Bitcoin (BTC) MA Death/Golden Cross Analysis (Part 9) --> +7%

CEXIO:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Welcome to my 9th segment in my golden/death cross analysis series! My strategy is very simple: wait for longer-term trends to reveal themselves when the price crosses the moving average. We're capturing not only the positive movements but capitalizing on the negative movements as well!

In our last short segment, we sold and bought back in at the same level! This doesn't happen often, but following the strategy will lead to profit.

Segment 4
  • 04/01/2018 - BUY $7,150
  • 04/04/2018 - SELL $6,900
  • 04/08/2018 - BUY $6,900
  • Beginning ($): $11,100
  • Ending ($): $10,700
  • Beginning ( BTC ): 1.55
  • Ending ( BTC ): 1.55

Segment 5
  • 04/08/2018 - BUY $6,900
  • Beginning ($): $10,700
  • Ending ($): TBD
  • Beginning ( BTC ): 1.55
  • Ending ( BTC ): TBD

Let's hope we see some upward movement here and let's capture some gain against USD! Follow along by clicking like and following me to get updates on this strategy!
Trade closed: stop reached: And as soon as it began, it's ended. A huge drop ended this long run and began our short segment.
Comment: I apologize for the long time between updates. It looks like the short on this trade might be ended here. I may just skip that short trade if we do break through. This strategy is having an issue with what is basically a flat MA being cross and essentially trading even or at a loss every time it crosses.
Comment: We are within $100 and accumulating losses here. I'll be using $7k as a buy-in to avoid the price crossing over the MA a bunch of times and limiting trades. If it looks healthy on the RSI and on the volume on CEX, I'll be buying there. If we start getting closer to 0% USD gain, I will consider putting this on pause until we see the market moving in either direction in a significant way.

Trade active: I'll be tracking the bull breakout here, because we broke the MA with a lot of strength over a very short period of time! I believe that this marks the beginning of a large reversal in price. We have huge separation between the MA and the current price and will see this long position continue for a couple of days.

Hold on tight, we have liftoff!
Comment: Buyin at $7k
Comment: Since our buy-in at $7k, we've remained pretty flat around $8k. I'm hoping for another strong push to help us break the $8.2k barrier that we've been struggling with here. While BTC has been going flat, our MA has passed $7.5k, meaning we've locked in $500 worth of profit so far! More to come in the next couple of days when the MA and BTC battle it out... Let's see which comes out on top.
Comment: And again, we're stuck at $8.2k! We saw a nice bump in price a couple hours ago, but we're still going pretty flat. The MA is right around $7.9k, meaning we've locked in $900/BTC of profit! Stay tuned because we're $300 from our MA, we may need to take action soon!
Comment: Stay alert for the next couple of hours! We're close to crossing the MA, but we have been oversold on the RSI for the past couple of hours.
Comment: We're still long here! Using $7900 as a hard stop loss. We've been going flat here for a couple of days and I am waiting to move in either direction.
Comment: Up, up, and away! BTC took off like a rocket today and we will be seeing a steep climb in the MA even if the price levels out. I'm also seeing weird activity in the volumes on CEX. We've got a huge sell wall at $9,500 of ~840 BTC and nowhere near that volume on the buy side. Expect BTC to take a bit of a dip because BTC ran up about $1000 in a couple of days! Stay tuned, we'll be locking in some serious profit.
Comment: And again, we've narrowly missed the MA and have continued moving up! We'll be trading on that intersection!
Comment: What a run we had there! We finally hit a sell, I'll leave it at $9k to account for fees and such. I'm posting the short tracking here, but we've locked in a good amount of profit here!
Trade closed: stop reached:
We need more update, im also trying to setup my trading alogritm for the long run. Started with sma crossover but these consolidation phase cause big loss. How you deal with times likes this or have any indicator for not trading for not trending periods?
dsgorthy yuksel92
@yuksel92, That is the downside of this strategy and I apologize for the delay in updates. The biggest weakness of this strategy is a flat market, and there isn't a great indicator that I've been using to track that. One way to combat it is increase the MA range, this one is pretty short. Other than that, set a boundary of ~$500 above the MA to confirm a breakout. You would be giving up some gain but would limit the trading in the meantime
It got me on that last drop :(
dsgorthy Shaz87
@Shaz87, It did really come out of nowhere, I didn't see any real cause for it either, which is frustrating!
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