Bitcoin is in a very dangerous (bearish) situation by each quantitative metric in financial analysis -technical, fundamental and manipulative-. The mid-trend is clearly bearish, with a ~33 RSI in the weekly chart, and a ~46 RSI in the monthly chart, as well as bearish moving averages (210, 70, 14), and the price under them. The price is experiencing some corrections and volatility around the $30K-$28K support, and even if its still reliable a pull-back an a restart of a 2 type trend (bullish) the odds are more bearish (65% vs 35% - would I say without demos). Based on the TTW analysis, the most probable scenario is that BTC will be having movements between $28K and $35k for some weeks or months, making a lot of retail traders to enter in the wrong break points and institutionals to wait for the price to go to support levels around $20K at the end of the year. This is the most probable scenario, but each active quant fund manager should have its own muti-strategy bots for each occasion, including the beginning of a new type 2 trend. I am using financial engineering to short BTC futures in different key points, and I am bullish in the long-run, but all the analysis indicates that in the next months the most probable scenario is a decrease in demand of this security token, so it would be more convenient to implement an active, not a passive investment approach.
Comment:
Bitcoin has crossed down its support at $30K-$28K, and its on its way to the $20K level.
