filbfilb

BTC Decision Time (Again)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Here I present the case for the bulls and the bears using 12 hour candles.
We are currently range bound in a hold-your-position or no trade zone. (Yellow Triangle)
This will play out by the end of the weekend as it represents the end of the range.
Watch for Fake outs.

Bulls
- Reasonable support established in the $7600-8000 range off the back of a c.60% up move from the $6k lows
- Interest appears to be returning and the FUD articles are fading
- Arguable Inverted Head and Shoulders bottom has formed
- Reasonable prior week candle close (good but could have been better)
- Measure move Targets for this would be $11k + where additional resistance is found but this requires a break of the horizontal and - very strong diag resistance
- Dumps have been met by large market buy orders and buy support below is strong
- RSI is trending up

Bears
- Very strong levels of Horizontal resistance at $9-10k alongside multi week horizontal resistance.
- A lot of long positions were opened to support the dip to 6k with profit taking on the short positions; price has recovered off the back of this but has not been met by the bears, meaning that they have reserves in the tank to re enter, there is no short squeeze fuel and the bulls buying interest is fading.
- Generally the bid support on the exchanges is c.20% lower than where I would like it to be on an absolute level
- Fall out from the wider stock market would likely see investors pull out into less risky asset classes. It would be difficult to defend a position in crypto.
- Mac-d Looks toppy

Hope this was useful.
best
filbfilb
Comment: Showing more of the range here - is interesting that the H&S target coincides with the second diagonal resistance.

Comment: So we broke the diagonal support which is very encouraging.

We now need to see if the diag breakout can be sustained as any upward movement is met by immediate resistance.

I am still holding a small long position which i will sell into the horizontal resistance.
any breaks to the upside beyond 9500 i will re enter the market. any dtop to support and i will re enter awell.

All the other major coins effectively have similar charts and im playing them all the same.

Remaining cautiously bullish till resistance but suspect we may drif sideways throguh Friday and have an attempt at 10k on the wekeend.

Comment: so we broke out! intermediate target is throguh the cloud to 10250.

Comment: running out of steam

Comment: 10250
Comment: Can we rally this weekend to the H&S target or will we retest prior resistance?
Let me know your thoughts.
Comment: weekly looks good.. morning star would be be an epic end to the week

Nobody told you but you were spot on
+1 Reply
re-test then rally imo
+1 Reply
Weekends are mostly for ranging lately?
+1 Reply
Thank you for the updates. I think must be completed the H.S target take advantage of the good news
+1 Reply
@xfun, im leaning that way too.
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A rally is much more likely at this point. Bitcoin has a habit of rallying through the weekend, especially from Friday to Sunday morning. Go through chart history to see for yourself. Goodluck bro!
Reply
Commodore3 filbfilb
@filbfilb, Exactly!
+1 Reply
filbfilb Commodore3
@Commodore3, Yes agree, bid support still a bit thin. Good luck to you too.
Reply
Commodore3 filbfilb
@filbfilb, Yeah. Tight stops recommended at this point :)
+1 Reply
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