VincePrince

Revealing Bitcoins Expanding Cyclical Movement

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello Traders Investors And Community, hopefully, everybody is doing well in the volatile market-environment we are facing these days. Today I want to talk about an amazing fractal similarity happening the last months in bitcoins price-action and forming an expanding time-based period-regression that means that the next markdown amplitude can be larger than the last one and the one before. We are currently trading in the next markup of the third overall market-cycle you can see in the chart, normally that period of markup is followed by distribution and then finally a markdown as the past weeks and months showed and marked in my chart. The overall structure of the market-cycle events can be divided into four parts, firstly it is the accumulation, then the markup, the distribution, and the markdown, I will describe these events further:

Accumulation: In the accumulation-period we see institutional interest in bitcoins increasing and these big hedge traders buying shares before the public and retail traders are aware of a possible reversal and bullish markup to the upside. The accumulation period is most often a sideway consolidation as institutional buying at the important price support zones and building the positions there. You can see it exactly happened in the accumulation periods which are marked in my chart, the blue circle is the spring which is showing the end of the accumulation period and beginning with the bullish markup phase.

Markup: The markup-period is the period in which the price is actual trending to the upside therefore many retail and news traders rushing in the market in anticipation of further gains we can see the volume showing an exceptional shift and the momentum increases, in this period we normally see high volatility to the upside as many people rushing into the market to get there bitcoins for acceptable prices. You can see the two already completed markup-periods in the chart marked with grey-arrows and the next one currently developing. Also what is important is the size of the markups the past markup was bigger in amplitude as the one before and we can expect the current one to be bigger again.

Distribution: The distribution-period playing a significant role in terms of a possible continuation to the upside or a reversal to the downside. Typically for the distribution-period is the slow-moving sideways market also with high selling volume indicating a shift in price as you can see it in the past distribution-periods marked in my chart. The distribution confirms when the price falls below the before formed higher highs into the markdown phase. A failure of the distribution-period is possible when the price exceeds the past formed higher highs of the distribution-periods in this scenario a re-accumulation-period is possible with a next markup-phase, this scenario is meant to watch for.

Markdown: Yes this is the last period and the most devastating of them all because many traders getting stopped out and are forced to liquidated positions selling to the institutional short. Normally the institutions already sold in the distribution-period and now trying to put down the market by setting shorts and stop the retail traders out, we can watch increasing volatility in the markdown-period and normally a fall below support as it was the case in the past market-cycles. The markdown-period is also the last period of the whole cycle suggesting a possible new start of the next cycle.

The importance in the current market-cycle is shown by the high amplitude with which it is developing. When we confirm the distribution a third time we can expect an even bigger markdown than the one seen before and technically that can bring bitcoin below the 3500, therefore we would see a heavy decline and shift in price when the next markdown-period confirms. Currently, we have resistance 8200 and 9000 as you can see it marked in my chart also with the possible blue distribution-period when we don't manage to get over that level and form a re-accumulation the high probability is given that we see the next massive markdown-period and therefore even lower prices. The cycles can vary in time and length here we see an exciting phenomenon because the market-cycles growing every time bigger than the last one in time and length.

Thanks for watching and shoutout to everybody who is supporting just feel free to support with a like and follow.
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Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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Comments

Nice analysis
+2 Reply
@muqocan, Thank you
Reply
@muqocan, Appreciate it
Reply
@muqocan, You are welcome
Reply
This is what I think will happen
+2 Reply
VincePrince Darkside999
@Darkside999, Good comment
Reply
VincePrince Darkside999
@Darkside999, I am on your side, you are welcome ;)
Reply
VincePrince Darkside999
@Darkside999, All the best
Reply
Hey VInce,
I like the chart. Here was my very short outlook on what today would bring to us. take a look, leave a comment and let me know your thoughts.

+2 Reply
VincePrince Hodl4dearlife
@Hodl4dearlife, Thanks for sharing
Reply
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