TheChartGuys

BTC 4 Hour Trend Must Change

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Weakness continues in BTC as we do not have any indication of a daily higher low being set yet. 4 hour EMA resistance continues to reject the price, but the bears are not getting much follow through to the lower lows. BTC bears are using 4 hour EMA resistance as a guide. Volatility in general is likely to shrink the next week or two in my opinion.

ETH, LTC and some other alts are holding up well during this weakness, and they can only hope the strength in their BTC pairing charts continues when BTC does change the 4 hour trend bullish . If this were to play out we would likely see continued higher high on their USD daily charts . Still in LTC for about 4 days at this point as we ping pong between a $3 range.

Thank you for your work
+1 Reply
Great description buddy.
+2 Reply
Thank you so much for putting the support and resistance levels on your chart!! I just published my very 1st chart idea a little while ago!!!
+2 Reply
Stochastic bull divergence on 4H
beautiful hammer on 6h

+1 Reply
@Maped, 12h needs to push a little bit more the following 10min in order to close with a green and not a red doji
+1 Reply
@Maped, good. What indicators did you use?
Reply
Maped Goldfeniks
@Goldfeniks,
-pivot points as horizontal levels (daily, weekly, monthly, with S/R levels activated too). I have different templates with different pivots timeframes to keep a clean chart and not put everything on the same screen)

-hand drawed horizontal levels as needed, like 9750 and 10000 here
VPVR can help to catch volumes point of control (where the most volumes were exchanged = strong horizontal level), but it basically always agrees with pivot points in short term, I'm using it to catch long term horizontal levels mainly

-volumes of course. I'm using a " (coinbase:btcusd+bitstamp:btcusd+kraken:btcusd)/3 " ticker to avoid USDT since BTC/USDT is fluctuating according to USDT/USD, giving sometimes bad price signals.
BUT, Binance BTC/USDT volume is very important ! Always keep an eye on it

-CME BTC futures gap as other support/resistance levels tool

-Sometimes Bitmex Funding. Sudden and strong changes in the funding can be usefull.

-RSI (black) and Stochastic (white) oscillators for divergences. RSI is powerfull for normal div (reversal), Stochastic is better for hidden div (trend continuation only, never consider hidden div for reversal !!!).
I use them for divergences only.

-EMA-MA crossover (same period) for trend analysis

-DMI for volatility analysis (both DMI lines in black, I don't care about trend here, I just want to mesure volatility, so the space between both)
-Sometimes ADX for long term trend analysis, like on the weekly or daily BLX chart.

-Some patterns here and there, but I always wait for confirmation. An unconfirmed pattern IS NOT a pattern, it's just random lines.

I'm recently trying Normalized Standard Selector from RicardoSantos, which is based on different type of MAs and volatility (Standard Deviation). It's the indicator with "sideways" and "bulltrend" labels, etc ... You can find another version with a better theme on my profile ! But all the credit goes to RicardoSantos
It's usefull, but I could do without.
It's good if you want to catch the trend in an easy way, it tells you everything and it's accurate !

Always remember : the bigger the timeframe, the bigger weight it should have on your analysis. If I receive a strong bear signal on the 4h, I won't consider the recent bull signal on 1h timeframe, for exemple, or only for a very short timelapse. Follow the trend ;)

Don't use lot of indicators to begin, focus on the basics first, then you can try one indicator, learn to use it 100% efficiently. When it's done, you can try another one, etc .... Don't collection them for nothing !
+3 Reply
@Maped, great post. Thx so much
Reply
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