4H Roadmap: The Structure That Will Decide the Weekly Scenario# **DXY | 4H Roadmap: The Structure That Will Decide the Weekly Scenario 🌀**
Greetings, fellow wave practitioners.
In the previous weekly analysis, I presented two valid long-term scenarios for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): an **Aggressive Scenario** and a **Conservative Scenario**. The purpose of this 4-hour update is to determine which of those higher-degree paths the market is currently constructing.
From the most recent major high, the initial decline is unfolding as a **three-wave structure**. This is a crucial observation because those three waves form the foundation for interpreting the higher-degree count. The real question is not where price is going next—it is **what structure these three waves actually represent.**
At this stage, the current rally may simply be a corrective move. If this correction completes within the highlighted reaction zone, the preferred interpretation is that the market is developing **Wave (4) of a Leading Diagonal**. Under this scenario, one final decline would be expected to complete **Wave (5)** of the diagonal, thereby finishing the entire higher-degree **Wave (A)**.
However, markets rarely choose the simplest path. Should the current correction extend beyond the expected characteristics of a typical fourth wave, more complex corrective structures must also be considered. What appears today as a simple correction could evolve into a **Double Zigzag (W-X-Y)** or even a **Triple Zigzag (W-X-Y-X-Z)**, requiring additional time before the correction is fully completed.
For this reason, the focus should not be placed solely on price targets. The highlighted reaction zones, corrective channels, and—most importantly—price behavior around those areas will provide the strongest evidence for identifying the market's true structure. Until that structure becomes clear, every wave count that remains consistent with the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle deserves consideration.
Ultimately, the interpretation of this 4-hour structure will determine which of the two weekly scenarios gains confirmation.
If the market completes the current correction and then produces one final decline to finish the Leading Diagonal, the **Aggressive Scenario** will gain significant credibility. In that case, the recent decline would represent only **Wave (A)** of a much larger corrective sequence, to be followed by a higher-degree **Wave (B)** and eventually **Wave (C)**.
On the other hand, if price decisively breaks above the key structural levels and no longer behaves consistently with the expected diagonal or corrective pattern, the **Aggressive Scenario** would gradually lose validity. That outcome would strengthen the **Conservative Scenario**, suggesting that the larger correction has already ended and that the U.S. Dollar Index may be entering a new long-term bullish phase.
At this point, the answer will not come from prediction—it will come from **price behavior**.
As Elliott Wave analysts, our objective is not to forecast the future with certainty. Our objective is to identify the structure the market is building in real time. Once that structure reveals itself, the higher-degree roadmap becomes considerably clearer.
**Patterns whisper. I listen.**
**— Mr. Nobody** 📊🌀
Dollar Index Future
2 days ago
DXY | Corrective Structure Under the Microscope
Long
SPCX: The Trillion-Dollar Ego Float & The Staggered Unlock Trap🚀 💸 📉 🪓 🚀 💸 📉 🪓
Let's be totally honest about the massive SpaceX listing (NASDAQ: SPCX): this historic IPO was engineered from day one as the ultimate liquidity vanity project.
By floating a tiny, minuscule slice of the company (roughly 3.3% to 4.2% of the actual equity) and leaving 95%+ securely locked up, the market makers engineered an extreme supply-squeeze.
The result? A highly manipulated paper valuation pushing $1.77 trillion, giving the illusion of the world’s first trillionaire on paper while everyday retail traders chase the momentum.
If you are an early pre-IPO investor or an employee sitting on shares, the playbook here isn't to buy the hype—it's to aggressively delta-hedge or build a synthetic short strategy around the upcoming unlock dates to lock in your pricing before the tidal wave of supply hits the secondary market.
📅 【 THE STAGGERED SUPPLY AVALANCHE: UNLOCK DYNAMICS 】
* **Initial Float:** 555 Million Shares
➔ 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘙𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺: A tiny sandbox with low-20% retail allocation designed to maximize artificial volatility.
* **Conditional Trigger (Trades > $176):** Activated
➔ 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘙𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺: Cracking 30% above the $135 IPO base price mechanically opens an extra 10% insider tranche, capping the asset instantly.
* **August 11 (Q2 Earnings):** ~1 Billion Shares Unlocked
➔ 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘙𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺: Up to 20% of core insider holdings flood straight onto the tape.
The upward momentum breaks here.
* **Rolling Time Blocks:** 350M Shares Exiting Every 15 Days
➔ 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘙𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺: Staggered 7% tranches hitting at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days post-IPO ensure continuous, aggressive dilution.
* **Late October / November:** Final Major Tranches
➔ 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘙𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺: The secondary market becomes entirely oversaturated with paper.
The ultimate liquidity trap springs shut.
⚠️ Note on the Chief Operator: While the political elite and institutional capital bow to the allure of the paper trillionaire, remember that Elon Musk's personal 42% stake is under a strict 366-day hard lockup.
His trillionaire status is an illiquid phantom, purely useful for flexing power while the remaining insider blocks quietly distribute into retail hands.
📉 Technical Coordinates: SPCX to Earth
The daily price action tracked shows the structural reality of the post-IPO distribution.
The initial euphoric push to the $225.64 high has entirely dissolved, and the stock is hovering flatly at $153.23.
➔ ➔ ➔ ➔
Immediate Resistance ($176.00): The conditional unlock ceiling.
Any attempt to pump the stock past this level is immediately met with institutional selling blocks.
Target 1 ($102.20): The first structural decompression target visible
This represents the clean erasure of the IPO premium once the August earnings release unlocks hit the tape.
Target 3 ($25.88): The true fundamental valuation zone. Stripping away the hype and the xAI/social-media baggage, the real baseline value of the underlying rocket enterprise sits closer to the $20-$25 channel.
⚡ The Macro Coffin: OpenAI & Anthropic Cascades
This isn't an isolated event; it is the opening act of a systemic liquidity drain.
SpaceX is simply the first monstrous money grab out of the gate, designed to suck up the remaining retail liquidity at the absolute peak of the cycle.
Waiting in the wings are the massive public listings of OpenAI and Anthropic, both of which have already quietly filed initial documents.
When these massive, capital-incinerating entities simultaneously hit the public exchanges, they will act as the final nails in the coffin of this multi-year tech bull run.
Expect a violent macro liquidity migration that will drag the broader indexes down past the initial 7,000 threshold, accelerating into a proper, structural bear market targeting sub-6,000 territory.
Protect your capital, watch the unlock dates on SPAC-X and let the retail crowd hold the bag while you short the distribution.
#SpaceXIPO #SPCX #ElonMusk #InitialPublicOffering #Nasdaq #TechnicalAnalysis #ShortSetup #UnlockSchedule #MacroAlpha #TradingView #LiquidityDrain #TechBubble #BearMarket #HedgingStrategy #PreIPO 
Short
Two Valid Scenarios Remain | Elliott Wave AnalysisBitcoin (BTC/USD): Two Valid Scenarios Remain | Elliott Wave Analysis
In this analysis, both the conservative and aggressive scenarios remain valid. Until the market completes its structure, neither scenario has a decisive advantage over the other.
Under the conservative scenario, there is a possibility that the larger-degree Wave (IV) has already been completed, and the market is now developing Wave (1) of Wave (V). If this wave count is correct, the current correction may complete Wave (2) as a Double Zigzag, allowing the market to resume what could become the largest impulsive phase of Wave (V).
From this perspective, price action is the key factor. If the market begins to develop a strong Impulse or even a series of Nested 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 formations, it would significantly strengthen the probability that a new impulsive advance has already begun.
On the other hand, the aggressive scenario still suggests that the recent decline was only the first stage of a much larger corrective structure. In this case, the current rally may simply be another corrective phase, whether as a Simple Zigzag, Double Zigzag, Triple Zigzag, or any other valid corrective pattern. Once that structure is complete, another decline would be expected.
If this scenario unfolds, the larger corrective targets remain in the $30,000–$40,000 region. Furthermore, if the market is still developing the larger-degree Wave (IV), a deeper correction toward the Wave (4) of Wave (5) region, near $15,000, cannot be ruled out and remains a valid structural possibility.
At this stage, the most important question is not where price will ultimately trade, but whether the current advance marks the beginning of a new bullish trend or is simply a corrective rally before the next decline.
As with every Elliott Wave analysis, this is a structural interpretation of the market—not a price prediction. As long as the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle continue to support these wave counts, both scenarios remain valid. Ultimately, the market itself will determine which structure unfolds.
We do not predict price—we follow the structure the market builds.
— Mr. Nobody
Independent Elliott Wave Principle Researcher
"Patterns whisper. I listen." 📊🎧
Bitcoin
Jun 2
BTCUSD 4H | The Geometry of Patience: Price, Time & the Triple Z
Bitcoin
May 22
BTCUSD — The Macro Structural Cycle (2026–2030)
Bitcoin Futures
6 days ago
Wave (IV) May Be Preparing the Next Bullish Cycle
Bitcoin
5 days ago
Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Simple Zigzag Remains the Preferred Structure
Long
Reading the Character of the Next Market CycleCrude Oil: Impulse or Diagonal? Reading the Character of the Next Market Cycle
In my previous long-term analysis, the primary expectation was that crude oil was developing the final fifth wave of the largest degree as a classic Impulse. If that interpretation proves correct, the long-term bullish outlook remains valid and significantly higher price objectives could still become achievable over the coming years.
However, as the market structure continues to evolve, another equally valid Elliott Wave scenario deserves serious consideration.
Rather than unfolding as a traditional impulse, the final advance may develop as a Diagonal. At this stage, the structure could take the form of an Ending Diagonal, an Extended Diagonal, or—most likely—a Contracting Diagonal (wedge).
If this scenario unfolds, the long-term bullish outlook remains intact. The difference lies not in the direction of the trend, but in its character. Instead of a fast, decisive advance, price may continue to climb through an overlapping, grinding, and increasingly exhausting structure—behavior that is typical of terminal diagonals.
At the same time, the conservative scenario remains fully valid.
Under this interpretation, the decline from the previous major high represents only Wave A of a larger corrective structure. The following rally retraced more than 90% of that decline and reached approximately 11,555.4, a behavior that remains consistent with several corrective formations.
As a result, the current decline could be developing as an impulsive Wave C of a Classic Zigzag (A-B-C). Alternatively, it may become part of a larger Double Zigzag correction.
Another possibility that should not be overlooked is the development of a Flat correction—either a Regular Flat or an Expanded Flat. In such a case, Wave C could itself unfold as an Expanding Ending Diagonal. Although less common, this structure is fully consistent with Elliott Wave guidelines and is often characterized by increasing volatility, broadening price swings, and persistent overlap between waves.
At this stage, no single scenario has been confirmed. The evolution of price structure—and respect for key invalidation levels—will ultimately determine which path the market chooses.
Beyond Price: Studying the Character of Waves
Over the years, my research has gradually moved beyond simply counting waves or projecting price targets.
One question continues to capture my attention:
Can market structure reveal not only where price may go, but also the character of the environment in which future market cycles will unfold?
This is why I spend as much time studying the character of waves as I do their labels.
Many traders assume that every impulse must resemble the textbook ideal. My observations suggest otherwise. Every market has its own personality. Some trends unfold with exceptional strength and clarity, while others advance through prolonged overlap, hesitation, and exhaustion.
Perhaps these differences are not random.
Financial markets do not exist in isolation. They constantly interact with one another. Sometimes they move together through positive correlation. Sometimes they move in opposite directions. At other times, these relationships strengthen, weaken, or even reverse as global economic conditions evolve.
Understanding these relationships is far more complex than identifying a wave count, and I believe there is still much to discover.
In the case of crude oil, for example, a prolonged period of geopolitical tension, recurring disruptions to strategic energy routes, political conflicts, or a sustained war of attrition could create market conditions that are more consistent with the personality of an Ending Diagonal than with a clean, explosive impulse.
Conversely, an abrupt and severe supply shock could produce the kind of powerful momentum more commonly associated with a classic Impulse.
This is not an attempt to predict geopolitical events.
Rather, it is an attempt to understand whether market structure may reflect changes in collective psychology before those changes become fully visible through headlines and economic data.
This remains an ongoing personal research project rather than a definitive conclusion. My objective is not simply to forecast price, but to better understand the relationship between wave structure, crowd psychology, intermarket behavior, and the broader forces shaping future market cycles.
Perhaps markets do more than anticipate price.
Perhaps they also whisper something about the future itself.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody
CFDs on Brent Crude Oil
Jun 6
Crude Oil: The Long-Term Elliott Wave Projection
CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
7 days ago
US Oil (WTI) – 4H Elliott Wave Update
Long
Long
Is Wave C Complete, or Is the Correction Still Unfolding?Ethereum
Following the broader structural outlook presented in the weekly analysis and the primary scenarios discussed in the daily chart, this 4-hour update focuses on the internal development of Wave C—the portion of the structure that may ultimately determine whether the higher-degree Wave (IV) correction is nearing completion.
Conservative Scenario
According to the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle, Wave W appears to have completed as a Simple Zigzag, followed by Wave X as a Classic Zigzag. The market is currently developing Wave Y as a Flat Correction, with the structure so far remaining consistent with a Regular Flat.
However, until Wave C is fully completed, the possibility of the pattern extending into an Expanded Flat remains valid. For that reason, the primary focus is on the internal development of Wave C, where the completion of a five-wave impulsive sequence will help determine whether the correction ends as a Regular Flat or evolves into an Expanded Flat through an extended Wave C.
If Wave Y completes as expected, the higher-degree Wave (IV) would likely come to an end, allowing the market to transition into Wave (V). Under this scenario, the next objective will be to identify the beginning of a new motive sequence and evaluate the potential strength and extension of the fifth wave.
Nevertheless, if the correction remains incomplete after Wave Y has finished, the structure may continue evolving into a Triple Three (W-X-Y-X-Z). In that case, Wave Z is not limited to a specific corrective pattern. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, it may develop as a Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or any other valid corrective combination, provided that the structural, time, and price relationships between W, Y, and Z remain consistent with the characteristics of the completed pattern.
Aggressive Scenario
The aggressive interpretation presents a different structural perspective.
In this view, Wave W is considered a completed Simple Zigzag, while the rally into the previous high is labeled as Wave X. Based on this count, the market is now developing Wave Y.
Rather than forming a simple corrective pattern, Wave Y may evolve into a larger Double Three combination. As long as the internal structure of this wave remains incomplete, the end of the higher-degree Wave (IV) cannot yet be confirmed. Consequently, every bullish movement should be evaluated in terms of its internal structure, wave personality, and structural relationships before concluding that a new impulsive trend has begun.
At this stage, the most important factor is not simply where price moves next, but how it moves. The emergence of a clear five-wave impulsive advance, accompanied by a decisive breakout from the corrective channel, would significantly increase the probability that Wave (IV) has been completed. Until then, any upward movement may still prove to be corrective in nature, leaving the broader correction structurally valid.
This analysis is not a prediction of the future. It represents my structural interpretation of the market based on the rules, guidelines, and structural relationships of the Elliott Wave Principle.
What you see here is the result of years of study, research, and practical experience dedicated to understanding wave structures and the language of the market. As new waves emerge, the market continuously provides fresh information that may refine—or even reshape—the preferred wave count.
For that reason, Elliott Wave analysis is less about predicting the future and more about objectively interpreting what the market is revealing at every stage of its development.
📌 Note:
If any part of these scenarios is unclear, I encourage you to review the previous analyses attached to this publication. This study is part of an ongoing structural research project, where each analysis builds upon the foundation established by the previous ones.
🌐 Intermarket Perspective:
When appropriate, I also compare correlated and inversely correlated markets, as structural confirmation—or divergence—across related assets can provide valuable evidence in support of the preferred wave count.
Price is the outcome; Structure is the cause.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody | Elliott Wave Principle 
Long
Ethereum | Is the Major Correction Ending, or?Ethereum | Is the Major Correction Ending, or Is a More Complex Structure Still Unfolding?
Ethereum's long-term structure suggests that the market remains at one of the most critical stages of its higher-degree Wave (IV) correction. The primary question is not whether price will move higher or lower next, but whether this corrective phase is approaching completion or if the market still has another portion of its correction left to reveal.
Conservative Scenario
According to the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle, Wave W appears to have completed as a simple Zigzag, followed by Wave X as a classic Zigzag. The market is currently developing Wave Y as a Flat Correction, with its structure presently aligning with a Regular Flat. However, until Wave C is fully completed, the possibility of the pattern evolving into an Expanded Flat remains valid.
For this reason, the primary focus is on the development of a complete five-wave impulsive structure for Wave C. The behavior of this final leg will determine whether the correction concludes as a Regular Flat or extends into an Expanded Flat through a larger Wave C.
Should Wave Y complete as expected, the higher-degree Wave (IV) would likely come to an end, opening the door for the beginning of Wave (V)—a motive wave that could develop into the next major impulsive advance if the broader structural relationships remain intact.
However, if the correction is still incomplete after Wave Y finishes, the structure may continue evolving into a Triple Three (W-X-Y-X-Z). In that case, Wave Z is not restricted to a single corrective pattern. Under the Elliott Wave Principle, it may develop as a Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or any other valid corrective combination, provided the structural, time, and price relationships between W, Y, and Z remain consistent with the characteristics of the completed pattern.
Aggressive Scenario
The aggressive interpretation offers a different structural perspective.
In this scenario, Wave W is considered a completed simple Zigzag, while the rally into the previous high is labeled as Wave X. From this viewpoint, the market is now developing Wave Y.
Rather than forming a simple corrective pattern, Wave Y may evolve into a larger Double Three combination. If this scenario proves correct, the correction remains incomplete, and confirmation of the end of Wave (IV) must wait until the entire internal structure of Wave Y has fully developed.
This analysis is not a prediction of the future. It represents my structural interpretation of the market based on the rules, guidelines, and structural relationships of the Elliott Wave Principle.
What you see here is the result of seven years of study, research, and practical experience dedicated to understanding wave structures and the language of the market. As new waves emerge, the market continuously provides fresh information that may refine or even reshape the structural interpretation.
For that reason, Elliott Wave analysis is less about predicting the future and more about objectively interpreting what the market is revealing at each stage of its development.
Price is the outcome; Structure is the cause.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody | Elliott Wave Principle Short 
TRX. Is It Time to Take Profits?During the 2025–2026 bear market, TRX has been one of the strongest cryptocurrencies. In fact, it has even outperformed Bitcoin.
From the 2022 bottom, BINANCE:BTCUSDT gained around 712% at its peak and is still up roughly 305% today.
BINANCE:TRXUSDT peaked at approximately 741% and still holds a gain of about 639%.
That's an impressive performance.
However, I believe most of the bullish fundamentals are already priced in.
📊 Fundamentals
1️⃣ TRX Is No Longer Deflationary
One of my biggest long-term bullish arguments for TRX was its deflationary token model.
That changed in August 2025.
Since then, the token supply has started increasing again.
Why?
TRON reduced transaction fees and energy costs by roughly 60% to make the network cheaper.
The downside is simple: users now burn fewer TRX tokens.
Unless network activity grows fast enough to offset this, the network shifts from deflation back to inflation.
2️⃣ USDT Transfers Were a Huge Advantage... But Not Forever
TRON became the largest network for USDT transfers.
That was a major growth catalyst.
But markets price the future not the past.
Today, competition is much stronger.
BINANCE:SOLUSDT BINANCE:ARBUSDT BINANCE:BNBUSDT , and many other networks offer fast and inexpensive transactions.
Personally, I rarely use TRON for USDT transfers anymore.
Its monopoly is gone.
3️⃣ Justin Sun Remains a Risk
Almost every major headline surrounding TRON is connected to Justin Sun.
Over the past few years, he has faced multiple investigations and legal actions, including SEC allegations related to market manipulation and unregistered securities.
Whether these cases ultimately matter or not, they remain a significant headline risk.
One major negative news event could quickly pressure the price.
📉 Technical Analysis
The chart has been outstanding since late 2022. Few cryptocurrencies have maintained such a clean uptrend.
However, warning signs are finally starting to appear:
• Price is struggling below the long-term trendline.
• Weekly RSI shows a strong bearish divergence.
• Trading volume has been declining since the all-time high.
• Momentum continues to weaken.
To me, the chart suggests that the long-term uptrend is approaching exhaustion.
🎯 Conclusion
TRX has been one of the strongest coins throughout this bear market. But strength alone doesn't guarantee future returns.
Both fundamentals and technicals suggest the upside is becoming limited.
If I were holding a large TRX position, I would seriously consider taking profits.
My first downside target remains around $0.24–0.26 .
We'll reassess the outlook when price reaches that area.
_________
👉 If you want to trade like a professional and not like a gambler — follow for real insights and strategies 🚀 
Short
Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Simple Zigzag Remains the Preferred Structure# **Aggressive Scenario**
This analysis explores the aggressive scenario through the development of a **Simple Zigzag**, presenting the complete structure of this corrective pattern in accordance with the **rules and guidelines of Ralph Nelson Elliott's Wave Principle**.
Although last week's analysis highlighted the formation of **seven swings**, suggesting that the correction could be evolving into a **Double Zigzag**, the possibility still remains that the market may expand into any valid corrective pattern with greater **time, price, and structural complexity**. However, based on the current wave structure and the **personality of Bitcoin's market behavior**, the preferred interpretation continues to favor another decline.
According to the current wave count, the market is developing **Wave (1)** and **Wave (2)** of a larger-degree **Wave C**. Therefore, as long as price continues to respect the **First Price Invalidation Analysis ($82,807.3)**, this aggressive scenario remains the preferred interpretation.
Consequently, any valid corrective structure that develops as **Wave (2)** should be viewed, under the Elliott Wave Principle, as a temporary correction. Once completed, the market is expected to resume its decline in **Wave (3)**, continuing toward the downside targets identified on the chart.
As with every Elliott Wave analysis, the market itself will ultimately determine which structure unfolds. **We do not predict price; we follow the structure that the market builds.** Therefore, this analysis represents a **structural interpretation**, not a price forecast. Should market structure change or the rules of the Elliott Wave Principle be violated, the preferred wave count will be revised accordingly.
---
**— Mr. Nobody**
*Independent Elliott Wave Principle Researcher*
**"Patterns whisper. I listen."** 📊🎧
Bitcoin
4 days ago
Bitcoin 4H | Is the First Bearish Leg Complete.
Short 
Wave (IV) May Be Preparing the Next Bullish CycleBitcoin Futures (BTC1!) – Daily Chart
Aggressive Scenario: Wave (IV) May Be Preparing the Next Bullish Cycle
Based on the current market structure, the preferred wave count is derived from the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle.
The preferred interpretation suggests that the decline from the recent high is developing as Wave (IV) of a larger degree. At this stage, the correction is most likely unfolding as a Bigger Zigzag, with the market progressing through its internal a-b-c structure before Wave (IV) reaches completion.
As long as this wave count remains structurally consistent, the completion of Wave (IV) could provide the foundation for the next impulsive advance in Wave (V).
Based on the current wave structure and Fibonacci relationships, the initial objective would be the First Target Range, followed by the Target Range. If Wave (V) extends, the market could eventually reach the Expanded Target, completing another major impulsive sequence.
However, until Wave (IV) is confirmed as complete, every bullish objective should be viewed strictly as a structural scenario, rather than a price prediction. The ongoing corrective structure will determine whether Wave (IV) concludes as a relatively straightforward correction or evolves into a more complex pattern, such as a Multiple Zigzag or another valid corrective formation.
For this reason, the primary focus remains on monitoring the internal development of Wave (IV). Only after the correction is structurally complete can the probability of the next impulsive advance in Wave (V) be evaluated with greater confidence.
If the completion of Wave (IV) is confirmed, the larger bullish cycle is expected to resume. Under this scenario, Wave (V) could carry Bitcoin beyond its previous all-time high and establish a new historical high. The ultimate extent of Wave (V), however, will depend on the strength and quality of the impulsive structure emerging from the completion of Wave (IV).
This analysis presents a structural interpretation based on the Elliott Wave Principle and should not be considered a price prediction. The preferred wave count will be reassessed whenever market structure no longer supports the current interpretation.
— Mr. Nobody
Independent Elliott Wave Principle Researcher
"Patterns whisper. I listen." 📊🎧 Short 
Simple Zigzag Toward the Completion of the Corrective CycleBitcoin (BTC/USD) – Daily Chart
Aggressive Scenario: Simple Zigzag Toward the Completion of the Corrective Cycle
The aggressive scenario continues to favor the development of a Simple Zigzag (A-B-C) correction. If this structure unfolds as expected, Bitcoin could decline toward the $40,000 region before the larger corrective cycle reaches completion.
As illustrated on the chart, Wave A has already completed as a clear five-wave impulse, satisfying one of the defining characteristics of a Zigzag correction. Following that decline, Wave B developed as a Classic Zigzag, and the most recent selloff is currently interpreted as Wave (1) of Wave C.
If this wave count remains valid, the current advance is expected to unfold as Wave (2) in the form of any valid three-wave corrective structure. Once that correction is complete, the market could resume its decline in Wave (3), followed by a corrective Wave (4) before a final decline in Wave (5) completes Wave C and, consequently, the entire Simple Zigzag correction.
Under this scenario, the completion of the correction would also mark the end of the current eight-wave Elliott Wave cycle, potentially paving the way for the beginning of a new impulsive cycle. If confirmed, this new cycle could carry Bitcoin beyond its previous all-time high and establish a new historical high.
However, if the current rally extends beyond the expected corrective structure, there remains the possibility that the correction evolves into a Triple Zigzag. While this alternative still belongs to the aggressive outlook, the Simple Zigzag currently remains the preferred scenario, as it provides the most direct interpretation while remaining fully consistent with the present wave structure.
This analysis presents a structural Elliott Wave scenario, not a price prediction. The wave count remains valid as long as the Elliott Wave Principle and the current market structure continue to support it. Should the structure change, the wave count will be revised accordingly.
— Mr. Nobody
Independent Elliott Wave Principle Researcher
"Patterns whisper. I listen." 📊🎧
Bitcoin
Feb 5
Bitcoin Daily – Wave I Completed, Corrective Phase in Progress
Bitcoin
Feb 5
Bitcoin 4H – Final Leg of the Bearish Impulse (Wave 5 of 5)
Bitcoin
4 days ago
Bitcoin 4H | Is the First Bearish Leg Complete.
Short 
Short 
US Oil (WTI) – 4H Elliott Wave Update US Oil (WTI) – 4H Elliott Wave Update | Structure First, Direction Second
The overall outlook remains unchanged, and both scenarios continue to respect Elliott Wave rules and guidelines.
The recent decline is still being monitored as the completion of a corrective structure. The key question is whether this decline is finishing an Expanded Flat within a developing bullish sequence or whether it is only another corrective phase before the larger bearish trend resumes.
Aggressive Scenario
The aggressive count continues to suggest that the advance from 54.877 marked the beginning of a new impulsive sequence.
If this interpretation is correct, the current decline is completing Wave (2) as an Expanded Flat, with Wave C now approaching its final subdivisions.
Once this corrective pattern is complete, I expect an impulsive advance to develop. Any corrective pullback after that impulse would simply confirm the trend before the next bullish leg begins.
Conservative Scenario
The conservative scenario remains consistent with the larger bearish outlook presented in the Daily analysis.
In this case, the current recovery may only become another corrective structure before sellers attempt one more decline.
A decisive break below 54.877 would invalidate the aggressive count and significantly increase the probability of a larger bearish continuation.
What Matters Most
At this stage, I am not trying to predict the market.
I am waiting for the market to reveal its structure.
A clear five-wave impulsive advance would strongly favor the aggressive scenario.
However, if the recovery remains corrective and fails to develop impulsive characteristics, the conservative count will continue to carry more weight.
As always, structure comes before prediction.
This analysis is shared strictly for Elliott Wave research and educational purposes, not as financial advice.
Facts always win.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
Jun 25
US Oil – 4H Elliott Wave Update
CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
Jun 24
US Oil – Daily Elliott Wave Perspective
Long 
Ethereum 4H: Final Leg of a Larger Correction ?Ethereum 4H: Final Leg of a Larger Correction or the Beginning of the Next Bull Cycle? | Elliott Wave Analysis
Following the primary scenarios discussed on the daily chart, the 4-hour timeframe provides additional insight into the internal structure of Ethereum's ongoing correction.
From the conservative perspective, the decline labeled as wave C continues to display the characteristics of an impulsive structure. Most notably, the initial phase of this decline appears to have developed as a large Leading Diagonal, a pattern frequently observed at the beginning of major impulsive sequences.
A closer examination of the internal subdivisions reveals that the extensions of waves (3) and (5) have remained within the 61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci extension range, a behavior commonly associated with the personality of leading waves within larger impulsive structures.
There is also the possibility that the highlighted turquoise structure represents an extended third wave sequence. If the current interpretation is correct and the present decline is identified as wave (1) of a larger bearish impulse, then the market may still require one additional downward leg before the larger corrective structure is completed.
Under this interpretation, the Running Flat structure identified on the daily chart could eventually evolve into a Regular Flat, implying that Ethereum may still need to revisit lower price levels, potentially toward the $1,000-$900 region, before the larger bullish cycle begins.
However, an alternative outcome must also be considered.
If the current low marks the completion of the larger correction and the market develops a clear five-wave impulsive advance, the next expectation would be a corrective retracement against that advance. In this case, a decisive break above the wave (4) territory of the previous wave C decline would provide the first meaningful confirmation that the larger bullish cycle has begun.
Until such confirmation occurs, every corrective formation that develops following an initial advance—whether simple or complex, shallow or deep—must be evaluated carefully, as it may reinforce the possibility that one final bearish expansion remains ahead.
At present, the structure continues to respect Elliott Wave rules and guidelines. Therefore, the question is not whether Ethereum will eventually enter a major bull market, but whether the market has already completed its correction—or whether one final decline is still required before that expansion begins.
Sometimes the market's final test appears just before its greatest opportunity.
– Patterns whisper. I listen. – Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
Ethereum
2 days ago
Running Flat Correction Before a Historic Expansion? Ethereum!
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$BTC Very WEAK Bullish Divergence LESSON - Must ReadLately I’ve been seeing a ton of large accounts calling for a
CRYPTOCAP:BTC bottom because of the extremely weak bullish divergence on the Weekly chart.
This means absolutely nothing without confluence from PA, volume and other indicators-- all which are horrendous, such as volume which you can clearly see.
If PA keeps going lower, the bull div goes away, along with this silly bull-slop.
Example:
Low #1: BTC = $65,200 RSI = 27
Low #2 (today): BTC = $58,500 RSI = 32
That's a bullish RSI divergence because price made a lower low while RSI made a higher low.
But if ₿itcoin keeps falling...
Low #3: BTC = $54,000 RSI = 25
The divergence is invalidated because RSI made a lower low (25 < 27).
Bullish divergences aren't permanent. They can disappear if price and RSI continue making new lows before reversing.
The important threshold isn't the price, it's the RSI.
As long as BTC keeps making lower lows while RSI stays above ~27, the bullish divergence remains intact. If a future weekly low pushes RSI below that prior low, the divergence is no longer valid.
Please be careful with the financial advice you take from people on X and YouTube. Most of these people have very little experience with technical analysis and just shill you bull-slop for clicks. Education 
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Why is HYPE headed for a crash?Against the backdrop of a nearly year-long decline in the cryptocurrency market, BYBIT:HYPEUSDT is showing the opposite result. Since the beginning of 2026, the coin's price has only risen, and it might seem inevitable that it will fall, given the project's strength throughout the bear market.
Yes, fundamentally, the project is currently one of the strongest in the cryptocurrency market. But the market isn't driven solely by fundamentals. The price always moves where buyers run out.
📈 What's driving the growth?
The main reason for the growth is automatic buybacks.
Hyperliquid uses almost all trading fees to buy back HYPE from the market. Essentially, the higher the trading volume on this exchange, the stronger the daily buyer. This mechanism has become the main driver of the coin's growth.
But this is where the main risk lies.
🕯 Fundamentally
1️⃣ Trading Volumes
Buybacks only work as long as people are actively trading.
But if cryptocurrency is dull and boring, then why are there such high volumes on this exchange? The answer is simple: people are trading tokenized shares on this exchange. Therefore, trading volumes will remain high until the stock market finally enters a bear market.
In previous posts, I've already explained that the stock market is already starting to enter a bear market. And when a true bear market begins:
• trading volumes fall;
• fees decrease;
• daily HYPE purchases weaken significantly
In other words, the main source of demand begins to disappear.
2️⃣ Coin Unlocking
Currently, only about 34% of all HYPE tokens have been unlocked. The rest will gradually enter the market each month, increasing price pressure in the long term.
Unlocking is the moment when previously locked coins belonging to a team, investor, or fund become available for sale.
The more new coins enter the market, the greater the price pressure if demand doesn't increase.
This creates an interesting situation 🔍
Currently, the market is pricing HYPE as if trading volumes will only increase and buybacks will support the price forever. But this is not the case, and there is a limit to everything.
📊 Technical Analysis
Looking at the chart, warning signs are starting to appear for the first time in a while:
• the chart shows how volatility has increased over the past two months
• a series of lower highs has formed
• the RSI has formed a bearish divergence
• volumes have risen sharply, indicating that major players are exiting the market
• a bearish Diamond pattern is forming
• the price is moving towards the lower boundary of the ascending channel
So far, the chart only hints at a peak. A final transition to a bearish phase will occur only after the price breaks out of the Diamond pattern and the ascending channel downwards. But I dare say the project's price is at its peak.
I don't dispute that HYPE is currently one of the best fundamental projects on the market. And personally, I missed such an obvious trade 🙅♂️
But right now, everything points to the coin's price being at its all-time high.
🎯 The first downside target is $42. When that happens, I'll update my forecast.
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👉 If you want to trade like a professional and not like a gambler — follow for real insights and strategies 🚀 
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29/06/26 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $65,622.83
Last weeks low: $58,117.54
Midpoint: $61,870.19
Here's the weekly outlook for the week of June 29, 2026, with BTC at ~$59,955, clawing back the $59,993 (0.25) level after a brutal week that broke below the prior range.
Macro: Last week delivered another inflation shock. May PCE rose to 4.1% year-over-year, the highest since 2023, sealing rate-hike expectations and driving Bitcoin to a 21-month low of $58,115 before a partial recovery. Markets repriced December hike odds to roughly 77%, with BofA now expecting three 2026 hikes and Deutsche Bank reversing to two. Falling oil from the Iran de-escalation is disinflationary but hasn't helped — record ETF outflows near $3 billion over a 10-day streak and an AI/semiconductor stock selloff spilling into crypto have kept sentiment in Extreme Fear. This week brings month-start jobs data into thin July 4 holiday liquidity.
Bull case: $59,000 is the load-bearing floor so holding it and reclaiming the $61,870 midpoint is the next step, then moving up to weekly high.
Bear case: A clean break below $59,000 opens $55,000, with $52,000 in play if outflows persist. $52,000 for me would be very tempting to plan long term positions, an important HTF area to keep an eye on should the weekly low be lost.
BNB — Is a 20-30% Drop Still Ahead?Breakdown Below Support, Lower Targets in Focus
BNB is slowly breaking below key support. The $570 area previously acted as support and is now acting as resistance.
For the next move, I'd like to see another leg lower toward the $500 psychological level, which aligns well with the Fibonacci confluence such as the -0.6 fib and 1.618 fib, giving us an overall target of $503.57 and $500.
My primary downside target sits between $463.65–$438.43, suggesting there could still be another 20–25% move to the downside before a high-probability long setup develops.
Several key confluences line up in this region:
Anchored VWAP aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension around $464.65
0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $438.43
Liquidity Zone
Educational insight — Anchored VWAP:
Anchored VWAP is powerful because it represents the average price of all participants from a specific starting point, rather than just the current session. This makes it especially useful for identifying where larger market participants are likely positioned. When price repeatedly reacts to an anchored VWAP, especially when it aligns with Fibonacci levels it often signals interest zones where liquidity is being defended or distributed.
One reason I continue to rely heavily on the Anchored VWAP is its ability to identify support and resistance. In this case, it's lining up almost perfectly with the Fibonacci extension, a confluence that has already produced two clean rejections.
Overall, BNB has respected Fibonacci levels remarkably well throughout this cycle. I'll remain patient and wait for price to reach these higher-confluence zones before looking for the next long opportunity.
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