Bitcoin - Third Time Lucky Has The Answer!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Being a full time trader, time is a luxury I can afford. Aside from reading books and materials related to my sole occupation, I like to observe the market and come up with patterns or techniques of my own. I have learned to always take a step back every time I get too engrossed with a particular market analysis technique. Never be too dependent on a single technique - be it Gann , Elliott Wave , Wyckoff etc. By drafting different techniques into a chart in various time frames from scratch (absent bias), we get to see a bigger picture of the puzzle. If all those techniques agree on a singular outlook of the trend and target range, then we know that we have a high probability "lock-on".

One of the common things I have noticed from my market observation is that it takes three attempts to breakout from a trend line in any direction most of the time. I called this beginner technique "Third Time Lucky" and is best applied to longer term charts. New traders will find it very easy to use. The rules are simple:

1. Every third breakout attempt from a trend line has the best odds to succeed.
2. A valid attempt is one that touches the trend line or must be in close proximity with it.

As an example, I have applied this technique to the Bitcoin chart above.

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Comment: Despite the triangle (6,000 psychological barrier) was breached, it has yet to be invalidated as price refuses to move lower due to overwhelming buys. If price can climb back above 6,000 for another hour, we can expect a reversal.
Comment: Price quickly recovered to above 6k. The breakout below the triangle has failed. This means Third Time Lucky and the triangle are still "valid".
Comment: Once the price stabilizes around $6,000 and above, we can expect a sideways trend that slowly moves to the green trend line. A retest on that green trend line is what we want to see.
Comment: For the past 14 hours or so, we have been trying to break the resistance (blue line) level and in the process formed a bullish triangle. We should be seeing an upward thrust upward to 6400 area where another seller wall has been formed. I believe bitcoin is ready to test the green trend line at around lower 6500.
Comment: The upward thrust was met with fierce sellout by the market majority that wants to push price lower than what was already all time low this year. Perhaps the invalid second attempt on the tangerine trendline ($6000) should have been taken into account after. Nevertheless, a breakdown from the triangle means previous Wyckoff chart is in full effect. To view that chart, please click below:
Comment: I know that many people are now questioning whether Bitcoin is doomed. When a typical dip like this happen, it is important to keep a cool head, re-assess the situation and determine our next course of action.

In my previous Wyckoff chart titled "Bitcoin Analysis - Textbook Case of Wyckoff Downtrend to $4,800", I have clearly illustrated the possibility of a bearish continuation that would put Bitcoin down to $4800. This dip we are seeing now is not something "new "or "unexpected".

Given that the triangle has now been invalidated, I will post all my new updates through my Wyckoff chart. See you guys there.
Comment: I will honor requests and post new updates here as well. From what I am seeing, $5800 key support level remains strong. I am more overwhelmed by the buyers' appetite than the sellout pressure right now. As I have said earlier, we are ready to "buy the dip" at lower levels but until $5800 breaks we should not rule out a potential reversal that might thrust us back into the triangle above $6000 and possibly higher. This market can flip anytime and when that happens, its movement can be extremely fast.
Comment: And that's the flip I was telling you, boys and girls. We are officially back in business.
Comment: Updated Chart (click to enlarge):
Comment: As the second breakout attempt (#2) on the tangerine trend line has failed, we can see that price is slowly moving up to meet the green trend line. This would be our third breakout attempt on that trend line so there is a good chance that we might breakout from it.
Comment: Hi friends! Here is today's update on BTC. We are approaching a key resistance level where the bull might have trouble penetrating given the lack of volume. If the bull fails, the bears will seize this opportunity to claw price down to retest the regional lows of $5,755 again. Here is an illustration of the BTC 4-Hour chart of what might happen.
Note: I would be cautious and wise to pull out of this market at this level for the time being and re-enter at lower levels. That's all for today. Happy trading everyone!
Trade closed manually: Since this is more of an educational post, I am ending all future updates pertaining to BTC trend development to avoid unnecessary confusion that might arise. This would be my last update to this chart. If you want be kept in the loop about my forecasts, I encourage you to FOLLOW me and check out my latest charts without the "Education" tag.


If you disregard the giant wick on your #1, its sitting at the same exact price that you are saying #2 is "too far" to be considered, even though that point is where the price stuck for the longest time on the trend line of 5800-6.2k. I think its more likely that your #1 is accurate, the #2 is in fact where you are saying it isn't, and #3 is where we currently are. If you notice we touched the resistance, started to move up, and are now retesting the bottom to form a 'double bottom' in this low range (happened today). If you look at the #2 you are not considering, you will notice the same pattern in that range. It touches bottom, pumps up over a few days, then retests that bottom it started, formed a double bottom pattern in that range, and then moved towards 9,800. Using your own 'third time is lucky' scenario, I think we will actually see Bitcoin move back to the height of $6,400-6,600 over the next few days, settle around 6,300 then make the next move towards $8,500.
+4 Reply
icjacobs WasProbJesus
+1 Reply
dlacman WasProbJesus
@WasProbJesus, I really hope so, but I'm afraid we will go lower
Kool_Keith WasProbJesus
@WasProbJesus, Why 8500?
What about the 1 month macd cross guys. I was thinking the bottom would be 5.5 - 6k but after seeing the 1 month macd im shitting the bed. I'm starting to think we can really go to 4.4-4.8k?
cryptoezvip WasProbJesus
@WasProbJesus, if #3 is where we are now (like you said), then the breakout to the downside would have been successful and that is in conflict with your own last paragraph. As of now, price still remains above 6k and this can only mean the breakout below the triangle has failed.
WasProbJesus cryptoezvip
@cryptoezvip, I'm just not sure we want to be picking exact points and prices based on the '3' points of a triple bottom reversal (im assuming we are talking about a triple bottom reversal). The 3 points should just be trading within the same range and be 'close' they don't have to be exact, and typically the '3rd' point before a triple bottom reversal break out, enters a lower range than the prior two points.

We are still trading at the bottom range of that first point (large wick). I'm not only counting the #2 you are not counting because the price range itself, I am counting it because it got close enough in the range for me to consider it the second point. The LARGEST reason I would count it is because a triple bottom reversal typically takes place between 3-5 months (if it goes past 6 months its less likely to occur). Touching the first point on 2/06/2018, we are heading into the 5th month of this on 7/6/2018. If the second point is being formed right now, it would take another 1-2 months to form the third point and we would be breaking out if it in ..August/September (not saying this can't happen). But a more precise triple bottom should occur within a 3-5 month time span. Here we have 3 points in a 5 month window, with the 3rd point now touching the lowest part, when volume reached its low and seems to be turning around. Again, I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm monitoring both outlooks for which has a higher % chance of coming to fruition.
WasProbJesus cryptoezvip
@cryptoezvip, also, the triple bottom reversal and where the price goes/ranges before the breakout (5900-6900) isn't relevant. I was just putting a guess on what the price may do before breaking out. We may sit between 5800-6300 for a week before moving to 7k in 1 day, I can't predict something like that. I'm more interested if Bitcoin can perform a triple bottom reversal in a 5 month window. If it drags on for another month+ in this price range I have a hard time believing we wouldn't drop under $5,500 or worse before moving up.
This is way better chart than most other charts that point in directions without stats or real probabilities! If #2 would be considered a 'touch', than we are doomed as #3 bear touch is happening! Loads of CBOE Futures dates are this month. Last one was yesterday, ended and it looks they achieved their fucking numbers. Next ones are in:

XBT/N8 07/18/2018
XBT/Q8 08/15/2018
XBT/U8 09/19/2018

I can't tell if these are shorts or longs! There is not much info at the CBOE page!
+3 Reply
@G1979, thanks. I will spread my tentacles to see what those were and update here if I know anything further.
+1 Reply
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