BTC is currently stuck in a falling but bullish wedge that will take the price to test long term falling trendline from 20k, at $5600. Thus completing the right shoulder of the big inverse H&S . This is a higher risk trade based on chart patterns and volume analysis. Exercise caution. Set tight stop losses.
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And there’s the big green candle!
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Chances are that it will move sideways for another day and half or so. As long as we close this week above $3765 then it’s still bullish. Too soon for another leg up, tomorrow with new weekly candle it’s game on.
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Hey guys, I have been away on holidays but I am back now. Idea is still valid, I thought we would go up sooner, but I guess because of the holidays we did not. We should still be headed toward $5600.
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$3775 is an important support and it must hold. If it does, clear path upwards until $5000.
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Support at $3775 held, now that bearish wedge I showed in the main post has turned into an ugly bullish pennant.
It’s a bullish pennant so odds are that it will break up, but’s it’s ugly. Needs to happen soon. The 20-ma is now at $3810 on the daily, and I really don’t want to see price closing the day below this. At the same time a bullish pennant can be seen on the weekly chart.
Now we can see that the 20-ma in the weekly is around $5500 while the falling trendline even below that the longer the breakout takes the target decreases. $5600 is going to be very complex now, but we’ll examine it when we get near it, no point in doing so now. Also, I would like the breakout to occur as soon as possible to have a healthy inverse H&S on the daily (not looking so good either so far) but at this point it’s possible that it will wait for a new weekly candle before moving up (let’s hope not).
It’s a bullish pennant so odds are that it will break up, but’s it’s ugly. Needs to happen soon. The 20-ma is now at $3810 on the daily, and I really don’t want to see price closing the day below this. At the same time a bullish pennant can be seen on the weekly chart.
Now we can see that the 20-ma in the weekly is around $5500 while the falling trendline even below that the longer the breakout takes the target decreases. $5600 is going to be very complex now, but we’ll examine it when we get near it, no point in doing so now. Also, I would like the breakout to occur as soon as possible to have a healthy inverse H&S on the daily (not looking so good either so far) but at this point it’s possible that it will wait for a new weekly candle before moving up (let’s hope not).
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Sorry I meant the bullish wedge that I showed in the main post, not bearish.
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Glad it went up but not sure what to make of this. Volume is too low, for a breakout it should have been higher. Also for a breakout I would have preferred making a higher higher above $4225, this is too low. If it’s a bart move, then it could fall and be a fake-out. One thing for sure, if it falls back from here the inverse H&S will be invalidated. We really need to make a higher high above $4225 very soon or things could get real ugly.
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Currently moving inside a bull flag.
Also, the target has been reduced to around $5200 (taking quite a bit and the falling trendline and weekly 50-ma have come down).
The longer it takes, the lower the target it gets. Regardless of what is the $ price of BTC when it makes contact with the 50-ma on the weekly, at the moment the moving average is also lining up with the falling trendline since December 16th 2017. therefore that is going to be one ugly resistance and one that I will try to short when contact is made, again, regardless of what the $ price will be at that point in time.
Also, the target has been reduced to around $5200 (taking quite a bit and the falling trendline and weekly 50-ma have come down).
The longer it takes, the lower the target it gets. Regardless of what is the $ price of BTC when it makes contact with the 50-ma on the weekly, at the moment the moving average is also lining up with the falling trendline since December 16th 2017. therefore that is going to be one ugly resistance and one that I will try to short when contact is made, again, regardless of what the $ price will be at that point in time.
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Took a step back yesterday to reflect. I noticed this interesting fact. In bitcoin's history, BTC never closed more than 5 consecutive months in red. The last time BTC saw 5 months closing in red consecutively, price was $20 and corrected to $1.70 (from July 2011 - Nov 2011). I'm beginning to think that I had the right idea, but wrong timeline. I am still thinking that we will reach > 5k and then drop but still close the month in green. January opened around $3700 so I don't think we will fall beneath that level any time soon.
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It's becoming really really hard to know what's going on. BTC is lacking conviction. While most ALTS are pushing up. The total crypto market without BTC is making a bull pennant
Total crypto marketcap with BTC is making a inverse H&S stuck at the neckline
BTC hourly chart a potential BART move
If BTC breaks up then the inverse H&S will play out with target around $5300
If it breaks down then first real support is around $3600. If this one holds then maybe we can try to go up again otherwise I am thinking something like this could happen:
Look, I'll be honest. I am not a fan of giving both an upward direction and downward direction. That's just too easy. However, at the moment it's extremely hard to predict a direction since there are many mixed signals. For example, last BTC jump happened on low price which is bearish, shorts are down down and longs are up, another bearish signal. However, the total crypto marketcap and BTC patterns tells us that there is room to go up. At the moment I am not seeing much convinction so it's possible that the bart move happens. Hopefully $3800 holds, if no $3600 needs to hold. If they get taken out then chances are we test the bottom again.
Total crypto marketcap with BTC is making a inverse H&S stuck at the neckline
BTC hourly chart a potential BART move
If BTC breaks up then the inverse H&S will play out with target around $5300
If it breaks down then first real support is around $3600. If this one holds then maybe we can try to go up again otherwise I am thinking something like this could happen:
Look, I'll be honest. I am not a fan of giving both an upward direction and downward direction. That's just too easy. However, at the moment it's extremely hard to predict a direction since there are many mixed signals. For example, last BTC jump happened on low price which is bearish, shorts are down down and longs are up, another bearish signal. However, the total crypto marketcap and BTC patterns tells us that there is room to go up. At the moment I am not seeing much convinction so it's possible that the bart move happens. Hopefully $3800 holds, if no $3600 needs to hold. If they get taken out then chances are we test the bottom again.
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Bart occurred, but I thought we'd stay a couple of days at $3800 before moving down. That was way too fast. It's possible we go up from here a bit before dropping again.
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$3600 broke, which in my opinion should have caused a bigger dump to around $3350, however only a $100 (barely) dump. Doesn’t make much sense, so it’s provably a bear trap and price should recover to around $3750 from here. But BTC is too manipulated this past week, price action is weird, almost as trying to shake out both bears and bulls day after day. I can’t predict manipulation, while TA says we should test the 200-ma on the weekly ($3250) or the 50-ma on the monthly ($3030), my gut says we will see a rally to $3750. Volume is too low and it’s allowing for too much manipulation. It’s irritating to say the least.
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Well my gut was right and there was a rally, volume is not great and the push seems to have lost some steam even before reaching a resistance at $3735.
Now, if price breaks the blue channel but doesn't dump this could be yet another bart move that will takes us back down. If prices breaks the channel upward but doesn't make it through the resistance at $3735 repeatedly then odds are it will drop after some brief consolidation. The only way for this to be bullish is to decisively break $3735, make a bull flag while still holding $3735 and then up again.
Now, if price breaks the blue channel but doesn't dump this could be yet another bart move that will takes us back down. If prices breaks the channel upward but doesn't make it through the resistance at $3735 repeatedly then odds are it will drop after some brief consolidation. The only way for this to be bullish is to decisively break $3735, make a bull flag while still holding $3735 and then up again.
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