Bitcoin - Ignore the fear, trade the probabilities.

The above 3-day chart is fascinating. So much going on.

Two dates, March 10th 2020 and October 18th 2020. On both occasions price action touched support and reacted with explosive movements to the upside, 145% and 460%, respectively.

Price action is now approaching the same trend line within a bullish falling wedge pattern. Support is expected to be tested by July 20th.

Laterally as price action approaches support RSI and MFI resistance breaks out - fantastic.

Given how price action reacted to this support previously I think it is very unlikely it is broken in the weeks ahead. Confluence with the oscillator breakouts increases my confidence of a probable move to the upside.

Ignore the fear, trade the probabilities.

WW

Comment:

On the daily chart below 4 points of resistance are shown as price action approaches strong support (the above 3-day chart trend line). 5-days at most remaining until a direction is decided (shaded area).

Which direction? The bullish divergence remains intact, lower lows in price action versus higher lows in the oscillators.

Can price action fall further <$30k? unlikely - look left, recent falls to $31.5k were snapped up. No harm having a buy order there nonetheless.

If a upside breakout we can expect price action to move rapidly to the $44k area, hence why I'd not bother trying to time a entry around $31.5k.

Trade active:

Don't often pay attention to the lower time frames but I think this 4-hour chart is worth some study in combination with the idea above as the support trend line is approached.

Clearly a significant move is about to occur from the symmetrical triangle formation that is currently encapsulating price action.

Price action has moved to the upper half of the Bollinger Band and the mouth is expanding, this is a bullish move. Especially as the oscillators are printing higher lows, both on the 4-hr and the daily charts.

Target is $38.4k

Trade active:

Now or never. Price action lands on support. The next 6 days will determine the next 6 months. Support, all good. Break below with confirmation of resistance, the stuff of nightmares for bulls.

Always looks left - look how price action reacted to this support.

There's another very interesting support, I'll post against shortly.

Comment:

The trend above has its own importance. However there's an even longer more important trend line converging at this apex. The trend line below shows critical support and resistance for the last 9 years of price action.

Support can be tested up and until August 10th.

Trade closed manually:

Closing this idea for now, I think the point is made. Which was was to show the importance of ignoring fear and paying attention to trading probabilities.

Price action was approaching strong support on a trend line with 11 years of history, it was highly probable price action would make a strong bounce.