First of all, let's start with how we could've had anticipated the current dump on the Daily chart: We can see the steady divergence since the break of the occurred. Usually, a divergence on the is only a deceleration of the move, but in this case, we have a 'on top' so to speak. So in this case, we can take the as confirmation of the pattern:
Moving on to the Weekly chart, we could see a Hanging Man (wicks not twice the size of the candle body, but psychology was there) and Doji reversal candles shaping up: The was already showing that the bulls are losing on steam, the further confirmed this, as it acts as indecision/reversal in the marketplace. If we now close this weekly candle as a usual candle, we will have completed an Evening Star Pattern, which usually indicates very nice reversal.
So far, so good. But of all this still doesn't explain why we're not in a bull market yet. So what is the most important proof, that we need now, in order to determine, if we're in a bull market or not?
1. In the big picture, so in the weekly chart & monthly chart, we need a Trend Reversal happening with building Higher Lows & Higher Highs. On the weekly, we can clearly see that the last Higher Lows were made at the magic number 3,337 on Coinbase: Since then we've basically been in a steady upmove. The $5k region doesn't count as Higher Lows, since the definition is not given in this case: For a clear higher low, we need 2 candles to the left & to the right, which close higher. But in this case, we're shooting right back higher after a few consolidation candles.
So, what are currently good potential areas to look out for building HL? First of all, we would have the important $7k psychological number, which had acted as Daily support, and then obviously, we have our big wall of support a $6k, which held throughout the year of 2018. Important to note though: We shoot right through that S&R on the way coming up from the bottom, therefore it could be that also the bulls don't show much attention at that zone, should we consolidate to that region.
From that support -wherever it may be -we have to definitely break the $9k region and make Higher Highs -e.g. at the $10k. psychological: In this case, we would have the Weekly Trend change completed, and would be on our way, to also change the Monthly chart:
2. At least as important as the trend change, we need to reverse the bear market move:
As you know, Bitcoin has seen a parabolic move from $1,000 to $20,000. From this parabolic move, we also saw a big correction, similar to previous rallies. If we measure the bear market from Top to Bottom, e.g. from $20k to the $3,2k region, we so far only managed to come to $9k, which equals around 38,2% of the .
What we need though, according to the consensus of the majority of traders, would be to definitely break above the Golden Pocket, which is the 61,8% retracement: This is currently coming in at roughly $13k.
Even if you don't consider Technical Terms like Fibonacci, you can at least take simple human logic: Fibonacci is nothing else than percentage moves. If we look at it that way, I think it is fair to say that we should at least break 50% of the bear market move to be calling it a bull market again. 50% is currently coming in at around $11k.
Conclusion: This is how I personally & many other technical colleagues would look to determine, if we're in a bull market or not. I really hope that you had some value, and in this case would ask you to smash the like button for further analysis like these! ;) Please comment, if you didn't understand something, or if you have a different opinion and we can discuss.
Greets from sunny Munich, enjoy your day! ;)
Edgy is providing online education & tools only. We are not a financial advisor, nor do we hold any formal qualifications in this area. You're trading at your own risk. No matter what you do, please set your stop loss. Please be aware, that you can lose all your money on the online exchanges.
Because the lack of your support, unfortunately a huge amount of the TradingView community is not seeing my analyses, and I'm not getting any more followers. We are far, far away from getting to the main page, and therefore, I'm not sure if from now on I'm going to continue putting out analyses like this any more on TradingView.