#bitcoin bounce odds 3-1 or doubts about future dominance maybe

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Loads of predictions and time to try and make it simple maybe using roughly same principles as when bitcoin first hit $6000 low back in February 2018. I think if bitcoin goes lower then there may be serious doubts about its future dominance and likely institutional portfolio weighting going forward into 2019.
Comment: 3-1 on which Fib and 3-1 which MA. Then again 50/50 maybe whether it touches MA or not. Depends how much bitcoin needs a like for like drop as in 2014 to get the business lost in 2018 back.
Comment: Here's Feb 2018. All I did was get a fix of the first MA 245 same level as equivalent to 150 today on the weekly chart and then just did ratio's for the other two. Second MA 285 equivalent to 175 and MA 326 equivalent to 200
Comment: Not sure the MA construct makes sense but just there for illustrative purposes
Comment: My last post #bitcoin SANTA RALLY maybe coming Are you watching Santa (see in other post)


Lots of talk by seasoned traders and CTA's about a severe breakdown in technicals, and not a time to be a hero trying to "catch a falling knife" let alone trying to do it by trading on margin. Thought I'd include some stuff not broke yet. It doesn't mean previous record has to be broken for a recovery but then when something currently has less than zero value in real terms many people must now believe going forward you have to press game reset button.

Would be great to see MACD Histogram flip to green bar and ROC flip above zero
Comment: Potential set-up developing but not confirmed. Will have to wait till close of day. Notes on chart
Comment: Well we did not get the above signal - yellow box. Note that in my previous charts I was also using a custom MACD and not the default MACD in the chart above. My custom MACD is (Fast Length 6,Slow Length 12, Close, Signal Smoothing 31)
Comment: My take on CRYPTO WINTER 2018/19 using Stoch on Monthly chart (6 months to reach lowest point in Stoch). I'm not saying this is the way to calculate what was reported in the media recently, but looks cool.
Comment: Update to my previous post 21 November entitled "bitcoin when is it safe to buy?"
Previous charts show what happened previously after MACD and CCI flipped positive using BB% default settings plus Standard Deviation 3.5 to filter out sample
Comment: This is an update of my Santa Rally post. This black box signal idea is better than the yellow box signal above because it has demonstrated no whipsaw this year. Will it continue to work. Not Advice. DYOR. This black box signal could be critical because its looking like next leg could be down. Hopefully more signals will come in before then.
Comment: Here is a picture with consecutive fractal lows added in. Will have to see how day ends because at the moment looks like my charts could end up with a black and yellow box combo on same days. Has not done that in 2018. With black box there has been no whipsaw in 2018 whereas with the yellow box there has (OK if only happens once per signal). Given that these signals have made a fortune in 2018 how reliable will they be again (as a combo maybe).
Comment: Well here we are waiting for the moment of truth will it be straight out the box or whipsaw. There was to be no combo with a yellow box. Black box has 10 out 10 right so far this year. Wonder how far any breakout will go. Not Advice. D.Y.O.R.
Comment: Update to my posts see notes on chart broke out bearish. Will yesterday's low turn into a bullish fractal low - traders always got to be flex & have strategy for whipsaw even though black box signal been right 10 out10 in 2018 Not Advice DYOR
Comment: bitcoin ROC rate of change could be key indicator to halting this bear juggernaut. All notes on chart. Study sample based purely on consecutive Williams Fractal highs from Dec 2018. Not Advice. D.Y.O.R.
Comment: Next breakout signal will be Hi Lo range 10-11Dec has 100% success No whipsaw yet on this signal but could always happen 2018

Market expects leg down So far Bulls got the MACD up & now Signal Line See previous posts for construct Not Advice DYOR

Signals 2018 (Black Box) 29-30Jan 11-12Feb 22-23Mar 9-10Apr 3-4 Jun 20-21Jun 30Jun-1Jul 20-21Aug 21-22Sept 16-17Oct 2-3Dec (Yellow Box) 25-26Jan 10-11Feb 21-22Mar 5-6Apr 18-19Apr 28-29Apr 23-24Jun 27-28Jul 13-14Aug 22-23Sep 12-13Oct 20-21Oct 10-11Nov Next signal forming 10-11Dec
Comment: Comment: Update bitcoin breakout see notes on chart, and notes on chart at the top of this thread
Comment: #bitcoin update broke out box. Thought to publish visual of all box signals 2018 referred in my previous posts with construct details. With orange box breakout has to be close Yellow allowed one whipsaw per signal Black none seen yet. Not Advice DYOR