BITCOIN When Parabolas break.. Are we in an early 2018 scenario?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
First of all let me start off by saying that I don't want to spook anybody with this post. You all know my long-term thesis on Bitcoin and how big of an enthusiastic investor I am. I just want to bring to the public the similarities of today and the late 2017/ early 2018 price action, in the whole context of the parabolic activity. Thus, I will keep it simple without much analysis as all I am interested it is to know your opinion about it.

** Comparison purposes **
To begin with, this comparison is between the 4H time-frame (today) and the 1D time-frame (2017/2018). I am stating this now in order to prevent the comments section to be flooded with "You are comparing different time-frames" comments. Yes they are different and this is why even if the current Parabola breaks, it doesn't mean that Bitcoin is doomed again (we get those comments pretty often when a decline occurs), as we'd still be within a Bull Cycle (in fact we are still at the beginning of the Greater Parabolic Phase, I've covered this aspect on previous studies) having a healthy correction. The purpose of this post is to compare the behavior of a Parabola and see which conditions can cause a breaking.

** 4H against 1D time-frame **
So, the left chart is on the 4H time-frame using the MA100 (blue trend-line) and the MA400 (orange trend-line), while the chart on the right is on the 1D time-frame using the MA50 (blue trend-line) and the MA200 (orange trend-line). I doubled the MA periods on the 4H chart as being lower than 1D we had to extend the length. Also it explains why there should be no worry, as the current Parabola (4H) is a mini sequence within a Bull Cycle, while the 2017 one (1D) was the last, most aggressive year of the Bull Cycle itself. The chart comparison had to be on an analogous basis (proportionate).

What this shows is that during the 2017 Parabola, the 1D MA50 was offering a fair entry level during the whole move (even when it broke), it got quickly bought back, while the 1D MA200 was never crossed, up until the Parabola broke. The break-out of the Parabola started by breaking a Triangle at the top downwards.

On the current Parabola, the 4H MA100 has also be offering a fair entry level, similar to the 1D MA50 of 2017, while the 4H MA400 hasn't been crossed yet (not since Oct 09, 2020 and the start of the Parabolic Move), similar to the 1D MA200 f 2017. The Triangle has also been formed but hasn't been broken yet upwards nor downwards.

** Conclusion **
So what do all these mean? One can argue using this comparison that if the Triangle breaks, then we have our local top and the Parabola ends. A 4H MA400 contact will simply confirm that later. However even in the event of a 4H MA400 contact (orange trend-line on the left chart), which would be roughly a -40% decline from the top around $25000, that would still be within the limits of "normal behavior" during a Bull Cycle, as I've analyzed in a previous study (see below):

But what do you think? Is the current Parabola similar to the 2017 one (analogically)? And if so, is it time to break and will a break-out from the Triangle confirm it? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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+2 Reply
@Astael, Thank you for the generous donation!
The entire Bitcoin rally has been occurring during a DXY down trend (see DXY trend since Sep25). The DXY has spiked up now and it will be this - that will break/ or make Bitcoin's progress. Do you have any TA on the DXY pls.
Thanks Harvey
+10 Reply
TradingShot harveybains146
@harveybains146, I think that's what you are referring to:

What is your opinion on it?
+11 Reply
harveybains146 TradingShot
@TradingShot, I'll study it later today and come back too if I have any thoughts. Gold & Silver are at a crossroads also - as they too Dxy Riders.
Gold is an old market with lots of wise heads and investors and so maybe they are the market to follow for second guessing the Dxy
+2 Reply
LTSInvestor harveybains146
@harveybains146, Gold and Silver are even more beholden to treasury and bond yields. When they rise, they hold back gold & silver (which lately has been the case). So, if we are in a reflationary environment, then that will hold back PMs. If however, it turns out to be a deflationary environment, then the PMs will rally. Only time will tell, but currently, most are on the 'reflation' side of things. That being said, given the recent employment and retail data, it looks like some of the reflation trades might be unwound unless Biden rolls out some big infrastructure bill and cuts student loans. That will really STIMULATE the economy.
+2 Reply
alienteck harveybains146
Gold and Silver are heavily manipulated the primary reason for interest in BTC.. In fact I would prefer to invest in Gold other wise.. But coins like BTC are like the internet of the 90's.. just starting out and in a decade we wont recognize the world in how we do things. In 2 decades I think coins and block chains etc will do what the internet and cell phones have done to the world..
+5 Reply
@alienteck, Maybe that Bitcoin may be able to something Gold/SIlver isn't able to do (due to Comex and paper trading markets which has token a lot inflows that Gold would have otherwise got). Everybody in Cryptoland knows that's Bitcoin is something you own and is in your own (phone/pc) crypto wallet. Gold paper investors don't know the risk they are in. It only takes the Fund or one of the counterparties to go down and they would be left with just worthless paper.
DrStein TradingShot
@TradingShot, you were not reffering to me but...this is brilliant! Thanks!
+1 Reply
@DrStein, You're welcome! It is an interesting correlation indeed.
+1 Reply
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