Bitcoin is beginning to make a habit of topping out between
21:00 and 01:00 and bottoming between 05:00 and 09:00 the
next day ( gmt ). Last night we were still running a long and
looking for 11906 on Bitfinex and 11867 on when
Bitcoin topped out very unexectedly 11780 at 22:20 - doing so
from no discernible level of resistance, right out of the blue.
This is so unlike the Bitcoin we know and trade. But it did it
anyway. Bitcoin was positive up to the point that it broke the
rising uppermost dynamic that had been supporting the rally
all day yesterday and stops and exits were running up under
this line which was lying at the 11651 support line at the time
of the break - and pretty much at excactly the same levels that
we went long again from. Not good. But could have been a lot
worse without using stops. Since then Bitcoin has fallen away
overnight to make a low at 04:15 and then a secondary higher
low at 05.30 at 10709 before rallying higher again.
Day traders are risking longs off the nearest 10857 support line
but if so use a tight stop at under 10800 for small loss if it
falls away from here further.
There is so much resistance now lying between here and the
11257 line on Bitfinex making it difficult to open up a long
swing trade from current levels.
It really has to move up above 11270 and hold for swings to
enter long again from here with stops below 11180 if
Returning to the downside: overnight Bitcoin has lost the
supporting dynamics which now lie above it and are stopping
any rally from gaining any real traction now. In very near
term Bitcoin is being held up a small dynamic rising under the
lows of the day - failure to hold this dynamic from here
will tip Bitcoin back into the hands of the bears in nearer
term and likely back to 10680 to begin with and then on a
break below here the picture will turn more bearsih again and
take Bitcoin down to 10296 if not 8925 in the process.
Usually we trade Bitcoin every day because the patterns are
clear enough for us to do so. But this is not one of those days
as yet except for day traders. Last night was a warning that
came out of the blue - so far we cannot really trust this rally
as we did others in the run up. Want to see it make a higher
intermediate low when the next decline begins before being
able to determine just how trustworthy this counter-rally
So boringly neutral right now unless day trading. Sometimes
patience is a virtue. Better safe than sorry. Today, so far at
least, is one of those days. We watch and wait for now.
More as the move develops...
22:39 gmt Update
Broken the upper dynamic and now dribbled back down the same line - making a double bottom/shorter term loss of downside momentum and now ready to rally some more - towards the upper parallel - if you follow long stick a stop under 10270 for smallish loss if wrong and looking for 10684 upside
Maybe the 2 hour counter rally will last longer after that double bottom at 10200 - but if so it has to break above 12415 - then it should move up towards 10684 and the upper parallel quite quickly. Worth following for day traders . Swing traders may prefer to wait to see if 10684 can be taken back and held by the bulls from here - if so later on it should be worth following to 10857 and then to 11180. (for fastest updates please see top left of sumastardon page for more details)
Bitcoin has at at least made a good/precise AbC and is now trying to build another shoulder from just above the line at 10443 after a low at 10320, some 24 points above the target at 10296. At best a rally back to the 10684 line and the upper parallel looks possible - but still not gung-ho about the rally having enough power to climb higher from there yet though - it has climb back above the upper parallel and start holding up at 10689 line to prove that the rally is going to be worth following higher still. We 've seen 500 points off the top so far - just under 5%. Not much really, but it is the biggest decline we've had since the rally began. It now has to break below that blue support line at 10296 to trigger the next short back to 8925.
Coinbase Chart Update
Bitstamp Chart Update