SPX is at the overhead resistance from June, the economic environment isn't particularly bullish so most see the risk here and avoid recommending buying - however, there is a lot of accumulation over the past few months and what I see is the overhead from June was part of this accumulation, the drop to this years low was the "spring" in wyckoff language. We are currently in the markup phase.
The methods I use and visualize to some extent in the chart are my own. I use confluence with Gann and Elliot to confirm highest liklihoods and here are my expectations:
- near term risk to around 4060, that will get bought up quick (astrological signs point to Aug 11 being the end of this local chop, explosive upside will continue until Aug 21 when the meteor showers conclude.. if you think this is crazy it is, but its how this works)
- minimum target = 4282 (as early as 8/12 but more likely next week around Aug 16)
- On condition 4282 is ran through with explosiveness and doesn't show resistance, the next target is 4331. I'm not banking on continuation past that, will need to form a corrective wave and carve out a higher low before beginning a larger wave 3 toward ATH. The corrective wave will take it to the range of 3882-3934, would unfold late august early sep.... However, there is the possibility of a squeeze (much larger than any seen in past few years) if it gets over 4331 in next couple weeks.
- the squeeze doesn't have to happen obviously but decent chance looking at the short data some whales could be in trouble, if it happens here are the levels to watch:
4551
4640
4768
4827
Alternatively, if downside momentum catches here and it drops below 3945 then I would look out below to 3480-3540
Either way, big moves ahead so if you're in cash you'll miss the party.
The methods I use and visualize to some extent in the chart are my own. I use confluence with Gann and Elliot to confirm highest liklihoods and here are my expectations:
- near term risk to around 4060, that will get bought up quick (astrological signs point to Aug 11 being the end of this local chop, explosive upside will continue until Aug 21 when the meteor showers conclude.. if you think this is crazy it is, but its how this works)
- minimum target = 4282 (as early as 8/12 but more likely next week around Aug 16)
- On condition 4282 is ran through with explosiveness and doesn't show resistance, the next target is 4331. I'm not banking on continuation past that, will need to form a corrective wave and carve out a higher low before beginning a larger wave 3 toward ATH. The corrective wave will take it to the range of 3882-3934, would unfold late august early sep.... However, there is the possibility of a squeeze (much larger than any seen in past few years) if it gets over 4331 in next couple weeks.
- the squeeze doesn't have to happen obviously but decent chance looking at the short data some whales could be in trouble, if it happens here are the levels to watch:
4551
4640
4768
4827
Alternatively, if downside momentum catches here and it drops below 3945 then I would look out below to 3480-3540
Either way, big moves ahead so if you're in cash you'll miss the party.
Comment:
Watch out for rapid downside starting at 2:30 8/11, risk to 4060-4090 over next couple trading days
- yesterday was moon and Saturn
- today is full moon
- Aug 17 is conjunction of Sun, Mars, and Venus and Sun Leo transit
(earlier in the month was a rare triple alignment between Mars, Uranus, and the North Node)
These type of events were discovered by Gann in the early 1900s to have a dominating effect on the market by drastically affecting investor sentiment. This is controversial, I'm sure, but I've found at times when market does seemingly absurd things against general expectation the planetary movements are the best explaination.
If you are unfamiliar with Gann he was a free mason and one of the greatest traders of all time who started his career by turning (translated to equivilent for USD in 2022 vs 1908) $15k into $1.2M in a very short time frame. Don't fight the stars