This week we've gone from 12k to 10k, bitcoin got dumped hard with no relief bounces at all. Which arises the question; we're are the damn buyers??
Lets begin with the rally from 9.4K we double bottomed and got an Adam & Eve pattern. The pattern with a neckline at 11K gave us a upward rally with prox. target of 12.8K. We came far but never made it there.
Reasons we have not made it there are trendline of previous tops, although we had some fakouts above it we never had consecutive closes above the trendline. Other reason is tons and tons of sell orders at 12.2-12K, might have to do something with the selling of the PLUS token scheme, that are still rumors though but be aware. For now we can assume 12K will be the strongest resistence in our way to 13.8K.
Although this rally did not make new highs we saw the volume picking up again after the bottom at 9.4K which is ussually a good sign.
Alright now lets look at the possible future of btc. This downward rally has just been one big dump, we did not react to any MA, EMA, Neckline or Trendline. The only thing we saw was short sideways movement with a pattern forming, either a channel (bear flag) or a sym. triangle all of them have broken downside...
Since we have not seen any buyers step in or any big green candle reaction from a level we have no reason to beleive this downtrend is totally over.
But this does not mean we should sell or short here. With the 4h Rsi at 16 = very very oversold, 1h Rsi diverging, we should expect a bottom structure to setup. Buying or longing when a bottom forms have a higher probabillity rate right now, it does mean counter trading the market but in this case that option is safer. Here is why;
-first we have not seen any liquidation runs, no short liq. yet very suprising that the market makers are just letting the late short sellers live this is not normal for bitcoin, it means we are looking for a move up to liq. the lev. 50x and even 25x short sellers.
-We are approaching support zone at 10-9.8K
-Fear/greed indicator is at freaking 11 Fear, always countertrade the fear.
-100MA Daily approaching, at 9700 right now.
Lets begin with the rally from 9.4K we double bottomed and got an Adam & Eve pattern. The pattern with a neckline at 11K gave us a upward rally with prox. target of 12.8K. We came far but never made it there.
Reasons we have not made it there are trendline of previous tops, although we had some fakouts above it we never had consecutive closes above the trendline. Other reason is tons and tons of sell orders at 12.2-12K, might have to do something with the selling of the PLUS token scheme, that are still rumors though but be aware. For now we can assume 12K will be the strongest resistence in our way to 13.8K.
Although this rally did not make new highs we saw the volume picking up again after the bottom at 9.4K which is ussually a good sign.
Alright now lets look at the possible future of btc. This downward rally has just been one big dump, we did not react to any MA, EMA, Neckline or Trendline. The only thing we saw was short sideways movement with a pattern forming, either a channel (bear flag) or a sym. triangle all of them have broken downside...
Since we have not seen any buyers step in or any big green candle reaction from a level we have no reason to beleive this downtrend is totally over.
But this does not mean we should sell or short here. With the 4h Rsi at 16 = very very oversold, 1h Rsi diverging, we should expect a bottom structure to setup. Buying or longing when a bottom forms have a higher probabillity rate right now, it does mean counter trading the market but in this case that option is safer. Here is why;
-first we have not seen any liquidation runs, no short liq. yet very suprising that the market makers are just letting the late short sellers live this is not normal for bitcoin, it means we are looking for a move up to liq. the lev. 50x and even 25x short sellers.
-We are approaching support zone at 10-9.8K
-Fear/greed indicator is at freaking 11 Fear, always countertrade the fear.
-100MA Daily approaching, at 9700 right now.
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On the 1h there is bullish div. on the rsi. We could see a bounce to previous support, s/r flip at 9600.
If we do not hold the 10K level or do not get at least a rally upwards, next level of support is at 9.6-9.4K
If we do not hold the 10K level or do not get at least a rally upwards, next level of support is at 9.6-9.4K
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To have the best entry for a short or a long you want to enter on a liquidation wick. In the chart below they are marked, on the chart there is a indicator that signals those runs/spots.
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We have first bounce on the 100ma D. Something about this move does not feel right, we've never seen anything like this in past year. We either go down very hard after we break the 9K level or this was to shake out weak hands before going higher.
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