A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle (Concept #3)

In this chart, we explore a third Bitcoin Fib-Time Cycles concept (3/5). Refer to the original idea for concept #1 or concept #2 (linked below). In this concept, we position Bitcoin within an unconventional greater two-cycle phase, where the current cycle, Cycle 2, contributes to a Supercycle. It offers a twist that may appeal to the more contrarian, as its approach is taken from the emotional 'Herd' perspective. We use this to examine investor sentiment as it often conflicts with price action and can provide moments of opportunities or reasons to prepare and avert risk. Unlike other concepts, each signpost should be viewed as a rolling emotional peak within that period, until the next is triggered. This chart is not to be confused with other concepts, however, it can be confluent whilst still being conceptually distinct.

In this third concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally in 2020. From there it is then projected sequentially again up until 2030. The rationale behind this theory is based on the idea that originated from my first-ever TV-published chart (linked below). The shift in Bitcoin's cyclical nature poses a possibility that most of Bitcoin's growth from the early stages (2009 to 2013) is now in a repetitive sequence. This could indicate signs at greater levels playing into larger growth, which then forecasts a longer-term bear market.

Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the denoted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up closely correlates to the major pivots across Bitcoin's historical patterns.

Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish (short-term), cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months.

This chart merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points and how Bitcoin can often play on emotion and sentiment-driven participants. Overall it is worth observing even without this concept as understanding timing and environmental circumstances can be just as crucial as managing risk or setting price targets. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want.

Key Takeaways:
  • This chart is based on the 2-week timeframe as its projections are till mid-2030
  • With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib-time level (signpost) approximately triggers the next shift in the emotional phase. It is within a phase to anticipate the preceding signpost and observe the sentiment with the correct mindset.
  • Each fib range marks approximately 3808 days (10.43yrs)
  • Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level.
  • Once a cycle of phases is completed, we will assess as I believe this concept could prove to be a new set of cycles.
  • We are 2 weeks, and 3 days until we crossover the next signpost (The Fomo Sweats!) Crossing the next signpost does suggest that there is a 1-3 month period of rapid upside.
  • This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Jun 2030.

This is purely a concept and not certain and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:


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