2018.03.30 Bitcoin's Last Stand @ $5.8-5.6k (BTC, 4hr)

The bullish possibility with BTC last week was finally disproved, with BTC retracing past $7.2k. Bulls will have to wait a bit longer (I am a long-term bull.)

All paths are now converging on the $5.8-5.6k region, where Bitcoin will make a last stand. A close below $5k would mean $3k is the likely next stop, which actually looks feasible for the W-X-Y on the 1-Day chart (below).

Digging a bit deeper, the wave (iv) retrace could have gone as high as $8.2k, but the current shallow retrace aligns with the alternation theory with wave (ii). We will know when it heads back down once we cross $6.6k.

BTC 1-Day chart:

Comment:

Cliff Notes:

Drop past $6.6k = $5.8k target
Drop past $5k = $3k target
Drop past $1.7k = booted back to square one, price-wise
Rise past $8.2k = Bulls are back; TBD

Comment:

The story still stands. Bulls successfully defended $6.6k, leading to a bounce, but identified as still in corrective mode of the overall trend down. We are back in $6.6k region, and it should not hold this time.

$5.8k fight should happen in around a day or so from now.

Trade closed manually:

Target did not materialize and fundamentally, sentiment has shifted.

Perhaps the drop to 6.4k range on 4/1 was the drop we were waiting for, and never reached 5.8k.

We break out of bearish zones by reaching mid-7,000's. We shall see what happens, but this story has concluded.