I have linked my past Related Ideas above the comments section and below all my discussion of this idea herein, so that you can see the progression of my attempt to understand this megaphone pattern I had identified in the summer of 2021 concomitant with my posited posited ANYONECANSPEND attack which I have been harping about publicly for a several years now.
As I was updating the discussion today (July 1) of my prior, recent, published idea Bitcoin bottom to be or not to be?, I suddenly stumbled upon an explanation (rationalization?) of my prior misunderstandings and potentially clarity about the current Elliot Wave structure of Bitcoin which suddenly came more clearly into view.
> “How prescient I was. If I had only been more confident and put more effort into monitoring my insight. Unfortunately I wasn’t following Ron Walker in 2021”
Actually I see now why I got confused in Q1 2022 and bought the dip prematurely, because I had my upper pink trendline for my megaphone pattern too steeply sloped. Thus I did not realize where in the pattern that Q1 2022 final bull trap bounce was! Now I realize it corresponded to that bull trap bounce in October 2019 on my repeating megaphone pattern hypothesis.
Luckily I am realizing this before it is too late to expect a $12 – $13k bottom and to be aware the bounce may be only to $48 – 53k. But does $48k come before $13k?
Note likely to get some short-term bounce from current low or a slightly lower low (but above $14k) before any if any plummet to the egregious lows. So as to create some hopium that bottom is in and that major wave #4 is above the top of wave #1 so hopium that can still go to new ATHs. Because suddenly the crypto sector has turned bearish and too many people are expecting the washout imminently. Markets tend to do opposite of what the herd expects.
SUMMARY
So what has changed in my expectations is that I now expect Bitcoin has either bottomed or will bottom in July (perhaps during this 3 day holiday weekend) and positing that Bitcoin will rally from September to December only up to overhead resistance $47 – $53k — not to a new ATH as speculated in my aforementioned prior, recent, published. This would presumably create the bull trap for the egregious next leg lower in price in 2023 which would fulfill the ‘terminal impulse’ Elliot Wave situation which I had identified previously due to the corona dump in March 2020 wherein wave #2 crashed below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave #1. I will elaborate on this EW theory in the following discussion after publishing this idea.
I was close to understanding this when I published on May 23 My Dec. 2021 $13k Prediction Coming to Fruition? wherein I wrote as follows...
Back in December 2021 (and I think going back even to summer 2021 if you want to search back in my published ideas), I had identified a potential repeating megaphone wedge pattern and for my Feb 26 published idea (and actually months before that as well) I had identified a repeating Fibonacci extension pattern. Also the terminal Elliot Wave situation I had identified earlier in 2021.
So by the March 8 update on my prior published idea, I had already identified what has transpired since. Here were those charts I published on March 8:
I got closer to understanding when I added the following comment to said published idea on June 5:
I mentioned that maybe the Terminal Impulse {3} wave had completed, which requires wave {4} to drop below $14k. Given the situation the Fed is in, I thus believe the outlook is much worse. After a bounce to ~$50k by Sept (retracing 0.786 as it did in 2019) after June crash, then another crash to fill the $9.8k CME gap. That crash will force the Fed to turn back on the money printers but the global situation is too dire to send markets into the stratosphere again. We’ve got to be wise with buys and sells to survive in the markets from here on. My prior idea was too optimistic.
As I was updating the discussion today (July 1) of my prior, recent, published idea Bitcoin bottom to be or not to be?, I suddenly stumbled upon an explanation (rationalization?) of my prior misunderstandings and potentially clarity about the current Elliot Wave structure of Bitcoin which suddenly came more clearly into view.
> “How prescient I was. If I had only been more confident and put more effort into monitoring my insight. Unfortunately I wasn’t following Ron Walker in 2021”
Actually I see now why I got confused in Q1 2022 and bought the dip prematurely, because I had my upper pink trendline for my megaphone pattern too steeply sloped. Thus I did not realize where in the pattern that Q1 2022 final bull trap bounce was! Now I realize it corresponded to that bull trap bounce in October 2019 on my repeating megaphone pattern hypothesis.
Luckily I am realizing this before it is too late to expect a $12 – $13k bottom and to be aware the bounce may be only to $48 – 53k. But does $48k come before $13k?
Note likely to get some short-term bounce from current low or a slightly lower low (but above $14k) before any if any plummet to the egregious lows. So as to create some hopium that bottom is in and that major wave #4 is above the top of wave #1 so hopium that can still go to new ATHs. Because suddenly the crypto sector has turned bearish and too many people are expecting the washout imminently. Markets tend to do opposite of what the herd expects.
SUMMARY
So what has changed in my expectations is that I now expect Bitcoin has either bottomed or will bottom in July (perhaps during this 3 day holiday weekend) and positing that Bitcoin will rally from September to December only up to overhead resistance $47 – $53k — not to a new ATH as speculated in my aforementioned prior, recent, published. This would presumably create the bull trap for the egregious next leg lower in price in 2023 which would fulfill the ‘terminal impulse’ Elliot Wave situation which I had identified previously due to the corona dump in March 2020 wherein wave #2 crashed below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave #1. I will elaborate on this EW theory in the following discussion after publishing this idea.
I was close to understanding this when I published on May 23 My Dec. 2021 $13k Prediction Coming to Fruition? wherein I wrote as follows...
Back in December 2021 (and I think going back even to summer 2021 if you want to search back in my published ideas), I had identified a potential repeating megaphone wedge pattern and for my Feb 26 published idea (and actually months before that as well) I had identified a repeating Fibonacci extension pattern. Also the terminal Elliot Wave situation I had identified earlier in 2021.
So by the March 8 update on my prior published idea, I had already identified what has transpired since. Here were those charts I published on March 8:
I got closer to understanding when I added the following comment to said published idea on June 5:
I mentioned that maybe the Terminal Impulse {3} wave had completed, which requires wave {4} to drop below $14k. Given the situation the Fed is in, I thus believe the outlook is much worse. After a bounce to ~$50k by Sept (retracing 0.786 as it did in 2019) after June crash, then another crash to fill the $9.8k CME gap. That crash will force the Fed to turn back on the money printers but the global situation is too dire to send markets into the stratosphere again. We’ve got to be wise with buys and sells to survive in the markets from here on. My prior idea was too optimistic.
Comment:
Zoomed out:
Comment:
Thus expecting at least a wick below the prior wave #1 high of $13.9k for the final bottom. But now positing that the final bottom will come after the wave B (bounce) to ~$50k as diagrammed A-B-C on my chart. This will entirely fulfill the terminal impulse Elliot Wave condition where wave #2 for March 2020 cerveza sickness dump retraced more than log Fib 68.1% of wave #1. Contrary to what many people think (and read on the Internet) this ‘terminal impulse’ still allows wave #5 to make a new ATH with the only difference being that all five waves have a corrective A-B-C structure which explains that double peak for wave #3 for example.
Details I originally linked on October 17, 2021 in my published idea Bitcoin Elliot Wave Theory:
How much can wave-2 retrace of wave-1? Most orthodox EW analysts allow 99%, but it appears NEoWave only allows about 61.8%.
“It is during Terminal patterns that wave-2 is allowed to retrace as much as 99% of wave-1, but never 100% or more. ”
Webinar: Terminal Impulse ← important and informative
NeoWave. Part 12. Impulsions and the rules to analyze impulse wave patterns
Can a Terminal impulse end with a 5th wave failure?
Details I originally linked on October 17, 2021 in my published idea Bitcoin Elliot Wave Theory:
How much can wave-2 retrace of wave-1? Most orthodox EW analysts allow 99%, but it appears NEoWave only allows about 61.8%.
“It is during Terminal patterns that wave-2 is allowed to retrace as much as 99% of wave-1, but never 100% or more. ”
Webinar: Terminal Impulse ← important and informative
NeoWave. Part 12. Impulsions and the rules to analyze impulse wave patterns
Can a Terminal impulse end with a 5th wave failure?
Comment:
This is what gave me the epiphany for this newly published idea on this page.
{ Album }
VERY IMPORTANT
Ron Walker thinks if $13.9k is breached, BTC can’t make a new ATH (because ostensibly isn’t aware of the ‘terminal impulse’ so I emailed him to inform him) and instead he thinks will just bounce for wave B in an A-B-C correction that will make an ever lower low after the wave B bounce. Whatever the case, the $15 – $16.6k area looks like possible area for more short-term bounce (to perhaps $23 – 28k) if not the current lows.
youtu.be/BZ5WZs8WL-E?t=405
(The Bitcoin Elliott Wave Count Suggests One More Dump To Bottom - BTCs Next Leg Down Likely Underway)
My new BTC chart interpretation!! Meaning the wave B bounce only to $47 – 51k. Note Bitcoin didn’t make new ATH on either rally during 2019 even though S&P did, presumably because no Fed QE until 2020. So S&P could make ATH and be in an Ending Diagonal (as Ron Walker has posited) but with BTC to underperform! This chart is dire, as it says something very bad happens later this year or Q1 2023. Russia invades Lithuania? Inflation will spike up again.
Here was the first variant of my newly published idea:
{ Album }
VERY IMPORTANT
Ron Walker thinks if $13.9k is breached, BTC can’t make a new ATH (because ostensibly isn’t aware of the ‘terminal impulse’ so I emailed him to inform him) and instead he thinks will just bounce for wave B in an A-B-C correction that will make an ever lower low after the wave B bounce. Whatever the case, the $15 – $16.6k area looks like possible area for more short-term bounce (to perhaps $23 – 28k) if not the current lows.
youtu.be/BZ5WZs8WL-E?t=405
(The Bitcoin Elliott Wave Count Suggests One More Dump To Bottom - BTCs Next Leg Down Likely Underway)
My new BTC chart interpretation!! Meaning the wave B bounce only to $47 – 51k. Note Bitcoin didn’t make new ATH on either rally during 2019 even though S&P did, presumably because no Fed QE until 2020. So S&P could make ATH and be in an Ending Diagonal (as Ron Walker has posited) but with BTC to underperform! This chart is dire, as it says something very bad happens later this year or Q1 2023. Russia invades Lithuania? Inflation will spike up again.
Here was the first variant of my newly published idea:
Comment:
Zoomed out more:
Comment:
{ Album }
We need roughly (perhaps slightly more or less) another month equivalent to June in July to bring bring the monthly chart Accumulation/Distribution down to the level for a bottom. That would project to ~$12.5k for a closing price for July. Note the trendline E.K.C. is employing on this chart and this methodology is inexact, so any particular translation to a bottom price is fraught to span a wide range of possibilities (even higher or lower than $12.5k). The key takeaway is significant more downside required. Avg downside projects to $15.7k. May linger in doldrums for 3 – 4 months if mimics 2018/9 instead of 2020.
Notice the blip of green in 2019 before back red on corona crash
He again speculates that a closing today above ~$19.2k or perhaps a bit lower than that next week, could imply that 15 – 49% bounce I mentioned. We need to wait for that short-term confirmation signal, because otherwise risk is still weighted to downside for July overall. Front run at your own risk.
youtu.be/J2d6QgETExY?t=77
(Bitcoin Macro Nobody Wants To See This Chart For Price … click to the see the charts I am referring to)
> “Notice the blip of green in 2019 before back red on corona crash”
Expecting a repeat of this? $16.6k low this month. Moderate (15 – 49%) bounce then $15.5k low September that brings the red Accumulation/Distribution to expected bottom. Then blip into green end of year then back into red for another higher low bottom Q1 2023 on that indicator (lower low BTC price).
We need roughly (perhaps slightly more or less) another month equivalent to June in July to bring bring the monthly chart Accumulation/Distribution down to the level for a bottom. That would project to ~$12.5k for a closing price for July. Note the trendline E.K.C. is employing on this chart and this methodology is inexact, so any particular translation to a bottom price is fraught to span a wide range of possibilities (even higher or lower than $12.5k). The key takeaway is significant more downside required. Avg downside projects to $15.7k. May linger in doldrums for 3 – 4 months if mimics 2018/9 instead of 2020.
Notice the blip of green in 2019 before back red on corona crash
He again speculates that a closing today above ~$19.2k or perhaps a bit lower than that next week, could imply that 15 – 49% bounce I mentioned. We need to wait for that short-term confirmation signal, because otherwise risk is still weighted to downside for July overall. Front run at your own risk.
youtu.be/J2d6QgETExY?t=77
(Bitcoin Macro Nobody Wants To See This Chart For Price … click to the see the charts I am referring to)
> “Notice the blip of green in 2019 before back red on corona crash”
Expecting a repeat of this? $16.6k low this month. Moderate (15 – 49%) bounce then $15.5k low September that brings the red Accumulation/Distribution to expected bottom. Then blip into green end of year then back into red for another higher low bottom Q1 2023 on that indicator (lower low BTC price).
Comment:
Alessio Rastani agrees with me that too many people think a washout to $10k is imminent. Thus unlikely to happen now.
youtu.be/kQxIUL762co?t=1406
(Alessio Rastani On What's Next For Bitcoin, Altcoins, & Stocks - Fed, Recession, Goldman Sachs)
youtu.be/kQxIUL762co?t=1406
(Alessio Rastani On What's Next For Bitcoin, Altcoins, & Stocks - Fed, Recession, Goldman Sachs)
Comment:
Prior two posts about possibly imminent liquidations:
t.me/c/1225356242/33543
t.me/c/1225356242/33549
Another one:
youtu.be/Cf08LjmT0ok
(Bitcoin hovers at $20K, Fundstrat warns of washout, and Three Arrows to liquidate: CNBC Crypto World)
Points out that if $17.5k is breached to the downside, then $12.5k by mid-July is a possibility.
I want to again note the massive semi-annual bearish engulfing candle that just closed.
He also points out that DeFi entities have been stable. The CeFi (centralized finance entities, e.g. wrapped ETH) that are failing. So DeFi could come back stronger after this in the long-term.
t.me/c/1225356242/33543
t.me/c/1225356242/33549
Another one:
youtu.be/Cf08LjmT0ok
(Bitcoin hovers at $20K, Fundstrat warns of washout, and Three Arrows to liquidate: CNBC Crypto World)
Points out that if $17.5k is breached to the downside, then $12.5k by mid-July is a possibility.
I want to again note the massive semi-annual bearish engulfing candle that just closed.
He also points out that DeFi entities have been stable. The CeFi (centralized finance entities, e.g. wrapped ETH) that are failing. So DeFi could come back stronger after this in the long-term.
Comment:
Another very bearish video. $13.8k and $11k to the downside. No capitulation candle yet on the monthly (although didn’t have one in Dec 2018 either yet it was a very rounded bottoming process). With so many now expecting a washout, maybe a rally first even up to $28k is possible. Maybe tag the CME gap again (while CME is open) or $15 – 16.6k before a rally?
I have $13.1 – 13.8k range for that next lower low if the 300 WMA and 0.5 log-scale Fib are breached ($15 – $16.6k).
Strong support is really only $10 – 12k. Remember the price (not percentage) projection is $12k. Bitcoin Dominance projecting to 62%!
Dollar may breakout to the upside! S&P to downside!
youtu.be/fJOEz4EFcfc
(Shocking $13,880 Bitcoin Price Target In July Fact Or Fiction?)
I have $13.1 – 13.8k range for that next lower low if the 300 WMA and 0.5 log-scale Fib are breached ($15 – $16.6k).
Strong support is really only $10 – 12k. Remember the price (not percentage) projection is $12k. Bitcoin Dominance projecting to 62%!
Dollar may breakout to the upside! S&P to downside!
youtu.be/fJOEz4EFcfc
(Shocking $13,880 Bitcoin Price Target In July Fact Or Fiction?)
Comment:
Crypto Crew University points out that Bitcoin has probably bottomed but he also points out at the end that something ominous is coming to Bitcoin. This is a compilation of all his recent videos wrapped up into one:
youtu.be/ggXEPVVCp-w
(Warning: Everyone is WRONG About When Bitcoin Bottom - This Will Happen Instead)
I commented:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggXEPVVC...
@Crypto Crew University expecting a temporary bottom in July not lower than $15k. May come back down to retest bottom by September. Then a bounce to $47k by December (which happens to be below the log regression fit bottom which you point out will be the overhead resistance in December but that is not how I arrived at the $47k). Then a further crash below $14k probably below $12k in 2023 before the final bottom. Eric Krown Crypto’s Accumulation/Distribution will reach a bottom by September. Said indicator will blip into the green before the crash to a higher low on said indicator mirroring the corona dump. There is a repeating megaphone pattern on price from 2019–2020 which I identified publicly on my trading view (shelby3) in June 2021 that helps me predict this, as well as the terminal impulse Elliot Wave condition from the corona dump and correlating where we are in the bull market cycle. Note the ominous signs you have identified are because an ANYONE CAN SPEND attack is coming against Bitcoin next year which will destroy the 2017 NY agreement soft fork and restore the legacy protocol. I am an expert on this game theory. You will find that I was having public technical discussions (Bitcointalk forum) with Charles Hoskinson (founder of Cardanao) back in 2013.
youtu.be/ggXEPVVCp-w
(Warning: Everyone is WRONG About When Bitcoin Bottom - This Will Happen Instead)
I commented:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggXEPVVC...
@Crypto Crew University expecting a temporary bottom in July not lower than $15k. May come back down to retest bottom by September. Then a bounce to $47k by December (which happens to be below the log regression fit bottom which you point out will be the overhead resistance in December but that is not how I arrived at the $47k). Then a further crash below $14k probably below $12k in 2023 before the final bottom. Eric Krown Crypto’s Accumulation/Distribution will reach a bottom by September. Said indicator will blip into the green before the crash to a higher low on said indicator mirroring the corona dump. There is a repeating megaphone pattern on price from 2019–2020 which I identified publicly on my trading view (shelby3) in June 2021 that helps me predict this, as well as the terminal impulse Elliot Wave condition from the corona dump and correlating where we are in the bull market cycle. Note the ominous signs you have identified are because an ANYONE CAN SPEND attack is coming against Bitcoin next year which will destroy the 2017 NY agreement soft fork and restore the legacy protocol. I am an expert on this game theory. You will find that I was having public technical discussions (Bitcointalk forum) with Charles Hoskinson (founder of Cardanao) back in 2013.
Comment:
I think the bottom for July is probably $16.6 – $17.8k this weekend, mostly likely July 4. I believe we will finally have bullish RSI divergence on the daily for both spot and CME by market open on Tuesday, July 5. Already have it on the CME but the $18.1 – 18.4k CME gap didn’t fill yet, so if spot wick bottoms on July 4 then on the rebound if CME opens on evening of July 4 (Eastern Standard time zone) such that price is not too low so as to drag RSI too low on the CME but low enough to fill said gap. Timing works best this weekend probably although some might argue that earnings downgrades starting second week of July might bring out the pessimism for a bottom. Market tends to price things in ahead of news though. Maybe bottom is next weekend? Or maybe stock markets bottom days after Bitcoin does opposite of the case at the recent $17.6k low. Or S&P bottoms next week and BTC bottoms next weekend. In any case, I am not buying until CME fills its said gap (spot filled it already but that isn’t valid).
May get a slight bounce along the way this weekend. Will probably get a slightly lower low in September after decent (15 – 49%) bull trap bounce. After that rockets to $47+k by December. The lower, egregious lows to come after that perhaps late Q1 2023.
May get a slight bounce along the way this weekend. Will probably get a slightly lower low in September after decent (15 – 49%) bull trap bounce. After that rockets to $47+k by December. The lower, egregious lows to come after that perhaps late Q1 2023.
Comment:
E.K.C. confirms my point that CME is looking potentially bullish for next week, but that over the weekend is potentially bearish because the daily stochastic is turned down unless BTC can retake $20k today.
E.K.C. points out an inverted Cup&Handle projecting imminently down to $16.5k.
youtu.be/yoPqBNeubh0?t=282
(Bitcoin Beware The Weekend Trap For Price)
E.K.C. points out an inverted Cup&Handle projecting imminently down to $16.5k.
youtu.be/yoPqBNeubh0?t=282
(Bitcoin Beware The Weekend Trap For Price)
Comment:
Oddly if the posited megaphone pattern repeats then BTC expected to recover in 2023 and make egregious ATHs in 2025. Does the Fed restart QE or would this just be legacy BTC skyrocketing due to the ANYONECANSPEND consumed all the token supply and/or driving mining hashrate to the moon by radically increasing the block reward with all non-legacy BTC donated to the miners? Refer to my detailed technological explanation (archived) for why that is so.
So this new idea is a different major wave count that may make more sense, especially with so many in the news calling for $12 – 13k imminently then it’s likely not going to happen. And thus the bottom would be ~$16.7k now (300 WMA) and $15.5k in September, then the wave #4 and below $14k would delayed until the mega crash Q1 2023.
Maybe the CeFi default liquidations will be delayed, then they will sell BTC on the rise to $47k.
In this scenario some altcoins survive going forward into a new altcoin season in 2025 – 2026 comparable to 2021 – 2022.
The VIX will not spike to 49 until Q1 2023 in this interpretation of the future.
So this new idea is a different major wave count that may make more sense, especially with so many in the news calling for $12 – 13k imminently then it’s likely not going to happen. And thus the bottom would be ~$16.7k now (300 WMA) and $15.5k in September, then the wave #4 and below $14k would delayed until the mega crash Q1 2023.
Maybe the CeFi default liquidations will be delayed, then they will sell BTC on the rise to $47k.
In this scenario some altcoins survive going forward into a new altcoin season in 2025 – 2026 comparable to 2021 – 2022.
The VIX will not spike to 49 until Q1 2023 in this interpretation of the future.
Comment:
{In reply to Shelby Moore}
{ Album }
> “Note Bitcoin didn’t make new ATH on either rally during 2019 even though S&P did, presumably because no Fed QE until 2020.”
Correlating everything, the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart now makes more sense. Although altcoins might have more leverage for rally into end of year as compared to H1 2019 rally — presumably because this rally will be inside the posited megaphone — essentially this interpretation of the BTC.D chart is predicting that altcoins are losing their leverage and will settle in ~50% of the total crypto market cap. I posit that the major (and eventually to be highly regulated 666-like tracking) stable coins USDT, USDC, and BUSD will soon become ~33 – 40% of the total crypto market cap given they are already total to ~26% and presumably they will become more adopted and replace the non-major altcoins which are losing their raison d’etre and FOMO.
{ Album }
> “Note Bitcoin didn’t make new ATH on either rally during 2019 even though S&P did, presumably because no Fed QE until 2020.”
Correlating everything, the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart now makes more sense. Although altcoins might have more leverage for rally into end of year as compared to H1 2019 rally — presumably because this rally will be inside the posited megaphone — essentially this interpretation of the BTC.D chart is predicting that altcoins are losing their leverage and will settle in ~50% of the total crypto market cap. I posit that the major (and eventually to be highly regulated 666-like tracking) stable coins USDT, USDC, and BUSD will soon become ~33 – 40% of the total crypto market cap given they are already total to ~26% and presumably they will become more adopted and replace the non-major altcoins which are losing their raison d’etre and FOMO.
Comment:
Posited BTC to triple off ~$16k bottom, ETH and ADA 2.5 – 4 and 3 – 5 respectively. Altcoins also appear to have bottomed for now. The most leverage for altcoins will be off the egregious posited lows in Q1 2023, and again for posited BTC top in late 2025.
Note this interpretation of the future is interesting because it says to me that I have every motivation and plenty of time to create a unique altcoin.
The VIX will not spike to 49 until Q1 2023 in this interpretation of the future.
Note legacy BTC could hit $1+ million in 2025. In that case ETH maybe $100k in Q1 2026. (I posit the currently “official” Bitcoin Core will die and go to $0).
I'm not suggesting that this interpretation is surely correct. This seems plausible and ticks off all the invariants I've thought about so far.
It doesn't make sense that Bitcoin crashes to $13k now when everyone who was bullish all the way down suddenly have become fearful of an imminent washout.
Conversely it doesn't make sense that Bitcoin would rally from here to a new ATH given no Fed easing expected and a bearish engulfing biannual candle just closed. Yet note the bullish engulfing biannual candle in 2019 also had a bearish reversal biannual candle before continuing bullish. So a repeat would be a bullish bounce to December to then continue bearish as I have diagrammed for wave #4 in this latest interpretation.
That would fulfill the terminal impulse Elliot Wave invariant that major wave #4 (yellow boxed numbered) must drop below the $13.9k top of wave #1 — bcz wave #2 retraced more than 61.8% of wave #1.. And without requiring that egregious crash now. Makes sense to bull trap from here first before continuing wave #4 to the egregious low in Q1 2023.
Ron Walker is incorrect to think that wave #5 of a terminal impulse can't go higher than wave #3. He thinks if wave #4 retraced below top of wave #1 that the EW count is invalid but that's incorrect. I cited my reference for that many times on my Tradingview ideas.
Posited BTC to triple off ~$16k bottom, ETH and ADA 2.5 – 4 and 3 – 5 respectively. Altcoins also appear to have bottomed for now. The most leverage for altcoins will be off the egregious posited lows in Q1 2023, and again for posited BTC top in late 2025.
Note this interpretation of the future is interesting because it says to me that I have every motivation and plenty of time to create a unique altcoin.
The VIX will not spike to 49 until Q1 2023 in this interpretation of the future.
Note legacy BTC could hit $1+ million in 2025. In that case ETH maybe $100k in Q1 2026. (I posit the currently “official” Bitcoin Core will die and go to $0).
I'm not suggesting that this interpretation is surely correct. This seems plausible and ticks off all the invariants I've thought about so far.
It doesn't make sense that Bitcoin crashes to $13k now when everyone who was bullish all the way down suddenly have become fearful of an imminent washout.
Conversely it doesn't make sense that Bitcoin would rally from here to a new ATH given no Fed easing expected and a bearish engulfing biannual candle just closed. Yet note the bullish engulfing biannual candle in 2019 also had a bearish reversal biannual candle before continuing bullish. So a repeat would be a bullish bounce to December to then continue bearish as I have diagrammed for wave #4 in this latest interpretation.
That would fulfill the terminal impulse Elliot Wave invariant that major wave #4 (yellow boxed numbered) must drop below the $13.9k top of wave #1 — bcz wave #2 retraced more than 61.8% of wave #1.. And without requiring that egregious crash now. Makes sense to bull trap from here first before continuing wave #4 to the egregious low in Q1 2023.
Ron Walker is incorrect to think that wave #5 of a terminal impulse can't go higher than wave #3. He thinks if wave #4 retraced below top of wave #1 that the EW count is invalid but that's incorrect. I cited my reference for that many times on my Tradingview ideas.
Comment:
This math nut is posting some interesting analyses.
www.tradingview.com/...o-reach-new-ATH-545/
www.nzdl.org/cgi-bin/library?e=d-00000-...
www.tradingview.com/...o-reach-new-ATH-545/
www.nzdl.org/cgi-bin/library?e=d-00000-...
Comment:
Bwahaha:
Comment:
Time is running out for the bears. Bollinger bands are squeezing very tightly on Bitcoin, so any move down will be muted and the probable breakout to the upside may be imminent.
youtu.be/q_qATRIL_Ss?t=232
(BREAKOUT COMING!)
youtu.be/q_qATRIL_Ss?t=232
(BREAKOUT COMING!)
Comment:
Interesting:
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...bHGgChbg-It-is-Time/
@otwa2113, you might be correct, but consider the updates since July 4 to my published idea Bitcoin bottom to be or not to be?. I’m going to try to convince you that your $26k may be achieved but the $32 and/or $35k are likely to fail unless my model needs to be reinterpreted. $47k by Aug 24 seems impossible in my fractal megaphone model, unless I change the posited correspondences to the seemingly less congruent in which case your model fits as I have shown in said updates. Note my models and analyses definitely agree a significant bounce is likely imminent.
@otwa2113, you might be correct, but consider the updates since July 4 to my published idea Bitcoin bottom to be or not to be?. I’m going to try to convince you that your $26k may be achieved but the $32 and/or $35k are likely to fail unless my model needs to be reinterpreted. $47k by Aug 24 seems impossible in my fractal megaphone model, unless I change the posited correspondences to the seemingly less congruent in which case your model fits as I have shown in said updates. Note my models and analyses definitely agree a significant bounce is likely imminent.
Comment:
Further refinement to this published idea:
Comment:
Here’s one of the aforementioned updates since July 4 on my published idea Bitcoin bottom to be or not to be?:
> “but in no case can I find a chart structure that supports $47k by August 24 unless I radically increase the slope of the top of the posited megaphone or only change the posited fractal, which would alter the timing and fractal pattern correspondence to the posited prior megaphone occurrence”
Here are those two possible reinterpretations respectively but they both seem lack some facets of congruence as compared to my preferred interpretation. These would not doubt be shocking and not at all what the uber bearish greater fool mass market is expecting:
> “but in no case can I find a chart structure that supports $47k by August 24 unless I radically increase the slope of the top of the posited megaphone or only change the posited fractal, which would alter the timing and fractal pattern correspondence to the posited prior megaphone occurrence”
Here are those two possible reinterpretations respectively but they both seem lack some facets of congruence as compared to my preferred interpretation. These would not doubt be shocking and not at all what the uber bearish greater fool mass market is expecting:
Comment:
My detailed reply:
www.tradingview.com/...us-terminal-impulse/
@grepcat, July 4 updates on this published idea and my published idea Bitcoin bottom to be or not to be? in conjunction with those cited ideas published by math prodigy @otwa2113, corroborate that what’s going on with Bitcoin thus has implications for all risk-on market sectors.
Properly and fully grokking Bitcoin, its game theory, Nash equilibrium and economics — and especially why legacy protocol Bitcoin must rise to be the next world reserve currency and how it will rise by destroying the posited impostor Bitcoin Core (which is actually only an altcoin analogous and equivalent to Litecoin or any other proof-of-work piece-of-sh8t that integrated the scammer concept of Lightning Networks and SegWit) — is important to understanding all investment going forward.
The world is radically changing. I suggest you read all the updates on my published idea "Official" (impostor) Bitcoin Core to Drop to $0 in 2023? as I’m explaining in detail the unraveling of the world’s global financial and geo-political system (i.e. the post Bretton Woods order) and the monetary and political reset to a multi-polar world 666 enslaved by Bitcoin per the model in John Nash’s Ideal Money (Jstor) proposal. John Nash explained how an ideal unit-of-account would discipline and enslave the profligate nation-states. In my aforelinked published idea, I explain why human nature, civilization, and political power vacuums can never create a nation-state which is not dysfunctional. Do you really think that Rothschild’s 200 IQ secret team launched Bitcoin (pretending to unrealistically be some lone Japanese who created Bitcoin “in his mother’s basement”, lol…and I hope you read where I am explained that Satoshi Nakamoto = I am Nash) because it will remain decentralized forever? Of course as biblical Revelation predicts all the wealth will become concentrated on the seven hills surrounding Rome and/or Jerusalem and of course if the elitemost (Rothschild?) of the Davos elite (i.e. the old world money hiding behind the curtain of the underlings such as Gates and Soros, pulling the strings with compartmentalization and playing all sides off each other — essentially Satan in a human form) then of course the hidden elite will control more than 51% of the Bitcoin mining farms either directly or more likely indirectly (e.g. forcing KYC and PoSoFs via the NWO, globalist FATF rules which essentially 666 enslave everyone using Bitcoin).
@grepcat wrote:
“there are currently about 10-12 mil btc on segwit addresses”
Of course that slightly more than half of Bitcoin’s token supply is currently foolishly held in non-legacy addresses (i.e. those what begin with a 3 or bc1 instead of a 1, which are pay-to-script-hash and its variants such as SegWit specific address protocols) is going to fool the sheepeople herd of linear thinkers who favor a normalcy bias that weights continuation of trend greater than black swans (and they are usually correct, except when they are wrong they plunge to their demise over the black swan cliff). Some people mistakenly believe that black swans can’t be anticipated, but there is order in chaos if you know where to look and how to correlate it — which is what @otwa2113 is doing from an ostensibly purely mathematical chaos theory fixed point and bifurcation analyses, whereas I am incorporating my domain expertise about Bitcoin’s history, game theory, economics, technological details, Martin Armstrong’s cycle models, my markets analysis, etc.. I am sort of a polymath (almost) and incorporating information I find from many different sources of investigation.
Specifically to your question about how would the miners and Bitcoin’s reputation survive such a “donations attack” (where the legacy miners take al the non-legacy address BTC as donations on the legacy fork, leaving those foolishly held in non-legacy only with their Core fork BTC remaining and a huge income tax bill to pay for the free airdrop income at the nosebleed price before the “attack” drives those sh*tcoins to to ~$0, i.e. bankrupting everyone who was so foolish and ignored me.
To understand why I am unequivocally correct, you must read again more carefully the section “Official” Bitcoin to be Destroyed, Satoshi’s Legacy Bitcoin to Rise from the Ashes as Rothschild’s Phoenix (archived) of my (incomplete) Gist. Specifically read more carefully from point #4 to the end of the section and make sure you understand what is written. Do not gloss over (i.e. ignore) the significance of any words. Let me quote some essential excerpts which speak directly to your mischaracterization of the reality and the unassailable facts:
This economic asymmetry alone as it has been for every case of hard fork of Bitcoin, is enough to guarantee that the legacy fork is economically dominant. But it’s not the only reason…
www.tradingview.com/...us-terminal-impulse/
@grepcat, July 4 updates on this published idea and my published idea Bitcoin bottom to be or not to be? in conjunction with those cited ideas published by math prodigy @otwa2113, corroborate that what’s going on with Bitcoin thus has implications for all risk-on market sectors.
Properly and fully grokking Bitcoin, its game theory, Nash equilibrium and economics — and especially why legacy protocol Bitcoin must rise to be the next world reserve currency and how it will rise by destroying the posited impostor Bitcoin Core (which is actually only an altcoin analogous and equivalent to Litecoin or any other proof-of-work piece-of-sh8t that integrated the scammer concept of Lightning Networks and SegWit) — is important to understanding all investment going forward.
The world is radically changing. I suggest you read all the updates on my published idea "Official" (impostor) Bitcoin Core to Drop to $0 in 2023? as I’m explaining in detail the unraveling of the world’s global financial and geo-political system (i.e. the post Bretton Woods order) and the monetary and political reset to a multi-polar world 666 enslaved by Bitcoin per the model in John Nash’s Ideal Money (Jstor) proposal. John Nash explained how an ideal unit-of-account would discipline and enslave the profligate nation-states. In my aforelinked published idea, I explain why human nature, civilization, and political power vacuums can never create a nation-state which is not dysfunctional. Do you really think that Rothschild’s 200 IQ secret team launched Bitcoin (pretending to unrealistically be some lone Japanese who created Bitcoin “in his mother’s basement”, lol…and I hope you read where I am explained that Satoshi Nakamoto = I am Nash) because it will remain decentralized forever? Of course as biblical Revelation predicts all the wealth will become concentrated on the seven hills surrounding Rome and/or Jerusalem and of course if the elitemost (Rothschild?) of the Davos elite (i.e. the old world money hiding behind the curtain of the underlings such as Gates and Soros, pulling the strings with compartmentalization and playing all sides off each other — essentially Satan in a human form) then of course the hidden elite will control more than 51% of the Bitcoin mining farms either directly or more likely indirectly (e.g. forcing KYC and PoSoFs via the NWO, globalist FATF rules which essentially 666 enslave everyone using Bitcoin).
@grepcat wrote:
“there are currently about 10-12 mil btc on segwit addresses”
Of course that slightly more than half of Bitcoin’s token supply is currently foolishly held in non-legacy addresses (i.e. those what begin with a 3 or bc1 instead of a 1, which are pay-to-script-hash and its variants such as SegWit specific address protocols) is going to fool the sheepeople herd of linear thinkers who favor a normalcy bias that weights continuation of trend greater than black swans (and they are usually correct, except when they are wrong they plunge to their demise over the black swan cliff). Some people mistakenly believe that black swans can’t be anticipated, but there is order in chaos if you know where to look and how to correlate it — which is what @otwa2113 is doing from an ostensibly purely mathematical chaos theory fixed point and bifurcation analyses, whereas I am incorporating my domain expertise about Bitcoin’s history, game theory, economics, technological details, Martin Armstrong’s cycle models, my markets analysis, etc.. I am sort of a polymath (almost) and incorporating information I find from many different sources of investigation.
Specifically to your question about how would the miners and Bitcoin’s reputation survive such a “donations attack” (where the legacy miners take al the non-legacy address BTC as donations on the legacy fork, leaving those foolishly held in non-legacy only with their Core fork BTC remaining and a huge income tax bill to pay for the free airdrop income at the nosebleed price before the “attack” drives those sh*tcoins to to ~$0, i.e. bankrupting everyone who was so foolish and ignored me.
To understand why I am unequivocally correct, you must read again more carefully the section “Official” Bitcoin to be Destroyed, Satoshi’s Legacy Bitcoin to Rise from the Ashes as Rothschild’s Phoenix (archived) of my (incomplete) Gist. Specifically read more carefully from point #4 to the end of the section and make sure you understand what is written. Do not gloss over (i.e. ignore) the significance of any words. Let me quote some essential excerpts which speak directly to your mischaracterization of the reality and the unassailable facts:
This economic asymmetry alone as it has been for every case of hard fork of Bitcoin, is enough to guarantee that the legacy fork is economically dominant. But it’s not the only reason…
Comment:
And:
Miners don’t decide and will be forced by the economic majority to mine the legacy fork because presumably the “attack” will occur at a nosebleed high price with the network hashrate mining difficulty pumped sky high, and to coincide with suddenly dumping million+ ₿ of the free airdropped Core (aka SegWit) sh8tcoins on the exchanges thus cratering the price of the soi-disant “official” Bitcoin fork (which everyone erroneously believes is Bitcoin). The price will be so low compared to the mining difficulty, that miners won’t even recoup a negligible fraction of their electricity costs. The Core sh8tcoin will halt because no blocks will be mined. And the mining difficulty can not be adjusted lower until 2016 blocks are mined — yet since no blocks will be mined because not profitable, then non-legacy (aka Core) protocol blockchain will be stuck and halt. Which of course will cause massive panic selling on the centralized exchanges, which will probably cause exchanges to also halt, lol. Blockstream’s “power rangers” will be forced to ”maintain” their sh8t staining fetish by manually hard forking (i.e. hard f*cking in the butthole and polishing the circlejerk turd of) their mining difficulty, thus rendering their Core sh8tcoin a centralized, sh8t stained security. And then the repeated ‘difficulty bomb‘ attacks will ensue until that sh8tstainedcorn is notionally “valued” ~$0. Let’s suppose human waste has some infinitesimal value to microbes and the antediluvian agricultural economy.
And:
Whereas at the time of the restoration “attack” the legacy Bitcoin blockchain will not have a high mining difficulty relative to its value, and there will be ANYONECANSPEND booty available in each block mined thus increasing the mining reward. Thus miners will only have the choice to either sell their ASICs or mine on the legacy Bitcoin chain forsaking the sh8t stained protocol fork forevermore.
And:
Yet even after this ELI5, the {redacted} stones in between @exstasie’s ears still won’t fathom why the legacy ₿ tokens would have any value, because he ostensibly incorrectly concludes that monetary value is a USAF consensus (aka democrazy) and not embedded in the Nash equilibrium monetary restandardization that organizes/promotes/fosters maximum capital formation via the constant marginal utility of an Ideal Money. Which is an unrelated process to onboarding poverty stricken plebs (c.f. also) in Web 3.0 with transaction scaling.
Note I refrained here on Tradingview from linking to trilema dot com in those quotes because Mircea’s website is banned on most social media (even though Mircea held ~500,000 BTC when he allegedly drowned in Costa Rica...and if you believe he drowned I have bridge to nowhere I would like to sell you). So refer to the original for the relevant links which are embedded in the afore-cited text at my Gist.
@grepcat opined:
“i doubt miners will take/steal these without any major consequences. why would the community continue believing in bitcoin legacy (and the miners) after miner attack execution?”
@exstasie and nearly everyone who reads the explanation can’t seem to comprehend that the millions of worthless plebs and their FOMO Tulip bubble has already served its intended purpose and they are no longer relevant. Humans don’t comprehend the exponential function (example of the Lily pad only covering half of the pond on the 29th week and farmer is shocked fully covered by the 30th week) and they don’t comprehend the inviolable power-law distribution of fungible resources such as wealth and tokens — thus ultimately the 99% do not matter and depend entirely on the 1% who decide how to manage and harvest their 99% livestock herd. Satoshi intentionally designed Bitcoin to not be a transactional currency for the masses (when he intentionally set the block size to 1 MB and used the Wikileaks excuse to leave when he was being pressured to raise it and I already refuted the hearsay that it was only Hal Finney’s who want to cap the block size) — he rather designed Bitcoin to be an international settlement system for central banks and $trillionaires (possibly also $billionaires) as the transaction fees will become too high (e.g. $50,000) for the plebs to transact on chain (and Lightning Networks will be destroyed when Core it). Note Wikileaks was controlled by Rothschild and Assange even stayed at the house of Rothschild’s attorney in the UK who was helping him with his legal battles before he escaped to the Ecuadorian embassy.
Yet those extraneous details are not even required to make my N.B.A. slamdunk point. The fact is that invariably economics (and nature’s cycles as order in chaos, e.g. the Strange Attractor) drives outcomes. And the economics is such that only Bitcoin can be the future world reserve currency. You can observe that whomever is pulling the strings behind the curtain to create WW3 is creating a multi-polar world where globalism fails and no nation-state can trust and use another’s currency (not even the IMF or World Bank will be trusted by the BRICs Russia+China et al economic bloc that is forming and who would trust the Yuan or Ruble in the West?) as the global unit-of-account and reserve asset for international trade — thus making Bitcoin the de facto alternative. And that a Bitcoin based on a mutated protocol that has create a 12 million BTC booty is never stable (no Nash equilibrium) and thus can’t be a reserve currency until that booty is removed. Also very important realize that the model that best predicts the price of Bitcoin (after Plan B’s model failed) is cost of mining. Well when the miners take the booty, their profit skyrockets so thus the hashrate can be driven to the moon, thus the cost of mining driven to the moon, thus the price of legacy Bitcoin driven to the moon very quickly after the attack. The so called “attack” (and it is not an attack, but rather a restoration and removal of the 2017 NY agreement attack on the Nash equilibrium) actually will slingshot the price of legacy Bitcoin to the moon, precisely the opposite of the layman’s intuition, because layman do not understand anything and are ignorant fools who are slaughtered because they are ignorant.
I hope you are paying attention now!
Remove those {redacted} stones from between your ears so you can be one of those who becomes insanely wealthy instead of impoverished and enslaved by the 666 plan ahead. Start to understand reality as it is, not the snowflake nonsense that was presumably indoctrinated into your (and all of our) mind(s) since birth. Cross the chasm with me, don’t be left behind with the linear thinkers herd who are incapable of (too lazy/preoccupied by the N.B.A. to do) research and critical reasoning.
Miners don’t decide and will be forced by the economic majority to mine the legacy fork because presumably the “attack” will occur at a nosebleed high price with the network hashrate mining difficulty pumped sky high, and to coincide with suddenly dumping million+ ₿ of the free airdropped Core (aka SegWit) sh8tcoins on the exchanges thus cratering the price of the soi-disant “official” Bitcoin fork (which everyone erroneously believes is Bitcoin). The price will be so low compared to the mining difficulty, that miners won’t even recoup a negligible fraction of their electricity costs. The Core sh8tcoin will halt because no blocks will be mined. And the mining difficulty can not be adjusted lower until 2016 blocks are mined — yet since no blocks will be mined because not profitable, then non-legacy (aka Core) protocol blockchain will be stuck and halt. Which of course will cause massive panic selling on the centralized exchanges, which will probably cause exchanges to also halt, lol. Blockstream’s “power rangers” will be forced to ”maintain” their sh8t staining fetish by manually hard forking (i.e. hard f*cking in the butthole and polishing the circlejerk turd of) their mining difficulty, thus rendering their Core sh8tcoin a centralized, sh8t stained security. And then the repeated ‘difficulty bomb‘ attacks will ensue until that sh8tstainedcorn is notionally “valued” ~$0. Let’s suppose human waste has some infinitesimal value to microbes and the antediluvian agricultural economy.
And:
Whereas at the time of the restoration “attack” the legacy Bitcoin blockchain will not have a high mining difficulty relative to its value, and there will be ANYONECANSPEND booty available in each block mined thus increasing the mining reward. Thus miners will only have the choice to either sell their ASICs or mine on the legacy Bitcoin chain forsaking the sh8t stained protocol fork forevermore.
And:
Yet even after this ELI5, the {redacted} stones in between @exstasie’s ears still won’t fathom why the legacy ₿ tokens would have any value, because he ostensibly incorrectly concludes that monetary value is a USAF consensus (aka democrazy) and not embedded in the Nash equilibrium monetary restandardization that organizes/promotes/fosters maximum capital formation via the constant marginal utility of an Ideal Money. Which is an unrelated process to onboarding poverty stricken plebs (c.f. also) in Web 3.0 with transaction scaling.
Note I refrained here on Tradingview from linking to trilema dot com in those quotes because Mircea’s website is banned on most social media (even though Mircea held ~500,000 BTC when he allegedly drowned in Costa Rica...and if you believe he drowned I have bridge to nowhere I would like to sell you). So refer to the original for the relevant links which are embedded in the afore-cited text at my Gist.
@grepcat opined:
“i doubt miners will take/steal these without any major consequences. why would the community continue believing in bitcoin legacy (and the miners) after miner attack execution?”
@exstasie and nearly everyone who reads the explanation can’t seem to comprehend that the millions of worthless plebs and their FOMO Tulip bubble has already served its intended purpose and they are no longer relevant. Humans don’t comprehend the exponential function (example of the Lily pad only covering half of the pond on the 29th week and farmer is shocked fully covered by the 30th week) and they don’t comprehend the inviolable power-law distribution of fungible resources such as wealth and tokens — thus ultimately the 99% do not matter and depend entirely on the 1% who decide how to manage and harvest their 99% livestock herd. Satoshi intentionally designed Bitcoin to not be a transactional currency for the masses (when he intentionally set the block size to 1 MB and used the Wikileaks excuse to leave when he was being pressured to raise it and I already refuted the hearsay that it was only Hal Finney’s who want to cap the block size) — he rather designed Bitcoin to be an international settlement system for central banks and $trillionaires (possibly also $billionaires) as the transaction fees will become too high (e.g. $50,000) for the plebs to transact on chain (and Lightning Networks will be destroyed when Core it). Note Wikileaks was controlled by Rothschild and Assange even stayed at the house of Rothschild’s attorney in the UK who was helping him with his legal battles before he escaped to the Ecuadorian embassy.
Yet those extraneous details are not even required to make my N.B.A. slamdunk point. The fact is that invariably economics (and nature’s cycles as order in chaos, e.g. the Strange Attractor) drives outcomes. And the economics is such that only Bitcoin can be the future world reserve currency. You can observe that whomever is pulling the strings behind the curtain to create WW3 is creating a multi-polar world where globalism fails and no nation-state can trust and use another’s currency (not even the IMF or World Bank will be trusted by the BRICs Russia+China et al economic bloc that is forming and who would trust the Yuan or Ruble in the West?) as the global unit-of-account and reserve asset for international trade — thus making Bitcoin the de facto alternative. And that a Bitcoin based on a mutated protocol that has create a 12 million BTC booty is never stable (no Nash equilibrium) and thus can’t be a reserve currency until that booty is removed. Also very important realize that the model that best predicts the price of Bitcoin (after Plan B’s model failed) is cost of mining. Well when the miners take the booty, their profit skyrockets so thus the hashrate can be driven to the moon, thus the cost of mining driven to the moon, thus the price of legacy Bitcoin driven to the moon very quickly after the attack. The so called “attack” (and it is not an attack, but rather a restoration and removal of the 2017 NY agreement attack on the Nash equilibrium) actually will slingshot the price of legacy Bitcoin to the moon, precisely the opposite of the layman’s intuition, because layman do not understand anything and are ignorant fools who are slaughtered because they are ignorant.
I hope you are paying attention now!
Remove those {redacted} stones from between your ears so you can be one of those who becomes insanely wealthy instead of impoverished and enslaved by the 666 plan ahead. Start to understand reality as it is, not the snowflake nonsense that was presumably indoctrinated into your (and all of our) mind(s) since birth. Cross the chasm with me, don’t be left behind with the linear thinkers herd who are incapable of (too lazy/preoccupied by the N.B.A. to do) research and critical reasoning.
Comment:
N.B.A. = {redacted} Baboon Arseraping = National Ballsack Asswipes = National Basketball Association.
P.S. Note I am not a racist, and I am even in a relationship with a person of skin color. Each individual’s intellect and astuteness is judged individually.
P.S. Note I am not a racist, and I am even in a relationship with a person of skin color. Each individual’s intellect and astuteness is judged individually.
Comment:
Repeated again but with typos corrected...
My detailed reply:
www.tradingview.com/...us-terminal-impulse/
@grepcat, July 4 updates on this published idea and my published idea Bitcoin bottom to be or not to be? in conjunction with those cited ideas published by math prodigy @otwa2113, corroborate that what’s going on with Bitcoin thus has implications for all risk-on market sectors.
Properly and fully grokking Bitcoin, its game theory, Nash equilibrium and economics — and especially why legacy protocol Bitcoin must rise to be the next world reserve currency and how it will rise by destroying the posited impostor Bitcoin Core (which is actually only an altcoin analogous and equivalent to Litecoin or any other proof-of-work piece-of-sh8t that integrated the scammer concept of Lightning Networks and SegWit) — is important to understanding all investment going forward.
The world is radically changing. I suggest you read all the updates on my published idea "Official" (impostor) Bitcoin Core to Drop to $0 in 2023? as I’m explaining in detail the unraveling of the world’s global financial and geo-political system (i.e. the post Bretton Woods order) and the monetary and political reset to a multi-polar world 666 enslaved by Bitcoin per the model in John Nash’s Ideal Money (Jstor) proposal. John Nash explained how an ideal unit-of-account would discipline and enslave the profligate nation-states. In my aforelinked published idea, I explain why human nature, civilization, and political power vacuums can never create a nation-state which is not dysfunctional. Do you really think that Rothschild’s 200 IQ secret team launched Bitcoin (pretending to unrealistically be some lone Japanese who created Bitcoin “in his mother’s basement”, lol…and I hope you read where I am explained that Satoshi Nakamoto = I am Nash) because it will remain decentralized forever? Of course as biblical Revelation predicts all the wealth will become concentrated on the seven hills surrounding Rome and/or Jerusalem and of course if the elitemost (Rothschild?) of the Davos elite (i.e. the old world money hiding behind the curtain of the underlings such as Gates and Soros, pulling the strings with compartmentalization and playing all sides off each other — essentially Satan in a human form) then of course the hidden elite will control more than 51% of the Bitcoin mining farms either directly or more likely indirectly (e.g. forcing KYC and PoSoFs via the NWO, globalist FATF rules which essentially 666 enslave everyone using Bitcoin).
@grepcat wrote:
“there are currently about 10-12 mil btc on segwit addresses”
Of course that slightly more than half of Bitcoin’s token supply is currently foolishly held in non-legacy addresses (i.e. those what begin with a 3 or bc1 instead of a 1, which are pay-to-script-hash and its variants such as SegWit specific address protocols) is going to fool the sheepeople herd of linear thinkers who favor a normalcy bias that weights continuation of trend greater than black swans (and they are usually correct, except when they are wrong they plunge to their demise over the black swan cliff). Some people mistakenly believe that black swans can’t be anticipated, but there is order in chaos if you know where to look and how to correlate it — which is what @otwa2113 is doing from an ostensibly purely mathematical chaos theory fixed point and bifurcation analyses, whereas I am incorporating my domain expertise about Bitcoin’s history, game theory, economics, technological details, Martin Armstrong’s cycle models, my markets analysis, etc.. I am sort of a polymath (almost) and incorporating information I find from many different sources of investigation.
Specifically to your question about how would the miners and Bitcoin’s reputation survive such a “donations attack” (where the legacy miners take all the non-legacy address BTC as donations on the legacy fork, leaving those foolishly held in non-legacy only with their Core fork BTC remaining and a huge income tax bill to pay for the free airdrop income at the nosebleed price before the “attack” drives those sh*tcoins to ~$0, i.e. bankrupting everyone who was so foolish and ignored me.
To understand why I am unequivocally correct, you must read again more carefully the section “Official” Bitcoin to be Destroyed, Satoshi’s Legacy Bitcoin to Rise from the Ashes as Rothschild’s Phoenix (archived) of my (incomplete) Gist. Specifically read more carefully from point #4 to the end of the section and make sure you understand what is written. Do not gloss over (i.e. ignore) the significance of any words. Let me quote some essential excerpts which speak directly to your mischaracterization of the reality and the unassailable facts:
This economic asymmetry alone as it has been for every case of hard fork of Bitcoin, is enough to guarantee that the legacy fork is economically dominant. But it’s not the only reason…
My detailed reply:
www.tradingview.com/...us-terminal-impulse/
@grepcat, July 4 updates on this published idea and my published idea Bitcoin bottom to be or not to be? in conjunction with those cited ideas published by math prodigy @otwa2113, corroborate that what’s going on with Bitcoin thus has implications for all risk-on market sectors.
Properly and fully grokking Bitcoin, its game theory, Nash equilibrium and economics — and especially why legacy protocol Bitcoin must rise to be the next world reserve currency and how it will rise by destroying the posited impostor Bitcoin Core (which is actually only an altcoin analogous and equivalent to Litecoin or any other proof-of-work piece-of-sh8t that integrated the scammer concept of Lightning Networks and SegWit) — is important to understanding all investment going forward.
The world is radically changing. I suggest you read all the updates on my published idea "Official" (impostor) Bitcoin Core to Drop to $0 in 2023? as I’m explaining in detail the unraveling of the world’s global financial and geo-political system (i.e. the post Bretton Woods order) and the monetary and political reset to a multi-polar world 666 enslaved by Bitcoin per the model in John Nash’s Ideal Money (Jstor) proposal. John Nash explained how an ideal unit-of-account would discipline and enslave the profligate nation-states. In my aforelinked published idea, I explain why human nature, civilization, and political power vacuums can never create a nation-state which is not dysfunctional. Do you really think that Rothschild’s 200 IQ secret team launched Bitcoin (pretending to unrealistically be some lone Japanese who created Bitcoin “in his mother’s basement”, lol…and I hope you read where I am explained that Satoshi Nakamoto = I am Nash) because it will remain decentralized forever? Of course as biblical Revelation predicts all the wealth will become concentrated on the seven hills surrounding Rome and/or Jerusalem and of course if the elitemost (Rothschild?) of the Davos elite (i.e. the old world money hiding behind the curtain of the underlings such as Gates and Soros, pulling the strings with compartmentalization and playing all sides off each other — essentially Satan in a human form) then of course the hidden elite will control more than 51% of the Bitcoin mining farms either directly or more likely indirectly (e.g. forcing KYC and PoSoFs via the NWO, globalist FATF rules which essentially 666 enslave everyone using Bitcoin).
@grepcat wrote:
“there are currently about 10-12 mil btc on segwit addresses”
Of course that slightly more than half of Bitcoin’s token supply is currently foolishly held in non-legacy addresses (i.e. those what begin with a 3 or bc1 instead of a 1, which are pay-to-script-hash and its variants such as SegWit specific address protocols) is going to fool the sheepeople herd of linear thinkers who favor a normalcy bias that weights continuation of trend greater than black swans (and they are usually correct, except when they are wrong they plunge to their demise over the black swan cliff). Some people mistakenly believe that black swans can’t be anticipated, but there is order in chaos if you know where to look and how to correlate it — which is what @otwa2113 is doing from an ostensibly purely mathematical chaos theory fixed point and bifurcation analyses, whereas I am incorporating my domain expertise about Bitcoin’s history, game theory, economics, technological details, Martin Armstrong’s cycle models, my markets analysis, etc.. I am sort of a polymath (almost) and incorporating information I find from many different sources of investigation.
Specifically to your question about how would the miners and Bitcoin’s reputation survive such a “donations attack” (where the legacy miners take all the non-legacy address BTC as donations on the legacy fork, leaving those foolishly held in non-legacy only with their Core fork BTC remaining and a huge income tax bill to pay for the free airdrop income at the nosebleed price before the “attack” drives those sh*tcoins to ~$0, i.e. bankrupting everyone who was so foolish and ignored me.
To understand why I am unequivocally correct, you must read again more carefully the section “Official” Bitcoin to be Destroyed, Satoshi’s Legacy Bitcoin to Rise from the Ashes as Rothschild’s Phoenix (archived) of my (incomplete) Gist. Specifically read more carefully from point #4 to the end of the section and make sure you understand what is written. Do not gloss over (i.e. ignore) the significance of any words. Let me quote some essential excerpts which speak directly to your mischaracterization of the reality and the unassailable facts:
This economic asymmetry alone as it has been for every case of hard fork of Bitcoin, is enough to guarantee that the legacy fork is economically dominant. But it’s not the only reason…
Comment:
And:
Miners don’t decide and will be forced by the economic majority to mine the legacy fork because presumably the “attack” will occur at a nosebleed high price with the network hashrate mining difficulty pumped sky high, and to coincide with suddenly dumping million+ ₿ of the free airdropped Core (aka SegWit) sh8tcoins on the exchanges thus cratering the price of the soi-disant “official” Bitcoin fork (which everyone erroneously believes is Bitcoin). The price will be so low compared to the mining difficulty, that miners won’t even recoup a negligible fraction of their electricity costs. The Core sh8tcoin will halt because no blocks will be mined. And the mining difficulty can not be adjusted lower until 2016 blocks are mined — yet since no blocks will be mined because not profitable, then non-legacy (aka Core) protocol blockchain will be stuck and halt. Which of course will cause massive panic selling on the centralized exchanges, which will probably cause exchanges to also halt, lol. Blockstream’s “power rangers” will be forced to ”maintain” their sh8t staining fetish by manually hard forking (i.e. hard f*cking in the butthole and polishing the circlejerk turd of) their mining difficulty, thus rendering their Core sh8tcoin a centralized, sh8t stained security. And then the repeated ‘difficulty bomb‘ attacks will ensue until that sh8tstainedcorn is notionally “valued” ~$0. Let’s suppose human waste has some infinitesimal value to microbes and the antediluvian agricultural economy.
And:
Whereas at the time of the restoration “attack” the legacy Bitcoin blockchain will not have a high mining difficulty relative to its value, and there will be ANYONECANSPEND booty available in each block mined thus increasing the mining reward. Thus miners will only have the choice to either sell their ASICs or mine on the legacy Bitcoin chain forsaking the sh8t stained protocol fork forevermore.
And:
Yet even after this ELI5, the {redacted} stones in between @exstasie’s ears still won’t fathom why the legacy ₿ tokens would have any value, because he ostensibly incorrectly concludes that monetary value is a USAF consensus (aka democrazy) and not embedded in the Nash equilibrium monetary restandardization that organizes/promotes/fosters maximum capital formation via the constant marginal utility of an Ideal Money. Which is an unrelated process to onboarding poverty stricken plebs (c.f. also) in Web 3.0 with transaction scaling.
Note I refrained here on Tradingview from linking to trilema dot com in those quotes because Mircea’s website is banned on most social media (even though Mircea held ~500,000 BTC when he allegedly drowned in Costa Rica...and if you believe he drowned I have bridge to nowhere I would like to sell you). So refer to the original for the relevant links which are embedded in the afore-cited text at my Gist.
@grepcat opined:
“i doubt miners will take/steal these without any major consequences. why would the community continue believing in bitcoin legacy (and the miners) after miner attack execution?”
@exstasie and nearly everyone who reads the explanation can’t seem to comprehend that the millions of worthless plebs and their FOMO Tulip bubble has already served its intended purpose and they are no longer relevant. Humans don’t comprehend the exponential function (example of the Lily pad only covering half of the pond on the 29th week and farmer is shocked fully covered by the 30th week) and they don’t comprehend the inviolable power-law distribution of fungible resources such as wealth and tokens — thus ultimately the 99% do not matter and depend entirely on the 1% who decide how to manage and harvest their 99% livestock herd. Satoshi intentionally designed Bitcoin to not be a transactional currency for the masses (when he intentionally set the block size to 1 MB and used the Wikileaks excuse to leave when he was being pressured to raise it and I already refuted the hearsay that it was only Hal Finney’s who wanted to cap the block size) — he rather designed Bitcoin to be an international settlement system for central banks and $trillionaires (possibly also $billionaires) as the transaction fees will become too high (e.g. $50,000) for the plebs to transact on chain (and Lightning Networks will be destroyed when Core is as posited herein). Note Wikileaks was controlled by Rothschild and Assange even stayed at the house of Rothschild’s attorney in the UK who was helping him with his legal battles before he escaped to the Ecuadorian embassy.
Yet those extraneous details are not even required to make my N.B.A. slamdunk point. The fact is that invariably economics (and nature’s cycles as order in chaos, e.g. the Strange Attractor) drives outcomes. And the economics is such that only Bitcoin can be the future world reserve currency. You can observe that whomever is pulling the strings behind the curtain to create WW3 is creating a multi-polar world where globalism fails and no nation-state can trust and use another’s currency (not even the IMF or World Bank will be trusted by the BRICs Russia+China et al economic bloc that is forming and who would trust the Yuan or Ruble in the West?) as the global unit-of-account and reserve asset for international trade — thus making Bitcoin the de facto alternative. And that a Bitcoin based on a mutated protocol that has created a 12 million BTC booty is never stable (no Nash equilibrium) and thus can’t be a reserve currency until that booty is removed. Also very important realize that the model that best predicts the price of Bitcoin (after Plan B’s model failed) is cost of mining. Well when the miners take the booty, their profit skyrockets so thus the hashrate can be driven to the moon, thus the cost of mining driven to the moon, thus the price of legacy Bitcoin driven to the moon very quickly after the attack. The so called “attack” (and it is not an attack, but rather a restoration and removal of the 2017 NY agreement attack on the Nash equilibrium) actually will slingshot the price of legacy Bitcoin to the moon, precisely the opposite of the layman’s intuition, because layman do not understand anything and are ignorant, sheepeople fools who are led as pigs to the slaughter house by their blissful ignorance are ignorant.
I hope you are paying attention now!
Remove those {redacted} stones from between your ears so you can be one of those who becomes insanely wealthy instead of impoverished and enslaved by the 666 plan ahead. Start to understand reality as it is, not the snowflake nonsense that was presumably indoctrinated into your (and all of our) mind(s) since birth. Cross the chasm with me, don’t be left behind with the linear thinkers herd who are incapable of (too lazy/preoccupied by the N.B.A. to do) research and critical reasoning.
Miners don’t decide and will be forced by the economic majority to mine the legacy fork because presumably the “attack” will occur at a nosebleed high price with the network hashrate mining difficulty pumped sky high, and to coincide with suddenly dumping million+ ₿ of the free airdropped Core (aka SegWit) sh8tcoins on the exchanges thus cratering the price of the soi-disant “official” Bitcoin fork (which everyone erroneously believes is Bitcoin). The price will be so low compared to the mining difficulty, that miners won’t even recoup a negligible fraction of their electricity costs. The Core sh8tcoin will halt because no blocks will be mined. And the mining difficulty can not be adjusted lower until 2016 blocks are mined — yet since no blocks will be mined because not profitable, then non-legacy (aka Core) protocol blockchain will be stuck and halt. Which of course will cause massive panic selling on the centralized exchanges, which will probably cause exchanges to also halt, lol. Blockstream’s “power rangers” will be forced to ”maintain” their sh8t staining fetish by manually hard forking (i.e. hard f*cking in the butthole and polishing the circlejerk turd of) their mining difficulty, thus rendering their Core sh8tcoin a centralized, sh8t stained security. And then the repeated ‘difficulty bomb‘ attacks will ensue until that sh8tstainedcorn is notionally “valued” ~$0. Let’s suppose human waste has some infinitesimal value to microbes and the antediluvian agricultural economy.
And:
Whereas at the time of the restoration “attack” the legacy Bitcoin blockchain will not have a high mining difficulty relative to its value, and there will be ANYONECANSPEND booty available in each block mined thus increasing the mining reward. Thus miners will only have the choice to either sell their ASICs or mine on the legacy Bitcoin chain forsaking the sh8t stained protocol fork forevermore.
And:
Yet even after this ELI5, the {redacted} stones in between @exstasie’s ears still won’t fathom why the legacy ₿ tokens would have any value, because he ostensibly incorrectly concludes that monetary value is a USAF consensus (aka democrazy) and not embedded in the Nash equilibrium monetary restandardization that organizes/promotes/fosters maximum capital formation via the constant marginal utility of an Ideal Money. Which is an unrelated process to onboarding poverty stricken plebs (c.f. also) in Web 3.0 with transaction scaling.
Note I refrained here on Tradingview from linking to trilema dot com in those quotes because Mircea’s website is banned on most social media (even though Mircea held ~500,000 BTC when he allegedly drowned in Costa Rica...and if you believe he drowned I have bridge to nowhere I would like to sell you). So refer to the original for the relevant links which are embedded in the afore-cited text at my Gist.
@grepcat opined:
“i doubt miners will take/steal these without any major consequences. why would the community continue believing in bitcoin legacy (and the miners) after miner attack execution?”
@exstasie and nearly everyone who reads the explanation can’t seem to comprehend that the millions of worthless plebs and their FOMO Tulip bubble has already served its intended purpose and they are no longer relevant. Humans don’t comprehend the exponential function (example of the Lily pad only covering half of the pond on the 29th week and farmer is shocked fully covered by the 30th week) and they don’t comprehend the inviolable power-law distribution of fungible resources such as wealth and tokens — thus ultimately the 99% do not matter and depend entirely on the 1% who decide how to manage and harvest their 99% livestock herd. Satoshi intentionally designed Bitcoin to not be a transactional currency for the masses (when he intentionally set the block size to 1 MB and used the Wikileaks excuse to leave when he was being pressured to raise it and I already refuted the hearsay that it was only Hal Finney’s who wanted to cap the block size) — he rather designed Bitcoin to be an international settlement system for central banks and $trillionaires (possibly also $billionaires) as the transaction fees will become too high (e.g. $50,000) for the plebs to transact on chain (and Lightning Networks will be destroyed when Core is as posited herein). Note Wikileaks was controlled by Rothschild and Assange even stayed at the house of Rothschild’s attorney in the UK who was helping him with his legal battles before he escaped to the Ecuadorian embassy.
Yet those extraneous details are not even required to make my N.B.A. slamdunk point. The fact is that invariably economics (and nature’s cycles as order in chaos, e.g. the Strange Attractor) drives outcomes. And the economics is such that only Bitcoin can be the future world reserve currency. You can observe that whomever is pulling the strings behind the curtain to create WW3 is creating a multi-polar world where globalism fails and no nation-state can trust and use another’s currency (not even the IMF or World Bank will be trusted by the BRICs Russia+China et al economic bloc that is forming and who would trust the Yuan or Ruble in the West?) as the global unit-of-account and reserve asset for international trade — thus making Bitcoin the de facto alternative. And that a Bitcoin based on a mutated protocol that has created a 12 million BTC booty is never stable (no Nash equilibrium) and thus can’t be a reserve currency until that booty is removed. Also very important realize that the model that best predicts the price of Bitcoin (after Plan B’s model failed) is cost of mining. Well when the miners take the booty, their profit skyrockets so thus the hashrate can be driven to the moon, thus the cost of mining driven to the moon, thus the price of legacy Bitcoin driven to the moon very quickly after the attack. The so called “attack” (and it is not an attack, but rather a restoration and removal of the 2017 NY agreement attack on the Nash equilibrium) actually will slingshot the price of legacy Bitcoin to the moon, precisely the opposite of the layman’s intuition, because layman do not understand anything and are ignorant, sheepeople fools who are led as pigs to the slaughter house by their blissful ignorance are ignorant.
I hope you are paying attention now!
Remove those {redacted} stones from between your ears so you can be one of those who becomes insanely wealthy instead of impoverished and enslaved by the 666 plan ahead. Start to understand reality as it is, not the snowflake nonsense that was presumably indoctrinated into your (and all of our) mind(s) since birth. Cross the chasm with me, don’t be left behind with the linear thinkers herd who are incapable of (too lazy/preoccupied by the N.B.A. to do) research and critical reasoning.
Comment:
Martin Armstrong, I am appealing you to please read this carefully so I can impart to you my domain expertise about Bitcoin and the distinction between the bona fide legacy protocol Bitcoin that Satoshi left for us and the mutated protocol so-called “official” Bitcoin Core (which is actually an impostor created by the 2017 New York soft fork agreement which broke the Nash equilibrium).
This is extremely important for you to understand, because predicting the outcome of the monetary reset for the world hinges on this knowledge. I have been attempting to impart this knowledge to you in communications I have sent you over the past few years. You seem to be resistant to learning that although you are correct about the end game of all the cryptocurrencies (except for the legacy Bitcoin) and that none of us will be rescued by cryptocurrency and that cryptocurrency is an evil, you are incorrect about the significance of Bitcoin on the upcoming monetary reset. It is crucial for you understand that legacy Bitcoin will not be accessible to 99.9% of people. It will be the international tier settlement asset in a two-tiered monetary system. The two-tier restriction will be achieved by both the transaction fees being driven to $50,000+ (due to the limited 1 MiB block size for the surviving legacy protocol) and due to FATF et al restricting who can cash in and out of Bitcoin to nation-state fiats.
This is extremely important for you to understand, because predicting the outcome of the monetary reset for the world hinges on this knowledge. I have been attempting to impart this knowledge to you in communications I have sent you over the past few years. You seem to be resistant to learning that although you are correct about the end game of all the cryptocurrencies (except for the legacy Bitcoin) and that none of us will be rescued by cryptocurrency and that cryptocurrency is an evil, you are incorrect about the significance of Bitcoin on the upcoming monetary reset. It is crucial for you understand that legacy Bitcoin will not be accessible to 99.9% of people. It will be the international tier settlement asset in a two-tiered monetary system. The two-tier restriction will be achieved by both the transaction fees being driven to $50,000+ (due to the limited 1 MiB block size for the surviving legacy protocol) and due to FATF et al restricting who can cash in and out of Bitcoin to nation-state fiats.
Comment:
Bitcoin to $0 & Bankruptcy | The Truth.
Kevin very likely in the incoming 2023 to 2024 recession that stock markets will decline to 2008 levels. Because the Fed will not be able QE in 2023 because oil will be spiking north of $200 as a consequence of the West forcing Russia to take the Sulwaki corridor after Lithuania (as a proxy for Brandon) essentially declared war on Russia. The Bolsheviks and Neocons running the U.S.A. now are forcing Russia and China into WW3 intentionally. But international capital will stampede into the dollar and Treasuries because of this, thus relieving the Fed of need to QE at least until the depths of the 2024 Greater Depression/Recession. So after this bounce in the markets incoming into the end of the year (BTC perhaps to ~$50k), GTFO and don’t try to catch a falling knife in real estate either. The model for Bitcoin’s demise which you presented herein aligns very well with the fact that Bitcoin will be “attacked” by the miners. The details can be found on my trading view which is pointed to by my About profile.
Bitcoin's Ominous "terminal impulse"
"Official" (impostor) Bitcoin Core to Drop to $0 in 2023?
Kevin very likely in the incoming 2023 to 2024 recession that stock markets will decline to 2008 levels. Because the Fed will not be able QE in 2023 because oil will be spiking north of $200 as a consequence of the West forcing Russia to take the Sulwaki corridor after Lithuania (as a proxy for Brandon) essentially declared war on Russia. The Bolsheviks and Neocons running the U.S.A. now are forcing Russia and China into WW3 intentionally. But international capital will stampede into the dollar and Treasuries because of this, thus relieving the Fed of need to QE at least until the depths of the 2024 Greater Depression/Recession. So after this bounce in the markets incoming into the end of the year (BTC perhaps to ~$50k), GTFO and don’t try to catch a falling knife in real estate either. The model for Bitcoin’s demise which you presented herein aligns very well with the fact that Bitcoin will be “attacked” by the miners. The details can be found on my trading view which is pointed to by my About profile.
Bitcoin's Ominous "terminal impulse"
"Official" (impostor) Bitcoin Core to Drop to $0 in 2023?
Comment:
Bank of International Settlements (BIS) just launched the process for making Bitcoin a reserve currency, now allowing banks to hold up to 1% of their capital in cryptocurrencies!
youtu.be/q3pPBJiQSvA
youtu.be/q3pPBJiQSvA
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AX2AmK1L...
(Stocks vs Real Estate.)
If you had purchased Bitcoin even at the highest price of $34 in 2011, and sold even at the crash price of $34k in 2022, your $18k investment would have netted $18M in profit. Those of us who were former silver investors, had scooped up BTC at ~$10. My colleague (after asking for my opinion) sold $100k of silver to buy 10,000 BTC. You may remember he bought the castle in Estonia for $1M in BTC in 2014. Another multi-year 100X opportunity is coming in legacy Bitcoin at the ~$5k bottom of the lows in 2023 or 2024.
Houses will be lucky to appreciate double off their bottoms in 2024 because of persistently rising interest rates and property taxes as local government revenues suffer the crunch of the demise of Western civilization and WW3.
Your compelling home investment example requires excellent credit and an income because there’s a limit to debt to income ratio that will be allowed. Also it’s a headache of maintenance, and managing tenants which is also a lawsuit risk. Also houses are immovable so if the Bolsheviks (and Neocons) in control of the USSA decide to essentially confiscate assets (you should familiarize yourself with Civil Asset Forfeiture and its Deodand historical precedent) or suddenly raise taxes (e.g. net worth tax) you can’t leave the country or hide your assets from the Venezuela future of the West.
My upside is still programming new Internet businesses (e.g. a dating site, AirBnB clone on a blockchain) with 1000+X upside on investment time, effort and capital. Houses are old school. I understand it works for you but I could surpass your net worth in the blink of an eye with one stroke of properly applied effort and astute marketing (only my bad health has been holding me back past decade). Health is the most important!
There’s an oversupply of housing for our future demographics, especially suburban housing because the younger generation will choose to live in cubicles in walkable cities as they will be also be dependent on UBI to survive. So the only thing holding up housing is people buying investment homes (e.g. for appreciation and AirBnB/VRBO rentals). There’s probably a higher level of interest rates where the entire paradigm breaks even if buying the dip. Martin Armstrong predicts 6+% Treasuries by ~2026.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AX2AmK1L...
I have a friend that just bought a house last week in Stockton 22,000 down on 540,000 payment of 3900, that’s real life, and that was a rate of 5 percent, your numbers make no sense now, I’ll keep investigating in stocks for the next year or two instead, I believe they can rent there place out for 2400
(Stocks vs Real Estate.)
If you had purchased Bitcoin even at the highest price of $34 in 2011, and sold even at the crash price of $34k in 2022, your $18k investment would have netted $18M in profit. Those of us who were former silver investors, had scooped up BTC at ~$10. My colleague (after asking for my opinion) sold $100k of silver to buy 10,000 BTC. You may remember he bought the castle in Estonia for $1M in BTC in 2014. Another multi-year 100X opportunity is coming in legacy Bitcoin at the ~$5k bottom of the lows in 2023 or 2024.
Houses will be lucky to appreciate double off their bottoms in 2024 because of persistently rising interest rates and property taxes as local government revenues suffer the crunch of the demise of Western civilization and WW3.
Your compelling home investment example requires excellent credit and an income because there’s a limit to debt to income ratio that will be allowed. Also it’s a headache of maintenance, and managing tenants which is also a lawsuit risk. Also houses are immovable so if the Bolsheviks (and Neocons) in control of the USSA decide to essentially confiscate assets (you should familiarize yourself with Civil Asset Forfeiture and its Deodand historical precedent) or suddenly raise taxes (e.g. net worth tax) you can’t leave the country or hide your assets from the Venezuela future of the West.
My upside is still programming new Internet businesses (e.g. a dating site, AirBnB clone on a blockchain) with 1000+X upside on investment time, effort and capital. Houses are old school. I understand it works for you but I could surpass your net worth in the blink of an eye with one stroke of properly applied effort and astute marketing (only my bad health has been holding me back past decade). Health is the most important!
There’s an oversupply of housing for our future demographics, especially suburban housing because the younger generation will choose to live in cubicles in walkable cities as they will be also be dependent on UBI to survive. So the only thing holding up housing is people buying investment homes (e.g. for appreciation and AirBnB/VRBO rentals). There’s probably a higher level of interest rates where the entire paradigm breaks even if buying the dip. Martin Armstrong predicts 6+% Treasuries by ~2026.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AX2AmK1L...
I have a friend that just bought a house last week in Stockton 22,000 down on 540,000 payment of 3900, that’s real life, and that was a rate of 5 percent, your numbers make no sense now, I’ll keep investigating in stocks for the next year or two instead, I believe they can rent there place out for 2400
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...umulation-follow-up/
@otwa2113, there’s substantial liquidity-connected actors on CME futures for Bitcoin which does have gaps. The Bitcoin CME chart adds significantly to my expectation, because the $18.1k CME gap didn’t fill yet even though spot dipped below that level on low weekend volume (retail traders only). Additionally there can be overriding factors at larger scales. I am confident you agree our universe is fractal (or at least that’s a model to consider). I measured the decline of BTC from top of bounce before the crash in May on the CME chart. I measured down from the highest point of the May bounce. Indicates to me the move down did not yet complete. The oscillation around the 1120 for ETH resembles the undamped waffling of a loudspeaker after an impulse signal — as you know differential equations apply. So your assumption is that reversion to the mean probabilities drive the next impulse up, but what if there are overriding factors that generate another downward impulse before your mean reversion is activated. Also the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator crosses (signals) on July 11 and it has called the bottom within 2 days twice before. The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been correct 4 times in Bitcoin’s history. I agree a significant bull trap rally is coming, but there may be other factors outside your assumptions that cause a delay until October. We may only get a bounce to ~$29k (maybe after my expected decline this weekend) and then a pullback in September first. I wish I had time to brush up on the exact methods you’re employing so I could comment more meaninfully and mathematically. I did complete (and top 3 tester) in math courses such as Linear Algebra, Probability and Statitistics Theory, Diff. Eq., Calculus I, II, III, etc. some 37 years ago. But I did not complete a minor in Math although I originally was working on it.
P.S. The impostor Bitcoin going to 0 as I posit, will actually be the Big Bang to drive the legit, legacy protocol Bitcoin to the stratosphere. And I know the exact mechanism because the donations to the miners will fund a massively high hashrate. The Bitcoin price is correlated to the miner’s reward.
@otwa2113, there’s substantial liquidity-connected actors on CME futures for Bitcoin which does have gaps. The Bitcoin CME chart adds significantly to my expectation, because the $18.1k CME gap didn’t fill yet even though spot dipped below that level on low weekend volume (retail traders only). Additionally there can be overriding factors at larger scales. I am confident you agree our universe is fractal (or at least that’s a model to consider). I measured the decline of BTC from top of bounce before the crash in May on the CME chart. I measured down from the highest point of the May bounce. Indicates to me the move down did not yet complete. The oscillation around the 1120 for ETH resembles the undamped waffling of a loudspeaker after an impulse signal — as you know differential equations apply. So your assumption is that reversion to the mean probabilities drive the next impulse up, but what if there are overriding factors that generate another downward impulse before your mean reversion is activated. Also the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator crosses (signals) on July 11 and it has called the bottom within 2 days twice before. The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been correct 4 times in Bitcoin’s history. I agree a significant bull trap rally is coming, but there may be other factors outside your assumptions that cause a delay until October. We may only get a bounce to ~$29k (maybe after my expected decline this weekend) and then a pullback in September first. I wish I had time to brush up on the exact methods you’re employing so I could comment more meaninfully and mathematically. I did complete (and top 3 tester) in math courses such as Linear Algebra, Probability and Statitistics Theory, Diff. Eq., Calculus I, II, III, etc. some 37 years ago. But I did not complete a minor in Math although I originally was working on it.
P.S. The impostor Bitcoin going to 0 as I posit, will actually be the Big Bang to drive the legit, legacy protocol Bitcoin to the stratosphere. And I know the exact mechanism because the donations to the miners will fund a massively high hashrate. The Bitcoin price is correlated to the miner’s reward.
Comment:
Break out obviously. So upside before final bottom.
Thus the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator is going to fail to signal the exact day of the bottom, unless rejected at $22.6k for a rising wedge that’s only on spot not CME. Next overhead resistance is ~$22.6 – 23.7k with a key Fib retracement and maximum of the range bottom $23.2k. Overall upside of T/A pattern projections is at most ~$24.5 – 25k. There’s a gap to fill at ~$29k. For spot the earliest the price could crash back down if not rejected $22.6k is roughly a week from now. Estimates for how long this bounce could play out range from said, to more likely early to late August before rolling over. I still think the bottom is not in, but I will not bet against the obvious breakout until some overhead resistance is hit. If we assume the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator will demarcate the middle of two drives to a bottom, then the spot chart indicates maybe the final bottom will be early August. Whereas for CME would indicate start of fourth week of July. OPTICALARTdotCOM predicts $16.5k for early August.
St. Louis Fed James Bullard was not overly hawkish and expects disinflation would proceed for a soft landing, not a recession. He did not inflame expectations for very hawkish Fed funds increases after July. Also U.S. mortgage rates had a significant drop today. If inflation data next week indicates a topping, then markets could rally significantly. Unless worse than June CPI report, then I don’t expect a renewed crash. I thought there would be more fear this week about the inflation data coming next week, but the break out at significant distance from any T/A pattern apex says I was wrong. Unless earnings guidance is universally bad over the next weeks, then what is the catalyst for another drive to the bottom? The only thing that comes to mind is renewed fears about a 75 basis September Fed Funds hike. Maybe some negative development w.r.t. war with Russia? Remember Shanghai recently reopened production from lockdowns. The rally will get ahead of itself and then some FUD will return but I put odds that is not next week or even the week after.
Thus the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator is going to fail to signal the exact day of the bottom, unless rejected at $22.6k for a rising wedge that’s only on spot not CME. Next overhead resistance is ~$22.6 – 23.7k with a key Fib retracement and maximum of the range bottom $23.2k. Overall upside of T/A pattern projections is at most ~$24.5 – 25k. There’s a gap to fill at ~$29k. For spot the earliest the price could crash back down if not rejected $22.6k is roughly a week from now. Estimates for how long this bounce could play out range from said, to more likely early to late August before rolling over. I still think the bottom is not in, but I will not bet against the obvious breakout until some overhead resistance is hit. If we assume the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator will demarcate the middle of two drives to a bottom, then the spot chart indicates maybe the final bottom will be early August. Whereas for CME would indicate start of fourth week of July. OPTICALARTdotCOM predicts $16.5k for early August.
St. Louis Fed James Bullard was not overly hawkish and expects disinflation would proceed for a soft landing, not a recession. He did not inflame expectations for very hawkish Fed funds increases after July. Also U.S. mortgage rates had a significant drop today. If inflation data next week indicates a topping, then markets could rally significantly. Unless worse than June CPI report, then I don’t expect a renewed crash. I thought there would be more fear this week about the inflation data coming next week, but the break out at significant distance from any T/A pattern apex says I was wrong. Unless earnings guidance is universally bad over the next weeks, then what is the catalyst for another drive to the bottom? The only thing that comes to mind is renewed fears about a 75 basis September Fed Funds hike. Maybe some negative development w.r.t. war with Russia? Remember Shanghai recently reopened production from lockdowns. The rally will get ahead of itself and then some FUD will return but I put odds that is not next week or even the week after.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADtkhZ3O...
(Warning: Bitcoin Is About To Do Something For FIRST TIME IN 11 YEARS!🔥)
@Crypto Crew University your E.W.C. is incorrect. Wave 1 can’t extend beyond the start of wave A of the correction. Wave 1 is where market sentiment remains bearish, which is what gives rise to wave 2. There is an A-B-C correction to the December 2018 bottom and then a wave 1 in 2019 followed by terminal impulse wave 2 that retraced more than 61.8% of wave 1 due to the corona dump. That terminal impulse condition requires that wave 4 retrace back below the top of wave 1 which was $13.9k. We are probably still in wave 4 right now and any bull trap bounce to as high as ~$50k should be sold as the price is going to come crashing back down below $13.9k eventually (perhaps Q1 2023).
(Warning: Bitcoin Is About To Do Something For FIRST TIME IN 11 YEARS!🔥)
@Crypto Crew University your E.W.C. is incorrect. Wave 1 can’t extend beyond the start of wave A of the correction. Wave 1 is where market sentiment remains bearish, which is what gives rise to wave 2. There is an A-B-C correction to the December 2018 bottom and then a wave 1 in 2019 followed by terminal impulse wave 2 that retraced more than 61.8% of wave 1 due to the corona dump. That terminal impulse condition requires that wave 4 retrace back below the top of wave 1 which was $13.9k. We are probably still in wave 4 right now and any bull trap bounce to as high as ~$50k should be sold as the price is going to come crashing back down below $13.9k eventually (perhaps Q1 2023).
Comment:
@Crypto Crew University The alternative is that the candle body of wave 2 did not retrace more than 61.8% of wave 1, thus wave 4 is completing now and we will have a wave 5 to a new ATH perhaps by Q1 2023.
Additionally a flat correction requires that A-B-C is a 3-3-5 wave pattern which obviously is not present in the incorrect E.W.C. you presented.
elliottwave-forecast...elliott-wave-theory/
Additionally a flat correction requires that A-B-C is a 3-3-5 wave pattern which obviously is not present in the incorrect E.W.C. you presented.
elliottwave-forecast...elliott-wave-theory/
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMAo0PLb...
(The Truth about the Massive 2022 Great Recession.)
Kevin indeed there will be a bounce, but eventually this rolls over into the Greater Recession as you have pointed out. And then the VIX will spike. So be prepared to sell the bounce or new ATH later this year or Q1 2023. The incoming bounce will only be the deadcat or final ATH before the egregious recession. Inflation expectations down, but still on a mega-bullish trend. Oil will be $200+ in 2023 simultaneous with a recession. Stagflation on steriods. Catalyst will probably be Russia forced by Lithuania to take the Sulwaki corridor perhaps blamed on the Fed for easing a bit.
(The Truth about the Massive 2022 Great Recession.)
Kevin indeed there will be a bounce, but eventually this rolls over into the Greater Recession as you have pointed out. And then the VIX will spike. So be prepared to sell the bounce or new ATH later this year or Q1 2023. The incoming bounce will only be the deadcat or final ATH before the egregious recession. Inflation expectations down, but still on a mega-bullish trend. Oil will be $200+ in 2023 simultaneous with a recession. Stagflation on steriods. Catalyst will probably be Russia forced by Lithuania to take the Sulwaki corridor perhaps blamed on the Fed for easing a bit.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBCtYLDC...
@Eric Krown Crypto you are very likely correct to expect a decline to $5k, but your timing is likely wrong. That will most likely come in H1 2023. Your Accumulation/Distribution will bottom in October but realize it is a signal that has historically lagged price, i.e. the price will already be in a bullish trajectory by October. Specifically regarding the question of whether BTC will bottom in the vicinity of current low, I want to make you aware of an important point I have been making publicly on my trading view since summer 2021, which is that the Elliot Wave #2 which ended with the corona dump in March 2020 retraced more than 61.8% of wave #1. Most people do not realize that this creates a terminal impulse condition which requires wave #4 to retrace below the top of wave #1 (i.e. below ~$13.9k). Most people are unaware of this Elliot Wave trivia — I had to search extensively to find the information. Within a terminal impulse condition all five Elliot Waves will have an A-B-C pattern, not just the corrective waves 2 and 4. So if BTC bottoms above $13.9k, then we know this correction from the November 2021 ATH was only wave A, thus there would follow a bounce B, then much later a deeper correction C. My measurements indicate that bull trap wave B would end approximately December at ~$47 to 53k. Then the crash would be in H1 2023 to ~$5k. Whereas, if BTC retraces now to below $13.9k, then it would mean wave #4 is complete and thus wave #5 would result in a new ATH in 2023. I have charted this on my public trading view. Actually in summer 2021, I identified a strange megaphone-like pattern comprising the price action from the summer 2019 high $13.9k to the corona dump. I publicly posited at that time even before the second ATH in 2021 that the megaphone pattern would repeat. And the megaphone pattern is repeating! Thus indications are that wave #4 will not complete now and instead there will be bullish move to ~$50k in Q4 which is a fractal pattern repeat of the move from November 2019 to the February 2020 high before the corona dump. Note there was a double bottom in November 2019 and thus I agree with you that after the current bounce, Bitcoin will come back down to make a slightly higher or lower low perhaps in August. If I am correct then after the bounce in Q4 to ~$50k to complete wave B, then BTC will make an insane dump mimicking the corona dump which will be wave C of wave 4 dropping from ~$50k to ~$5k (perhaps in vertical plunge similar to March 2020). I hope this information helps you. I do not want you to get caught off guard by these possibilities. The methods you use are also very helpful and appreciated. Note I am not interested in being an influencer. I am a block chain developer and master computer programmer. Been programming since 1978. So please do not think I am trying to steal any of your thunder, ride your coat tails, nor am I seeking free promotion — I do not need it. You work very hard to build your subscriber base. My gosh a video nearly every day for 4 years? Kudos.
Btw, I also note confluence $15.5 – $16.2k such as Fib retracement levels, 300 WMA, and your Accumulation/Distribution average decline.
@Eric Krown Crypto you are very likely correct to expect a decline to $5k, but your timing is likely wrong. That will most likely come in H1 2023. Your Accumulation/Distribution will bottom in October but realize it is a signal that has historically lagged price, i.e. the price will already be in a bullish trajectory by October. Specifically regarding the question of whether BTC will bottom in the vicinity of current low, I want to make you aware of an important point I have been making publicly on my trading view since summer 2021, which is that the Elliot Wave #2 which ended with the corona dump in March 2020 retraced more than 61.8% of wave #1. Most people do not realize that this creates a terminal impulse condition which requires wave #4 to retrace below the top of wave #1 (i.e. below ~$13.9k). Most people are unaware of this Elliot Wave trivia — I had to search extensively to find the information. Within a terminal impulse condition all five Elliot Waves will have an A-B-C pattern, not just the corrective waves 2 and 4. So if BTC bottoms above $13.9k, then we know this correction from the November 2021 ATH was only wave A, thus there would follow a bounce B, then much later a deeper correction C. My measurements indicate that bull trap wave B would end approximately December at ~$47 to 53k. Then the crash would be in H1 2023 to ~$5k. Whereas, if BTC retraces now to below $13.9k, then it would mean wave #4 is complete and thus wave #5 would result in a new ATH in 2023. I have charted this on my public trading view. Actually in summer 2021, I identified a strange megaphone-like pattern comprising the price action from the summer 2019 high $13.9k to the corona dump. I publicly posited at that time even before the second ATH in 2021 that the megaphone pattern would repeat. And the megaphone pattern is repeating! Thus indications are that wave #4 will not complete now and instead there will be bullish move to ~$50k in Q4 which is a fractal pattern repeat of the move from November 2019 to the February 2020 high before the corona dump. Note there was a double bottom in November 2019 and thus I agree with you that after the current bounce, Bitcoin will come back down to make a slightly higher or lower low perhaps in August. If I am correct then after the bounce in Q4 to ~$50k to complete wave B, then BTC will make an insane dump mimicking the corona dump which will be wave C of wave 4 dropping from ~$50k to ~$5k (perhaps in vertical plunge similar to March 2020). I hope this information helps you. I do not want you to get caught off guard by these possibilities. The methods you use are also very helpful and appreciated. Note I am not interested in being an influencer. I am a block chain developer and master computer programmer. Been programming since 1978. So please do not think I am trying to steal any of your thunder, ride your coat tails, nor am I seeking free promotion — I do not need it. You work very hard to build your subscriber base. My gosh a video nearly every day for 4 years? Kudos.
Btw, I also note confluence $15.5 – $16.2k such as Fib retracement levels, 300 WMA, and your Accumulation/Distribution average decline.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBCtYLDC...
@Eric Krown Crypto I will elaborate a bit now on why I think sub-$15k will not be hit until after a bounce to ~$50k. Didn’t want to cram all my thoughts in my previous comment. Firstly because there’s so much exasperation, negativity and fear right now, so the market will do the opposite of the what the herd expects. Obviously we do not have the cathartic capitulation yet, but much better to wreck the herd by first a bounce to $50k so they FOMO in expecting a new ATH, then slam the price down from $50k to $5k with another corona-dump-like vertical drop. Btw, I have deep technological knowledge about an attack coming against Bitcoin and so that might be the cause of the posited, future vertical drop that will fleece most everyone in crypto as they will not be expecting it. The posited incoming bounce to ~$50k is likely to be driven by the S&P and Nasdaq also experiencing a significant bull trap rally due to the fact that inflation will roll over and print maybe 6% in September, the Fed will slow down or even pause rate hikes due to the threat of a recession. This will cause the stock markets to go bananas with a massive short squeeze. Also the Demonrats (democrats) needs this respite for their November 2022 midterm elections aspirations (at least another plausible deniability excuse to rig and steal it again), thus they are going to temporarily back off the crap they (the Bolsheviks and Neocons who rigged and stole the 2020 election) have been doing to intentionally destroy the supply chain and make energy more expensive. But after the election they will make their next move to force Russia to escalate and invade the Sulwaki corridor in Lithuania. Expect $200+ oil, inflation skyrocketing again in 2023, while the global economy falls into a Greater Recession (than 2008). So the black swan corona-like event coming in Q1 2023 is probably Russia versus NATO in Lithuania. There really is order in chaos, if you do extensive research as I do.
@Eric Krown Crypto I will elaborate a bit now on why I think sub-$15k will not be hit until after a bounce to ~$50k. Didn’t want to cram all my thoughts in my previous comment. Firstly because there’s so much exasperation, negativity and fear right now, so the market will do the opposite of the what the herd expects. Obviously we do not have the cathartic capitulation yet, but much better to wreck the herd by first a bounce to $50k so they FOMO in expecting a new ATH, then slam the price down from $50k to $5k with another corona-dump-like vertical drop. Btw, I have deep technological knowledge about an attack coming against Bitcoin and so that might be the cause of the posited, future vertical drop that will fleece most everyone in crypto as they will not be expecting it. The posited incoming bounce to ~$50k is likely to be driven by the S&P and Nasdaq also experiencing a significant bull trap rally due to the fact that inflation will roll over and print maybe 6% in September, the Fed will slow down or even pause rate hikes due to the threat of a recession. This will cause the stock markets to go bananas with a massive short squeeze. Also the Demonrats (democrats) needs this respite for their November 2022 midterm elections aspirations (at least another plausible deniability excuse to rig and steal it again), thus they are going to temporarily back off the crap they (the Bolsheviks and Neocons who rigged and stole the 2020 election) have been doing to intentionally destroy the supply chain and make energy more expensive. But after the election they will make their next move to force Russia to escalate and invade the Sulwaki corridor in Lithuania. Expect $200+ oil, inflation skyrocketing again in 2023, while the global economy falls into a Greater Recession (than 2008). So the black swan corona-like event coming in Q1 2023 is probably Russia versus NATO in Lithuania. There really is order in chaos, if you do extensive research as I do.
Comment:
Also note for the yellow Elliot Wave structure that the terminal impulse condition created when yellow-labeled wave #2 retraced more than 61.8% of wave #1, did result in wave #4 retracing below the top of wave #1. So expect that to happen again whenever the current wave #4 completes.
More discussion in my latest published idea:
More discussion in my latest published idea:
Comment:
Martin Armstrong, there is an important link below about the real reason for the attack on the Dutch farmers.
I have tried over the years to educate you about why Bitcoin will become the global reserve currency in a two-tiered monetary system wherein the plebs will be using 666-like, centralized (central bank) digital currencies (CBDCs). Yet you ostensibly continue to refuse to read and comprehend. Thus you continue to gloat whenever cryptocurrency declines from a peak. Note most of the cryptocosm will die eventually (perhaps in 2024) as did most of the Dot.com startups.
Did Amazon.com not survive the Dot.com bubble and disintermediate the world?
You do not seem to fully understand the entire implications of a very fundamental thesis about how the world is being disintermediated from tangible to intangible:
Demise of Finance, Rise of Knowledge.html
Read the following and make sure you also read my technical explanation carefully (not the Elliot Wave ‘terminal impulse’ theory but the technological and game theoretic explanation in the idea updates, scroll down the page):
Bitcoin's Ominous "terminal impulse"
Shelby Moore, {7/14/22 9:54 AM}
Armstrong’s Ethereum monthly Forecast Array chart published on his May 20, 2022 blog Can Cryptocurrencies Survive WWIII?, expected a Long-term and Direction Change bottom in June (after the Direction Change in May for the crash), followed by (in a bottoming context presumably) a slingshot stomp down and then a breakout to the upside Panic Cycle in July, then a pullback from Sep, and then rally from Oct to Jan with a January Long-term top. This concurs with my favored published scenario for a bull trap BTC rebound to ~$50k by Q1 2023.
His private blog Bitcoin the Biggest Ponzi Scheme in History? contains a quarterly forecast array for Bitcoin, suggesting that July moves up from and/or is the low, Oct to Jan will be the relief rally bull trap. He says the monthly forecast array has a Panic Cycle in August — presumably a slingshot following on Ethereum‘s July. He says Monthly Bearish Reversal $10370 not yet elected, thus can be strong rebounds and wild volatility.
Shelby Moore, {7/14/22 12:10 PM}
{In reply to anonymous}
> “Btw, understand that the whole cutting Nitrogen use by 30% thing in the Netherlands with the farmers is a pretext to build some kind of large single city network - prototype Smart City perhaps - stretching into Germany and Belgium”
My 2012 essay thesis (and recent follow-up) predicts this. The mechanistic (your term for tangible), financiable world is becoming so devalued (i.e. economically nonviable) w.r.t. individually possessed knowledge (i.e. the posited Knowledge Age) that it must increase economies-of-scale (in blobs of human protoplasm) and efficiencies in costs, technological-integration in a futile attempt to remain viable. Physical efficiencies can no longer compete against information which transmits electronically at the speed-of-light (or actually independent of time but that’s a multiverse concept!). The knowledge-capital-bankrupt masses will huddle together in a dismal attempt to remain economically relevant. To the extent the Knowledge Age can leverage such smart cities and not be retarded by them (e.g. via technological disintermediation and obfuscation), these meat space developments may have viable utility in addition to being massive “reeducation camps” (i.e. 666-like, China’s digital panopticon, The Stepford Wives) for the unenlightened masses. This is all natural and expected by my 2012 essay thesis (and recent follow-up) about nature and the Universe.
> “Yeah, if/when the CBDCs and track & trace bio-surveilance are in place it's game over. The majority of people seem unable to comprehend the importance of this total loss of personal sovereignty, and that they and their offspring will become perpetual digital serfs.”
They won't need to understand, they will naturally embrace the Knowledge Age because that’s where all economic growth will lie.
Game over for buying tangible goods that have been in a race to the abyss for negative profit margins sustained by debt and fiat money printing (i.e. subsidies) — I had pointed out years ago how the marginal-utility-of-debt has gone negative. My 2012 essay explained that China was enslaving its billions to subsidize the global debt bubble. The entire financiable era is huddling together and imploding into totalitarianism because it’s a bankrupt paradigm as my 2012 essay Demise of Finance, Rise of Knowledge thesis posited, predicted and explained. And those people who don’t figure out how to offboard will sink with the totalitarian Titanic.
But why would the decentralized Internet space (which is the critical infrastructure of the Knowledge Age) adopt centralized, totalitarian currencies? That sector would only do so if all decentralized options were assailable and thus nonviable. And that sector will become 99% of the economy in the coming decades as the Industrial Age is economically relegated as the Agricultural Age before. Why? Because knowledge is more valuable — iron was historically a precious metal until technology changed that and as the recent Uganda discovery exemplifies eventually gold will no longer be a precious metal. Long before Musk created his Boring Company, I proposed that autonomous boring bots could following ore veins in the process of exploration causing the supply of gold to skyrocket.
It will only take a few examples of centralized control wrecking the freedom of knowledge accretion to cause knowledge accretion to shift away from CBDCs, analogous to how Russia and China are dehitching from the Western financial system and launching their own monetary system cooperation.
Good luck to the government trying to ban quadrillions of $0.01 transactions. If the government attempts ban encryption (which they can not do!) then we will employ steganography.
I have tried over the years to educate you about why Bitcoin will become the global reserve currency in a two-tiered monetary system wherein the plebs will be using 666-like, centralized (central bank) digital currencies (CBDCs). Yet you ostensibly continue to refuse to read and comprehend. Thus you continue to gloat whenever cryptocurrency declines from a peak. Note most of the cryptocosm will die eventually (perhaps in 2024) as did most of the Dot.com startups.
Did Amazon.com not survive the Dot.com bubble and disintermediate the world?
You do not seem to fully understand the entire implications of a very fundamental thesis about how the world is being disintermediated from tangible to intangible:
Demise of Finance, Rise of Knowledge.html
Read the following and make sure you also read my technical explanation carefully (not the Elliot Wave ‘terminal impulse’ theory but the technological and game theoretic explanation in the idea updates, scroll down the page):
Bitcoin's Ominous "terminal impulse"
Shelby Moore, {7/14/22 9:54 AM}
Armstrong’s Ethereum monthly Forecast Array chart published on his May 20, 2022 blog Can Cryptocurrencies Survive WWIII?, expected a Long-term and Direction Change bottom in June (after the Direction Change in May for the crash), followed by (in a bottoming context presumably) a slingshot stomp down and then a breakout to the upside Panic Cycle in July, then a pullback from Sep, and then rally from Oct to Jan with a January Long-term top. This concurs with my favored published scenario for a bull trap BTC rebound to ~$50k by Q1 2023.
His private blog Bitcoin the Biggest Ponzi Scheme in History? contains a quarterly forecast array for Bitcoin, suggesting that July moves up from and/or is the low, Oct to Jan will be the relief rally bull trap. He says the monthly forecast array has a Panic Cycle in August — presumably a slingshot following on Ethereum‘s July. He says Monthly Bearish Reversal $10370 not yet elected, thus can be strong rebounds and wild volatility.
Shelby Moore, {7/14/22 12:10 PM}
{In reply to anonymous}
> “Btw, understand that the whole cutting Nitrogen use by 30% thing in the Netherlands with the farmers is a pretext to build some kind of large single city network - prototype Smart City perhaps - stretching into Germany and Belgium”
My 2012 essay thesis (and recent follow-up) predicts this. The mechanistic (your term for tangible), financiable world is becoming so devalued (i.e. economically nonviable) w.r.t. individually possessed knowledge (i.e. the posited Knowledge Age) that it must increase economies-of-scale (in blobs of human protoplasm) and efficiencies in costs, technological-integration in a futile attempt to remain viable. Physical efficiencies can no longer compete against information which transmits electronically at the speed-of-light (or actually independent of time but that’s a multiverse concept!). The knowledge-capital-bankrupt masses will huddle together in a dismal attempt to remain economically relevant. To the extent the Knowledge Age can leverage such smart cities and not be retarded by them (e.g. via technological disintermediation and obfuscation), these meat space developments may have viable utility in addition to being massive “reeducation camps” (i.e. 666-like, China’s digital panopticon, The Stepford Wives) for the unenlightened masses. This is all natural and expected by my 2012 essay thesis (and recent follow-up) about nature and the Universe.
> “Yeah, if/when the CBDCs and track & trace bio-surveilance are in place it's game over. The majority of people seem unable to comprehend the importance of this total loss of personal sovereignty, and that they and their offspring will become perpetual digital serfs.”
They won't need to understand, they will naturally embrace the Knowledge Age because that’s where all economic growth will lie.
Game over for buying tangible goods that have been in a race to the abyss for negative profit margins sustained by debt and fiat money printing (i.e. subsidies) — I had pointed out years ago how the marginal-utility-of-debt has gone negative. My 2012 essay explained that China was enslaving its billions to subsidize the global debt bubble. The entire financiable era is huddling together and imploding into totalitarianism because it’s a bankrupt paradigm as my 2012 essay Demise of Finance, Rise of Knowledge thesis posited, predicted and explained. And those people who don’t figure out how to offboard will sink with the totalitarian Titanic.
But why would the decentralized Internet space (which is the critical infrastructure of the Knowledge Age) adopt centralized, totalitarian currencies? That sector would only do so if all decentralized options were assailable and thus nonviable. And that sector will become 99% of the economy in the coming decades as the Industrial Age is economically relegated as the Agricultural Age before. Why? Because knowledge is more valuable — iron was historically a precious metal until technology changed that and as the recent Uganda discovery exemplifies eventually gold will no longer be a precious metal. Long before Musk created his Boring Company, I proposed that autonomous boring bots could following ore veins in the process of exploration causing the supply of gold to skyrocket.
It will only take a few examples of centralized control wrecking the freedom of knowledge accretion to cause knowledge accretion to shift away from CBDCs, analogous to how Russia and China are dehitching from the Western financial system and launching their own monetary system cooperation.
Good luck to the government trying to ban quadrillions of $0.01 transactions. If the government attempts ban encryption (which they can not do!) then we will employ steganography.
Comment:
Armstrong is an absolute idiot about cryptocurrency. No matter how many times I email him to try to politely explain to him, he still continues to erroneously state that the government can confiscate crypto. The private keys for crypto can be held inside someone’s head. How is the government supposed to confiscate that which I have only memorized? Is the government going to waterboard torture a billion people to force them to puke up their private keys? Armstrong is thinking in terms of brick&mortar transactions — he should study game currencies and imagine them entirely decentralized. I’m flabberghast that Martin would write such idiotic statements, given he claims to understand computer science.
The government could confiscate anything centralized, such as preventing conversion to/from the fiat system (although people can always find a way around this in the black market and good luck to the government trying to track billions of people trading favors with their friends or relatives or some decentralized matchmaking blackmarket akin to Localbitcoins but decentralized P2P). But knowledge age actors don’t need fiat — read my 2012 essay! Potentially although far-fetched nearly impossible to organize, the world government via an institution such as the FATF and/or FASB could regulate all Bitcoin miners worldwide forcing them to honor a global blacklist for confiscating BTC (or block transactions) from the actual decentralied ledger. But Bitcoin mining can move, as it has in 2021 left China. So the blacklist would need to have no defection (e.g. El Salvador must first be enslaved by the world government and the IMF) any where on earth or outer space (yes satellites may be sovereign!). And besides I already devised a consensus system that entirely evade such plans of any world government. So Armstrong is simply wrong. Bitcoin does not depend on the power grid, as it could be run entirely off solar and the blocks could be broadcast over shortwave radio. Eventually some governments (e.g. NATO countries to fulfill Deagel’s prediction for their 50 – 75% depopulation) may attempt to implement something like China’s Great Firewall, but this will just cause those societies hitched to the tangible age to implode faster as the knowledge age extracts themselves and their knowledge age capital from Iron Curtain jurisdictions.
Armstrong made the dumbest mistake ever which exemplifies that he is stuck in the atavistic Industrial Age and can’t grok that he just wrote the exact antithesis of the reality of what is coming, “The only thing outside the fiat system as they want to call it is EVERYTHING tangible from real estate, stocks, collectibles, and precious metals.” Everything tangible will become relatively worthless precisely because it can’t evade the societalcide (satellites and drones can monitor you). Whereas everything informational (digital) can be decentralized in such minute granularity, intraceability and obfuscation so as to evade the collapsing societalcide. If you want to end up in the poor house, then listen to Armstrong’s ignorant prognostication.
“Call me old fashion, old-school, or just old. But the most PRACTICAL thing you can do is have pre-1965 silver coins that the average person can recognize and see the date knowing that it is valuable.”
Yep Martin you are ostensibly blinded by your old age and inability to think objectively about this topic. Silver coins are laughable — the most idiotic possible thing someone could do.
“Just because you understand something does not mean everyone does.”
Nobody thinks silver is money any more. Nobody uses coins. Everyone uses digital money. GAFC Martin. You lost touch with society in the decade you were in prison and in the decade or so hence, you have been too busy to see how much the world has changed.
“Cryptocurrencies are TRADING VEHICLES but not a long-term asset class. Our computer called the top in the cryptos, and it has been the ONLY unbiased forecaster out there.”
As was the case for the Dot.com bubble most are just exit scams and schemes and will plummet to $0 eventually. But there is an Amazon.com lurking in the cryptospace and maybe also a Paypal, Twitter, etc.. Don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater.
Armstrong’s private blog Bitcoin the Biggest Ponzi Scheme in History? ridicules those who claimed Bitcoin will become a reserve currency. I presume Marty is reacting to my emails to him explaining the technological, economics and game theory mechanism by which the legacy protocol Bitcoin will rise from the ashes of the bust of the cryptocosm bubble. The old fart will ignorantly gloat for now, but will he run away and hide when I am proven correct, as the “152+” IQ Eric S. Raymond did when I was vindicated (e.g. absolute, unequivocal proof of the WTC7 demolition on 9/11) about all our arguments on his blog which he banned me for. Eric stopped blogging in 2020 and disappeared after he was removed by the societalcide from the Open Source Foundation that he helped created, lol. I wonder if Martin will do the same when I am vindicated? I have tried to be nice and communicate in a respective tone to these guys and they are obstinate fools who refuse to learn anything new that goes against their subjective confirmation bias.
Yes crypto peaked in 2021, as it did in 2017, as it did in 2013, as it did in… every single time these troglodyte idiots such as Martin Armstrong and Peter Schiff come out gloating crypto has permanently peaked and will never go higher. Because they do not understand It Is Just Time for the Knowledge Age to rise disintermediating and bankrupting the tangible age that is dying. The Boomers will never, ever understand it.
I guess I should stop trying to communicate this to Boomers. Let them out to pasture as they’re ostensibly too old, brains too ossified to adjust and save themselves.
The government could confiscate anything centralized, such as preventing conversion to/from the fiat system (although people can always find a way around this in the black market and good luck to the government trying to track billions of people trading favors with their friends or relatives or some decentralized matchmaking blackmarket akin to Localbitcoins but decentralized P2P). But knowledge age actors don’t need fiat — read my 2012 essay! Potentially although far-fetched nearly impossible to organize, the world government via an institution such as the FATF and/or FASB could regulate all Bitcoin miners worldwide forcing them to honor a global blacklist for confiscating BTC (or block transactions) from the actual decentralied ledger. But Bitcoin mining can move, as it has in 2021 left China. So the blacklist would need to have no defection (e.g. El Salvador must first be enslaved by the world government and the IMF) any where on earth or outer space (yes satellites may be sovereign!). And besides I already devised a consensus system that entirely evade such plans of any world government. So Armstrong is simply wrong. Bitcoin does not depend on the power grid, as it could be run entirely off solar and the blocks could be broadcast over shortwave radio. Eventually some governments (e.g. NATO countries to fulfill Deagel’s prediction for their 50 – 75% depopulation) may attempt to implement something like China’s Great Firewall, but this will just cause those societies hitched to the tangible age to implode faster as the knowledge age extracts themselves and their knowledge age capital from Iron Curtain jurisdictions.
Armstrong made the dumbest mistake ever which exemplifies that he is stuck in the atavistic Industrial Age and can’t grok that he just wrote the exact antithesis of the reality of what is coming, “The only thing outside the fiat system as they want to call it is EVERYTHING tangible from real estate, stocks, collectibles, and precious metals.” Everything tangible will become relatively worthless precisely because it can’t evade the societalcide (satellites and drones can monitor you). Whereas everything informational (digital) can be decentralized in such minute granularity, intraceability and obfuscation so as to evade the collapsing societalcide. If you want to end up in the poor house, then listen to Armstrong’s ignorant prognostication.
“Call me old fashion, old-school, or just old. But the most PRACTICAL thing you can do is have pre-1965 silver coins that the average person can recognize and see the date knowing that it is valuable.”
Yep Martin you are ostensibly blinded by your old age and inability to think objectively about this topic. Silver coins are laughable — the most idiotic possible thing someone could do.
“Just because you understand something does not mean everyone does.”
Nobody thinks silver is money any more. Nobody uses coins. Everyone uses digital money. GAFC Martin. You lost touch with society in the decade you were in prison and in the decade or so hence, you have been too busy to see how much the world has changed.
“Cryptocurrencies are TRADING VEHICLES but not a long-term asset class. Our computer called the top in the cryptos, and it has been the ONLY unbiased forecaster out there.”
As was the case for the Dot.com bubble most are just exit scams and schemes and will plummet to $0 eventually. But there is an Amazon.com lurking in the cryptospace and maybe also a Paypal, Twitter, etc.. Don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater.
Armstrong’s private blog Bitcoin the Biggest Ponzi Scheme in History? ridicules those who claimed Bitcoin will become a reserve currency. I presume Marty is reacting to my emails to him explaining the technological, economics and game theory mechanism by which the legacy protocol Bitcoin will rise from the ashes of the bust of the cryptocosm bubble. The old fart will ignorantly gloat for now, but will he run away and hide when I am proven correct, as the “152+” IQ Eric S. Raymond did when I was vindicated (e.g. absolute, unequivocal proof of the WTC7 demolition on 9/11) about all our arguments on his blog which he banned me for. Eric stopped blogging in 2020 and disappeared after he was removed by the societalcide from the Open Source Foundation that he helped created, lol. I wonder if Martin will do the same when I am vindicated? I have tried to be nice and communicate in a respective tone to these guys and they are obstinate fools who refuse to learn anything new that goes against their subjective confirmation bias.
Yes crypto peaked in 2021, as it did in 2017, as it did in 2013, as it did in… every single time these troglodyte idiots such as Martin Armstrong and Peter Schiff come out gloating crypto has permanently peaked and will never go higher. Because they do not understand It Is Just Time for the Knowledge Age to rise disintermediating and bankrupting the tangible age that is dying. The Boomers will never, ever understand it.
I guess I should stop trying to communicate this to Boomers. Let them out to pasture as they’re ostensibly too old, brains too ossified to adjust and save themselves.
Comment:
CORRECTION/CLARIFICATION: The flaw in Bitcoin is that if 50+% of the miners enforce censorship of transactions, then the minority can not defect. Thus an eventual globalist managed blacklist is eventually plausible. That is what my consensus algorithm fixes. And this is yet another reason that I posit that Bitcoin is a 666 enslavement launched by the global elite (perhaps Rothschild’s think tank).
Comment:
IMPORTANT:
youtu.be/R1pueM9ujr4
(It’s About to be A Wild Ride for the SP500 | Why Volatility is About to CRUSH Investors)
youtu.be/R1pueM9ujr4
(It’s About to be A Wild Ride for the SP500 | Why Volatility is About to CRUSH Investors)
Comment:
Unlike in the 1970s, spikes in price inflation aren’t leading to massive unemployment. Instead more like before the Dotcom and 2008 crash. Duh! Because Westerners can pay the higher prices as they’re heavily invested in assets that have gone up more than inflation, e.g. stocks and housing. The massive unemployment won’t happen until the massive implosion of investment assets. Also the Western governments are subsidizing those who are not invested.
youtu.be/j5H9kU5R3go?t=475
(Why Stocks are Completely Disconnected From Reality.)
youtu.be/j5H9kU5R3go?t=475
(Why Stocks are Completely Disconnected From Reality.)
Comment:
This confirms BTC will not be rallying to new ATHs until after the bottom of the 2024 recession and market crash.
twitter.com/venturef.../1549577722300715010
(click for the chart)
twitter.com/venturef.../1549577722300715010
(click for the chart)
Comment:
twitter.com/venturef.../1549581172077912064
(click for chart)
“After bouncing off the golden trendline support, $ETH/#BTC also at monthly high here:
In the best case, if #ETH2 serves as an event meaningful enough to trump US risk-asset macro, ETH could resume in a new bulltrend like 2017. Otherwise it may sell off to golden trendline again.”
twitter.com/venturef.../1549581172077912064
(click for chart)
“After bouncing off the golden trendline support, $ETH/#BTC also at monthly high here:
In the best case, if #ETH2 serves as an event meaningful enough to trump US risk-asset macro, ETH could resume in a new bulltrend like 2017. Otherwise it may sell off to golden trendline again.”
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9A1JsgB...
@Crypto Zombie You have better sell the significant rallies, because there’s an ominous Anyone Can Spend attack looming. There’s only one legitimate Bitcoin, but it is not BSV, BTC, BCH. The impostor Bitcoin Core which you presumably hodl, will go to $0 when the miners proceed to restore the Nash equilibrium and take the 14 million BTC booty that the impostor 2017 soft fork created. You have been warned multiple times but you continue to ignore me at your peril. I have written extensively about the unequivocal game theory. Even worse than going to $0, is the restoration “attack” will cause you to receive a free air drop of Core sh8tcoins (your legacy will be donated to the miners if you did not store in a legacy address), which means a massive income tax obligation preceding the price crash but you will be unable to sell for complex reasons I explained in detail.
@Crypto Zombie You have better sell the significant rallies, because there’s an ominous Anyone Can Spend attack looming. There’s only one legitimate Bitcoin, but it is not BSV, BTC, BCH. The impostor Bitcoin Core which you presumably hodl, will go to $0 when the miners proceed to restore the Nash equilibrium and take the 14 million BTC booty that the impostor 2017 soft fork created. You have been warned multiple times but you continue to ignore me at your peril. I have written extensively about the unequivocal game theory. Even worse than going to $0, is the restoration “attack” will cause you to receive a free air drop of Core sh8tcoins (your legacy will be donated to the miners if you did not store in a legacy address), which means a massive income tax obligation preceding the price crash but you will be unable to sell for complex reasons I explained in detail.
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...-toward-20-3k-20-4k/
Bitcoin will make a new ATH in 2023! Or at least close to it, c.f. this yearly chart.
Let’s analyse the pattern. 2019 almost got back to the ATH and that appears to be repeating except note in 2019 that stock markets did make ATHs and crypto is more correlated with stock markets now than in 2019 (as evidenced by the relative Fib amplification compared to 2019, crypto bottoming on same day and other metrics of correlation).
Notice that 2020 printed a new ATH after 2018 red year. Whereas only 2017 was new ATH after 2014 red year. 2019 was more correlated to stocks and 2022 even more correlated.
2024 will be a near vertical move to an egregiously higher high ~$1 million for legacy Bitcoin after a crash to $7k or lower.
thus the next one from 2024 may be only 6 months in duration and near vertical
Bitcoin will make a new ATH in 2023! Or at least close to it, c.f. this yearly chart.
Let’s analyse the pattern. 2019 almost got back to the ATH and that appears to be repeating except note in 2019 that stock markets did make ATHs and crypto is more correlated with stock markets now than in 2019 (as evidenced by the relative Fib amplification compared to 2019, crypto bottoming on same day and other metrics of correlation).
Notice that 2020 printed a new ATH after 2018 red year. Whereas only 2017 was new ATH after 2014 red year. 2019 was more correlated to stocks and 2022 even more correlated.
2024 will be a near vertical move to an egregiously higher high ~$1 million for legacy Bitcoin after a crash to $7k or lower.
thus the next one from 2024 may be only 6 months in duration and near vertical
Comment:
BTC, ETH and ADA prices respectively. My current outlook is for a potential continued relief rally tomorrow to ~21.9–22.8k, 1720–1820 and 0.48–0.50. with a decline into the end of the week to ~19.3–20.4k, 1475 and 0.40–0.43. A bull trap rally next week to ~25.7k, 2500 and 0.59–0.69. A decline into third week of September ~18.1–19.3k, 1300 and 0.40–0.45 (SPX to ~3980). A rally into Nov/Dec 42k, 3400 and 1.45 as ETH and ADA slam into their overhead resistance trend lines on my recent chart updates. Pullback and two more surges into January and March with final tops 60–65k, 4100–4200 and 1.55.
What’s not clear is whether ETH and ADA will under perform from that juncture as they did in 2019. Will they stay trapped under their said overhead trend lines or will the bullish EW count (c.f. my published updates) hold and they proceed up to new ATHs to complete their posited, major wave 5?
BTC will decline until May perhaps to ~36k. Then it will rally to ~75k (70–80k, i.e. a “triple, quadruple or double-double” top) into Q4 2023 (perhaps a Sept/Oct peak), presumably due to the Fed forced to become more dovish but not yet rockets-to-da-moon QE (as was the case in 2019 as noted in my recent updates). A FLASH CRASH (Russia invades Lithuania and takes the Sulwaki Corridor?) will seek egregious lows ~5–7k, 120–300 and 0.03–0.10 by end of 2024. Readers repeat after me, ‘ANYONECANSPEND restoration, donations-to-the-miners “attack”.‘ Note timing could be extended by a couple of months or so. I’m expecting the SPX to crash -62.5% from ~5900 to ~2180. Note every percentage decline on the SPX has been increasing by 1.75 so the -35.5% corona flash crash will be amplified. Many exchanges and stable coins may fail so keep that in mind if attempting to short the cryptocurrencies.
The Fed will be forced to QE-to-da-moon again but with inflation already hot a.f. due to accelerating international war and sanctions thereof. The Fed will discover they are pushing on a string (marginal-utility-of-debt gone egregiously negative) so they are likely to be unable to control interest rates and non-speculative, non-FOMO legacy (i.e. Satoshi’s immutable protocol, not BTC, BCH nor BSV!) Bitcoin should finally start mooning on fear (as gold does) as the monetary reset looms.
The altcoins (all that FOMO, speculative dogesh8t, including the altcoin Bitcoin Core which was created by the corruption on the 2017 N.Y. Agreement soft fork…soft forks are deceptions and must eventually hard fork/f-ck) will have declined for the first time to well below their prior cycle ATHs indicating the end of their half-decade bull market (all except LTC launched ~2017). The proof-of-work altcoins will be destroyed by repeated, difficulty-bomb non-readjustment attacks. The proof-of-stake sh8tcoins will be attacked by government regulation as they are folded into the orbit of the central bank digital currencies’ (CBDCs’) dominion — as TPTB try to enslave us in totalitarian, negative interest rates aka capital controls by trying to end the free market with their futile, diabolical “Great Reset” collateral damage wrecking ball.
ETH may form a bearish double-top and/or decade long, bearish, H&S pattern projecting to $0. All cryptocurrencies other than legacy Bitcoin to $0 whilst Satoshi’s Phoenix rises to $1 million.
ETH:BTC appears to be dying. It peaked in 2017 and now is dead cat rallying in a bearish rising channel or wedge.
Ditto ADA:BTC:
What’s not clear is whether ETH and ADA will under perform from that juncture as they did in 2019. Will they stay trapped under their said overhead trend lines or will the bullish EW count (c.f. my published updates) hold and they proceed up to new ATHs to complete their posited, major wave 5?
BTC will decline until May perhaps to ~36k. Then it will rally to ~75k (70–80k, i.e. a “triple, quadruple or double-double” top) into Q4 2023 (perhaps a Sept/Oct peak), presumably due to the Fed forced to become more dovish but not yet rockets-to-da-moon QE (as was the case in 2019 as noted in my recent updates). A FLASH CRASH (Russia invades Lithuania and takes the Sulwaki Corridor?) will seek egregious lows ~5–7k, 120–300 and 0.03–0.10 by end of 2024. Readers repeat after me, ‘ANYONECANSPEND restoration, donations-to-the-miners “attack”.‘ Note timing could be extended by a couple of months or so. I’m expecting the SPX to crash -62.5% from ~5900 to ~2180. Note every percentage decline on the SPX has been increasing by 1.75 so the -35.5% corona flash crash will be amplified. Many exchanges and stable coins may fail so keep that in mind if attempting to short the cryptocurrencies.
The Fed will be forced to QE-to-da-moon again but with inflation already hot a.f. due to accelerating international war and sanctions thereof. The Fed will discover they are pushing on a string (marginal-utility-of-debt gone egregiously negative) so they are likely to be unable to control interest rates and non-speculative, non-FOMO legacy (i.e. Satoshi’s immutable protocol, not BTC, BCH nor BSV!) Bitcoin should finally start mooning on fear (as gold does) as the monetary reset looms.
The altcoins (all that FOMO, speculative dogesh8t, including the altcoin Bitcoin Core which was created by the corruption on the 2017 N.Y. Agreement soft fork…soft forks are deceptions and must eventually hard fork/f-ck) will have declined for the first time to well below their prior cycle ATHs indicating the end of their half-decade bull market (all except LTC launched ~2017). The proof-of-work altcoins will be destroyed by repeated, difficulty-bomb non-readjustment attacks. The proof-of-stake sh8tcoins will be attacked by government regulation as they are folded into the orbit of the central bank digital currencies’ (CBDCs’) dominion — as TPTB try to enslave us in totalitarian, negative interest rates aka capital controls by trying to end the free market with their futile, diabolical “Great Reset” collateral damage wrecking ball.
ETH may form a bearish double-top and/or decade long, bearish, H&S pattern projecting to $0. All cryptocurrencies other than legacy Bitcoin to $0 whilst Satoshi’s Phoenix rises to $1 million.
ETH:BTC appears to be dying. It peaked in 2017 and now is dead cat rallying in a bearish rising channel or wedge.
Ditto ADA:BTC:
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wX4_Ibxe...
11:24 {juncture in the above linked video} K-dub you should read 150 IQ Curtis Yarvin’s recent Graymirror blog entitled Is Crypto Still Fungible? Unfortunately Ethereum’s account balances design (instead of UTXO) creates this problem where even if you do not spend an input, all of your balance is polluted by someone unsolicited sending an input to your account.
11:24 {juncture in the above linked video} K-dub you should read 150 IQ Curtis Yarvin’s recent Graymirror blog entitled Is Crypto Still Fungible? Unfortunately Ethereum’s account balances design (instead of UTXO) creates this problem where even if you do not spend an input, all of your balance is polluted by someone unsolicited sending an input to your account.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=javNu2qX...
> “@S. Moore so everything but Bitcoin will get rekt”
@Viserion even BTC wil be REKT because it was soft forked in 2017. Only the immutable legacy Bitcoin protocol will survive and it currently has no ticker. You obtain it by spending BTC (from yourself) to (yourself to your) address that begins with 1, not 3 nor bc1. I have published all the game theory and technical details on why this is so but YT will not allow me to link it here nor mention how to find.
> “@S. Moore so everything but Bitcoin will get rekt”
@Viserion even BTC wil be REKT because it was soft forked in 2017. Only the immutable legacy Bitcoin protocol will survive and it currently has no ticker. You obtain it by spending BTC (from yourself) to (yourself to your) address that begins with 1, not 3 nor bc1. I have published all the game theory and technical details on why this is so but YT will not allow me to link it here nor mention how to find.
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=javNu2qX...
> “Pow ain't the answer either”
@BF Flyer well proof-of-work is the solution for a global reserve currency that the powers-that-be behind the curtain will ultimately enslave the world with as per the Biblical Seven Hills where all the wealth will be concentrated in the end time (Jerusalem or Rome?). Proof-of-stake is doomed so we are all doomed.
> “Pow ain't the answer either”
@BF Flyer well proof-of-work is the solution for a global reserve currency that the powers-that-be behind the curtain will ultimately enslave the world with as per the Biblical Seven Hills where all the wealth will be concentrated in the end time (Jerusalem or Rome?). Proof-of-stake is doomed so we are all doomed.
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...-toward-20-3k-20-4k/
> > > @shelby3 beautiful {VIX} chart: the death spiral
> >
> > @otwa2113 (@JerryManders), a mathematician such as yourself can visualize a spiral in a 2D chart.
>
> My life is a spiral lol
Relatable. The least stimulating tasks seem to be essential for running daily life.
> > > @shelby3 beautiful {VIX} chart: the death spiral
> >
> > @otwa2113 (@JerryManders), a mathematician such as yourself can visualize a spiral in a 2D chart.
>
> My life is a spiral lol
Relatable. The least stimulating tasks seem to be essential for running daily life.
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...-following-earnings/
@Steadyeddy69, over 95% of Nasdaq stocks were above their 50 daily MA — a startling shift in that measure of market bullishness from virtually none being above that breadth metric at the June bottom. Yet only 45% of market participants were positioned bullish on this rally (and probably even less now on the “last chance to board the train” pullback underway). Although savings rates are declining, that’s a lagging indicator because accumulated cash is very high and has to go somewhere. The market is overpriced w.r.t. to sour forward Q3 estimates (to be reported in Q4) but that along with expectations of labor market recession are more lagging indicators. Whereas price (as distinct from monetary) inflation expectations are a 3 to 4 months leading indicator and they turned down in May until just recently starting to turn back up. This market wants to rally back to ATHs because the FUD selloff was driven by imminent recession fears stoked by inflation continuing to rise, yet a GDP recession is not a labor recession which come on a lag some months from now. Meantime the threat of future labor recession is causing commodities to be priced downwards due to expected demand destruction, notwithstanding the trend in future inflation expectations as a leading indicator trending back up especially after Biden announced a massive ‘stealth’ stimulus via student loan abatements and abeyance (which might just end up FOMOing into meme stocks like AMC). And the thing with FOMO (and the memory effect of those who lost over the past decades by not buying the dips) is that once it starts to rip then everyone eventually piles in whether they are early or buy the top. Of course everything will be overpriced and irrationally priced w.r.t. to earnings because that’s a feature of a the Mises crack-up boom that has been engineered by the Fed and Bolsheviks at the helm. Nvidia will be considered “cheap” as one of the few lone assets (and the only major semiconductor focused with massive growth potential in the cloud) “underpriced” in this insanity paradigm. The market will invent narratives to justify pumping it. When price inflation paused in Q1 the markets attempted to rally but crashed anew when it was clear CPI was still increasing. If CPI has indeed peaked until winter then June was the bottom of this expected risk-on rally to ATHs over next few months. Remember that we had the same situation in 2019 where all the Fed had to do was jawbone slightly more dovishly and the markets came off the December 2018 low to new ATHs. And there’s a lot more cash floating around now after the massive corona dump stimulus. Timing of leading and lagging indicators along with the level of insanity of a crack-up boom must be factored into the analysis.
@Steadyeddy69, over 95% of Nasdaq stocks were above their 50 daily MA — a startling shift in that measure of market bullishness from virtually none being above that breadth metric at the June bottom. Yet only 45% of market participants were positioned bullish on this rally (and probably even less now on the “last chance to board the train” pullback underway). Although savings rates are declining, that’s a lagging indicator because accumulated cash is very high and has to go somewhere. The market is overpriced w.r.t. to sour forward Q3 estimates (to be reported in Q4) but that along with expectations of labor market recession are more lagging indicators. Whereas price (as distinct from monetary) inflation expectations are a 3 to 4 months leading indicator and they turned down in May until just recently starting to turn back up. This market wants to rally back to ATHs because the FUD selloff was driven by imminent recession fears stoked by inflation continuing to rise, yet a GDP recession is not a labor recession which come on a lag some months from now. Meantime the threat of future labor recession is causing commodities to be priced downwards due to expected demand destruction, notwithstanding the trend in future inflation expectations as a leading indicator trending back up especially after Biden announced a massive ‘stealth’ stimulus via student loan abatements and abeyance (which might just end up FOMOing into meme stocks like AMC). And the thing with FOMO (and the memory effect of those who lost over the past decades by not buying the dips) is that once it starts to rip then everyone eventually piles in whether they are early or buy the top. Of course everything will be overpriced and irrationally priced w.r.t. to earnings because that’s a feature of a the Mises crack-up boom that has been engineered by the Fed and Bolsheviks at the helm. Nvidia will be considered “cheap” as one of the few lone assets (and the only major semiconductor focused with massive growth potential in the cloud) “underpriced” in this insanity paradigm. The market will invent narratives to justify pumping it. When price inflation paused in Q1 the markets attempted to rally but crashed anew when it was clear CPI was still increasing. If CPI has indeed peaked until winter then June was the bottom of this expected risk-on rally to ATHs over next few months. Remember that we had the same situation in 2019 where all the Fed had to do was jawbone slightly more dovishly and the markets came off the December 2018 low to new ATHs. And there’s a lot more cash floating around now after the massive corona dump stimulus. Timing of leading and lagging indicators along with the level of insanity of a crack-up boom must be factored into the analysis.
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/...-following-earnings/
Additionally the same thesis applies in spades to the crypto sector. Bitcoin priced still near its June low is going to look mighty attractive (especially it has no earnings thus can’t be “overpriced” w.r.t. to earnings) when 95+% of the Nasdaq is already above their individual 50 DMAs. Bitcoin lagged coming off the December 2018 lows then suddenly catapulted after the other risk-on markets had reestablished a bullish footing. I posit the fractal of 2019 is essentially repeating. The Austrian economics crack-up boom is accelerating. The sh8t is going to get even more bizarre and diabolical than the cerveza sickness pLandemic come Q4 2023! Can you say WW3? Can you say 666-like central bank digital currencies, capito{a}l controls, forced rationing and no more private bank accounts? My research is deep.
Additionally the same thesis applies in spades to the crypto sector. Bitcoin priced still near its June low is going to look mighty attractive (especially it has no earnings thus can’t be “overpriced” w.r.t. to earnings) when 95+% of the Nasdaq is already above their individual 50 DMAs. Bitcoin lagged coming off the December 2018 lows then suddenly catapulted after the other risk-on markets had reestablished a bullish footing. I posit the fractal of 2019 is essentially repeating. The Austrian economics crack-up boom is accelerating. The sh8t is going to get even more bizarre and diabolical than the cerveza sickness pLandemic come Q4 2023! Can you say WW3? Can you say 666-like central bank digital currencies, capito{a}l controls, forced rationing and no more private bank accounts? My research is deep.
Comment:
How did the surreptitious Bitcoin creator know that Western governments would self-immolate and so brazenly abuse their power that the world would embrace Bitcoin as an unbiased, trustless, permissionless reserve currency to discipline/spank the nation-states as John Nash had proposed in his Ideal Money manifesto (Jstor)? Perhaps Rothschild’s Economist Magazine 1988 Phoenix cover story, the double-spaces after periods 1999 usergroup description of Bitcoin, the 2008 pre-release/Jan 2009 launch and the 2018 20k peak mainstream awareness? That ten year cycle implies incoming 2028 monetary reset?
Profoundly, Bruce Fenton doesn’t seem to realize that secularism doesn’t really exist (c.f. the religion of the radical left and their lamestream media propaganda engine) and government can’t exist without Weberian power to enslave constituents in fiat money. Creative destruction chaos incoming!
US Senate Candidate Bruce Fenton: Get the government out of the money business. We need to separate money and state just like we separated church and state.
Profoundly, Bruce Fenton doesn’t seem to realize that secularism doesn’t really exist (c.f. the religion of the radical left and their lamestream media propaganda engine) and government can’t exist without Weberian power to enslave constituents in fiat money. Creative destruction chaos incoming!
US Senate Candidate Bruce Fenton: Get the government out of the money business. We need to separate money and state just like we separated church and state.
Comment:
Read backwards from the end of the updates on my published idea, "Official" (impostor) Bitcoin Core to Drop to $0 in 2023? You will understand nothing holistically until you understand that (ostensibly some very high IQ contractors of) the $trillionaire, surreptitious, shadow, uppermost elite (e.g. Rothschild, Vanderbilts, etc) created Bitcoin and they are implementing John Nash’s Ideal Money (Jstor) (which is Bitcoin) as a NWO. Bitcoin is Rothschild’s (et al shadow elite) Economist Magazine 1988 cover story Phoenix. That is why we inexplicably see Mark Suckerberg revealing that the FBI was manipulating the 2020 election, with the only plausible explanation being a more powerful entity is pulling strings behind the curtain so as to discredit the nation-states and create discord while also pushing the transition to an interim multi-polar fiat monetary and economic trade system so that only legacy Bitcoin can be trusted as the new world reserve currency. The sacrificial elite pawns (e.g. Bill Gates, Klaus Schwab) are being manipulated for this purpose. If the FBI is reading this then they should try to understand that they are a collateral damage target for destruction also, not at my hands of course, but as a necessary sacrifice under the plans of the shadow elite on the way to total world enslavement in a 666 Bitcoin “Ideal Money”.
Legacy protocol Bitcoin (not the current “official Bitcoin” impostor which will be destroyed, because the 2017 New York Agreement soft-fork broke the Nash equilibrium by creating a 13+ million BTC booty) will be a 666 system, because: a) the nation-states will first fight it by restricting our access (e.g. via aggressive AML, KYC, taxation, capital controls against Russia, etc) along with the legacy protocol limited to 1 MiB block size thus driving transaction fees too high for most of us to transact on; and b) although proof-of-work mining is permissionless, fungible resources are always power-law distributed in nature thus meaning eventually the Biblical prophesy that all the wealth (and the surreptitious control of more than 50% of the Bitcoin mining enabling censorship of transactions by the surreptitious “God” which is really just the shadow elite) becomes concentrated on the Seven Hills (of Rome or Jerusalem depending on your theological interpretation). Also such majority control of mining also enables complete deanonymization of Monero; yet that’s irrelevant anyway because only one proof-of-work block chain (i.e. Satoshi legacy, immutable protocol Bitcoin) can survive anyway due to all other proof-of-work altcoins inherently carrying an INSOLUBLE (i.e. there is no possible fix) flaw of repeated non-readjustment after mining difficulty bomb attacks. The people of the world are receiving this outcome because human nature can’t avoid choosing a King on Earth (e.g. a government) as the Lord warned and admonished not to do in 1 Samuel 8; and note that Romans was corruptly translated to English from the original Greek — Paul was critical of government.
P.S. The technologically astute may be interested in my epiphany, Why did Satoshi employ double-hashing? And most people don’t realize that Nash’s discoveries were a profound unification of economics and social science.
Legacy protocol Bitcoin (not the current “official Bitcoin” impostor which will be destroyed, because the 2017 New York Agreement soft-fork broke the Nash equilibrium by creating a 13+ million BTC booty) will be a 666 system, because: a) the nation-states will first fight it by restricting our access (e.g. via aggressive AML, KYC, taxation, capital controls against Russia, etc) along with the legacy protocol limited to 1 MiB block size thus driving transaction fees too high for most of us to transact on; and b) although proof-of-work mining is permissionless, fungible resources are always power-law distributed in nature thus meaning eventually the Biblical prophesy that all the wealth (and the surreptitious control of more than 50% of the Bitcoin mining enabling censorship of transactions by the surreptitious “God” which is really just the shadow elite) becomes concentrated on the Seven Hills (of Rome or Jerusalem depending on your theological interpretation). Also such majority control of mining also enables complete deanonymization of Monero; yet that’s irrelevant anyway because only one proof-of-work block chain (i.e. Satoshi legacy, immutable protocol Bitcoin) can survive anyway due to all other proof-of-work altcoins inherently carrying an INSOLUBLE (i.e. there is no possible fix) flaw of repeated non-readjustment after mining difficulty bomb attacks. The people of the world are receiving this outcome because human nature can’t avoid choosing a King on Earth (e.g. a government) as the Lord warned and admonished not to do in 1 Samuel 8; and note that Romans was corruptly translated to English from the original Greek — Paul was critical of government.
P.S. The technologically astute may be interested in my epiphany, Why did Satoshi employ double-hashing? And most people don’t realize that Nash’s discoveries were a profound unification of economics and social science.
Comment:
Ron Walker incorrectly claims that the bullish structure is broken by wave 4 retracing to top of wave 1 and 2:
youtu.be/TgRa7BMey04?t=138
(Stock Market CRASH: S&P 500 Bullish Elliott Wave Count Now Invalidated (SPX QQQ IWM Investing))
Seems nearly nobody understands the terminal impulse EW condition:
youtu.be/to9QBEGNbSA?t=192
(Chapter 9 - Terminal Impulse - Part 1)
The wave 5 can move very fast up because everyone misinterprets and goes short causing a rapid short squeeze.
c.f. Bitcoin's Ominous "terminal impulse"
(scroll down)
Note wave 5 can fail though.
youtu.be/TgRa7BMey04?t=138
(Stock Market CRASH: S&P 500 Bullish Elliott Wave Count Now Invalidated (SPX QQQ IWM Investing))
Seems nearly nobody understands the terminal impulse EW condition:
youtu.be/to9QBEGNbSA?t=192
(Chapter 9 - Terminal Impulse - Part 1)
The wave 5 can move very fast up because everyone misinterprets and goes short causing a rapid short squeeze.
c.f. Bitcoin's Ominous "terminal impulse"
(scroll down)
Note wave 5 can fail though.
