Can Bitcoin be used as a payment currency?

It dropped 18%, strong 15%, more than $3 billion. If this were the US dollar, I'm sure no one would be using it as a reserve currency anymore, but there are a lot of people claiming that they can accept bitcoin as a payment currency. I don't quite understand the logic. Yesterday, the US Treasury Secretary asked a similar question, causing a flurry of Bitcoin.

Although the market still looks bullish, this may just be a washout in a bull market. But I think it should be a wake-up call for those crazy speculators.

Of course, if you are a true believer, you can ignore the following analysis.

As a new thing, it will experience the stage from germination to maturity. But not every new thing has a chance to mature. In the thousands of years of human development, many "new things" may die in the bud. So today's digital currency, can mature, is still a big unknown.

Although the market is very strong right now, with a market value of more than $1 trillion, Bitcoin is a true giant; Although there are numerous "institutions" involved, there are "richest people" support. But the core of Bitcoin is to fight against the existing financial system. Maybe a lot of people come here for the purpose of speculation, but this is like a revolution.

When a revolution stumbles, only the staunchest believers persist, and most end up on the wall.



If Bitcoin is used as a payment tool, its stability becomes the biggest serious injury. How can a regular "waterfall" target be adopted by large organizations? If you go to buy a Tesla, yesterday you put down a deposit with 1 bitcoin, today, the car dealer says to you, sorry, bitcoin has fallen too much, you need to pay 2 bitcoin. What do you think?

What would you do if you were a merchant and the goods that came in for 1 bitcoin yesterday were only worth 0.5 bitcoins today?

For digital currencies, there is a long and bumpy road ahead if they hope to become the anchor of a new financial system.

In fact, I have not denied the value of Bitcoin, but I think that Bitcoin should keep the final design of Satoshi Nakamoto, rather than like now, to become the paradise of speculators.

All this may look good, but for Bitcoin, and for digital currencies, it could be disastrous.

Just like China in 2018, a large number of gray funds entered the currency market and used ICOs to launder money, creating a financial Ponzi. Eventually, the Chinese government stepped in and expelled the exchange. It created a two-year bear market.

This time, if the United States follows China's lead and imposes a heavy hand, it could put Bitcoin on the spot again.

Don't assume that Bitcoin is safe just because financial institutions are involved, because financial institutions are not governments and do not represent authorities. They are only after profit, and in this cruel competitive game, they are not the big winners. How many investment banks were on the verge of bankruptcy in 2008? How smart were they when faced with a financial Ponzi (check out Bernard Lawrence Madoff for those who don't)?



For speculators, charts have become the most important trading tool in a market with few fundamental references. So Bitcoin is easy to copy history, and periodic "waterfall" is the biggest feature of Bitcoin.

As I mentioned in my last post, there is a strong technical need for adjustment, although we see that the top divergence is not taking place as expected. But with Bitcoin, which has doubled in three months, the adjustment pressure has not abated. So I also suggest to the reader, it is important to note here, even if the departure disappears, it is not careless. Yesterday's drop, though, was influenced by news, but technically, we also saw the formation of a 4 - or 6-hour divergence, and the technical break was the main cause.

Now look, here is replicating the K line of January 4th, but whether it can continue up, new high, please don't jump to conclusions. Looking at the MACD, if the MACD forms a dead fork, the correction may just be beginning.

Be in awe of this market. Bitcoin is nothing bad, but even the best things can lose their original meaning if they are used by people with ulterior motives.