On 6-11 in the 106th daily update I said that the price of Bitcoin was oversold and said that it is very important not to chase after a move of 10% in less than 24 hours. That was primarily based on how far we had fallen below the 12 period exponential moving average on the 4 hour and 1 day chart.
I said we would either get a bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or see days of consolidation. Yesterday we were trading at a cluster of resistance, white horizontal combined with the red trend, and a pullback was expected.
Previous resistance turned into support, a higher low was formed and now we are retesting the cluster of resistance. Today the bulls and the bears have some reliable indicators to point to and I expect the resistance to be heavily contested.
Higher low on the 4 hour vs Hanging Man on the daily
Bullish cross on 12/26 day EMA on 6 hour chart vs resistance cluster on Daily chart
C Clamp (indicates price is out of equilibrium/oversold) vs Volume Profile Visible Range (shows strong built up resistance at current price $6750 and at $7,600
Stochastic on 3 day and Weekly (very bullish) vs RSI on Weekly (bear div), Daily (approaching resistance) and 4 hour (at resistance, pictured above)
Deciding Factors
Shooting star on previous 1 hour candle tells me that bears are winning the fight.
When there is a good argument to be made from both sides then it is very important to take into account the overall trend and momentum. We are deep in the trenches of a bear market and the momentum has been overwhelming each reversal attempt.
The Stochastic is the most bullish indicator by far, and could cause for a rally to the $7,600 range. Therefor if you are looking to enter a position I would suggest opening a short with 33% of your desired position at the current level of resistance. Adding 33% at $7,000 and adding the rest at $7,600. If the price doesn't rally to $7,600 then add the rest of your position after a new swing low below $5,875
The short term target of $4,975 is still firmly intact. I am short ETH:USD and ETH:BTC.
Thank you for reading! Have a question? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
I said we would either get a bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or see days of consolidation. Yesterday we were trading at a cluster of resistance, white horizontal combined with the red trend, and a pullback was expected.
Previous resistance turned into support, a higher low was formed and now we are retesting the cluster of resistance. Today the bulls and the bears have some reliable indicators to point to and I expect the resistance to be heavily contested.
Higher low on the 4 hour vs Hanging Man on the daily
Bullish cross on 12/26 day EMA on 6 hour chart vs resistance cluster on Daily chart
Stochastic on 3 day and Weekly (very bullish) vs RSI on Weekly (bear div), Daily (approaching resistance) and 4 hour (at resistance, pictured above)
Deciding Factors
Shooting star on previous 1 hour candle tells me that bears are winning the fight.
When there is a good argument to be made from both sides then it is very important to take into account the overall trend and momentum. We are deep in the trenches of a bear market and the momentum has been overwhelming each reversal attempt.
The Stochastic is the most bullish indicator by far, and could cause for a rally to the $7,600 range. Therefor if you are looking to enter a position I would suggest opening a short with 33% of your desired position at the current level of resistance. Adding 33% at $7,000 and adding the rest at $7,600. If the price doesn't rally to $7,600 then add the rest of your position after a new swing low below $5,875
The short term target of $4,975 is still firmly intact. I am short ETH:USD and ETH:BTC.
Thank you for reading! Have a question? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
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