Previous Update Posted On November 23th 2020:
61.8% to 78.6 fibo level zone extended from 1st wave of correction from all time highs provides clear positive risk: reward play for a downside correction to follow with entries preferably near the extended 78.6 fibo level short BTC at around $18,035 with stops above all time highs and just below the next big figure at $20099 and final take profit targets just above the key $12,500 pivot providing a 4:1 risk reward play.
UPDATE: CL HALF AT $12,500 and REMAINDER @ $4K level
- Bullish Retail Sentiment High = Higher Probability of Contrarian Counter Shorts
- BTC valuations at $100k within a year by many analysts at banks also made same prediction for BTC to be trading at that pricepoint by this point in time
- Stronger USD likely on flight to safety as US death tolls hitting record daily rates
- Low liquidity into the upcoming Thanksgiving Holiday has typically seen vicious moves lower
- Max pain trade is to the downside not up
THE BIG SHORT (UPDATE - 10 DEC, 2020): BTC SWING SHORTS TESTING TRENDLINE SUPPORT
- Break below trendline support would confirm potential for large downside swings towards the $4k level (outlined on charts under STEEP ANGLE OF ASCENT)
FUNDAMENTAL MACRO PICTURE
Not much has changed, the outlook for the global macro economy remains grim with CB intervention being the last resort and likely the beginning of a return to trend but after some sharp downside moves.
(Report from Nov 20): Fundamentally, the Fed’s wait and see approach suggests further easing of monetary policy will most likely be in the form of coordinated CB efforts upon indications of a massive global growth slowdown. EOY GDP numbers are likely to provide a clearer picture for global growth atm and future prospects. The US economy, with GDP coming largely from consumer spending, EOY GDP and 2021 forecasts will be largely impacted by US fiscal policy – as in the breadth and depth of federally funded stimuli for both individuals and small businesses.
Monetary policy will be coordinated, swift, and broad by the US FED and other CBs in an intensive loosening effort to prop up global markets – one of the US FED’s global mandates being ensuring stability for global markets – ensures the printing presses will be running nonstop providing liquidity at unseen levels resulting in increased USD supply and concurrent downside pressure on the greenback against most other currencies. The question that remains is will US fiscal policy equal the breadth of monetary policy easing likely to ensue in 2021 as both must be in sync in order to prevent a major global economic downturn and/or standstill.
61.8% to 78.6 fibo level zone extended from 1st wave of correction from all time highs provides clear positive risk: reward play for a downside correction to follow with entries preferably near the extended 78.6 fibo level short BTC at around $18,035 with stops above all time highs and just below the next big figure at $20099 and final take profit targets just above the key $12,500 pivot providing a 4:1 risk reward play.
UPDATE: CL HALF AT $12,500 and REMAINDER @ $4K level
- Bullish Retail Sentiment High = Higher Probability of Contrarian Counter Shorts
- BTC valuations at $100k within a year by many analysts at banks also made same prediction for BTC to be trading at that pricepoint by this point in time
- Stronger USD likely on flight to safety as US death tolls hitting record daily rates
- Low liquidity into the upcoming Thanksgiving Holiday has typically seen vicious moves lower
- Max pain trade is to the downside not up
THE BIG SHORT (UPDATE - 10 DEC, 2020): BTC SWING SHORTS TESTING TRENDLINE SUPPORT
- Break below trendline support would confirm potential for large downside swings towards the $4k level (outlined on charts under STEEP ANGLE OF ASCENT)
FUNDAMENTAL MACRO PICTURE
Not much has changed, the outlook for the global macro economy remains grim with CB intervention being the last resort and likely the beginning of a return to trend but after some sharp downside moves.
(Report from Nov 20): Fundamentally, the Fed’s wait and see approach suggests further easing of monetary policy will most likely be in the form of coordinated CB efforts upon indications of a massive global growth slowdown. EOY GDP numbers are likely to provide a clearer picture for global growth atm and future prospects. The US economy, with GDP coming largely from consumer spending, EOY GDP and 2021 forecasts will be largely impacted by US fiscal policy – as in the breadth and depth of federally funded stimuli for both individuals and small businesses.
Monetary policy will be coordinated, swift, and broad by the US FED and other CBs in an intensive loosening effort to prop up global markets – one of the US FED’s global mandates being ensuring stability for global markets – ensures the printing presses will be running nonstop providing liquidity at unseen levels resulting in increased USD supply and concurrent downside pressure on the greenback against most other currencies. The question that remains is will US fiscal policy equal the breadth of monetary policy easing likely to ensue in 2021 as both must be in sync in order to prevent a major global economic downturn and/or standstill.