Anpu

Bitcoin | Bullish or Bearish?

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This idea is build on a Graphical Analysis. Let's consider why.

Commonly when we do analysis we use indicators, oscillators, looking for any formation patterns and so on, but not this time. This time we should not trust them!

Start with indicators and oscillators which are used for determing the end or the reverse of the current trend. All of them work by this principle "using the preceding datas" whether the price or volumes or just take the average closing price of a currency pair for the last 'X' number of periods in case with MA. Some of them do very difficult calculations between these parameters.
Simple mind: if prior datas are improper, their work will be incorrect. This is our case because we can't use preceding datas in current situation. Price were flatting for 5 days and after that we saw $200 down and $200 up movements and if we allow oscillators and indicators to use these datas to indicate on the next possible move they will onlu confuse us.

We finished with indicators and oscillators and now all that left is a Graphical Analysis. Despite this sounds like the clue to the save. We should be cautious with this tactic.
Graphical Analysis helps us to predict next possible move by finding formation patterns and using resistance and support lines to detect behavior of the price. In this interesting case we can't use any formation patterns like a sign to something. The reason for not doing it: as we see on the Chart - a Trading Range has been formed between Resistance and Support zones. Jack D. Schwager noticed that formations formed inside a Trading Range are not so effective. So we will operate with more simple elements (doesn't mean they are less useful).


We have four important levels (and zones):
1 - Resistance Zone
2 - Local Resistance Level
3 - Support Zone
4 - Support Level (black line)

Local Resistance Level turned strong enough to restrain the price under the line, we need to break out and consolidate above this level to set the new route to the Resistance Zone that might be broken on the 3rd time. (if not - we can return to the Local Resistance Level that might become the Local Support Level or go further to the Support Zone in this case we can see a bounce or a breakout, will depend on the behavior of the price)

Support Level is a really good sign that shows us we are growing, slowly but growing and it's been tested 3 times and there were not breakdowns. This level is the strong level. Chances we break down from this line are not high, but in case we do there is a Support Zone which can hold the price from going down. (telling this I also would like to say that we can go deep further because everything might be possible in Crypto, all we have to do it's always be ready to all scenarios and check the market for the new sign that will help us to clear up the situation)

Finally: I think all of you saw the descending triangle is forming on a bigger timeframe and maybe we should wait until the breakout to any direction is confirmed before taking any actions. Also don't forget about important events that are coming and will come in the future and how they influence on the market. Sometimes it can help you to figure out what is going on much more than Technical Analysis.

Thank You for coming here! Please share your ideas in the comments and tell what you think about BTC , maybe you have some interesting information that I did not find. This community can help us to make situation is clearer, all we have to do is cooperate.


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Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.

The information given is not a Financial Advise.
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Nice job and call! Accurate
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thank you
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I think we got the answer. It was a nasty bear huehue. Grat TA as always
+1 Reply
Anpu Anoinvest
@Anoinvest, Thanks!
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Great job! I think that we will go down to 9.4k after Bakkt launch, then with sufficient momentum, rocket to 16k in October:)
+1 Reply
Anpu axetech
@axetech, Thank You for comment!
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Anpu axetech
@axetech, I would agree with you! I am waiting a big move in October too! I think now it is better to wait when a big descending triangle will be broken
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Good analyze!
+1 Reply
Anpu Yuriy_Bishko
@Yuriy_Bishko, Thank You!
Reply
Anpu Yuriy_Bishko
@Yuriy_Bishko, Really appreciate it!
Reply
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