Bitcoin Daily Update (day 254)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.


Previous analysis / position: “That puts the weekly chart back into a fully bearish posture.” / Short BTC from $6,354 | Short USDT:USD from 0.968 with order set at 0.97 to cover.
Patterns: Bottom of Symmetrical Triangle is currently being tested
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,300 | R: $6,327
BTCUSDSHORTS: Daily just closed a hammer, ready to start rallying any time now.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0484% | Spike in funding rates + btcusdshorts’ at support is a strong indication that the selling pressure will pick up soon
Short term trend (3 day MA): Close back below is very important for bears.
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Starting to posture for a death cross. Watch for 8 to cross 34 as final confirmation / entry
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Fully bearish
Overall trend: Bearish
Volume: Starting to percolate on shorter TF’s
FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.382 = $6,559 | 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405 | 0.786 = $6,280
Candlestick analysis: Bearish close today with long wicks. Watch for price to violate bottom wick at $6,300
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily and weekly are fully bearish. However there is a c clamp in the weekly and that is probably the most bullish indicator I can find
TD’ Sequential: Daily 6 makes me wonder if we are going to get one last small bounce (after a 8 or 9) before finally breaking of this range.
Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789.
Price action: 24h: -1.02% | 2w: +0.31% | 1m: +3.04%
Bollinger Bands: Bottom band is at $6,243. If that gets retested and doesn’t provide an immediate bounce then we are likely to close below the symmetrical triangle
Trendline: Testing bottom of symmetrical triangle at $6,289
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Took out down fractal at $6,316 | Next one is $6,200
RSI: Creating lower lows
Stochastic: Daily failed to recross bullish

Summary: Above I said to watch for price to violate bottom of today’s candle at $6,300 and that happened while I was typing. Now the symmetrical triangle is in serious danger of breaking down. If that happens then the measured move is $5,600.

The only indicator that looks bullish to me is the C-Clamp on the Weekly Ichimoku Cloud. I am all but disregarding that due to the overwhelming confluence in my other favorite indicators.

If you are not in a position then I would wait for a breakdown of the symmetrical triangle to provide final confirmation for entry. The conservative way to do it would be to wait for a daily candle to close below the trendline. The more aggressive approach would be to set a stop limit order below the candle on November 11th.