Hello Friends,
I am updating the wave count because targets change according to previous wave size. Here on this chart I have a few scenarios that will play out. We all know we are at a strong resistance level and may not break through making our 3rd wave. If this happens I have indicated targets for a break of structure. However if we do break resistance, I have also given probable targets.
Looking back over the past few weeks we had a powerful 3 candle move down (weekly)to 3850.xx and since then have slowly regained some ground with 6 candles indicating that the move down was more powerful than the move up. My thoughts are that we will not reach the 3rd wave and will break structure because of the latest COT reports. All I see is a bearish outcome for BTC.
Since we have regained ground, all we really done was retraced to strong resistance hitting the golden ratio of 61.8%. This information of a retracement with weakness tells me that we have another move down and possibly lower then what I have indicated on this chart. The chart it self is about elliot waves and is correct but underneath the wave count is another story as I have indicated.
So what does all this mean? Flip a coin, heads or tales? Yes there is a 50% chance of being right or wrong when it comes to BTC, yet our inside information of hedge funds does give us an edge. There is an increase of shorts and the majority is holding interest in their position on the short side.
Keep an eye on support and resistance on the 4hr time-frame and expect a retest of these areas, if we break down and retest then that is a good sign of a short position. If we break resistance and retest then we are long but is it worth longing at this point? No, I would wait on pull backs as indicated on this chart before opening a long position.
COT reports if interested. i.imgur.com/eyCubRM.png
Cheers!
I am updating the wave count because targets change according to previous wave size. Here on this chart I have a few scenarios that will play out. We all know we are at a strong resistance level and may not break through making our 3rd wave. If this happens I have indicated targets for a break of structure. However if we do break resistance, I have also given probable targets.
Looking back over the past few weeks we had a powerful 3 candle move down (weekly)to 3850.xx and since then have slowly regained some ground with 6 candles indicating that the move down was more powerful than the move up. My thoughts are that we will not reach the 3rd wave and will break structure because of the latest COT reports. All I see is a bearish outcome for BTC.
Since we have regained ground, all we really done was retraced to strong resistance hitting the golden ratio of 61.8%. This information of a retracement with weakness tells me that we have another move down and possibly lower then what I have indicated on this chart. The chart it self is about elliot waves and is correct but underneath the wave count is another story as I have indicated.
So what does all this mean? Flip a coin, heads or tales? Yes there is a 50% chance of being right or wrong when it comes to BTC, yet our inside information of hedge funds does give us an edge. There is an increase of shorts and the majority is holding interest in their position on the short side.
Keep an eye on support and resistance on the 4hr time-frame and expect a retest of these areas, if we break down and retest then that is a good sign of a short position. If we break resistance and retest then we are long but is it worth longing at this point? No, I would wait on pull backs as indicated on this chart before opening a long position.
COT reports if interested. i.imgur.com/eyCubRM.png
Cheers!
Comment:
New Target is the 2.618% Fib
