Bitcoin from bear to bull to neutral again

We have had some extremely boring weeks since the beginning of September, where we saw mixed signals all over the place. Finally looked like we had a small bullish break out a week ago to the 6700 but that lasted only minutes because the price dropped back to the 6600ish zone. In hindsight, this was a sign that the market did not want to go or was not allowed to go up. The triangle it was moving was getting bigger and bigger and we kept changing the line to make the price movement fit inside of it. Eventually the price made a big drop to 6200/6000 and it looked like all the support were broken already so based on TA there was only one way to go, that was in to the 5K levels. As always markets move in waves so a small correction was normal towards 6300/6400, but it should not go higher because that would have meant the drop to 6100 was just a shake out.

With the spread between the USD and USDT exchanges getting bigger AND the worries about Tether getting bigger as well, the uncertainty in the market became quite big. These conditions are the worst to have in a market. Having fears that your "money" is not safe anymore. The safest and only play someone has at that moment, is exchanging Tether for coins, in case Tether would go to a crash level. This is what we probably saw yesterday in combination with a short squeeze (stops getting triggered) on Bitfinex.

Instead of the market making an even bigger crash, because many important support levels already broke (except for the 6200/6100) AND with the uncertainty of Tether, Bitcoin made a huge rally. The fact that we dropped just as fast again, tells us how fake and (probably) meaningless the whole rally actually was. When zooming in to the Tether price and Bitcoin price, we can see a correlation between them. Not on the second though, but it's almost like big players were awake with their eyes wide open. Probably ready to jump into Bitcoin if Tether would drop even more, making Bitcoin a (temporarily) safe haven. Because the volume was quite big yesterday and the open shorts on Finex were close to the ATH again, the rally was probably caused by panic buying (because of Tether) and short stops getting triggered, taking the price up to 7800 even on Bitfinex So no normal buying because bulls think the market would go up, probably only technical factors that moved the price up so much. The quick drop to 6400ish shows that there are no eager bulls in the market yet to make a standard bull flag after a big rally.

We can draw lines and supports and patterns or whatever, but IMO they are quite meaningless at the moment. These are special circumstances which are new to everyone in the market. So unless there are some people who know exactly what is going on (upfront), i think the whole market is confused at the moment. With confusion and uncertainty, the chances for lower prices are the biggest. I have been giving the bulls the biggest chance each time we dropped in to the 6K levels, but with the drop of last week, the higher lows pattern broke which invalidated my main reason for being bullish. Now the 6000 never broke, so there is still a chance of course. But than we really need to see the uncertainties surrounding Tether and Bitfinex get resolved.

There is one big positive note though, we are currently still around 6400/6450, which tells us there is no panic in the market at the moment. I want to say that it's very bullish that we have not dropped already yet, but the thing is, people on Tether exchanges don't have much options than to buy coins. So there is probably allot of (involuntarily) buying volume because of this. But again, if there would have been real panic, the market would have crashed nonetheless.
When we look at the open shorts on Bitfinex, they have increased allot since the squeeze yesterday and the longs have decreased allot as well. Longs dropping this much is not something we want to see normally.

When we zoom in, the price movement since yesterday looks allot like a small bearish wedge, indicating a drop towards the 6300/6340. For the rest, IMO there is not much to go on. Think all the trend lines and patterns can be thrown out of the window. We need to judge the price action from the 6400ish level and forward. I think only important historic and psychological levels like 6000/6200/6800/7000 might still have meaning as well. What the bulls need to hope for, is that Tether goes back to $1.00ish and stays there, that all the uncertainty about these things go away. If this would happen, it could possibly give a relief to whole market and push the prices higher.

Only thing i can say for now, 6500 is a level to watch and the 6400ish as well. A break of 6300 could be the start of a bigger drop. Wish i had more to tell, but i don't at the moment.

If you want to add something to all of this or comment, feel free. We might be able to figure to understand everything better together.



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Previous analysis:

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Nothing much that has changed, broke the wedge but no follow through. So that does make the wedge less reliable. Meaning maybe it's not even a real wedge. The Tether is still playing a very big part, so TA is quite difficult now.

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Big surprise, nothing has happened. Probably until we get more clarity about Tether, don''t expect the market to do much. Looks like the Tether price has come to a triangle, so we might see a movement soon. Let's hope it goes back to a stable $1.00ish price so we can start to focus on normal market conditions again.

So unfortunately nothing much to say expect that taking a break would be a very good idea.

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So Tether broke that triangle i talked about earlier and moved upwards. The target is around 0.98 but lets hope it will go towards the 1.00 so we can put all of this behind us.
Bitcoin eventually dropped towards the target of that wedge, it could go a little bit lower even. Might even happen if Tether does go higher, because it seems the markets responds like that. Not much to add though, low volume and slow movement is all in favor of the bears, but it does not mean the bulls don't stand a chance. As long as price stays above the 6300ish, i consider things to be neutral.

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I got allot of questions about why i am not updating lately, well i think that's quite clear. What is there to update. As suspected, probably won't see any real movement until the Tether issue is solved. Best advice i can give, as i did a few days as well, take a break. Until we break the 6300-6500 range, i think it's a complete waste of time to even look at it. So until we:

Break this range
Tether drops allot
Tether goes back to $1.00

Go enjoy yourself or do something more useful than watching this market.

Tether seemed to have reached that target of the triangle, because of it moving in a pattern, i think we can assume that we also have speculative money in the Tether market now.

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Looks like Tether might turn up, but it shows a similar range as Bitcoin. So let's hope for a break of this range soon, so we can see some real movement in Bitcoin as well.

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Looks like a small H&S in the making and the price is getting very close to the neckline now. If the 6380ish breaks we can assume we will drop towards the 6300.

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