My apologies for not updating since my last analysis a week ago. Hope it was still helpful even though the drop they did to 6800/900 was only for a few hours. Went even much faster than the previous bear trap we had. Would almost think as if some whales had to change their plan after me exposing their tricks a bit in my previous analysis.
Good news is, the long term bear trap scenario has become much more likely now. Still doesn't mean we will see 15K or 20K next year or whenever, but i was VERY worried a month or 2 ago. Had a lot of fear that we might get a long term bear market again, reaching prices of 3K again. So from that point of view, it's a win. That bear market has become less likely at this point.
I will write a new analysis coming days, making an attempt to show how i think we might be moving coming month or 2. Alts also look pretty good when looking at the daily/weekly chart. Showing some nice long term bottom formations. Was hoping to see a move to 7800/8100 and then a big retest of 6800/7200 before a bigger move up would start. This would have created a great foundation long term. At this point, i don't know if we get that retest anytime soon.
These bull flags you see in the chart above, are a bit similar. Both after a big drop from higher levels, both after some bottom formations. So i like the idea to compare them. Year ago we can see it was a trap when it broke the bull flag, but a big factor was the low volume at the breakout. So that is an important sign to follow if we see a move up. From the looks of it, we are at the red circle at the moment. So as long as we stay above 7900/7950, think we are at the same spot.
If this bull flag wont become a trap, then we could even think of a move towards 9000/9500 before any big correction happens. For the long term, i prefer to see a correction towards 7000 first before going towards the 10K. To make the 6000/7000 zone even more solid, even more obviously unbreakable. That would be a much better foundation long term. So we don't get a scenario like we had in 2018, with the 6K level.
Already been talking more than i wanted, actually just wanted to show these 2 bull flags. My best guess is, if we see a good volume push up and getting above 8600 (maybe 8700), then i think it might be real. So think it's an important 24 hours or so ahead of us.
Previous analysis:
Good news is, the long term bear trap scenario has become much more likely now. Still doesn't mean we will see 15K or 20K next year or whenever, but i was VERY worried a month or 2 ago. Had a lot of fear that we might get a long term bear market again, reaching prices of 3K again. So from that point of view, it's a win. That bear market has become less likely at this point.
I will write a new analysis coming days, making an attempt to show how i think we might be moving coming month or 2. Alts also look pretty good when looking at the daily/weekly chart. Showing some nice long term bottom formations. Was hoping to see a move to 7800/8100 and then a big retest of 6800/7200 before a bigger move up would start. This would have created a great foundation long term. At this point, i don't know if we get that retest anytime soon.
These bull flags you see in the chart above, are a bit similar. Both after a big drop from higher levels, both after some bottom formations. So i like the idea to compare them. Year ago we can see it was a trap when it broke the bull flag, but a big factor was the low volume at the breakout. So that is an important sign to follow if we see a move up. From the looks of it, we are at the red circle at the moment. So as long as we stay above 7900/7950, think we are at the same spot.
If this bull flag wont become a trap, then we could even think of a move towards 9000/9500 before any big correction happens. For the long term, i prefer to see a correction towards 7000 first before going towards the 10K. To make the 6000/7000 zone even more solid, even more obviously unbreakable. That would be a much better foundation long term. So we don't get a scenario like we had in 2018, with the 6K level.
Already been talking more than i wanted, actually just wanted to show these 2 bull flags. My best guess is, if we see a good volume push up and getting above 8600 (maybe 8700), then i think it might be real. So think it's an important 24 hours or so ahead of us.
Previous analysis:
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