BTC USD 15 min - It's about time to choose direction

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
After a very nice recovery from the 30k area to the 40K high area, we could have expected some resistance at the area we are trading now. That's no rocket science. Hence we are witnessing that resistance in play right now.

It's always a bit 'wait and see' which tradeable pattern eventually unfolds (sometimes a viable looking setup morphs into another slightly larger one ). This looks like a maturing TA setup though, which is about to get ready to being played. I do see again a potential ishs popping up, but after a personally quite incomprehensible mishap last weekend going into Monday as well, I am cautious to sound all to bullish . The market has not chosen direction yet, and not released too many clues either. Breach of the neckline counts as a confirmation for a bullish continuation.

Neutral stance for now with a tiny bullish bias. I admit the latter. ;-) I am human.

I will provide (or will try to do so) more info going forward through updating this idea. That's something I feel like doing, something that suits me fine from a personal point of view. And maybe I can act as an extra pair of eyes to someone around here. Like many members do with regard to me.

Happy and safe trading fellows!

Comment: It's time for bulls to hold ground. They probably will make a bounce

Comment: : Ideal spot to anticipate for long. Tight stop, when stopped out you can get back in later. You got to shed some skin in the game, just make sure you are not getting beheaded.
Comment: Only a small bounce it was, sadly.

Then some quite irritating hanging right under the crucial level, so you hang on to take into account a possible stretch/undershoot. Pretty common in btc. It's actually the most nasty price action entry stop loss wise.

Eventually we went substantially lower, then a retest and we are still trading under first support now acting as resistance.

Comment: It's not that I am certain we are going further down but this is not the greatest of setup for bulls. Caution.
Comment: Back above the red horizontal line (visible in last snapshot) in a rather swift and confident manner, and it is highly likely bull again. That line is my key reference point now as we speak to enter the market once again.
Comment: Zoom out 1h frame, some ST lines wiped, more oversight on a cleaner board.

Comment: Okay I see it, now they gonna fight it nasty @this level as well. It's one of those days, Friday of course.
Comment: Appears to hold. I put 'appear' between ' '. Should be okay DYODD
Comment: Support has hold, I expect some symmetry in play ('wave' 3 more or less the same features as 'wave' 1) ,with maybe a retest of that under line. Then solution. Its quite clear both a break to the upside or the downside are playable.
Comment: 4h zoom, where are we now?

Comment: By the way the possibility of a inverse shs in play still can not be ruled out. Not at all...
Comment: Going fast now. Crucial intermediary point.

Comment: My bullish bias grows.
Comment: Still triangle formation.

Slowly building...
Comment: Building on wave symmetry as well.
Comment: Zoom out 4h

Under the next red line bulls might have a problem imo, Bollinger 4h is slightly under triangle formation. Could prove support even if we are trading at that point slightly under the triangle. Bollinger bands are sooo important to give that extra signal.

Comment: Promising

Not the easiest of markets right now
4h Bollinger has held. Triangle still in play.
Comment: 15 min zoom in. Not too bad

Comment: 4h zoom out. Not too bad but triangle MUST hold for bulls. Otherwise sell-off

Comment: It's a potential shs triangle formation, so the odds of a sell-off in play when leaving the triangular formation on the downside are huge.
Comment: Zoom out Daily

Super simple snapshot. Triangle formation clearly visible here. Ma20 acting as support. Whoever is 'convinced' a drop to 27k is impossible (Bollinger ma50), is losing it by not being objective anymore. Sorry to tell them, crystal balls do not work.

For now still in that triangle. When we drop out of it, we could (very likely) see some heavy price action.
Comment: Zoom in 15 minutes

Some nice plays of support and resistance, but with regard to medium term direction, you can not find much clues if any.
Comment: 1h as I prepare for the coming day(s), trying to calculate some important zones by simple trendline drawing. Rsi is not of any assistance at the moment.

Large shoulder head shoulder like formation visible. Not an easy neckline. Neckline is a broad zone in a way, so it probably will not be easy to find a clear and neat entry when breaking down (when you want to sell the market).
Comment: Just checked out this Idea from Tradingshot and I agree with this possibility and you see it's really worth it to try to establish a short position. You see in the analogy after a first quite steep drop a strong retest occurring, then further down. You cannot copy past the past into the present but these are phenomena that do happen quite frequently. It can certainly act as a guideline or something to at least keep in mind.

Comment: A break of purple could lead us to orange. Above orange the bulls have likely won this consolidation battle. This will be quite a fight.

Comment: Above horizontal green and we 80 percent likely visit orange.

Comment: Zoom in 5

Bollinger ma50 confluence

Comment: You risk 200 dollars per btc (non leveraged I speak) on this trade with a super high potential towards orange and maybe beyond that.
Comment: Lift off. Green is broken, orange is the target. (ST trade was a bit of a peculiar thing I will clarify later)
Comment: Zoom in 5

Retest? Every level is full of fake outs at the moment. It's really triangular consolidation. textbook it should go up now.

Comment: 1h update

You see how difficult it is to work inside a triangle with regard to ST targets. Apparently a retest of purple was in play. The break of green did not do anything in terms of the acceleration towards orange I honestly had expected. Now again around that green line, orange still above us. Still in the triangle nowhere near a solution. It is what it is...

Comment: Even without an upwards break above orange occurring (I don't rule that out at all to be clear), it is most suitable - from the perspective of building a neat pattern - that orange is touched one more time at least. That is the higher probability of things imo.
Comment: Metal Molly. Orange can be hard.

"Orange can be hard, sometimes she knows
Orange is the way the summer blows
Orange can be hard, orange can be hard, sometimes she knows."

It's a song from my youth, a Belgian band so probably unknown to most. It's nice though.

Now come on now BTC! :-)
Comment: On Binance Orange was touched

Resolution comes nearer and nearer. This is sooo huge.
Comment: Little zoom out (same 1h frame) for some more perspective:

Comment: Zoom in 15

Price trading in a channel (I would call it some sort of 'secondary' pattern within the larger triangle. If it breaks we sail to the underside of the triangle (where a bounce could be expected). At least that would be the likely outcome.

The channel could very well bring us to the upperside of the triangle as well. But it is a fragile pattern in a way. A MT solution is coming nearer and nearer but this kind of waiting mode could very well take multiple hours to resolve.
Comment: Super dangerous ST

I think this is going underside triangle DYODD
Comment: It did. It has fond some support but still hanging in under. Not much room anymore anyway, in that triangle or whatever you name it. It's really coming close, a big big move.
Comment: The amount of symmetry here is really astonishing.

My original idea was about a possible inverse shoulder head shoulder pattern in play.

Now look at yellow (both neckline as shoulderline). An inverse shs still is a plausible possibility, but the shoulder symmetry has worked out (totally) differently than I had visualized it. Yeah it's a mistake of me (in hindsight).

So we have a large shs, potential megaphone (broadening wedge), a triangle AND an ishs in play. That's a lot of things that has 'morphed' into one setup.
Comment: BIG time caution for bulls now

Comment: This could be the start of a major sell off. It's a little bit too early to use those bog words maybe, but this does not look good at all to me from a MT bull perspective. Bulls need to get to work now and revert this asap.
Comment: On Stamp there still is some room (confluence red yellow under). That really is the last station where bulls can get their act together.

By the way, I like using Binance and Stamp together, those two together gives better insight than just one.
Comment: Bulls still in defensive mode. yellow - red confluence under still the last resort before I expect a major sell off

Comment: Zoom 3min

EXACT bounce on yellow red confluence. Long for who dares, après nous la deluge
Comment: 15min chart

Clear triple rsi divergence, clear bounce. Too early to read much into it but fresh longs I would definitely run.


makes sense! thank you for the confirmation!
+1 Reply
W0lfRAider TheSignalyst
@TheSignalyst, I would say you are very welcome, weren't it for the fact it