After a boring weekend full of bots with a very low real volume the price continue inside of a symmetrical triangle which regardless the SEC decision, looks quite ugly.
The announcement whether they delay or denny the current ETF´s, have to be released in a period of 24-48 hours maximum, and the deadline for the price leaving the triangle is depending on that decision. In my opinion we won´t see an ETF approved until end of December or May-June next year. But if we are extremely lucky and the SEC comes with positive news, leaving the triangle with such power, could most probably anticipate the end of the bearish season, and the beginning of a new era for the crypto space.
However and despite the good news we can hear everyday about the adoption of Bitcoin and blockchains technologies, there is much more involve. First of all the technical prevails before the fundamental, and a symmetrical triangle in a bearish trend use to have a very bad end. Secondly, chances that the SEC comes with an open mind regarding the new licenses for the ETF´s just now, are small.
Being perms-bull like many others here helps the whales to liquidate longs, to have more followers here on Trading View and to give hope for holders. But hope is not a good indicator for this business, just a realistic technical analysis based on solid arguments can help us to understand what is going on behind the scenes, and what have the best chances of becoming real.
With all this being said, I´m seeing the bulls pushing the price up to around 6700, and a probably hard short back to the base of the triangle around 6330 with a high probability of breaking down the triangle looking the last yearly low at 5.8k, but that´s depend pretty much on the SEC decision.
My vision continue being close to the bears, however having some approves from the SEC and breaking out around $7500, will change my mind for sure.
The announcement whether they delay or denny the current ETF´s, have to be released in a period of 24-48 hours maximum, and the deadline for the price leaving the triangle is depending on that decision. In my opinion we won´t see an ETF approved until end of December or May-June next year. But if we are extremely lucky and the SEC comes with positive news, leaving the triangle with such power, could most probably anticipate the end of the bearish season, and the beginning of a new era for the crypto space.
However and despite the good news we can hear everyday about the adoption of Bitcoin and blockchains technologies, there is much more involve. First of all the technical prevails before the fundamental, and a symmetrical triangle in a bearish trend use to have a very bad end. Secondly, chances that the SEC comes with an open mind regarding the new licenses for the ETF´s just now, are small.
Being perms-bull like many others here helps the whales to liquidate longs, to have more followers here on Trading View and to give hope for holders. But hope is not a good indicator for this business, just a realistic technical analysis based on solid arguments can help us to understand what is going on behind the scenes, and what have the best chances of becoming real.
With all this being said, I´m seeing the bulls pushing the price up to around 6700, and a probably hard short back to the base of the triangle around 6330 with a high probability of breaking down the triangle looking the last yearly low at 5.8k, but that´s depend pretty much on the SEC decision.
My vision continue being close to the bears, however having some approves from the SEC and breaking out around $7500, will change my mind for sure.
Comment:
The SEC has delayed the decision till Dec 29th. This should break down the triangle very soon.
Comment:
Seems that we are starting the leg D of a bullish butterfly. If that´s the case, we may expect a drop to around 6200 followed by a big bounce up to 6500-6600.
Comment:
There you are, exactly as forecasted in my last update. Supports now are between 6100 and 6200. IT should hold and the chances to see 6500 soon again are high.
Comment:
The bulls won the yesterday battle deciding wether we could go to 5800 or to 6600 :) We are in our way to around 61.8 fibo, there is a big resistance at 6580, so looks that are around that level the price will get rejected to get sideways up and down for a few days, and then decide if this is finally breaking up or going back to attempt the 6k.
Comment:
So this is another forecast hit. As predicted, the price went to 61.8 completing the retrace of the bullish butterfly. Seems that we will be tomorrow around 6400-6500 during tomorrow Monday, I´ll update soon with more details.
Comment:
We just breakout!
