If BTC closes today above MA200, bullmarket has started

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Well, I might have been wrong after all. But then again I was always stating that there is a 20% chance that BTC surprises us, and does something crazy, like this pump here.

Now, what to make of the pump?

It entirely depends where the daily will close today. If above MA200/log resistance, at around 4600, then the chances are really good that we start the next bullmarket. Earlier than I expected. In this case, I will have to revisit
my longterm projections, since this might have some implications on the timeline and the height of the next peak. Could be sooner now, as early as 2021, but then probably not much above 100k as ATH target.

However, if we have a situation like on 15th of October 2018, you remember, the 1000USD pump from, 6500 to 7500. And then only a few weeks later the massive dump from 6500 to 3100.

Well, if we close today at 4500 or below, the chances for this candle being an epic bulltrap, are greatly increased.
In this case, the bearish target at 1800-2300USD remains intact and all longterm projections as well.

Let's see what will happen today, and I will update the longterm projections afterwards if necessary.

Comment: I should add that, in this picture it is very well possible to retest the 3000s area. See my new longterm chart here:

The possibility for a new low slightly below 3100 is not off the table I'd say, depending on which route BTC will take to ATH, the fast one or the slow one.

We could see an accumulation zone between 3000 and 5000 forming, aking to 200-300 range in 2015.
I will wait until weekly stoch RSI has cooled off again, when it's on oversold, I'll probably start re-entering the market.
Comment: BTC looking very bullish still.
The weekly closes soon, and if it does so above the weekly BBand, daily MA200, logarithmic res, I am pretty sure that the scenario of a new lof becomes very unlikely. Not impossible, because nothing is impossible with BTC, but unlikely.
You said 2k ! ROFL
+2 Reply
Agreed. Still waiting to see how PA develops, not entirely discarding test of lows and creation of new lows. I don't like the volume on weekly, and as suggested by others only one daily close above 4600/200DMA is not enough in my opinion. The bad thing is that if this is not the start of the bull market than the bear market will be prolonged. Let's see how PA develops, if this was the bottom than we will pop champagne again in the next 18,24 months :)
Note: NVT is quite high on daily.
@Mo6e, Traded volumes now ~16+ billions per day like in Jan 2018. But price less more than 3 times.
Mo6e BearFuck
@BearFuck, Hi, from where is your source of traded volume ?
Mo6e BearFuck
@BearFuck, not accurate, check this https://openmarketcap.com
@BearFuck you can read why and how as well.
@Mo6e, I understand. Seems last month https://openmarketcap.com/cryptocurrency/btc-usd brutal fuck your business because they not assume bitmex, bithumb volumes....
@Mo6e, why you need accurate numbers? To understand market direction you need see only trend.
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