Bitcoin bottom to be or not to be? for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by shelby3

Refer to my update comment today on my prior idea (linked below) for the discussion of Crypto Crew University’s confliction about whether Bitcoin will rally ~350% from here or decline ~45% from here. You might want to read all my updates on my prior idea to follow my progression of analysis over the past days. Specially find the update that includes the sentences, “He’s not sure which outcome, and the proportional time for breakout to upside would be 266 days (only 151 days so far), thus October. But remember his other video computed the bottom should be by 3rd or 4th week of June. What if bottom June rally into August but don’t breakout on monthly stochastic RSI until October?”

So the question is whether Bitcoin up or down some more?

Well I had this chart laying around which I had diagrammed last year. And you can see how remarkably accurate it has been since Bitcoin’s inception.

So if the current low was the bottom then it is projecting to a reasonable new ATH later this year or more realistically Q1 or April 2023. Here is a copy of that chart in static form:

Whereas if the price were to decline to ~$17k over next months to form the lower bottom, the projection for the upside price would be ridiculously too high (as shown on the chart below) for the final bull trap rally (Elliot Wave #5) before the massive recession excepted to start by summer 2023. Thus the posited crashing to lower lows scenario in 2022 seems implausible. Crypto Crew University had also recently explained that if 2022 closes below $29k, that would be the first Monthly Engulfing Candle in Bitcoin’s entire history which would be very dire, perhaps indicating Bitcoin had topped forever. Thus I think the following scenario is not plausible and the above scenario is the correct one.

Comment:

Even if I proposed a $22k bottom by June 20, I still get $320k at the lowest price for the top if top in April 2023. So even a decline to $22k seems implausible. No way the Fed it pumping Bitcoin to $320k by April 2023.

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I wrote on my Telegram while linking to this idea as follows…

I think I found the proof that this is the Bitcoin bottom. Absolute proof!!!!! Can I get some likes guys? Hover your mouse over the date.

I really worked my butt off analyzing this posited bottom.

And thus now we have a projection for the new ATH and the timing. Probably Q1 2023 and above $100k.

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Also I want everyone to take notice that when the weekly RSI is as low as it is, it almost always precedes a significant rally.

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I highly suggest catching up on Ron Walker’s YT channel. He has been explaining technically why it’s highly likely to get a final bull trap rally to new ATHs starting this month of June 2022. Game of Trades has also been making these arguments.

The producer inflation came in lower in May unlike today’s CPI release for May. And the housing market is starting to cool significantly, as well major retailers have too much inventory. Inflation will likely start to moderate before the November congressional elections in the U.S.. Today seems to be maximum fear day.

Likely to get an explosive rally to ~$38k coming out of this bottom. Perhaps to as high as $50k by August. Then likely backtest in September. Maybe October the BTC price moves high enough to trigger Crypto Crew University’s signals to bullish. But the time to buy probably down here.

The BTC price could decline as low as the current low $25.5k and the theme of this idea would still be in play. But I am thinking BTC will only decline to at most just under $28k. You can read my reasoning in my update comments on my prior idea. My prior idea is linked below.

Comment:

Employing this same methodology the ~$50k target of the initial rally could be hit in August as posited.

The ~$38k target could be hit as soon as June 24, which agrees with Eric Kown Crypto’s model for the next major move, which I discussed in the update comments on my prior idea.

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Interestingly in 2018 Bitcoin bottomed at 0.382 Fib but a log-scaled Fib. But in 2022 Bitcoin appears to be bottoming in the golden pocket Fib but on a non-log scaling. Notice also that Bitcoin has become much more correlated with the stock markets since maturing into non-log scaling for retracements. This appears to be a sign that Bitcoin is maturing and slowing down.

However note if the 2023–24 crash is down as low as diagrammed, then that would require a log-scaled Fib retracement again. Interesting. So will the posited ANYONECANSPEND attack demarcate when legacy Bitcoin detaches from the traditional markets again and begins its assault on $1 million per BTC?

Remember you have to store your BTC in addresses that begin with 1 (not 3 nor bc1) if you want to retain your legacy BTC and not implicitly donate it to the miners if the posited attack comes to fruition. I explained in detail the economics and game theory reasoning for this posited attack in my Gist document which I linked in one of my prior ideas.

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VIX may have topped.

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A lot of fear in the markets which is what we want to see at a late-cycle bottom, but as this article points out if stock market will be down more 20% such as 30% then it will be a bear market but it’s too soon in the tightening cycle to go into a full-fledged recession. The recession is likely to start in Q2 2023.

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Amazon did a stock split which corresponded to a huge rally. Tesla is next:

Traders also see this risk-off correction is running out of steam. Once the market flips, then everyone will move to the other side of the ship and back to risk-on.

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Another example today was maximum fear day. No way the Fed will raise 75 basis points at one meeting. The PCE producer inflation data was already moderating in May. And more signs of inflation moderation in June. Next CPI report next month will be lower.

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Global economy is reopening post-COVID:

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Interesting chart at the linked. Markets are becoming more volatile because of the Fed going crazy and the diabolical scams that the global elite have been subjecting to world to such as the cerveza sickness hoax.

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If Bitcoin tops ~$125 – 130k in April 2023 which would be 4.25 – 4.5 current price, ETH is projecting to rise ~5 – 9 times from current price. So at most roughly 2 times leverage over BTC. Could be as low as parity with Bitcoin though in worst case.

Whereas ADA appears to have up to 3 – 3.5 times leverage on Bitcoin. Could be as low as 2 times leverage in worst case. So ADA might rise in price by 12 – 15 times.

DOGE has 5 – 6 times potential leverage on BTC, but note DOGE can disappoint for a long time until finally it catapults at the end. This means DOGE could rise 20 – 25 times in price.

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Correlate my prior BLX chart together with this one. Not going down to the 200 DMA yet. Bitcoin has bottomed.

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More complete version of the chart for this idea.

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Finally got the miner capitulation signal. Note the corresponding case in late 2020 (when the bottom also did not come down to the 200 DMA), note the ‘Buy’ signal came very quickly after the start of the miner capitulation and price rose some the following week. And note the extreme decline currently more similar to March 2020, where the price immediately started rising the following week!

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Crude oil has a massive divergence. Likely peaked and heading down soon.

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Possibility that the May bottom was not the 5th wave and that a 5th wave underway now to undercut to a lower low.

To reiterate what I wrote previously, I would not expect this to take Bitcoin down to lower lows than $25.5k. I think a wick down to $27.6 – 28k is a possibility, perhaps even likely since we need it to form bullish divergence on the daily.

Comment:

More downside on the altcoins underway. I was anticipating we might get lower prices on Saturday before perhaps rallying to close the week on Sunday.

ETH could be headed down to $1475

AVAX could be headed down as low as $16 (remember I sold $25 and reminded everyone here again yesterday to sell above $23)

ADA may come down to $0.535

All those prices are consistent with BTC declining to $27.6 – 28k as I wrote yesterday. Which I am saying is necessary to form a bullish RSI divergence on the daily.

I posit that crypto is telegraphing a further slight move down on markets on open Monday then they may rally to fill that Friday open gap before coming back down one more time at Triple Witching options expiry next Friday. Whether that will be the #c wave so lower low or whether Friday was the #c wave is not certain. Or if this is wave#5 of correction, then lower low Friday.

Comment:

Bitcoin could come down as low as $26.7k if not this weekend or Monday, then maybe at option expiry next Friday. That could give a nice projection W pattern reversal back up to the overhead support for the bullish declining wedge or channel. As long as close above the May 22 low (which is $25.5k on CME, Kraken, Bitstamp) then should form a daily hidden, bullish RSi divergence with a higher low on price and a lower low on the daily RSI. The daily RSI is not low enough yet, so it’s near certain the BTC price needs to be lower to form the bottom, but not lower than $25.5k and probably not lower than $26.7k.

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Another version of the ETH chart corraborating a likely drop to $1475.

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My expectation for the VIX. The weekly RSI is elevated. Need to bring that RSI back down by 2023, then the recession and market crashes begin Q2 2023 running until as late as Q4 2024 to form an egregiously low bottom. Mother of all crashes perhaps the worst since the 1929.

Comment:

There’s an inconsistency in this published idea.

The less dubious, greatest, duration, proportional timing I can measure places the top in February or latest first week of March:

Problem is I can’t an ellipse that will match that timing:

I can find a more dubious timing measure that places top end of March:

Which matches the ellipse if not drawn to the wick low:

Yet there’s a troubling measurement placing top Dec 7:

I can only find an ellipse match if $14 – 17k by end of June:

If bottomed end of 1st week of July, then $22k at the 200 WMA:

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Maybe the VIX could breakout higher than Friday’s peak before the bottom?

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I can diagram another variant of the dubious measurement placing top $186k on Apr 1, for which I can find an ellipse match. This is not an exact science.

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Note the ellipses didn’t predict the Feb 2020 top exactly.

But did predict the March 2020 crash bottom exactly!

With a 6.382 or 3.236 Fib level instead of 5.236 it predicted the Feb 2020 top exactly.

So what if BTC comes down to fill that $24.6k CME gap by June 24 repeating the double bottom from late December 2019 with the requisite, proportionally longer duration between double bottoms:

Then repeating the 3.236 Fib ellipse from 2019–20, hits exactly the $120k target top for Dec 7:

CONCLUSION: lower low still plausible but below $20k unlikely.

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If BTC comes down to the log-scaled 0.382 Fib at $23.1k by June 20, everything makes more sense. Then BTC has not shifted from log to non-log scaled Fib retracements. And it will precisely match the 0.382 Fib retracement from the 2018 top.

EDIT: and so that is why BTC can come down to the 200 WMA now because this is completing wave #4, whereas in Dec2019 that was only completing the #a of the a-b-c of wave #2.

Comment:

So now the ANYONECANSPEND donations attack timing might be imminent? How else can that pattern repeat? The posited egregious crash from Dec to February will likely be before the full scale recession crash to come later in 2023. And how would BTC rally back up during a recession? Because legacy Bitcoin will rise and the impostor Bitcoin Core (which everyone erroneously thinks is the official Bitcoin) will die. Remember if you don’t hodl in addresses that begin with 1 (not 3 nor bc1) then you do not hodl Bitcoin, you hodl some impostor scam coin from Blockstream not Satoshi’s protocol which will be restored as I explained in detail in my Gist document.

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I think we will get another crypto bull market starting Q1 2025 and running through 2026.

The proof-of-work altcoins will destroyed by miner attacks. The exchanges will be more regulated by the FATF, e.g. there will be travel rule where your coins are tracked from exchange to wallet to exchange. If you use decentralized exchanges (DEX) and/or anonymity features your coins can become tainted and not accepted by centralized exchanges.

Also as the WW3 develops there will likely be capital controls to enforce sanctions against the enemy.

Our overlords might leverage the incoming recession (2023 – 2024) to launch their diabolical 666 central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) by offering Universal Basic Income (UBI) via the national CBDC. These will scale up over the years.

But it’s not clear what ponzi features altcoins will be able to FOMO the public into in the future? DeFi basically doesn’t make any sense as Luna recently demonstrated when you can’t print money out-of-thin-air like the Fed can to prop up the unsustainability of leverage and compounding when it crashes.

Have any utility tokens really panned out? Brave’s browser token?

Anonymity could be important for privacy, but needs to be compatible with reporting to authorities because an underground economy isn’t likely going to fly.

My idea for an altcoin remains… {rest of my Telegram post is redacted from public view}

Comment:

Taking a harsher and more critical eye to the Bitcoin Dominance chart, BTC might be set to outperform until BTC.D hits perhaps 50 – 52%.

After that altcoins may outperform into the coming, posited crypto top (perhaps December) but probably only back to backtest support at 42 – 43%. Thus the outperformance of altcoins to be less than half of what it was from January to May 2021. Thus I should scale back my projections on the altcoins.

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If $1475 is not the bottom for ETH which I doubt although might get a bounce from here, looks like ETH/BTC is going to drop to the 0.382 log Fib level (0.0474) thus probably headed down to $1100 – $1250 if BTC is headed down to $23 – $26k. I have ETH only outperforming BTC by 60% (1.6 times) from the bottom to the posited December top.

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Possible that ETH/BTC bottomed here if use non-log scaled Fib retracements. In which case ETH would only decline to ~$1225 – 1375.

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ADA is projecting down to $0.40 – 47 with an intermediate level $0.43. The $0.525 level may hold but I doubt it.

ADA/BTC won’t make a lower low because at the low the $0.40 – 47 price range would correspond to $26.3 – 30.9k for BTC. At $0.40 and $23.1k, that would be 0.0000175.

I think ADA will outperform BTC by 3 – 3.5 times after it bottoms, but it’s possible to be only 2.2 – 2.5.

After it bottoms, ADA should be a decent method to have leverage on BTC without a margin or leverage trading account.

Comment:

BTC has bullish RSI divergence on 4 hourly but looks very precarious doubt that $28.1k will hold, although it might hold for a bounce. Next would be to wick down below $28k, but with daily RSI remaining above the level on May 26, which would be bullish RSI divergence on the daily. But that also look precarious.

Most likely is wick down below the prior low $25.5k, with the RSI remaining above the 25.5 level it was on May 12. That would be strong bullish RSI divergence on the daily. BTC could probably wick down to $23.1 – 24.6k with the RSI above 25.5.

There’s already hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the weekly for Bitcoin with the RSI below the level it was on the March 2020 crash but obviously the price is far above that $3.9k crash level. Because of the weekly bullish divergence, Bitcoin could bottom at any price but I also want a bullish divergence on the daily as aforementioned.

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Note once BTC significantly breaches below $28k, then the possibility of bottoming say $26.6k is unlikely because aforementioned bullish RSI divergence with the May 26 wick low would be lost. So then the price would need to breach $25.5k. If $25.5k is breached to the downside, then might as well fill the CME gap at $24.5k and backfill to the 0.382 log Fib at $23.1k.

There’s also already hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the monthly chart:

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Stock markets are threatening to plummet to their 200 WMA per the theory that corrective wave #5 (from the top) has not completed yet as discussed on Ron Walker’s YT channel.

The S&P has a horizontal support ~3715 which would roughly correspond to BTC dropping to fill its CME gap $24.6k. A drop in S&P to 200 WMA corresponds to BTC also dropping to its 200 WMA just below $22k.

Nasdaq has no intermediate horizontal support and is portending a drop around its 200 WMA with BTC ranging from $21 – 23.1k for a bottom.

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Here are the Elliot Wave (EW) counts for a five count correction that brings the S&P down to its 200 WMA this month for the bottom.

And for the Nasdaq with the posited, minor 5 wave corrective EW structure for posited wave #5 underway already:

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Ron Walker says likely to get the bottom on June 20 after the options expiry.

BTC can go down to the 200 WMA (or even lower) on June 20 and still fulfill the Dec. 7 top target for the posited Fib ellipse.

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Ron Walker’s EW counts can’t be correct because he has wave (v) #5 longer than wave (iii) #3.

Yet I had my wave counts wrong because I forgot to put the major A-B-C correction. So here is my corrected chart. But this current move down underway must be wave #5, there is no other option. Thus it must make a lower low.

Comment:

Markets top 6 – 12 months after unemployment bottoms. Unemployment may have bottomed over this summer. That is one of the reasons probably have a rally to another ATH by the end of this year. Also looks like oil and the dollar have nearly topped out for now. And the consumer is running out of savings and prices are too high so demand destruction incoming while retail inventories are too high. So inflation is likely peaking for next months into the November mid-term congressional elections in the U.S..

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Ah Ron Walker mentions that if wave #5 completed already then it would be an extended wave #5, so he is aware that his wave #5 is longer than wave #3. I think extended wave #5 are rare?

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Ron Walker thinks Bitcoin will drop to the “low $20,000s” thus $21 – 23k seems to fit his expectation. He has flipped his Bitcoin trade from long to short.

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I had mentioned previously that my reaction to Eric Krown Crypto’s point that BTC is dropping below the 1.272 log Fib extension, is before it already went from 1.272 to 1.618 top and now BTC is correcting likely to 0.382 ($21.3k) same as for 2018 as shown on my diagrammed BLX chart. Thus BTC is combining a crypto winter correction with a mid-cycle wave #4 correction, which means the wave #5 will probably employ Fib extension as diagrammed between the 1.414 ($114k) to 1.618 ($145k). I can actually draw the upper trendline of my megaphone pattern to reach $145k by Dec 7.

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Note I had 0.382 log Fib correction target as $23.1k if measure from March 2020 bottom, else $21.3k if measure from the 2018 bottom. Either of those could end up being the bottom. But if the stock markets are going to make a final capitulation crash to their 200 WMA on Monday, June 20 after the Triple Witching options expiry on Friday, June 17, then BTC is likely to hit its 200 WMA at $22.3k or slightly lower on a wick.

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Eric Krown Crypto has a model (similar to Crypto Crew University’s) which can predict the downside crash. He doesn’t measure all the way to the wick low of the March 2020 crash, so it should be -43% not -39%. Given the distance between the percentage declines their pattern of becoming smaller, looks -38% is likely which would have Bitcoin bottoming in the low $21000s. Everything seems to be lining up with that value $21.3k 0.382 log Fib retracement.

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(c.f. the two charts)

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Eric Krown Crypto has been emphasizing the Accumulation / Distribution indicator for Bitcoin:

He thinks it could take months for it to come down to the targeted level.

Yet note the reason it hasn’t been moving down fast since it turned read is due to the way it’s calculated and the closes during the sideways price action since May. With a daily close near low say $5k below the daily high along with 50,000 volume then will hit the target. Or double the volume or closes near low $2.5k below high. Or some combination thereof. Problem is I don’t know what source he’s using for total volume. Coinmarketcap has Bitcoin’s daily volume over 1 million. The BLX chart has it averaging ~30k with May spike 160k.

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Typo: s/read/red/

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Ron Walker has predicted everything correctly since the top for Bitcoin. Now is short Bitcoin says it will drop to $21k

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Ron Walker has a channel The Crypto Trader dedicated to crypto with more frequent updates on crypto markets.

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I’m becoming concerned that ADA may drop to $0.32. I would wait and see until June 20 before purchasing altcoins.

ETH may drop to $960.

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Guys I hope you nibbled at the $23.4k level, which is the downtrend wedge line. I think we may get a bounce from that level $23.3k level which was the 0.382 log Fib retracement from the March 2020 low, that is after the S&P sells off today.

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I don’t think this is the final bottom, but looks like a bottom might be forming for today here.

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S&P coming down to at least the 150 WMA average today, so BTC apparently coming down to at least the 200 WMA (also the 0.382 log Fib retracement if from March 2020 low to top in 2021). Remember the 0.382 log Fib retracement target from the 2018 low is $21.4k.

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Daily bearish RSI divergences on 10Y and VIX. VIX hit top of range expected. Daily bullish RSI divergence for Bitcoin, S&P and Nasdaq.

This looks like a bottom for this week, then probably come back down to $21.4k on Monday June 20 for final bottom.

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This summary Cathy Wood’s call for a July rally is excellent:

Kevin agrees with Cathy and I do also. I had not agreed with her since the November top.

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This chart clearly shows that all U.S. mid-term election years typically have a mid-year decline of 20 – 40% then typically rally into the first two quarters of the following year significantly.

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Another chart visualizing the prior numerous chart:

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Chart showing average performance for all years ending with a 2 since 1952.

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Since have nearly hit the $21.4k 0.382 log Fib retracement (from 2018 low to November top), perhaps BTC will be making a lower low next week after a bounce to maybe $27k?

Next level of horizontal support is the 2017 ATH $19.7k and the more recent cluster around that level:

The $24.5k CME gap backfilled today, but there’s another CME gap $18.1k:

Maybe we get a bounce into Friday’s Triple Witching options expiry then another crash to lower lows over the next weekend and week of June 20?

Maybe copying the bottoming pattern for the S&P in 2009?

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The $21.4k 0.382 log Fib retracement has not held as support. And looks like it might be turning into overhead resistance.

The Celsius debacle and Binance stopping withdrawals is adding more fear, yet ADA is not making lower lows yet.

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Eric Krown Crypto’s video is very bullish on Bitcoin Dominance (thus bearish on altcoin leverage):

(Bitcoin DOMINANCE - What To Expect For Altcoin & BTC Pairings)

Not attempting to predict what happens after the posited incoming ATH by Dec 7. This BTC.D chart seems to possibly have a repeating pattern from end of 2018 to July 2019. In that case altcoins would only have slight leverage until September then BTC would dominate into the ATH:

ETH/BTC appears to only have 33% upside leverage, except note a bearish cross didn‘t occur as in 2018.

Assuming you purchased ADA/BTC at 0.000018 as I had suggested recently (or if it will dip one more time), then ~64% upside leverage. No where near the 100% – 350% I was previously hoping for.

Maybe ADA to $1.24 and BTC to $44k by Aug/Sep.

Comment:

Bitcoin is dancing around between the two green 0.382 log Fib (upper measured from March 2020 low and lower from the 2018 low) and the blue 200 WMA.

Uncertain whether this is slowing the decline down enough to form a bottom or whether this is just a temporary pause before giving way to lower lows.

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Got another inverse H&S reversal pattern. This one is large than the prior one. Doesn’t guarantee not going lower after its bullish move completes.

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Actually the third such pattern and they’re monotonically larger.

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Maybe going down to $19.7k in next several hours.

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There’s a larger, bullish inverse H&S pattern forming. Up from here (or after one more pullback to $22k), or back back to form a deep Head ~$19.7k? My guess is we’re already hit the bottom for until options expiry on Friday. Or that at least there will be a rally to $24.7k before attempting a lower low. Watch for a breakout here of the diagrammed neckline.

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So this is what I’m expecting now. Might make one more move down first to $21.4k before breaking up out of neckline.

So this will just be retesting as overhead resistance the bottom of the channel the price fell out of. Thus expecting price to come back down again after that.

S&P, Nasdaq and BTC are all likely headed to much lower lows after a bounce.

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Based on the measured move of the S&P and Nasdaq dropping to their 200 WMA after this posited incoming bounce, I am expecting Bitcoin to fill that $18.4k CME gap! Be prepared to sell on this posited incoming bounce and wait for lower lows.

Comment:

So it appears I may have been correct since I first identified this megaphone pattern in summer 2021, even before the November top. Which is why I was prepared to sell that top. Bitcoin is in some sort of Expanded Flat:

What is not clear is if there will be a panic selling thrust down to ~$13k. Both the a-b-c projection and the Terminal Elliot Wave condition of wave #2 retracing more than 0.618 of wave #1 (on a wick only though) and the proportion projection of wicks below the megaphone (compared to March 2020) all point to a $13k wick low. Yet the fractal structure seems to imply that wick low below the megaphone will not be until after the posited nosebleed rally to ~$110 – 130k.

So it’s nearly impossible to target precisely the exact bottom. If purchase for example at the back fill of the $18.4k CME gap (assuming price falls that far) a wick low could possible take the USD price of your hodlings down -30%. Will panic selling take Bitcoin down that much? Or will $17 – 20k hold for the bottom?

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One plausible outcome for this five wave correction:

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Wave #1-2 channel indicates ~$20k could have been the bottom. Note I have it $19k with monthly candle bodies:

But the 300 WMA also beckons which is currently $16.4k and will rise to ~$16.7k by June 24.

Comment:

I don’t expect you to listen (at double-speed) to these videos by Meet Kevin. He makes a good case that the Fed meeting tomorrow will cause more chaos to the downside, either by being more dovish than expected, possibly leading to a bounce but then a crash after people realize they’re not being truthful and responsible, or immediately a crash because the Fed gives the market the bad news. It seems there have been bounces on Fed meetings because the market had priced in the bad news. Possibly the further downside crash comes before the Fed releases their report 2pm EST.

So what I am saying is that although there is a possibility of a bounce, there could be downside before or if not then definitely after. So either way it is very likely markets are headed for a lower low this week, over the weekend, or on Monday. Beware.

I could be wrong and all the downside is priced in already but I doubt it.

Comment:

The declining channels or wedges on the S&P and Nasdaq, seem to be pointing to a rally tomorrow, before the renewed crash, which would also match their 5 wave correction wave counts. As well what appears to maybe be a bull trap rally structure on BTC. I can’t rule out BTC coming down to make a double bottom overnight first.

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Likely to get a rally today after the Fed releases report at 2pm EST. Markets could continue to decline this morning (7:30am EST now) until then. Could come crashing back down next week though.

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This is playing out as diagrammed. Expect the final capitulation crash tomorrow or Monday:

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Might have a bullish, inverse H&S pattern forming here. Not certain yet:

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Two drives of bullish RSI divergence on the hourly. Also have bullish RSI divergence on the 30 minutes and lower time frames for the right shoulder. On higher time frames only one drive of bullish RSI divergence on 4 hourly. On the daily only have bullish MACD divergence and possibly RSI divergence if look back to January. The lack of clear bullish RSI divergence on the daily heading into the weekend is worrisome.

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Interesting potential pattern on the Nasdaq:

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Can rule out this scenario later today or over the weekend:

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Although altcoins have outperformed BTC slightly this week, beware going out of the gate here from the bottom and then again for the moonshot probably later this year as BTC is likely to outperform and altcoins are likely to disappoint as they did in run to $13.8k in 2019 and in Q4 of 2020. The purple rectangle may be repeating:

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I sold the $21.2k after buying $20.8k. Looks to me it is coming down to a lower low perhaps $19.4k.

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Another possibility is this and then we need to observe if have bearish divergence after a thrust up to $22k.

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Typo: s/Can rule out/Can not rule out/

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That posits a repeat of the following purple boxes:

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I think maybe this is going play out over the weekend and possibly with the low on Sunday or Monday, below the $18.1k CME gap.

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This expert trader agrees with my scenario. He is buying now for bounce then expects BTC to possibly make a lower low. He prefers the altcoins which are outperforming BTC right now:

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Crypto Crew University’s NVT indicator has flashed white when breaking above the key threshold. That signifies a mega crash. Has that mega crash already played out?

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Ron Walker thinks maybe 2 more trading days (thus Tuesday because Monday is a new leftist holiday ()in the U.S.) to read the bottom in the stock markets:

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Ron Walker thinks the S&P might come down to the 200 WMA (although I think it will be less drop than that because that would make posited wave #5 slightly longer percentage-wise than wave #3 but not nominally), thus my proportional computation has BTC coming down to fill below that $18.1k CME gap possibly $16 – $17k. I don’t think $13 – 14k is going to happen because proportionally wave #5 for S&P would be NOMINALLY longer than wave #3, although that’s not impossible. Realize once BTC drops below the prior ATH, panic selling, liquidations and margin calls will likely accelerate in a stampede crescendo.

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Ron Walker notes that BTC might make an inverse H&S instead. So this bottom could be over the weekend a BTC also has a 7 of 9 day countdown to a potential bottom.

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Munjeviti Jurić, {6/17/22 9:53 AM}

"Personally, with what I've experienced and witnessed over 40 years of trading (including the Crash of 87), if the market cannot rally from a deeply oversold condition and we have a bad close today, I would not want to be long over the weekend. Let's see how we close today."

(chart comparing 2008 and 2022)

Shelby Moore, {6/17/22 10:31 AM}
{In reply to Munjeviti Jurić}
That is very misleading. Most of that crash has already completed. They need to update the 2022 side. We are not in the final bear market crash of 2008. We are in the first correction before going to new ATHs.

I wrote yesterday it can not go that low because the NOMINAL wave #5 length would be longer than wave #3, which normally should not occur. Already wave C is too extended. We are near to a bottom.

We are in the corresponding purple rectangle stage to 2007. The mega crash of 2008 comes in 2023 and/or 2024, not now. You can clearly see that the current H&S pattern is not large enough to create the move to 1600 that we expect for the mega crash. The recession has not started yet. You are much too premature in your uber bearishness. You will end up not buying the bottom:

Comment:

{In reply to SunZoomSpark}
Exchanges can fail at any time, but I am doubting the exchanges will fail en masse until after the wave #5 peak expected to hopefully be a new ATH by December or Q1 2023.

Again the terminal EW condition (i.e. that wave #3 at the March 2020 low retraced more than 61.8% Fib of wave #1 from summer 2019) requires wave #4 (which we are in now) to bottom below the top of wave #1, thus below $13.9k. I have been saying this since summer 2021 and everyone thought I was nuts for saying BTC could decline back to $13 – 14k then make a new ATH before the cryptowinter is over.

That being said, note that on a weekly chart that the candle bodies did not close below the golden pocket (61.8 – 65%), thus may not go down to $13k but if it does it could be an intraday wick low as was March 2020.

Again I doubt very much the $9.8k CME gap will be filled on this wave #4, because we still to go back up to a new ATH for wave #5, so that would be too bearish and too much of a decline for bull market correction. That would be 30% below the top of wave #1. Instead it is more likely that if we do get the egregious wick down, that it will tease that the sky is falling but will top short of filling that lowest CME gap. We need to reserve that $9.8k CME gap for the egregious crash coming after wave #5 peak. Anything can happen, but I am playing the probabilities. I would not look a gift horse in the mouth and refuse to buy $13.9k because I am scared about a 5% chance of dropping to $9k.

Yeah I also use to bet at the horse race track at age 13 and I always won because I bet to show conservatively, evaluated the horses carefully and played the odds mathematically. Whereas my grandfather was doing it for the thrill and so he bet exacta and usually lost but sometimes won big but overall he lost on average but it was the cost of his entertainment.

Comment:

I mean before bull market is over and cryptowinter starts.

Comment:

Could get a short-term bounce here because bullish RSI divergences on the 1 hourly and 30 minutes, but 2 hourly and 4 hourly can have the RSI come down a lot more before bullish RSI divergence would be lost and those short-term bullish RSI divergences do not appear on the 2 hourly up. Also 4 hourly MACD is rolling over into the red possibly signaling more downside after a short-term bounce. There is no possibly bullish RSI divergence anymore on the daily.

Daily has also lost the appropriate time frame bullish MACD divergence (unless perhaps it rallied to close this day UTC), although there is a bullish MACD divergence if going back to summer 2021 but that seems aweful far to look back for a daily time frame. I will want to see what Ron Walker is saying about this. I might need to head out for clinic appointment first.

Comment:

Remember the $18.1k CME can't fill on weekends bcz CME is closed. So price needs to be below $18.1k when CME opens which is normally Sunday evening in USA but there's a market holiday Monday for U.S. markets.

Comment:

Got the short-term bounce I posited a few hours ago. But it came down and snagged the mid-$17k level I was looking for as a first possible bottom after filling the $18.1k CME gap (but CME is closed as I mentioned). Not sure if this bounce has more upside or already exhausted. That very likely was not the final bottom.

Comment:

IMPORTANT: watch on double-speed and skip the 1.5 minutes Intro. Tl;dr bottom not likely today.

Comment:

Could be forming a bullish inverse H&S projecting up to $21k before presumed resumed crashing. May be coming down now to form the right shoulder. This is pure short-term speculation. This would play out in a matter of several hours if so.

Comment:

This confirms our expectations. Listen on 1.5 speed:

Comment:

I wonder if Celsius is going to collapse now leading to massive panic liquidation event or if it will be saved by a bull market?

Comment:

Bitcoin perhaps range bound between 200 WMA (~$23k) and 300 WMA (~$16.6k) until the stocks bottom. As I anticipated Bitcoin is bouncing. Bullish RSI divergences on the 4 hourly and lower time frames. Might rally to the $23k level by Monday, June 20. U.S. stock markets and CME are closed on Monday for that new Juneteenth (Black Lives Matter) holiday in the U.S.. Bad omen!

No near-term divergence on the daily yet. Ron Walker (The Crypto Trader channel) is mentioning the need for the daily to come back down after a bounce to form a bullish divergence. Such as a wick intraday, lower low down to the 300 WMA on Tuesday, also to fill that $18.1k CME gap.

If S&P bottoms either 3550 (most likely), $16.6k would be the projected, proportional bottom although another measurement is $14.5k. If 3505, the 0.5 Fib retracement (~$15.8k) or $12k.

Comment:

Need a significant bull trap bounce here to flip everyone bullish before the anticipated slightly lower low for stocks on Tuesday triggers one final capitulation move down for Bitcoin.

It doesn‘t have to happen that way and the bottom could have been $17.6k. Thus I think it is silly to not be long on this bounce. I do not think BTC will make a lower low before creating some bullish trap. And don’t forget the $18.1k CME gap can’t fill until the earliest is Tuesday, June 21. Thus we need some bullish market action for BTC interim.

Also those expecting a further wipeout in the stock markets I think are going to see their expectations fail to be met. Likewise $13k Bitcoin is probably not going to happen — allow for the possibility that is could though in terms of any leveraged positions so don’t get a margin call if BTC drops to $12k.

We have yet to see the huge capitulation volume for Bitcoin though. Although volume has been declining since the summer 2021. A intradaily wick down threatening to drop BTC to $10k (but stopping perhaps $15.8 – $16.6k) might provide that volume spike and the daily bullish RSI divergence.

Comment:

This appears to be eventually a bearish pattern and should fall out the bottom of the posited, rising, broadening wedge. But should have at least 2 touches on the top of the posited wedge. I am thinking it might go up and tag the top of the wedge again. Also Bitcoin has broken out of the top of these supposed, bearish wedges before.

Comment:

Hidden, bearish RSI divergence developing on the 4 hourly. This bounce with the bullish RSI divergence is probably going to run out of steam $22 – 23k as I predicted. Eric Krown Crypto also stated that he thinks we need another or two more drives down for multiple bullish divergences on the 4 hourly before bottomed.

Daily has no bearish divergences but also no bullish divergence. Thus we need a lower low price with a higher low RSI on the daily. Price likely to come down to at least the 300 WMA $16.6k, but more likely the 0.5 log Fib retracement $15.8k or even $13.8k to fulfill the Elliot Wave terminal impulse invariant (with wave #2 having retraced more than Fib 61.8% of wave #1). Positing a bullish, inverse H&S will form.

Comment:

Ron Walker has the exact same expectation as I already wrote. A lower low ~$16.5k, then a higher low in July after significant rally, then up we go into August.

Comment:

Bearish H&S breaking down now? Projecting down to fill that $18.1k CME gap.

Comment:

Eric Krown Crypto provides solid reasoning for why after pullback into Friday probably not to make a lower low, a likely reaction rally starting next week:

CME chart implies BTC to back fill the gap $18.5k, then rally:

Interestingly that would be the left shoulder for a bullish, inverse H&S for spot price:

No bullish divergences on daily , whereas 3 drives of bullish divergence on 4 hourly currently and there was for the June, 2021 lowest low. Thus I posit that July will form on the daily a bullish divergence lower low price (and higher low RSI/MACD) at least for BTC perhaps $15.5 – 16.7k. Below $14k seems highly probable:

Comment:

Expecting S&P to back fill that gap 3695 before rally next week to fill the upper gap 3900 which proportionally projects BTC to $23.6k same as the posited CME projection after a decline back fill $18.5k CME gap, then after that bounce rolling over to make final capitulation low.

Comment:

Small purple horizontal could be neckline of bearish H&S or base of descending triangle. If later needs to come back up to make 2nd touch ~$21k before either breaking out to upside or breaking down to fulfill also posited H&S. Descending triangles in traditional markets are more often bearish, but Bitcoin likes to break out up out of them. So might just head up now to the $23.6k (CME and 0.382 log Fib from March 2020 low) or $25.6k (spot price projection of bullish inverse H&S or wedge breakout as diagrammed herein). Whether come down first to fill the ~$18.5k CME gap or not, the bull trap bounce is imminent over new few to several days. Very likely after that to come down and wick intraday lower low (at least on CME) as was the case in December 2018 because no bullish divergence yet on the daily.

Comment:

Need a bounce either before close of the week on Sunday, or comparing to summer 2021, then before end of next week

Comment:

Waiting to see if we break out here and invalidate the bearish H&S and descending triangle.

Comment:

My current S&P expectation with EW labeled. Uncertain whether breakout now to posited bull trap bounce or come back and fill gap first, to fulfill the smaller, bullish, inverted H&S. Armstrong says June must close above 3950 to have a shot of a new ATH in Q4:

Also expectations for Sept Fed Funds hike have moderated to 0.50 from 0.75 thus expectations turning slightly bullish:

Need a lower low price (higher low RSI) in July to form a bullish RSI divergence on daily (already have on 4 hourly) ditto Jan–Feb 2022. Fed minutes released Jan 6, may cause fear of 0.75 in Sept to heighten causing capitulation selloff? This would form a massive, bullish, inverted H&S projecting to the ATH. This provides for the expected correction scare in September for the right shoulder.

Comment:

Funding rates are mostly negative indicating bullish if market moves against them:

Comment:

My confidence is increasing that going to breakout. And may more or less follow the zigzag path I have diagrammed.

Comment:

May break down out of smaller bearish wedges first.

Comment:

The DeFi sector is turning into a contagion. Will it survive the summer? The 2023 – 2024 recession will destroy the altcoins.

Comment:

Gareth Soloway who predicted the $20k crash since the top, says BTC will bull trap bounce to ~$25k, then crash to $12k.

Full interview:

Another interview he’s not expecting a new ATH for many years from now (he will be correct after the bull trap bounce to a new ATH):

His chart:

Mine implicates a lower low $14.7k in July:

Comment:

Assuming a bounce to ~$25k, each of the prior two declines has been ~45 – 46%. Thus expecting a wick below the prior wave #1 high of $13.9k for the July bottom. This will entirely fulfill the terminal impulse Elliot Wave condition where wave #2 for March 2020 cerveza sickness dump retraced more than log Fib 68.1% of wave #1. This still allows wave #5 to make a new ATH but implies that the correction after wave #5 will be precipitous.

Bitcoin Elliot Wave Theory

()

(Webinar: Terminal Impulse)

Comment:

Brought price action to the front for clarity.

Comment:

I’m positing a decline for BTC over the weekend but not to fill the $18.5k CME gap. Remember still have 3 drives of hidden, bearish RSI divergence on 4 hourly as well as 3 bullish drives. Note 2 hourly MACD is rolling over (possibly also 4 hourly but not daily):

S&P gap opened today, looks like it might rollover on Monday or Tuesday to back fill today’s gap, in which BTC might front run that over the weekend and/or Monday. Hidden, bearish RSI divergence on 30 min, 1 and 2 hourly with 30 min MACD rolling over.

Comment:

This can be a bullish W pattern or bullish ascending triangle projecting back up to the top of the purple channel. Or it could form a bearish M top and fall out of the bottom of said triangle and channel. That the breakout would occur so near to the apex of the triangle seems to implicate it will fail. Sometimes there is an fake out, break out and falls back down through the apex.

Comment:

Expected slight pullback underway. Sometime this coming week should hit $23+k.

Comment:

(click to see his charts which I am referring to)

Ron Walker proposing to modify his posited Elliot Wave count. The posited Ending Diagonal supports my massive ANYONECANSPEND crash for crypto! Except that he is proposing after the posited December peak and correction maybe pushing to another final higher high in 2023! Wow. Nice. I hope so. So we get one more altcoin season in Q1 2023?

Comment:

(Why December 1973 Looks EXACTLY Like the Stock Market Today (With 2 BIG Exceptions))

They key difference between 1973 and 2022, is the Boomers were causing massive demand side inflationary pressure and unemployment because they were entering the work force and their prime earning years. Whereas our current price inflation is supply side driven, actually premeditated sabotage (cerveza sickness scam, forcing Putin to war, and sabotaging domestic oil production by the Bolsheviks and Neocons in control of our illegitimate government).

Comment:

(click link to see the charts I’m referring to)

E.K.C. is positing a biannual, bearish engulfing candle, comparing to claims of the same in 1973 and 1929.

I refuted E.K.C.:

Technically 1973 and current were not bearish, engulfing biannual candles because the bearish candle did not open above the prior biannual, green candle. With that definition then only 1929 had a bearish, engulfing biannual candle. However someone else claims only the bearish candle body needs to longer than the prior green candle:

(Caution: Bitcoin Is About To Do Something For The FIRST TIME EVER)

Also note 1973 had a wick bull trap nearly up to the prior ATH in the next biannual candle (but nothing like that in 1929!), which is what I am expecting currently. Note that 2022 has some distinct differences from 1973 which bode for markets making a new ATH before the egregious recession crash later in 2023 to 2024.

(Why December 1973 Looks EXACTLY Like the Stock Market Today (With 2 BIG Exceptions))

They key difference between 1973 and 2022, is the Boomers were causing massive demand side inflationary pressure and unemployment because they were entering the work force and their prime earning years. Whereas our current price inflation is supply side driven, actually premeditated sabotage (cerveza sickness scam, forcing Putin to war, and sabotaging domestic oil production by the Bolsheviks and Neocons in control of our illegitimate government).

> “I've watched both Ben & Eric for a while now. Eric is my go to TA guy. Ben is my macro and general market outlook go to.”

@Perri Madison EKC’s backtested, short-term statistical moves have helped me immensely when combined with Ron Walker’s technical analysis. I wish I could find a way to contact Ron Walker to make him aware of EKC’s channel. If so he would have anticipated this recent bounce as EKC was telling us to expect it. Walker has now posited we are in an Ending Diagonal pattern! Someone needs to teach Walker how to properly monetize his channel. His vlog is excellent but he is old school, apparently not even aware that Patreon exists. Perhaps EKC could help him?

@Eric Krown Crypto Make sure you all read my other comment at the top level questioning the validity of your claim of a biannual engulfing, bearish candle. After the incoming lower-low bottom markets are likely rocketing back up to new ATHs before the egregious crash to 1600 on the S&P in 2024.

Comment:

Interesting chart of the egregious volatility of gold’s price rise in Weimar Germany’s currency. If you held gold throughout, you lost all your gains in German marks 4 times until it reached the trilion marks price.

Comment:

Q2 earnings calls to start in about 2 weeks. That could be the driver of the further crash in the markets. But then the markets should realize that the markets will start to complete demand destruction and a Fed pivot into a more bullish stance. Forward VIX has not inverted yet, which normally see at a bottom. Also VIX has not spiked above 40 yet. This analyst will start nibbling at S&P 3550.

Comment:

(click link for the charts)

Current correction has not reached the bottom of the ‘golden zone’ yet.

Comment:

My current trendlines interpretation. Projected up to $23.7 – $25.1k. Could decline to $19.6 – $20k first, but may not.

Comment:

CME seems to indicate this is only a bullish back-test of the wedge broke up out of:

Which can only be true if the S&P doesn’t back-fill that 3803 gap before heading higher to 3963:

Spot BTC is warning of possible a back-test of $19.7 – $20.1k.

Note if make final low on BTC after ~12+ hours, then CME could agree with a $21.2k back-test.

Comment:

I highly suggest this video on 1.5 speed. Maybe 1.75 speed max.

Comment:

(click link for chart referred to)

First chart indicates probably near a bottom. Note the steepening slope of corrections. My issue is that doesn’t work for the 2020 crash and I have shown a megaphone pattern that might be repeating which depending how you draw it could allow for Bitcoin to make a lower low.

Comment:

(click link for charts referred to)

SEC chief says no Bitcoin ETF anytime soon. This signifies that a new ATH is incoming before they approve it! Ah right before the posited ANYONECANSPEND attack. Everything in my model is ailgning!

Last chart indicates likely another liquidity crash in July.

Comment:

Regarding that discussion of Bitcoin bottomed on the launch of the inverse Bitcoin ETF, correct BTC bottomed if we draw the line from the higher low in 2014. But if we draw from the lowest low in 2024, then ~$16.7k is the expected final bottom in July. Which is also the 300 WMA and the key log-scaled Fib retracement.

I can even draw a scenario for $14k:

Comment:

Typo: But if we draw from the lowest low in 2014

Comment:

Selloff FUD today:

Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has been on the hot seat for inflation lately. While speaking to a European Central Bank forum, Powell pledged that the Fed would do everything in its power to prevent inflation from continuing even if that meant shocking the markets with hawkish policies. “There’s a clock running here, where we have inflation running now for more than a year,” Powell said. “It would be bad risk management to just assume those longer-term inflation expectations would remain anchored indefinitely in the face of persistent high inflation. So we’re not doing that.” Powell admitted that there was a risk of “going too far” with rate hikes but said it would be a bigger mistake to allow prices to continually rise.

Comment:

The bottom of the golden zone has not been hit yet. Also numerous other indicators such as 300 WMA, the 0.5 log-scaled Fib retracement and even drawing the trendline from 2014 low through the 2020 low. It’s going higher first to break all those who are short now, then lower low to break all those who flip long prematurely.

Then to a new ATH by December. What is worse is what is coming in 2024. Expect Bitcoin to go near to $0. What Steve does not know is that the official Bitcoin is actually the impostor Bitcoin. The legacy protocol will be restored with an ANYONE CAN SPEND donations to the miners Nash equilibrium restoration “attack” against everyone who held in non-legacy address pay-to-script-hash and variants. Hodl in an address that begins with 1, not 3 nor bc1. The full game theory and economic model details are linked from my About page. Yes I am an expert.

Comment:

MUST WATCH on double speed:

(SP500 Volatility is COILING for a MASSIVE Move | Investors are ALL-IN on PUTS)

GoT mentions the possibility of VIX spiking to 49. Also shows there is a bullish divergence forming on the S&P between advance/decline and price.

Comment:

Forced liquidation of BTC.

Comment:

We have finally bullish RSI divergence on the daily but only on CME (which did not even fill the $18.1 – $18.4k gap yet, because spot made the lower low over the prior weekend when CME was closed). We would need a lower low on spot to potentially achieve a bullish RSI divergence on the daily spot.

Currently there is bullish RSI divergence on all time frames below 2 hours (and perhaps on the 2 hourly as well). Whereas on the 4 hourly we need the price to come down to attain the hidden, bullish RSI divergence, which is already on CME and already (also in addition to the slight non-hidden) on the 2 hourly (but no hidden bullish on lower time frames, although not needed because have non-hidden bullish RSI divergence on the lower time frames).

I was thinking the price might at least fill the $18.1 to $18.4k CME gap (depending on if use prior day close or high respectively) on CME before any attempt at a rebound which concurs with projection to the downside on CME. Yet the bearish Adam & Eve pattern projection to the downside on spot are to a double-bottom $17.8k.

So it appears we have a slight bounce ongoing right now due to the bullish divergences on the lower time frames, but that Friday (in the U.S.) will see CME fill the said gap before closing for another long weekend as Monday July 4 is a holiday in the U.S.. And then likely revisit below $18k for spot price over the weekend. One would think a lower low to form a bullish RSI divergence also on spot. So maybe our targets in the mid $15000s to $16000s range?

So far volume on this rollover has been low, so unless volume picks up then I am having a difficult time imagining this spiking to below $14k over the weekend but maybe it will.

Eric Krown Crypto’s call for a mean reversion bounce play really did not help us as the price has come back down so much (after only a slight move to the upside) after he made that call. He still has a different back tested call in play for a ~30% move to the upside once Bitcoin finds the bottom which his indicator says is imminent, but I don’t know if that means this weekend or even later in July.

Bitcoin’s semi-annual bearish engulfing candle which closed today seems very ominous but as Crypto Crew University (Steve) explained that it doesn’t always play out. But we do need to be wary that below $14k is still potentially in play.

Also worrisome the failure to meet Armstrong’s statement that the S&P needed to close the month above 3950 to have a rally into end of the year.

Comment:

That sudden spike up, back tested the neckline of the bearish pattern, and created hidden, BEARISH divergences on the lower time frames so I think back down we go. I opened a 0.5 BTC short position.

EDIT: I closed the short position in profit because the funding rates are currently positioned short. Maybe a morning rally before declining into the end of the day?

Comment:

EU Council agrees on very strict travel rule for crypto. Moving crypto from unhosted private wallet to an exchange will incur strict due diligence on PoSoFs (proof-of-source-of-funds).

Many miners now mining below cost of production thus forcing liquidations:

Coach K who called the top and shorted all the way down ($1.5M in profit), says Bitcoin will definitely revisit $17.1k and $13.1 – 13.9k is quite plausible. Ugliest $11 – 14k. His short position is open and moving SL down to ~$27k. No volume in move to second $69k top, same as altcoin higher high in 2018 after 2017 BTC top.

Comment:

The CEO of FTX has been warning about a (or multiple) Tier 3 exchange liquidation(s) are imminent. The following linked video discusses this with the CEO of Swan, who makes the point that $13.8k was also the close of the weekly top in 2017. I also see it was also the monthly close! I think we are indeed going to fulfill the terminal Elliot Wave condition that I identified and have been publicly warning about on my Tradingview since the summer 2021 correction. First I think we come down to the ~$16.6k 300 WMA and 0.5 log-scaled Fib retracement, possibly bounce to raise the daily RSI enough to form a bullish divergence if thrusting below $14k. Note the bottom of the 2017 topping monthly candle bodies would fill the $9.7k CME gap.

How prescient I was. If I had only been more confident and put more effort into monitoring my insight. Unfortunately I wasn’t following Ron Walker in 2021 and I didn’t have complete focus (due to being in and out of AirBnB’s in Mexico and U.S. and discombobulated health due to my fatty liver+diabetes and not maintaining my essential, intense barbel workouts. I am correcting these lifestyle mistakes now.

Comment:

{ Photo }
Total stable coin dominance indicating near to a bottom.

Comment:

U.S. consumer spending growth is declining, but still positive thus still growing. Thus companies should not have massively declining earnings expectations when they report starting week after next, although there will be some downgrades. Thus we are setting up for a huge market rally into the end of the year because spending will turn back up as soon as markets do in a positive feedback loop. PCE inflation signaled a potential top for inflation, which interest rates, inflation expectations and oil are confirming.

Comment:

I think going up from here to tag ~$22k, Fib at ~$23k or 200 WMA ~$24.5k possibly on Friday, before coming down to make the lower low and fill the $18.1 – $18.4k CME gap, because I think need the RSI higher before making the lower low for bullish divergence on the 4 hourly and daily. I could be wrong and come back down to fill the CME gap on Friday first.

Comment:

Prior two posts about possibly imminent liquidations:

Another one:

(Bitcoin hovers at $20K, Fundstrat warns of washout, and Three Arrows to liquidate: CNBC Crypto World)

Points out that if $17.5k is breached to the downside, then $12.5k by mid-July is a possibility.

I want to again note the massive semi-annual bearish engulfing candle that just closed.

He also points out that DeFi entities have been stable. The CeFi (centralized finance entities, e.g. wrapped ETH) that are failing. So DeFi could come back stronger after this in the long-term.

Comment:

Another very bearish video. $13.8k and $11k to the downside. No capitulation candle yet on the monthly (although didn’t have one in Dec 2018 either yet it was a very rounded bottoming process). With so many now expecting a washout, maybe a rally first even up to $28k is possible. Maybe tag the CME gap again (while CME is open) or $15 – 16.6k before a rally?

I have $13.1 – 13.8k range for that next lower low if the 300 WMA and 0.5 log-scale Fib are breached ($15 – $16.6k).

Strong support is really only $10 – 12k. Remember the price (not percentage) projection is $12k. Bitcoin Dominance projecting to 62%!

Dollar may breakout to the upside! S&P to downside!

(Shocking $13,880 Bitcoin Price Target In July Fact Or Fiction?)

Comment:

That speculation would be a double bottom or Adam & Eve pattern with a possible projection up to ~$24+k, so we can’t rule out a rally to break all the shorts first. DXY could back test the top of the ascending triangle first. Remember E.K.C. had a short-term scenario for a ~30% (15 – 49%) bounce from whatever low we establish on this pullback.

Ascending triangle on the DXY on the weekly implies dollar headed to 107 – 108 imminently then call fall back down through the apex sometime between July 11 and Aug 1. Note the bearish RSI divergence! This is probably the incoming peak.

Bearish ascending wedge for DXY on the daily shows dollar could top at any time and 106 may be the max.. Note could (short-term only) breakout the top side of the normally bearish wedge giving way to the short-term bullish weekly ascending triangle.

Comment:

{ Album }
We need roughly (perhaps slightly more or less) another month equivalent to June in July to bring bring the monthly chart Accumulation/Distribution down to the level for a bottom. That would project to ~$12.5k for a closing price for July. Note the trendline E.K.C. is employing on this chart and this methodology is inexact, so any particular translation to a bottom price is fraught to span a wide range of possibilities (even higher or lower than $12.5k). The key takeaway is significant more downside required. Avg downside projects to $15.7k. May linger in doldrums for 3 – 4 months if mimics 2018/9 instead of 2020.

Notice the blip of green in 2019 before back red on corona crash

He again speculates that a closing today above ~$19.2k or perhaps a bit lower than that next week, could imply that 15 – 49% bounce I mentioned. We need to wait for that short-term confirmation signal, because otherwise risk is still weighted to downside for July overall. Front run at your own risk.

(Bitcoin Macro Nobody Wants To See This Chart For Price … click to the see the charts I am referring to)

Comment:

{ Album }
VERY IMPORTANT

Ron Walker thinks if $13.9k is breached, BTC can’t make a new ATH and instead will just bounce for wave B in an A-B-C correction that will make an ever lower low after the wave B bounce. Whatever the case, the $15 – $16.6k area looks like possible area for more short-term bounce (to perhaps $23 – 28k) if not the current lows.

(The Bitcoin Elliott Wave Count Suggests One More Dump To Bottom - BTCs Next Leg Down Likely Underway)

My new BTC chart interpretation!! Meaning the wave B bounce only to $47 – 51k. Note Bitcoin didn’t make new ATH on either rally during 2019 even though S&P did, presumably because no Fed QE until 2020. So S&P could make ATH and be in an Ending Diagonal with BTC to underperform! This chart is dire, as it says something very bad happens later this year or Q1 2023. Russia invades Lithuania? Inflation will spike up again.

Comment:

> “How prescient I was. If I had only been more confident and put more effort into monitoring my insight. Unfortunately I wasn’t following Ron Walker in 2021”

Actually I see now why I got confused in Q1 2022 and bought the dip prematurely, because I had my upper pink trendline for my megaphone pattern too steeply sloped. Thus I did not realize where in the pattern that Q1 2022 final bull trap bounce was! Now I realize it corresponded to that bull trap bounce in October 2019 on my repeating megaphone pattern hypothesis.

Luckily I am realizing this before it is too late to expect a $12 – $13k bottom and to be aware the bounce may be only to $47k. But does $47k come before $13k?

Note likely to get some short-term bounce from current low or a slightly lower low (but above $14k) before any if any plummet to the egregious lows. So as to create some hopium that bottom is in and that major wave #4 is above the top of wave #1 so hopium that can still go to new ATHs. Because suddenly the crypto sector has turned bearish and too many people are expecting the washout imminently. Markets tend to do opposite of what the herd expects.

I am not going to take any additional positions until BTC either bounces (in which case I will short) or puts in a slightly lower low before a bounce (in which case I may take a long depending on evaluation then).

Comment:

Oddly if the pattern repeats then BTC expected to recover in 2023 and make egregious ATHs in 2025. Does the Fed restart QE or would this just be legacy BTC skyrocketing due to ANYONECANSPEND consumed all the supply and/or driving mining hashrate to the moon?

Here is a different major wave count that may make more sense, especially with so many in the news calling for $12 – 13k imminently then it’s likely not going to happen. And thus the bottom would be ~$16.7k now (300 WMA) and $15.5k in September, then the wave #4 and below $14k would delayed until the mega crash Q1 2023.

Maybe the CeFi default liquidations will be delayed, then they will sell BTC on the rise to $47k.

In this scenario some altcoins survive going forward into a new altcoin season in 2025 – 2026 comparable to 2021 – 2022.

The VIX will not spike to 49 until Q1 2023 in this interpretation of the future.

Comment:

Newly published idea to carry on this discussion:

Comment:

Alessio Rastani agrees with me that too many people think a washout to $10k is imminent. Thus unlikely to happen now.

(Alessio Rastani On What's Next For Bitcoin, Altcoins, & Stocks - Fed, Recession, Goldman Sachs)

Comment:

Crypto Crew University points out that Bitcoin has probably bottomed but he also points out at the end that something ominous is coming to Bitcoin. This is a compilation of all his recent videos wrapped up into one:

(Warning: Everyone is WRONG About When Bitcoin Bottom - This Will Happen Instead)

I commented:

@Crypto Crew University expecting a temporary bottom in July not lower than $15k. May come back down to retest bottom by September. Then a bounce to $47k by December (which happens to be below the log regression fit bottom which you point out will be the overhead resistance in December but that is not how I arrived at the $47k). Then a further crash below $14k probably below $12k in 2023 before the final bottom. Eric Krown Crypto’s Accumulation/Distribution will reach a bottom by September. Said indicator will blip into the green before the crash to a higher low on said indicator mirroring the corona dump. There is a repeating megaphone pattern on price from 2019–2020 which I identified publicly on my trading view (shelby3) in June 2021 that helps me predict this, as well as the terminal impulse Elliot Wave condition from the corona dump and correlating where we are in the bull market cycle. Note the ominous signs you have identified are because an ANYONE CAN SPEND attack is coming against Bitcoin next year which will destroy the 2017 NY agreement soft fork and restore the legacy protocol. I am an expert on this game theory. You will find that I was having public technical discussions (Bitcointalk forum) with Charles Hoskinson (founder of Cardanao) back in 2013.

Comment:

I think the bottom for July is probably $16.6 – $17.8k this weekend, mostly likely July 4. I believe we will finally have bullish RSI divergence on the daily for both spot and CME by market open on Tuesday, July 5. Already have it on the CME but the $18.1 – 18.4k CME gap didn’t fill yet, so if spot wick bottoms on July 4 then on the rebound if CME opens on evening of July 4 (Eastern Standard time zone) such that price is not too low so as to drag RSI too low on the CME but low enough to fill said gap. Timing works best this weekend probably although some might argue that earnings downgrades starting second week of July might bring out the pessimism for a bottom. Market tends to price things in ahead of news though. Maybe bottom is next weekend? Or maybe stock markets bottom days after Bitcoin does opposite of the case at the recent $17.6k low. Or S&P bottoms next week and BTC bottoms next weekend. In any case, I am not buying until CME fills its said gap (spot filled it already but that isn’t valid).

May get a slight bounce along the way this weekend. Will probably get a slightly lower low in September after decent (15 – 49%) bull trap bounce. After that rockets to $47+k by December. The lower, egregious lows to come after that perhaps late Q1 2023.

Comment:

E.K.C. confirms my point that CME is looking potentially bullish for next week, but that over the weekend is potentially bearish because the daily stochastic is turned down unless BTC can retake $20k today.

E.K.C. points out an inverted Cup&Handle projecting imminently down to $16.5k.

(Bitcoin Beware The Weekend Trap For Price)

Comment:

Adam & Eve top underway.

Comment:

Interesting:

BTCUSD/SPX - Bullish Falling Wedge (UPDATE)

Comment:

I think the bearish Adam & Eve pattern has already played out.

Time is running out for the bears. Bollinger bands are squeezing very tightly on Bitcoin, so any move down will be muted and the probable breakout to the upside may be imminent.

(BREAKOUT COMING!)

Comment:

This math nut is posting some interesting analyses.

Comment:

Bwahaha:

Comment:

URGENT: probably wise to buy Bitcoin asap as 20 – 40% breakout could be imminent. I will follow-up with the reasoning.

There’s also a bearish argument, but near-term looks like attempting to build the momentum (higher highs and lows since the June 30 low on CME) to breakout of the strong downtrending resistance on CME between currently $20.4 – 20.7k (former is slightly uptrending and later declining over time) and horizontal resistance ~21.3k to breakout to overhead resistance ~$23.5 and $25+k. On CME but not on spot charts, there is bullish RSI divergence on all time frames from daily and lower. The bearish case is to fail at overhead resistance because there’s already hidden bearish RSI divergence on all time frames, except note if break above said ~$21.5k, then daily RSI has a huge room to run up before hidden RSI bearish divergence develops again (thus I am leaning to this near-term bullish scenario and I have additional reasons). I think CME eventually fills that $18.1 – 18.4k gap.

Comment:

I think the bearish Adam & Eve pattern has already played out.

Among other reasons to favor a rally now is that Bitcoin has been moving more sideways than down since June 15 and on CME looks more like reversal pattern than the bear trap horizontal action from May 13 to June 6 — compare the thick cyan trend lines on my first chart.

Can eventually form a bearish cyan pattern but need the significant bull trap bounce first:

Comment:

Additionally although spot price doesn’t have bullish RSI divergence (which likely means a lower low after any bull trap rally yet a bull trap would help to insure posited, lower low would be a higher low on RSI), there’s a typically bullish breakout ascending triangle. Near-term outlook is that price has already retaken said horizontal resistance and is now vying to challenge the $21.3 – $22k resistances (including a Fib retracement level).

Although there’s bearish lower low trend lines as well, if can breakout of the more flimsy, lowest overhead resistance then a bull trap to higher, more solid overhead resistance ~$23k and ~$25k. Daily candle bodies look like a double bottom, bullish W pattern!

Comment:

Additionally E.K.C. has explained that a 4 hourly close above ~$19.7k would signify that unlikely further downside before a backtested 20 – 50% rally from ~$19k (average of backtesting is +31% over ~14 days). In particular the corresponding juncture in November 2018 was +38% over 10 days.

(Bitcoin Daily Showing Potential Signals On Price Next 48 Hours)

(Bitcoin Building A Trap For Price In The Next 48 Hours)

Daily stochastic turned up given that July 4 closed (UTC) above $20.14k and $19k.

Comment:

Daily close was $19.3k. Thus a +38% (or +50%) move over the next 10 days would project to $26634 (or $28.9k). Measured from ~$19k would be $26.2k.

That’s an interesting price target and timing, because it precisely matches the following stochastic process (chaos theory) modeling. In this math nut’s model if BTC can assault $26.3k by the latest July 16, then his immediate upside resistance levels are $32.8k then $35.3k, followed by as high as $47k in August. Remember I have $47 – 53k as my upside target by December. However, I think his model is far too accelerated for $47k in August ($40.2k is overhead resistance of regression fit for Aug 24), unless I am incorrect about Elliot Wave #4 extending to below $13.8k after a bounce to $47 – 53k. I think his $32.8k level will fail after possibly filling the $28.8k CME gap as diagrammed on my chart. Note my cyan rectangles fractal as for why I don’t think my posited lower low will breach $15.5k.

Above is an update to my recently published idea:

Comment:

Further refinement:

Comment:

I understand the power of a short squeeze and FOMO driving massive reversion of demand (and sector rotation from risk off to on) but the potential September 0.75 rate hike fear will return to the markets limiting the FOMO follow through. The math prodigy computes{1} that the algos have been meticulously setting up for this move (by for example setting up a Feigenbaum and Hopf chaos theory fixed points bifurcation involving doubling the amplitude range while halving the frequency/cycle/period) but he admits that they may fail to get enough momentum and need to reset their algos for a future attempt to flip the market bullish from a lower low.

Range of possibilities including as high as $36k (there’s a $35.3k CME gap and positing the regression fit has become overhead resistance) and lower low as low as $9k (although above $29k looks unlikely), but in no case can I find a chart structure that supports $47k by August 24 unless I radically increase the slope of the top of the posited megaphone or only change the posited fractal, which would alter the timing and fractal pattern correspondence to the posited prior megaphone occurrence. Also E.K.C.’s Accumulation/Distribution indicator points to sideways to downside action until September albeit with a bull trap interim. And assuming I am correct $36k maximum then regardless of the actual level of the bull trap bounce high, Bitcoin will come back down again probably to make a lower low or at least a significant correction before assaulting $47 – 53k probably in December.

Note also the posited correspondence to Q4 2018 and the possibility of a higher low after the bull trap bounce (although that wouldn’t necessary probably a bullish RSI divergence on spot until it was a lower low than $18.6k but higher than the $17.6k low thus perhaps filling that CME gap $18.1 – 18.4k):

{1}

Comment:

Zoomed out:

Comment:

> “but in no case can I find a chart structure that supports $47k by August 24 unless I radically increase the slope of the top of the posited megaphone or only change the posited fractal, which would alter the timing and fractal pattern correspondence to the posited prior megaphone occurrence”

Here are those two possible reinterpretations respectively but they both seem lack some facets of congruence as compared to my preferred interpretation. These would not doubt be shocking and not at all what the uber bearish greater fool mass market is expecting:

Comment:

@otwa2113, you might be correct, but consider the updates since July 4 to my published idea Bitcoin bottom to be or not to be?. I’m going to try to convince you that your $26k may be achieved but the $32 and/or $35k are likely to fail unless my model needs to be reinterpreted. $47k by Aug 24 seems impossible in my fractal megaphone model, unless I change the posited correspondences to the seemingly less congruent in which case your model fits as I have shown in said updates. Note my models and analyses definitely agree a significant bounce is likely imminent.

Comment:

I think we will get one more chance to buy around $19.8k within next several hours. After that I think it’s rockets up.

Comment:

EDIT: That was quick. Only 30 minutes later we are there $19.8k.

I should have put more effort into my estimate of a potential pullback. I was too short-term bullish and should have estimated the worst case. If $19.4k then $19.2k don’t hold as support (or worse case $19.1k), then may be headed down to fill $18.1 – 18.4k CME gap before any bull trap rally and that could get ugly with significantly lower lows.

CME:

Spot:

Comment:

Don’t yet have (hidden nor regular) bullish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly for CME nor spot. Had hidden, bearish RSI divergence on 4 hourly before this correction, thus posit that need to form the opposite on 4 hourly. This implies CME below prior $18.55k low (with RSI making a higher low for bullish divergence) and probably at least fill the CME gap. I don’t have an indication whether lower than prior $17.6k low on spot to form bullish RSI divergence on spot daily (already have on the daily CME).

E.K.C. explained we have until ~16:00 UTC (about 2 hours from now) for the BTC price to retake ~$19.6k else probably invalidate the bull trap. Need a daily closure (~10 hours from now on CME) below $19.03k for the daily stochastic to turn back down. So again as I said if breach $19.1k to downside on any significant closure (e.g. 1+ hour time frame), then bull trap is probably invalidated. Daily volatility signal is still very high which is often a corrective or sideways signal (which was the case for that bull trap bounce starting May 27) and daily BBWP hasn’t reached the ideal low for bullish yet (which was NOT the case for said bull trap ensuing from May 27) although it was already getting close and that video was made before this significant pullback, so daily BBWP may have already come down more, so any bull trap bounce (e.g. to $23k) could be the extent of it or perhaps need to make a lower low first before any bull trap move. I am waiting for the invalidation condition in 2 hours or a break of $19.1k before exiting my short-term long positions.

(Bitcoin Trap Initiated & What To Expect Next For Price)

Comment:

Bitcoin CME appears to be bullish despite the hidden, bearish RSI divergence on the daily chart, which will be cleared once the price is over ~$21.5k. Maybe next day UTC (which will open in an hour) or day after next (July 7) can come up through the apex of the overhead wedge fell out of 4 days ago.

Near-term bearish RSI divergence on all time frames below 4 hourly (and also 4 hourly on spot but not on CME), so price might come back down one more time below $20k.

Comment:

Centralized (traditional, old) finance failing, not DeFi:

(URGENT WARNING: GET YOUR CRYPTO OFF THESE EXCHANGES NOW!)

Comment:

OPTICALARTdotCOM is expecting (after possibly a bounce to $23.5k then) a further decline by early August to $16.5k.

(Bitcoin Drop to $16.5k early August 2022! The Domino Effect)

Note though my own interpretation of his chart at the 11 min mark, is ~$29k by second week of August is the upper bound.

Comment:

On CME since June 30, BTC has been trying to push up to break out to upside which has a projected target of ~$23.5k. But this looks like an ascending, narrowing wedge with a downside projection to fill the $18.1k CME gap by Friday, and which can more often be a bearish pattern. But note it’s inside of a declining channel which can be a bullish pattern but said channel is abnormally elongated. Said elongated channel is posited to be within a larger, deeper, broadening, descending wedge which doesn’t look elongated, is a bullish pattern, but which is true needs an egregiously low third touch. If said channel is breached, then lookout below for a blood bath perhaps over the weekend for spot (CME closed). The posited, descending channel and broadening may just be imagined and essentially all I really see is an Adam & Eve pattern with thick cyan-colored neckline that has probably completed and price can break up and out through the apex on June 7. Conflicting signals!

BTC’s spot price chart has a completed Adam & Eve which failed to meet downside price target (because CME’s was higher). The only other clear pattern is an ascending triangle which is normally bullish and the breakout projection is $25+k. The downside breach projection is $15.7k. Overall I say the probabilities slightly favor a breakout to the upside than a lower low, yet thus not filling the $18.1k CME gap and not forming a bullish RSI divergence on daily for spot (have it for CME). CME may be dominating given Adam & Eve fulfilled on CME but not on spot.

Comment:

Remember I pointed out previously that this current sideways action is the mirror opposite on the vertical axis compared to the one in May! Thus thus should have a massive breakout to the upside perhaps to $29k. If true then might get one more wick down to $19.6k.

There are too many people expecting a lower low and crash right now because of the FUD about CeFi entities failing — DeFi didn’t fail (well except in the case of Luna where the algorithmic peg unraveled but due to centralized actions of minting more Luna to attempt to prevent the peg from defaulting).

Comment:

Coach K who is in $1.5M profit shorting this correction, points out the potential for more downside, emphasizing the stronger levels of lower horizontal support, yet for example ETH already appears to me to be in strong horizontal support with downside at most $800. If my repeating (also 2019–2020) megaphone thesis is correct, Coach K’s lowest levels can be hit on extreme crash after my posited bull trap bounce to ~$47 – 53k scenario. He’s correct about the breakout of the dollar over coming years, but DXY can come back down and retest the neckline of that bullish W pattern breakout. I agree more downside likely on ADA (Cardanao) but the washout to his ‘strong buy’ is probably after mega, bull trap bounce into December I am positing. Fantom chart clearly indicates an incoming multi-month bull trap bounce needed to form right shoulder of mega-bearish H&S.

(Total crypto market cap)

(URGENT WARNING: GET YOUR CRYPTO OFF THESE EXCHANGES NOW!)

Comment:

I doubt Celsius will be liquidated anytime soon, if at all. The board may want to selfishly do so, but they could get themselves into legal trouble as they have a fiduciary responsibility to not crash the crypto market and instead must consider the best possible options. In any case I expect the legal wrangling to take some time to play out.

(HUGE News For Celsius Crypto Holders! What Are The Immediate Next Steps?)

Comment:

Fear is that strong horizontal support not yet hit on Total Crypto market cap and BTC. But both seemed to bottom at equivalent horizontal support as previous cycle. Downside appears to be at most 300 WMA maybe in September after a bounce, or immediately. Q4 2018 was higher low after bounce and October 2019 was slightly lower low. Perhaps crypto has bottomed for now and bounce incoming, or one more muted leg down (not below $15k). In my posited, repeating megaphone model and terminal impulse Elliot Wave, egregiously lower price levels are for after the posited bull trap bounce to ~$50k by December (after the posited September pullback), unless we complete wave #4 now below $13.9k and then go for a new ATH by December instead of only a bull trap to ~$50k.

Comment:

Pi Cycle Bottom indicator projected to signal a bottom on July 12. Neither a bounce nor decline can prevent this signal. So does this mean BTC is about to dump to the 300 WMA for the final bottom? Or will the signal be placed after the bottom or in between a temporary bottom and a final bottom or higher low?

(chart)

Comment:

My confidence is reduced because of the Pi Cycle bottom indicator.

Even if we posit that the May sideways action was an ascending triangle, we can’t find that pattern on CME now although a possible interpretation of the spot price. Does that mean going to break up out, or does it mean CME has a bullish formation but with lower lows first?

Comment:

> > “@Eric Krown Crypto view the Pi Cycle bottom indicator on the daily. The weekly screws it up. You will clearly see it is going to cross within 2 weeks.”
>
> “@S. Moore do we expect another small dump or bigger dump?”

@Sander My guess is smallish somewhere around the 300 MWA. I have my reasoning for this posted to my trading view. I agree with Eric that the final bottom is not likely in, although unclear if a significant bounce first.

My main reason is we need a bullish RSI divergence on the daily for spot. Have it for CME but need a lower low than $17.6k on spot. But not too low else bullish RSI divergence wouldn’t form thus likely over a weekend with CME filling that $18.1k gap on a Friday or Monday. Also market psychology. Scare the crap out of everyone thinking it is going to plummet to $13k or lower, while stopping far above of that level.

Comment:

Let’s look only at the candle bodies on the daily to remove the noise. Both CME and spot are indicating a lower low on July 11 with a bullish declining channel as opposed to the bearish ascending channel for May. The Pi Cycle bottom indicator should actually cross on July 11 UTC (Saturday night or Sunday in the U.S.A.) not July 12.

The plummet from May to June was elongated and extreme. That amount of momentum is too much to turn around with only one drive to a lower. We need a capitulation low but decelerating (as the forces of bottoming pushing up against the downward momentum) so less elongated than the prior.

Notice for May that “rallied” back down to the apex but then “plummeted“ again back up before “breaking out“ to the egregious crash. Currently at the apex again, so should plummet again before breaking out (but the directions are reversed from May).

Comment:

BTC just closed the 6 hour below $20167 thus invalidating E.K.C.’s backtested bounce theory BS. I looked at the history he is citing from and he is cherry picking based on an arbitrary green horizontal line. Will be much more cautious in evaluating his videos. He has mislead me twice on this bottoming process into bullish hopium.

Comment:

Remember the crucial point I reiterated in my most recent published idea Bitcoin's Ominous "terminal impulse", that in a terminal impulse Elliot Wave condition (which currently is the case because major wave #2 which was the corona crash retraced more than 61.8% of wave #1) requires all wave structures to be A-B-C (where W-Y-X is an A-B-C containing A-B-C). So thus Ron Walker’s hypothesis seems likely:

(click for charts referred to)

Comment:

Massive short squeeze coming.

(The SP500 Hasn’t Done This Since 2008. Investors are Piling on the WRONG Side of this Trade)

Comment:

Referring to the linked chart, I think Dec 2018 to June 2019 may replay, so a low in July, bounce in August, higher low in September, then rockets from October to December for the posited ~$50k top (will likely not be a Pi Cycle top since posited to be a bull trap bounce before major wave #4 completes with an egregious low).

(395 / 567) * 395 - 151 = 3 more months before rockets (July, August, September).

For Nov/Dec 2018 bottom call from chart at 8:23 in video, actually called the bottom at the higher low and not the lower low, which I posit will repeat now.

(Bitcoin Outlook (A Discussion With Steve From Crypto Crew University))

Comment:

List of July newsworthy U.S. Economic Calendar{1} had some slightly improving economic activity thus far, but the ultra hawkish St Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks today at 1pm EST (as well Fed Gov. Christopher Waller). On Monday and Tuesday have inflation expectations the June CPI reports, as well numerous related follow on reports throughout next week and remainder of July.

Recession (thus demand destruction) fears have been increasing as evidenced by commodity prices dropping, yet dollar remains elevated because of international capital stampeding to safety and fears about international war and rising interest rates creating more demand for dollar denominated debt throughout the world thus causing countries outside the U.S.A. to experience worse inflation, declining exports and economic decline.

So while risk-on stock markets would cheer a recession to the extent it might force the Fed to be less hawkish (or restart QE after a market crash yet stocks wouldn’t cheer that in anticipation), if the Fed is both talking tough on raising interest rates and withdrawing QE into a looming recession, there could be fear about going into the weekend holding risk-on investments given the uncertainty about the severity of the inflation reports expected on Monday and Tuesday.

Thus I will honor the Pi Cycle bottom indicator’s likely cross on July 11 and remain positioned to expect a wick low to 300 WMA or below on spot price BTC over the weekend.

Bitcoin appears to be rolling over perhaps with one last wick up to ~$21k similar to the price action in the last week of June. Spot price if drawn as a wedge looks like a continuation pattern to the downside. What is the momentum to drive a massive breakout to the upside? Seems we need a slingshot, stomp down capitulation move first? Markets don’t bottom with a lengthy horizontal treading of water.

If I am correct about this last capitulation of FUD over this weekend, then throughout July the markets will likely become more focused about the Fed needing to become less hawkish due to potential for a recession. And we are likely to finally get some statements from other Fed members to that effect. At which time the dollar might finally start to retrace a bit. So then we can get a rally into early August. Then probably rollover again with renewed fears/focus about whether Fed will raise 75 basis points in September. After get through the September hurdle, then rockets engaged on the markets until after the U.S. midterms election in late November. After September should finally have clarity that the Fed is on a trajectory to pause. This will of course be reversed after the election with Russia invading Lithuania and $200 oil.

{1}

Comment:

I am contemplating shorting. It’s quite obvious what is likely to happen here:

Comment:

Typo: demand for dollars due to dollar denominated debt

Comment:

OPTICALARTdotCOM (who had called for $14k BTC back when it was above $40k) thinks DXY (dollar) is nearing a top and BTC to have a bull trap, relief rally soon.

(Emergency! DXY almost topped out! Bitcoin Pump Soon!)

He also has low $18k and $15.4 – 16.8k as downside targets if do not breakout to the upside:

(How and why avocados are crashing the price of bitcoin!)

DXY has massive upside over next years.

Comment:

@otwa2113, there’s substantial liquidity-connected actors on CME futures for Bitcoin which does have gaps. The Bitcoin CME chart adds significantly to my expectation, because the $18.1k CME gap didn’t fill yet even though spot dipped below that level on low weekend volume (retail traders only). Additionally there can be overriding factors at larger scales. I am confident you agree our universe is fractal (or at least that’s a model to consider). I measured the decline of BTC from top of bounce before the crash in May on the CME chart. I measured down from the highest point of the May bounce. Indicates to me the move down did not yet complete. The oscillation around the 1120 for ETH resembles the undamped waffling of a loudspeaker after an impulse signal — as you know differential equations apply. So your assumption is that reversion to the mean probabilities drive the next impulse up, but what if there are overriding factors that generate another downward impulse before your mean reversion is activated. Also the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator crosses (signals) on July 11 and it has called the bottom within 2 days twice before. The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been correct 4 times in Bitcoin’s history. I agree a significant bull trap rally is coming, but there may be other factors outside your assumptions that cause a delay until October. We may only get a bounce to ~$29k (maybe after my expected decline this weekend) and then a pullback in September first. I wish I had time to brush up on the exact methods you’re employing so I could comment more meaninfully and mathematically. I did complete (and top 3 tester) in math courses such as Linear Algebra, Probability and Statitistics Theory, Diff. Eq., Calculus I, II, III, etc. some 37 years ago. But I did not complete a minor in Math although I originally was working on it.

P.S. The impostor Bitcoin going to 0 as I posit, will actually be the Big Bang to drive the legit, legacy protocol Bitcoin to the stratosphere. And I know the exact mechanism because the donations to the miners will fund a massively high hashrate. The Bitcoin price is correlated to the miner’s reward.

Comment:

(Warning: Bitcoin Is About To Do Something For FIRST TIME IN 11 YEARS!🔥)

@Crypto Crew University your E.W.C. is incorrect. Wave 1 can’t extend beyond the start of wave A of the correction. Wave 1 is where market sentiment remains bearish, which is what gives rise to wave 2. There is an A-B-C correction to the December 2018 bottom and then a wave 1 in 2019 followed by terminal impulse wave 2 that retraced more than 61.8% of wave 1 due to the corona dump. That terminal impulse condition requires that wave 4 retrace back below the top of wave 1 which was $13.9k. We are probably still in wave 4 right now and any bull trap bounce to as high as ~$50k should be sold as the price is going to come crashing back down below $13.9k eventually (perhaps Q1 2023).

Comment:

Break out obviously. So upside before final bottom.

Thus the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator is going to fail to signal the exact day of the bottom, unless rejected at $22.6k for a rising wedge that’s only on spot not CME. Next overhead resistance is ~$22.6 – 23.7k with a key Fib retracement and maximum of the range bottom $23.2k. Overall upside of T/A pattern projections is at most ~$24.5 – 25k. There’s a gap to fill at ~$29k. For spot the earliest the price could crash back down if not rejected $22.6k is roughly a week from now. Estimates for how long this bounce could play out range from said, to more likely early to late August before rolling over. I still think the bottom is not in, but I will not bet against the obvious breakout until some overhead resistance is hit. If we assume the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator will demarcate the middle of two drives to a bottom, then the spot chart indicates maybe the final bottom will be early August. Whereas for CME would indicate start of fourth week of July. OPTICALARTdotCOM predicts $16.5k for early August.

St. Louis Fed James Bullard was not overly hawkish and expects disinflation would proceed for a soft landing, not a recession. He did not inflame expectations for very hawkish Fed funds increases after July. Also U.S. mortgage rates had a significant drop today. If inflation data next week indicates a topping, then markets could rally significantly. Unless worse than June CPI report, then I don’t expect a renewed crash. I thought there would be more fear this week about the inflation data coming next week, but the break out at significant distance from any T/A pattern apex says I was wrong. Unless earnings guidance is universally bad over the next weeks, then what is the catalyst for another drive to the bottom? The only thing that comes to mind is renewed fears about a 75 basis September Fed Funds hike. Maybe some negative development w.r.t. war with Russia? Remember Shanghai recently reopened production from lockdowns. The rally will get ahead of itself and then some FUD will return but I put odds that is not next week or even the week after.

Comment:

@Crypto Crew University The alternative is that the candle body of wave 2 did not retrace more than 61.8% of wave 1, thus wave 4 is completing now and we will have a wave 5 to a new ATH perhaps by Q1 2023.

Additionally a flat correction requires that A-B-C is a 3-3-5 wave pattern which obviously is not present in the incorrect E.W.C. you presented.

Comment:

(The Truth about the Massive 2022 Great Recession.)

Kevin indeed there will be a bounce, but eventually this rolls over into the Greater Recession as you have pointed out. And then the VIX will spike. So be prepared to sell the bounce or new ATH later this year or Q1 2023. The incoming bounce will only be the deadcat or final ATH before the egregious recession. Inflation expectations down, but still on a mega-bullish trend. Oil will be $200+ in 2023 simultaneous with a recession. Stagflation on steriods. Catalyst will probably be Russia forced by Lithuania to take the Sulwaki corridor perhaps blamed on the Fed for easing a bit.

Comment:

Crypto Zombie explains the Adam & Eve pattern (pointed Adam's apple in the neck) and says it’s often a bottoming pattern, as it was in 2018! Thus folks I stand corrected when I shifted to bearish because of the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator’s incoming cross on July 11. The (at least temporary) bottom is behind us now. Note overhead resistance at 50 DMA ($21.6k) which we are battling now and $21.8k 210 WMA (which was the candle body bottom of all prior corrections). He has his spot chart symmetrical triangle with an apex tomorrow implying downside risk still. I had ignored that because I don’t see it on CME, but remember only spot trades over the weekend. Could we have an aberrant wick bottom over the weekend to align with Pi Cycle Bottom so as to slingshot the price upwards? Doubt it but a pullback to below $20k is plausible.

Comment:

If 2019 bottom structure is repeating then maybe price action will be like this.

If Nov 2019 pullback structure is repeating then maybe future price action will resemble the following.

Comment:

E.K.C. makes the point that a weekly close higher low is ‘the one big signal’ for the trend reversal. So at least we need to come back down to make a higher low weekly close, and if that is a lower low (in early August) then higher low will come later perhaps September.

(Bitcoin Outlook (A Discussion With Eric Krown))

Comment:

What could take Bitcoin down again into August? How about adding the risk of the dollar rallying anew to 108 due to the British pound falling in a Panic Cycle?

British Politics – Johnson Resigns Taking the Pound With Him

Comment:

Proportionally if the bounce within Nov 2019 repeats then $22.6 – 23.8k before declining to make a slightly higher or lower low.

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Everyone seems focused on the potentially bullish patterns. What about that typically bearish ascending channel on the Bitcoin spot chart and total crypto market cap?

Granted the ascending channel not visible on the CME Bitcoin chart, which leads to believe price is going back up to at least $23k:

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Ditto the Nasdaq. Maybe that is not a breakout.

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VIX has to go up now, which means markets back down?

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There is a better version of Bitcoin Dominance that removes the stable coins which are becoming a large percentage of the altcoins. Note this trader is waiting for potential downside.

Comment:

E.K.C.’s 5 day Jewel indicator is signaling “God Mode” is closure today (UTC in 2 hours from now) above $19.7k. The only other time this signaled was the bottom December 17ish, 2018. The 5 day crossing up has corresponded to huge bullish moves.

Comment:

Based on this latest E.K.C. video I am expecting this Bitcoin bounce to hit ~$25k before coming back down to make a higher low or lower low. Seems at least ~$23.3k is very likely. Upside remains ~$29k.

Comment:

> “Based on this video (and the proportional measurement of +38.5% bounce from Dec. 15 given -84% versus -74% decline) I am expecting this Bitcoin bounce to hit ~$25k before coming back down”

Okay additional clarity and improved probabilities now on this incoming bounce.

Appears to be a bullish breakout from a normally bearish symmetrical wedge (which is taller than in May implying a larger bounce) and/or a bullish inverted H&S pattern. Projections and overhead resistance confluence around $25.3 – 25.5k. High enough to create bull trap FOMO hopium for a $29k gap fill. $23.2k may hold as overhead resistance but I doubt it. Expecting a retracement first into the shaded rectangle to scare everyone into thinking May crash is repeating.

Comment:

Telsa has started to move up because Elon canceled the Twitter deal. YTuber Meet Kevin hypothesizes that it’s only a ploy to negotiate a lower $37 buyout price. So yeah expect a bounce here, but the markets are coming back down in August for a slightly higher or lower low before lift off. Earning season will include forward guidance downward revisions. Note my latest updates on BTC and altcoins also signaling a decent bounce incoming but not the impulsive breakout you are expecting. Markets are still in bull trap mode until September.

Comment:

@otwa2113, my published idea updates have identified $25.5k as the most likely top of what’s posited to be a bull trap bounce. Your $26.3k resistance is also plausible. Why is your model so binary in that if BTC doesn’t break out above May high, you seem to think BTC will crash to $10k. Why do you posit that the December 2019 bottom can’t repeat, or even a repeat of the slightly lower low of the November 2019 bottom both of which is I posit are topologically related to the current bottoming process? However if BTC is headed back up to a new ATH by Q4 or Q1, then wave #4 needs to complete below $13.9k. Whereas if the bull trap bounce in Q4 will only be to ~$50k as the B move of the A-B-C correction for wave #4, then wave #4 does not need to complete now and can be delayed to Q1 2023 or so, for a $5k bottom instead before wave #5 begins. I have pointed out that given the posited terminal impulse E.W. condition (given posited wave #2 retraced more than 61.8% of wave #1 during the March 2020 panic, corona dump) that wave #4 must decline below the top of wave #1 ($13.9k). If so, my uncertainty is whether wave #4 is completing now or if this was only wave A down. In a terminal impulse E.W. situation then all waves have an A-B-C structure.

Comment:

However CME is only projecting to $23.2k, so possibly a move if any to $25+k may only be over next weekend to bull trap retail FOMO while CME is closed?

Comment:

After a pullback to ~$1160, I am expecting a bull trap projection for ETH to ~$1470 – 1520 next week, albeit $1700 upside if BTC to $29k. Thus ~27 – 30% upside over the next week, compared to ~22 – 26% expected for BTC depending on the extent of the BTC’s pullback (albeit ETH could pullback more than I expect increasing the upside % projection). Expecting up to $4450 in December if BTC tops at the posited ~$50k scenario, thus up to ~67% leverage over BTC albeit alts could top after BTC thus leverage could vacillate on way up. Posited incoming August low ~$785 – $940. ETH/BTC bounce to $0.059 – 0.061, decline back to support for August low, upside into December is 0.072 – 0.089.

If $15.5k doesn’t hold for BTC, then ‘timberrrr’ for ETH (~$350 – 640?) and ETH/BTC (~0.042 – 0.046?) which seems more plausible for my posited H1 2023 crash give my posited, repeating megaphone and E.W.C..

Comment:

Typo: which seems more plausible delayed until posited H1 2023 crash given my posited

Comment:

ADA/BTC appears to have bottomed, is breaking out and after incoming bounce probably will not come back lower than 0.0000225. Multi-month upside is 0.000038 or 0.00006. Short-term bull trap bounce upside to top of recent range 0.000024 – 0.0000246.

Thus I expect a +33 – 35% bull trap bounce from ~0.465 to ~0.62 next week, with perhaps a lower low in August perhaps $0.39 – 0.40.

Upside for a posited December top is $1.96 – $3.10 for ~50 – 140% leverage on BTC:

Comment:

Typo: Why do you posit that the December 2̶0̶1̶9̶{2018} bottom can’t repeat

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This gives me confidence that my 1.5 to 2.4 times the expected gain for ADA as compared to BTC is correct. Some more obscure altcoins likely to have 3+ leverage on BTC going into this posited Q4 rally:

The real ALTCOIN dominance - Exclude Stablecoins!

Comment:

@Eric Krown Crypto you are very likely correct to expect a decline to $5k, but your timing is likely wrong. That will most likely come in H1 2023. Your Accumulation/Distribution will bottom in October but realize it is a signal that has historically lagged price, i.e. the price will already be in a bullish trajectory by October. Specifically regarding the question of whether BTC will bottom in the vicinity of current low, I want to make you aware of an important point I have been making publicly on my trading view since summer 2021, which is that the Elliot Wave #2 which ended with the corona dump in March 2020 retraced more than 61.8% of wave #1. Most people do not realize that this creates a terminal impulse condition which requires wave #4 to retrace below the top of wave #1 (i.e. below ~$13.9k). Most people are unaware of this Elliot Wave trivia — I had to search extensively to find the information. Within a terminal impulse condition all five Elliot Waves will have an A-B-C pattern, not just the corrective waves 2 and 4. So if BTC bottoms above $13.9k, then we know this correction from the November 2021 ATH was only wave A, thus there would follow a bounce B, then much later a deeper correction C. My measurements indicate that bull trap wave B would end approximately December at ~$47 to 53k. Then the crash would be in H1 2023 to ~$5k. Whereas, if BTC retraces now to below $13.9k, then it would mean wave #4 is complete and thus wave #5 would result in a new ATH in 2023. I have charted this on my public trading view. Actually in summer 2021, I identified a strange megaphone-like pattern comprising the price action from the summer 2019 high $13.9k to the corona dump. I publicly posited at that time even before the second ATH in 2021 that the megaphone pattern would repeat. And the megaphone pattern is repeating! Thus indications are that wave #4 will not complete now and instead there will be bullish move to ~$50k in Q4 which is a fractal pattern repeat of the move from November 2019 to the February 2020 high before the corona dump. Note there was a double bottom in November 2019 and thus I agree with you that after the current bounce, Bitcoin will come back down to make a slightly higher or lower low perhaps in August. If I am correct then after the bounce in Q4 to ~$50k to complete wave B, then BTC will make an insane dump mimicking the corona dump which will be wave C of wave 4 dropping from ~$50k to ~$5k (perhaps in vertical plunge similar to March 2020). I hope this information helps you. I do not want you to get caught off guard by these possibilities. The methods you use are also very helpful and appreciated. Note I am not interested in being an influencer. I am a block chain developer and master computer programmer. Been programming since 1978. So please do not think I am trying to steal any of your thunder, ride your coat tails, nor am I seeking free promotion — I do not need it. You work very hard to build your subscriber base. My gosh a video nearly every day for 4 years? Kudos.

Btw, I also note confluence $15.5 – $16.2k such as Fib retracement levels, 300 WMA, and your Accumulation/Distribution average decline.

Comment:

@Eric Krown Crypto I will elaborate a bit now on why I think sub-$15k will not be hit until after a bounce to ~$50k. Didn’t want to cram all my thoughts in my previous comment. Firstly because there’s so much exasperation, negativity and fear right now, so the market will do the opposite of the what the herd expects. Obviously we do not have the cathartic capitulation yet, but much better to wreck the herd by first a bounce to $50k so they FOMO in expecting a new ATH, then slam the price down from $50k to $5k with another corona-dump-like vertical drop. Btw, I have deep technological knowledge about an attack coming against Bitcoin and so that might be the cause of the posited, future vertical drop that will fleece most everyone in crypto as they will not be expecting it. The posited incoming bounce to ~$50k is likely to be driven by the S&P and Nasdaq also experiencing a significant bull trap rally due to the fact that inflation will roll over and print maybe 6% in September, the Fed will slow down or even pause rate hikes due to the threat of a recession. This will cause the stock markets to go bananas with a massive short squeeze. Also the Demonrats (democrats) needs this respite for their November 2022 midterm elections aspirations (at least another plausible deniability excuse to rig and steal it again), thus they are going to temporarily back off the crap they (the Bolsheviks and Neocons who rigged and stole the 2020 election) have been doing to intentionally destroy the supply chain and make energy more expensive. But after the election they will make their next move to force Russia to escalate and invade the Sulwaki corridor in Lithuania. Expect $200+ oil, inflation skyrocketing again in 2023, while the global economy falls into a Greater Recession (than 2008). So the black swan corona-like event coming in Q1 2023 is probably Russia versus NATO in Lithuania. There really is order in chaos, if you do extensive research as I do.

Comment:

@otwa2113, the {posited} key w̶a̶s̶{will be if I am consistently proven correct and we can back test my methods}…

As for marketing, you might want to consider partnering to offer your models on an established YTuber’s channel such as Eric Krown Crypto. He works with a programmer and already has an elaborate online and mobile app trading system along with a large subscriber base. You presumably don’t want to have to post daily videos for two to four years to establish the following he has, nor likely do you have someone who can provably succeed in the video marketing format as well as someone who has already proven they can. Your time and effort is presumably best applied elsewhere than duplicating his proven success. Yeah be wary of those out-of-band fractals that pop up and thwart your ostensibly localized perspective expectations. W.r.t. to BTC at least it appears to me that the low of December 2018 and the low of November 2019 are topologically related to the current, posited bottoming process — they both came back down one more time before liftoff.

Comment:

Could BTC go to $55k by August 12? Wtf!!! Look at what Crypto Zombie is pointing out if pastes the 2018 crash and bottom on current. If this happens does it mean price comes back down below $13.9k in September and then we are going to a new ATH by December or Q1 2023? This is insane.

Comment:

I measured out the timing and ranges for this crazy posited scenario! Actually it may make sense because (as FX Evolution pointed out) bonds are pricing in that the Fed will be forced to ease significantly sometime between April and September, 2023 although this would be highly volatile and extreme. Gareth Soloway also mentioned that timing in Crypto Zombie’s video. The rally after the Nov 2022 midterm U.S. elections could be if Demonrats lose control of the Congress. The 2023 crash could be the recession the Fed will cause.

Comment:

For ETH this crazy scenario is posited to outpeform BTC slightly (to ~$2088) until Aug 6 (when BTC hits ~$35k), but then severely underperform while BTC goes for the ~$55k nosebleed price. Subsequently ETH declining to the ~$840 target I had previously mentioned before rallying up to ATH in 2023 before crashing anew into the aforementioned ~$360 abyss. This seems to correlate well with the relative ETH performance at the posited corresponding junctures March 2019 and October 2019.

Comment:

@otwa2113, often ‘mad’ scientist (aka ‘nut’) is a compliment. I don’t doubt that you’re very competent in your specialization. I hope I have time remaining in my life to become more conversant in that domain. Maximum division-of-labor is virtuous and maybe it’s not my destiny because I’m not quite a genius (if we believe standardized tests) thus to be a polymath probably slightly beyond my grasp. I’m rationally skeptical though of your current predictions, which can perhaps be summarized as, “when in doubt, zoom out.” The philosophy of math is also interesting, e.g. the tension with Godel’s incompleteness. I hope you have or will make some interesting discoveries. Good luck.

Comment:

Alternative superimpositions of that pattern on the BTC chart (that don’t fit as perfectly) but they all lose the quality of the fractal pattern repeat which is inside the cyan colored rectangle from 2019 where the price made two drives back up to the posited overhead resistance trend line of the posited megaphone pattern, before plummeting into the March 2020 corona abyss.

Comment:

In the original scenario, we could imagine the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator might possibly cross twice, for the posited second bottom after the egregious slingshot bounce to $50+k:

Other scenarios:

Comment:

Confusing as patterns may rhyme but don’t repeat exactly. Can’t be sure if have drawn trend lines in the correct position until ex post facto, bcz what might look like a relevant pattern artifact in the present can have a changing interpretation in the future.

For example in this interpretation if I accept the purple scenario then I must draw the overhead resistance of the posited megaphone lower with lower slope nearly horizontal. We can conclude that very likely eventually up to two drives to the top of the posited megaphone and it may be only to ~$35k, but that rally could be anytime from now to months from now and probably the latter with a lower low first after rallying to perhaps $23 – 25k. OTOH the second ATH was higher than in 2019, so perhaps the rallies will be higher as I originally posited. Low likelihood of an imminent rally now to ~$50k and especially not until making a lower low (after perhaps bouncing first):

Comment:

If correct to topologically correlate current to both (i.e. tweening or mixture of) the bottom Dec 2018 and the posited, repeating megaphone from 2019, then the only reasonably likely conclusions I can form are:

1. Bounces will be greater than prior megaphone bcz still in a bull market (as was the case from 2018 bottom) unlike prior megaphone.
2. Lower low maybe incoming before rally to top of megaphone.
3. Rally to top of megaphone likely months from now.
4. Very significant bounce likely before rally to top of megaphone but could decline significantly first (perhaps not lower low).

Comment:

Here’s the same for ETH and ADA.

Structure and timing of posited megaphone won’t be more clarified until rally up to top again.

Conclusion though is that altcoins are going to out perform BTC to the upside unlike in 2019, bcz likely still in a bull market unlike 2019, as also evidenced by more bullish BTC pair charts. BTC.D was deceiving me because it includes stable coins and stable coin dominance has been rising during the correction.

Also the final top may be in Q4 2023 with Fed easing summer 2023. ANYONECANSPEND maybe in 2024.

Comment:

Nasdaq and ADA have two drives of unconfirmed bullish RSI divergence on daily and (Nasdaq only one drive on) weekly! Confirmed bearish RSI divergence on 4 hourly which may or may not have fully played out already. On the verge of a breakout soon or imminently. I’m not implying ADA couldn’t come back down to $0.39 or slightly lower, but the next Fib retracement down at $0.24 seems implausible. Nasdaq could possibly come down first to make a lower low.

ETH had confirmed 4 hourly bullish RSI divergence on June 18, but that bounce has played out. Has unconfirmed, bearish RSI divergence on the daily, although could proceed to the much higher level for the next such divergence.

Spot BTC same as ETH except no daily RSI divergence, but will if not over $32k upon another significant move up. CME Bitcoin chart has 4 hourly bearish but may have played out. Has one drive of bullish RSI divergence on the daily. BTC has a bullish projection to at least to $23k on CME and ~$25k on the spot BTC chart.

Yet the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator will cross on Wed, July 13 when the expected hotter CPI report is released (but maybe no hotter than expected). The dollar is surging again today, but has bearish RSI divergence on the weekly. VIX is in a downward channel with no definitive reversal bias.

All of July the dollar rallied to new highs but risk on markets also rallied to higher highs than on June 30. This strength might indicate that the bottom has formed already. This last blow off top in the dollar is causing the markets to pause, but not crash. Once the dollar declines the markets will rally intensely.

Comment:

I’m calling a bottom already. Might come back down to the 285 WMA again. The ~$17.5k bottom was very close to the $17.2k 0.786 non-log Fib retracement if measured from 2018 low and $17.8k if measured from 2020 low.

Likely to get a bounce anytime up to the cyan, 150 WMA which is currently ~$28k.

Ron Walker is too focused on the struggle get back over the 200 WMA which is currently ~$22.6k. Okay maybe get rejected at 200 WMA back down to 285 WMA at $17.6k ($17.9k by August). Or maybe up to $25 – 28k first. Upside potential is 2 to 3 times downside risk, even short-term if bottom can’t be lower than $17.6k.

Ron Walker is focused on the 300 WMA currently $16.8k:

But why what level, as it has never been hit in the past? There’s a 0.5 log-scaled Fib retracement $16.4k if measured from 2020 low. And perhaps slightly stronger horizontal support. So if that would be the potential lower low target, then upside and downside are more balanced near-term. Medium-term upside potential is much greater regardless.

I don’t expect lower than $16.4k at least not after rally significantly up to the (t.b.d.) top of the posited megaphone.

I wouldn’t take on leverage yet. But it is time to have positioned some of dry powder long. As the facts evolve, then can scale in more.

Comment:

Crypto Crew University sums it up concisely and make sure you listen to his conclusion at the end. Essentially when everyone is afraid and expecting lower lows, then Bitcoin will do the opposite. If everyone turns uber bullish on a significant bounce, then probably coming back down. Remember the $28k bottom in summer 2021, most of us thought it would go lower, so BTC did the opposite.

The bearish case Steve presents is relevant for the ultimate, eventual conclusion of the posited megaphone pattern. But for the near-term and medium-term, the markets are oversold and a short squeeze beckons.

(Warning: Everyone Is WRONG About When Bitcoin Bottom – This Will Happen Instead)

Comment:

There is a lot of capital waiting to pounce if Bitcoin drops to $10k. I don’t think it is possible to bring it down to those prices unless confidence in Bitcoin has been threatened and/or there is a massive liquidity crisis. I just do not see that as plausible in 2022. Maybe in 2023 or 2024.

A wick to $13.9k maybe but any sustained drop that severely breaches $13.9k, would be difficult in the current environment.

Comment:

(Crypto Zombie)

Comment:

My posited, bullish, inverse H&S has probably been invalidated. We’ve either bottomed at the current price, or heading down to make a lower low at least below $18.7k and in that case more likely towards the ~$16.8k 300 WMA and $16.6k 0.5 log-scaled Fib retracement level. And probably tomorrow as the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator will cross on the monthly CPI report. Any where above $14.9k remains in play except that if the RSI makes a lower low then we no bullish RSI divergence will be formed. Also the trend line supports on CME don’t support below ~$16.9k expect on a daily wick, unless of course the low is over the weekend. Luckily I was respecting the Pi Cycle Bottom so didn’t FOMO buy the $22.5k bull trap, nor significantly buy on the way down yet.

BTC Spot:

CME:

Comment:

Caution ADA may have at least $0.39 down side if breach current horizontal support (to make a lower low with another drive of bullish RSI divergence):

Ditto ETH horizontal support $1050, down side <$1030 or low $800s.

Comment:

VIX is also at a key level. Either a break out (which is bearish for markets) or it has topped at the top of the channel resistance:

Comment:

At this moment, ETH, BTC and ADA all at critical support levels on the charts I posited to the updates to my published idea. If breached to the down side then likely lower lows tomorrow which is the Pi Cycle Bottom cross day for BTC and also the expected hotter CPI report. BTC and ETH were lacking bullish RSI divergence on the daily, along with an overhead resistance at the top of the bearish rising channel which BTC respected for the bull trap decline from ~$22.5k as I anticipated in the updates to my published idea. I remain open-minded to either scenario but at least I did not FOMO buy the bull trap and can now buy at the current critical support levels with a tight stop loss (SL).

> “Failure to do so can find support at supply line, but if that doesn't hold it will likely tend toward 3480 - which is D @ t=0. This is 3 standard deviations away from average price during accumulation period. Whereas resistance at 4204 (S at t=0) is only 2 S.D. This was designed as such by big money over the past month, probability in favor on big run from here.”

Some YTuber mentioned yesterday that, “Wall Street has been adding shorts.” I didn’t verify. 3480 would be the perfect level to fulfill the lower low we need on BTC and ETH to form proper, bullish RSI divergences. The Bitcoin Pi Cycle Bottom indicator has been correct twice before and will signal tomorrow thus I’m still expecting a lower low on the release of the hotter CPI report as I have been since I sold the $22.5k Bitcoin bull trap at the top of the bearish, rising channel.

Comment:

> “This was designed as such by big money over the past month, probability in favor on big run from here.”

In some scenarios the big money hides their actions out-of-band (e.g. futures markets) and/or is manipulating higher to stimulate greater fools who they will slaughter with a bull trap. This is one reason I am skeptical of your methods. To find the order in chaos, you probably need a much more holistic data net and model. It’s not the math that’s at fault.

Google search for ‘site:armstrongeconomics.com’ term ‘Phibro’

Do People Hear Only What They Want to Hear? by Martin Armstrong

“When you are the largest trader in a narrow market, they watch everything you do. If I was to sell, they assume the whole lot is being sold and jump in front. You suddenly find yourself trapped. I was a witness to the Hunt collapse. They couldn’t get out of the market at any price. The dealers were selling in front of them taking short positions looking to buy back when the Hunts were in a state of panic dumping at any price.

I learned early on that to professionally hedge, one had to navigate the brokers. The only way to deal with them, was to play one-off-against-another, use related markets to confuse and hide your strategy, or else fall prey to the Investment Bankers. In other words, if you had a large position of gold that you wanted to sell, you go to a broker asking for a market in silver. He gives you a quote, and you then buy taking what will become an intentional loss. You go back to the same broker and now ask for a quote on the real market you are trying to sell – gold. He will anticipate you intend to buy because of the silver trade, shifting the quotes to pick up extra profit assuming you are a buyer. When you sell the gold, you just got a higher bid, you are out of the position, and he is scrambling to cover with other brokers. If you hit all the brokers the same way at precisely the same time, they are all now short, and are trapped trying to get out selling back gold that they just bought from you trying to play you for the fool.”

Comment:

Dollar chart.

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Breakout on the VIX!

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My downside target for ADA is $0.39 assuming BTC doesn’t make a lower low. My upside targets are $1.60, $2, and $3+.

My upside targets for ETH are $3350 ranging up to $5500. ADA has 33 – 80% more upside leverage over BTC than ETH.

Ron Walker (The Crypto Trader) and his proprietary momentum indicator which has never been wrong on Bitcoin yet, is adamant that very likely risk-on markets make another capitulation move down, even if they bounce again first. Ron points out still have the July Fed rate hike again (and with 9.1% CPI perhaps the consensus expectations will increase for a 100 basis points instead of 75 spooking the markets) and the earnings reports over the next 2 weeks may spook markets with downside future guidance.

Spot Bitcoin has not yet formed a bullish RSI divergence (almost did yesterday) but CME has had one. Some altcoins already have it and ADA almost made another drive to a bullish RSI divergence yesterday.

OTOH, when I do projections (even employing the BTC to S&P ratio) I compute that either already bottomed or the projections for another leg down are ~$12k.

So I am tempted to say we’ve already bottomed because I do not think BTC is going below ~$13.9k before a very significant rally up to the top of the posited broadening wedge (aka megaphone) pattern.

Yet markets take a while to bottom, because the herd is still very fearful. Bitcoin probably needs a prematurely aborted move down to instill more confidence that downside momentum is waning. Note if BTC heads to even just a marginally lower low (e.g. $16k), ADA could decline 10 cents (from $0.44) or more. That’s why I am hesitant to scale in quite yet. ADA is probably at least going to hit $1.60 if not double that on the significant rally into Q4 2022 or Q1 2023. Hope I can buy ADA <$0.35 instead of >$0.40.

The S&P has a very obviously strong support ~3520. Although some argue that everyone thinks it will bottom there so it probably will bottom higher. Yet the herd probably thinks we are in a bear market with 3200 or lower in play, as many expect BTC to hit $13k or lower.

The wick breach of final uptrend support on crypto was bought yesterday in spite of the unexpected 9.1% CPI report. This indicates to me buyers are starting to sense the bottom is near and almost causes me to panic buy. Even though that moved prices back up above final uptrend support, I suspect there is not enough of the herd following those brave souls and final support will give way for the cathartic release we need to form the final bullish divergences and bottom. I could be wrong and the bottom may already be behind us.

The Pi Cycle Bottom indicator crossed yesterday and on one of the previous instances note it crossed two days before the actual 37% capitulation move down for a bottom. The weekend is incoming for spot crypto, which is typically bearish on Saturday evening (EST).

Comment:

S&P premarket is breaking down! Here is the S&P chart I diagrammed weeks ago showing the strong support.

Comment:

Armstrong Ethereum’s monthly Forecast Array chart published on his May 20, 2022 blog Can Cryptocurrencies Survive WWIII? (←click for chart), expected a Long-term and Direction Change bottom in June (after the Direction Change in May for the crash), followed by (in a bottoming context presumably) a slingshot stomp down and then a breakout to the upside Panic Cycle in July, then a pullback from Sep, and then rally from Oct to Jan with a January Long-term top. This concurs with my favored published scenario for a BTC rebound to ~$50k by Q1 2023.

His private blog Bitcoin the Biggest Ponzi Scheme in History? contains a quarterly forecast array for Bitcoin, suggesting that July moves up from and/or is the low, Oct to Jan will be the relief rally bull trap. He says the monthly forecast array has a Panic Cycle in August — presumably a slingshot following on Ethereum‘s July. He says Monthly Bearish Reversal $10370 not yet elected, thus can be strong rebounds and wild volatility.

Comment:

Fed Pivot Indicator shows that even if the Fed does not pivot, then the 5YR yield will drop as continued hawkishness from Fed will exacerbate probabilities of a recession. So we are at the end of this downturn in risk markets.

(click to see chart)

Comment:

PPI 11.3% inflation also came is much higher than expected after yesterday’s 9.1% CPI shocker:

Yesterday probabilities spiked for a 100 basis points July Fed Funds hike, but they moderated about half-way back down today:

A Fed governor spoke saying he still preferred a 75 basis hike:

“Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said he still favored a 75 basis point rate hike when policy makers meet later this month versus a 100 basis point move that investors had started to price in after Wednesday's hotter-than-expected consumer-price index reading. Waller left the door open to a larger hike, however, depending on how strong retail sales and housing data are ahead of the Fed meeting.”

My opinion is that uncertainty breeds caution and there will be a selloff tomorrow sending the weekend to bearish mode for crypto. I could be wrong about this and a support trend line on CME Bitcoin indicates maybe end of next week for the $18.1k gap fill.

Comment:

Hmm. Maybe bottomed already?

Comment:

The risk of a significant bounce is growing.

Comment:

Bottom at least until the apocalyptic crash:

NASDAQ to S&P500 ratio on 15year Support. Will it finally break?

Comment:

Bitcoin (BTC) on-Chain Analysis: Market Cap Falls Below Realized Cap

Comment:

Looks like the scenario I had identified with the spot BTC chart indicating a bull trap rally back up to the ~$23.2k top of posited channel (perhaps by Monday or Tuesday) which is also a key Fib retracement level (possibly a spike to as high as ~$26k) and the CME indicating rolling over after that perhaps into next weekend to come back to at least fill that $18.1k CME gap, may play out given likelihood that commodities will likely make one more bounce:

(URGENT UPDATE: Another Stock Market CRASH Likely As Oil Forms A Bullish Hammer Off the 200 Day MA)

Comment:

> “@shelby3 @OTWA2113 I’ve seen this man “otwa” walk on water (he’s my cousin)... and now you have too.”

@JabezDolz, I still think the bounce will not reach his higher targets and it will come down next week. Oil is printing bullish divergences and may initiate a relief rally this week. I do not doubt that your cousin is very talented in his STEM field. Unfortunately data scientists and mathematicians for example (actually most ‘experts’) overestimate the utility of their field such as in this case when applied to natural, chaotic systems. Man is not and will never be God nor omniscient. I am always wary of people who worship another human being. None of us walk on water.

Comment:

This confirms my expectation of a bounce now, following by a lower low (or at least a significant pullback) bottoming process. Looks like the hash ribbons indicator will generate a Buy signal in August.

(Bitcoin Macro Price Analysis - Best Case Scenario For July )

Comment:

This bear flag is also one of the scenarios I am looking at in the charts. With a top either at current price or one more leg up to ~$23 – 24k. He has BTC coming back down to ~$16k by early August.

(Bitcoin Pumping! The Big Short is Coming!)

Comment:

VIX looks like it is coiling for another spike up to a lower high.

Dollar probably to explode higher again:

Oil bullish divergence and starting to head back up:

Comment:

ADA/BTC and ETH/BTC likely hit the top of this bull trap:

ADA broke out but it can rollover to a lower low perhaps $0.365 by early August and still remain above the descending support of the wedge it broke up out of:

ETH back down to $800 or $1000?

Comment:

IMPORTANT: My target for the bottom is $16.6 – $16.8k for early Aug which OPTICALARTdotCOM also expects, but he also has a compelling case for continuing lower to $10k by September. Because he thinks CPI is going much higher and interest rates not yet done spiking.

I can find slight alterations of his interpretation to support my thesis{1}, which I have updated and will post as a follow-up.

{1} e.g. Treasuries are at a support line on his chart and his horizontal red line could be slightly descending allowing for a later intersection.

(Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator is WRONG! Bitcoin bottom is $10k)

Comment:

@OPTICALARTdotCOM there may be a spike bull trap to ~$43k by Nov or Dec, from ~$16k in Aug or Sep, before the move down to fill the $9.8k CME gap in Mar to May 2023. Then a rally to ~$58k by Mar 2024, then a crash to below $5k by Aug 2024. This is based on the expanding fractal pattern from 2019 to 2020 I had identified in summer of 2021 which led me to expect a severe decline but I got confused by the higher high in Q4 2021. I have returned to this fractal pattern which more or less agrees with you thesis. There are actually two sets of consistent parallel lines you may need to pay attention to with one set having less slope than the ones you annotated (drawn through the left shoulder and the spike low on Feb 5, 2018), thus maybe providing for the temporary bottom ~$16k. Thus the Pi Cycle Bottom could be correct if interpreted as being near to the bottom, as it could flip back up and then trigger again for the 2023 low. I can find slight alterations of your interpretation to support my thesis, e.g. Treasuries are at a support line on your chart and your horizontal red line could be slightly descending allowing for a later intersection.

Meet Kevin identified that inflation is spreading out into all sectors because consumers are still spending and thus everyone has pricing power. Oil is heading back up for a bull trap rally. Dollar will spike anew. VIX is coiling for another lower high spike up.

Comment:

I have reinterpreted my thesis to factor in OPTICALARTdotCOM’s points, but I have higher levels for the lows and his $10k low comes later in Q2 2023. The Fib retracement measurements are consistent on my interpretation, not his. I think he put his major descending red support lines (which are light blue on my chart) in the wrong position and there are two slopes to consider (his and another one). I am gaining confidence in my chart now!

Bitcoin fell down out of the giant ascending wedge. Absolute catastrophe coming in the markets H2 2024.

Comment:

Another reason the risk-on markets will be spooked again is inflation is becoming sticky and there are factors which can continue to drive CPI higher even if oil and commodities decline (not to mention we appear to be seeing the start of a bounce in those). Also the implications of this are depressing. We have an inflation spiral ahead. Additionally California will send out the stimulus checks in October and that’s also when Biden will stop draining the U.S. petroleum reserve.

(3 Reasons why the Fed will "Paul Volcker" CRASH Markets.)

Comment:

All crypto and stock markets heading to the extreme tops of their ranges, unless they break out which seems unlikely based on the analysis I already shared. Looks like the time to go short with a stop loss if there is a breakout to the upside above the diagrammed extreme top of range.

Comment:

Prepare to go short:

Comment:

Incoming… (click link below for chart)

(Bitcoin's Bear Flag Warns Of Another CRASH Move Before Forming The BTC Bottom PT 2 Of 2)

Comment:

Interesting insight, listen for a couple of minutes. Sounds like the insiders are preparing for another leg down…

(Last Chance To Buy The Crypto Dip? Exact Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch!)

Comment:

I closed my short position. The breakout on the S&P and Nasdaq is suggesting more upside on this bounce. I am too sleepy to share my charts right now. Later.

Comment:

Since I went to sleep, the Nasdaq (12478 and 0.786 Fib), S&P (3975 and 0.618 Fib) and Bitcoin ($24.2k and 0.5 Fib) have rallied to the lowest level of my projection for the top of this bounce. Both may have more upside (12880 complete retracement, 4040–4080 to 0.786 Fib and $24.9 – $25.7k or even $26k to the 0.618 Fib).

Comment:

Watched the latest from Meet Kevin, FX Evolution, OPTICALARTdotCOM and Crypto Banter. Earnings have been decent so far, thus giving a lift to the markets. General thesis is BTC might pullback to $22k or $23k, then perhaps another move to at least $25k, maybe FOMO to $26 – 27k. Dollar and oil bouncing a bit here, but may come down further. But looks like overall this bounce in the markets is a bull trap.

Comment:

Unlike in the 1970s, spikes in price inflation aren’t leading to massive unemployment. Instead more like before the Dotcom and 2008 crash. Duh! Because Westerners can pay the higher prices as they’re heavily invested in assets that have gone up more than inflation, e.g. stocks and housing. The massive unemployment won’t happen until the massive implosion of investment assets. Also the Western governments are subsidizing those who are not invested.

(Why Stocks are Completely Disconnected From Reality.)

Comment:

> > “Stock markets and crypto are about to roll over and crash.”
>
> “@shelby3, respectfully disagree”

@otwa2113, I have been agreeing that the markets were overdue for a rally and for example when we first started discussing this some weeks ago, I mentioned that that $28k could upside for Bitcoin. Yet all signs continue to point to this being a bull trap. One of the important factors is that during rallies off a bottom typically everyone remains bearish. We have many people turning bullish now. Also we have bearish divergences forming on the daily and we have significant levels of overhead resistance. Earnings (e.g. banks and Netflix) have been less worse than some feared sustaining this rally. Crude oil and VIX are exhibiting bullish RSI divergences. The dollar might first pullback to trend line support 104 if 106 was not the pullback bottom.

Comment:

@otwa2113, to clarify it’s your original thesis of a massive blast through all overhead resistance to egregious levels in such a short time frame that I am disagreeing with and which thus far has failed. I never disagreed that a bull trap rally could occur. I was unclear whether the rally would come before or after a test of lows and obviously it is the former by now:

Comment:

Refining my interpretation, I am expecting S&P to top on this bounce ~4060–4080, Nasdaq 12900 and BTC ~$26.6k. If the Nasdaq continues up to ~13500, then S&P to 4140–4200 and BTC to $28.8–30.3k.

Comment:

My current thesis is rally up to the reddish line, then drop back down to the bottom of the bluish channel. If the bluish channel is valid, then need more than one touch on the bottom.

Comment:

VIX could come all the way down to 21.5 over next 2 days before heading back up. Seems too soon in percentage towards apex of symmetric triangle so annotated, for VIX to break down to lower than 21.5.

Comment:

Wondering what could bring the markets back down in terms of news, given consumers are still spending and earnings have been less worse than expected. Perhaps more hawkish talk from the Fed meeting July 27, GDP confirming a recession on July 28, worse than expected PCE inflation July 29, and Mich consumer sentiment (which is mostly driven by inflation, c.f. that GoT video I linked today) worse than expected. The market rallied on the worse than expected CPI report, yet PCE is more forward looking. What if the Fed shocks with a 100 basis points hike? There were signs in the CPI report that inflation was broadening and the Fed may fear a wage-price spiral and can’t allowing inflation expectations to become anchored, given that the consumer is still spending. Since there is no Fed meeting in August, Fed may need to be more proactive!

Goldman Sachs might be wrong, and Fed may have its focus on the consumer and the wealth effect instead of on oil:

Comment:

(click for chart)

“If the Fed pushes for more favorable policies or guidance, recession fear eased, and equities bottom from here, then we may very likely have already seen the #Bitcoin cycle bottom as well.

Next downside target remains at $15-16k #BTC provided recession & QT fear continues.”

Comment:

(click for chart)

“After bouncing off the golden trendline support, $ETH/#BTC also at monthly high here:

In the best case, if #ETH2 serves as an event meaningful enough to trump US risk-asset macro, ETH could resume in a new bulltrend like 2017. Otherwise it may sell off to golden trendline again.”

Comment:

TSLA already up to 773 in after hours. The earnings report beat expectations significantly on EPS (earnings per share).

Comment:

(Bitcoin drop to $16,500 within the next 10 days?)

Comment:

(S&P 500 Will Likely Peak Within 2 Days Followed By Another Stock Market CRASH -SPY QQQ IWM Investing)

Comment:

TRADING SUGGESTION: I bought $22.6k, sold $23.3k. I am buying again now from $22.8k down. I think there will be one more leg up for crypto.

Comment:

Snap Chat reported significant decline in advertising revenues and the stock was down -25%. Remember Snap chat was the canary in the coal mine for this market downturn. Twitter reports tomorrow. Tech earnings could turn very bad next week.

ADA has what may be a bearish H&S forming. After studying the BTC, ADA/BTC, ETH and ETH/BTC, my guess is BTC will top $23.6k or double-top. BTC maybe down to $22.7k first. ADA $0.515 to double-top $0.54. ETH might hit $1700. I can't rule out ADA to $0.61 but will be unexpected at this juncture.

Comment:

Okay ADA and BTC only up to $0.515 and $23.7k as expected and back down again. Looks like a possible top to me, unless there will be a final rally over the weekend or on Monday/Tuesday, as Ron Walker is discussing as the two possibilities for this top and incoming retest of the lows.

Comment:

(Stock Market CRASH Now In Progress! IWM, SPY & QQQ Have Likely Peaked Friday As Predicted- Investing)

Comment:

(The highest bitcoin can go before next major drop!)

I think Bitcoin might still make a higher high $25 – 27k.

Comment:

> “I think Bitcoin might still make a higher high $25 – 27k.”

If $21.5k holds.

(Bitcoin Beware Of This Trap On Price Today)

Comment:

One final leg down ahead…

Click for the chart:

(Dumb Money Is About To Get Crushed Again In The Stock Market... )

Comment:

I’m still leaning for one more rally perhaps to or just shy of a double top.

(Last bitcoin pump before major crash! Exact top found for drop!)

Comment:

This video makes strong points that crypto is not going much lower. The next wick down perhaps to a marginally lower low, should be bought with confidence. I don’t know how reconcile this video with my expectation for a low lower than $13.9k by Q1 2023. Perhaps his purple Fib channel will have rolled over to a lower level by then.

(Warning: #Bitcoin Pi Cycle Bottom JUST FLASHED – You Should Do This Now)

Comment:

Will there be a rally from this level? Note that do not yet have bullish RSI divergence on the daily, need to go lower for that. Have hidden bullish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly. Could bounce a bit from here, but likely still going lower eventually.

Comment:

I am going short right now. S&P hit a higher high right to the top of the wedge I had anticipated. BTC made a lower high. Nasdaq gapped up today to a double top, with bearish RSI divergence. Maybe the markets continue rallying but looks like exhaustion to me. Dollar and crude oil appear to be firming a temporary bottom. Fed reiterated today they will continue to fight inflation. There is often a rally on the day of Fed meeting raise, but this looks like a last gasp of bulls.

“The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it would not flinch in its battle against the most intense breakout of inflation in the United States since the 1980s even if that means a "sustained period" of economic weakness and a slowing jobs market.“

{…}

“While Powell said he did not think a recession would be needed to fix the problem this time, he acknowledged that the economy was slowing and would likely need to slow more for the Fed to bring the pace of price increases back to earth.“

Comment:

BTC has divergences but the 4 hourly might want to make another push up to form a more definitive bearish RSI divergence.

Comment:

Absolute top ~$23.5k:

(bitcoin pump to this exact target before major crash!)

Comment:

Follow-up. Essentially he is backsplaining why his prior video failed.

(Bitcoin topped out! We caught this top to the damn dollar!)

Comment:

S&P has bearish daily and weekly RSI divergence, but could rally more before declining. The S&P has hit every projected target on my chart thus far, breaking out above all posited downward sloping channels. Thus why wouldn’t it continue up to the next target ~4275 to form a potential inverse H&S at the posited red-colored neckline? Note it’s potentially sitting at strong overhead, horizontal resistance ~4140 though. The highest potential target is ~4500 on a breakout of all posited overhead resistance, so I don’t think that is likely before coming back down to at least form the posited right shoulder of posited inverted H&S. Note the June bottom had both daily and weekly bullish divergence on the S&P. The bottom could already been behind us.

Comment:

VIX is approaching what appears to be a critical bottom with weekly chart hidden, bullish RSI divergence same as May 21. If VIX explodes upwards, then stock markets will decline.

Comment:

Bitcoin is bumping up into significant overhead resistance. It barely made a higher high after significant decline unlike the S&P will rallied significantly after only a small decline. Looks like maximum upside may be ~$25.5k. Bitcoin has daily but only marginalized weekly hidden bearish RSI divergence. If Bitcoin clears overhead resistance it could go to $29 – 32k, but this would violate the 0.618 – 0.65 golden pocket Fib retracement both S&P and Nasdaq seem to projecting to.

And Nasdaq similar to S&P to form a inverted H&S by rallying to ~13500 (if not already at the neckline) before declining to form posited right shoulder? Nasdaq has borderline daily and weekly hidden, bearish RSI divergence but if went higher this would be more definitive.

Comment:

Spot Bitcoin never formed any bullish RSI divergences above a 4 hourly on the June bottom. CME formed a daily RSI divergence, but looks like it needs come back down and form another daily RSI divergence while also registering on the spot chart.

Upside to $38 – 45k for a precipitous rally to mirror Q4 2019, but perhaps after retesting the lows if the stock markets decline to form a right shoulder on their posited inverted H&S patterns.

That wick low $25.6k in May is probably overhead resistance, as were the lows before the drop in Q4 2019.

Alternative hypothesis is going to rally to ~$38k in August without any significant decline interim.

Comment:

But remember I had measured the posited repeating broadening wedge as not making that significant bull trap rally into late September but not until after after a decline in late August.

Also recall that I wrote on July 20, “My current thesis is rally up to the reddish line, then drop back down to the bottom of the bluish channel. If the bluish channel is valid, then need more than one touch on the bottom.”

Comment:

Dollar may fall further at least to 104.7 before a rally, so the stock markets and Bitcoin may have one more move up.

Crude oil looks to be catching a temporary bottom for a rally soon.

Comment:

(Bitcoin: The TA Says "Bull Trap", But Can We Trust It? In 24 Hours We Will Find Out (BTC))

Comment:

Posted the following update on my newest published idea, Fractals, fractals everywhere…

The H2 2019 fractal superimposed at the current scale. This is a rough approximation of what I am expecting to play out. I think there will be a slingshot stomp down wick to a lower low in August before a steep rally back up to the top of the posited broadening wedge by Sep/Oct.

Comment:

Two excellent, timely, pertinent videos making the bearish case to support my expectation for an incoming stomp down, slingshot, wick lower low for Bitcoin. Both can be viewed intelligibly on double-speed playback (and I skip forward past segments of Ron Walker’s redundant verbiage). For the first one from Ron Walker (aka The Crypto Trader), I disagree with him though that heading back up to ATHs so soon. Instead I think Bitcoin’s slingshot rally will not breach above ~$45k and subsequently will come back down falling out of the massive bearish wedge on his linked chart, which then becomes overhead resistance until 2026 or so!

Bitcoin CRASH Soon! BTC Is Likely About To CRASH To This Trendline To Form A Bottom At 14K To 15K

WARNING BITCOIN & ETHEREUM HOLDERS!! Bitcoin News Today & Ethereum Price Prediction (BTC & ETH)

Comment:

Another indicator in addition to the Pi Cycle Bottom has indicated the bottom was on June 18:

(Bitcoin Flashes Rare Signal Not Seen Since 2018 – You Need To Do This (Make More Money!))

Comment:

Why the S&P is likely to not make a lower low.

(Warning: The Kiss of Death Signal on the Markets | Alessio Rastani)

Comment:

Bitcoin might come down to ~$22.7k, then possibly another exhaustion leg up. I will be traveling after some sleep.

Comment:

Will Pelosi’s intentional provocation of China rattle the markets?

Pelosi Is Expected to Visit Taiwan, Ramping Up US-China Tensions

Or concern about possible upcoming hawkish statements from Fed officials or the Fed inflation expectations report on Aug. 8 or CPI report on Aug. 10?

US Stocks Swing as Fed Pivot Seems Less Likely: Markets Wrap

Comment:

IMPORTANT: The Four Mysteries of Pelosi’s Troublesome Taiwan Trip

Comment:

Expect fireworks soon!

Pelosi Provokes War with China

The Department of Defense will be forced to escort Pelosi to Taiwan, and China has blatantly said that this would be considered an aggressive act of war. “If US fighter jets escort Pelosi’s plane into Taiwan, it is invasion,” Hu Xijin of Global Times wrote on Twitter. “The has the right to forcibly dispel Pelosi’s plane and the US fighter jets, including firing warning shots and making tactical movement of obstruction. If ineffective, then shoot them down.”

Comment:

U.S. Navy deploys four warships east of Taiwan as Pelosi heads to Taipei

Four U.S. warships, including an aircraft carrier, were positioned in waters east of Taiwan on what the U.S. Navy called routine deployments on Tuesday amid Chinese anger over U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit the island.

The carrier USS Ronald Reagan had transited the South China Sea and was currently in the Philippines Sea, east of Taiwan and the Philippines and south of Japan, a U.S. Navy official told o Reuters.

Comment:

Maybe still another leg up in the ascending wedge? USDT dominance looks like it will break out soon or one more leg down?

(These Altcoins Are Setting Up For A Massive Bounce!)

That USDT dominance is in a bullish falling wedge! And we have bullish RSI divergence on the daily! The DXY has hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the daily and is in a falling wedge same as the VIX! Be wary of Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan inciting a military confrontation with China. That could be a massive bearish H&S on ETH. The symmetric wedges for some altcoins could be continuation patterns for incoming leg to lower lows!

Comment:

(This Chart SCARES Me – An HONEST Hot Take)

Agreed. I will tell you now what is likely to happen is come up to test ~$44k, then back down to $10k. Then the bull market will begin anew. As for this month, expect a retest of ~$20k but not likely a significantly lower low.

Comment:

One more ETH pullback before run?

← click for the chart
(Attention ETH Holders: Do This Right Now!)

Only a slight dip then rally into November? Or Steve @ CryptoCrew University may have this labeled incorrectly because the death cross was before the bottom. I have proposed adding a {?} label and this leads me to a different more sensible, Bitcoin Fib circle correlation and everything seems to fit perfectly.

(Attention ETH Holders: Do This Right Now!)

Steve may have an error in his labeling of #6. Notice the death cross occurred before the bottom previously but the posited June bottom occurred before the recent death cross. Also note that the rally since June looks similar to the fractal rally between #5 and #6 on the prior cycle. Thus I think a lower low for #6 is incoming in August or September.

Comment:

If don’t break down from the bearish wedge now, may have one more retest of $24 – 25k before the retest of lows.

Comment:

Yikes the ETH merge is incoming by perhaps Aug 12 or any day before that. Might have hiccups, cause a fork or be a sell the news event. Process will complete by maybe Sept 19.

(I’M GOING ALL IN FOR ETHEREUM!! HERE’S WHY….)

Comment:

It might get to $25k but the VIX has daily hidden and regular, bullish RSI divergence. The dollar and the 10Y have hidden bullish RSI divergence. The jobs report was too hot. If CPI comes in hot as well, down we go because the market will price in a 75 basis points Fed funds rate increase in September. The repeating 1-2-3-4-5-6 pattern for ETH as compared to the 2018 top and correction appears to be repeating suggesting another move down for ETH. Why are you so bullish on BTC when it is failing to move significantly higher? That is a rising bearish channel, more or less a bear flag.

Comment:

Finally have a bullish RSI divergence on the daily for the VIX, in addition to the hidden, bullish RSI divergence that has in place since July 21. VIX up, stock markets down.

Dollar has had hidden, bullish RSI divergence since July 28:

10Y Treasury rates have had also a massive, hidden bullish RSI divergence since July 28 although some are focused on the bearish H&S now backtesting the neckline:

But H&S patterns do sometimes fail with a partial move down and then a throwback.

Comment:

It’s possible ETH could drive higher to form an even more convincing hidden, bearish RSI divergence. But it already has it, plus multiple drives of bearish RSI divergence since July 16. And there’s a repeating pattern that suggests this bear trap bounce is nearing completion.

Comment:

Inverse H&S on ETH and BTC projecting up to $1960 and $24.4k respectively.

Comment:

Fed has been hinting at 75 basis points rise and that markets have not priced in yet:

(click for tweets)

Comment:

Maybe not a H&S on 10T Treasuries:

US10Y: Potentially Increasing Yield, Stronger Dollar Ahead?

Comment:

2YR Treasuries clearly bullish near-term heading to a higher high soon. They last peaked on June 14 along with the bottom in Bitcoin:

Comment:

Richard Heart was raving about Tornado Cash, lol.

Remember I said capital controls were coming and they would severely impact the cryptocosm. And they did this on the same day the FBI raided Trump’s mansion, resort home.

Now we found the potential cause of another leg down crash in crypto!

Oh my I did not think of this. As the centralized stable coins block funds, essentially backing for those is now free money for the proprietors of the stable coin, unless they expect some legal regime that require those funds be sent to someone (but how and how would anyone know which funds were stolen from whom if they were all mixed?). Thus this is the perfect scam. Launch a stablecoin, then comply with government sanctions to legally steal money!

Comment:

Note violating OFAC sanctions can result in a 30 year prison sentence. Note these sanctions only apply to U.S. persons, which is a reason I have positing we may eventually need jurisdictional arbitrage and surrogates.

Isn’t this essentially the end of crypto fungibility?

“github accounts of people who contributed to tornado repos just got deleted”

“As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of the entity above, Tornado Cash, that is in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons is blocked and must be reported to OFAC. In addition, any entities that are owned, directly or indirectly, 50 percent or more by one or more blocked persons are also blocked. All transactions by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of designated or otherwise blocked persons are prohibited unless authorized by a general or specific license issued by OFAC, or exempt. These prohibitions include the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any blocked person and the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person.”

Jerry Brito, executive director at blockchain research group Coin Center, however, threw cold water on the idea that the US Treasury would freely hand out sanctions to any address interacting with Tornado Cash moving forward.

“I would think that’s unlikely, and I’d be surprised if this would metastasize that quickly in those directions,” Brito told Blockworks. “It seems, from their previous statements, they are very specifically concerned about mixers, particularly those used by specific bad actors — North Korean hackers and ransomware attackers.”

“List of cryptocurrency addresses included as identifiers for Tornado Cash OFAC designation”

Comment:

@otwa2113, COIN popped right after Cathy Wood dumped after riding it and buying it all the way down, lol. Meet Kevin called the stock markets correctly getting out entirely on the bounce in early 2022 and he has been buying this likely bottom. Ditto many altcoins have been popping off as well. I agree with you that a huge surge is coming. I just don’t have the confidence you have that the surge will not be interrupted first by another drive towards the lows. How do you discern that the spike signals you are detecting are not manipulations to create pump cascades while piling on shorts in preparation for a crash precipitated by a black swan event? It’s difficult to imagine what that black swan event could be. Appears China is not going to do anything too rash as a reaction to the Pelosi Taiwan visit. We have the CPI report on tap for tomorrow which might come in hotter than expected, but 75 basis points in September was priced in by 67% after the hot jobs report on Friday. The OPAC sanctions against Tornada.cash today could have severe domino effects if entities start blocking funds and banning any derivative, tainted crypto. Could literally impact $billions or even more depending on how ridiculous taint will be extrapolated, but I doubt that such ridiculousness would be imminent?

@otwa2113, my methods also detected that. In one of my analyses I am expecting a vertical spike in Bitcoin to $39 – 44k but I can’t pinpoint the date. Perhaps it’s underway but I am wary of a fake out first akin to Oct 11, 2019 and the pullback in early 2019 before the launch. Armstrong’s AI Socrates has a Panic Cycle in the last week of August going into September. A Panic Cycle can often mean a thrust in price to one extreme and then a violent reversal — a slingshot. The current juncture in fractal correlation appears to be the end of 2018, start of 2019 bottom and October 2019. Also many altcoins have started to pop, as well many tech companies on the Nasdaq. The popcorn kettle is heating up.

Comment:

We have the same 4282 target but deriving from entirely different analyses. I am visualizing the possibility of an inverse H&S forming:

So far BTC and ETH have not confirmed the S&P’s move higher. YTuber FX evolution pointed out retail puts versus calls premium is at a very low level, indicating there will be a crash and the shorts will profit.

VIX is at the last line of criticial support with another more massive drive of bullish RSI divergence possibly forming on both daily and 4 hourly:

Comment:

The potential daily bullish RSI on the VIX appears to have been lost, so appears the weekly hidden, bullish RSI divergence is in play. But VIX could potentially come down to as low as ~16.30 before reversing allowing your scenario of a continuation of risk-on bullishness interim.

Comment:

Eric Crown Crypto has some statistical indicators that a large 20 – 40% move is imminent. We are waiting for the close of this day in 5 hours (i.e. UTC) to see if BTC is above or below the ~$23.5 – 23.7k level, which will give us ~85% probability for the likely direction of the incoming move.

Given the favorable CPI report today and breakdown in the posited bullish RSI divergence in the dollar, commodities and VIX, I am starting to believe the move might be to the upside. BTC has been stabbing at ~$24k three times and that appears to be a bullish, ascending triangle formation. The daily RSI could move much higher before hidden, bearish divergence forms. Once Bitcoin breaks above $24k decisively, then there is a clearly open field to $29+k, although possibly with a pit stop at ~$26k.

Martin Armstrong clarified his stance. His data driven AI model Socrates has for the DJIA a peak this week, then a reversal for 1 week, followed by a Panic Cycle in the week that starts Aug 22 with a potential second peak in the week that begins Aug 29. There’s also a Panic Cycle for September on the monthly DJIA Forecast Array with a peak and reversal of trend within or after September. Panic Cycles can be outside reversals (i.e. the period can make both a higher high and lower low than the previous period) but are not required to be. Originally I was thinking the Panic Cycle would be to the downside, but maybe instead will be to the upside which is what Armstrong believes will be the case.

Comment:

(i was wrong and i f'd up)

Could the planned doubling of Q.T. in Sept/Oct be a downside risk? Tne end of the release from the strategic petroleum reserve? Lapse of gas tax abatement? Gas shortages in Europe biting hard by winter? Contagion in Europe (economy or banking system)? (oh I see you addressed Q.T. later in the video)

Comment:

Interaction with the mathematician:

> “@shelby3, going into yesterday I was 100% net long (alpinist mode) with calls from Aug 12-Sep 2 expiration, but yesterday I began hedging legging into SPY puts because I definitely see the risk here but at the same time want to keep my long exposure until the market begs otherwise”

@otwa2113, Armstrong’s Forecast Array carries some weight for me — a peak this week with a pullback next week before heading higher the following week?

Comment:

> “@shelby3, so we are on the same page now?”

@otwa2113, the mistake I made is the former, reasonable expectation of a further capitulation had likely expired (as the near-term peak inflation had catalyzed) and I should have realized it sooner, which you ostensibly discovered implicitly and mathematically. At least I realized it before the breakout above $24k resistance which we are now testing as support. Note I was incorrect and the VIX did actually form a bullish RSI divergence on the daily and bounced today. If there will be another drive of bullish divergence this week with the markets moving higher (and VIX lower), that might provide for the interim peak this week I alluded to? I can’t imagine any catalyst to drive the markets to lower lows in August.

Comment:

I upvoted the mathematician’s replies:

@shelby3 I’m seeing minor distribution phase C so I think today’s high was a wave 3 peak, wave 4 toward 4060-4090 started going into close

Possible to see something like a local double top tomorrow and then pullback next week. Then yes I’m seeing week ending Aug 26 bullish to 4300s

@shelby3 I think VIX will test 24 as early as tomorrow but likely early next week

@shelby3, I am glad you pointed that out about VIX recently I think its dangerous at these low levels (like scuba diving). I agree, I don't see lower low in August - moreso a bull/bear flex (like similes)

Comment:

I replied:

@otwa2113, the bullish RSI divergence on the daily (and 4 hourly) will be lost if the VIX drops any lower, although if it comes down to the next lower, annotated support trend line that might form hidden, bullish RSI divergence.

Thus S&P has either likely already topped for this week or one final spike up. S&P and ETH had essentially hit my T/A projection targets, perhaps with one more slightly higher high or double-top.

Comment:

Alex Becker (who made his initial fortune in SEO and marketing services) is making some very interesting points (listen on 1.5X speed and enjoy his colorful exposition):

(I Sold ALL My Crypto & Stocks. Get Out NOW.)

1. He has correctly bought and sold every top and bottom since 2020 at least. He is selling to lock in gains now because this unexpected parabolic relief rally is faster appreciation than he expected.

2. If he is wrong and BTC heads for $28 – 32k (and note I am thinking perhaps after a pullback next week), then mid-cap altcoins are likely to pop even more than the majors. So given the downside risk, he will prefer to buy the coins which are much further down from their ATHs than the majors because he can risk less and get higher ROI if there’s more upside yet.

3. Skip past the halfway point in the video to listen his altcoin recommendations and reasoning.

4. He points out that China is economically imploding and black swan risks are not off the table. He doesn’t believe this is the time for markets to move back to ATHs. He doesn’t want to time exactly the top and wants to take profits at 80% of the way up so he doesn’t get burned. He thinks $16k Bitcoin and 3600 – 3700 S&P could be revisited eventually.

I don’t disagree with his reasoning.

Comment:

(Why I Only Invest In Crypto Gaming)

Alex Becker further explains my point about why gaming and the metaverse is the future and why it will form a complete economy. And this is very important for my plans about an altcoin.

In the prior video, Alex mentions Neo Toyko community to stay abreast of which altcoins to pay attention to and he lists some micro-cap altcoins:

Can anyone make a list for us by going back through his videos?

Comment:

Insiders have been unloading on this rally which portends another crash 6 months from now. Well that is what I have been expecting. This doesn’t mean there can not be a further rally interim. Insiders don’t time the exact top.

(Selling Everything - The Next Crash Is Coming)

Comment:

(Bitcoin Historical 25.21% Price Signal)

Remember the downside fakeouts on your prior bullish statistical indicators coming off the $18k lows. Ultimately the bullish indicators played out. I expect a repeat — we will be fooled again with a stochastic momentum bearish cross next week. Today is probably the peak and pullback next week. Then the following week the surge to complete these 20 – 40% moves to the upside. Some obscure altcoins may print doubles and triples.

Comment:

@otwa2113, the VIX has not broken support while the S&P has rallied to a new high. I think today is the top for a pullback next week.

Comment:

@otwa2113, BTC may need to move higher above 70 on daily RSI for the maximum bearish divergence. ETH may already be there ~73 but maybe pushes to above 80. If 2200 – 2300 is hit by Monday before the posited pullback, does this mean ETH could hit 2600 to 3200 on the posited final leg up after Aug 26? Is the S&P going to continue higher to 4300+ on Monday before the posited pullback and if so what would that imply for the level of the final blowoff top if there’s a pullback after that before the final leg up?

Comment:

Interaction with the mathematician:

@shelby3, all of these points are what I'm currently looking at as well. I'm leaning toward Monday being bullish/blowoff top followed by sharp downside Tues or Wed.. here are the levels I'm looking for:

ETHUSD: pullback at or before 2100 to the mid 1600s but possibly as low as mid 1400s, followed by run to 2300-2600
BTCUSD: pullback at or before 26k to the 20k-22k range, followed by run to 29k-30k
S&P futes: pullback at or before 4300 to the 4160-4170 range but possibly as low as 4060-4090, followed by run to 4450-4540
VXX (I have calls so I have it mapped out better than VIX): run to 24-26 minimum, probably run to 30-32

@otwa2113, ty for sharing. I have some updates on my published idea mostly ideas and data points from YT videos that are congruent with the possibilities you’ve outlined.

Comment:

Bitcoin Warning: We Are About To Flash MAJOR DIVERGENCE

Comment:

Prior video and the following indicate the bottom is behind us until 2023.

SP500 REJECTING Off a Major Line of Resistance | This is Going to SHAKE Investors Out

Comment:

The Major Stock & Housing Market Reset | Prepare for THIS.

All factors pointing to bullish stock markets markets.

Comment:

My comment on the mathematician’s published idea:

June bottom likely to hold until 2023 or 2024. A massively bullish inverted H&S could form with the posited wave 4 correction underway. Martin Armstrong has a Panic Cycle next week on his DJIA Forecast Array. So perhaps the bottom for wave 4 is next week or the subsequent week. The September DJIA forecast also posits a Panic Cycle which I am positing will be to the upside. The September 13 CPI report is likely to be much lower. Also the Ethereum proof-of-stake merge is September 15, so maybe buy the rumor, sell the news because everyone who holds ETH through the merge may receive a free airdrop of any proof-of-work fork.

Comment:

I doubt BTC drops below $22.4k, which is also my target. There’s already hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart which would be voided with no other possible bullish divergence if BTC dropped below $20.7k. My ETH pullback target is $1575 – 1600. Have you updated yours? I also have the same 4090 pullback target on S&P as the most likely. Ostensibly this S&P pullback will not be the right shoulder of the posited, inverted H&S and instead will come in Sept – Oct. Then to new ATHs no later than Q1 2023.

Comment:

Found it! I mean any ETH update from your comment on Aug 14?

Comment:

Comprehensive long-term projection follow-up on the mathematician’s published idea:

My observations after studying the charts intensively last night and this morning.

The December 2018 bottom to the March 2020 corona dump is repeating. The proportional duration (prior:current) could be 1:1, 11:13 or 2:3; I’m leaning to the middle (second) one. Timing wise the crypto markets are much more tightly correlated to the S&P than in 2018. Bitcoin is languishing as it did in early 2019 until it went parabolic after ETH periscoped its 200 daily SMA and BTC surmounted the same and its overhead resistance downtrend line (which is currently ~$29k); expecting a repeat. Implications include a crypto top in December 2022, January or March 2023 respectively and a massive corona-like flash crash from a final peak August, October 2023 or March 2024. Martin Armstrong’s DJIA Forecast Array has an aggregate peak and long-term, trading cycle for January 2023. A May 2023 bottom could follow a January crypto top with the Fed forced to become more dovish as they did Oct/Nov 2019 corresponding to a Panic Cycle in May 2023 on said Forecast Array. The early 2018, late 2018 and 2020 S&P crashes have monotonically increased in percentage by a factor of 1.75; which projects to -62.5% for the next one; and from top (~5700 – 6100) to bottom in less than 2 months! Pootin invades the Sulwaki Corridor? Monkeypox is crowned?

Near-term whether there’s a leg higher interim, S&P must decline between 3960 to 4090 — probably the latter only. ETH may decline into the low 1400s. BTC should not decline below $20.7k. I believe the markets have been in a terminal impulse wave status since major EW count wave 2 for the corona dump retraced more than 61.8% of major wave 1, thus all wave counts should be A-B-C even on non-corrective, impulse waves. Counting from the June bottom in waves of 3 seems to make more sense than a posited 5 wave count?

ETH currently retraced log-scaled 0.382 Fib contrasted with 0.236 for the posited corresponding juncture in early 2019; BTC has comparable Fib amplification. Whereas the Nasdaq and S&P currently retraced 0.5 and 0.618 respectively contrasted with 0.618 and 0.618/0.786 in early 2019. This may portend 53 – 63k BTC, 3400 – 3800 ETH, 4831 S&P and 16050 Nasdaq for the Q1 2023 top. And 53 – 75k BTC, 3400 – 6000 ETH, 5550 S&P and 21389 Nasdaq for the posited final top before the posited -62% flash crash. I’m leaning to the higher values for crypto reflected in the aforementioned relative Fib amplification, because unlike 2019 when crypto was in a disbelief stage, crypto is more digested now and once the Fed turns dovish then crypto FOMO will surge.

Comment:

I am not bullish on ADA. Maybe to hit $1.20 by Q1 2023, but to decline below 1 cents again in the late 2023 or early 2024 flash crash. Well BTC and ETH to decline below $10k and $150 then also.

Possible explanation is ADA has slow development and proof-of-stake is doomed.

Comment:

Or one could argue as Ron Walker does that because markets have been pushed higher on the bull trap rally, then drop will be worse.

But what is the catalyst for that? Inflation is moderating, companies are still reporting good earnings in the U.S., consumer spending, jobs and wages not yet declining. And massive amounts of cash still on the sidelines with many still betting short. Are they going to sit in cash while the ~20% inflation debases purchasing power? Would need to be some black swan with Russia? In an election year? Sept/Oct is often choppy and volatile, especially in an election year.

In 2021 the Elon Musk and Michael Saylor hype. In 2020 was the tech bubble driven by the pLandemic lockdowns and massive stimulus. In 2019 it was the QE momentum from the Great Recession coupled with the dead cat enthusiasm from the altcoin FOMO bubble of 2017. Coming off the 2022 bottom has been the ETH merge. Altcoin gaming with transportable NFTs may be the next hype. Also Kevin O’Leary has been pushing the theme that sovereign wealth funds are coming very soon into Bitcoin and BlackRock recently enabled custodial purchasing facilitated by Coinbase! BlackRock owns the Fed and Treasury Dept!The markets are flooded with cash from the QE and stimulus, and that cash has to go some where so that the whales can fleece the greater fool dolphins and minnows.

Remember the game theory prerequisite to take Bitcoin to a nosebleed price and onboard everyone the-powers-that-be want to destroy/fleece, before the ANYONECANSPEND attack can be unleashed.

Comment:

Sorry Adam I believe you will be left behind on this. Reevaluate your imminent doom. Doom takes time to play out. Stuff happens interim. You can not win in investing by being afraid. Emotional investors are destroyed. You must have conviction so as to ignore the volatility.

Adam the logic in everything overhyped is the entire world is maladapted due to the money printing. The way the system destroys itself and the powers-that-be attempt to consolidate everything is by overhyping and then crashing, wash-rinse-repeat. The charts have patterns which are a roadmap to these actions, because the markets can’t hide their order in chaos. The data is public.

Don’t take a simpleton perspective that everything must just crash in one move. Entropy and natural systems never behave like that. Notice how everything moved back to a peak in January 2020 before the implosion. And the insiders were selling that peak. Insiders are not selling now! They are buying now at the juncture where most people are very afraid that the recession will get much worse before it gets better as indicated by sentiment surveys. Yet when asked about their own finances, they are spending like nothing changed.

Since this bottom Google searches for bull trap are on a giganormous spike up. On this rally the searches for bear trap have also started to rise, thus the need for a pullback to keep the majority afraid and sitting on their hands while the market runs away from them (and they end up buying the top).

The psychology of the markets is manipulating you. There’s no surety with markets and those who want surety will be destroyed as biblical proverbs warns. There’s only probabilities.

Comment:

I annotated this VIX chart in the summer of 2021 and published it.

The VIX chart narrative. The bull-market, declining channel from 2010 to 2018, which turned into a bullish (for VIX bearish for stocks) ascending triangle or wedge from 2018 to 2020. Then the massive spike bull move corresponding to the corona, pLandemic flash crash. Then the bull-market, declining channel from Q2 2020 to Q4 2021, with the market-bearish, bullish VIX breakout peaking to the projected measured move.

VIX has essentially repeated December 2018 to February 2019 already; and now appears poised to repeat pattern from week of February 19. VIX appears to be in another bullish (for VIX bearish for stocks) wedge with a massive spike (market flash crash) breakout to follow in Q3 or Q4 2023. Initial, spike up breakout (i.e. markets correction) may be in Q2 2023 then calm down again for several months.

All proceeding exactly as the chart projected! If we would just stop ignoring this chart structure, we would be very wealthy from speculative investments.

Notice the bull-market, declining channels are becoming shorter in duration and steeper; thus the next one from 2024 may be only 6 months in duration and near vertical — can readers repeat after me, “ANYONECANSPEND Bitcoin attack followed by vertical, catapult of legacy Bitcoin”! The monetary, economic and political system is self-immolating. Nuclear WW3 (against China-Russia-N.Korea-Iran) surely on tap for ~2025 with Russia-NATO conflict as early as H2 2023.

Comment:

I annotated this VIX chart in the summer of 2021 and published it.

The VIX chart narrative. The bull-market, declining channel from 2010 to 2018, which turned into a bullish (for VIX bearish for stocks) ascending triangle or wedge from 2018 to 2020. Then the massive spike bull move corresponding to the corona, pLandemic flash crash. Then the bull-market, declining channel from Q2 2020 to Q4 2021, with the market-bearish, bullish VIX breakout peaking to the projected measured move.

VIX has essentially repeated December 2018 to February 2019 already; and now appears poised to repeat pattern from week of February 19. VIX appears to be in another bullish (for VIX bearish for stocks) wedge with a massive spike (market flash crash) breakout to follow in Q3 or Q4 2023. Initial, spike up breakout (i.e. markets correction) may be in Q2 2023 then calm down again for several months.

All proceeding exactly as the chart projected! If we would just stop ignoring this chart structure, we would be very wealthy from speculative investments.

Notice the bull-market, declining channels are becoming shorter in duration and steeper; thus the next one from 2024 may be only 6 months in duration and near vertical — can readers repeat after me, “ANYONECANSPEND Bitcoin attack followed by vertical, catapult of legacy Bitcoin”! The monetary, economic and political system is self-immolating. Nuclear WW3 (against China-Russia-N.Korea-Iran) surely on tap for ~2025 with Russia-NATO conflict as early as H2 2023.

Comment:

I studied the chart history for a significant sampling of these altcoins.

I’ve soured on this (NFT and gaming) altcoin moon thesis as BTC breaks out above ~$29k. Rather it looks like a repeat of H1 2019 where all these look to be nearing their peaks as priced in BTC and once BTC breaks out above $29k, it will suck the air out of all the alts (at least in terms of leverage over BTC) as it also did in H2 2020. Better to wait on all these until at least the posited bottom in May 2023 for the rally into the final high. It’s not altcoin season in earnest. The Bitcoin Dominance with stable coins removed looks bullish to me with the ETH merge hype as a dead cat rally only.

The proof-of-work fork of ETH will duplicate and double the supply of all ERC-20 altcoin tokens after the merge causing chaos and sell pressure — another reason for a pullback incoming and probably an overhang on the altcoins for some months. These (including my recent comments about the loss of fungibility) are revealing the untenable dogesh8t that altcoins are.

Comment:

Here’s a matching “triple top” (aka actually quadruple or double-double) ANYONECANSPEND death spiral (followed by Rothschild’s Economist Magazine 1988 cover story Phoenix ‘rising from the ashes’ thereafter) visual model for Bitcoin:

Comment:

CORRECTION: Bitcoin spot could decline below $20.7k and still have a hidden, bullish RSI divergence, as long as remains above $18.6k. The spot RSI has come down more than I expected it would at current price level. If the RSI comes down enough the hidden, bullish RSI divergence would persist if price is above the $17.6k spot price bottom. On CME it’s possible a non-hidden, bullish RSI divergence might form with price even as low as $18155 to fill the CME gap that didn’t entirely fill with the June $18.5k bottom. I am looking for a bottom $18 – 19k.

Comment:

Bitcoin will make a new ATH in 2023! Or at least close to it, c.f. this yearly chart.

Let’s analyse the pattern. 2019 almost got back to the ATH and that appears to be repeating except note in 2019 that stock markets did make ATHs and crypto is more correlated with stock markets now than in 2019 (as evidenced by the relative Fib amplification compared to 2019, crypto bottoming on same day and other metrics of correlation).

Notice that 2020 printed a new ATH after 2018 red year. Whereas only 2017 was new ATH after 2014 red year. 2019 was more correlated to stocks and 2022 even more correlated.

2024 will be a near vertical move to an egregiously higher high ~$1 million for legacy Bitcoin after a crash to $7k or lower.

thus the next one from 2024 may be only 6 months in duration and near vertical

Comment:

We need to be watching whether US 10 YR Treasuries can surmount 3.1%. Note already have hidden, bearish divergence on the daily chart for this (probably a dead cat) bounce.

Comment:

Okay the reason the dollar is rallying is because the inflation is worse outside the U.S.. The UK had a horrible 12.5% retail price inflation report.

Looks like will rally to a new ATH but will be bearish RSI divergence on the daily:

Comment:

ETH approaching a potential buy level. Not saying the final pullback bottom will be at this level. Might bounce from ~1565.

Comment:

> “Everyone forgot about how much money was pumped in the economy, for those who lost the bottom you might have to seat on the sidelines until the breakout on the top. 👌”

They are getting one more chance on Bitcoin which will triple.

> “Rate hikes take up to 18 months to work their way through the real economy. Damage has already been done to the real estate market and it will compound into 2023.
>
> Despite what Brown thinks, rate hikes do not work immediately and the prudent next steps is for the FOMC to pause and monitor the damage already caused by their hikes.
>
> Accumulate and hold long your high conviction growth stocks.”

Markets don’t need a Fed pause to make new ATHs. All the cash pumped into the economy is coming back in the markets as the worst of the FUD is behind us until winter. Remember it’s an election year so the Bolsheviks running the U.S.A. are not going to intentionally provoke another international war before the mid-terms.

> “What are you smoking? Consumers are heavily leveraged in debt, and it doesn't matter if the select "few" were privileged to higher wages, they are weighed down by the masses that were not. What people don't seem to understand is, that it doesn't matter what you think something is worth on paper. If people can't afford it and don't want to pay it, it isn't worth that #, you won't sell it and congrats you are stuck there forever.”

@Toofan Habib the poor do not drive the economy nor the stock market.

> “Inflation will be much stickier than most realize. Consumers are in a much stronger position than before the pandemic with higher wages, much less consumer debt, and more income thanks to lowered expenses thanks to working from home and moving to cheaper areas. This has allowed them to deal with higher inflation costs but the problem is as soon as prices drop they can go right back to spending more which will keep pressure on inflation.”

Stock markets will make new ATHs before the next recession.

> “Why does the 10.year bond pay less than a 2 year bond”

Betting on a recession which won’t start until 2023 or 2024 and not end for more than 2 years out from now. In a financial crisis bonds rise, but not expired bonds.

> “wake me up when its all been built back better. until then in not lifting a finger to own nothing.”

They will not be able to take your Bitcoin if you store in addresses that begin with a 1, not 3 nor bc1. Those latter two will be donated to the miners in order to send Bitcoin to $1M.

> “Let me put it to you this way. I'm in the repair service business, the kind where I come to your house and fix your broken stuff. As the cost of housing and food increases, the cost you are paying me for my services also increases. What used to cost you $600, now cost you $1200. Next year I'll be charging even more if prices don't come down. That's the only way I'll be able to afford to buy a home, my first home by the way, and I'm in my 40's. It's a shame hard working people like myself must compete against second and third home owners as well as institutional and corporate buyers... I'll keep raising prices till I can compete. The alternative is to John Galt and burn it all while I walk away from society.”

Meet Kevin wants to teach you to be a real estate broker and become a real estate investor. Let the immigrants do your job, they’re willing to share 12 to a house to reduce their costs. You need to move up the food chain.

> “Inflation allways was and will continue to be a supply problem.”

Which is always a political problem. It used to only be Argentina, Venezuela and Zimbabwe. Now the West is run by Bolsheviks also who intentionally created this crisis so that we will “own nothing and be happy” while they “build back better” after intentionally destroying it all.

> “Global import/exports levels are higher than pre-pandemic levels. It’s all MONETARY. 🤡 ”

@Stevie Wonders crude oil spiking was not driven by monetary demand but rather intentionally forcing Pootin into war. Most of the monetary inflation ends up in investment assets, not consumer spending. Consumer products supply can easily be increased if not for the Bolsheviks’ pLandemic lockdowns

> “Common sense here, I like when the common sense overstake the media. No way inflation come down with these crazy asset valuations, Houses and $AAPL stock”

Actually the fmr Fed governor is nonsensical, as the astute comments below this video explicate.

> “Housing is always delayed, it will start to drop”

Upvoted.

Comment:

Several themes in this Vice video, America’s Last Affordable Housing Is Under Threat:

1. My long-standing prediction that Americans would end up in trailer parks at the end of the coming Greater Depression.

2. The corporatized takeover of rental properties and gouging for the maximum the market can pay.

3. The Hispanization (i.e. La raza-cósmica) of AmeriKa. Look how their tendency is to turn it into a sh8thole, not much different than my experience with poverty-stricken Philippines.

4. “You will own nothing, be happy, eat grasshoppers and rent everything,” like a good slave.

Comment:

(Moment gamer teen is arrested after threatening to shoot up his school online)

> > “The fact that this so-called “mother” is defending this kid for making a threat of this nature is just as appalling as the threat itself… absolutely unbelievable 😞.”
>
> “Two cops just showed up out of nowhere on her porch to take her teenage son away and charge him with a felony. She's still processing. She's upset, and it would honestly be more concerning if she wasn't. And frankly, most parents would say similar things in her shoes. And then some. Is it the perfect response? No. But calling her a ¨so-called mother¨ and referring to her reflexive response in the heat of the moment to defend the child that she raised and loves as equally appalling to a calculated threat against numerous children's lives, is unreasonable, unfair, and very harsh.
>
> Personally, I think people are way too fast to judge a parent on a single action or statement, way too fast to judge someone's decisions in an objectve or personal crisis that they don't have to experience themselves, and way too fast to judge a stranger that they only saw an out-of-context moment of on YT. This woman hit the jackpot of all three. These comments are full of peope calling her a terrible person and a terrible mother, saying she doesn't really love her son, blaming her by proxy for mass shootings, etc. It's literally just a woman crying and saying her young son is a good kid and didn't mean it, while he's being carted off by police in a potentially life-changing event. Jesus christ. Do you not see how over the top that is? Chill out and have some compassion, bro.”

@L. S.D. shooting up schools is a serious f*cking crime against society. The social response to her inability to parent is commensurate. Stop making excuses for her lack of mental processing. Any astute person can process that in a split second.

Comment:

> “@S. Moore I have no interest or belief in astrology, however the principle of doing to others and showing love originate with Jesus, and are not mine so yes they are lofty but not unattainable and nor can they can be refuted, and can only work to our benefit. In any case there is one seeing all who is the rewarder of every deed. Again no assumptions about your past. Granted u were in a horrible position, especially living in poverty and uncertainty. I can relate in some ways. Being poor all my life but always finding a way out, as u have. I've also lived in a place of barking dogs all through the night, along with noisy motor bikes, roosters crowing, and karaoke.”

@Tony Barfridge Jesus guided me through the morass. I had the print out of the eulogy from my grandfather’s 1996 funeral pasted on the wall above my computer, “Jesus is the granite upon which I stand, all else is sinking sand.” Seriously I spread much love in the Philippines and many Filipinos reciprocated, but my tank ran empty from the morass of the underside of it all. Difficult to explain or even process. I am just warning foreigners that much of the Philippines is still a poverty stricken land and that comes with certain challenges that may wear a person down depending on their means, personality type, vocation, etc.. Being that I’m a computer programmer I was stuck in the house trying to generate income from (originally) a Nipa hut in a densely packed shanty. So I could not escape the noise. Could not afford to go on a vacation. Etc.. I am blind now in one eye since 12-1-1999, after my Filipina wife had flipped off some bad boys in Angeles City when I took my first vacation after years of grinding poverty, as they were insulting her something about she was too ugly for me and resembled the vagina of a pig. The Asian financial crisis was really hard on the Filipinos. Many were literally eating only grass. Maybe there‘s some improvement now in some facets, but it’s very spotty. And now the pLandemic corruption has been layered on top which most of Asia is strictly enforcing. The Philippines stands out as still requiring these toxic, useless jabs to enter as a tourist or even to apply for SRRV. I am not going back even though my love one is stuck there for the time being. I also grew weary of the lack of spontaneous, respectful and even philosophical interaction. In my last weeks in Manila, I encountered a couple from Peru who were not ashamed to be having a lively discussion in the elevator whereas Filipinos either go entirely silent or if they have dominating group they will crack some insulting jokes. And in Walmart, Sierra Vista, Arizona various older ladies joking with me such as nearly colliding shopping carts, etc.. The Filipinos are so conscious of how others are judging them. It was suffocating for me. As for scripture I am also applying 2 Timothy 3, “Have nothing to do with such people.” I noticed most Filipinos I encountered were entirely uninterested in the actual values of Christianity and church going was just a social event as Jesus warned in Matthew 6.

Comment:

EDIT: but my tank ran empty from the morass of the underside and struggle of it all as well as old age and accumulated bad health from it all — imagine how difficult it is for the Filipinos and generations of grinding poverty.

Comment:

Apologies all the above comments since last night were not intended to be on this published idea!

Comment:

(Bitcoin Worst Case Scenario For Price In August)

Regarding your two statistical tools one of which is already in play to the downside, how about 23% down to ~$19k this coming week, then ~37% up to $26k? Note your first indicator already had an abbreviated ~12% move to the upside before resetting to the downside so could it do the same again but to the upside after this downside move in play?

Comment:

Bitcoin hash ribbons has printed the blue BUY signal!! The bottom was in June for sure. Expect Bitcoin to moon after this pullback.

The blue Buy signal printed in 2019 right before the bottom of the final pullback.

Note though that his interpretation of the Accumulation/Distribution indicator is signaling the low might be incoming on this pullback, possibly as low as $15k. But I interpret it differently that bottom already hit.

Your interpretation of the Accumulation/Distribution with markers indicator is arbitrary. I looked it at on the BLX aggregated index and there is no such horizontal trigger level. In fact the only relationship I see if the bottom comes in either 2 or 3 months from the month it turns red. Thus June was the bottom. End of story.

Comment:

I had cited this log-scaled ETH/BTC chart for why I thought Bitcoin would soon outperform ETH after ETH crosses up over the key, aforementioned moving average.

However note the linearly scaled ETH/BTC chart is somewhat more bullish:

I should revisit ADA again to affirm whether I still remain less bullish on it.

Comment:

E.K.C. replied:

> “nope”

@Eric Krown Crypto there’s no statistically defined minimum threshold level of confluence for the bottom on either the Tradingview Index nor the BraveNew Coin (BNC:BLX) index. You have only two data points of confluence for that minimum being meaningful (and not just some arbitrary concept pulled out of your arse) on the former and no confluence on the latter. The BNC chart is arguably more accurate because the data is more scrubbed (vetted) and includes more exchanges. The only pattern of some very weak statistical confluence (on both indices) is that the bottom comes within 3 months of the said indicator turning red. Thus a bottom this month is plausible w.r.t. to the indicator and a bottom next month is highly dubious w.r.t. the indicator although still well within the variance because so few data points. Nothing else can be said with any semblance of statistical reasoning. That being said, the entire indicator is highly dubious because it’s very dependent on the volume data and we know volume is fake on these centralized exchanges (which is again why I am more apt to trust the scrubbed and vetted data of BNC for this indicator). I predict you will obstinately and subjectively call a bull trap on what ends up running away from you! I look at many macro factors as well and the stock markets are currently climbing the wall of worry with massive levels of cash on the sidelines as the consumer and market investor is flush with accumulated cash despite saving rates declining now. When the FOMO reverses direction the bears will be caught buying the top, lol. Numerous other indicators which have marked previous bottoms have already flashed that the bottom is in including the Pi Cycle, the Guppy and the hash ribbons miners’ capitulation. You are ostensibly still fighting the last war (as apparently you didn’t call the top but I sold at $66k and predicted in the summer of 2021 a drop to egregious lows would come after moving back up the top of a repeating megaphone pattern), as are the EuropeOns.

Comment:

K-dub the Crypto Zombie explains what I also see with the hash ribbon buy signal. Watch for 1 minute on double-speed:

(BITCOIN JUST FLASHED ITS BIGGEST SIGN YET!!!!! WARNING: THERE’S A CATCH!!!!! 🚨)

Comment:

I suppose I was noting its terrible relative performance in (the posited to be fractal correlating period of) 2019 when I quickly blurted out that bearish comment about ADA. Also currently below the green 200 daily (simple) moving average. Note the shaded rectangles on all charts below. But the Elliot Wave structure is different and highly bullish possibly indicating a new ATH ~$4+ (if BTC $50+k) by roughly the end of this year. This difference can also be noted on my posited Bitcoin charts where I do not project Bitcoin to come back down to the bottom of its posited, diagrammed, megaphone, broadening wedge until the egregious crash expected in Q4 2023, unlike in 2019 where it came down to the bottom of the diagrammed broadening wedge twice before the final top and egregious corona dump crash. This current distinction for Bitcoin is ostensibly because Bitcoin will form a new smaller megaphone pattern at the posited incoming top of the posited incoming bullish rally into the end of this year. Remember I had noted many times previously that ADA/USDT did not have the terminal impulse condition because Elliot wave 1 began after the corona dump, because the corona dump was the low unlike most other crypto charts. Thus wave 4 didn’t need to come back down to the top of its wave 1.

Recently there’s been some test net FUD about Cardano, but appears to be resolved now and the 75% of nodes may update to Vasil within the next 10 days! Expect a price pump soon.

The ADA/BTC chart also exhibits a bullish EW count and its terminal impulse condition was already fulfilled as wave 4 retraced to top of wave 1. The monthly chart has hidden, bullish RSI divergence and the daily chart has two drives of bullish RSI divergence if bottoms at current level.

Comment:

Clarification: “where I do not project Bitcoin to come back down {again}”

(inserted the word ‘again’)

Comment:

(Crypto Expert Gives SHOCKING Bitcoin Prediction for September (When Will Bitcoin Bottom?))

Disagree on his Accumulation/Distribution thesis.

I have ostensibly cast my information gathering net much wider than you two if you both think that the Fed needs to stop tightening before the stock market can rally to new ATHs and Bitcoin making a significant rally. Firstly just look back to 2019 (which btw is my repeating fractal, broadening wedge model period as well) wherein the Fed had been reducing its QE balance sheet and then gradually only in very slight, nuanced, dovish tone, jawboned through early 2019 causing a massive risk-on rally. What happened is that once the FOMO kicked in, the cash on the sidelines rushed back through the exit door in a stampede to get back inside the burning movie threater before the corona dump. Essentially the markets exploded once the worst of the balance reduction FUD (i.e. fear) had been priced in. C.f. Yardeni Research’s Chronology of Fed’s Quantitative Easing & Tightening. Also every recession has come delayed and even for example in 2007, the initial dive bomb was reversed into a new ATH before the actual crash into the Greater Recession abyss which is coming 2023 to 2024. Both of you would be well served to partake of some of Meet Kevin’s and Game of Trades’ analyses. The sentiment analysis for example points to the bottom is behind us for the major U.S. stock market indices until after another new ATH is printed. Coming in late 2023 or early 2024 will be another black swan flash crash and 1.75 times that of the corona dump, thus -62%.

E.K.C. is such a n00b when it comes to understanding the technology and game theory of the crypto sector. Ethereum has always been a USG scam:

Comment:

I concur except I think the higher low will be ~1300 around third week of September corresponding to the drop below ~4000 on your SPX (S&P) General Structure. Why do you think ETH will lag for so many months if the SPX is poised to skyrocket? BTC will eventually surprise to the upside, probably on the rally starting in mid-October to catapult to ~$32k. Perhaps only ~$25.8k on the incoming wave 5 after pullback to ~$19 – 20k later this week. I am doubting BTC will make a lower low in September.

SPX forming a massive bullish, inverted H&S (with that move down to ~4000 later in September to form the right shoulder) or coiling within the massive broadening, declining wedge. Either T/A structure indicates a breakout in October (which corresponds to the Panic Cycle for the week of October 17 on Armstrong’s DJIA Forecast Array following the spike in Volatility for the weeks of Sep 12 and Oct 3 and all of September is a Panic Cycle as well week of Aug 22 with week of Aug 29 forming a new high) targeting a new ATH for the SPX no later than January. The high may extend into March after a pullback. I am incorporating many factors including Armstrong’s weekly and monthly DJIA Forecast Arrays (which have components for Volatility, Panic Cycles, Directional Changes, L-wave & Empirical waves, Trading Cycles and Long-term), the correspondence to the December 2018 bottom, rally in H1 2019 and the current T/A structures.

I can’t fathom the catalyst for a SPX lower low.

Comment:

BTC, ETH and ADA prices respectively. My current outlook is for a potential continued relief rally tomorrow to ~21.9–22.8k, 1720–1820 and 0.48–0.50. with a decline into the end of the week to ~19.3–20.4k, 1475 and 0.40–0.43. A bull trap rally next week to ~25.7k, 2500 and 0.59–0.69. A decline into third week of September ~18.1–19.3k, 1300 and 0.40–0.45 (SPX to ~3980). A rally into Nov/Dec 42k, 3400 and 1.45 as ETH and ADA slam into their overhead resistance trend lines on my recent chart updates. Pullback and two more surges into January and March with final tops 60–65k, 4100–4200 and 1.55.

What’s not clear is whether ETH and ADA will under perform from that juncture as they did in 2019. Will they stay trapped under their said overhead trend lines or will the bullish EW count (c.f. my published updates) hold and they proceed up to new ATHs to complete their posited, major wave 5?

BTC will decline until May perhaps to ~36k. Then it will rally to ~75k (70–80k, i.e. a “triple, quadruple or double-double” top) into Q4 2023 (perhaps a Sept/Oct peak), presumably due to the Fed forced to become more dovish but not yet rockets-to-da-moon QE (as was the case in 2019 as noted in my recent updates). A FLASH CRASH (Russia invades Lithuania and takes the Sulwaki Corridor?) will seek egregious lows ~5–7k, 120–300 and 0.03–0.10 by end of 2024. Readers repeat after me, ‘ANYONECANSPEND restoration, donations-to-the-miners “attack”.‘ Note timing could be extended by a couple of months or so. I’m expecting the SPX to crash -62.5% from ~5900 to ~2180. Note every percentage decline on the SPX has been increasing by 1.75 so the -35.5% corona flash crash will be amplified. Many exchanges and stable coins may fail so keep that in mind if attempting to short the cryptocurrencies.

The Fed will be forced to QE-to-da-moon again but with inflation already hot a.f. due to accelerating international war and sanctions thereof. The Fed will discover they are pushing on a string (marginal-utility-of-debt gone egregiously negative) so they are likely to be unable to control interest rates and non-speculative, non-FOMO legacy (i.e. Satoshi’s immutable protocol, not BTC, BCH nor BSV!) Bitcoin should finally start mooning on fear (as gold does) as the monetary reset looms.

The altcoins (all that FOMO, speculative dogesh8t, including the altcoin Bitcoin Core which was created by the corruption on the 2017 N.Y. Agreement soft fork…soft forks are deceptions and must eventually hard fork/f-ck) will have declined for the first time to well below their prior cycle ATHs indicating the end of their half-decade bull market (all except LTC launched ~2017). The proof-of-work altcoins will be destroyed by repeated, difficulty-bomb non-readjustment attacks. The proof-of-stake sh8tcoins will be attacked by government regulation as they are folded into the orbit of the central bank digital currencies’ (CBDCs’) dominion — as TPTB try to enslave us in totalitarian, negative interest rates aka capital controls by trying to end the free market with their futile, diabolical “Great Reset” collateral damage wrecking ball.

ETH may form a bearish double-top and/or decade long, bearish, H&S pattern projecting to $0. All cryptocurrencies other than legacy Bitcoin to $0 whilst Satoshi’s Phoenix rises to $1 million.

ETH:BTC appears to be dying. It peaked in 2017 and now is dead cat rallying in a bearish rising channel or wedge.

Ditto ADA:BTC:

Comment:

> “@shelby3, I can't imagine why the idea would be scrapped when it has been almost a perfect prediction of SPX so far”

@Only_Losses, there’s a half dozen indicators that have flashed the bottom is in for Bitcoin, e.g. Pi Cycle, Guppy bands, hash ribbons miner capitulation, log RSI bullish cross, fractal correspondence to the December 2019 bottom pattern, etc.. Why would the S&P make a lower low if Bitcoin doesn’t? What would be the catalyst? We would need some directional change on the dollar and inflation that’s not already priced into the markets. The DXY and Treasuries appear to be dead cat bouncing now with bearish RSI divergences. Well more than half (was 55% before this latest pullback) of the market is expecting lower lows thus it likely won’t. If the markets are going to make new ATHs as @JerryManders (formerly @otwa2113) expects then it needs to happen probably by January because Russia is going to shut off the energy supply to Europe this winter driving the dollar and price inflation up. Although I guess one could argue the market could rally while inputs to price inflation are rising again since those feeding into CPI may lag a bit. Didn’t he originally have two scenarios, one in which the markets mooned and the other in which they proceeded down to make lower lows?

Comment:

c.f. also Coinbase Crackdown

Comment:

@OPTICALARTdotCOM the red line may be the thin one parallel to and above the thick one! You arbitrary chose the lower one. You are confused by the double top. 14:32 {juncture in the aforelinked video} When the DXY bottomed December 2019, the price did not come all the down to your red line. I expect the DXY to top out 113 for a decline until end of the year. The proper red line is the thin one up higher than your thick one. So Bitcoin does not need to make a lower low before it rallies to $60k by December. The price will come down to your thin red line but not until Q4 2023. And yes it will be a very low price. Cryptocurrency is dying.

Comment:

Follow-up…

@OPTICALARTdotCOM notice also that the DXY already rallied half-way to the 113 top target off recent lows, but BTC has barely declined. So there is no way that the move to 113 will bring BTC down to your ridiculous 7k or 10k target. I don’t even see the momentum for a lower low than the June low, which is why I mentioned to note that in December 2019 Bitcoin did not move down to your diagrammed red line as the DXY moved to an extreme (actually a low but you argued that visits to the red line also occur on DXY bottoms as well as tops). So those observations taken together with my assertion that the thin, upper red line is that actual line of confluence we should be paying attention to, I have concluded that Bitcoin bottomed in June and the incoming retest will bottom on your cyan (i.e. blue) colored Fib circle ~18 – 19k. Multiple indicators flashed that the Bitcoin bottom is behind us already, including the Pi Cycle, Guppy, miner capitulation hash ribbons, the log RSI bullish cross, various MA crosses as detailed by Steve aka Crypto Crew University, etc.. I do have a published trading (view) idea which shows the repeating pattern for why Bitcoin will bounce to a “triple top” (actually a quadruple or double-double top) before another flash crash late in 2023 back down to your thin, red line. The posited Q4 2023 flash crash will likely be cause by Russia invading Lithuania to take the Sulwaki Corridor (which will invoke the NATO mutual defense treaty).

Comment:

Biden to flood the youth with FOMO money by canceling their student loan debt payments until Dec 31. Another sign that the market will rally in Q4 2022:

(click for twitter screen capture)

Comment:

I highly recommend Game of Trades’ recent videos (listen on double-speed), which are all consistent with my recent summary of my price expectations. (Note the titles are click bait and the points he makes are opposite of the titles)

THIS Signal Has Triggered Major Historical SP500 Crashes | Markets Will Price In a Fed PIVOT First (Aug 24, 2022)

THIS Has Triggered ALL Great Market Collapses In the Last 30 Years | Bear Market or All-Time Highs? (Aug 22, 2022)

Savings are at 2007 Levels. | SP500 is Set for a Massive Bear Market Rally or a MEGA Short-Squeeze? (Aug 19, 2022)

SP500 REJECTING Off a Major Line of Resistance | This is Going to SHAKE Investors Out (Aug 17, 2022) ← covers market sentiment

SP500 is Breaking a PIVOTAL Resistance Level | THIS Will Lead to a Massive Bull Run (Aug 15, 2022) ← momentum has shifted to bullish above 100 daily MA

I commented on the aforelinked video:

Oil will go above $187 but not until later in 2023 or 2024 after Russia invades Lithuania to take the Sulwaki Corridor. There is time enough for a rally to ATHs no later than Q1 2023. Meantime the interest rate driven demand destruction will help bring CPI down.

The Moment We’ve All Been Waiting For: Massive SP500 Dead Cat Bounce or a V-Shaped Recovery? (Aug 12, 2022) ← the Wall of Worry will leave most people behind as this retest is not bought by the fearful

This is a WORSE Reading than the Bottom of 2008 | Investors are NOT Positioned Correctly (Aug 10, 2022)

Nobody Understands This SP500 Rally | Investors About to Get CRUSHED Missing This Opportunity (Aug 8, 2022)

Comment:

Following up on the short-term outlook in my recent summary of expected price moves going forward through 2024…

With NVDA (Nvidia) set to report earnings today this (Investors should focus on the strength of end markets, says Ritholtz's Josh Brown) could be the catalyst to all markets to momentarily bounce before declining into pre-Jackson Hole fear on Friday per your published idea ETH update. Yet there’s likely to be a significant pump as the reaction to Powell’s incoming speech as he will likely only reiterate the same hawkish, data driven stance that’s already priced into the markets. Your posited wave 5 needs to complete. But then declining after wave 5 because the DXY needs to top out 113 (c.f. rising channel) before coming down to 102 by Nov/Dec as posited in your published idea General Structure.

Comment:

> “Disagree I think it’s going to get recked again in the coming month or two. Semis rallied hard off the bottom with whispers of the semi bill that’s done and past. Bear market + semi demand slowing and supply growing. A couple of semi companies warned of this slowing demand and oversupply during earnings calls. Not to mention they all would miss earnings if they didn’t lower the heck out of expectations. Just my two cents Gl!”

@Steadyeddy69, the wall of worry that the markets are climbing will predictably cause the fearful to buy the top as it runs away from them and they find excuses not to buy all the way up. You are getting one more chance to buy nearer to the June bottom. Don’t stare a gift horse in the (hind quarters) “face” as you’re likely to get kicked in the mouth. I have covered all the fundamental reasons in the vast number of recent updates on my published idea, Bitcoin bottom to be or not to be?

Comment:

lol after selling the bottom for Coinbase, Kathy Wood doubles down by selling the likely bottom for Nvidia.

Comment:

Buried in the Fed minutes they are already hinting at a pivot to dovish jawboning. It is 2019 repeating as I previously posited.

(Rate hikes will end sooner than markets think: Rosenberg)

Comment:

@Steadyeddy69, over 95% of Nasdaq stocks were above their 50 daily MA — a startling shift in that measure of market bullishness from virtually none being above that breadth metric at the June bottom. Yet only 45% of market participants were positioned bullish on this rally (and probably even less now on the “last chance to board the train” pullback underway). Although savings rates are declining, that’s a lagging indicator because accumulated cash is very high and has to go somewhere. The market is overpriced w.r.t. to sour forward Q3 estimates (to be reported in Q4) but that along with expectations of labor market recession are more lagging indicators. Whereas price (as distinct from monetary) inflation expectations are a 3 to 4 months leading indicator and they turned down in May until just recently starting to turn back up. This market wants to rally back to ATHs because the FUD selloff was driven by imminent recession fears stoked by inflation continuing to rise, yet a GDP recession is not a labor recession which come on a lag some months from now. Meantime the threat of future labor recession is causing commodities to be priced downwards due to expected demand destruction, notwithstanding the trend in future inflation expectations as a leading indicator trending back up especially after Biden announced a massive ‘stealth’ stimulus via student loan abatements and abeyance (which might just end up FOMOing into meme stocks like AMC). And the thing with FOMO (and the memory effect of those who lost over the past decades by not buying the dips) is that once it starts to rip then everyone eventually piles in whether they are early or buy the top. Of course everything will be overpriced and irrationally priced w.r.t. to earnings because that’s a feature of a the Mises crack-up boom that has been engineered by the Fed and Bolsheviks at the helm. Nvidia will be considered “cheap” as one of the few lone assets (and the only major semiconductor focused with massive growth potential in the cloud) “underpriced” in this insanity paradigm. The market will invent narratives to justify pumping it. When price inflation paused in Q1 the markets attempted to rally but crashed anew when it was clear CPI was still increasing. If CPI has indeed peaked until winter then June was the bottom of this expected risk-on rally to ATHs over next few months. Remember that we had the same situation in 2019 where all the Fed had to do was jawbone slightly more dovishly and the markets came off the December 2018 low to new ATHs. And there’s a lot more cash floating around now after the massive corona dump stimulus. Timing of leading and lagging indicators along with the level of insanity of a crack-up boom must be factored into the analysis.

Comment:

Additionally the same thesis applies in spades to the crypto sector. Bitcoin priced still near its June low is going to look mighty attractive (especially it has no earnings thus can’t be “overpriced” w.r.t. to earnings) when 95+% of the Nasdaq is already above their individual 50 DMAs. Bitcoin lagged coming off the December 2018 lows then suddenly catapulted after the other risk-on markets had reestablished a bullish footing. I posit the fractal of 2019 is essentially repeating. The Austrian economics crack-up boom is accelerating. The sh8t is going to get even more bizarre and diabolical than the cerveza sickness pLandemic come Q4 2023! Can you say WW3? Can you say 666-like central bank digital currencies, capito{a}l controls, forced rationing and no more private bank accounts? My research is deep.

Comment:

The Euro:USD has bullish RSI divergence on both the weekly and monthly charts. The weakening Euro has a feedback loop spiraling effect because it increases price inflation which makes the economic outlook worse, which weakens the Euro. But there is only so far it can fall so fast without other inertial factors coming into play which create a reversal.

Comment:

Let’s not forget there’s still the black swan risk of a move down to ~$12k. But note the RSI is already near the low whereas BTC has not made a new low! Thus I think this pattern is invalidated. The crash has lost momentum and appears to have bottomed in June.

I agree with the last chart 23:34 for a move up to ~$22.4k, then a drop to ~$19.2k.

Comment:

(These Bitcoin Charts SCARE ME – An Honest Hot Take)

The 40% drops occurred as the RSI was dropping. The RSI already dropped and no 40% decline. June was the bottom. As for a second drop, the price is likely to be bouncing and grinding higher in the meantime unlike the prior instance where it was grinding lower. Thus any additional 18% decline will likely be from ~$22.8k, thus not forming a lower low. Simply put the markets are more bullish now with the massive breadth in the recent stock market rallies. Climbing the Wall of Worry now with the bounces on the dollar, treasuries, inflation expectations and soon oil as well.

Comment:

(Warning: Pay Attention to This UNEXPECTED Shift.)

Agreed the H1 2022 “good news was bad news,” has shifted for the smart money. The recent tectonic shift from no breadth above their 50 daily period moving averages at the June lows, to 95% above on this recent rally indicates the dominant market psychology has reverted to the multi-decade memory of the pain of not buying the dips.

> “Kevin is unironically at the "new paradigm" stage of the investment cycle. Massive top signal.”

Welcome to the Austrian economics crack-up boom.

> > Mate we never had a inflation problem between 2009 - 2019 coz we never printed trillions on hand outs, also the fed balance sheet has trillions on it before it slows down hikes.
>
> That's when QE started

@Meet Kevin unfortunately most people seem to be unaware that the supply boom was the peace dividend from the fall of Communism. That peace dividend is reverting now, but we’ll get a brief respite for some months until there’s escalation as Russia takes the Sulwaki Corridor after Lithuania broke their contracts for passage.

Comment:

My question turned out to be the key question. And my expectation for a 1720 top for wave B of ETH was correct. Luckily I sold.

Comment:

THE MOMENT OF TRUTH HAS ARRIVED ON WHETHER THE CRYPTO BOTTOM WAS IN JUNE. WE WILL SOON SEE IF WE BOUNCE FOR A WAVE 5 to HIGHER HIGHS OR IF IN A-B-C TERMINAL IMPULSE WITH A CRASH TO LOWER LOWS.

Comment:

Recapping what I had posted previously:

> “BTC, ETH and ADA prices respectively. My current outlook is for a potential continued relief rally tomorrow to ~21.9–22.8k, 1720–1820 and 0.48–0.50. with a decline into the end of the week to ~19.3–20.4k, 1475 and 0.40–0.43. A bull trap rally next week to ~25.7k, 2500 and 0.59–0.69. A decline into third week of September ~18.1–19.3k, 1300 and 0.40–0.45 (SPX to ~3980).”

> “Thus any additional 18% decline will likely be from ~$22.8k, thus not forming a lower low.”

> “I agree with the last chart 23:34 for a move up to ~$22.4k, then a drop to ~$19.2k.”

I annotated this quickly. Need to check some other facets but at least this is working hypothesis for the moment for maximum projected downside if not headed for a lower low.

Comment:

I am backing up the truck and loading up on this Powell speech FUD. The bottom was June.

The DXY is peaking and this always marks the bottom for BTC. Yet another of half-dozen indicators that Bitcoin bottomed!

(click for the chart referred to above)

Comment:

(Anticipating a Fed pivot is the stupidest thing on earth, says Ritholtz's Josh Brown)

Market is not pricing in a Fed pivot. That’s a strawman narrative. The market is pricing in rate hikes through the next 3 meetings at least.

(This is About to Trigger MAJOR SP500 Volatility | Just a Fake Bull Trap or the Real Deal?)

1:35 Market is not pricing in a Fed pivot. That’s a strawman narrative. The market is pricing in rate hikes through the next 3 meetings at least.

> “Markets aren't confused man. Markets are going down. Full stop. lol. Did we hear the same press conference? You say he was "neutral" in his tone but you're wrong. It was TOTALLY hawkish: ‘My message is direct...we will use our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance...likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth...’ ”

Nearly nothing has changed from the market had already priced in before, except a higher probability that September will be 75 basis points. The market was already pricing in three more rate hikes in 2023. Powell even said they may become dovish if inflation starts to moderate consistently. He did not say that 2% must be hit before they moderate (EDIT: and Mester explicitly stated they will not wait for 2% to moderate). The pundits spun this as all doom and gloom, but that is not what was communicated.

In fact review Yardeni Research’s chronological summary of Fed statements in 2019 and you can see it is the same climbing the Wall of Worry pattern repeating. The Fed gradually shifted their tone from hawkish to more moderate and the stock markets were making new ATHs in 2019. New ATHs incoming by Q1 2023 latest.

Comment:

> “@S. Moore And a word about market breadth from Charles Schwab (Aug 22):
> At the recent high, about 93% of stocks within the S&P 500 were trading above their 50-day moving averages—fitting the definition of a "breadth thrust." What makes it unique relative to others in history, however, is that the Federal Reserve is in an aggressive interest rate hiking campaign. Other than in February 2019 when the Fed was on hold, the nine other breadth surges off lows since 1975 all occurred during Fed easing campaigns (hat tip to our friends at Strategas for that stat). In addition, all 10 prior breadth surges (including 2019's) were accompanied by a positive 2y/10y yield spread. As most readers know, that yield spread is decidedly negative (inverted) today.
>
> Are you still sure you should use this indicator and ignore a deteriorating economy, yield spread, increasing downward forward earnings revisions, and QT?”

@Christopher L I elaborated on my reasoning on my public trading (view). For example, the Fed was not entirely paused in 2019 as they were still reigning in their balance sheet. The Yardeni Research document (Chronology of Fed’s Quantitative Easing & Tightening) I cited shows how the Fed gradually jawboned from hawkish (from 2017 to late 2018) to gradually and only slightly more dovish in early 2019 about the future possibility of being willing to eventually moderate that reduction of the balance sheet. By November 2019 they had entirely paused and the markets made one more surge higher before the corona dump. Albeit interest rates are rising now and a labor recession is approaching in 2023, the massive injection of monetary policy since 2020 is a massive hoard of cash sitting on the sidelines waiting to FOMO back in to risk on. The U.S. is at maximum employment and inflation is raging but declining. Inflation expectations leading by 3 to 4 months and they started dropping like a rock in May and only bounced from much lower levels in August. So we have a bullish few months ahead. Although savings rates are declining, accumulated cash is high. The DXY has massive, bearish RSI divergence and every time it has peaked, Bitcoin has bottomed. Game of Trades is correct that we are too early in the interest rate raising cycle to crash. As was the case in prior recessions, the markets make new ATHs while the Fed is raising, and do not crash until the Fed starts easing.

@Christopher L I have a model for Bitcoin on my public trading (view) which has a massive crash in late 2023 bottoming by Q1 2024 below 7k. Also note that each of the recent S&P major crashes have been increasing by a factor of 1.75. Thus the next one (ostensibly in Q4 2023) will be a -63% flash crash. So back up to a new ATH no later than Q1 2023 then the Fed is forced to moderate by worsening economy then another black swan event akin to the corona dump before the end of 2023. I bet it will be Russia invading Lithuania to take control of the Sulwaki Corridor after Lithuania violated their contracts for passage due to the intentional globalist sanctions as Rothschild is ushering in his legacy Bitcoin as the new world’s reserve currency per the model presented in John Nash’s Ideal Money manifesto (Jstor).

> “@S. Moore One more thing to add. Since you like contrarian indicators (I do too) consider this: The Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, compiled by US analyst Mark Hulbert, shows that bullishness among a subset of short-term traders who concentrate on the technology-focused Nasdaq market has reached an historical extreme.”

@Christopher L indeed the Nasdaq is overcooked and Bitcoin is undercooked. Expecting them to trade places on the next leg up as was the case after February 2019.

Comment:

> @S. Moore Cherry picking benchmarks can be dangerous. We have deteriorating economic conditions - consumers using credit card debt - now up to its highest level in years, major layoffs coming in, a growing inventory overhang, housing purchases going down, GDP growth going negative, major commodities still expensive (no change yesterday in spite of the stock market) and the FED promise to keep tightening. None of this was true when the last ATH was reached last year. Worry is about what might happen; these things are happening. And as far as pundits go the only two people I put any faith into are Michael Burry and Ray Dalio who have a long history of correct calls (long and short) and put their money where their mouth is. Ray Dalio runs the one of the largest and most successful hedge funds in the world; he is up for 2022. He uses very effective macro models and is rarely pessimistic. Today, he is negative on the US economy and the stock market.
>
> "The pundits spun this as all doom and gloom" Really? All I heard about during the rally to 4300 was about the FED pivot; not doom and gloom. Many pundits saying "if we have a recession it will not be that deep", "soft landing", etc. That does not sound very gloomy to me. Does an increased probability (from 50% to 60%) of 75 basis points in September move a market down like this? Or was because the market is starting to get convinced that Powell is not going to back down (early) from tightening?
>
> And one more thing -- in 2018 the FED was raising interest rates and reducing balance sheet assets -- tightening. The stock market underperformed that year starting at 2700, ending at 2500 with an average price around 2700 for the year. Got's analysis was not even correct.

@Christopher L so you really think with the majority of the market so bearish doom and gloom expectations that the markets will crash? Markets do the opposite of what the herd expects. This Powell FUD was to scare the weak hands into selling into the strong hands. I don’t think the breadth thrust was expectations of an imminent Fed pivot. Heck the market has been clearly pricing in 3 more interest rate increases in 2023 from the Fed. That is a strawman narrative I see all over the lamestream media, employed to scare the herd. The breadth surge was cash FOMOing back in as the smart money had been accumulating as every dip off the June bottom was bought up. Now we reset by scaring the f-ck out of the weak hands and repeat for the next leg up. This pullback is forming the right shoulder of what appears to maybe be a massive bullish, inverted H&S on the SPX. And I had been expecting that to form for the past weeks once I had identified the neckline to coincide roughly with the 200 daily MA.

@Christopher L inverted yield curves are an early signal that correspond with final bull trap moves to ATHs. The 2018 decline as the Fed was raising has already completed in 2022 as the market priced it all in rapidly perhaps because of the negative GDP Q1 figure scaring the f-ck out of everyone and then the capitulation in June with the rebounding CPI. Thus I posit the 2019 cycle already started as of the June bottom. Heck we have half dozen indicators that have flashed the Bitcoin bottom already. There was a daily bullish RSI divergence on the June Bitcoin bottom on the CME (not on spot price). The stock markets also had a daily (and weekly?) bullish RSI divergence on the June bottom. Ostensibly GoT’s timing mistake (as was him being too early bullish in 2022) is he didn’t wait for the final capitulation. I was warning in comments before May 2022 that the RSI was still too high.

@Christopher L yes the economy will start to roll over by 2023 but in the meantime there is a massive cash hoard waiting to FOMO back in once the lamestream media narrative pivots again. Maybe the media was pitching the Fed pivot thesis recently (I wasn’t seeing it but I do not watch TV) but fact remains is the futures pricing markets had already priced in the incoming Fed rate hikes and there was already a significant probability of a 75 basis hike for Sept. So nothing has changed since Powell’s FUD other than (perhaps an ephemeral spike in the probability of a 75 basis increase and) the media spooking the sheep. Did you know a herd of sheep actually keeled over and died after being scared by some barking dogs? 🤣 Powell and Mester both said that if inflation continues to come down they will moderate their tone (which is repeating what occurred in 2019 and besides I have a repeating broadening wedge for Bitcoin which had alerted me in summer 2021 that 2019 would repeat in 2022 so I had been predicting the double top and crash to $20k since summer 2021 and all publicly shared on my trading (view)). And the precipitous drop in inflation expectation since May tells us that the inflation will continue to drop over the next few months until at least Nov/Dec. These current dead cat bounces for commodities, Treasuries and dollar all formed bearish RSI divergences. The Euro can’t go straight to zero in one move. Euro vs dollar parity is a logical level for a dead cat bounce for a few months.

@Christopher L the recession is likely to be soft in most of 2023 (after we get through the rough winter in Europe without natural gas) only requiring a slight moderation from the Fed to keep the markets buoyed (as was the case in Q4 2019) and then comes the repeating black swan, probably an act of war that invokes the NATO mutual defense treaty that officially launches WW3. China will force the U.S. to fight on two fronts by blockading Taiwan eventually as well. Between China and N. Korea that’s a 2.5 million troops. I wonder if China and Russia have the lift capacity to transport them for an Alaskan invasion?

Comment:

> “Game of Trades is correct that we are too early in the interest rate raising cycle to crash. As was the case in prior recessions, the markets make new ATHs while the Fed is raising, and do not crash until the Fed starts easing.”

MUST WATCH:

Comment:

Already breadth back down below 65%. Note it bounced from this level in 2019. Probably more SPX (S&P) downside on Monday to 3960:

Comment:

In his private blog today Martin Armstrong is contemplating some insane volatility this upcoming week.

He contemplates the possibility of a massive reversal to new highs by Friday.

He wrote that often highs come on trading day before Labor Day holiday (Sept 5 this year).

The panic FUD selling thrust low on Friday looks like a slingshot coiling to me.

Comment:

Armstrong’s expectation would be consistent with the mathematician’s two recent published ideas both expected an insane rally to highs this incoming week:

Comment:

Bitcoin holding support at $19.8k?

Comment:

Amazing this this guy’s Fib circles keep predicting major moves.

OPTICALARTdotCOM is now bragging that Bitcoin will come down to his red line ~$7k by November.

Note Armstrong did mention in his private blog the possibility of a high this incoming week and a low in November.

Comment:

@OPTICALARTdotCOM 7:05 you’re gloating now with surety the price will drop to $7k by November. I am going to make sure I document the exact video and juncture where you made this insulting claim against those who present other ideas in your comments. Your scenario is not impossible but highly improbable. I have a series of extensive comments explaining in detail why you likely misconstrue the macro environment and thus fail to understand why the markets will be heading to new ATHs soon. Here is the link which must be copy and pasted (not clicked):

——

@OPTICALARTdotCOM additionally you blindly draw a posited H&S pattern (which is malformed on the right shoulder thus invalid because your $22.8k pump failed at $21.8k) but failed to see that pattern does not exist on Ethereum, the S&P nor Nasdaq. So that should be a hint to you that instead the T/A pattern was the rising wedge that Bitcoin fell out and which projected exactly to the $19.8k price it dropped too. What will be your excuse if the price rallies to new highs this coming week? The S&P appears to be forming the right-shoulder of a massively bullish, inverted H&S projecting up to new ATHs. The DXY and U.S. Treasuries have massive bearish RSI divergence. Bitcoin has a half-dozen indicators which have flashed the bottom. Every time the DXY peaks then Bitcoin has bottomed. You better pray your insulting arrogance is correct, else we are going to publicize far and wide this arrogant claim in this video. I was trying to appreciate you, but you are closed-minded a.f.. What is your retort to the points I made to you last time that the red line of relevance could be the upper thin one on your chart, not the lower thicker one? And that the price does not always come back down to the red line on every maximum and minimum of the DXY as was the case in Oct/Nov 2019. Your only response is to fail to address the points and double-down arrogantly.

Comment:

Mathematician replied:

> > “@shelby3 definitely seeing that slingshot, I should have waited for the capitulation before jumping the gun. Got that on Friday no doubt massive shakeout”
>
> “@JerryManders, it helped it happened on a Friday. The move was exacerbated as they love to play with people’s emotions before a weekend."

@Chartguru1, c.f. my reply to @JerryManders. Not sure if you were notified.

> > “@shelby3, agreed. Everyone looking for new lows. Etc. They will get creamed this week.”
>
> “@Chartguru1 for sure, likely this will turn out to be a typical wave 4 and we’re heading to wave 5 this week. The shakeout made it oversold and unstable to the downside which can give us the escape velocity to see explosive move up”

@JerryManders, well maybe not typical if wave 4 has retraced to top of wave 1 then wave 5 may barely make higher high thus keep in mind a lower 4400 target?

> “@shelby3 I’m seeing 4500 by Sep 9, that’s interesting to know tho - new highs by Friday??”

@JerryManders, his weekly Forecast Array for the DJIA has the Aggregate and Empirical peaks for the week starting Aug 29. Followed by massive, gaping volatility the week of Sep 12 and a low week of Sep 19 which initiates a Trading Cycle. Volatility increases again week of Oct 3 with a Panic Cycle week of Oct 17. Week of Aug 22 was also a Panic Cycle which was fulfilled. Panic Cycles can be in either direction although the Aggregate will often indicate the direction and it was down for week of Aug 22 and up for week of Oct 17 (presuming the meaning of Aggregate w.r.t. price doesn’t flip).

Should we expect price to A-B-C bottom by late Sep or early Oct, then start ascending again Oct 17? Or if his model is meaningful, would Oct 17 be the final thrust of a correction from posited incoming Sep high?

On his monthly DJIA Forecast Array the entire month of Sept is a Panic Cycle, Oct is a low, Nov is a weaker Trading Cycle and Jan is an Aggregate high, Long-term and full Trading Cycle. Note the Aggregate high can flip meaning to the low price and the low would mean a bear trap bounce high in that case. For some unstated reasoning (other than rumors that Trump will be indicted and/or all illegal immigrants will be granted citizenship to vote by illegal Brandon E.O.) Armstrong posited that this might mean a high in Sep and declining price to a low in Nov. There is another Aggregate high in Apr which is also a Directional Change and nearly full Long-term with May a Panic Cycle and green Trading Cycle, followed by June as the low and Long-term. Feedback? Thus the following was my attempt to interpret these forecasts applied to the S&P. Bear in mind that with such a deep wave 4 then wave 5 might not break out of the blue downtrend line and instead top out 4400:

Comment:

It is always best to buy when we are maximally afraid it will go lower. Control emotions and make logical risk vs. reward decisions.

Half-dozen Bitcoin indicators have flashed the bottom and BTC is near to the bottom again. Ostensibly the massive FUD sell-off on Friday was purely emotional as nothing substantive changed in the Fed’s message — the market was already pricing in an additional 3 Fed funds hikes this year? The market had been rising on increasing FOMO as the price was leaving the train station; and as best as I can discern NOT primarily on expectations of Fed pivot before Q1 2023 — the FUD narrative pitched by the media to amplify the panic sell-off. Panic selloffs can be capitulation bottom confirmations — the bullish inverted H&S pattern forming on the S&P is not bearish pointing to new lows? The smart money ostensibly realizes (and/or the natural market dynamics confirms/materializes) that (per my numerous YT comments ← copy and paste the link as clicking the link does not seem to take me to the comments plural) market wipeouts do not historically occur until the labor recession starts which is not until the Fed starts easing. Cash savings accumulated from the 2020 stimulus is on the sidelines nervous about failing to “buy the f-cking dip” (BTFD). Consequently most people will end up buying the f-cking top 5200 – 5500, lol. Then with market crashing the Fed will be forced to ease and S&P back up to ~5900 before the -63% flash crash in Q3 to Q4 2023 or as late as Q1 2024 with the plausible event catalyst when Russia invades Lithuania. Ostensibly may be essentially 2019 repeating again yet with some fractal wave interference altering the structure perhaps as I have posited on my published ideas.

An outlier to our thesis of Sept highs is YTuber Eric Krown Crypto’s dubious model of arbitrarily chosen random variables (where is the comprehensive Chi-squared test for independence against all possible such arbitrarily chosen metrics?) for historical volatility expansion models on various time frames which is signaling that the expected massive incoming move will be to the downside if the 5-day stoch is below $21k and 2-day stoch is below $24k on the close Sunday (which they both were).

Comment:

Remember two weeks ago I had posited his blue ring would be the bottom.

(My next heavy bitcoin long trade! its closer than you think. | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

So now after insulting me in your prior video at 7:05 you admit in this video I was probably correct that the bottom will likely be at the blue ring!

> “Cassino ! the price nowadays is aleatory,manipulated . there is no reason to any pump ... but still happens anyway... Cassino !!!!”

Incorrect. There is every reason for it to pump. The S&P has a bullish inverted H&S pattern forming and this dip was wave 4 heading next up to the 4400 then coming back down again to form the right shoulder. OpticalArt is likely incorrect about it coming back down to his thick red line at ~$7.5k by Nov/Dec. Instead markets will counter intuitively head back up to new ATHs first by Q1 2023 at the latest. There will be another corona-like flash crash but that is coming late in 2023. And it will be a doozy probably -63% on the S&P and -95% on Bitcoin.

The mistake OpticalArt is likely making is that his upper thin red line is taking precedence for a triple top (or double-double actually) before the mega crash to his lower thick red trend line. What OpticalArt does not realize is that historically the recession mega crash does not come until the labor recession when the Fed starts to ease. The U.S. is still at maximum employment. Look back at prior recessions as Game of Trades has done and you see that there is a fake out rally to new ATHs when the Fed starts raising. We are essentially repeating 2019 again. I have explained this in great detail on my public trading view citing much data.

Comment:

I wrote previously:

> “The Euro can’t go straight to zero in one move. Euro vs dollar parity is a logical level for a dead cat bounce for a few months.”

(European Central Bank's Rehn: It's Action Time With Weak Euro a Key Point)

And now as Monday approaches comes the counter points with ECB to also become more hawkish which may stop the DXY’s rise at parity for a while. As I expected of course.

(Euro-Dollar Driven More by Energy Than Fed, ECB: Juckes)

He says long dollar trade is crowded. He do not think anyone hasn’t spotted that trade. He doesn’t think the pound will drop below 1.10.

Comment:

Mathematician also approved of my detailed comments on another of his published ideas. You all would be well informed to re-read my comments there above his reply.

> “@shelby3 couldn’t agree more”

Comment:

As expected, now the media is spinning the positive take on Powell’s speech that price inflation is already on the way down. The public’s emotions are being manipulated due to information asymmetry: the public does not all read my TradingView.

(Economics professor decodes Fed chair's inflation comments)

Comment:

Click following for chart:

(Attention ETH Holders: DO THIS NOW)

ETH likely to repeat that quick double-top again this week as it did in 2019 if you squint you can see it squished in there (and I think a bit higher as high as ~2500) and then down we go into October before the real bull rally towards ATHs.

Comment:

> “I overestimated the wave B, I’m expecting wave C here though to complete over the weekend and then very bullish next week. I’m already seeing beginning signs of accumulation”

@JerryManders, what do you think of this posited EW count? I do not think SPX will reach 4500, instead only 4400. I do not think ETH will make significantly higher highs. I think you are overestimating the amount of energy remaining in this thrust off the bottom. I think the right shoulder of an inverted H&S has to develop over the rest of September into early October after this wave 5?

Comment:

(Bitcoin price prediction! I charted the future and I see what's coming!)

The DJIA is probably going to move up your next outer ring before coming down to much lower targets. The mega crash will be in 2023, not 2022. I explained why in my comments on your prior video. We will see if you are correct about ~7.5k by Nov/Dec. I explained in my comments on the prior video why that is not likely. Perhaps this recession could be different than the prior ones and the mega crash occurs while the Fed is raising and not yet in a labor recession? Never happened before. The mega crash always happens when the Fed starts easing because the labor recession has ensued. I am afraid you are going to end up with egg on your face.

Comment:

Here’s some mention (17:25) of the likely September surprises coming on the rationing and capitol controls front I alluded to previously.

(Crypto News: ETH, ADA, Twitter, Jackson Hole, BlackRock & More!)

Comment:

An argument for $16.4k in September:

(Bitcoin The Best & Worst Case Scenario For September w/ FiboSwanny)

Comment:

@Mike Barber I do not want to search back to see if you wrote the comment about the low savings rate, but note accumulated savings is not low. The market is flush with cash on the sidelines waiting to FOMO stampede back in. Also another key point is that international capital is fleeing every country and rushing into the dollar. It is not going to leave, instead will rotate into investments when the time is right. The labor recession will not begin until Q1 2023. The FOMO is likely to have an episode before then. Everyone who did not BTFD over the past decades has been crushed. Why a mega crash now if I am correct that 2019 is repeating? I explained in why it is repeating. You may want to review that analysis.

Comment:

> “@S. Moore Fed lowered rates in 2019...I had to look it up...75 basis points total in the latter half of the year.”

@Mike Barber the markets rallied significantly in the first half of 2019, while the rates were paused but QT was ongoing. I argue this June crash already priced in all the raises ahead as the markets have become very attuned to the future’s market pricing of the final rate. And the Russian war FUD amplified everything. Also the inflation expectations are a 3 to 4 month leading indicator which started dropping in May, so price inflation may be rapidly declining this month.

Comment:

Worth listening on double-speed:

(Top 5 Altcoins in September – HONEST FACTS)

Comment:

Remember I had warned that wave 4 could come back down into top of wave 1 because wave 2 had retraced more than 61.8% of wave 1. This is a terminal impulse condition in Elliot Wave theory that most people are unaware of.

Thus I think we can conclude wave 5 will barely top wave 3, thus I am expecting 4400.

Note the daily chart VIX is repeating the spike of March 7, 2019 as I posited. Not in 2019 the pattern was the VIX immediately crashed, then catapulted back up again by March 20. I am positing this pattern might repeat. Looks like S&P will bottom 3900 today and the VIX is reaching the overhead resistance I had diagrammed on the weekly chart.

There are 3 drives of bullish RSI divergence now for this OANDA:SPX500 decline.

Comment:

Three ideas.

Comment:

This idea still seems to be playing out even though wave B was overestimated.

Comment:

@Chartguru1, do you mean buying any dip after hitting 5200+ by Q1 2023? Or do you mean my posited -63% flash crash after hitting ~5900? My model is 2019 is more or less repeating but with some potential fractal wave constructive interference. Thus I expect an initial high Q4 2022 to Q1 2023, then a reaccumulation while the Fed is forced to become more dovish with the labor recession ensuing. That dovish stance will propel a final move to ~5900 as was the case in late 2019 into January before the March 2020 flash crash. My posited reason for the Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 flash crash might be the beginning of WW3 with Russia launching an invasion of Lithuania and/or the use of nuclear weapons. This is guess work of course. If the posited flash crash mimics 2020, then it should be bought immediately as the Fed will be forced to Brrrr $trillions again.

Comment:

(WARNING! SEPTEMBER WILL BE A BITCOIN BLOODBATH!!!)

The potential flaw in your estimate for the price of the bottom is that this cycle bottom might be a wave 4 and wave 5 ATH is still incoming. It appears that the flash crash of March 2020 also factors into the projection, thus the percentage decline will be significantly less than your -79% estimate. The mega crash is coming in Q4 2023, especially if Bitcoin is still in wave 4 with wave 5 ATH incoming first.

Comment:

To expound a bit on the EW count, major wave 2 that ended March 2020 retraced more than 61.8% of wave 1. Most people do not know this creates a terminal impulse condition in which all waves take the form A-B-C instead of 1-2-3-4-5. Thus the April 2021 peak was A, the summer 2021 decline was B and the November 2021 top was C forming wave 3. Now we had a A-B-C correction already and the bottom was in June.

Comment:

(A Major RED Flag Just Flashed on the SP500 This Week)

The size of the pullback after moves with 95% of S&P above 50 DMA, seems to correlate with the depth of the correction relative to the prior peak before the bull run. Thus we should be expecting a pullback between 5.2 and 9.8%.

Comment:

> “Dont get it, where do you get the information that inflation will roll over? What indicators do indicate that it will roll over?”

Multiple leading indicators. He (GoT) showed one of them in this video. Have you not observed the gas prices in the U.S. drop from $5.40 to $3.80? Used car and housing prices are also declining.

> “Game of trades has been completely wrong with the financial advice of buying stocks”

His timing is poor. He was too early in 2018 and 2022. And he was too late in 2020. He needs to improve his game. I tried to warn him but he did not listen. However, does appear to be learning and his thesis today is probably correct. Too many people expecting a lower low.

> “What about the VIX RSI momentum which just broke above its trendline starting from 26 November 2021?”

My VIX chart shows overhead resistance 28 to 29. SPX should be heading back up to 4400.

> “Fed raises rates and risks recession to lower inflation. White House and Congress spend more taxpayer money and raise inflation. What could possibly go wrong?”

Everything can go wrong and will. But in Q4 2023 is when you will see the -63% flash crash on the SPX and -99% on Bitcoin.

> “i remember a few weeks ago, you said, we don't care about the short term down side, cause the bigger picture is we going to new all time high... so don't worry just keep buying the dip.. lol”

GoT doesn’t attempt to be a short-term thesis trader. Here he is arguing (and I think correctly) that a pullback to ~3900 would be consistent with not making lower lows. Too many people scared by FUD and expecting lower lows, thus probably not going to happen.

> “Bank of Canada announce end of cycle sept 6th, last big hike. Pivot to data going forward.”

Too many myopic people do not seem to realize that as the Fed (and now Bank of Canada) pivot to data driven, it means that coming drop in CPI is going to moderate their rate increases and the stock markets are going to moon. But we have choppiness first until October.

> “The market only went back up in June because shorts covered. Now SPY has 60% short volume (dark pool) the question is, do we bounce off of 390 resistance and have shorts cover sending the market higher? Or do we crash tomorrow with the jobs data released tomorrow.”

Another short squeeze perhaps as high as 4400 by next week. The crash liquidated all the longs. Time to go back up. Too many people bearish expecting the worst too soon. Will there be a capitulation crash first on the payroll report?

> “@S. Moore that is the question, but we won’t go above 432. No chance we go above the 61.8% fibonacci retracement, if we do it would indicate the start of a new bull cycle which literally can’t happen right now as p/e collapses during next earnings period. Not when fed is trying to tank the market”

@Rory Coles if ~4300 was top of wave 3 off the June bottom, then wave 5 can take us to ~4400. I was expecting wave 4 to retrace to top of wave 1 because that is a terminal impulse EW when wave 2 retraces more than 61.8% of wave 1 as it did. However sometimes in terminal impulse waves all up waves also have an A-B-C pattern in which case the incoming bounce may not move back above the ~4300 high. Note you seem to be assuming a lower low than the June bottom after that but I do not. I am expecting a new ATH no later than Q1 2023.

@Rory Coles in short, leading indicators says price inflation will start dropping. Fed pivots to 50 or 25 basis hikes by October. Market moons. Most people are totally fooled by the Powell FUD.

Comment:

> “I didn't hear you mention tomorrow's non-farm payroll report. If above expectations we could see a low volume holiday dive that slices right through SPX 3.9k.”

Maybe. A capitulation move would be nice to buy.

> “Those maximum drawdowns were in the context of easy money, not tightening money. You can't ignore that, has to be mentioned along with the technical analysis. More likely than not that we get to SPY 325 area, in quick fashion, before we really bottom.”

Too many people expecting that lower low.

> “Stop comparing post 08 drawdowns when the feds started to print moneu and reduce interest rates. We are in the opposite enviroment. Highter interest and the reduction of the feds bs.”

Leading indicators of price inflation have been coming down since May and July. The market sentiment is overly bearish as if the Fed will never slowdown rate hikes again. Yet that slowdown aka “pivot” is likely by October. Markets are forward pricing machines. You can not just have a monotonic, unsophisticated thinking that doesn’t weight all factors including the massive 2020 stimulus which is now cash sitting on the sidelines waiting to FOMO back at the first sign that the worst is behind us until 2023. The labor recession won’t be until Q1 2023.

> “@S. Moore yeah i agree the market wont crash until unemployment will decrease and companys earning start to go down. That will take time. Even tho inflation going down its going take time for the 2 percent target. The feds wont pivot anytime soon”

@gurinder singh Fed governor Mester specifically said they do not need to reach 2% to pivot. Also the pivot from 75 to 50 or 25 basis point raises by October is the pivot that will cause the markets to moon. Too many people are fooled by bearish semantic illusions.

> “The Fed WANTS to wreck risk assets to quench the wealth effect and reduce demand which will lower CPI. However, Fed doesn't want to break the market funding mechanisms.”

Fed is data driven now. As CPI declines and labor market cools, the Fed will back off the 75 basis hikes after September. This is the pivot coming by October yet market is currently so bearish as if no pivot is coming. The housing and used cars prices are dropping. Gas is down from $5.40 to $3.80 in the U.S.A..

> “Your bull case was peak inflation and easing coming soon all year. You’ve been wrong all year and won’t admit it. And you’re about to be very wrong when the waterfall sell of comes.”

No he (GoT) will finally be correct. He was too early in 2018 also, but ultimately he was correct. Wash, rinse, repeat.

> “Question: Dod you still believe that you are correct in your prediction that the S&P will go to ALL TIME NEW HIGH's? You said 5,200 was what your charts told you. ???”

That is very likely. Then a correction into summer 2021 with the Fed easing driving back up to ~5900 by Q4 2023, then a -63% flash crash on SPX and -99% on Bitcoin. I am posited that flash crash to be Russia invading Lithuania starting WW3 versus NATO.

Comment:

> “Thechnikal correct but the sentiment it's diferent this thime. The times we had no inflation. The fed keeped printimg Money. Now we have self feeding inflation. And the fed will rise intrest Rates and hold it high until inflation is fought. I Thing this time it will be diferent. So we can not Look in the paßt to predict the Future. I think we will See faling markets until supply chane problems are solve and energy crisys is finish...”

That sentiment has most people positioned on the wrong side of the trade as price inflation starts dropping and the Fed pivots to 50 or 25 basis point hikes by October.

> “Looking a drawdowns during the most recent decade bull run. I have said in the comments section of these videos repeatedly recently. Look at Volcker and the keep rates high until Inflation is defeated. So the pivot was never happening quickly after peak inflation as per your thesis. We've seen from the Fed comments exactly what I had been saying on here for week. High rates for longer and none of that involves a pivot soon and it all involves much higher rate expectations than the market had priced in.”

The majority are bearish like you. So what do you think will happen then? Duh.

> “@S. Moore Just because people are bearish doesn't mean they're wrong. Also perma bears are just broken clocks. My thesis has been simple, end of a secular bull run driven by high inflation resulting in high interest rates. It's fundamentally simple because seeing the end of the bull runs isn't ever that difficult”

@Conor Byrne find my numerous other more detailed replies on this and the prior GoT video for the explanation of why your monotonic thesis is likely incorrect. The bull market has not ended. That will be Q4 2023 from which there will be a -63% crash from the ~5900 level. Note the majority was not bearish in late 2021 and earlier in 2022. Your bearish trade is getting crowded now.

Comment:

Ron Walker incorrectly claims that the bullish structure is broken by wave 4 retracing to top of wave 1 and 2:

(Stock Market CRASH: S&P 500 Bullish Elliott Wave Count Now Invalidated (SPX QQQ IWM Investing))

Seems nearly nobody understands the terminal impulse EW condition:

(Chapter 9 - Terminal Impulse - Part 1)

The wave 5 can move very fast up because everyone misinterprets and goes short causing a rapid short squeeze.

c.f. Bitcoin's Ominous "terminal impulse"
(scroll down)

Note wave 5 can fail though.

Bitcoin bottom to be or not to be?

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