Hey!
Bitcoin is still on the down-channel. Several attempts to break below has failed and we can assume that this channel bottom trendline is pretty heavy to beat but if it breaks then...holy cow! :)
Today's bounce came from the first fractal point on the 1H chart, from overall strong support area, and from blue line trendline crossing area.
This blue line is the continuation pattern Falling Wedge (blue trendlines) bottom trendline. So, we have a pattern inside the pattern. We have a down channel which could be also a bull flag if we see a breakout but to be a solid Flag it has to be a bit shorter currently it is just a too big/long that we can call it a sloppy Bull Flag and inside of that is the next continuation pattern called Falling Wedge.
I marked the areas above the Falling Wedge upper trendline with numbers, from those areas we get some bullish confirmations if the candle (at least 1H better if 4H) gets a close inside one of the areas. Let's start from bullish scenario because it's just more interesting!
Area 1 bullish confirmation:
1. Break above the continuation pattern Falling Wedge. We have still the short-term bull run from 27.-29. Nov. and the price is still on the HL (higher low) area, from there the continuation pattern starts to work upwards.
Area 2 bullish confirmations:
1. Break above the Falling Wedge
2. Break above the red line - strong resistance area. It has worked as a strong support and as a strong resistance. So, we can put this into the confirmations because of the area importance.
Like You see the arrow will guide us to the round number and the down channel crossing area. The round number and the channel upper trendline should work together as a strong resistance and probably we could see a little throwback from there to retest the red line again if the scenario will play out like this then the redline bounce will guide us into the area nr. 3.
Area 3 bullish confirmations:
1. Break above the Falling Wedge
2. Break above the strong resistance - red line at $3,875
3. Break above the down-channel!! This will be the biggest bullish confirmation if we look at this from the short-term perspective. We have been in this channel just a little bit over a week and to make an upwards breakout from the channel it should be a pretty big statement from bulls (short-term again) and from there we could see another bullish leg upwards.
Area 4 bullish confirmations:
1. Break above the Falling Wedge
2. Break above the strong resistance
3. Break above the channel!!
4. And the final short-term confirmations come after the break above the round number $4,000. It has worked lately as a strong resistance and a candle close above $4k will be another bullish confirmation which guides us to the major target area at $4,170. There are the well-know grossing area and the well-known trendline since 30. March 2018. Those two makes a crossing area and it should react as a pretty strong resistance!
Bearish scenario:
- In December the price has made lower lows and lower highs.
- We are still on the down channel!
- We don't have buyers consistency. Multiple spikes here and there but those spikes have ended pretty quickly. Bart moves up and down. Those 'slide downs' means that the pressure is still down and if the lower red line breaks then the crypto world breaks together with this red line. From there we could see another free fall. So watch out if the price starts to reach into the light-blue and the red line area. The drop will be sharp if we make a break below the channel. If this happens then hold the horses :D You have been warned! Simplified - another bearish confirmation comes after the red line break!
Please, don't forget to LIKE, COMMENT & FOLLOW!
Thank You for your support, I really appreciate it!
Have a nice week!
All the best!
*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Bitcoin is still on the down-channel. Several attempts to break below has failed and we can assume that this channel bottom trendline is pretty heavy to beat but if it breaks then...holy cow! :)
Today's bounce came from the first fractal point on the 1H chart, from overall strong support area, and from blue line trendline crossing area.
This blue line is the continuation pattern Falling Wedge (blue trendlines) bottom trendline. So, we have a pattern inside the pattern. We have a down channel which could be also a bull flag if we see a breakout but to be a solid Flag it has to be a bit shorter currently it is just a too big/long that we can call it a sloppy Bull Flag and inside of that is the next continuation pattern called Falling Wedge.
I marked the areas above the Falling Wedge upper trendline with numbers, from those areas we get some bullish confirmations if the candle (at least 1H better if 4H) gets a close inside one of the areas. Let's start from bullish scenario because it's just more interesting!
Area 1 bullish confirmation:
1. Break above the continuation pattern Falling Wedge. We have still the short-term bull run from 27.-29. Nov. and the price is still on the HL (higher low) area, from there the continuation pattern starts to work upwards.
Area 2 bullish confirmations:
1. Break above the Falling Wedge
2. Break above the red line - strong resistance area. It has worked as a strong support and as a strong resistance. So, we can put this into the confirmations because of the area importance.
Like You see the arrow will guide us to the round number and the down channel crossing area. The round number and the channel upper trendline should work together as a strong resistance and probably we could see a little throwback from there to retest the red line again if the scenario will play out like this then the redline bounce will guide us into the area nr. 3.
Area 3 bullish confirmations:
1. Break above the Falling Wedge
2. Break above the strong resistance - red line at $3,875
3. Break above the down-channel!! This will be the biggest bullish confirmation if we look at this from the short-term perspective. We have been in this channel just a little bit over a week and to make an upwards breakout from the channel it should be a pretty big statement from bulls (short-term again) and from there we could see another bullish leg upwards.
Area 4 bullish confirmations:
1. Break above the Falling Wedge
2. Break above the strong resistance
3. Break above the channel!!
4. And the final short-term confirmations come after the break above the round number $4,000. It has worked lately as a strong resistance and a candle close above $4k will be another bullish confirmation which guides us to the major target area at $4,170. There are the well-know grossing area and the well-known trendline since 30. March 2018. Those two makes a crossing area and it should react as a pretty strong resistance!
Bearish scenario:
- In December the price has made lower lows and lower highs.
- We are still on the down channel!
- We don't have buyers consistency. Multiple spikes here and there but those spikes have ended pretty quickly. Bart moves up and down. Those 'slide downs' means that the pressure is still down and if the lower red line breaks then the crypto world breaks together with this red line. From there we could see another free fall. So watch out if the price starts to reach into the light-blue and the red line area. The drop will be sharp if we make a break below the channel. If this happens then hold the horses :D You have been warned! Simplified - another bearish confirmation comes after the red line break!
Please, don't forget to LIKE, COMMENT & FOLLOW!
Thank You for your support, I really appreciate it!
Have a nice week!
All the best!
*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Comment:
The bearish scenario won again and the bearish confirmation area was well placed!
Another leg down to the $3k comes after the current counter trendline break!
Another leg down to the $3k comes after the current counter trendline break!
Do we get a bounce from the black support line and do we go to test one more time that blue trendline!?