When we broke down the $6,000 level back in January we spent appx. 3 months in an accumulation phase in preparation of the break out back up to retest the $6,000 break down level. After this accumulation phase, we had a beautiful run up in the past couple of weeks once again putting Bitcoin as the kick of all markets and putting us in the #1 spot for investment in the first quarter of 2019.
There was a very strange spot price spread between Bitfinex and the other exchanges such as , Coinbase, Etc... It was $500.00 spread that in my opinion triggered this run-up creating a buying frenzy and arbitrage opportunity between exchanges. It seems this was orchestrated and pulled bitcoin out of a critical area which now makes that area very strong support.
Over Leveraged Bears
A self-fulfilling prophecy when a market is top heavy to one or another side the shorters were over-leveraging or hedging their positions forcing a move up that was a breeze as the shorts would close at every critical intersection buying up the market breaking out and pushing the market higher and higher. Until we broke $8,000 and had a 12,000 BTC short drop off and the market started going flat and forcing us to drop over 30% on to $6400 area..
Where Do We Go Now?
We are at another critical juncture now - Market has to make the decision of taking another leg up, Which in my opinion is less likely. Maybe only if we get some major news we can spike up once more. Something along the lines of a Being approved by the SEC in the next few days.
But I think the chances of that are very unlikely, you are supposed to buy the rumor and sell the news, So even if the SEC does approve the this will be a selling opportunity for people not a buying opportunity in my opion as the only people buying will be the retail investors. I will probably put appx. 10-15% chance that we actually resolve to the next target of $9,500 and the percentage will drop the higher we go from there.
Essentially we are looking for a pullback now A healthy correction into the $6,000 - $5,500 area will give us the time to accumulate and reach those levels, If we run up to $9-10-11-12K although possible its also a very big chance that we will drop all the way back down to the break out point of $4,000-5,000 as this growth is unsustainable and as history shows is not healthy.
So a healthy pull back is extremely important, and I would think we would find lots of buyers near the 200MA.
The Bear Scenario
The fact that a market that drops from 20,000 to $3,300 without having a massive capitulating event bugs me and makes me worry for the future of Bitcoin . I still think that $3,300 was not the bottom and that we should have landed between 1800-2400 with a capitulating candle that gives us no more than 15-30 minutes to buy the actual bottom.
Because this never happened it is still a possibility of this. And the fact that we ran up the way we did seems to be very manipulated and forced up, Yea it was a great run up but who's to say we can't crash all the way back down to $3,300 and do a double bottom? I think it's totally possible but I am not trading this... yet.. Once we are under the 200MA opening and closing candles under this level we are able to re-evaluate the strategy of this massive drop. As of now I am neutral to .
Don't forget its not a sprint , Don't try to take every trade and win all the money. Sometimes just waiting is great, Be patient and get paid dont get greedy.
Go whales :)