sumastardon
Long

Bitcoin BTCUSD Sunday Update and buy points

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin             BTCUSD             Sunday
After breaking lower early on in London on Saturday morning Bitcoin             fell to a low at 10800 on Bitfinex feed - was meant to
fall to 10750 at least once the break came, so not too good. Even worse, no buy orders were placed anywhere near the
lowest levels...on the upside Bitcoin             had to break above 11230 to trigger the next long, looking for resistance at 11336
which then needed breaking by the bulls to trigger a rally to 11646 initially and then on up through the resistance levels above it
to an upside target at 12950. Having made that break Bitcoin             did rally to 11646 level, spent 12 hours consolidating at these
higher levels before a second surge of buying interest took it to a high overnight at 12190.
Overall, Bitcoin             is beginning to stabilise and absorb bad news by defiantly making higher lows with each new horror story to
hit the market. These are signs of underlying strength. Institutions and traders are happy to buy the dips.
Additionally, there is a bull case for calling Bitcoin             up to 15770-15957 range on the back of a massive reverse head and
shoulders formation, the neck-line of which was broken through yesterday. This pattern is a little sketchy so only the
neck-line has been drawn in here, but the break came at the 11330 level on Bitfinex and has a minimum upside target of
4625 points, so 15955 on Bitfinex...time will tell
In the nearer term Bitcoin             is unwinding an overbought condition and can come back to 11646 again and potentially
to 11500-11400 range at lowest before the rally continues. Look to buy the dip. Bitcoin             is beginning to recover - but we still look to trade this monster rather than seeking to own it outright. So long as it keeps moving we can make a lot of points by following the breaks signalled by the charts, whichever exchange you happen to use
Comment: Next Buy Point approaching...can buy on break above the upper parallel of the continuation pattern on Coinbase with stops below the parallel. Must have enough power to break above the recent high - watch how it behaves here and if it stalls for more than 3 minutes or so consider closing out and getting long again from lower or when the high has been broken

Comment: The usual conflicting signals here with Bitfinex feed showing a completely different pattern, more bearish than Coinbase right now. If long from the retest of 11646 earlier (low was actually about 11662) then can stay long but raise stops to 11739 to trap in some profit if the Bitfinex feed turns out to be right here (bearish under the parallel it has recently lost) ...if this does turn out to be the case any fall below the little dynamic holding up price now can be shorted with stops above the same line by 30 points or so on Bitfinex.
Returning to Coinbase chart and signals would like to see it hold up at 11360 on the retest to feel safer about these two conflicting signals here and on Bitfinex. So hold back on buying until we see a successful retest and if long already use a stop just a little under 11350. It's ridiculous that two charts of the same thing are giving off such different signals. A new level of surrealness reached. But they are giving conflicting signals, jusge for yourself. In circumstances we need to tread carefully, use stops and be ready for the next signal now, and which could turn bearish very quickly from here...
Comment: Those conflicting signals have got Bitcoin going nowhere today, flipping in a tight range and losing 30 points on the short. It doesn't help that there's a 330 point spread between and Coinbase and Bitfinex feeds, which is causing these conflicting signals and making the market lose direction and trade sideways - but it is hilding up well and the Coinbase chart is positive and now holding up where it was meant to 11360 to show it remained positive on this chart - and whilst it does this suggests that the next move will still be up and not down from here.
It's still a buy on retests of this level with a stop below 11300 for small loss if wrong from here.
The Bitfinex chart is looking like it needs to come back some more to 11679-11640 range and then bounce again from here - can be bought on the dip with stop close under 11650 - but if so this is quite speccy (with small stop) and depends on 11640 holding on at worst if we do see a little sell off now - alternatively, if we don't get that sell-off can buy on exit above the dynamic from the high on Bitfinex chart.
Only if 11640 gives way at any point from here will the near term picture flip back to negative again -
Comment: Bitfinex Chart
Comment: Bitstamp Feed
Comment: Typo: Stop on any long on Bitfinex needs to be under 11640 (not 11650) if looking to buy on the dip if we get it
Comment: Spike from above on 5 minute chart on Bitstamp shows it will likley come off again - but can keep buying dips and maybe selling the rally for 100 or so points for day traders..others can still buy dips ...it has to break the dynamic above from the high if trading Bitstamp - to add or for more swing traders to join the rally
Comment: Bitfinex also has spiked straight into resistance at 11906 and can come back again...day traders trading out again and hoping to buy back lower - or failing that on a break above 11906 where they sold - can follow that break or add if not long from lower already
Comment: Coinbase Feed Steady still here, patiently waiting on Bitfinex to sort itself out - in a tight range and solid whilst 11360-11300 holds out - but we need to remember it can flip to negative again if 11300 is lost here and if 11640 fails on Bitfinex
It shouldn't now. But it's Bitcoin. And if there is any bad news waiting to hit we get stopped out for small loss and then get to buy back from lower levels anyway.
Thanks !
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great analysis as always ....thx :)
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