After breaking lower early on in London on Saturday morning Bitcoin fell to a low at 10800 on Bitfinex feed - was meant to
fall to 10750 at least once the break came, so not too good. Even worse, no buy orders were placed anywhere near the
lowest levels...on the upside Bitcoin had to break above 11230 to trigger the next long, looking for resistance at 11336
which then needed breaking by the bulls to trigger a rally to 11646 initially and then on up through the resistance levels above it
to an upside target at 12950. Having made that break Bitcoin did rally to 11646 level, spent 12 hours consolidating at these
higher levels before a second surge of buying interest took it to a high overnight at 12190.
Overall, Bitcoin is beginning to stabilise and absorb bad news by defiantly making higher lows with each new horror story to
hit the market. These are signs of underlying strength. Institutions and traders are happy to buy the dips.
Additionally, there is a bull case for calling Bitcoin up to 15770-15957 range on the back of a massive reverse head and
shoulders formation, the neck-line of which was broken through yesterday. This pattern is a little sketchy so only the
neck-line has been drawn in here, but the break came at the 11330 level on Bitfinex and has a minimum upside target of
4625 points, so 15955 on Bitfinex...time will tell
In the nearer term Bitcoin is unwinding an overbought condition and can come back to 11646 again and potentially
to 11500-11400 range at lowest before the rally continues. Look to buy the dip. Bitcoin is beginning to recover - but we still look to trade this monster rather than seeking to own it outright. So long as it keeps moving we can make a lot of points by following the breaks signalled by the charts, whichever exchange you happen to use
Returning to Coinbase chart and signals would like to see it hold up at 11360 on the retest to feel safer about these two conflicting signals here and on Bitfinex. So hold back on buying until we see a successful retest and if long already use a stop just a little under 11350. It's ridiculous that two charts of the same thing are giving off such different signals. A new level of surrealness reached. But they are giving conflicting signals, jusge for yourself. In circumstances we need to tread carefully, use stops and be ready for the next signal now, and which could turn bearish very quickly from here...
It's still a buy on retests of this level with a stop below 11300 for small loss if wrong from here.
The Bitfinex chart is looking like it needs to come back some more to 11679-11640 range and then bounce again from here - can be bought on the dip with stop close under 11650 - but if so this is quite speccy (with small stop) and depends on 11640 holding on at worst if we do see a little sell off now - alternatively, if we don't get that sell-off can buy on exit above the dynamic from the high on Bitfinex chart.
Only if 11640 gives way at any point from here will the near term picture flip back to negative again -
It shouldn't now. But it's Bitcoin. And if there is any bad news waiting to hit we get stopped out for small loss and then get to buy back from lower levels anyway.