BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The small warning i gave yesterday played out, but with the pump we had today again, they only hurt the ones using stops. Moves of the past days, look very similar to what we have see 2 weeks ago, with this pump and dump. There is a big difference though, the days prior to this fractal , are different. I don't like to make TA on moves like this, because it's a lot of noise AND it's weekend again. But i try to give you a guideline here. That circled blue are (that wick) did not happen this time.

Remember, 2 weeks ago, they did that pump to 4200ish as well on Saturday, around the same time, before that dump on Sunday. I honestly don't know at this point what the next step will be. Would rather see a drop to 3800/3700 to think of a long again. But this here, can go both ways. ETH is not really following, while that one was leading 2 weeks ago. LTC also not really moving. But of course, if btc breaks 3950/4000, they will follow as well. But normally for bullish move, want to see alts move stronger than bitcoin .

So i think this zone is very difficult to trade on and best to stay out of even. I think the fractal will get invalidated if we break the 4000 level. On the downside, a break of 3880ish, might mean we drop even more towards the 3700/3800 zone. There was a big fight past few hours, big buys and sells where OI was increasing (so many new shorts and longs opened).

It followed my plan form the previous analysis quite well, but that bull flag from past week just was taking so much time, it might mean something else is going on (for the short term at least)

Best advice i can give is: Go enjoy your Saturday and leave the gambling to others :)
Best guess is: Move towards 4000 and Bart move dump to 3800/3700. Unless ETH and LTC really break out.


Thank you for all the likes for the previous analysis, very motivating. I will post a normal analysis after we will see all of this play out.


Previous analysis:

Comment: This possible triangle might give a good clue for the low time frame now.

Comment: Still moving a bit similar as the fractal. There is another one, also a bit the same. Now it looks like the 3860 is the support, but volume is very low, so don't know if that level has real meaning. ETH is still weaker than usual, so based on that chances down are still a bit higher. I think we will see a nasty move before the direction gets chosen. So for day traders, i would stay out, for swing traders, just follow your plan, because there is enough to say for both long and short at this spot. I think a correction down is more likely, simply because it has been taking much too long.

Comment: When zooming in a bit, we can see ETH making a double bottom and broke the neckline. BTC made a small bullish wedge also on it's way up, but volume is just sooo low, don't know if it makes sense to trust it. Yellow circles should be the targets.

Comment: New ETH analysis:

Comment: The only i see with Bitcoin, is big buy orders, stimulating people to buy. But it's all very low volume buying. Like it's pro's pushing retail money to buy here. Still no confirmation at all from ETH and LTC. So i would remain very cautious. Calling it a day, maybe we have some real movement tomorrow.

Comment: Still moving like this fractal and also the one from the primary chart. The wedge that has been formed the past 12 hours just broke. If it's a wedge, the target has been reached already. If it's more like a flag, than maybe this fractal will be followed with a bigger drop. Think the 3800ish is the level to watch. I would keep an closer eye on ETH, still below that blue curved line of my current ETH analysis. As long as that one doesn't break, big danger for a drop

Comment: New Bitcoin analysis:

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wrong again
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It's getting back to Boring AF mode right now
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Those short term fluctuations are nothing but consolidation on the new long term support zone.

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I often see "the move happened with low volume." Can someone explain to me how we know, i.e. what is the standard for when a move was made with low vs high volume? How much volume is "high" in relative terms? So important to know, especially because we wait for a high volume confirmation for breakouts and re-tests of support and resistance.
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botje11 Grappling_Hook
@Grappling_Hook, Anything below 1000 mil on Bitmex is low. For a bullish move, need to see it above 1.5 bill, for a real move, above 2/3 bill. Without volume, it means bears are like taking a step back, waiting for higher prices to short it. If price moves up with high volume, it means bulls are stronger
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@botje11, Thank you!
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Great analysis! thanks for your insights. Check out mine (4200$ one more time and then impuls down)
What you think guys?

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botje11, as always, makes great analysis!

Friends, please take a look at my analysis as well!
Actually, I’ve reached a very similar conclusion about the price forecast for BTC/USD, but via different chart patterns.
You’ll certainly find it useful! I'd greatly appreciate it, if you leave your feedback.

+3 Reply
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