down to $5.9k! The pattern does not tell you when that price will be hit. So as was the case for the Bat pattern for ETH, the price can rally back up first but not higher than point C. Thus Bitcoin can still rally before hitting $5.8k, but not higher than ~$64k. Thus according to Steve @ Crypto Crew U.’s repeating 5.2 times pattern off the bottom, this indicates that Bitcoin must decline now below $13k, before rallying back up. If back fill that CME gap $9.6k, then Bitcoin will only rally to ~$50k in 2023 before crashing ultimately to $5.8k (possibly the posited ANYONECANSPEND attack in 2024).

This seems to be indicating that the crash will be worse on Bitcoin than Ethereum as I have a Bat pattern ETH that says the low will be ~$1k.

Comment:
Also note that Shark patter projects from $5.8k down to as low as below zero. So it seems that will be the posited ANYONECANSPEND attack. The legacy Bitcoin will drop to $5.8k but the impostor Bitcoin Core will death spiral. Ah it all fits together now. The chart was telling us everything.

Comment:
Okay ETH has that same egregiously bearish Shark pattern and it is worse because there is no price target above $0. So this is so interesting because it jives with the fact that there is no legacy ETH that is to survive which has not already forked off. And the Bat pattern projection for the incoming low for the rally into 2023 is $1k even I move C to the recent rally $1700 (although does not fit a Bat pattern correctly).

So we can watch ETH to tell us when BTC has bottomed. When ETH drops again and tags $1k (or even a wick lower), then we should be looking for a BTC bottom. Strange that BTC might drop much more lower than ETH will. BTC is making lower lows while ETH is making higher lows. ETH will be much stronger into 2023 but this Shark pattern says ETH will not make a new ATH in 2023. Eyeing the $4k level.

Not an exact Bat pattern so ETH could head lower perhaps $950.




Another very interesting insight that ETH can help us time the incoming bottom. Note that ETH:BTC bottom at the time of this dashed line on the BTC chart at 0.066 which per my analysis of the ETH:BTC chart is the likely absolute low. By the time BTC bottomed, ETH:BTC was 0.069. If this repeats and ETH bottoms $950, then BTC will bottom $13.7k assuming ETH has not risen in price when BTC bottoms. If ETH:BTC makes a lower low then BTC could be lower unless again if ETH price has bottomed and move higher by the time BTC bottoms.

So in other words if the Bat target is correct for ETH, the start buying crypto when ETH hits ~$1k or maybe a wick lower.

Comment:
Litecoin has a Butterfly instead of a Shark pattern and it projects also below zero with no alternative price above $0. Thus it appears that even legacy LTC will not survive?

Comment:
Amazingly Cardanao (ADA) does not have this death spiral technical pattern. Appears it will rally significantly in 2023 but the crash will be a major wave 4 thus not going below 2 cents in any case.

Perhaps more importantly this indicates that the death spiral for BTC, ETH and LTC will not be until after ADA rallies for minor wave 5 to complete major wave 3. Yet another confirmation that crypto will bottom soon and rally significantly into 2023.

Comment:
Remember this chart I shared some weeks ago, where I was projecting a possible repeat of 2018, with a final drop into the $13 – $15.3k level?

Note the spike in volume already occurred. Compare to 2018. Thus most likely there will only be 3 more weeks to capitulation bottom not lower than $13k. Probably to bounce this coming week a bit higher first.

Comment:
Look they are crashing Bitcoin with exchange failures so they can pass the new crypto legislation in the USA which will enable institutions to buy and hold it. Bitcoin will catapult back up in 2023, then they fleece all the institutions with the ANYONECANSPEND attack. All going according to the diabolical plan.
Comment:
7:45 The FTX debacle was a scam to steal money from conservatives to help elect Demonrats 😱🤬:

youtu.be/bY65AnZuX_A?t=503
(The FTX Crypto Scandal Just Got Much WEIRDER…)
Comment:
Another false breakout to the upside from a bearish triangle incoming as was the case for the crash from $21.5k on Nov 22?

$13.5k incoming low? Might bounce as high as $17.5k. I am expecting the S&P to make one more thrust higher next week.

Comment:
My EW count expectation for S&P and 4900 by Q1 2023:

Comment:
www.armstrongeconomi...ukraine-force-peace/

> “it turns out that FTX was funding the anti-Ivermectin studies that were fake all to exaggerate COVID and destroy our economy.”
Comment:
Armstrong is simply wrong about a bear market into Q1 2023:

youtu.be/T3Ry08sB9gc
(Why This is Not a Bear Market Rally. | A Massive SP500 Move is Coming as Shorts Get Squeezed | Game of Trades)
Comment:
Ron Walker is emphasizing what he thinks is a symmetric triangle (pennant) continuation pattern, which he thinks projects to the $9 – 10k level. He is also talking possibly $7 – 8k. May bounce from ~$14k and still possible that could be the bottom.


youtu.be/PgFnRgke9eo
(A Bitcoin Reality Check Is Coming - BTC CRASH Now In Progress As Correctly Predicted! Check Mate!!!)

My comment is be wary of a rally this week first before the next leg down.

youtu.be/L62HH4roEbA
(BULL TRAP WARNING - Options Expiration May Create The Illusion That The FAKE FED PIVOT RALLY Is Real)
Comment:
Dollar is forming an inverse H&S bottom. Markets are preparing to dump again. Bitcoin might bottom in December. An 85 – 86% correction would be $10k.

youtu.be/8ap-PGabBB4?t=578
(Wall Street Is Loading Up On These {defensive} Stocks... NOT GOOD! {SP500, QQQ, TSLA, BITCOIN})
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfE7UFDc...

> > HEX is a scam because those who staked for 15 years, meaning they can’t even cash out with a 50% penalty for 7.5 years, will likely never get any of their original investment back out of HEX. And HEX was intentionally designed to take advantage of the forgetfulness of humans in that they lose all their investment if they are busy and don’t unstake in a very small two week time window after expiration (and not before expiration because they incurs a 50 – 100% penalty). HEX is also a scam because the origin address received “sacrificed” crypto tokens exchanged for HEX thus obviously an ICO that violates the Howey test for U.S. Securities laws and which probably enabled the insiders to buy HEX from themselves, thus entirely centralizing the token supply and pump-a-mentally creating an illusion of a high market cap and illusion of popular adoption.

> > Here is the follow-up… Which means all penalties are awarded to the insiders. HEX is also a scam because it is promoted as (by implication) equating FDIC insured Certificate of Deposits with an uninsured technology (proof-of-stake) which is going to crash and burn because every proof-of-stake system is entirely centralized and governments can and will be able to crack down on them. Every ICO (including Ethereum) has been insiders buying the ICO from themselves centralizing the token supply. Why do you think Ethereum had sky high gas fees when the oligarchy of mining can compute the smart contracts only once instead of duplicating the computation for the illusion of decentralized miners? Obviously for the oligarchy in control to centralize the token supply. And the power-law distribution of fungible resources in an inviolable invariant in our Universe. Notwithstanding Richard’s condescending, juvenile memes to impress other naive juveniles, who but those inebriated on Richard’s Koolaid are making a fool out of themselves?

> “@S. Moore I made more money than you dream of with this scam. lol now imagine for a second, if BTC original owners were FORCED to keep their coins for 8 years without touching them. would have been horrible for them, wouldnt it? so shush and just stake for a year if youre a sissy. also FYI not even 10% of the tokens are staked... this is accessible to anyone who has eyeballs. meaning anyone can stake lets say 30% of their bag and keep 70% fluid. so just shush man, there is so much you dont know its embarrassing. keep holding FTX and ADA-”

@Pulsin'Hexican that is presumptuous of you to assume I don’t know. But what you might not know if that Richard and his insiders were selling the ICO to themselves. Thus your claim of only 10% being staked is BS from the standpoint of the percent of tokens actually held by any fool who is not on the inside. The sheepeople are going to get reamed. It is always that, just FTX in a different flavor and timeline. Don’t attempt to talk down to me, as I have been in this cryptocosm since 2013. I know much more than you realize I know. Stay tuned, you will be hearing my name in the future.
Comment:
I might accumulate some ~$16k. Waiting for a bullish RSI divergence. I think a bounce this week. Everyone is bearish.


Although funding rate is not clearly bearish so need to be cautious:

www.coinglass.com/FundingRate
Comment:
Potential bullish RSI divergence for ETH on the 2 hour. Also hidden, bullish on the 1 hour. No bullish divergence on the 4 hourly. So I am just nibbling here. Could be enough for a bounce this week, or maybe heading lower than $1070 to form bullish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly, daily and weekly (which coming eventually even if bounces first).

Comment:
Added a thin red trend line to that prospective symmetric wedge pennant:

Comment:
Bitcoin has bullish RSI divergence on the 30 min chart, hidden bullish RSI divergence on the 30 and 45 minute. And potentially bullish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly if there is a massive bullish reversal in price within the next 2 hours. When BTC does make a lower-low it will very likely form bullish RSI divergence on the daily. As I said, the question is whether the markets are going to have final leg up this week before the significant pullback (lower lows for crypto but not likely for the stock markets) — I think so.
Comment:
ADA, FTM and DOGE all have potential bullish RSI divergences even on time frames as high as the daily for DOGE for example. On the weekly it appears DOGE could eventually drop below $0.55 again to form a bullish RSI divergence. Whereas on the weekly ADA and FTM appears to be close to a bottom. However there is already hidden bullish RSI divergence for those latter two on the weekly, so there is not necessarily any limit to how much further they could drop.

In summary, I can not rule out an immediate drop of BTC to say ~$15k and ETH ~$950, although there could be bounce first this week. And I can’t rule out (from ETH:BTC chart to drop 0.61 – 0.67) that instead ~$13.9k and ~$950 when it finally comes. Again possibly a bounce first.

The ADA:BTC chart looks very weak maybe to drop to 0.000016 – 0.000017. So this is implying a price of ~$0.22 – 0.26 if BTC drops to $13.5 – $15k.

The ADA:USD chart has a bullish declining wedge going back to the 2021 peak which concurs!

Comment:
Watch this so you will not why the markets will bottom on the next selloff and rally significantly into 2023.

youtu.be/moSClASbnyc?t=967
(The Stock Market Is Hoping For A Fed Pivot - Historically A Fed Pivot Triggers A Much Bigger CRASH | Ron Walker)
Comment:
Q Nonymous, {11/21/22 10:56 PM}
My insiders in manufacturing saying the same thing (recession not til late 2023, early 2024, with no prediction on how long it will last) …looks like this will likely be the first time where the halving doesn’t get priced into the market

shelby3 ⏱🌐🧖, {11/21/22 10:58 PM}
Oh I think the halving effect will be the same. Bitcoin will bottom in the next week or two, then rally with the stock market, then crash to a double bottom (or lower low) right before the halving. That has been the pattern every time. Right on schedule plus-or-minus a couple of weeks.

Measure to 2018 and 2015.
Comment:
As I predicted looks like a bit more upside before the crash coming. OPTICALARTdotCOM has 16.5k as the first stop, then $17+k and the highest would be $18.1k but probably will not make it up there. He still thinks $7 – 9k by February. E.K.C. is thinking more in the mid-to-high $13k by first or second week of December.


VIX falling into a SLINGSHOT bottom?


As I had predicted back on November 4 as evident by the green and red arrow tipped lines.

Comment:
This is worth expending 5 minutes to watch on double-speed:

youtu.be/_dVK--CXbIU
(This Is Going to Trigger a Massive Top on the SP500. | Volatility is Trending Higher. | Game of Trades)
Comment:
Carl the Moon is spot on correct here. Now is the time to grind on the altcoin to prepare for 2025 bull market. And we should get a rally on crypto into 2023 probably ~$40k. There will be that repeat of the March 2020 crash in Q1 2024 right before the halving.

youtu.be/Sehc6swlMwY
(Bitcoin Next ATH & Next Cycle Top WHEN? (Price Prediction) | Altcoin Daily)
Comment:
Thread for TLDR
twitter.com/1MarkMos.../1597245271301394432

www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpLOnLIG...
(Why Crypto Won’t See Another Bull Market - Its Changed | Mark Moss)

The government is corrupt and does not exist to protect anyone but themselves and their cronies. Very unlikely that the SEC will declare for example Ethereum a security. Are they going to walk away from their gravvy train willingly? I do not think so. The death of the crypto pump & dump will be when there's no more greater fools to be had. Have we reached that point already?
Comment:
Okay here comes the pump for BItcoin I was expecting. Get ready to go short.

Comment:
The incoming oil pricing war with Russia to start Dec 5 along with the potential railroad strike in the U.S., along with Biden to refill strategic petroleum reserves might be trigger for one more scare in the markets? Also Ben Cowen presents more charts (social media activity is not yet indicating the bottom) indicating that crypto likely has another leg down. Even Crypto Crew U. is now admitting $13.7k is likely.

youtu.be/HgBPrGzs-g4?t=918
Comment:
Cowan compares the current crypto crash to the Nasdaq Dot.Com crash and makes some very strong points. Total crypto market cap to decline another 20% in December, bottom, rally 60%, then another leg down for the final bottom later in 2023. Perfectly jibes with my analyses and expectations.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ixJXwBT...
(Worst Case Scenario for Bitcoin & Ethereum (I'M SCARED)!!! | Altcoin Daily)

Ben(jamin) Cowan is killing it lately. Seen him on Coin Bureau as well. A reputable circle of vloggers in the cryptocosm taking form. Keep up the good work.
Comment:
youtu.be/VJk-jOjs2qg
(Stock Market CRASH Signals Warning This Is A BULL TRAP - An Opportunity For The Bears Not The Bulls | Ron Walker)

Another sell-off for sure incoming. Remember the prior inflation data was lower because of health care adjustments which won't be present in the incoming PCE report.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUpYe_lk...
(Bad News: New MEGA DEATH CROSS Coming | Crypto Crew U.)

Steve this is Shelby from email. Now you are identifying the coming "anyone can spend" attack I was warning you about. There will be massive false breakout on the volatility when the recession hits and Bitcoin Core will be destroyed. False moves are common when so close to the apex of a triangle formation. Only those hodling in legacy addresses will keep their BTC and the rest will be donated to the legacy protocol miners. Subsequently the volatility will crash very low and remain there as the legacy Bitcoin rises as the 1989 Economist Magazine's Phoenix NWO global currency to replace the dollar and yuan in a multipolar world taking shape with the intentional, premediated WW3 underway . This was all planned out decades in advance.(Btw, I am in Thailand now brother)
Comment:
youtu.be/4O1kZSiXoYE

Bitcoin very near if not already at the bottom. Looks like the average statistical move was already hit with that drop below $16k. The upper end of the std deviation would put Bitcoin in the $13.7k range which is what I am expecting for this next, imminent sell-off.
Comment:
Railroad strike probably averted. Backed out of my short position and wait for $18k to re-enter:

twitter.com/Breaking.../1598018334813044736
(Breaking News
House passes legislation to avert a nationwide rail strike, sending it to the Senate just days ahead of a crucial deadline.)
Comment:
GoT explains why the markets will rally into 2023:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lVvWUL1...
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...fe-wave-around-1448/

I am also thinking one more thrust up before a retest of lows, before the large rally into Q1 2023. Or will it just continue running because too many keep repositioning short after every rally?
Comment:
Armstrong is warning that January could be the high of this current rally: He seems bearish after a reaction False Move. He thinks maybe continuing the decline after a possible January reaction high.

www.armstrongeconomi...ll-of-united-states/

He reiterated it in the private blog that Euro could maybe rally into the first week of January. This would be the False Move (www.armstrongeconomi...uide/the-false-move/) before the move down. The entire year of 2023 could be the final last gasp for the Euro, possibly targeting 0.41 USD by 2027/28:

www.armstrongeconomi...r-end-book-squaring/
Comment:
Ron Walker is also expecting a False Move rally before the next crash. This makes sense there's too much bearishness to crash directly.

youtu.be/KFGMk41Nsvg
(Bitcoin Is In store For A Bounce or Big BTC Bounce Followed By A Massive CRASH In January)

youtu.be/GtRBomGYn80
(The Put/Call Ratio Surges To New Highs! Short Squeeze Coming Followed By A Bigger Stock Market CRASH)
Comment:
The RSI on BTC has reset bullish on the 4 hourly after that hidden, bearish condition at the spike up to $18.35k. Remember I had predicted a bounce from the Nov. 21 $15.5k low up to as high as the ~$18.2k area. The daily RSI turned bullish on Nov. 21 and price mush go higher before bearish. Weekly RSI turned bullish on Nov. 14.

ETH:USD and ETH:BTC both of bullish RSI divergence on daily. Maybe ~8% leverage on BTC on this posited incoming False Move rally, so perhaps ~$1440 - 1500 and BTC to $18.5 - $19.2k.

LTC:USD and LTC:BTC are RSI bullish on the daily with perhaps 19 - 65% potential upside on BTC, but currently RSI bearish on the weekly unless LTC can rally to $128+ which is plausible, although bearish RSI could still form at that level against the prior $350 level. LTC looks like it might a significant run now and then pullback significantly.

DOGE looks even more bullish than LTC on posited rally. Looking for a double to triple in price!

Note ADABTC is scary.

Also Eric Krown Crypto has two statistical indicators potentially pointing to a BTC rally to $19 - 22k by next week through possibly end of January.

youtu.be/cqLDlZM8_VM
(Bitcoin Quietly Putting In A Major Low On Price)
Comment:
Although it's quite scary and counter-intuitive to go bullish with VIX so low (which is probably why the majority is positioned bearish/cautious in conjunction with the FTX scandal), there is hidden, bearish RSI on the daily and week, until the VIX makes a lower low than 19.

Comment:
BTC price looks like it wants to False Move rally as it did in Q1 2019 and the VIX also looks like it wants to continue down as it did in Q1 to April 2019. VIX is also prepping for another major flash crash breakout sometime no later than Q1 2024 to repeat the March 2020 corona dump.

Comment:
My charted expectation on BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance including stable coins) has played out exactly since I published it in June:


This looks very bearish for altcoins. But presuming the False Move rally mimicking Q1 2019 is correct, then there would repeat a bull flag on the BTC.D allowing some altcoins to make in January final dominant rallies for 2023 and beyond. Remember altcoins did not moon again until 2021, so we could be looking at 2025 before they moon again! Note altcoins did rally a bit in summer 2020, so maybe they will rally off the recession lows in 2024 then stall again until 2025 while legacy BTC roars first as it did in Q3/Q4 2020? Also note altcoins were dominant (stronger) during the 2020 corona dump so I wonder if they will be again at the recession lows after Bitcoin dominance peaks sometime in 2023?

Remember BTC.D includes stablecoins which now have market caps rivaling the top altcoins, thus we would need to analyze with stablecoins removed to get a more altcoin focused analysis.

Eric Krown Crypto is also pointing out the strength on the BTC.D chart:

youtu.be/PQDnigr_VOk
(Most Bullish Crypto Chart For 2023)
Comment:
Ah yes so Bitcoin Dominance without the major stablecoins, exemplifies plausible bearish RSI divergence on the daily, or incoming on a rally above 3 on the weekly. So altcoins might make one more dominant rally in January-ish or Q1 2023.


Comment:
I could envision a break out to the upside from this falling wedge (aka "falling pizza") with textbook pattern declining volume, but rejected at say $30k then back down to a lower low later in 2023 or Q1 2024.

youtu.be/cEYg9-JzjWk
(Bitcoin BEST CHART FOR $40,000 in 2023)
Comment:
The Moon also has identified that Bitcoin is going to break either to the upside or downside, but evidence points up.

youtu.be/0qUkraz64HU
(NO F*CKING WAY !!!!!!!! | The Moon)

> "BTC chart is flatlined because it's holiday market condition. Don't get fooled, it means nothing. Don't trade until the 2nd week of January."

Yet Put/cal ratio spiked on S&P probably insurance for the holidays, so a covering bounce incoming?
Comment:
youtu.be/ykUGoieiFtQ?t=105
(Stock Traders Are BETTING ON THIS HAPPENING Now! | FX Evolution)

My comment:

> "You're comparing against bear markets but we're not in a bear market. The most likely comparable is December 2018. S&P +2.25% from Dec. 22 thus if repeats 2017 or 2018, January should be up 5.6 to 7.9%. Bear markets typically don't kickoff until the rally as the Fed starts easing and unemployment starts rising significantly. Likely a rally before the bear market."

> "VIX has bearish RSI divergence until it drops below 19. Love that everyone is on one side of the trade because of fear of 20 level on the VIX. Go look what happened in Q1 2019. VIX moved all the way back down to support ~11. Repeat incoming to 17. Looks like HYG (junk bonds) have 5th wave up incoming."

> "HYG (junk bonds) looks like it still wants to complete a wave 5 up. DXY (dollar) looks to accumulate at 103 before reverse up. Agreed $65 oil still incoming. Poland & Germany just put in orders for Russian oil!"
Comment:
DXY dollar chart:

Comment:
Is this Shark pattern projecting up to 4650 to 4925 invalid? How is that wave 2 is completing and wave 3 to ensue with a breakout of downtrend?

Comment:
On the linked Forecast Array, Direction changes, Oct up, Nov down, Dec up with a Panic cycle. Should be up with increasing volatility until March. So where in the heck is Armstrong getting the idea that January will be the top?

I posted in my Telegram on Nov. 15 as follows...

www.armstrongeconomi...tx-crypto-implosion/

Armstrong finally published his Bitcoin Monthly Forecast Array.

He appears to be interpreting that December Panic Cycle as another selloff instead of as a massive rally.

He also thinks crypto has entered its Dot.Com bust and will not rise again.

But note the Direction Changes. October was up, November was down, so shouldn’t December be up? Panic Cycles can be to the upside or downside (or even both with a massive slingshot).
Comment:
Again remember there's ostensibly a BAT harmonic pattern on ETH projecting up to $3250. Why is everyone so bearish given oil likely to decline to $65? Why does Armstrong think June is the top? I will search for bearish arguments.

www.ig.com/en/tradin...r-should-know-210608

Comment:
Nasdaq has also Shark pattern bottomed as I predicted it would on Oct 9.

Comment:
Remember these posts from November. The 31 month crash that Armstrong is expecting will come, but in 2024.

shelby3 ⏱🌐🧖,
Holy crap. Why did I not see this before! Bitcoin has a Shark pattern projecting down to $5.9k! The pattern does not tell you when that price will be hit. So as was the case for the Bat pattern for ETH, the price can rally back up first but not higher than point C. Thus Bitcoin can still rally before hitting $5.8k, but not higher than ~$64k. Thus according to Steve @ Crypto Crew U.’s repeating 5.2 times pattern off the bottom, this indicates that Bitcoin must decline now below $13k, before rallying back up. If back fill that CME gap $9.6k, then Bitcoin will only rally to ~$50k in 2023 before crashing ultimately to $5.8k (possibly the posited ANYONECANSPEND attack in 2024).

This seems to be indicating that the crash will be worse on Bitcoin than Ethereum as I have a Bat pattern ETH that says the low will be ~$1k.


shelby3 ⏱🌐🧖,
Also note that Shark pattern projects from $5.8k down to as low as below zero. So it seems that will be the posited ANYONECANSPEND attack. The legacy Bitcoin will drop to $5.8k but the impostor Bitcoin Core will death spiral. Ah it all fits together now. The chart was telling us everything.


shelby3 ⏱🌐🧖,
{ Album }
Okay ETH has that same egregiously bearish Shark pattern and it is worse because there is no price target above $0. So this is so interesting because it jives with the fact that there is no legacy ETH that is to survive which has not already forked off. And the Bat pattern projection for the incoming low for the rally into 2023 is $1k even I move C to the recent rally $1700 (although does not fit a Bat pattern correctly).

So we can watch ETH to tell us when BTC has bottomed. When ETH drops again and tags $1k (or even a wick lower), then we should be looking for a BTC bottom. Strange that BTC might drop much more lower than ETH will. BTC is making lower lows while ETH is making higher lows. ETH will be much stronger into 2023 but this Shark pattern says ETH will not make a new ATH in 2023. Eyeing the $4k level.

Not an exact Bat pattern so ETH could head lower perhaps $950.




shelby3 ⏱🌐🧖,
Litecoin has a Butterfly instead of a Shark pattern and it projects also below zero with no alternative price above $0. Thus it appears that even legacy LTC will not survive?


Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖,
Amazingly Cardanao (ADA) does not have this death spiral technical pattern. Appears it will rally significantly in 2023 but the subsequent crash will be a major wave 4 thus not going below 2 cents in any case.

Perhaps more importantly this indicates that the death spiral for BTC, ETH and LTC will not be until after ADA rallies for minor wave 5 to complete major wave 3. Yet another confirmation that crypto will bottom soon and rally significantly into 2023.

Comment:
Also there's a corroborating tweening between a bearish BAT and a GARTLEY which I had previously published, that has now completed. There is no other harmonic pattern that can fit. This seems to confirm a bottom!!!

Comment:
Sorry I can not share the chart from the private blog. I can only describe it to you. Here is why I think Martin Armstrong might be misled about January being a reaction bull trap top...

www.armstrongeconomi...-beware-of-november/

Remember from the private blog Armstrong posted the Monthly Forecast Array for the DJIA. He is too focused on that January Aggregate. He also got too focused on his fear of International War breaking out in Russia in November or January. This war is a long process, as he can now see with Germany and Poland about to purchase oil from Russia. Oil will decline to $65 and Natural Gas below $3 again. That International War escalation will come later in 2023. There is a Direction Change in April 2023 which will have formed the top and a Panic Cycle in May which will likely mark the bottom.

The markets are probably in the midst of front running the Fed pivot later in 2023 and better than expected earnings likely in Q4 and Q1 as economies around the world are fully opening up.
Comment:
I commented:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQDnigr_...

> "The problem with using BTC.D instead of BTC/(TOTAL3-USDT-USDC) is that you missed the hidden, bearish RSI divergence on the daily, which could take months to play out. Please correct this analysis asap."

Comment:
> "But I don't really like chasing the market like this if I can help it, especially if I'm away from the computer screen for long periods.
>
> Since we lost the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator as some kind of marker, I'm more wary of TA (not the only reason). My instinct (which admittedly could be sending me unreliable signals) is that we are in uncharted waters."


I do not understand the 'chasing' sentiment? What is the basis of that perspective?

My perspective is that the bottoms I have been calling for since early October have held as predicted. The FTX FUD has everyone and their shoeshine boy expecting lower prices. The market rarely does what everyone expects. Do you know anyone bullish on crypto right now?

The Pi Cycle Bottom had never been used predictively in the past. It was only retrospectively (formulated) correct twice whereas the Pi Cycle top was correct 4 times. It was a new theory based on only two data points. Do you realize there is probably numerous Pi Cycle Bottom formulations that can predict the same prior two instances? And there is probably a different formulation of it that will yield all the prior bottoms and the current one also.

Hey I almost bought at $15.5k, but was too hectic preparing to (or already) traveling. So I missed the bottom thus far. Yeah sucks to buy at $16.8k in that respect, especially when there is likely more downside later in 2023 or 2024. That is why I am analyzing this very exhaustively. My analysis is not yet complete. Looking for counter-arguments.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3t9REGuX...
(Elon Musk on Fixing Twitter (Free Speech, Shadow Banning & Being CEO) | All-In Podcast Clips)

21:00 Definitely the flash crash will be Q1 2024 and then the Fed will monetize the hell out of it again. So dawn will break in Q2 2024. But note there is likely a final rally incoming Q1 2023 as the market front runs the eventual Fed pivot and gas plummeting to $65. Poland and Germany just put in orders for Russian oil.

Interview gets cut when they talk a bit too much about the FBI. Elon doing his best to avoid talking to directly about the FBI in any serious tone.
Comment:
Again thinking more about that Direction Change in April and Panic Cycle in May on Armstrong Economics' Monthly Forecast Array for the DJIA, that can't be a bottom and rally, because that will be right about the time the Fed's interest rate hike start to really manifest problems in the economy in earnest. Whereas, Q4 earnings to be reported in January are likely to be better than the doomsday pessimism. And if oil and natural gas decline precipitously as expected (affirmed by Poland and Germany to buy oil from Russia), that should lead to exuberance in Q1.

Thus I think January might actually be a bottom for S&P and Bitcoin along with a right shoulder of a massive, bullish, inverse H&S on the DJIA.
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...2023-Year-From-Hell/

> "We really like this setup. It can work out very well. Thanks for sharing."

@SwallowPremium, looks like a rally incoming in Q1, then pullback with another rally before a flash crash in Q1 2024 (possibly caused by International War), thus more or less repeating the pattern of 2019. Yet pay attention to updates as the interpretation remains fluid.

"They will try to push war during the summer of 2024 to influence the election."
Comment:
For Bitcoin, FX Evolution points out a possible miniature inverse H&S pointing up to that ~$17.4k level, which the prior vlogger Crypto G I cited mentioned in the context of the larger bearish H&S pointing down to $14.9k. FX Evolution also mentioned distribution on the DJIA pointing to a correction after any bounce. The mentioned statistic about stocks below 52-week MAs with 200 MA down at least 83 days pointing to negative performance in Q1 might be lacking context (e.g. that stock market crashes usually begin when Fed stops hiking and there's often a rally before the Fed pivot).

youtu.be/THlPGGXZmqE?t=1337
(80 Years Of Stock Market History Signal Worse Things Are Coming?)

Unfortunately I can not share screen captures of videos here, thus you readers are missing some of the context that I am able to share on Telegram. Anyway click the videos and find the relevant charts.
Comment:
My comment:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=THlPGGXZ...

> "Interesting that you don't mention 'risk premium' when talking about valuations - 17 forward PE might be fair in low inflation environment - during high inflation stock multiples have to come down quite a bit more. Cheers!"

What if inflation is plummeting? What is oil falls to $65 and natural gas below $3? What if the market front runs the Fed pivot? What if I told you the Fed just published a paper says their computation of rents (which is 33% of the CPI) is too laggard and they should switch soon to a more forward looking metric for their interpretation of the CPI? What is I told you a recently published Fed document shows that there were only 12,000 new jobs created in 2022 and they are reevaluating their hawkish stance? View Meet Kevin's channel.
Comment:
Ron Walker has identified divergences which point to a rally back up but given his indicators are not oversold, he expects the rally to fail with the S&P and Bitcoin possibly to new lows.

I believe the Shark pattern on the S&P doesn't allow it to close a week below 3560. It could wick lower or double-bottom.

youtu.be/jIUfDPsvpd8
(DISCOVER HOW TO WIN: If You Want To Make A Fortune Swing Trading The S&P 500 - Follow These Signals)

Ron is pointing out that after the expected incoming bull trap bounce, the DJIA might make a higher low to form the right shoulder of massive, bullish inverse H&S along with the Transports making a lower-low thus being a Dow Theory buy signal and major bottom. Thus I think the bottom wick will be 3512, not 3199.

youtu.be/kInb02mut1k?t=303
(Stock Market CRASH: Will The KISS OF DEATH Be Validated By S&P 500 Closing Below The 50 Month MA?)
Comment:
ETH can actually come down to ~$950 - 1000 and still be compatible with the two harmonic patterns I had identified:


Thus expecting a bull trap move up, followed by the final capitulation in January. Perhaps Bitcoin will only revisit the lows, perhaps a wick to $14.9k given that Armstrong's Monthly Forecast Array for Bitcoin has a Direction Change for December (and next not until March) thus the bottom for Bitcoin should be more or less behind us. We may get one more scare in January and then rally massively in Q1.

www.tradingview.com/...2023-Year-From-Hell/

> "BTC $16,880 igniter was activated on daily data!"

@goodblackcat, another failure from ~$17.4k likely. Bottom in January. Then the rally in Q1. C.f. my latest updates.
Comment:
The two harmonic patterns agree on an exactly $1010 bottom for ETH. The target projection is $3250. If this is correct, then buying ETH at $1050 is going to be a triple and I have to believe this would be by April, because I don't think the longer term bullishness of the Bitcoin Dominance allows for altcoins to reach that price later in 2023.

So if ETH:BTC is to rally to between 0.09 - 0.12, that would indicate BTC to ~$27 - $36k:

Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3RkdFB1...
(Worst Crash in 100 Years Begins as Indicators Warned Days Ago | Money Time Machine)

Does anybody have any f-ing clue why he is bearish out to March? I have the S&P bottomed already with a Shark harmonic pattern. See at most a retest with the DJIA coming down to form a right shoulder of a massive, bullish inverse H&S. There have been some not widely publicized developments at the Fed that virtually nobody seems to be aware of. They just admitted that only 12,000 jobs were created in 2022 and that the delayed effects of rent on CPI are invalid. Looks like they are positioning for an early reverse out of their hawkishness. Also historically bull markets only begin after the Feds starts easing. Historically we should get a massive rally in Q1 before the recession crash when the earnings plummet and unemployment skyrockets. Can someone help me understand Cal's thesis? He was bullish, then suddenly turned uber bearish.
Comment:
Can someone help me understand Kal's thesis? He was bullish, then suddenly turned uber bearish.

The only explanation I found in his recent videos was this statement about 2023 being all about horrible earnings and recession with Fed rate hikes and high interest rates crushing the market:

youtu.be/4ly8HlswU0U?t=460

But actually there are signs that the consumer is holding up and if oil and natural gas come down to $65 and $3 as expected, this doomsthink might be incorrect?
Comment:
My Oct 8 prediction hit precisely:

www.tradingview.com/...ound-209-big-upside/
Comment:
{ Album }
Total crypto market cap continues to hold above 2018 highs and June lows. "More likely than not, to bounce from here."

Monthly jewel indicator in the same position as the macro low March 2019. Volatility is incredibly low (the upper curve, lowest for longest in entire history) so a massive move to the upside or downside is forthcoming. Avg move 90% over 58 days! Whoa! 1st std dev 40 - 137%. Note 100% means a doubling. He measured March 2019 as +145% but I measure it +185%. So my tripling expectation for ETH is right in line with this as not all will rise that much! Fib levels agree.

youtu.be/X3YDq-IanK4
(Bitcoin & Total Crypto Market Capitulation Analysis | Eric Krown Crypto)
Comment:

We have the Deep Crab pattern on ETH projecting up to $3250. LTC:ETH is projecting 0.097 - 0.1121 thus $315 to $365 which is 4 - 5 times gain.


LTC:BTC has two possible projections 0.0071 or 0.0175. Neither seem to make sense for $315 or $365.


Thus if only the handle of the cup forms at 0.0704, thus only $229÷0.0071= $32253 BTC which works. Assuming LTC to retest $48 if ETH retests $1k, then LTC to more than quadruple.
Comment:
If BTC is to rally for a double off a retest of lows, then DOGE appears to be a 5 to 6 times multiple off a retest of its lows. This is of course contingent on the overall thesis of a Q1 rally with Bitcoin Dominance bull flagging (i.e. declining).


Comment:
I know you guys need your eyes drawn to visuals so you can grasp the potential massive reversal underway. Here was a key chart from the video I shared previously.

youtu.be/cqLDlZM8_VM?t=333
(Bitcoin Quietly Putting In A Major Low On Price | Eric Krown Crypto)

Don't forget we got the MACD cross as well.

youtu.be/PAaHHDE7f-k?t=157
(Bitcoin Getting Ready For Next MAJOR MOVE | Crypto Crew University)

Sorry Tradingview readers need to click to the videos, because I am unable to share the photo album that I share on Telegram.
Comment:
Even the uber bearish OPTICALARTdotCOM has flipped his $9k prediction from 12 days ago to a bullish rally to $22k. I commented. WATCH THIS VIDEO!

www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUth1WN6...
(Bitcoin could pump to $22k from here! I explain why.)

Going to ride up that red & orange ring intersection (also the blue ring on the M chart) to ~$35k over the next ~7 weeks before the next drop. First stop in that $21 - $22k range. You should look at the Deep Shark harmonic pattern of the ETH chart. Go look at Eric Krown Crypto's statistical indicators. Look at Crypto Crew University's MACD cross. Look at that Shark pattern bottom for the S&P. Projections all pointing to a significant rally in Q1. Also we already know what the Black Swan events are. The Fed recently published obscure reports that only 12,000 jobs were created in 2022. And that the lag on rentals which impact 33% of CPI is an incorrect interpretation of reality. Also Poland and Germany just ordered oil from Russia.
Comment:
Thus far OPTICALARTdotCOM's conditional is failing with the next stop $15.9k, so I would hold off on establishing long positions and wait for some more information. This by no means invalidates the bulilsh possibility. His thesis was in terms of weekly bars, so any wick down is not an invalidation.

I'm looking to buy some in that $15.9 - $16k area if wick down there, because Ron Walker continues to see evidence that very likely to get a bounce in the market heading into January 4. Note this will likely not be the final bottom an instead some failed rally that might come back down to final lows or retest prior lows.

youtu.be/evtMwpLWaoo
(Stock Market CRASH: After SPX Tanks 8.27 % Momentum Turns To Bullish At Extremes - SPX Bounce Likely)
Comment:
I shared five screen captures from this video on Telegram. Tradingview readers will just need to watch the entire video, lol.

{ Album }
youtu.be/mTA80P4eX2o?t=472
(Is Bitcoin Forming A Bottom? | Crypto Banter)
Comment:

MUST WATCH!

This blows up the argument that Q1 must trade according to fair value for forward P/E ratios. Well done GoT. Market presumes the Fed is hawkish enough to bring Inflation down (and in fact inflation is falling precipitously regardless if it will end up surging again later that is not the reality now. IOW, the market has not yet priced in inflation's reaction to the higher interest rates. Remember we will likely get one more significant risk-on rally before the recession actually starts when the Fed is forced to ease because of rising unemployment which has not started yet.

youtu.be/zNw4xNk1qWM?t=114
(This Only Just Got Started: Data Shows Us the SP500 Is Still Exactly Like May 2001 and June 1970 | Game of Trades)

The following is incorrect and myopic:

seekingalpha.com/art...151-by-year-end-2023

My comment on that Seeking Alpha blog:

> "Meet Kevin revealed recent Fed publications pointing to only 12,000 jobs created in 2022, lag in rents as a major component of CPI being misleading, as well as charts indicating oil headed to $65 and natural gas below $3. I think the markets will price in Fed overshooting into deflation (instead of disinflation) with a massive rally back up to 20 forward P/E. Game of Trades just pointed this out comparing to the late 1960s scenario. CPI is YoY change with declining prices means negative percentage change!"
Comment:
Do you guys understand this? Seems most people are oblivious to the fact that as commodity prices are declining this means YoY inflation could head much lower than what people are expecting. Lagging rent BS in the CPI computation has been obscuring the fact that CPI has reversed. Yeah Armstrong might be correct that inflation heads back up again in a few months but the markets have yet to price into forward P/E ratios the fact that Fed is very likely to create even deflation at least temporarily. This bounce in oil to $82 is a last bull trap before the drop to $65. The markets will have to price in this reality before any future yet unforeseen reality of resurgent inflation in the future. Yeah China may open back up and eventually create more demand for oil and such, but they probably have a stockpile of inventory already and the easing of the supply chains with more goods flowing causing more disinflation is the more likely immediate effect. The fear about a wage-price spiral is nonsense if it is true that only 12,000 jobs were created per recent Fed paper. Tech is laying off employees and other Big-Tech are envious that Musk cut workforce by 75%. Amazon and others to compete with Musk as Big-tech is under intense pressure to downside as the surplus of demand from the p(L)andemic subsides. Sure the new bill passing through Congress will elevate govt spending again but that is some months from now. This is why any Q1 rally will fail, as well as the economy will roll over into recession eventually but with massive govt spending coming in 2023, the recession may be pushed off into 2024. Also the forward earnings need to reflect this massive govt stimulus coming in 2023, which I think the Seeking Alpha article totally failed to incorporate.
Comment:
{ Album }
Nike has already returned to positive earnings after 2 quarters of negative earnings. China will be disinflation or deflation force in November and December at least! Remember January inflation reports will be retrospective.

January economic data releases could surprise the market which overly bearish. Fedex reported firming consumer demand with declining costs, while downsizing to level of new lower level of demand from prior declines (i.e. laying off workers).

Not a macro, broad collapse, rather more of an ecommerce reset to post-pLandemic normalization with solid underlying demand.

youtu.be/53GCET67j0U
(Santa will FLIP The Stock Market | Meet Kevin)
Comment:
{ Album }
Fed turned nasty in December, revising projections for economic growth down and inflation up, making the markets very pessimistic. This moved everyone to NPC mindless, groupthink one-side of the trade. In this video Kevin was thinking the lag of owner's equivalent rents in CPI won't be reflected until Q2 and Q3.

youtu.be/Op7-XrIbiEk
(Timing The Federal Reserve's U-Turn | Meet Kevin)

BLS has said unemployment plummeting & created 2M jobs, but household survey says only 12k jobs created! Now the Fed is admitting it! New Fed working paper admits lagging rents in CPI is misleading! Leading housing indicator is horrific, Fed will create massive deflation! Companies to buy back stock with excess cash than invest, bcz downsizing in anticipation of recession!

youtu.be/Z7zYPkq443Q
(PROOF the Fed & Jerome Powell was LIED To | Flip Coming) <—MUST WATCH

Stonks Gamer commented:

> "No mistakes Kevin they are doing it on purpose to "have to" do more stimulus checks but now with the new cbdc coin as that will be so much more efficient in giving everyone cash. Thus transitioning us to a fully digital currency they track and control in every possible way."
Comment:
My post from Oct 10. Harmonic patterns projecting...note a target of 0.62 - 0.79 (~1.07 - 1.10) or 1.127 - 1.62 (~1.18 - 1.24) of XA on the Gartley reversal/bottoming pattern for the EURO:

school.stockcha...ts.com/doku.php?id=trading...

The EURUSD has bullish Gartley reversal pattern and bullish RSI divergence on the weekly and monthly:


Natural Gas has a Shark pattern projection to $3:

Comment:
Video I cited today from OPTICALARTdotCOM had Fib circles for Euro:USD which he interpreted to be a short at ~1.07 (current price) but he admitted if breaks above that then next move is up to ~1.24. Euro boost black swan incoming...as Croatia goes full retard to join the Great Reset...

www.ft.com/content/1...c8-9157-71aefb5cf2e0
(Croatia anticipates economic boost as it prepares to adopt euro)

> "Former Yugoslav nation long in pursuit of closer integration with EU switches to single currency on January 1"

> "The central bank, meanwhile, has brought in the army to store and guard some 40 per cent of kuna coins that it expects to be exchanged for euros."


Armstrong private blog on Dec. 16, stated that is Euro:USD closes above 1.0775 for year end then upside, if below 1.0635 then vulnerable to downside. Either way, 2023 a major bull trap for the Euro with 0.41 target into 2027/2028.

www.armstrongeconomi...r-end-book-squaring/

Looks like there could be a major rally on the Euro:USD. Something is happening. Poland and Germany looking to buy oil from Russia. Will the sanctions be averted because oil drops below the $60 threshold of the sanctions anyway? Lol.

www.armstrongeconomi...rom-russia-for-2023/

Who else assimilates all of this like I do? I have collected a lot of information from many sources. Even Armstrong should be paying attention to me!

Note the $65 oil target after a bull trap to $82 is from YT vlogger FX Evolution.

I pretty much had this all figured out in October. Now it is all playing out as the chart patterns were projecting.
Comment:
Archived including all comments
(this required a tweak to the archived url)
Comment:
Holy Batman. Manipulations have shown up in the charts.

GoT didn't make this precise point in the previously cited video (This Only Just Got Started: Data Shows Us the SP500 Is Still Exactly Like May 2001 and June 1970 | Game of Trades). Yet notice that the bottom in ~1970 was just after when inflation rolled over same as now (even though bottom was lower on days 200 DMA trending down). Thus bottomed for at least a significant relief rally, i.e. ditto for the corresponding case May 2001. Inflation was much more egregiously accelerated and exaggerated this time thus earlier termination (duh it was intentional, premediated by Brandon et al). Thus relief rally will be accelerated and larger (red inflation further gap below below forward P/E in prior cited video)

BINGO!!! 🎯🎯🎯

youtu.be/BlJRpT_Gh4g
(History Shows Us That This Will End Within 5 Months. | SP500 Volatility Is at a Pivotal Moment | Game of Trades)
Comment:
> "I watched the GoT vid (noted he expected a drop to $15,957 if $16,697 is broken), plus The Crypto Trader. Waiting to see where we go. Neither bullish or bearish."
>
> "Appreciate all your efforts as regards research and brainstorming btw."


I am more than 50% convinced (80?) any lower-low is irrelevant as Bitcoin will be above $30k by March. I do not want to miss that. I do think it is probable will at least retest near to lows, possibly lower $14.9k, and even still remotely possible $13,9k. For me below $13k is out of the cards now before the posited Q1 rally.

Yw. I needed to do it for myself and others. Hope it's correct. I am sleep deprived a.t.m. so factor that in, but I'm alert.

EDIT: you mean the OPTICALARTdotCOM video.
Comment:
Click link for MXN:USD Forecast Array. C.f. MXN:USD exchange history also.

> "Do not delay getting your capital out of the E.U. and U.K. in 2022. This is going to heat up in 2023 and will go berserk in 2024. Appears that it will be impossible from 2025 forward. I suppose the CBDCs will be activated and everyone’s funds over there will be locked down. The year 2025 looks like an utter horror. Remember 2025 is the year Deagel.com predicted 50 – 75% depopulation of NATO countries. Some kind of utter insanity is ahead. I am making the correct decision to diversify out of the West."
>
> www.armstrongeconomi...he-flight-to-mexico/


Is that collapse in 2025 all capital controls, or is the currently freedom-oriented Mexican Prez replaced with a Great Reset sycophant?

Yet MXN peso has been declining since 2022 consistent with the Direction Change. So does the peso's decline cease in 2024/25?

No Volatility 2025, as if no liquidity. Looks like capital controls to me. Then legacy Bitcoin (1989 Economist Mag's cover story Phoenix) starts rising in 2026/7.
Comment:
> "If you had to guess, what do you think the 2023 top will be (let’s assume no G7 country introduces CBDC to the general public)"

Bitcoin $30 - $35k no later than April. Might try for another high in Q4 2023/Q1 2024, before the MEGA CRASH to ~$10k. My thesis 2019 is more or less repeating. Will rhyme but not exact duplicate.

> "Working on growing my business so we can exit to have the resources to do it the way I want. That’s the #1 priority"

I doubt that is going to work out. You probably better start thinking about needing to share economies-of-scale with others. One of the reasons I have a mutual interest in your thoughts/plans.

Still a small chance I launch an altcoin to generate $millions.
Comment:
Gareth Soloway thinks a "rip your face off rally" to ~$30k may catch people off guard before the $10k low after May.

youtu.be/AOF8v6k7YZY
(Gareth Soloway: Bitcoin Will Shock Everyone By This Date!)
Comment:
OPTICALARTdotCOM has moved his support level down and by now have already crossed over the ring. Looks like we are probably headed up, before any later retest in January:

youtu.be/xJ1KaSMCM24
(Emergency Bitcoin update! Time Sensitive!)
Comment:
Ron Walker also thinks a bull trap rally is incoming. OPTICALARTdotCOM is still in a long-position but does not rule out a drop to $15k first.

youtu.be/dzTg-Mz_tNQ
(Epic Bitcoin suckers rally pump incoming! | OPTICALARTdotCOM)
Comment:
youtu.be/RX0pRSotrjE
(My Stock Market CRASH Were Right! Bounce Likely As NASDAQ & SPX Get Bullish Candle Reversal Patterns | Ron Walker)
Comment:
youtu.be/0o-uMhYtjx4
(S&P 500 Stock Market CRASH: The Put/Call Ratio Surges To New Highs Again! Big Short Squeeze Coming! | Ron Walker)
Comment:
This argues that crypto likely to make a lower-low in 2023, possibly it will even be in January after any bounce this week, but will be significantly higher than current price sometime in 2023. Also 2024 and 2025 are likely to be bullish. However, this does not factor in the first recession that crypto has experienced and that 2022 was Bitcoin's first yearly bearish, engulfing candle. I am not ruling out a wick low in 2024. I do agree sometime in 2023 the price will be higher than it is now. I do agree crypto appears to be preparing for a temporary bottom perhaps in January.

youtu.be/_4QNW2A1saU
(Why 2023 Could Provide Investors With The Greatest Opportunities!)
Comment:
If the S&P forms another Shark pattern on lower-low, then the target would be ~$3400 - 3420. This would seem to be compatible with the $1000 harmonic pattern low expected for ETH. So maybe BTC is going to make a lower-low after the posited bull trap bounce this week.

Comment:
Remember there's two corroborating harmonic patterns on ETH pointing to ~$1000 bottom incoming. Thus perhaps more predictive unlike the Shark pattern on the S&P which can continue to ratchet lower and lower if the prior one is invalidated.
Comment:
Probabilities continue favor Bitcoin rallying a bit before dropping to establish the final bottom:

youtu.be/eGQ2IFNIw0Y
(Be A Bitcoin Winner In 2023)
Comment:
Fed's Bullard just further shifted the narrative to the Fed's nearing a pause. Here comes our bull trap as expected.

youtu.be/sRTw2GNzaLI
(A Key Part of the Fed *JUST* Flipped.)
Comment:
ETH may complete a 30+% bull trap move over next couple of weeks or so:

youtu.be/5mH1M78Xm5A?t=251
(Ethereum January Price Statistics)
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...ctober-Accumulation/

> > "I resisted commenting on your most recent Bitcoin update, but I thought support would hold at least for a bounce into January. After that there might be one more leg down for a bottom. Regardless I am expecting a face ripping rally in Q1 after the bottom forms."
>
> "@shelby3, are you referring to the run to S&P 4300 as the face ripper?"

@JerryManders, yeah not thinking new ATH until 2025. Fed's Bullard hinted yesterday a pause in rate hikes will be signaled soon. Market will front run that. Historically the markets rally into the pause or easing before the lagging effect of recession drags everything back down. Also my model is the overlords are premeditating global events to force flash crashes to force the central banks into supporting egregious stagflation and ultimately self-immolation as the pathway to the NWO wherein legacy Bitcoin will rise as the Phoenix world reserve asset in a multi-polar world from the ashes post-WW3. Probably escalation in Ukraine to direct conflict between NATO and Russia widening the scope of the war, capital controls and supply chain disruption. Thus another bout of flash crash event (2019-2020 is repeating more or less) leading to worsening price inflation with even more egregious central banks off-the-rails. Btw, Mark Moss just pointed out that bank bail-ins are coming to the U.S. eventually. FDIC only insures 125B and 12.5T of assets. Bank deposits are unsecured creditors. My current thesis is a bull trap bounce incoming in January, possibly a retest down, then the full on face ripper ending by April-ish. Yet I am open to Q2 face ripper scenario, although that seems to be a lower probability based on the signals I am looking at. Will be curious to see what you are detecting in your mathematical-based analyses?
Comment:
Hope you guys have been riding this rally up. I bought DOGE at $0.068 and it hit $0.078 already today. Bought ETH $1192 and it's hit $1320 already, probably headed to ~$1550 after some consolidation and back fill test of this breakout.

youtu.be/_lOxU94K4pE
(Bitcoin Breaks Out As Predicted!!! Last Chance! Big BTC Rally Likely Towards 20K)
Comment:
Bitcoin is carving out a bottom. Main conclusion is there will likely be a significant bounce at some point on 2023 and 2024 should start a new bull market. This does not guarantee that Bitcoin can't go lower.

It has been pitiful to see Marting Armstrong entirely miss the boat on crypto. And never once helping his subscribers reap the enormous gains of each 4 year bull market cycle. The man who claims to be so astute about cycles, can not seem to see that Bitcoin has a repeating 4.3 year cycle, 2.1 years up and 2,1 years down.

youtu.be/H2gYtplI_rs
(Bitcoin Just Flashed TORNADO WARNING | Crypto Crew University)
Comment:
This video is also supporting the thesis that the 4 year Bitcoin cycle is intact:

youtu.be/XE6Gkt65FhA
(My 2023 CRYPTO Predictions - Wyckoff w/ Ryan)
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...o-Drop-to-0-in-2023/

> "ah btc will be 0 okey im buying now 2millions usd😁😁"

@GUIDE_BJV, you better read more slowly and in detail. I never said legacy protocol Bitcoin will go to 0. I said if you store your Bitcoin in non-legacy addresses (i.e. that begin with a 3 or bc1 instead of a 1), then you BTC will be donated to the miners. Now please prove me wrong by not storing your BTC in addresses that begin with a 1. I will be laughing at you. Now if you paid attention and I ended up saving your a$$ then you should thank me in the end. Because nobody else bothered to inform you.
Comment:

Short-term hoping for crypto to back test a tad to posited support.




Comment:
Looks like more upside to go.

youtu.be/d8sr__P0x4Y
(Market CRASH: S&P 500 Gets A Bearish Shooting Star & Reverses At Gap Resistance Erasing The Rally | Ron Walker)

Also OPTICALARTdotCOM has a new video still expecting Bitcoin to push higher.
Comment:
I have Bitcoin rallying to at least $18.6k after a pullback. And as high as ~$21k. ~10 - 20% gains.


After pullbacks ETH and DOGE also looking bullish up to ~25%.


Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...OrUYA-SPX-Structure/

Per my recent reply, I posit the posited right shoulder is not fully formed yet. The October low matched a bullish Shark harmonic pattern bottom, projecting 4650 - 4925. Yet another Shark bottom could form with a drop to 3400. Crypto has formed bottoming patterns though. My guess is a rally now ~4030, following by drop lower than the December low to completely form the right shoulder. Followed by rallies into Q2 as was the case (even for Bitcoin) in 2019. Martin Armstrong has Panic Cycles in April and a peak in May/June on his A.I. data mining Forecast Array. I was originally thinking there would be a high in Q1 with those being a crash in Q2. Now I am thinking more of a repeat of 2019 - 2020 with another COVID-style flash crash coming in Q1 2024 to align with the recession. Possibly Russia nukes Kviv as Macron has suggested he do, if he wants the E.U. contingent of NATO to have second thoughts about Brandon's intentional provocation in Ukraine.

Comment:
My current analysis is that 2019 - 2020 is repeating more or less. Thus an intense rally sometime in 2023 ($35 - 50k), then eventually rolling over into a recession. Could be a flash crash recession again due to some new coordinated malfeasance akin to COVID but perhaps instead nuclear war or a cyber attack blamed on Russia.

It's unclear if the current bounce underway is the big one for 2023. I think probably not. I think this bounce will top out below $22k (if even that) and one more retest of the bottom (possibly lower) into March. Then same as 2019, a rocket launch in April, perhaps because of a Fed pause.

So we will want to sell into that 2023 rally. Then repurchase in probably Q1 2024, then ride that new bull market to new ATHs by 2025.

Note, make sure you are storing your BTC in legacy addresses that start with 1, not 3 nor bc1. It's a possibility for non-legacy addresses to be donated to the miners if there is a restoration of the Nash equilibrium with the taking of the pay-to-script-hash booty.
Comment:
Bitcoin appears to be prepping for a run to $35 - 58k in Q2. Probably coming back down after this rally to retest one more time, but not sure if will make lower-low or not. For me below $13.5k is a very low probability before this posited Q2 rally


ETH is prepping for a Q2 rally to $3200.


Yet BTC is poised to be dominant again on this rally repeating 2019. Also BTC Dominance appears to be in a bear flag, thus altcoins to perform much better in 2024! Is that ANYONECANSPEND attack coming against the impostor, non-legacy protocol Bit-cOn?



ETH:BTC looks like it could drop to 0.053 - 0.076 thus $42 - 60k, albeit 0.064 - 0.68 looks like a sweet spot which is $47 - 50k.

Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...2023-Year-From-Hell/

@goodblackcat, we agree except you are buying into this FOMO which is what we need for one more rejection and retest. Not sure it will make a lower low. This could be the rally of 2023 underway if the S&P can clear overhead resistance and flip the bearish divergences bullish. I am still researching this possibility. Also my indications are that BTC will be dominant on this 2023 rally but not as dominant as 2019. Yes I might create a new thread if have the time to prepare an organized summary of this thread and the new focus.
Comment:

Don't chase this. Massive hidden bearish RSI divergence on weekly and daily, as well as overhead resistance downtrend line and 200 DMA. I am waiting for significant retest down. It could rally all the way to $22k instead without any retest but I am not chasing this because I doubt this is the launch of the major 2023 rally:


Also waiting for ETH to retest breakout:


And DOGE is too near to the posited end of this rally for the short-term, and later in January will open up to much higher prices:

Comment:
S&P and Nasdaq forming bearish H&S. Also rally into the CPI report has been bearish every time. Also earnings season is starting off with bearish projections for Q1, such as TMSC warning of 0% growth for Q1. I'm not as bearish as these two though.

youtu.be/panxtlSL78g
(Bitcoin Rally As Predicted To Form Yet Another Bear Flag - Once Completed BTC Will CRASH To 8K or 9K)

youtu.be/G9uhtJOr0TU
(Epic VIX Complacency Crash Signal Flashes For First Time in Decades)
Comment:
I think it's quite plausible that the S&P has already bottomed and Shark harmonic projecting to 4750 - 4950. Question is does come back down and form a right shoulder the larger posited, bullish inverse H&S (by completing a smaller posited, bearish H&S) or is a bullish W pattern underway soon to breakout above that major downtrend line? The latter would surprise everyone. We need to look closely at indicators to see if too many are shorting this rally, then it could be the latter?

Comment:
This is guesswork but it called the recent bottom exactly with a confluence. It's indicating the bottom in March to be either above ~$13.4k or ~$9k. I will bet on the former, not the latter. The bottom could also already be in.

Comment:

OPTICALARTdotCOM has Bitcoin topping out at ~$20.5k on about Jan 27 though the end of January.

youtu.be/EeJG7lSU8s4
(Bitcoin will top out at this exact price on this exact day and crash!)

I had some confluence already charted which matches that prediction, possibly with a move first to ~$19.6k after a retest of $18.6k, with a possible retest of ~$18.1k before the top. Concurs with the S&P making one more surge to ~4029 before a pullback before the double test of overhead resistance (c.f. the Money Time Machine video I shared earlier today). Ron Walker (The Crypto Trader) also has a 0.786 Fib retracement level ~$20.2k. If so, his bear flag will be invalidated, unless an intraday wick above ~$19.6k.



Assuming ETH pulls back to $1352 if BTC retests $18.1k, they both have about the same upside. DOGE doesn't appear to have more upside either.


Comment:
Fed liquidity has stopped being predictive and is following the S&P.

Bitcoin surprised obviously. Watch out for the debt ceiling crisis in the U.S. next week!! That might be the catalyst to bring the market back down? Fear of less supply of Treasuries could send interest rates back up? Less government spending could impact company earnings thus driving stock markets down?

The dumb money has been FOMOing on this rally while the smart money has been selling (c.f. latest FX Evolution video).

I will be preparing to go short on Bitcoin. Will follow-up on that as I partake of my study and hopefully another follow-up from OPTICALARTdotCOM. Remember I had a chart showing Bitcoin could rally as high as $23k which also is the upper end of Eric Krown Crypto's statistical indicator. So we need to wait and see how OPTICALARTdotCOM pivots his macro understanding if Bitcoin closes above $21k and moves higher invalidating his current thesis to short from that level.

Watch this!

youtu.be/KmUGa5Ydxt8
(Stock Market Peak Next Week & CRASH Wave 3 Will Begin As Debt Ceiling Crisis Creates Financial Chaos | Ron Walker)

Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...2023-Year-From-Hell/

@goodblackcat, debt ceiling fight will give us one more chance to buy lower before the Q2 face ripping rally. C.f. my latest update. Dumb money has been FOMOing in. This was a short covering rally that caused the dumb money to be sucked in for the slaughter.
Comment:
Decent probability that Bitcoin pulls back ~$20.4k over the weekend, then makes another move next week to ~$23k to finish off this FOMO pump. If so, OPTICALARTdotCOM has to completely alter his current thesis. I will not try to call the likely pullback range for Bitcoin in March yet. Also waiting for Ron Walker (The Crypto Trader) to update his Bitcoin analysis because his bear flag thesis was just blown out of the water.

youtu.be/Ct_VMZWwLu4?t=402
(Bitcoin Bull-Zooka Has Arrived | Eric Krown Crypto)
Comment:
VIX has bullish RSI divergence and structurally appears to be roughly at the comparable juncture to April 15, 2019. Yet key differences are Bitcoin hasn't yet formed a higher low as it had, and the trajectory is much more lower curvature rounded, less U-turn or V-shaped. So expect Bitcoin to come back down significantly to form a higher low at least. Also the strongest level of overhead resistance back in 2019 was at the April breakout level, not up at the incoming posited ~$23k end of the breakout as currently. This rally is a Wycoff retracement of the Nov 7 FTX dump (twitter.com/GertvanL.../1613679250149720069) from $21.4k, not a macro scale Wycoff. Thus should pullback from ~$23k perhaps to ~$18k (youtu.be/3-aNeqAcZK8?t=789) (buy the higher low of the subsequent Mark Down (medium.datadriveninv...tor.com/94b4934f6fb8)).


Comment:
Guy from Coin Bureau thinks this current FOMO pump will fade. (He also worries the opening of China might recreate/extend the COVID nonsense)

youtu.be/mq-TjmiFSHc?t=40
(Prepare For What's Coming - Coin Bureau Update)

I replied:

> "It's interesting to see how much emotions can affect a market. Looks like everyone that fear dumped FTX just fomo'ed back in on a short squeeze. I think the fed is going to clamp these rallies in February, but who knows, really."

Also the looming debt ceiling crisis. This will come back down to at least a higher low. Notice how in 2019 there was already a higher low before the face ripping rally. The face ripping rally is coming but probably not until April.

> "Reading the comments I feel like everyone has PTSD and is in disbelief that the bear market is potentially over. These are the same people that will fomo in after 30k . If you were DCA'ing the entire time down and more aggressively when things are down 90+% you'd already be in the profit"

Okay moonboy. Don't cry over the looming debt ceiling crisis and the lack of a higher low yet (c.f. 2019). The face ripping rally is coming but probably not until April.

> "Getting back to before FTX collapse is normal in my opinion. Not buying is still a mistake because the next pump will be to Luna collapse."

Yep eventually, but don't cry over the looming debt ceiling crisis, Fed reasserting hawkishness in February, and the lack of a higher low yet (c.f. 2019). The face ripping rally is coming but probably not until April.

> "Hm, let me see…what would the crypto market do when everyone thinks it’s going to take longer than usual to start a bull market?🤔"

And when many have your thought and FOMO in before a higher low has been established prior to the face ripping rally, c.f. 2019.

> "Up too fast too much. Not organic growth, bull trap. Start buying in 6 months at these prices 15/18k"

> "@RicVee1 lol 9k is a dream. What's going to drive that? If FTX didn't do it what on earth will?"


@Jeff Burg that $9k may come in the posited Q1 2024 recession which could be a corona-like flash crash. Possibly Russia nukes Kyiv as Macron has invited him to do or a cyber attack on everyone's bank account promulgated by our overlords erroneously blamed on Russia (another false-flag as was the pLandemic of a billion flu tests). There will be a face ripping rally in 2023 as was the case in 2019. 2019 is repeating but we need a higher low before the face ripping rally probably by April.
Comment:
The Bitcoin pump is ahead of the reality. FX Evolution pointed out that these 200% pumps in meme stocks such as Bed, Bath & Beyond typically correspond with a top on the market, as they typically come near the end of a rally.

youtu.be/LEsWyA3rJjQ
(BITCOIN BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET FOMO RALLY with Gareth Soloway)
Comment:
Bitcoin just had a monthly cross on Eric Krown Crypto's stochastic indicator. Statistically this has always marked a macro bottom and led to a ~240% rally. Thus targeting ~$57k. Interesting his $57k is the upper end of the range I wrote about this week, based on a different method of analysis (the harmonic pattern on ETH chart projecting to $3200 and ETH:BTC and Bitcoin Dominance projecting $35 - $57k). Obviously not necessarily underway immediately. The June 2015 instances actually came back down to test the bottom before rallying.

youtu.be/Qj37lPjvaLU?t=432
(Bitcoin Is $30,000 Realistic In 2023)
Comment:
There will be a stock market rally in 2023. 7:00 a lot of smart money traders missed the 2020 rally. 33:00 options expiry this week, should end the week approximately 390 (i.e. 3900) for max pain.

youtu.be/Y6cfvrufaVg?t=325
(Is This The Beginning Of A New Stock Rally? 80 Years Of History Tell Us This... | FX Evolution)
Comment:
Armstrong is now contemplating a SLING SHOT rally kicking off in earnest by April peaking by end of June. He contemplates that his A.I. Socrates model Weekly Forecast array Panic Cycle in early February night be the retest down to get everyone back to thinking recession, then a SLING SHOT up due to some geopolitical event which forces capital flight to accelerate again to the U.S. (but wouldn't that cause the dollar to rally thus making being incompatible with a risk-on rally?). Although I am think it could simply be the Fed forced to turn less hawkish after the debt ceiling crisis creates sufficient drag on the economy thus accelerating the Fed's planned pause?

www.armstrongeconomi...-sling-shot-in-2023/
Comment:
Gareth Soloway also expects ETH:BTC to break out to ~0.137. So given I was thinking it might decline first to on the posited 2023 rally, perhaps that rally will come in 2024? If instead coincides with posited 2023 rally then Bitcoin would only rally to $25k if ETH to $3200ish. Note ETH:BTC did outperform on the finally rally in Jan/Feb before the March 2020 COVID crash. So maybe a repeat?

youtu.be/9oinEGKzz6Y
(Gareth Soloway - Bitcoin Is About To Shock Everyone.)


Comment:
Ron Walker is skeptical of this Bitcoin rally pointing out that the dollat is at key support! Good point. Dollar likely to rally with the looming debt ceiling crisis.

What's very interesting is that if $69k was end of wave 3 then if this was the bottom, Bitcoin would need to rally to new ATH to complete wave 5. THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN. Thus the correct E.W. count is that $69k was end of wave 5, thus any 2023 bounce will be a W-X-Y (A-B-C) correction meaning unlike in 2020, the 2024 crash would make a lower-low. Ah ha! That's exactly what I've been expecting. I have predicted this back in summer of 2021!!!

youtu.be/tHGSsu8s2ck <== click to see E.W. counts.
(Could This Be The Bitcoin Bottom? The Signal That Called The Top & Predicted The CRASH Turns Bullish)
Comment:
Yeah I like this idea a lot. Looks like a bottom in W-X-Y corrective pattern which will take BTC up to $35 - 57k for wave X, then back down to a lower-low inQ1 2024 for the next variant of the March 2020 corona crash. I bet come back down to test that yellow uptrend line ~$17.5k before rockets in April. Essentially 2019 is repeating exactly as I had predicted since summer of 2021 when I had identified the megaphone pattern.

I will start scaling in bullish on any correction even if only to $19.5k. We can not be sure this will not run (to $23k or beyond). Pullbacks should be bought. But keep in mind the possibility of one more retest nearer to lows, but perhaps not below $17.5k.

Comment:
Click this to see the chart which supports the thesis of a 2023 rally followed by a 2024 lower-low:

youtu.be/sQXh7lA_c3E?t=410
Comment:
> "7:00 a lot of smart money traders missed the 2020 rally"

Large Traders (i.e. the smart money) are the most bearish they have ever been, repeating their May 2020 incorrect bearishness.

youtu.be/KBsBhkcvTr0
(They Are Exiting the SP500 Before the Big Rug Pull. | Largest Outflow Since December 2021.)
Comment:
> "So what do you think is the move"

I think the move is up this week, after possibly a pullback to $19.5k.

I am leaning to a retest below $19k after this week. And then a significant rally beginning in April. But I can not rule out that the rally will continue unabated from here.

I think the markets will crash again to lower lows in Q1 2024.

This is guesswork based in conjectured probabilities. If everyone is expecting a pullback over the 3 day weekend, maybe it doesn't come to fruition and up we go.
Comment:
Bitcoin looks likely to head quickly to $23 - 25k (this week or next), after a shallow retest $19.5 - $20.4k. There's a CME gap ~$19.9k. I think the deeper retrace will come after this rally terminates at those levels, probably $23k with perhaps a wick to $25k.

youtu.be/VEii-B8nXIM
(Bitcoin This Will Create Massive Opportunity | Eric Krown Crypto)
Comment:
People are calling for a larger pullback thinking this is an inverted H&S but that neckline does not exist! This looks more like a Cup & Handle and this Cup may already be or soon-to-be completed? I bet maximum pullback to ~$20k at the 0.236 Fib.

The projections for the C&H are in the same ballpark as the Fib extensions ~23k or ~$25k. Will we get there by the first week of February at the latest, then correction? Or is Armstrong's Forecast Array Panic Cycle in the 2nd week of February on some markets going to a massive move to upside?

thepatternsite.com/cup.html

Comment:
Correction down in early February before rallying into March/April? Massive puts to expire worthless on February 17 if the price gets slammed back down.

youtu.be/NVGWwDE5SuQ
(The Last 7 Times We Saw This Bad Things Happened To The Stock Market...)
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=03txnH10...
(Monster Crash Signals From 2002 & 2008 Flash Again After 15 Years | Money Time Machine)

Kal Moan can't just go compare a fractal and conclude that the same environment is in play without analyzing the environment actually in play. If you did that you would realize this video is complete nonsense. I suggest you partake of Game of Trades, Q4 Newsletter – Today’s Fears Won’t Be Tomorrow’s: The Fed and Beyond. Those Dotcom and 2008 G.F.C. crashes came as unemployment was rising precipitously, Fed interest rate hiking cycle had peak many months prior, and this was the end of a multidecade secular bull market that repeated in duration before. The current secular bull market is not yet near to the duration to rollover sideways for 10 years as it did from 2000 and 1970. The 200 WMA will hold as support in a secular bull market. There's always a rally at the end of the interest raising peak. Never has a Xmas and January rally every ended with negative year. I do think there could be one more retest down, but not a lower-low.
Comment:
twitter.com/GameofTr.../1616495774048702465
(click for the chart)

The lower this indicator, the lesser the selling pressure in the market

Who’s left to sell? Hardly anyone

Max pain to the upside
Comment:
Exact repeat of 2019-2020 underway in 2023. First leg down bounces of 200 WMA, then the Q1 2024 crash will pierce it!

Comment:

Bitcoin could be done, but I am expecting likely ~$25k before this has a major pullback in February. A new bullish 9 day count has started, although also on 10 of 13 day countdown.


I don't think Bitcoin will go above ~$25k, so I am sort of in agreement with Ron Walker (The Crypto Trader), except he still entertains the possibility that Bitcoin could make a higher-low or a lower-low after the peak perhaps this coming week or next. I am confident of a higher-low (perhaps $18.3 - $19.6k, lowest $17.7k), which I will buy hand & fist.

On my log-scaled DXY chart the dollar already break down below the uptrend line and thus any rally will only be back test before going much lower.

Major bearish divergence on the 4-hourly chart.

youtu.be/gpHqNncPVdM?t=19
(Bitcoin Forming A MoonBoy Bull Trap! MoonBoy Indicator Warns BTC CRASH Coming! Dollar Breakout Soon!)
Comment:
Scenarios...

Comment:
Eric Krown Crypto has been nailing this entire rally off the bottom in advance. Watch this on double-speed. Bitcoin has very likely bottomed. Likely continuation to $23.1k perhaps a pullback to ~$22k, then onwards ~$25k to finish this move perhaps by end of first week of February.

youtu.be/zEe93wZFKkA
(Bitcoin Do You Know How Far This Rally Will Go? )
Comment:

Pullback then Cup&Handle targets?

Target, Max Upside
~$22.2k BTC, +10%
~$1615 ETH, +25%
~$0.083 DOGE (0.0815 - 0.0855), +35%

DOGE:BTC bottoming? Speculating that BTC will slowdown now and altcoins will catch up as the signal of the end of this Elliot wave #1 of the 2023 bull run.




Crazy speculation that DOGE is projecting to 4× leverage on BTC on the 2023 bull run, possibly more than 10× gain in price, yet could decline significantly on posited wave #2 pullback. Essentially BTC to $40 - 55k and DOGE to ~0.60 - 0.80. Alternatively 2× leverage so ~$0.40 and BTC ~$35 - 45k. Latter probably more realistic, bcz the harmonic projection on ETH ~$3200 - 3300 after $1360 pullback, so maybe only ~0.5× leverage if that. Other scenario is DOGE:BTC declines to 0.03 as BTC rallies to ~$57k, thus $0.17. If 2019 repeats altcoins underperform.

Comment:
Pullback to $20.4k then next week or first of February one final move to $25.2k? After that a pullback into Feb/Mar for the right Head of a bullish, inverse H&S? So far my projections have been hit precisely.


Comment:
Correction: 22.4k pullback.
Comment:
Bitcoin low is in until after a major rally.

youtu.be/6JGlU5gJnBM
(Bitcoin The Macro Low Is In For Price )
Comment:
Very likely to get rejected at ~$25k and a major pullback but not lower than ~$17.5k. Then on up from there.

youtu.be/RxV3kiDnP7M?t=169
(BITCOIN: THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING!!!!! DON’T SCREW THIS UP!!!! 🚨 | Crypto Zombie)
Comment:
Headed back to $25k.

youtu.be/5QnlQ2XRXA8?t=154
(History is About to Repeat on Bitcoin. | Why PAIN for Crypto Investors Continues. Wyckoff Analysis)
Comment:
EDIT: Bitcoin low is in until after a major rally. Wave B of an A-B-C correction is underway.

youtu.be/6JGlU5gJnBM
(Bitcoin The Macro Low Is In For Price )
Comment:
Bitcoin is overdue for a pullback retest, but I think it will make one more move up to between the 200 WMA (~$24.6k) and 50 WMA (~25.9k) but most likely not higher than horizontal resistance ~$24.9k. This could be a wick up and might be difficult to sell if don't have limit orders waiting. There's strong confluence (200 DMA and former downtrend line resistance turned support) around a pullback price ~$19.6k.


Frankly the downtrend resistance for that next move up looks dubious on the BTC and S&P charts. Immediate drop would fit the T/A well, but an overshoot of the more solid downtrend line seems to be likely to lure in FOMO for the bull trap and presumably so many shorts with SLs at those too obvious overhead, downtrend resistance lines.



Whereas ETH sports a less dubious wick up to $1775 - 1800, then pullback to $1375 - 1400.


Supported by Nasdaq which appears to have more upside as I don't think that bearish H&S is valid.


And VIX not yet hit up trendline target.


Dollar could make one more drive down.

Comment:
Steve @ Crypto Crew University has essentially the same outlook as I do. Up to his one red MA curve just below $25k, then down to his other red MA vurve ~$19.6k. After that the bull run probably continues into Q2.

youtu.be/TLSrOpjbkSc
(Bitcoin About To Have GOLDEN CROSS – It’s NOT What You Think)
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...2023-Year-From-Hell/

> > > Better watch out for underestimating BTC's momentum. It's a momentum acceleration game. It is possible that BTC will catch the God Candle, I mean, over 20% in 1 day.
> >
> > @goodblackcat, I do not have enough fingers to count how many times you have been wrong since I have known you over the past 2+ years. Yes Bitcoin is going to complete wave B in Q2 of an A-B-C correction. But there will likely be a final scare before the real liftoff.
>
> @shelby3, Amen to that!


@goodblackcat, bull trap then bear trap pullback around this breakout level, then rally into Q2. C.f. my latest updates. I don't think you can be correct that this runs away from us on the bullish side directly, because we need to give the bears one more chance to short the retest thinking it will crash to $11k, lol. Also the bulls will FOMO like mad on any wick breakout which then ideally would fail. Also there are bearish divergences developing.
Comment:
Looking at the Market Calender, perhaps that GDP report on Thursday will be the impetus to push the market one final wick higher. But either the PCE report on Friday or the actual Fed funds rate decision on next Wednesday Feb 1 could start the pullback.

Because there's too much speculation now that the Fed could pause (futures market is betting 33%) or only do 0.25 (67%). Fed is likely to hold off on pivoting from "we will hold rates high for a long-time" (until the March or April meeting), as the bond market has been saying recently they will not be able to do (possible reason for the pump in the markets and for the Nasdaq starting to come alive a bit growth P/E multiples very interest rate sensitive).

www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSQCsZVu...
(Breaking News! 🔥 BLS Will Change How they Compute CPI Thus Drop Faster)

> The Fed uses PCE as their main base rather than CPI. I do think it might trap a lot of retail investors getting excited into pushing money into the market early.

youtu.be/b33ll3R1z2s?t=656
(Bond market leading the Fed back down | Meet Kevin)

Some other videos from Meet Kevin showing that the BLS is going to reinterpret data to support a Fed pivot. Also he had a video which I can't find quickly, where he showed the Fed would change how they interpret owners equivalent rents lag to bring their CPI number down faster as well. So a lot of speculation that Fed pivots in February but Fed will likely disappoint one more time.

youtu.be/sRTw2GNzaLI
(A Key Part of the Fed *JUST* Flipped.)

youtu.be/rnWD_zOPY6A
(The Fed was LIED to *AGAIN* -- SHOCKING Reveal.)
Comment:
Here We Go Again – Altering the Formula for CPI

There are some who are claiming that the revision of the CPI is to help the Federal Reserve stop fighting inflation.

{...}

This is NOT about helping the Fed to lower rates or stop raising rates as the majority seem to be touting. Powell is not that stupid and this will have ZERO impact on Fed decisions going forward. This is all about government spending which is a far greater problem than worrying about the pressure of the Fed. Virtually EVERY program is automatically INDEXED to CPI. Thus, agencies’ budgets are automatically increased each year based on the CPI. Your taxes are indexed to the CPI. By reducing the CPI, they collect more taxes! There is NOBODY in Congress or at the Bureau of Labor Statistics that gives the Fed a second thought.
Comment:
Ron Walker's latest. I think he's too bearish (especially expecting major new lows on S&P and Nasdaq), but at least he now recognizes the possibility of a inverted H&S forming with a pullback on Bitcoin. And he see that we could be in a wave B or a A-B-C correction (he labels it W-X-Y instead).

youtu.be/PWtFiyU5IzY
(If You Believe The Bitcoin Crash Is Over You're In For A Rude Awakening - BTC Crash Coming!)

youtu.be/aCxhZ1H2f5A
(If You Believe The Stock Market CRASH Is Over You're In For A Rude Awakening- KING Of All Indicators)
Comment:
FX Evolution agrees with me. Pullback starting in February.

Another factor is the commodity prices heading back up due to China reopening. This could be another FUD to support a pullback.

youtu.be/SmA5XX1Thig
(Buy The Rumor Sell The Fact Stock Market Trap?)
Comment:
Kyle @ Crypto Banter essentially agrees with me (and bottom is behind us for this wave B) but he doesn't discount a massive wick to close January. I doubt this based on Eric Krown Crypto's statistical analyses. 21:10 The Wycoff analysis in my interpretation (currently early in phase D) seems to indicate a pullback from ~$25k (to end phase D), then a massive rally (for phase E) heading into March or April.

I like his recommendations at the end to buy DOGE, SOL and MATIC and sell $1.10, $36, $1.25 for 25 - 50% gains this week.

youtu.be/7nXR8z4rTiw
(Is Bitcoin About To Have Another Massive Breakout?)
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...-Picture-Supplement/

The BAT harmonic is projecting to 3200 perhaps in April or May. If BTC tops ~$25k with a retest of ~$19.6k, ETH should pullback from ~$1800 to ~$1400. Else if BTC goes parabolic to ~$28k, then ETH to ~$2000 with a pullback below $17k.

Comment:
I was forehead-on-the-keyboard last night as I was watching this, I didn't have time to share it before I crashed in the bed. I did however sell all my altcoins before sleeping to reevaluate in the morning. I woke up and the dip Sheldon @ Crypto Banter was expecting has already occurred. So I am re-accumulating now. He only expects ~$28 move for SOL(ana), not $36.

youtu.be/jt5W2ChVhms?t=1357
(Altcoins' Next Moves Mapped Out?)
Comment:
Bitcoin to correct back to ~$21.2 and ETH to ~$1400? That's clearly a mini Wycoff distribution.


Comment:
Bitcoin retest incoming:

youtu.be/cIzVfqhTkWw
(Breaking: Bitcoin Just Entered Gaussian Channel For FIRST TIME SINCE 2018)
Comment:
Markets appear to be in topping process prepping for a pullback retest. Might shoot up on more time this week.
Comment:
Armstrong's latest private blog is supporting my expectation of pullback (at least for gold), then rallying higher perhaps into April or summer. Perhaps risk-on markets peak in April?

www.armstrongeconomi...ose-of-january-2023/

My comment on the following video:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=iS8--HcO...
(Black swan event to crash all markets within 60 days! | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

> "I have to charts that show we are about to have an epic crash for the stock market, oil and bitcoin. This crash will take place within the next 60 days. This will be a black swan even that will finally pop the everything bubble."

Could it push above the ring for a couple of months, then ride down the ring as it did on the prior ring? That would fit better with my long-standing projections for a rally into April/May then a crash no later than Q1 2024.
Comment:
Gareth thinks Bitcoin will come back down again.

youtu.be/oswt2FaLkvI
(Gareth Soloway Update: Leaving Soon - This Time Is So Different.)
Comment:
Amazing how Bitcoin is tracking gold so precisely but with a lag. And Martin Armstrong still doesn't believe Bitcoin will become the new gold and the new world reserve currency, lol. 🤦🙈

twitter.com/TechDev_.../1618420018664046598
(What if #Bitcoin continues to follow Gold / DXY ?)
Comment:
Is Bitcoin still in a Wycoff accumulation pattern and thus to come back down to test lows one more time? Recent rally a short-covering rally only?

youtu.be/hefoG8hHwRc?t=583
(BUSTED! Whales’ playbook for 2023 | CTO LARSSON)
Comment:
Repeating pattern from 2015 would expect a another retest of lows.

youtu.be/EkRK_BQ89g0?t=374
(Will It GET WORSE For Bitcoin | C.C.U.)

2018 didn't have same pattern (not 3 tests of yellow MA and red MA wasn't curling down)

youtu.be/0pw55R0dDew?t=110
(Bitcoin Faces MEGA FORCEFIELD | C.C.U.) ««« 2 mos ago
Comment:
Whether there's a correction first—which I think is likely at least for the right shoulder of an inverse H&S (if not still in Wycoff accumulation)—Bitcoin is likely to shoot rapidly up to ~$35+k to catch up to gold. Then gold is likely to break out after that to repeat the outperformance from 2019 to 2020. I'm expecting $3k gold in 2024—likely due to escalation of NATO vs. Russia war. Gold is getting stronger, whilst Bitcoin is weakening (this should continue until legacy Bitcoin is restored as the Phoenix world reserve currency).


Comment:
Although Bitcoin is threatening to breakout to $30k, it looks like it's almost done and we will get a correction into March or April to get one more opportunity to buy nearer to $20k before the actual 2023 Fed pivot rally. The bond markets have reversed and are pricing in a Fed funds terminal rate far above 5%. Looks like the market is going to be shocked soon and we will get one more selloff.

youtu.be/krZ1oU1moQo
(Bad News: Bitcoin TORNADO WARNING | Crypto Crew U.)

Steve the bond market has suddenly U-turned pricing in a Fed funds rate far above 5%. Looks the Fed is going to slam the markets back down one more time.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkLUIsHm...
(Bitcoin The Macro Picture Changes Tonight | Eric Krown Crypto)

The bond market u-turned and is pricing a massively higher Fed funds terminal rate. This looks like a bull trap. The macro indicators you cited also have examples where the price came back down to test the low, e.g. 2015. There's bearish divergences all over, e.g. DJIA Transports vs. Industrials, junk bonds not making a higher high, lower highs on the daily RSI, etc.. Bitcoin might make one last gasp up, but that should be all, until a retest nearer to $20k. Or maybe this is some Wycoff retracement of the May/Jane capitulation and there is wild final green dildo up to $30k, then the retest.
Comment:
Very likely to come back down as in 2015, not continue up as in 2019. I think Bitcoin comes back down to ~$20k form a right shoulder of a bullish, inverse H&S pattern.

youtu.be/ozPXRJy6SwQ
(WOW! Bitcoin Just Flashed GREEN On Gaussian Channel | Crypto Crew U.)
Comment:
youtu.be/BQY370P6aHY?t=292
(The Biggest World Debt Market Is Starting To Flash RED! FX Evolution)

4:52 chart of bond market u-turn since Feb 10. Last rate hike projected at July 25 Fed meeting.

6:17 chart of timing of Fed pause, cuts and stock markets. Stock market should rally until Fed pauses.

6:58 stock market should peak ~45 days before last rate hike, bcz highly inverted yield curve. Thus expect summer rally to end in early June.
Comment:
Some officials wanted a 50 basis rate hike in February. Market about to be slammed back down!

Everyone seems to have forgotten that China reopened. This has sent commodities back up.

youtu.be/kT3svvNEqRk?t=153
(The February Fed Minutes May Reveal That Rates Have To Go Much Higher | Mott Capital Management, LLC)
Comment:
My charts on Feb 15 showed that gold has been more bullish than Bitcoin, as was the case in 2019, before Bitcoin rallied to catch up. See that gold is about to breakout to $3k as in did in H2 2019. The 2019 - 2020 is repeat as I identified as a repeating fractal back in summer of 2021!. I was so prescient and early. Then after the $14k peak in 2019, gold outperformed until after the March 2020 flash crash. Remember I am expecting a repeat of this pattern with a flash crash in Q1 or Q2 2024, except it will be worse with Bitcoin to make a lower low in 2024 ~$10k. So I am expecting a correction into March/April, then a rally in June where Bitcoin catches up to gold as it did in 2019. Then underperformance of Bitcoin relative to gold until the crash in 2024.

GoT is seeing the same strength in gold on the stocks-to-gold ratio. Looks like one final rally on this chart for stocks into June, then gold will outperform from 2023 to 2024.

So I am looking to sell some Bitcoin in June, wait for a slight correction in gold, then buy and hold gold until 2024. Repurchase Bitcoin ~$10k in 2024.

youtu.be/1-e5jgIumTA
( We Saw This Happen on the SP500 4 Times Throughout History | It Signaled Massive Turning Points. | Game of Trades)
Comment:
Exactly. Need some correction action before resuming 2023 summer rally.

youtu.be/a70G-E-FWKQ
(Bad News: GAUSSIAN Channel TROUBLE)
Comment:
My comment:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp3cga1a...
(Bitcoin Is $28,000 Reasonable In March | Eric Krown Crypto)

So essentially this week is critical as to whether this is a bull trap or not. If Friday closes below $24k, probably headed back down to at least the bottom of the Gaussian channel ~$20k. Else up to ~$28k. What you're failing to zoom in on is that even in 2019, the bottom of the Gaussian channel was retested before breaking through the median. Ditto 2015. Even the green MA was always retested after yellow MA crossoever which is ~$21k.
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...2023-Year-From-Hell/

> > "Now or never? BTC $24,944 igniter."
>
> "dump pattern"


@goodblackcat, I upvoted your other comment: www.tradingview.com/...2023-Year-From-Hell/

Yeah looks like the pullback scenario will play out starting at end of the week? If so might need to retest lower than $21.1k? Maybe ~$20k.
Comment:
I'm buying this dip. This appears to be the BU/SOS phase of a textbook Wycoff accumulation (school.stockcha...ts.com/doku.php?id=market_...) pattern (click link to see accumulation and distribution charts). About to enter Phase E with a rocket launch to $30k? Other possibility is that the SOS/BU has turned into a smaller Wycoff distribution with UT completed but a possible higher high UTAD incoming before a further pullback into the $20 - 21k region (to form the right shoulder of a bullish, inverse H&S). Either way it makes sense to dollar cost average into some here below $24k. Not likely that price is headed back below $19.5k until 2024 and after a significant rally sometime before July.

Comment:
Even the uber bearish Ron Walker who has been bearish during the entire ~50% rise off the bottom (back when I correctly identified a Wycoff accumulation and told everyone to buy back in below $16k), thinks Bitcoin could make a higher high.

Fucking retard keeps boasting (SO SICK OF HIM BOASTING FOR 40 MINS, CAN NOT GET DIRECT TO THE POINT SUCCINCTLY) about calling the top (well yeah I sold $66k also!) and refuses to admit he totally fucked up calling the bottom and is still calling for $9k. And he wonders why nobody wants to donate to his Paypal.

youtu.be/Z5ESFuN5Ijc?t=904
(click for the chart of his moonboy oscillator)
Comment:
S&P wants to bounce possibly to 4300. Both BTC and S&P now have bullish RSI divergences on the daily. Nasdaq is still within a broadening wedge pattern, which is bullish for now. Also both have harmonic bottoming patterns projecting for massive rallies ongoing. Ron Walker is drinking too much Koolaid. Finally he admits there could be another bounce. Again I do agree there could be one final pullback to $20 - 21k for Bitcoin in March or April. But there's also a risk of exploding to $30k because Bitcoin is doing the same catching up to gold it did in 2019 after the Chinese New Year and Hong Kong is opening Bitcoin buying to all Chinese suddenly & massive stimulus being poured into Bitcoin.

youtu.be/1iXJPB0vHlI
(Stock Market CRASH: S&P 500 Bounces Off 4 Trendlines & The 50 Day Moving Average - Bounce Likely | Ron Walker)


Comment:
There's no doubt (even Ron Walker admits it) that there will be huge rally incoming very soon in 2023. There only question is whether there will be a slight pullback first. Ron Walker is delusional call for lower lows.

youtu.be/_HkVXb6lh-M
(Bitcoin MOTHER OF ALL SIGNALS Prints For ONLY 5th Time Ever | Crypto Crew U.)
Comment:
My comment:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=RR6SzgYY...
(Top for Bitcoin if Bull Run & Bottom if Bear Market! | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

Correct, the Fed will surprise with 50 basis points in March, but this will only provide a pullback not a crash, because the market is pricing in the pause in May. Historically there is a final rally when the Fed pauses then the markets tank as they begin to pivot lower on interest rates. Lower low not until 2024. As I have been telling you since summer of 2021, that the 2019 to 2020 pattern would repeat. We are in a Wycoff accumulation now with the bottom behind us. Will rally up to at least $30k if not $57k, possibly with a retest of $21k in March. Then it will roll-over with the recession in 2024 and make a lower low at your red trend line. Yes your $9k is coming but not until after an epic 2023 rally.
Comment:
Comment:
youtu.be/8ZqJZ7UzRiE?t=357
(click for the chart)

GoT are you blind? The stock market kept rising until the unemployment rate started to rise in several instances, even after a significant correction before the final leg up. You were mentioning this months ago. Why suddenly you change your message and are all worried about the stock market crashing which will not happen until the Fed begins to ease!
Comment:
I sold the BTC I had purchased the prior day at no loss right after the PCE inflation report came out hot, bcz I observed the S&P breaking down through support. But the support has held on a wick and BTC came down to the stronger support level, so I am reloading for another final push up before the major correction. Bullish daily or 4-hourly RSI divergence. BTC could push down to ~$22.5k for better divergence.





Comment:
Very likely Bitcoin is going to have a deeper correction, before rallying to $30+k. Yet I think likely one more attempt to break above $25k will occur first.

youtu.be/CQtBpdYIbdA
(Bitcoin WORST CASE SCENARIO | Crypto Crew U.)
Comment:
Get your cash positioned and ready to buy in March. A correction is incoming.

My comment:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQtBpdYI...

Steve given the double top and double bottom mirroring, why not a mirroring in terms of this incoming correction to bottom at the first of the double bottom, thus forming a massively bullish, inverse H&S pattern? This would also keep Bitcoin in its Wycoff accumulation pattern with the correction being the LPS before the Phase 2 parabolic rocket. There is a small Wycoff distribution ongoing now, so perhaps one final stab at $25k, then the pullback to ~17.5 to $20k.
Comment:
My comment:

youtu.be/iRsCffkOT6Y?t=164
(Bitcoin FIRST SINCE 2019! Get Ready | Crypto Crew U.)

2:43 Incorrect. This deceleration of Bitcoin is an omen that the price will crash to below $10k in 2024, before the next higher-high bull run resumes. And the non-legacy (aka "official") protocol Bitcoin (actually the 2017 soft-fork impostor) might NEVER make another new ATH after the looming anyone can spend Nash equilibrium restoration event "attack." The legacy protocol will ATH in 2025/2026 but most hodlers including you will be fleeced because you ostensibly did not heed my email warnings to you last year.
Comment:
Click for screen captures...

{ Album }
Posted: twitter.com/shelbyhm.../1629298837134225409

youtu.be/iRsCffkOT6Y?t=164

2:43 deceleration of ₿ is a crash omen below $10k in 2024…non-legacy (aka “official”) protocol ₿ (…the 2017 soft-fork impostor) might NEVER make…new ATH…looming ANYONECANSPEND Nash equilibrium restoration event “attack…”

archive.is/6vZMN
Comment:
9 minutes into Ron's latest, I was nodding my head and about to send you a kudos for being professional and respectful. Think I could eventually support your channel, if you can continue that professionalism. And then you just couldn't stop yourself from ridiculing others "Koolaid" etc..

You seriously need to go to remedial class in how to interact with the public. Nobody likes a boastful person. We all know the markets run on greater fool theory. Stop using it to boast about yourself!!!!!!!!

YOU SUCK RON. You do some decent analysis but your enunciation needs some serious remedial education.

youtu.be/DItiMbn9bAE
Comment:
Excellent video. FX Evolution has also been pointing out that March is typically down for markets. Crypto Crew U. also pointed out that a possible correction into late March before the resumption. April should close green, thus another rally up. He's also agreeing with my extrapolated target of June from FX Evolution for the top of this 2023 rally.

youtu.be/sZKSrDDB8y0
(#BITCOIN: DUMPS!!! What does SEASONALITY tell us??? | Kevin Svenson Crypto)
Comment:
My comment:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGQZE2-D...
(Warning: This Bitcoin Chart is Pointing to TWO New Targets (good and bad news))

@Alessio Rastani you have several mistakes. I am very familiar with Steve Courtney's 5.3 factor model. First that would be the high in 2025, not 2023. Just look at the high in 2019, which corresponds to 2023. Secondly the low will be in 2024 with a lower low. In 2020, the flash crash was not a lower, but it will be lower in 2024. The 2017 NY agreement impostor Bitcoin will NEVER make another higher all-time high. Mark my word.
Comment:
I sold. I think this will come down at least to next lower purple trend line before any significant bounce.

Comment:
I don't have time to clean up this chart right now. I just want to focus on the cyan trend line that marked the top in 2019. It's indicating ~$30 - 36k for the top of this summer 2023 bull trap. Note the harmonic projection to below $0 in 2024 (it ends down off the bottom of the chart).

Comment:
Bitcoin is headed to the $30 - $35k no later than June. Any higher low must be bought. Ron Walker is fucking delusional calling for lower-lows on Bitcoin. He missed the 50% bull run off the bottom. And he is probably going to miss the move to $30+k also.

youtu.be/-qPYPsu-VLc
(The Macro Case For Bitcoin)
Comment:
Excellent. Validates my recent points about what I expect for Bitcoin.

youtu.be/jhNtMTobm_c
( #Bitcoin's Price @ 4th Halving = ??? | Kevin Svenson Crypto)
Comment:
My comment:

youtu.be/uA2-FtSJ8p8
(Start of 60% bitcoin crash in March of 2023! | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

1:49 price is headed up to above $30k at the intersection of your two fib circles, after a higher low correction. You will be REKTD.
Comment:
Btw, I repurchased 0.5 BTC expecting another ~10% bounce which I will sell. I might buy up to 1 BTC if it drops to ~$22.6k again.

After the bounce, I expect a sharp decline into March which I will buy hand & fist with all my sidelined cash.

Expecting a rally into June ~$30 - 35k.

I will sell that June peak and wait for a significant market drop. Then I will buy gold and hold until the crash I expect in Q1 or Q2 2024. I will sell the gold and buy Bitcoin ~$10k in 2024 and hodl for $60+k in 2025.
Comment:
My comment:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUZ4XUDT...
(This is the 4th Time in Stock Market History We See This. | A Massive False Breakout. | Game of Trades)

GoT you're wrong and I will tell you exactly what is different this time from those prior three instances 1974, 2001, and 2008. Specifically there is a bullish Shark harmonic bottom that formed this time pointing up to as high as 4800. Now it is possible for the price to come down to 3500 and form a second bullish Shark harmonic bottom pointing up as low as 4650. Either way, the egregious crash you are currently calling for is not going to happen. You had shown us in 2022 that markets typically turn bullish as the Fed pauses and then crash as the Fed begins to cut. There will be some choppiness in March (and potentially April), then the rally will continue to a peak by June based on the timing I worked out from FX Evolution's recent videos. Also Bitcoin had a Wycoff bottom, likely currently in Phase D. Or in Phase B with a final wick lower low incoming if S&P makes lower low. But indications are higher lows only incoming.
Comment:
Absolutely no way that Bitcoin is going to an egregiously lower low in 2023— will make those crash lows in 2024 after a significant rally in 2023. Ron Walker, OPTICALARTdotCOM and Game of Trades are smoking crack.

youtu.be/h0rImQwhH5g
(Bitcoin It Finally Happened | Eric Krown Crypto)
Comment:
Here's what I am referring to about Bitcoin undergoing a Wycoff accumulation bottom.

youtu.be/sGio6NdcVEQ
(Smart Money is Fooling Retail Bitcoin Investors, Again. | Beware of USD Pressure, Wyckoff Analysis | Jason Pizzino)

Another indicator that Bitcoin has either bottomed or will approximately double-bottom.

youtu.be/ytOWxEvlReU
(Warning: EVERYONE IS WRONG About Bitcoin Right Now | Crypto Crew U.)
Comment:

Bitcoin has dropped into the top of my buy zone. Probably bounce here. Might come down some more, but I doubt below ~$19.8k.


Apology this next chart has collected too many annotations. Focus only on the cyan overhead resistance lines and the cyan measured projection of the current potential inverse H&S. Take profit targets are $31.9, $34.5k and a wick to ~$38.5k. Expecting a repeat of 2019, with a summer rally that fizzles out and eventually rolls over down to ~$9 - 10k in 2024.

Comment:
Let's not forget that ETH has a bullish BAT harmonic pattern projecting to ~$3250. Looks like ETH wants to back test ~$1500 with the lowest ~$1400 but I doubt below ~$1470 if that.


ETH/BTC broke up out of a small bullish declining wedge and looks headed up to 0.083 - 0.09. Which thus correlates ~$3250 with the highs I expect for Bitcoin. Should be buying some ETH on this decline. ETH has some upgrade coming in about a month.

Comment:
Remember what I wrote on Jan 24:

www.tradingview.com/...-Picture-Supplement/

The BAT harmonic is projecting to 3200 perhaps in April or May. If BTC tops ~$25k with a retest of ~$19.6k, ETH should pullback from ~$1800 to ~$1400. Else if BTC goes parabolic to ~$28k, then ETH to ~$2000 with a pullback below $17k.
Comment:
Meet Kevin makes a compelling argument that it's unlikely that inflation is about to skyrocket again. Thus the Fed is almost done raising rates and may not even go 50 basis points in March. Likely some fear around the 10th and 14th and possibly even the Fed meeting on the 22nd. Choppiness is mostly due to fear. While the smart money has been buying this pullback.

youtu.be/vOOjVose_FA
(The Hell that's Coming | Punishing Fed.)

Ron Walker's ego has overruled his ability to think clearly. Boasting that he called every top and bottom when in fact he failed to call this recent bottom missing out on a 50% gain for Bitcoin. And still expecting Bitcoin to crash to $8k soon. Anyone listening to him is going to miss the entire summer rally.

youtu.be/a06IA1fdHmw
(Bitcoin May Rally To 27K Before A Bigger BTC CRASH Happens With The Fed Or Next Inflation Reports)
Comment:
FX Evolution points out that risk on has been dominating this selloff, indicating that the bullishness has not subsided yet. Institutions piled on this pullback. He mentions that if stagflation is trapping the Fed, expect gold to fly later in 2023, which is exactly what I have been expecting.

youtu.be/JbKMJkzWOJU
(Wall Street Are About To Set The TRAP?)
Comment:
FreeMoneyCrypto FreeMoneyCrypto, {3/3/23 3:12 AM}
last cycle it was Tone Vay's friend from Wall Street the late Tyler Jenks calling for ridiculous lows like 1k. now theres a few of them. Gareth Solodoom, Ron Walker and others.

Munjeviti Jurić, {3/3/23 4:25 AM}
I belieive we bottomed in stocks and yields yesterday...metals on 28th..bitcoin is close to bottom maybe 20-21k !.. melt up starting.. new highs in parabolic fashion..buy now or never
Reminder me later to not sell and to wait for 10y at 2%!!!

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, {3/3/23 5:17 AM}
Also OPTICALARTdotCOM and now suprisingly Game of Trades flip-flopped from his prior excellent reasoning that the final bullish move is as the market prices in the Fed's pause. Those guys will end up correct in 2024, but after entirely missing this summer's rally.

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, {3/3/23 5:20 AM}
I will make sure you sell in May/June at the top and not wait for rates to start coming down, which always corresponds to the recessionary crash.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMH0zXJI...
(bitcoin price prediction? | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

@OPTICALARTdotCOM that's wise you flipped to long. Bitcoin is in the Phase D of a Wycoff accumulation about to go parabolic to $30+k after this pullback. After this summer rally, markets will decline to sideways as they did in 2019, and then crash into 2024 as the Fed breaks the economy by holding rates too high for too long. I will sell Bitcoin in June, wait for a pullback and then buy gold. Gold goes crazy in stagflation as it did in late 2019. Bitcoin is currently catching up to gold as it did into summer 2019. The 2019 to 2020 pattern is repeating as I predicted it would in summer 2021 when I also predicted Bitcoin would decline to test between $13.5 to $20k. Your $9k is coming but not until 2024. Don't get REKTD. Look at that Shark harmonic bottom on S&P projecting up to ~4800. And the Bat harmonic bottom on ETH projecting up to $3250. Come on man, the markets always rally as they price in the Fed's looming pause. This FUD about inflation returning is a buying opportunity for this summer rally.
Comment:
youtu.be/b_T5P5LF3o8
(Bitcoin The Low Is In | Eric Krown Crypto)
Comment:
I don't like the recent price action on Bitcoi. I sold. Will just wait for the pullback. I will forsake any bounce that may or might not occur before the pullback.
Comment:
My comment:

youtu.be/Ow4D8FUA2cU
(This Warned the SP500 Bull Traps in 2008 and 2001 | Investors are Wrong About The Economic Recovery | Game of Trades)

Problem with using a bottom in unemployment as a timing indicator, is that the stock market peaked well before unemployment bottomed, unlike the prior cases. COVID messed up the supply chains sending inflation up at the same time that consumers were flush with cash. Thus risk on took a big hit early than it would have otherwise if an organic situation. Thus risk on likely to catch up with unemployment bottoming and form a second peak perhaps a lower-high, but higher than the current bounce level as the Fed signals a pause will be coming.
Comment:
Nostradamus predicted last October 2022.

> Natural Gas has a Shark pattern projection to below $3:
>
>

Nailed that one.
Comment:
I do think there will be a bounce this week to $23.2k. From there it could possibly try again for $25k. There's hidden bullish divergence compared to Feb 10-13. And this accumulation looks ditto of Feb 10-13.


Eric Krown Crypto thinks so also: