The spike following the US-Iran news gave credence to Bitcoin's position as a risk-off asset. But as tensions cool and the stock market reaches crazy highs, we could conceivably see several more months or even a year+ of kicking the can down the road before Bitcoin's time to shine.
Currently the two day seems to be offering the clearest picture around Bitcoin's macro direction.
Price action shows a fairly bearish shooting star with rejection around the upper downwards trend line.
Unless Bitcoin can close above key resistance of $8500-900 within the next 4-6 weeks, a bearish cross of the 50 EMA below the 200 EMA seems inevitable. (note the 50 bar period shown by the blue arrow). Last time we had a two day EMA Death Cross was in September 2018, after which Bitcoin held below and then capitulated below $6000.
On the Stoch RSI We also have a bearish cross forming in overbought territory. The last four times this happened in this downtrend it led to significant sell offs (shown here by the red arrows).
We'd all love Bitcoin to moon tomorrow, but we undeniably have not seen a macro trend change yet. Bitcoin now has at most a couple of months to re-assert its bull run or we could be waiting a year or more for things to turn.
With the 2018 capitulation still fresh in the memory, and the upcoming halving in May, another major dump might be the last thing many of us are expecting. All the more reason to be aware.
Currently the two day seems to be offering the clearest picture around Bitcoin's macro direction.
Price action shows a fairly bearish shooting star with rejection around the upper downwards trend line.
Unless Bitcoin can close above key resistance of $8500-900 within the next 4-6 weeks, a bearish cross of the 50 EMA below the 200 EMA seems inevitable. (note the 50 bar period shown by the blue arrow). Last time we had a two day EMA Death Cross was in September 2018, after which Bitcoin held below and then capitulated below $6000.
On the Stoch RSI We also have a bearish cross forming in overbought territory. The last four times this happened in this downtrend it led to significant sell offs (shown here by the red arrows).
We'd all love Bitcoin to moon tomorrow, but we undeniably have not seen a macro trend change yet. Bitcoin now has at most a couple of months to re-assert its bull run or we could be waiting a year or more for things to turn.
With the 2018 capitulation still fresh in the memory, and the upcoming halving in May, another major dump might be the last thing many of us are expecting. All the more reason to be aware.
