Haejin
Short

For Bitcoin, a Breakout w/o Volume is a Fakeout

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The Fractal #1 and Fractal #2 are quite uncanny! What is missing to really convince me that the recent $6.4k was the bottom is a long, red and tall capitulation volume bar!! Look at how the capitulation volume bar was so handsome during Dec. 2018!!
A breakout without volume is almost always a fakeout of some sort. I'll repeat: A breakout without volume is almost some sort of a fakeout. Consider also the series of hidden bearish divergences on the RSI with lower highs on price but higher highs on RSI . This usually means that price will continue generating lower highs.

Observe also the downward channel of fractal #1 and that of Fractal #2. See how uncanny the Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern repeated almost exactly in fractal #2 and the upward bearish wedge is nearly identical. I captured the capitulation price action bars of Fractal #1 and overlaid onto Fractal #2...hmm, very interesting.
Four months to the halving is a LONG TIME!! Can we get a lower low like $5.8k or $4.2k before the halving....YES!!

The youtube and twitter crypospheres are foaming at the mouth bullish .....not a bear to be seen! Each youtube talking head is trying to outdo the prior BTC price projection...I beleive I've thus seen $350,000 target as being the highest for 2020. When sentiment leans too far to one side; I'd rather be lonely and alone on the other side.

So, I believe the bottom is probably NOT YET placed...not until I get to see a stunning red volume bar that stands tall above most other bars. Until then, this has strong potential of a fakeout and almost all have be enchanted by the pump, pump, pump into the halving chant. Afterall, the Stock to Flow is more infallible than the "Two Popes"! LOL!
I'd rather be cautious. To me, caution is cash and so have been selling into this rally that smells foul like a bull trap.

However, IF price can explode above teh 200 moving average and rise above the $10,370 and STAY there...then, I'll become a bull and await a correction to re-enter. Remember, BTC spends >85% of time correcting so if you feel you missed a run...never fear; a deep correction is always nearby; even in a bull market.

Message: BE CAUTIOUS!!

Comments

Nostradamus~~ Interesting analysis. But it seems premature.
+2 Reply
@I_I why?
+1 Reply
I_I TWIMARKETCAP
@TWIMARKETCAP, Wave and Patterns respond to the present situation, not to foretell the distant future.
+2 Reply
@I_I, Right. But future is built by sentiments. and sentiments grow out of the past. so if the past has teh same picture, future will probably also follow.
+1 Reply
@I_I, looks like he nailed the TA
+1 Reply
I_I TWIMARKETCAP
@TWIMARKETCAP, Haejin👍 KingWangJJang
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@I_I, good!!
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@Haejin, good job, nailed the TA so far
+1 Reply
Best fu**ing educating TA i've ever seen in this website!
Thanks for your effort and thanks for sharing your knowledge!
Tons of information and experience in this article for awared minds.
+1 Reply
@zlatograd, I second. This is AMAZING!!!
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